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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 08:22:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/11/2009 08:29:08
This is the most detailed PUBLIC AND COMPLETELY VERIFIABLE Dominion market analysis so far. Well, at least as far as I know, anyway... and you don't have to take my word for anything I say below, check and double-check, maybe I actually made some mistakes.
For those interested in getting the full work data, it's available for download in Excel97 and Excel2007 formats below :
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/EVE_Dominion_Office1997.zip (~0.7 MB)
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/EVE_Dominion_Office2007.zip (~ 12 MB)
(no, I won't link them - just copy-paste the address)
NOTES ON DOWNLOADS * the Excel2007 files contain a lot of additional data, and in case any more changes appear on SiSi, they are very easily updated * the Excel97 files can still update some data (including alchemy ratios and market amounts), but the formatting is a bit uglier * the screenshots that will be posted below are all taken from the Excel2007 version
ALCHEMY ADJUSTMENTS
Now, I did also include in the very end one section on alchemy, and that needs a bit of additional explanation.
First off, it's next to impossible to determine the exact alchemy usage, because it depends on too many different factors. Basically, right now, the breakeven point (where you make no money but you lose no money) in alchemy is for price of replacement material ("low_ISK") = price of replaced material ("high_ISK") / the alchemy replacement rate (used to be 20, in dominion it's 5) - one hour's worth of medium tower fuel (used to be 100k or thereabouts) * (alchemyrate-1)/100. At the new alchemy rate and the old fuel costs, that means when low_ISK = (high_ISK/5) - 4000 ISK. Obviously, you want to make a profit or else there's no point in doing alchemy at all, so the price of the "low" material would have to be a bit below break-even value for you to start doing that.
Instead of doing countless calculations, I have implemented a simplified (and therefore not entirely accurate, but then again, what is) system to very roughly estimate the alchemy reactions being done. All you have to do is set a ROUGH price multiplier between low_ISK and high_ISK (the pairings are easily visible and you'll figure which is which) - basically, it makes YOU take a more or less informed guess as to what the maximum price ratios could be between the moon mineral pairs where people would consider starting to do alchemy.
The closer the number is to the alchemy rate, the more likely it is alchemy would start registering as profitable on that particular pair, and the rest is auto-estimated from there (amounts used, time spent, adjusted scarcities, etc). It's by no means fool-proof, but if you play around with those "trigger price ratios", you will see that the overall result is pretty robust and close enough to what actually happens.
WHAT IS BEING ANALYZED
The entire monthly trade of one region is broken down by T2 components, then by moon minerals used in the production of the components. Without knowing which and how many of the items are being sold directly to a customer by manufacturers, moved through a daytrader first, or resold by a previous customer, we have no choice but to assume the traded values are representative of the manufacture process (at least as far as ratios are concerned). Then, the same analysis is made using modified build amounts now live on SiSi, which may or may not be the final Dominion values. Finally, the differences between the current stuation and the upcoming Dominion situation are compared, with emphasis on percentual differences... since the amounts will undoubtedly change a lot after the patch (I'm giving some minor spoilers here - prices will generally go down and volumes up).
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 08:22:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/11/2009 08:24:10
TRUCKLOADS OF DISCLAIMERS
* all market trade data (over one month or better said 30 days) has been visually guesstimated in most cases, manually adding up market history data would have been way too time consuming on top of the already spent time - data should however be fairly accurate, at least ratio-wise (which is the whole point), and within acceptable margins of error
* this is ONLY "THE FORGE" (i.e. Jita) MARKET DATA, so game-wide usage might vary significantly ; however, the only large differences should be observed in racial carbide consumption, most of the rest of the things should be pretty spot-on
* all amounts and times are considered at perfect ME, perfect PE, but no skill nor installation construction time bonuses ; as such, usage amounts will actually be higher (usage ratios however should remain almost identical, only minor discrepancies) ; also, manufacture times will probably be noticeably lower (they're mostly orientative anyway)
* no, I did not check each and every non-ship T2 item, but those I did check were identical ; also, the combined T2 non-ship item T2 component-derived moon mineral usage accounts for less than 15% of most moon minerals (that I found out while filling the tables, feel free to check my statement by editing all ships count to zero on the appropriate sheet), or in other words, even if they did change some, the overall result would be insignificant
* yes, I did go on SiSi, and I did manually update each and every ship T2 component count * yes, I did take into account the fact the blueprints are at 0 ME not perfect build (if you open the Excel2007 file you should notice the auto-calcs) * yes, I did check most other T2 component blueprints, not just the racial armor plates, only the racial armor plates were changed (to 25 sec base build time instead of 150 and 10 sylramic instead of 30)
* the default assumption was that similar "in-game-value rarity" moon minerals are actually available for potential moon-mining in roughly the same amounts, and that the ratios of available moons respect the inverse baseprice ratios (i.e. there's 16 times more platinum moons than neodymium moons, and there are roughly the same number of neodymium moons as thulium moons, etc) * ovbiously, if this is NOT the case, the results should be pretty off on the "scarcity" calculations (and if you are to believe the prices we had the past two years, one can only assume EITHER that there's far less dysprosium moons compared to promethium moons OR that somebody is hoarding massive amounts of dysprosium for manipulation purposes) - no matter which is the actual thing happening, you really have to take this peculiarity into account
END OF BIG DISCLAIMERS
Just a reminder... Jita only accounts for a small-to-moderate percentage of the total game-wide T2 item trade volume (8% minimum, 20% maximum). However, it accounts for a very high percentage of moon minerals and advanced materials (?40%-80%?) and a significant percentage of T2 component trade (?20%-50%?). Try to keep that in mind when you look at the numbers "used up" per region via traded items and you compare them to the volumes of precursor materials traded in Jita on a regular basis.
Well, enough about all of this, I suppose you are waiting for actual numbers, eh ? Ok then, next post is mostly about numbers !
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 08:22:00 -
[3]
All following numbers assume that roughly the same number of items will be traded after Dominion hits. Obviously, it's not an accurate assessment, but the ratios of T2 item usage should remain roughly valid. I have already covered this in more detail in the posts above, so it would be pointless to repeat the same thing again. Bottom line, everything here is orientative.
Link to image : advanced materials now
Link to image : advanced materials in Dominion
As you can notice, there's a sharp drop in Fermionic Condensate usage (no surprise, that was the whole point of the Dominion changes) to less than a QUARTER of its previous usage levels ; at the same time, the drop in Ferrogel is much more mild, to roughly TWO THIRDS of its previous usage level. All carbides/carbonide roughly TRIPLE in usage, same as nanotransistors, while sylramic fibers "only" DOUBLE in usage.
Interesting to note that the total manufacturing time is not severely affected, thanks to the heavy reduction in racial armor plate manufacture time.
The POS reactor time nearly doubles however, especially that for complex reactions, and this is actually more or less a good thing, since Dominion will very likely see a lot of 0.0 POSes facing dismantling because they're no longer useful for sov-claiming... at least this way you could put some of the med/large POSes out there to good use reacting.
Link to image : moon mineral breakdown now
It's no big surprise that dysprosium and promethium take the lion's share, but, again, as mentioned before already, one has to wonder why the heck promethium is not more expensive than dysprosium (in market-price reality it's the complete opposite), and also how come neodymium isn't noticeably more expensive.
Link to image : moon mineral breakdown in Dominion
Notice how NOT ONLY the percentage of dysprosium and promethium out of the "total moon mineral basket" has gone down, but actual number of units used up has also plummeted for both, so what USED to be a heavy bottleneck should be almost completely removed... at least theoretically, the production capabilities of the game (as far as dysprosium and promethium is concerned) should nearly double. Now, one has to wonder however if the neodymium won't become the new bottleneck... still, there should be vast amounts of stockpiles of neodymium from back when it was severely underpriced, so I don't see any significant issues for the immediate future... and then there's the new and radically improved alchemy to the rescue.
Most other lowends are significantly boosted in relative importance, in particular scandium, tungsten, cobalt and titanium which, to be honest, really needed it. The fact the "moon junk" (gasses and such) also get somewhat of a boost is nice, but all in all not that relevant since the price for those will be set by the fuel costs anyway... still, it makes reactor placement on a moon where you can get at least some of the materials locally a relatively decent target to strive for, which is always a plus.
All in all, I'd have to say, it looks pretty good.
Now... the stuff I kept talking about, the alchemy adjustments... in the next post.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 08:23:00 -
[4]
So, here's how the moon mineral usage looks like after you TRY to estimate just how much (and if) some of the "linked" moon minerals are involved in alchemy reactions.
Like I warned several times already... this is highly EXPERIMENTAL and the numbers you see below should not be taken as "this is how it is". At best, it's a very, VERY rough guideline, to give you a general idea of the influence on scarcities (and therefore prices) of the materials involved in alchemy.
Link to image : estimated situation now including alchemy
I have actually set absurdly high rates for "alchemy profitability" in the "current situation" scenario... but I have done this becase, let's face it, not many people have been bothering with alchemy. Still, to my surprise, it does indicate that chromium->promethium and cadmium->dysprosium are not only just profitable, but profitable for quite a lot of people (over one thousand alchemy POSes could probably be in use right now to account just for the Jita usage).
By the way, yes, if you do set alchemy profitability ratios the same as the alchemy rate, you should notice how the modified scarcity of the moon mineral pairs equalizes. Of course, in reality, it's never like that, and profitability ratio is higher than alchemy ratio (I have explained why, and also given the breakeven price formula in one of the above posts).
Link to image : estimated situation including alchemy in Dominion
I tried to be conservative in my estimates, but I might have actually been TOO conservative. In reality, the alchemy profitability ratio for platinum->neodymium could eventually reach a value as low as 6, or even 5.5, not just the estimated 8... in which case, the need for neodymium will drop radically, and the need for platinum will increase heavily.
All in all, I would say that the system is pretty decently self-regulating, however that will also mean platinum could see (LONG-TERM only) an astonishingly high price increase... say, something up to the tune of 15k per unit at worst, probably less than 10k though. Short-term however, that will not be a problem - unless speculation strikes - the neodymium (and neodymium-related) stocks should be relatively high, so but given the volumes involved, speculators will either have to wait a long time to see a big profit, or get a small profit and not drive price up too fast.
Another issue, the only reason you see a sharp drop in percentages for cadmium is that it's no longer all that profitable to react at the chosen alchemy ratios post-Dominion compared to current ratios, so even if the raw usage is actually going up, the (ESTIMATED) alchemy usage is going down much more. Again, as stated, I might have underestimated the profitable alchemy ratios, so cadmium could just as well stay put or even go up, depending where price of everything else stabilizes (and also depending on POS hourly operating costs post-Dominion).
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 08:23:00 -
[5]
In conclusion, even if nothing changes on SiSi anymore, I can say that I am generally happy with the way things look for the markets : * moon-mineral bulk value spread across more minerals (5 to 7 instead of just 2 like before)... so the bottlenecks are at least temporarily alleviated, and higher volumes can start flowing *** all are relatively decent, with the exception of poor, poor THULIUM, which got the very short end of the stick this time around (as if it didn't have it bad enough already). * no radical manufacture slot time increase, so no radical additional overhead * needed reactor times increase, which compensates to some degree for the upcoming "uselessness" of 0.0 POSes
Of course, some things could just as well change on SiSi by tomorrow, so I'd have to restart the analysis. Well, ok, not restart, just slightly adjust... but all the nice pictures and stuff won't be all that appropriate anymore :P
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 08:30:00 -
[6]
Reserved for additional question, comments, responses or whatnot.
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Kuolematon
Space Perverts and Forum Warriors United
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Posted - 2009.11.02 08:31:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Kuolematon on 02/11/2009 08:31:39 Nice info .. and first?
"The Amarr are the tanking and ganking floating rods of goldcrap"
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 09:21:00 -
[8]
Everybody else that read it most likely either went speechless and had nothing to add, or they're playing with the spreadsheets right now
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.02 09:27:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Akita T Everybody else that read it most likely either went speechless and had nothing to add, or they're playing with the spreadsheets right now
No, we're in Jita buying Thulium. (or was that Technetium? - I always get them mixed up)
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Signore Kaeota
Caldari Caelum Incognitum
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Posted - 2009.11.02 09:41:00 -
[10]
I'm looking for the pain killers; I have a head ache now
Nice write up Akita, seriously lot of data though (probably doesn't help that I have no idea how alchemy works :P ) -_-_-_-
I, Signore Kaeota, hereby apologise for any and all offence caused by the contents of this above post, and all others that I have written, or otherwise been responsible for.
-_-_-_ |
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.02 09:43:00 -
[11]
Nice data.
never stop posting...with alts. Doucheski is the best douche. Mittani alt says hi. For the honor of spit stained basement dwelling virgins. |
Aresse
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Posted - 2009.11.02 09:57:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Akita T Everybody else that read it most likely either went speechless and had nothing to add, or they're playing with the spreadsheets right now
Mainly speechless.
So, I guess I should start stocking up on slyramic fibers then. Unless I'm reading that backwards.
.../me runs to place some POSes at Chromium moons.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.02 10:03:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Signore Kaeota I have no idea how alchemy works :P )
Haha, me too, I always skip any info about that.
Just wanted to also thank Akita for this amazing post. I'm getting all psyched up about speculations I didn't consider a week ago.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 10:09:00 -
[14]
You have to consider the fact that the old bottlenecks are shifted/reduced, so the "basket price" of moon minerals will also shift (downwards, but by how much, that's yet another question I can't answer with absolute certainty)... it makes things a bit more complicated especially since at this time stockpiles of materials, pre-speculated false scarcity which will now pop (or not) and other such things that could tweak the end results... those are mostly an unknown quantity.
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zzCoins
UK1 Zero
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Posted - 2009.11.02 10:16:00 -
[15]
"one has to wonder why the heck promethium is not more expensive than dysprosium (in market-price reality it's the complete opposite), and also how come neodymium isn't noticeably more expensive." This shows that your calculation of supply/demand contains a substantial error. Dysp is historically twice the price of Prom, whereas your analysys shows it should be cheaper.
"let's face it, not many people have been bothering with alchemy." Almost all the Cadmium moons owners that I know of, tell me that they do alchemy. I think most Cadmium and Cromium is currently used for alehemy.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 11:04:00 -
[16]
Originally by: zzCoins "one has to wonder why the heck promethium is not more expensive than dysprosium (in market-price reality it's the complete opposite), and also how come neodymium isn't noticeably more expensive." This shows that your calculation of supply/demand contains a substantial error. Dysp is historically twice the price of Prom, whereas your analysys shows it should be cheaper.
The last group of the "big disclaimer" post section already addresses that, presenting possible reasons as to why that is. You're not saying anything that I haven't already said, and you can be quite sure that other MD regulars can corroborate the data - IF promethium and dysprosium moons would be both equally available and exploited by people who price-gouge at the same rate, promethium would be more expensive than dysprosium. The two possible reasons why that's not the case are either a vast disparity in exploitable moons or a player-alliance-orchestrated artificial scarcity campaign. Which one of those two scenarios is true (or if the truth is a bit of both), only a CCP employee with "data mining" rights could find out - meanwhile, the only remaining option for us (the people with limited knowledge) is to not look at absolute percentages, but instead at percentage changes, because those should keep being affected by the same factors - which is EXACTLY the whole point of this entire analysis, to auto-compensate for those disparities.
Quote: "let's face it, not many people have been bothering with alchemy." Almost all the Cadmium moons owners that I know of, tell me that they do alchemy. I think most Cadmium and Cromium is currently used for alchemy.
You can have at most around 80% of the total Cadmium/Chromium production used up in alchemy, even if you go by a "I operate the POS at zero cost because I mine the ice myself" and react for a loss (to see that hypothetical situation, set "alchemy profitability ratio" equal to the actual alchemy ratio. In THAT completely absurd case, you still have only around 2500 alchemy POSes running, which account for only an equivalent 125 hours of normal reactions, out of roughly 3300 normal reaction POSes and 1300 complex ones (or in fuel terms, 2600+ equivalent simple ones). Also, in that absurd situation, you would see long-term equilibrium price ratios between chromium/cadmium and dysprosium/promethium of close to 1:20, which you DON'T see in reality. Basically, at a never-reasonable absolute absurd maximum, that's 3 out of 10 "equivalent" POSes (fuel-wise) that do alchemy - THAT is what I meant by "not many people".
Coincidentally, the "before dominion" alchemy screenshot shows around 55% of used chromium and 72% of used cadmium being shoved into alchemy reactions, for a grand total of 1127 alchemy POSes (or, 16 out of 100 fuel-equivalent reaction POSes are alchemy POSes). So, yeah, you are correct in that most Cadmium/Chromium _IS_ mainly being used for alchemy right now, however, speaking long-term sustainable chains, alchemy reactions POSes are not that common compared to regular reaction POSes - and, again, THAT is what I meant when I said "not many people". 16%-30% of "total reaction effort" does not "many" make, at least not in my book. "Some", at best, but not "many".
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Vhiskey
Caldari Imperial Forces
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Posted - 2009.11.02 11:37:00 -
[17]
Sickita T
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.02 11:44:00 -
[18]
Incredible work Akita, absolutely fantastic
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info specialist
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Posted - 2009.11.02 11:53:00 -
[19]
Nice write up and analysis Akita. We agree on many aspects and I disagree with a couple, but that would be expected.
We could openly discuss them but that would be giving away too much of my own analysis and predictions. My RL company I work for spent too much money developing the programs and application for this kind of stuff. It's bad enough I am using them for free.
Just a side note though.... I love games like this that are deep in content and strategy. Good job CCP.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 12:46:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/11/2009 12:52:52
Well, I spent about three days on it doing some other things meanwhile too, so if it's generally pushing out mostly similar answers to some expensive analysis software, I'd say I'm generally fine with that much accuracy. Besides, I can tell everybody exactly what I did, and can put a finger and tell you what everything is, while on the other hand you're somewhat reserved even for something as direct as the points you disagree on, so...
...anyway, I'm fully aware this is only orientative (especially the alchemy part), so I am sure that if somebody tries hard enough they could find plenty of flaws ("ratios estimated for alchemy profitability too far off", "why use that formula for alchemy trigger instead of something else", "why not adjust for new perceived bottleneck also", "why not attempt to calculate prices too", "what about items that usually resell vs items that are normally consumed" and so on and so forth). Problem with all of those is "I can't know, so I can only try to estimate". And everybody else around here, feel free to volunteer additional informations, make estimates about, well, anything, and pool our brains together to see what gets out of it (if anything). I've done the grunt work already, did preliminary formatting and estimates, the rest is all yours (the general public) - you have all the data I have, exactly as I have it.
P.S. For instance - if anybody has a "game-wide moon count", please do post it. What I mean by that is simply "total number of moons for each material" (and maybe also total number of moons scanned), for as much space as you have knowledge of, from any possible source. Not locations, just totals (and leave out the bottom 8 moon minerals, those are irrelevant, if a moon only has those, you can list it as "empty" ; only the top 12 moon minerals are important)... per entire constellation, per entire region, per entire game, whatever you have, if you have it.
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Cadde
Gallente 221st Century Warfare
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Posted - 2009.11.02 13:25:00 -
[21]
Just a note for it being The Forge markets only. eve-central.com has a nightly data dump you can use, if you import this into SQL and do this in code you wouldn't have to manually gather data. However, this is just my way of doing things. You might not have that option...
Either way, if you would want something along those lines then feel free to contact me and it can assist you free of charge in mining that data and making useful calculations if you provide the formulas you want to run and whatnot.
DISCLAIMER:
It's quite possible your requests will be beyond my abilities but i at the very least offer to try.
My opinions belong to me, you can't have them!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 14:23:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Cadde Just a note for it being The Forge markets only. eve-central.com has a nightly data dump you can use, if you import this into SQL and do this in code you wouldn't have to manually gather data. However, this is just my way of doing things. You might not have that option...
The problem with eve-central is that all data is based on user-reported orders, with no actual transaction history. Some items might not have been uploaded at all except some remote regions, other items might have been selectively loaded only in some regions, orders that expired could register as transactions done and so on and so forth. I'd much rather extrapolate the entire game world's transaction from certain Jita historic transaction volumes than try to import the hand-picked data from eve-central.
Quote: Either way, if you would want something along those lines then feel free to contact me and it can assist you free of charge in mining that data and making useful calculations if you provide the formulas you want to run and whatnot.
The only calculation/estimation I need is this : total (average/estimated/approximate) number of units (batches) traded in one month (30 days), for each and every T2 item that can be manufactured. Right now, my spreadsheets contain that data (there's a monthly total estimate for every last one), but only for "The Forge" region, not the entire game.
Quote: It's quite possible your requests will be beyond my abilities but i at the very least offer to try.
I'm not sure I could get that data in a reliable fashion via EVE-Central.
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Cadde
Gallente 221st Century Warfare
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Posted - 2009.11.02 15:00:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Akita T Stuff
Fair enough. It's just something i feel is off when looking at one market only such as Jita which isn't even close to representing an universe average. Also, I'm pretty sure eve-central doesn't count expired orders as volume traded. Each order has an orderID and that is what is used to track what is moving. If that orderID expires it isn't counted as a transaction. The problem is that it's random windows looking into the market and they are opened at random times. But i still feel they represent a far better average than looking at Jita because Jita is it's own market in eve. Everything outside The Forge is pretty much unrelated to Jita prices. As soon as you come into Forge you see a whole different market.
My opinions belong to me, you can't have them!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 16:18:00 -
[24]
Non-ship T2 items account for about 1/6 of the total material consumption for Jita trade, so even if the item market would be vastly different in other regions, it can't be that far off to make a significant dent in the true overall ratios compared to what you see in Jita only. As for ships, I seriously doubt people "somewhere else" buy a truckload more interceptors and absolutely no command ships to make a difference... anyway, other than the racial carbides, ships of the same class have roughly the same advanced material make-up ; not just that, but even across ship sizes/roles, advanced material make-up is pretty similar, so again, all of this could have easily been solved by taking one random ship in each size class and making a weighted average, the end ratios would also have been pretty close to what you see.
But, if you like, feel free to take one of the spreadsheets, then * either extract JUST the "T2 item - market volume" area (it's colored differently, it should be easy to notice) and parse whatever source you like and fill in the volumes you prefer for any number of sources or regions, then I'll reintegrate that data in the sheets and see how each individual batch and the sum of all batches looks like (percentually speaking) compared to what it's already inside now * or just fill in the existing data, adding separate source/region data directly into the spreadsheet and watch the totals change in real-time
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.11.02 17:17:00 -
[25]
You went to the component level, why not ship level?
When I created my analysis years ago I came across the issue of day traders. The amount of ships sold over the space of 2-3 months was no where near the amount of components sold. Which is why in the end I used ship movement as the base of consumption. While I imagine some ships are purchased and resold it's no where near the amount that is components and reactions where. Just so you know, it can be as much as four times the component and reaction movement compared to actual consumption in ships.
Amarr for Life |
Noonesoski
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Posted - 2009.11.02 17:33:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Akita T percentually
Is that even a word?
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Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.02 18:56:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Noonesoski
Originally by: Akita T percentually
Is that even a word?
It's Akita T. He is allowed to make up words on a whim.
But percental might be closer to what you are looking for.
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Protheroe
UMEC
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Posted - 2009.11.02 19:25:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Akita T P.S. For instance - if anybody has a "game-wide moon count", please do post it.
There are at least 126 Dysprosium and 179 Promethium moons. Those numbers include all of empire and most of 0.0, with complete counts for the major high-end moon regions. I think the total numbers are probably not more than 20% higher.
The higher number of promethium moons may partly explain the historically lower price compared to dysprosium.
Sorry I can't help with the other materials. |
TheLordofAllandNothing
Caldari United Systems Navy Zenith Affinity
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Posted - 2009.11.02 22:15:00 -
[29]
Any ideas how the jump freighter market will be affected by the dominion changes? more expensive? cheaper? etc.
_______________________ Fix rockets in '09 =( |
Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
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Posted - 2009.11.02 23:25:00 -
[30]
Originally by: TheLordofAllandNothing Any ideas how the jump freighter market will be affected by the dominion changes? more expensive? cheaper? etc.
Devs have stated that JF build costs are not going to be tweaked, unlike most of the other T2 ships. So the best answer is probably obtained via analysis similar to Akita's. --- 34.4:1 mineral compression ISRC Racing, Season 7 - schedule |
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.03 02:49:00 -
[31]
You are such a big *MORON*, Akita! Why-oh-why do you have to screw my fun? Just why you do that? I'll remember this for years to come.
Heh, in fact, I was out into RL schedule when 1st wave of market speculation was on its way. Disappointed, I started to breaking down the new raw moon mineral requirement based on ship transaction volume. I really wanted to know how high each material could shoot up. (*I have to be cautious here that it is based on transaction # on forge region. The number of actual t2 ship manufacturing job finished is not really known to me. but.. is it to you? )
And I can attest that Akita's result, "moon mineral breakdown in Dominion" (the one w/o alchemy in) matches very closely with mine. ( that means component transaction based analysis is in line w/ ship transaction based analysis. Hope this answers SencneS's question.)
So, there isn't much to add from me but here is what I believe.
1st) Alchemy is very much in question. I just don't know how many actually bother to do that. Even if CCP boosts it up 400%, you still have to take other factors into account; defense, and logistics. In order for an alchemy process to successfully run, enough amount of pairing R32 must be supplied and that is, let me tell ya, P.A.I.N. Plus, +1 silo and +1 simple reactor reduces POS defense so unless you are w/ 24/7 ready-to-dispatch defense fleet, you'd better off just mining the particular moon material. And that's what ppl do out there. Plus no-alchemy does not necessarily mean less profit to make.
2nd) I don't recall who it is, but someone said in a plex thread said 'a grand market manipulation only works when there is genuine demand'. The ages of Dys/Prom manipulation is completely over. The price won't go down that easy b/c they are in almost complete control, but the longer you sit in those market, the more you will likely loose. Thus, no. Dys/Prom do not affect the price of t2 ships anymore. (If you still doubt about it, watch what happens after Dec. 1)
Then, I'm daring to say we have only 1, yes only *one* switch that could effectively turn up the price of all t2 ship across the board. Yes, that is Neodymium.
Why so? simple. Nanotransistors<-Neodymium, Sylramic Fibers <- Platinum, and here comes the golden pair, Neodymium <-Alchemy-> Platinum. So let's say Neodymium hits 50k pu. What will happen to platinum and what will happen to Sylramic Fibers? When I found out that besides increased total reaction time, my jaw dropped on floor.
However, t2 ships will become cheaper. It is especially true after quick sylramic fibers fix. but it will take some painful time to get there.
Oh, btw, you really think that you do well so far? do you? nothing to say at this moment. |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.03 02:57:00 -
[32]
Well, in fact, Akita's first analysis on sisi's alchemy change did not highlight neodymium that much. so ppl just went berserk on Sylramic Fibers.
Two words, Damn funny nothing to say at this moment. |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.03 03:21:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. For instance - if anybody has a "game-wide moon count", please do post it. Exploitable moons only, of course... those in areas you can't anchor a harvester might as well be empty. What I mean by that is simply "total number of moons for each material" (and maybe also total number of moons scanned), for as much space as you have knowledge of, from any possible source. Not locations, just totals (and leave out the bottom 8 moon minerals and maybe even thulium, caesium and vanadium, those are next to irrelevant - if a moon only has those, you can add it to the total of "empty" moons ; only the other top 10 moon minerals are important, and dysp/prom/neod are the 3 most relevant ones, with plat/chro/cadm the next 3 most relevant ones, with technetium and mercury close behind, the remaining two are meh-so-so)... per entire constellation, per entire region, per entire game, whatever you have, if you have it.
google "moon map project" it contains 99.9% of all moon material spread out in entire lowsec. It shall give you a good idea as to how moon minerals are assigned. nothing to say at this moment. |
Amarr Citizen 155
Tleilex Developments Mostly Harmless
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Posted - 2009.11.03 03:45:00 -
[34]
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Akita T Everybody else that read it most likely either went speechless and had nothing to add, or they're playing with the spreadsheets right now
No, we're in Jita buying Thulium. (or was that Technetium? - I always get them mixed up)
I'm so confused by all the data I skipped right to buying anything and everything.....let the isk flow! Titan BPC Auction Thread |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.11.03 03:49:00 -
[35]
What is interesting about this data is that there was probably more money to be made on pre-patch speculation a few weeks ago, than the actual patch itself.
It is always key to be first to interpret the new patch data.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.03 07:12:00 -
[36]
Originally by: cosmoray What is interesting about this data is that there was probably more money to be made on pre-patch speculation a few weeks ago, than the actual patch itself.
It is always key to be first to interpret the new patch data.
This is part of the table posted above.
before
dysprosium 21.60% promethium 28.00% neodymium 14.03%
after
dysprosium 12.45% promethium 15.24% neodymium 25.24%
I hope this rings a bell to you. nothing to say at this moment. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 07:28:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Noonesoski
Originally by: Akita T percentually
Is that even a word?
Now it is
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
Originally by: TheLordofAllandNothing Any ideas how the jump freighter market will be affected by the dominion changes? more expensive? cheaper? etc.
Devs have stated that JF build costs are not going to be tweaked, unlike most of the other T2 ships. So the best answer is probably obtained via analysis similar to Akita's.
Just a note on JFs - they were already very carbide-heavy, so there was no need to tweak them further. In fact, you could say all ships were tweak to match the JF ratios
Originally by: xylopia Well, in fact, Akita's first analysis on sisi's alchemy change did not highlight neodymium that much. so ppl just went berserk on Sylramic Fibers. Two words, Damn funny
My first analysis was based on just the moon-mineral make-up of one single ship type (Marauders), and it was a very rough approximation. Obviously, it couldn't have had highlighted everything unless I had everything in (and now I do)
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.03 07:47:00 -
[38]
Originally by: Akita T
My first analysis was based on just the moon-mineral make-up of one single ship type (Marauders), and it was a very rough approximation. Obviously, it couldn't have had highlighted everything unless I had everything in (and now I do)
I'm not saying your analysis was wrong or anything. I'm saying ppl go blindly on things w/o their own research is ridiculous to me. In fact, I was amazed by the fact that you grab very quickly the would-be t2 material market situation w/ breaking down just one ship. It was good job in any engineer's term and work-efficiency wise. When I found out what you just posted about a while ago, it took me about two days and I was very glad that I knew not so many ppl knew.
Well, there are few more very interesting things right off your analysis , but I'd just like to hear from you why CCP would like to stir up the big pond. I have my own reasoning but a person w/ more public credit make a better stand. nothing to say at this moment. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 08:03:00 -
[39]
Originally by: xylopia google "moon map project" it contains 99.9% of all moon material spread out in entire lowsec. It shall give you a good idea as to how moon minerals are assigned.
Found the old thread, and found Wolari's mention that he included them all in his map site. http://evemaps.dotlan.net/region/moons The 0.0 regions however, only 12 have decent coverage, the rest almost not at all... that's basically roughly half of EVE covered. Theoretically, that should be enough for a statistical analysis _IF_ moon-mineral distribution would be more or less even, but when you look at the totals per region, you can see the heavy disparities between each individual "valuable" minerals. However, the regions that are in "high demand" (i.e. those usually fought over by historically powerful alliance blocs) tend to have pretty poor coverage there, and there's a very good chance those are precisely the regions with heavy numbers of moon minerals we're interested in.
Still, it's a start... and I did sum those all up...
Like Protheroe mentioned (he probably had the exact same source), out of those moons that are "public knowledge" (and assuming nobody fed in false data), there's at least 135 dysprosium and 179 promethium moons... in the roughly 50% mapped region of space.
Here's the full breakdown according to dotlan...
135dysprosium(21.4%of BP256,1.17%of grand total) 179promethium(28.3%of BP256,1.56%of grand total) 195neodymium(30.9%of BP256,1.69%of grand total) 123thulium(19.5%of BP256,1.07%of grand total) 230technetium(36.4%of BP64,2.00%of grand total) 349mercury(55.2%of BP64,3.03%of grand total) 473hafnium(74.8%of BP64,4.11%of grand total) 246caesium(38.9%of BP64,2.14%of grand total) 887platinum(140.3%of BP16,7.71%of grand total) 735chromium(116.3%of BP16,6.39%of grand total) 713cadmium(112.8%of BP16,6.20%of grand total) 602vanadium(95.3%of BP16,5.23%of grand total) 1381scandium(218.5%of BP8,12.00%of grand total) 1863tungsten(294.8%of BP8,16.19%of grand total) 2429cobalt(384.3%of BP8,21.11%of grand total) 965titanium(152.7%of BP8,8.39%of grand total)
632total BP256(5.49%of grand total) 1298total BP64(11.28%of grand total) 2937total BP16(25.53%of grand total) 6638total BP8(57.70%of grand total)
11505total known moons
I'll make an alternate spreadsheet version based on THIS rarity spread only, see how that looks
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 08:49:00 -
[40]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 08:51:26
Hmmz, from the initial adjusted rarities, the preliminary (pre-alchemy) situation looks ALMOST IDENTICAL to what we have seen so far, price-wise. It appears that those 50% of scans were actually pretty damn representative of the overall moon distribution, so things will be radically changing... give me a couple more minutes to finish
P.S. It also means something else : that CCP has been tacitly selling us bullcrap with regards to the moon mineral rarity, as implied by moon mineral base values. But I guess we're the only ones to be blamed for that, eh ?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 09:25:00 -
[41]
Ok, first off, the initial screenshots (those of advanced materials usage) will not be changing, since, well, there's nothing to change there. They remain valid, so I won't be re-posting them.
Now, here's the updated full Office2007 version : http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/EVE_Dominion_v2_Office2007.zip (Linkage)
And here are the screenshots...
(Link to image : no alchemy)
Now you see what I meant by "holy **** technetium"...
And here's with alchemy... Link to image : with alchemy
Yeah...
...my thoughts exactly.
I can only assume that the moon sample we collected so far is not completely representative of what we see in EVE if we look at all regions combined... but... the sample DID have a lot more technetium moons compared to mercury and hafnium, so I suppose it's kind of screwed-up if things are actually like this...
All hail our new Technetium overlords !
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 10:39:00 -
[42]
Based on that, I'd say CCP has just a few options now :
1) they could decrease racial microprocessor usage (or at least amount of nanotransistors needed from, say, 5 to 3 or even just 2), the positive side-effect here would be a reduction in mercury usage (which is also a big contender currently, almost on par with promethium!) -- but that also reduces neodymium usage a bit (depending how much of what you reduce) among other things... so you shouldn't cut those TOO much, or else prom/dysp re-become the bottlenecks
2) they could decrease racial capacitor units usage (or amount of fullerides needed in them from, say, 15 to 7-8 or just even 5), and to be honest that would be just fine since the only other valuable material used there is platinum, which you'll be needing for "instead of neodymium" alchemy
A combination of 1+2 would work somewhat fine, IMO, but you're still looking at some weird stuff here... so here come the heavy-duty options
3) introduce a whole new set of alchemy reactions, at even better rates (say, 1:3 er even 1:2), but for scandium/tungsten/cobalt/titanium -> technetium/mercury/hafnium/caesium
4) scrap the entire current reaction chain and start from scratch
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising IT Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.03 11:09:00 -
[43]
Quote:
4) scrap the entire current reaction chain and start from scratch
This.
When a company openly admits they borked it hard (no, I won't link where they state that, no time and just do your *** homeworks (not aimed to Akita ofc)) and when their own players show more knowledge and even care than them, then it's time to fix the reasons why this is left to happen.
IE once it becomes publicly stated how alchemy values were derived from the inflated values of the long time exploit, *the next day* the alchemy values should have been changed. Not a duct tape approach that is nice as Minmatar roleplay but has really no place in a professional MMO. - Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.03 11:27:00 -
[44]
Originally by: Akita T Based on that, I'd say CCP has just a few options now :
1) they could decrease racial microprocessor usage (or at least amount of nanotransistors needed from, say, 5 to 3 or even just 2), the positive side-effect here would be a reduction in mercury usage (which is also a big contender currently, almost on par with promethium!) -- but that also reduces neodymium usage a bit (depending how much of what you reduce) among other things... so you shouldn't cut those TOO much, or else prom/dysp re-become the bottlenecks
2) they could decrease racial capacitor units usage (or amount of fullerides needed in them from, say, 15 to 7-8 or just even 5), and to be honest that would be just fine since the only other valuable material used there is platinum, which you'll be needing for "instead of neodymium" alchemy
A combination of 1+2 would work somewhat fine, IMO, but you're still looking at some weird stuff here... so here come the heavy-duty options
3) introduce a whole new set of alchemy reactions, at even better rates (say, 1:3 er even 1:2), but for scandium/tungsten/cobalt/titanium -> technetium/mercury/hafnium/caesium
4) scrap the entire current reaction chain and start from scratch
I'd vote for #3 but given the amount of time we have b4 Dec 1, I'd say we'll most likely see #1. If CCP go that way, Neo's potential value decreases a bit but it still is a significant boost anyway.
And I haven't been able to notice Technetium. Awesome work there. For me, as soon as I saw the whole line of nano-neo-plat boost from my work, I lost my mind over buying up those.
What I see is CCP wants to shuffle the whole moon values, and put 'em in an imbalance so that big guys go after moons they've put aside such as neo. So it's also possible that CCP would just let go of the current version of patch @ Sisi. That would definitely cause new political shape to emerge along the new sov mechanism. After all eve needs bloodbath, crushed bones, hammered meat, and, most of all, jaw-dropping dramas so more ppl to come subscribe. nothing to say at this moment. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 13:36:00 -
[45]
Considering they already changed the racial armor plate sylramic fiber need from 30 to 10 (well, ok, they also bumped up plates usage hugely), it's not completely unlikely they might also change the racial capacitors to take less fullerides (especially since fulleride need would have otherwise gone up in Dominion).
So, I guess they'll probably do a bit of both with a twist : * tone down the microprocessors by -25% or so (still noticeably more than what we have on TQ) * INCREASE racial capacitor usage by around 20% to compensate for the drop in microprocessors * reduce fullerides from 15 to 5 or thereabouts
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Vhiskey
Caldari Imperial Forces
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Posted - 2009.11.03 13:52:00 -
[46]
ccp again missed a chance
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 14:26:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Akita T So, I guess they'll probably do a bit of both with a twist : * tone down the microprocessors by -25% or so (still noticeably more than what we have on TQ) * INCREASE racial capacitor usage by around 20% to compensate for the drop in microprocessors * reduce fullerides from 15 to 5 or thereabouts
GAAH, that wouldn't do much good either Technetium does indeed get closer to neodymium like that, but it's still over... and worse, CHROMIUM jumps above technetium in rarity...
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Verite Rendition
Caldari F.R.E.E. Explorer Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.11.03 15:23:00 -
[48]
Edited by: Verite Rendition on 03/11/2009 15:25:52 Akita, I highly doubt your moon data is correct for the R32s.
1) They're racially distributed. Gurista space is heavy on Technetium (Deklein: 19 Tech, 2 Caes, 0 Haf/Merc; don't trust Dotlan), etc.
2) R32s are under-reported because they're generally worth so little.
I don't have any reason to believe there are as few Technetium moons as you list. I'd expect all of the R32s to be around in equal numbers. ---- FREE Explorer Lead Megalomanic EVE Null-Sec Player Influence Map http://dl1.eve-files.com/media/corp/Veritefw/FWinf |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.03 15:38:00 -
[49]
Edited by: xylopia on 03/11/2009 15:40:03 From my point of view, this whole t2 material change is just as significant as anything CCP would bring up in Dominion. For example take a look at how ppl come head to head over AF boost. That's just insane. Tbh, this...is more than that...isn't it? ask yourself. A lot more ppl need to step in moon mineral/reaction business, and all those untouched r8 moons need more loving care from players. Is it feasible in realistic sense? Dunno...You can see how chaotic the t2 market will be...
Otherwise we'll all witness a historical shortage of adv materials.
Naturally, I expected some sort of forum up-roar from alliance people about how this patch is unfair, imbalanced, CCP-malfunction, fail cascade and what-not, but it is dead quite except some arguments over how CVA could benefit from this patch and "oh, t2 ship will get cheapo again, Hooray!". nada. none.
I don't think it is about who's smart or not. It's more likely, in my theory, ppl care more about how this game "looks" rather than how this "works". So there's nothing to blame CCP for. CCP reacts exactly the way they need to. I suppose.
Anyway, I presumed I could just sit back and relax... ... nothing to say at this moment. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 16:20:00 -
[50]
Originally by: Verite Rendition Akita, I highly doubt your moon data is correct for the R32s. They're racially distributed. Gurista space is heavy on Technetium (Deklein: 19 Tech, 2 Caes, 0 Haf/Merc; don't trust Dotlan), etc.
I certainly hope so, then it would be great ...but for some reason (explained below) I have a bad feeling that you might not be right.
Quote: I don't have any reason to believe there are as few Technetium moons as you list. I'd expect all of the R32s to be around in equal numbers.
Well, if that was true for some reason, then you'd also expect dysprosium/promethium/neodymium moons to be around in equal numbers too (why only spread the "less valuable" moons evenly but the most valuable not?)... and in that case, the INITIAL analysis is the correct one (that on the first page). However, as you can see, the numbers after I plugged in the moon count reported by dotlan matches more or less the actual prices of materials we were seeing on the market (high rarity -> high price), therefore I must regretfully consider that distribution as far more accurate than hypothetical numbers based on alleged rarity reported by CCP at some distant point in the past...
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.03 17:35:00 -
[51]
Edited by: Turiel Demon on 03/11/2009 17:37:23
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Akita T So, I guess they'll probably do a bit of both with a twist : * tone down the microprocessors by -25% or so (still noticeably more than what we have on TQ) * INCREASE racial capacitor usage by around 20% to compensate for the drop in microprocessors * reduce fullerides from 15 to 5 or thereabouts
GAAH, that wouldn't do much good either Technetium does indeed get closer to neodymium like that, but it's still over... and worse, CHROMIUM jumps above technetium in rarity...
I don't see the harm in Chromium getting some love. If I've read your graph right isn't it already going to be the third most important value adjusted material behind Neodymium and Technecium?
/me quickly buys up a few million units of cheap chromium
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 18:07:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Turiel Demon I don't see the harm in Chromium getting some love.
Let's put things into perspective...
WHY do you think in the past two months dysprosium and promethium were so damn expensive, while everything else was nearly worthless ? Because everybody had to wait for enough dysprosium and promethium to be mined in order to do anything, while other types of materials kept stockpiling higher and higher, until (some) people were forced to stop mining those types of minerals altogether because they became nearly worthless.
If the numbers are correct, then right now (or, well, in the recent past), the ENTIRE supply of dysprosium was being consumed with prices per unit reaching 160k or so from about 120k a year back, and about 98% of promethium supply was consumed, with prices hovering around 140k in the very recent past, after having been far below 100k a year ago. The rest of materials, those that were using far less of the total possible capacity were only selling for a pittance compared to those two... none of them even reached 10k per unit - that's an absurdly low price... but that's the only price people were willing to pay, since they HAD to pay truckloads for the other two, which were crucial - if you didn't pay enough, you couldn't build. So, you reached a point where nearly 90% of the VALUE in a T2 ship was derived from the cost of those two moon minerals which were consumed almost entirely.
Now, enter Dominion... suddenly, you need far less promethium and dysprosium, so prices for those two start dropping fast... however, you need a truckload more neodymium - but that's reasonable still, because there was more of it to begin with, so you could build more if neodymium would be the one material that's being completely eaten up... however, technetium usage has roughly DOUBLED in Dominion... the same items that are being traded right now only used about 60% of available technetium, but in Dominion the same items would eat up ALL of it, and then some ("120%", lol). Basically, that would mean that T2 prices won't be going down, they'll be going UP, and most of the value that was previously split between promethium and dysprosium will be gobbled up by technetium... and it's just ONE mineral, so it takes ALL of it... say hello to 300k ISK/unit for technetium ! Of course, assuming the moon distribution data is even remotely relevant.
Now, you say, what would be the harm in chromium "getting some love" ? Well... nothing... if you want chromium to cost 300k ISK per unit !
The only way to have the price split between as many minerals as possible is to have the "adjusted rarity" for the most needed ones (as percentage of total potential production) be extremely close together. Why extremely close together ? Well, see what a mere 2% difference meant for promethium-vs-dysprosium price ! ONE material has to be the bottleneck, that much is certain - you will always have a bottleneck. The problem is you need to make the rest of the "want to be desirable" materials use up nearly their entire total potential stocks, or else their prices will drop to negligible levels, and only the fuel costs will determine their value.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.03 18:43:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 18:33:33
Originally by: Turiel Demon I don't see the harm in Chromium getting some love.
Let's put things into perspective...
WHY do you think in the past two months dysprosium and promethium were so damn expensive, while everything else was nearly worthless ? Because everybody had to wait for enough dysprosium and promethium to be mined in order to do anything, while other types of materials kept stockpiling higher and higher, until (some) people were forced to stop mining those types of minerals altogether because they became nearly worthless.
If the numbers are correct, then right now (or, well, in the recent past), the ENTIRE supply of dysprosium was being consumed with prices per unit reaching 160k or so from about 120k a year back, and about 98% of promethium supply was consumed, with prices hovering around 140k in the very recent past, after having been far below 100k a year ago. The rest of materials, those that were using far less of the total possible capacity were only selling for a pittance compared to those two... none of them even reached 10k per unit - that's an absurdly low price... but that's the only price people were willing to pay, since they HAD to pay truckloads for the other two, which were crucial - if you didn't pay enough, you couldn't build. So, you reached a point where nearly 90% of the VALUE in a T2 ship was derived from the cost of those two moon minerals which were consumed almost entirely.
Now, enter Dominion... suddenly, you need far less promethium and dysprosium, so prices for those two start dropping fast... however, you need a truckload more neodymium - but that's reasonable still, because there was more of it to begin with, so you could build more if neodymium would be the one material that's being completely eaten up... however, technetium usage has roughly DOUBLED in Dominion... the same items that are being traded right now only used about 60% of available technetium, but in Dominion the same items would eat up ALL of it, and then some ("120%", lol). Basically, that would mean that T2 prices won't be going down, they'll be going UP, and most of the value that was previously split between promethium and dysprosium will be gobbled up by technetium... and it's just ONE mineral, so it takes ALL of it... say hello to 300k ISK/unit for technetium ! Of course, assuming the moon distribution data is even remotely relevant.
Now, you say, what would be the harm in chromium "getting some love" ? Well... nothing... if you want chromium to cost 300k ISK per unit !
Before Dominion, the "top 8" usage rates (including estimated alchemy usage) out of total maximum possible production looked like this: Dysprosium - 100% Promethium - 97.8%
After Dominion, estimated usage rates (only difference being SiSi changed construction data) look like this right now for the "top 8": Technetium - 100.0% Chromium - 79.7% Neodymium - 71.7%
The only way to have the price split between as many minerals as possible is to have the "adjusted rarity" for the most needed ones (as percentage of total potential production) be extremely close together. Why extremely close together ? Well, see what a mere 2% difference meant for promethium-vs-dysprosium price ! ONE material has to be the bottleneck, that much is certain - you will always have a bottleneck. The problem is you need to make the rest of the "want to be desirable" materials use up nearly their entire total potential stocks, or else their prices will drop to negligible levels, and only the fuel costs will determine their value.
For a throwaway line, that got a hell of a lot more explanation than I bargained for
Seriously though, greatest thanks for explaining it in words of one sylable so I could understand
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.11.03 20:23:00 -
[54]
Has there been any further information on what the 'system upgrades' will be?
If players will be able to change the composition of their moons over time, that's going to affect these numbers a 'bit.'
Otherwise, great analysis.
/salute --A_K
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Aresse
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Posted - 2009.11.03 21:01:00 -
[55]
Yes, bow down to the Tech moon owners.
...anyone want some cheap Tech? 150k a unit! Get it before it skyrockets! |
Aineko Macx
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Posted - 2009.11.03 21:01:00 -
[56]
Originally by: Alain Kinsella If players will be able to change the composition of their moons over time, that's going to affect these numbers a 'bit.'
There has been no word on upgrades for moon mining.
Tempted to call the OP a manipulation attempt, but interesting. Ofc Jita has reacted ;) |
Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 21:14:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Aineko Macx Tempted to call the OP a manipulation attempt, but interesting. Ofc Jita has reacted ;)
In normal circumstances, perhaps, but this is Akita and he loves his spreadsheets.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.03 21:21:00 -
[58]
Originally by: Aineko Macx Tempted to call the OP a manipulation attempt, but interesting. Ofc Jita has reacted ;)
Yeah, someone chose to push Technetium from 3k to 6k in Jita today.
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Aresse
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Posted - 2009.11.03 21:28:00 -
[59]
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Aineko Macx Tempted to call the OP a manipulation attempt, but interesting. Ofc Jita has reacted ;)
Yeah, someone chose to push Technetium from 3k to 6k in Jita today.
*blush*
Makes sense I guess. I can't confirm anything at the moment, but I'll take Akita's word for it for now.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 21:42:00 -
[60]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 21:45:47
Personally, I'd make money either way, no matter what the new bottleneck is.
Ok, ok, not quite "no matter what", but I have most of the best candidates in stock - even if none turn out to be "the one", they're still going to go up in total. I got most of my bases covered weeks ago when I raised the capital - the one big certainty was that promethium and dysprosium would be going down, so there were plenty of candidates for what would go up (putting all my ISK on a single item or a small set of items would have been a gamble, and I don't like to gamble).
I do admit that I did recently rise my technetium stock a bit compared to what I already had stockpiled from before, but not by TOO much, since I still hope CCP will realize the mistake they're about to do and correct it (so why hold onto big stocks of stuff that's not going to be all that valuable after they almost unavoidably nuke it in the completely opposite direction).
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Aurorae Andromedae
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:10:00 -
[61]
So Akita T, do you think is a good change or bad one?
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Aresse
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:13:00 -
[62]
^ what she said.
Even if CCP doesn't change/alter the bottleneck that will be Technetium, do you honestly think it'll go all the way up to 300k per unit? That's great for me (three Tech moons atm), but even I think that's a bit crazy.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:19:00 -
[63]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 22:23:32
Originally by: Aresse Even if CCP doesn't change/alter the bottleneck that will be Technetium, do you honestly think it'll go all the way up to 300k per unit?
If the situation is exactly the way you see it on the last screenshot, then yes, I honestly do think that. It should go up to roughly the pre-Dominion price of one dysprosium PLUS one promethium, only slightly lower than that. Last time I checked, before the first Dominion-related changes hit the public view, prices where peaking at around 160k and 140k... so, yes, roughly 300k per technetium unit doesn't sound impossible at all, but actually very likely. Sure, it might take half a year or even one entire year for technetium to hit that price point, as more and more people start moving their forgotten stockpiles for sale, but still, eventually, that would be the equilibrium price.
Originally by: Aresse That's great for me (three Tech moons atm)
I'll give you one month tops after the expansion hits in this format before you lose them - stockpile it all while you still can
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Aresse
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:31:00 -
[64]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 22:23:32
Originally by: Aresse Even if CCP doesn't change/alter the bottleneck that will be Technetium, do you honestly think it'll go all the way up to 300k per unit?
If the situation is exactly the way you see it on the last screenshot, then yes, I honestly do think that. It should go up to roughly the pre-Dominion price of one dysprosium PLUS one promethium, only slightly lower than that. Last time I checked, before the first Dominion-related changes hit the public view, prices where peaking at around 160k and 140k... so, yes, roughly 300k per technetium unit doesn't sound impossible at all, but actually very likely. Sure, it might take half a year or even one entire year for technetium to hit that price point, as more and more people start moving their forgotten stockpiles for sale, but still, eventually, that would be the equilibrium price.
Originally by: Aresse That's great for me (three Tech moons atm)
I'll give you one month tops after the expansion hits in this format before you lose them - stockpile it all while you still can
Prolly will happen. I'm stockpiling like a mofo :)
If tech is going to skyrocket like this, one would have to assume that the complex/simple reactions that use it are going to skyrocket as well, amirite?
/me starts up the reactions again.
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Wotcher Renyolds
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:32:00 -
[65]
I wonder why nobody thought to by platinum technite, which is the only thing you can make with technetium and the thing that people will need to buy if the technetium market freezes up to continue Nano chains before I went in.
Seriously people are really bad at thinking downstream at all.
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Aresse
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:39:00 -
[66]
Originally by: Wotcher Renyolds I wonder why nobody thought to by platinum technite, which is the only thing you can make with technetium and the thing that people will need to buy if the technetium market freezes up to continue Nano chains before I went in.
Seriously people are really bad at thinking downstream at all.
Waaaay ahead of you.
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Wotcher Renyolds
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:42:00 -
[67]
Originally by: Aresse
Originally by: Wotcher Renyolds I wonder why nobody thought to by platinum technite, which is the only thing you can make with technetium and the thing that people will need to buy if the technetium market freezes up to continue Nano chains before I went in.
Seriously people are really bad at thinking downstream at all.
Waaaay ahead of you.
only by a minute I'd typed it up then decided to check if there was any cheap stuff left before hitting submit
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:55:00 -
[68]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 22:57:58
Why bother with platinum technite (intermediate reactions are notoriously nasty to move) when fullerides are at an all-time-low and available in ample supply ? P.S. Anyway, like I already said, I fully expect//hope CCP will correct this, so buying up truckloads of technetium and technetium-related stuff will only do you good if you either buy it very, very cheaply or CCP doesn't do anything about it.
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Wotcher Renyolds
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Posted - 2009.11.03 22:58:00 -
[69]
Originally by: Akita T Why bother with platinum technite (intermediate reactions are notoriously nasty to move) when fullerides are at an all-time-low and available in ample supply ?
because you can't run a nanotransistor chain without it and have you looked at the price of nanotransistors today
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.03 23:01:00 -
[70]
Well, nanotransistors were already high because of the neodymium, so that leaves fullerides, for traders. But, yeah, if you're running a reaction chain and want extra supplies, then yeah, that's the only remaining cheap option
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.11.04 00:58:00 -
[71]
Heh, nevermind under 3K, I haven't been able to find a region where there was any technetium selling at all other than Forge
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.04 01:11:00 -
[72]
In case you guys missed it, I amended the estimated long-term pricetag of technetium... including the reasoning for it. It's not around 300k, but around 200k if all things remain as now on SiSi.
_
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.11.04 01:15:00 -
[73]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 23:19:24 P.S. Hey, what do you know, they might pull a fast one on us and start seeding w-space moons with moon minerals in such ratios as to compensate for the lack of some high-demand moon minerals in k-space...
...or simpler still, just add high-rarity moon minerals at random on low-value moons in k-space
While we're on this subject, some other ideas for what they could do:
- Re-randomize the moon compositions, so that at least one of each 'high-grade' moon were available in each constellation (perhaps including low-sec borders to 0.0). This is a reasonable projection due to CCP's statements about their 'expected' 0.0 densities (i.e. about one corp per system) and the idea that everyone could at least have a chance at them.
- Have high-grade moons output less of the 'good stuff' over time (say 50% reduction in 6 months), requiring some form of rest period to replenish the output. Unlikely at this point, however. . .
- Possible integration of Dust matches affecting moon output. Also, there was discussion at FanFest about managing mini-empires on planets; They may allow work there to help leverage moon output in the system (i.e. cultivate a scientific community).
These ideas are, admittedly, a bit 'out there' but I've seen more ambitious projects take off well. I'm also used to last-minute world-shaking changes in other environments, so its going to be hard to surprise me.
--A_K
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.04 13:59:00 -
[74]
They were talking about moongoo from comets at one point (which would be exploration-only content, no idea if that means everywhere or just in w-space), but that's only supposed to "maybe" come in some yet unnamed future expansion.
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Doomed Predator
Red Federation
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Posted - 2009.11.04 19:49:00 -
[75]
What makes you think that all tech moons are being mine anyway.last time i checked only r64s were worth a damn and the rest barely covered all the bills. The 'Fendahlian Collective' strikes again |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.04 20:47:00 -
[76]
Originally by: Doomed Predator What makes you think that all tech moons are being mine anyway.last time i checked only r64s were worth a damn and the rest barely covered all the bills.
Technetium isn't even R64, its R32, which is what makes his estimation even more entertaining, especially if it turns out to be true.
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.11.04 22:08:00 -
[77]
Originally by: corestwo
Originally by: Doomed Predator What makes you think that all tech moons are being mine anyway.last time i checked only r64s were worth a damn and the rest barely covered all the bills.
Technetium isn't even R64, its R32, which is what makes his estimation even more entertaining, especially if it turns out to be true.
I think that's his point. At present (current T2 usage), we're not using all the Tech moon supply, so why should people dedicate POSes to them all like Dysp and Prom.
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Hoodat Bee
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Posted - 2009.11.04 22:27:00 -
[78]
Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steh^h^h^h^h^echnetium
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.04 22:30:00 -
[79]
Originally by: Doomed Predator What makes you think that all tech moons are being mine anyway.
How many moons are actually being mined is only partially relevant - the most relevant thing is how many moons EXIST. I am fairly sure that there are technetium moons that aren't being mined, or better said, weren't being mined in the very recent past.
Still, technetium sold for roughly 6k about a year ago, before dysprosium/promethium completely exploded upwards in price... and it was at that time the third most valuable moon mineral (far below dys/prom, sure, but still about as valuable as chromium/cadmium at the peak of alchemy-driven prices). When alchemy started being used heavily, we saw technetium prices dropping and cadmium, then chromium prices rising, which almost matches the adjusted-for-alchemy scarcity data you can see in the pictures ; the reason why the match is not perfect COULD be that some people actually did alchemy at next to no gains... or it might be possible that there were slightly more technetium moons than assumed in that calculation. STILL, we know for sure that technetium kept being the fifth most valuable moon mineral even with alchemy in full swing, so there couldn't possibly been THAT many extra technetium moons in existence.
All of this further cements the conviction that the moon data was indeed accurate... or, better said, accurate enough for our purposes. At an extreme, there could be AT MOST around 30% more technetium moons than I assumed there are, in which case the new situation in Dominion becomes a precarious balance between chromium, technetium and neodymium (which one is first and just by how much depending on how many moons really exist). In that case, prices could swing anywhere between (very roughly) 50k average and 300k max for neodymium, 30k average and 200k max for technetium, 12k average and 80k max for chromium (obviously, if one is at the max, the rest would be at a negligible price-point, under 5k).
_
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a51 duke1406
Imperium Signal Corps Underworld Excavators
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Posted - 2009.11.05 04:24:00 -
[80]
If noting else the speculation on the market has gone crazy. 100% increase in price and the trade volume has gone way up. Not sure if its just your treads or if others are seeing the same thing. Or if its that the usual market traders have found something new. But its certainly going up in price.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.05 05:46:00 -
[81]
Edited by: xylopia on 05/11/2009 05:55:19
Originally by: a51 duke1406 If noting else the speculation on the market has gone crazy. 100% increase in price and the trade volume has gone way up. Not sure if its just your treads or if others are seeing the same thing. Or if its that the usual market traders have found something new. But its certainly going up in price.
When Nanotransistors reaches around +4k pu, it is a good sign that we are now at Dominion-level equilibrium. So, you ain't see nothing yet.
If Technetium is indeed a hot issue like Akita points out, well, i guess you'll see higher price tag on Nano. The recipe for Nano. is Neodymium, Mercury, Technetium, Platinum, Atmospheric Gas, and Evaporate Deposites, and 1 unit of Nano. contains 0.033 units of above, each material. So, you can calculate how high Nano. can shoot up.
Fyi, Baseprice of Nanotransistors is exactly 1/4 of Ferrogel. nothing to say at this moment. |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.05 07:30:00 -
[82]
For CCP to state in the dev blogs that they are trying to make moon mining less valuable and then to only rearrange the values so that technetium becomes the new dyspro seems extremely unlikely.
Whether it is through wormholes, comets, planets, or alchemy I imagine they will wind up adding to the supply.
Full disclosure - I am heavily invested in the Technetium to Microprocessor line, but suspect in the end the phrase "tulip bulbs" will be popping up in a couple of weeks.
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iP0D
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Posted - 2009.11.05 08:21:00 -
[83]
Originally by: EvilCheez Edited by: EvilCheez on 05/11/2009 08:04:36 For CCP to state in the dev blogs that they are trying to make moon mining less valuable and then to only rearrange the values so that technetium becomes the new dyspro seems extremely unlikely.
Whether it is through wormholes, comets, planets, or alchemy I imagine they will wind up adding to the supply. The empire moons also have minerals, but I don't think empire moon mining would even be considered.
As sad as this may sound, never trust CCP to be always on the ball or to be perfect. EVE is a pretty damn complex environment, and even in a perfect world where people behave as predicted just the amount of interactions possible creates enough wonderful instability.
But that on the side, remember the complete dropping of the ball with the moon exploit that went on for years, the failure of Alchemy as a toolset for readjustment, the enormous amount of time that went by with sovereignty attached to pos while everyone was banging their heads against the bottlenecks and the excess and the abuse for years, or even just the simple little thing of introducing level 4 agents in an expansion intended to get people out to 0.0 (as opposed to having them all go to empire instead). There's quite a list of such little "events" :P
It isn't really catastrophic, it just shows that CCP are an evolving factor in their own environment just like players, and shocking as it is CCP are human beings. EVE has a long history of a little hiccup lasting for a long time with extreme impact in spite of "everyone" seeing it coming or seeing the mistake.
I'm sure they will have had a wakeup call by now, which for my plans is kind of meh, but remember that it is still a few weeks till Dominion and anything can change in the mean time. Just never expect CCP to be perfect, or the expansion features & dynamics for that matter. Adjustment to a hiccup can take anything between a Sisi patch and 4 years.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.05 12:26:00 -
[84]
Edited by: Akita T on 05/11/2009 12:31:27
Right now, the monthly Jita-traded volume required roughly 10.1 mil dysprosium (but only around 9.4 mil after we account for alchemy), 13.1 mil promethium (about 12.8 mil after alchemy), 10.4 mil technetium and roughly 26 mil chromium (and another 5.4 mil or so eaten by alchemy for around 39 mil total).
Now, we do know for sure that nearly all of the dysprosium moons were in constant production mode until recently, so that meant those minimum 9.4 mil dysprosium represented (proportionally speaking, compared to the other moon minerals) pretty much the full/maximum share of dysprosium that could possibly be mined, as made obvious by the pricetag. We also know that 10.4 mil technetium and 39 mil chromium represented noticeably less than the maximum possible production, with chromium representing a slightly higher percentage of it. Realistically speaking, the WORST case estimates put that at around 60% of maximum share of technetium production and around 65% maximum share of chromium production... while BEST case estimates are around 45% of maximum technetium production and around 50% of maximum chromium production.
After Dominion hits, the exact same volume and make-up of T2 goods traded will be requiring a bit under 6.2 mil dysprosium (it is doubtful cadmium alchemy will be profitable even with the new ratios), a bit under 7.6 mil promethium (same story here, doubt chromium would be worth using in alchemy after the patch), but over 20.3 mil technetium (with no possibility of alchemy for it) and a whopping 51.8 mil chromium (without any of it being reacted since it would not be worth it).
Obviously, this means the same goods will now eat less than 62% of max dysprosium production and around 58% of the max promethium production - obviously, none of these two will be a problem anymore. Now, depending on which estimates (best/worst realistic case) we take into account, that could mean the same volume of T2 items would eat up anywhere from 86% to 117% of maximum technetium production, and between 66% and 87% of maximum chromium production.
In the best case for both, that would mean they're still more valuable (proportionally) compared to either dysprosium and promethium, and overall T2 prices would drop since the bottleneck would be indeed wider... but 1/0.86 = 1.16279etc So... a bottleneck barely +16.3% wider ? That is seriously no big deal... and that's in the best case scenario. All we'd see is a redistribution of inflated dysp/prom prices into inflated techn/chrom/neod prices, with the overall value of T2 ships not much lower than it is today.
In the worst case scenario, technetium would be the limiting factor, and the bottleneck would actually be THINNER than it was before ! Most of the value would concentrate into just technetium, and T2 ship costs would actually be going UP.
ALSO - REMEMBER : THERE IS NO TECHNETIUM ALCHEMY
Originally by: EvilCheez For CCP to state in the dev blogs that they are trying to make moon mining less valuable and then to only rearrange the values so that technetium becomes the new dyspro seems extremely unlikely.
Actually, it sounds exactly like the kind of thing CCP would do. For instance, you know what their main worry of theirs was when they adjusted the SiSi data ? To make sure the racial plates and carbides don't become the new bottleneck... seems technetium wasn't even on their radar. Oh... and let's not forget the whole drone space disaster on the minerals market, then their recent veldspar-in-highsec adjustment that made ships sell now even below insurance scam value... then the horrible initial salvage drop ratios when rigs were first introduced... and the disgusting sleeper salvage drop ratios, both before and after their adjustments to NIM (from way too little to way too much, propelling nanoribbons to insane values).
So, yeah, it does sound like something CCP would do - they've done it before countless times.
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2009.11.05 16:03:00 -
[85]
I agree.
I suspect that CCP has not done as complete as an analysis on this as you have Akita. From the dev blogs they were aware of the 'obvious' potential new bottlenecks but technitium may easily have been missed.
Still, can we just keep quiet about it till after prices go up and I sell of my stockpiles? --------------------------------------
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.05 22:46:00 -
[86]
Originally by: Ambo Still, can we just keep quiet about it till after prices go up and I sell of my stockpiles?
You might not want to get rid of your stockpiles that easily either way - even if they try tone technetium down a lot, they'd have to make MAJOR changes, and it would still be about on par with dysp/prom/neod/chrom scarcity-wise. So I fully expect technetium to jump past 10k per unit the very least.
For instance... proposed ship T2 component changes : capacitors -> *0.2 microprocessors -> *0.75 plates -> *0.5 reactors -> *2 sensors -> *0.75 thrusters -> 0.75 shields -> unchanged + proposed T2 component construction changes: sylramic in plates (TQ 30, SiSi 10) : 6 fullerides in capacitors (default 15) : 3 fermionic cond. in reactors (default 1) : 2
In the WORST case scenario for technetium/cadmium availability, that would put technetium, dysprosium, promethium and neodymium at roughly the same usage ratios (nearly full usage of all four), chromium close behind (around 80%), mercury a little lower (at around 66%), with platinum and cadmium also relatively close (around 56%), vanadium at 37% (much higher than before, it was barely at around 26%) and thulium at 32% (pretty much where it was before).
In the BEST case scenario for technetium/cadmium availability, that would be a 3-way tie between dysprosium, promethium and neodymium for the top, technetium and mercury tied at around 66%, with platinum, cadmium and chromium tied around 56%.
Of course, they could also just give up and introduce "technetium replacement" alchemy Still, given CCP's past track record, I think it's safe to say that there's a high chance in half a year I'll be making a "told you so" thread.
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Doomed Predator
Red Federation
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Posted - 2009.11.05 22:54:00 -
[87]
So,you go from saying technetium prices will be from 30k to 200k and now you say 10k. Make up your mind already The 'Fendahlian Collective' strikes again |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.05 23:22:00 -
[88]
Originally by: Doomed Predator So,you go from saying technetium prices will be from 30k to 200k and now you say 10k. Make up your mind already
There is absolutely no contradiction between any of those numbers The 30k-to-200k prices are based on best/worst case technetium moon count estimates and CURRENT SiSi item build stats. The 10k is in case the moon data I used was fairly accurate and they decide to modify the SiSi ratios into something similar to those I posted above.
_
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.11.06 04:30:00 -
[89]
I think everyone should run out to Jita and buy a bunch of Technetium Right Now!
You don't want to get caught with your pants down after Dominion, do you?
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Zarlis
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.11.06 04:52:00 -
[90]
Edited by: Zarlis on 06/11/2009 04:55:06 Looking at the data available on DOTLAN we can see that the only areas rich in these moons are Venal, Vale of the Silent, Pure Blind, Deklein, Geminate and Black Rise. If this is true for the area then we can expect that Branch, Tenal and Tribute to also contain an abundance of these moons depending on their sec status.
This will be very interesting on the political side if prices go through the roof and ccp does nothing about it. We will be moving from a system where the valuable moons prom/dys were relatively evenly spread around to a system where 90% of the moongold is controlled by the Northern Coalition and particularly Razor if Branch and Tenal are like Venal.
Prepare to be price gouged like in the old t2 bpo days.
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2009.11.06 05:53:00 -
[91]
I think Technetium is a Themed Mineral, due to it's complete absence in the Sansha Regions, making it not an Amarr specific mineral. I might conclude that the vast majority of Technetium moons could be in unreported regions that are clumped together due to NPC faction type.
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Eisonar
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Posted - 2009.11.06 08:52:00 -
[92]
Originally by: Zarlis Edited by: Zarlis on 06/11/2009 04:55:06 Looking at the data available on DOTLAN we can see that the only areas rich in these moons are Venal, Vale of the Silent, Pure Blind, Deklein, Geminate and Black Rise. If this is true for the area then we can expect that Branch, Tenal and Tribute to also contain an abundance of these moons depending on their sec status.
This will be very interesting on the political side if prices go through the roof and ccp does nothing about it. We will be moving from a system where the valuable moons prom/dys were relatively evenly spread around to a system where 90% of the moongold is controlled by the Northern Coalition and particularly Razor if Branch and Tenal are like Venal.
Prepare to be price gouged like in the old t2 bpo days.
God I can't wait.
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Protheroe
UMEC
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Posted - 2009.11.06 09:49:00 -
[93]
I believe Dotlan is quite accurate for Dysprosium and Promethium moons. Aside from a few errors (there are entries for some systems where the material quantities seem to have been doubled), it matches the data I have from several different sources. Since these moons have been fought over for so long their locations have gradually become public knowledge, and they are much more likely to be scanned and reported. There are also far fewer of them, so they're easier to keep track of.
However I agree with Verite that other materials, including the R32s, are likely to be under-reported, with a few exceptions. Dotlan has very high coverage for some regions, probably due to the fact that complete scans have been released for them (complete or nearly complete surveys for empire space, Fountain, Venal, Deklein, Querious, Pure Blind and several regions in the south east have all been publicly available at various times).
Going by the regions with complete coverage, 29 of the 2,994 moons in Deklein (0.97%) are technetium, 74 out of 4,274 (1.73%) in Venal, 34 out of 3,735 (0.91%) in Pure Blind, and 17 out of 1,251 (1.36%) in Black Rise.
30 out of the 4,980 moons in Vale of the Silent (0.60%) and 13 out of 3,600 in Geminate (0.36%) are reported as technetium, but coverage for these regions is much lower (74% for Vale, just 6% for Geminate).
On the assumption that 1% of the total moons in good Guristas space will be technetium, the results for the regions with limited public information on actual moon distribution would be:
37 Branch 36 Geminate 25 Tenal 27 Tribute 50 Vale of the Silent
Adding these numbers to the counts on Dotlan for other regions gives a total of 361 technetium moons.
Obviously the actual numbers could be significantly different (I think the actual counts for Geminate and Vale in particular could be lower), but how would your calculation of post-Dominion technetium prices change based on this estimate? |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.06 12:54:00 -
[94]
In Dominion, at the SiSi build ratios used in the analysis, the ratio of Technetium:Dysprosium needed to build is slightly below 3.3:1. On Dotlan, the ratio reported for moon counts is roughly 1.7:1.
So even if Dotlan underreported technetium moons by a factor of almost 2 (unlikely, but possible) and there are actually 3.3 or more times more technetium moons compared to dysprosium moons, technetium becomes at least as valuabe as dysprosium will be worth in Dominion. Of course, that's not really saying much, since dysprosium will certainly be worth jack-all in Dominion.
If Dotlan only underreported technetium moons by around 30% or so, technetium still remains the most valuable moon mineral, but not quite as grimly as portrayed on page 2 of this thread - analysis on this scenario was already made on the previous pages. Long story short, if nothing changes on SiSi T2 component-wise, it's a battle royale between technetium (most likely to be a problem), chromium and neodymium (least likely to be a problem) - which one, or what combination of them becomes the problem depends on actual moon ratios between them (and the previous chosen reference point from before Dominion, namely dysprosium).
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.06 13:09:00 -
[95]
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/T2stuff_Dominion_2_afterDom_v3_Office2007.zip (Linkage) I've added a few bells and whistles to this one.
First off, I have added an area where you can simply enter how many moons you think there are in the explored area, and how wide do you think the explored area is - scarcity now is displayed not as number, but as percentage of total EVE production to make understanding it all easier.
A new column (with white text on magenta bar background) was added to simply display what the total estimated EVE-wide consumption ratio of each individual moon mineral will be (out of total possible production). That's probably the most important thing, because whichever hits 100% will be the most valuable (as a whole, not as unit price - unit price depends on that and several other factors), and the less below 100% it is, the (exponentially) lower the price will be.
Also, you can now manually alter the overall consumption of T2 components (haven't selected by ships only, but ships make up over 80% of total consumption, so, meh... I might select for ships only some time later, but not just now) and even the amounts of some advanced materials "eaten up" by some T2 components (you need to update a pivot table for that, and therefore you need to use the same Excel version that created the table - hence no Office'97 version). This would allow you to get a quick (not entirely accurate, but close enough) look at how things change if you change build ratios.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.06 13:45:00 -
[96]
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. In the sheet posted below, if I only enter 361 technetium moons (and do not alter the coverage area, so make a hopelessly optimistic assumption that somehow only tech moons were not reported but everything else relevant was), then you go to a situation where neodymium is king at 100% usage (overall bottleneck slightly wider than before Dominion, but only slightly), chromium is second at 89-91% usage and technetium is the third at 87-89% usage.
W/e the case might be, this whole Dominion thing turns out to be waaaaay better than I could ever possibly foresee. It almost makes my hair stand! C'mon CCP! make it rain baby!
Meanwhile, I've learned quite a lot of eve. Many thanks for your work, Akita! nothing to say at this moment. |
Agrilad
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Posted - 2009.11.06 16:27:00 -
[97]
Edited by: Agrilad on 06/11/2009 16:27:53 Maybe someone else posted this link. But akita was asking for lists of available moon minerals. Unfortunately these don't include null sec, as far as I saw.
Moon Map project: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=942649
Yeah someone else can compile the numbers, I am just pointing out the data. :p
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.06 16:37:00 -
[98]
Edited by: Akita T on 06/11/2009 16:37:46
Thanks for the info, but you're a bit late The "v2" spreadsheets were based on moon count numbers from evemaps.dotlan.net/region/moons which already uses the "moon map project" data on top of additional data. We're currently up on the "v3" spreadsheets that contain that data plus additional tweakability to manually add moon counts and other stuff.
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WarlockX
Amarr Free Trade Corp
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Posted - 2009.11.06 22:28:00 -
[99]
Edited by: WarlockX on 06/11/2009 22:29:15 Interesting..
If chromium prices go up that means solerium prices are going up, and in turn things like hypersynaptic fibers. But it will take some time to filter down. Very interesting indeed.
edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol. ----------------------------------------------- Free Trade Corp - Flash page
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.07 02:42:00 -
[100]
Originally by: WarlockX edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol.
Well, as soon as all cheap advanced materials and moon minerals were grabbed, people moved for the intermediate reactions, obviously.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.08 15:19:00 -
[101]
I see the market is reacting nicely, but it's still nowhere close to what the data indicates - can't blame anybody, the patch is still three weeks away and the data is not completely reliable, so caution is indeed advisable... but you don't make profits without taking any risks whatsoever
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.08 17:34:00 -
[102]
Originally by: Akita T I see the market is reacting nicely, but it's still nowhere close to what the data indicates - can't blame anybody, the patch is still three weeks away and the data is not completely reliable, so caution is indeed advisable... but you don't make profits without taking any risks whatsoever
Looks like there's about 12b isk worth of buy orders for technetium between current level and 5.5k/unit, so plenty of buffer there, and only 3 or 4b worth of sell orders before 10K/unit... seems to me like it's about to spike even more tbh.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.08 18:14:00 -
[103]
not that i understand too much about this, but given current prices there are margins on simple reactions between 8 and 40%... i think thatll make for some nice opportunities.
thanks for all the work akita, and i hope you litterally will earn tons of iskies with this thread.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.11.09 00:29:00 -
[104]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: WarlockX edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol.
Well, as soon as all cheap advanced materials and moon minerals were grabbed, people moved for the intermediate reactions, obviously.
Interestingly, chromium is still relatively low. Seems it's taking some time for all of the stocks people have been holding onto due to chromium plummeting over the last few months to get sucked up.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.09 12:18:00 -
[105]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: WarlockX edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol.
Well, as soon as all cheap advanced materials and moon minerals were grabbed, people moved for the intermediate reactions, obviously.
Interestingly, chromium is still relatively low. Seems it's taking some time for all of the stocks people have been holding onto due to chromium plummeting over the last few months to get sucked up.
And just like platinum technite we can expect hexite (Chromium + Platinum) to be a good candidate for going up
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.09 17:30:00 -
[106]
Originally by: Turiel Demon And just like platinum technite we can expect hexite (Chromium + Platinum) to be a good candidate for going up
I'd say pretty much everything that has technetium, neodymium, chromium and platinum in it has a very good chance to go up pretty heavily (the only exception being sylramic fibers, which already went up a lot, and even if they would still go up, they won't go up as much as the others, relatively speaking).
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Daniel limb
Pilots Of Honour Aeternus.
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Posted - 2009.11.09 23:27:00 -
[107]
hmm so we have already seen a considerable drop in cadmium prices expect it to drop post patch?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.10 00:27:00 -
[108]
Originally by: Daniel limb hmm so we have already seen a considerable drop in cadmium prices expect it to drop post patch?
On one hand, you will no longer see it used all that much in alchemy (if at all - that's why its price is dropping right now, as the current alchemy reactions slowly come to a stop, if they restart or not past-Dominion remains to be seen, I'd say not likely), on the other hand you need MUCH more of it in armor plates. Probably going to stay more or less the same, maybe even go up a little bit.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.10 15:12:00 -
[109]
Can anyone explain to me the anemic performance of tungsten carbide compared to the other carbides?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.10 15:45:00 -
[110]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Can anyone explain to me the anemic performance of tungsten carbide compared to the other carbides?
I'm not really that surprised tungsten carbide isn't going sky-high just yet since platinum hasn't spiked that hard, but what I am surprised is that fernite carbide is going up like mad ; if anything, it should be the other way around. Oh well, I guess the fernite carbide market, being the lowest-volume one out of the four is the one reacting fastest to the stock shortages...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.10 16:13:00 -
[111]
Oh by the way... after you mentioned tungsten carbide and its weird performance, I was just double-checking everything about carbides in my sheet... lo and behold, it seems one of the fields was in the wrong place... tungsten carbide was registering as using chromium instead of platinum : instead of data being in cell K35 where it should have been, it was in cell L35. So basically, chromium and platinum more or less trade rarity places with eachother.
So, the new rarity order is NOT the one that was mentioned until now, i.e. technetium/neodymium/chromium/platinum/dysprosium/promethium but instead is either technetium/neodymium/platinum/chromium/dysprosium/promethium or even technetium/neodymium/platinum/dysprosium/chromium/promethium (since chromium and dysprosium seem to be very close to eachother rarity-wise)
Not a huge difference, but a difference nevertheless.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.10 16:27:00 -
[112]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 10/11/2009 16:27:50 What i dont get: If you take Buy Order Price of Platinum and Technetium, which the later only being used in a Platinum Technite reaction, an take the current Sell Orders of Pt. Technite, you get a gigantonormous 3.5% margin, not to speak of taking actual sell order prices of those two moon goos.
And yes, i hold a few hundred k of pt. technite
edit: those 3.5% not considering pos fuel ofc, but thats for free as we all know
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.10 16:39:00 -
[113]
Originally by: Julian Koll What i dont get: [...]
Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs. Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.10 17:15:00 -
[114]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 10/11/2009 16:36:06
Oh by the way... after you mentioned tungsten carbide and its weird performance, I was just double-checking everything about carbides in my sheet... lo and behold, it seems one of the fields was in the wrong place... tungsten carbide was registering as using chromium instead of platinum : instead of data being in cell K35 where it should have been, it was in cell L35. So basically, chromium and platinum more or less trade rarity places with eachother.
So, the new rarity order is NOT the one that was mentioned until now, i.e. technetium/neodymium/chromium/platinum/dysprosium/promethium/mercury but instead is either technetium/neodymium/platinum/chromium/dysprosium/promethium/mercury or even technetium/neodymium/platinum/dysprosium/chromium/promethium/mercury (since chromium and dysprosium seem to be very close to each-other, rarity percentage-wise, in Dominion)
Not a huge difference, but a difference nevertheless. ___
I don't believe titanium carbide nor chromium would go down noticeably (actually, I believe they still have some extra increase to do from their current places, but you never know), therefore, it's just that all platinum-containing things should start to go up much harder. So, predictions : * platinum up most in the near future * platinum-containing simple reactions and also fullerides less than half the increase of platinum * tungsten carbide going up quite nicely too * some smaller increase in nanotransistors (they were already up because of technetium) * NO CHANGE for sylramic fibers (since they use both chromium and platinum) * hypersinaptic fibers uncertain change, possible (but not very likely) slight decrease
___
Here's the new corrected sheet (version "3b"): http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/T2stuff_Dominion_2_afterDom_v3b_Office2007.zip (Linkage)
Why do I do this to myself? I just invested in Chromium and then I make Akita kill it's chances
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.10 17:45:00 -
[115]
Well, I wouldn't exactly call it "killing its chances" (since I still think it will also go up anyway), just, you know, noticeably less profit than you probably hoped for
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.10 18:05:00 -
[116]
Edited by: Turiel Demon on 10/11/2009 18:11:03 Meh, I bought it at 2100, it's not like I'm going to make a loss. Actually I've got almost enough stock to kill the current buy-orders down to 2500 or so, maybe I should try a little manipulation
Looking at Technetium, there's just one major sell order, those 800K units at 10k/u (so, 8b worth) are a big cap on the price level right now, I wonder if that seller will shift his order up or if we'll have to break through it, and, in that case, how long that will take...
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.11.10 18:12:00 -
[117]
Originally by: Akita T Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs. Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.
Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.10 18:23:00 -
[118]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs. Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.
Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)
As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.10 18:49:00 -
[119]
Originally by: Julian Koll
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs. Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.
Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)
As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.
How does that calc go? I don't know about POS manufacture but I'm wondering about Hexite and Fullerides atm
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.10 19:00:00 -
[120]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Julian Koll
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs. Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.
Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)
As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.
How does that calc go? I don't know about POS manufacture but I'm wondering about Hexite and Fullerides atm
Lets say you take 1b worth of A (buy order price) and 500m worth of B (buy order price) and you use half the capacity of a large pos to make C that you could buy from sellorders for 1550m... but that large POS costs you 150m each month to run... you get what i mean?
and as i put quite some work in my spreadsheat i am not sure if i am willing to share it... but its not that difficult to do
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.11.10 19:32:00 -
[121]
Originally by: Julian Koll As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.
Fair enough, you would have to be an idiot to buy Platinum (Pt) and Technetium (Tc) off the market to make Platinum Technite at current prices, but that simply means that prices are in flux and they haven't properly adjusted. Perhaps the people selling Pt-Tc are mining their own Pt and Tc and have no idea what the raw materials are selling for on the market. Perhaps they are people dumping their stock at what seems like good prices.
Obviously the market is going through a transition right now and you are going to find anomalies, but the point is that over the long-term, prices of advanced materials will reflect the cost of raw materials, and prices of intermediate materials will either follow in step, or if they get out of line they will correct eventually.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.10 19:36:00 -
[122]
Originally by: Claire Voyant ...mining their own...
sounds awefully familiar, doesnt it. But enough of me trying to raise the price in pt technite.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.10 23:47:00 -
[123]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Turiel Demon Can anyone explain to me the anemic performance of tungsten carbide compared to the other carbides?
I'm not really that surprised tungsten carbide isn't going sky-high just yet since platinum hasn't spiked that hard, but what I am surprised is that fernite carbide is going up like mad ; if anything, it should be the other way around. Oh well, I guess the fernite carbide market, being the lowest-volume one out of the four is the one reacting fastest to the stock shortages...
Quoting from last page, something went crazy on fernite carbide today, was stable at 128 for a couple of days, now in the space of an afternoon it jumped up to 185. I'm sure there were a few tens of millions of units on the market before that level... I guess it has something to do with the normally sedate 400 level of Scandium goign to 3000/unit
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Triladir
Gallente SPORADIC MOVEMENT Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.11.11 01:00:00 -
[124]
Agreed - and vanadium's fruity too - it's up to 2k a unit now...
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.11.11 02:31:00 -
[125]
Originally by: Akita T Well, I wouldn't exactly call it "killing its chances" (since I still think it will also go up anyway), just, you know, noticeably less profit than you probably hoped for
What are your estimates for chrom given the new data?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.11 03:52:00 -
[126]
Edited by: Akita T on 11/11/2009 03:52:59
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev What are your estimates for chrom given the new data?
Pretty much the same thoughts about it as for those mentioned about cadmium in post 108 (less/no alchemy use but heavily increased armor plates usage), but chromium is still more important than cadmium (other noticeable quantity demands than just armor plates), so that goes double. Overall, somewhere around 5k a piece when things settle down, I guess... could be slightly less than that or noticeably more though (depending on a lot of other factors outside player control and/or knowledge), but 5k seems like a reasonably conservative estimate - bottom line, higher than it is right now.
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Tagami Wasp
Caldari Sarz'na Khumatari Ushra'Khan
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Posted - 2009.11.11 04:50:00 -
[127]
Hmm, is vanadium low or high atm?
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Triladir
Gallente SPORADIC MOVEMENT Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.11.11 05:08:00 -
[128]
She's normally hovering about 900pu - shot up to 2k pu and has settled in now at 1300pu...
The theory-crafter's are manipulating the market I think...
I have a hot tip that plates will use a LOAD of Atmospheric gases after the Dominion patch
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.11 05:12:00 -
[129]
Lots of tears about Sov changes. Could mean a lot of POS being taken down. Could be a moon mining bottleneck over multiple materials with fits and starts as stockpiles are consumed. I suspect the most valuable moons will continue to be mined without a problem. Depends on what happens with POS.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Triladir
Gallente SPORADIC MOVEMENT Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.11.11 07:22:00 -
[130]
The way I see it is that some minerals will bounce about a bit... The timeline will be...
* Sov towers will get taken down, * They'll be a glut of large towers and POS fuel and product, * The minerals will crash, * Then, as less raw minerals get produced and sold, the prices for moon goo will rise, * People will then go, hey, I can make a fortune of mining 'x'... * Small and Medium POSes (to maximise profits) will spring up, * The prices for moon goo will drop as the amount of moon goo rises * People will then start blowing up said towers at some point, some T2 ships will be lost here and there. * The price for minerals, will rise and fall until they reach equilibrium...
And the cycle continues...
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.11 12:33:00 -
[131]
So, i had another look at the simple reaction and did some math. I used buy order price for raw materials I used sell order price for intermediate materials I assumed 150m / month POS fuel for using the capacity of half a large POS.
The Results are as follows:
negative ROI:
Sulfuric Acid Silicon Diborite Ceramic Powder Carbon Polymers Rolled Tungsten Pt Technite
ROI between 0% and 20%:
Hexite Vanadium Hafnite Prometium Hyperflurite
ROI above 20%:
Crystallite Alloy Fernite Titanium Chromide Caesarium Cadmide Solerium Ferrofluid Dysporite Neo Mercurite Fluxed Condensates
This however does just take current market values, not their development, into regard.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.11 22:25:00 -
[132]
Edited by: Akita T on 11/11/2009 22:31:12 _
Before I went to sleep yesterday I got some extra moon-scan data overview (somewhat confidential so don't ask) from three regions, out of which two were from the "low coverage" areas on dotlan. Now, if that data was accurate (I don't have any reason to believe otherwise, but you never know), then guess what - ZERO technetium moons in all three of those regions from slightly over 10k listed-as-scanned moons (there were some moons not added to the scan database, so it COULD be theoretically possible some of those were intentionally hidden - or it could be they had nothing on them at all, you can never know).
Here's the breakdown... sums over those three regions...
material : dotlan / new data / difference dysprosium:22/21/-1 promethium:31/31/0 neodymium:42/51/9 thulium:20/31/11 technetium:0/0/0 mercury:39/44/5 hafnium:8/8/0 caesium:19/31/12 platinum:54/136/82 chromium:40/116/76 cadmium:25/44/19 vanadium:32/84/52 scandium:5/9/4 tungsten:5/16/11 cobalt:360/963/603 titanium:3/9/6
Basically, the new data reports one less dysprosium moon, no new promethium moons, a few extra neodymium moons, plenty of extra platinum/chromium/vanadium (not so much extra cadmium though) and a TRUCKLOAD of extra cobalt.
If I was to include the new/adjusted moon data over (you can simply manually enter the new numbers over existing moon numbers in the 3b sheet):
material:before/new dysprosium:135/134 promethium:179/179 neodymium:195/204 thulium:123/134 technetium:230/230 mercury:349/354 hafnium:473/473 caesium:246/258 platinum:887/969 chromium:735/811 cadmium:713/732 vanadium:602/654 scandium:1381/1385 tungsten:1863/1874 cobalt:2429/3032 titanium:965/971
Or if you prefer to just copy-paste the column, here's the copy-pasteable numbers including adjusted "junk moonpoo" estimates, here's the column you should copy-paste in v3b's moon count column below: 134 179 204 134 230 354 473 258 969 811 732 654 1385 1874 3032 971 9000 9000 9000 9000
I'll bet some additional titanium moons do exist in othe regions, but then again the same could go for technetium and maybe even platinum... since all of it seems to be heavily region-biased. At this point, sadly, the moon counts are at best a "guesstimate".
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.11 23:55:00 -
[133]
Originally by: Akita T
technetium100.00% neodymium69.43% platinum62.91% chromium55.41% dysprosium50.92% promethium47.77% mercury46.54% cadmium36.48% vanadium28.05% titanium18.83% hafnium18.14% caesium12.40% evaporite deposits8.65% silicates8.47% tungsten7.27% scandium7.05% thulium5.99% cobalt5.18% atmospheric gasses3.00% hydrocarbons2.82%
I think it's probably fair to say that the % under-reporting of Technetium would be roughly equal to other similar low-value moons.
Anyways, the way this pans out is Plat and Neo drop a little bit, while chromium rises significantly from the previous estimate.
Would it be fair to instead of just adding the unreported moons to the list to take the ratio (or maybe average ratio) of reported vs unreported in these regions and apply that to the total number of moons? Right now we're just adjusting for one large under-reporting, but it might be better to attempt to adjust for the under-reporting trend now that we've got an example of how much the report differs from reality - assuming the new numbers are accurate.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.12 00:13:00 -
[134]
The sheet is already calculating things based on the assumption the rest of the moons follows a similar ratio to what was already reported. I listed below the underreporting percentages needed for on-par-rarity, alongside "equivalent" underreporting amounts (assuming similar coverage in the rest of space but reversed rarity ratios) and absolute underreported amounts (game-wide in uncovered areas).
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.12 01:01:00 -
[135]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 12/11/2009 01:01:03 To return to my quest of raising stuff that i am invested in:
Taking POS fuel into account the following Technetium Products perform with buy order price of raw materials:
PT. Technite: -15.92% ROI Fullerides: -35.63% ROI Nanotransistors: 1.40% ROI
So my conclusion for speculating on a rising TC price is, buy the products.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.11.12 01:33:00 -
[136]
Originally by: Julian Koll To return to my quest of raising stuff that i am invested in:
Taking POS fuel into account the following Technetium Products perform with buy order price of raw materials:
PT. Technite: -15.92% ROI Fullerides: -35.63% ROI Nanotransistors: 1.40% ROI
So my conclusion for speculating on a rising TC price is, buy the products.
Nanotransistors are tricky because they use other high-ends that might go down in price, but the other two are pretty much pure Technetium plays that haven't quite caught up the Technetium itself.
Caveat: I am not invested in them because I'm not so sure of the "OMG Technetium" fever on this thread, and because I mostly missed out on the fun already.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.12 02:19:00 -
[137]
Yeah I suppose you're right, ah well, let's hope CCP doesn't change anything so we can watch Tech skyrocket... though I'd still have liked it if Chromium were to be more valuable
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.12 02:38:00 -
[138]
Well, it might still be fourth most valuable
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Letifer Deus
Total Mayhem. Cry Havoc.
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Posted - 2009.11.12 04:17:00 -
[139]
Originally by: Akita T Well, it might still be fourth most valuable
As long as fourth most valuable is a lot more valuable than what I bought it at, I'll live. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Brought to you by the letter ARRR!" |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.12 09:43:00 -
[140]
Edited by: Akita T on 12/11/2009 09:45:08 _
Following regions previously with low coverage areas that are now confirmed (at much better coverage) as having either zero or just very, very small amounts of technetium-bearing moons :
* Delve (Blood Raiders ) * Detorid (Angels) * The Kalevala Expanse (Rogue Drones) * Omist (Angels) * Period Basis (Blood Raiders) * Scalding Pass (Angels)
Previously known high coverage areas but with very little or no technetium :
* Esoteria (Sanshas) * Feythabolis (Angels) * Fountain (Serpentis) * Immensea (Angels) * Impass (Angels) * Paragon Soul (Sanshas) * Querious (Blood Raiders)
Regions known to have reasonable to high counts of technetium moons :
* Venal (Guristas - 74) * Vale of the Silent (Guristas - 30 or more, probably 40 tops) * Pure Blind (Guristas - 34) * Deklein (Guristas - 29) * Geminate (Guristas - 13 or more, but unlikely above 20) * Black Rise (Caldari lowsec - 17)
That leaves only Tribute, Branch and Tenal as places where relevant quantities of technetium moons MIGHT be available. So the situation actually looks (if it was even at all possible) WORSE than the previous estimates : there's absolutely no chance in hell you can scrounge up even the initially estimated 200-some additional technetium moons out of those. The technetium shortage will be nastier than previously imagined. Only one word : OUCH.
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Verite Rendition
Caldari F.R.E.E. Explorer Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.11.12 11:51:00 -
[141]
Edited by: Verite Rendition on 12/11/2009 11:51:45
Originally by: Akita T
Only one word : OUCH.
As a resident of the North, only one word; Ka-ching!
On a more serious note, I would be significantly surprised if the number of Technetium moons differed from the rest of the R32s by +/- 15%. ---- FREE Explorer Lead Megalomanic EVE Null-Sec Player Influence Map http://dl1.eve-files.com/media/corp/Veritefw/FWinf |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.12 18:25:00 -
[142]
The 9K Tech bubble just burst, buys back down to ~6.1k and sells to 8K
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.13 00:23:00 -
[143]
Originally by: Turiel Demon The 9K Tech bubble just burst, buys back down to ~6.1k and sells to 8K.
Considering the *true* demand is not there yet (it will only start to come shortly after the patch deployment, and take a while to stabilize), and as not everybody is aware a MD forum even exists (well, not actively anyway, hehe), that was to be expected. Prices will no doubt continue a rise/fall cycle that will be repeated at least twice by the time Dominion hits (more and more desperate "late adopter" speculators buying up stocks from people mining technetium, then a horde of technetium miners dumping extra stocks on the market unsure of where the prices will go and trying to take advantage of current price levels, unsure if they'd last), and then do the same a couple of times after Dominion hits, as people "get greedy" against each-other while wearing down their pre-existing stockpiles (the more you hold on to it the more expensive it becomes, but there's a point where you just go "well, this looks like enough cash, I need it fast anyway, and I have no idea how high this might go before CCP comes in and tweaks the numbers again").
_
The only real question is "how long before CCP intervenes?"
* they could do it on SiSi one of the next patches, and this could be the second most likely scenario (so no wonder people are playing "chicken" with the prices : with each-other, and against CCP at the same time)
* they could do it silently between the last SiSi patch and the actual deployment (a bit of a nasty move, to use a mild word here... not completely out of character for CCP though - still, it WOULD be very fun to watch its effects, I'd have to agree)
* they could do it as soon as they notice technetium prices start reaching prices that are "too close for comfort" in the, oh, say, 50k range or thereabouts (estimated to happen a couple of months after the patch) - that's probably the least likely scenario, since CCP takes months to respond to a problem requiring a simple typo correction, let alone something as vital as that... if they haven't done it before the patch, we'll probably have to wait until the next patch for any kind of solution
* they could talk about it when technetium becomes the dominant material and starts overshadowing the former promethium/dysprosium price levels (getting close to 200k per unit) ; then they'll most likely make us wait for some expansion which supposedly fixes that by, say, adding (pre-nerfed) minute traces of high-price moon minerals in comet mining ; then we'll have to wait until they are convinced those changes don't have the effect that they claimed/hoped it would have before they try again by either tweaking amounts or trying some completely different way of adjusting it all ; meanwhile, it will probably be by the winter of 2010 a reasonable solution is reached, and technetium speculators will be drowning in ISK by then and no longer care (I'd like to think this is the most likely scenario, but that would probably be wishful thinking.... right ? hehe)
* they might as well be rolling two D20 daily and only change something about T2 build ratios if they hit double 13s or something like that - beieving that to be the way CCP does things doesn't sound TOO far-fetched right now after looking at other changes they're making in Dominion
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Sophie Daigneau
CAPITAL Assistance in Destruction Society GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.13 01:19:00 -
[144]
Having built one of the first jump freighters, I can tell you they were changing the build materials on those only a few days before deployment. It will be no different with the moon material rebalance.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.13 10:20:00 -
[145]
Originally by: Sophie Daigneau Having built one of the first jump freighters, I can tell you they were changing the build materials on those only a few days before deployment. It will be no different with the moon material rebalance.
I certainly do hope they do that (even if I'm sadly suspecting all my warnings have been like talking to a brick wall) - while it wouldn't be bad to make a truckload of ISK patch-day-trading, it would suck to live in a world where 0.0 is even more screwed up than it is today due to even more valuable "bil ISK per month" moons (especially since they would be mostly clustered in the north).
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.13 11:24:00 -
[146]
Well, I would hope CCP won't change anything at the currenty SISI numbers and that those numbers go live to TQ.
Why?
Because it would be a great experiement in market theory. It also will add a lot of possibilites for speculations. And it opens up wide doors for unbalances. Unbalances are good in my opinion - they create turbulances and interesting opportunities and gameplay.
If it turns out that the inbalances are to big, CCP can always adjust numbers, even between the expansions.
Now a really big thanks to Akita T for all the work in compiling the numbers, the analysis and all the work :-) Though I don't agree with Akita often, the presented stuff here still is a lot of work and earns respect and thanks.
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Eisonar
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Posted - 2009.11.13 12:01:00 -
[147]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Sophie Daigneau Having built one of the first jump freighters, I can tell you they were changing the build materials on those only a few days before deployment. It will be no different with the moon material rebalance.
I certainly do hope they do that (even if I'm sadly suspecting all my warnings have been like talking to a brick wall) - while it wouldn't be bad to make a truckload of ISK patch-day-trading, it would suck to live in a world where 0.0 is even more screwed up than it is today due to even more valuable "bil ISK per month" moons (especially since they would be mostly clustered in the north).
Shhhhhh :P
Let 'em change it a week or two after the patch
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.11.13 17:09:00 -
[148]
Edited by: Tiberizzle on 13/11/2009 17:15:10
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Sophie Daigneau Having built one of the first jump freighters, I can tell you they were changing the build materials on those only a few days before deployment. It will be no different with the moon material rebalance.
I certainly do hope they do that (even if I'm sadly suspecting all my warnings have been like talking to a brick wall) - while it wouldn't be bad to make a truckload of ISK patch-day-trading, it would suck to live in a world where 0.0 is even more screwed up than it is today due to even more valuable "bil ISK per month" moons (especially since they would be mostly clustered in the north).
imo, 0.0 sucks because it's less profitable than Empire activities (trading, L4 running). Overpriced moon minerals are one of the few good reasons to bother with 0.0, and nerfing moon minerals just means that 0.0 receives less attention. Juggling the high value minerals around disrupts the political equilibrium, giving newer alliances a chance to ninja a slice of the pie without ruining the work they've done to bring people to 0.0. They don't have to fix it permanently, they just have to shake it up until the next patch.
What's the down side of the new mineral balance? Plus, I want a fat sack of ISK post patch, so let's quit agitating for profit nerfs kthx
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.13 18:19:00 -
[149]
Ours is not to reason why...
by my estimate about 12b worth of Tech just disappeared off the market, the ceiling is gone...
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Larkonis TrassIer
Neo Spartans Laconian Syndicate
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Posted - 2009.11.13 18:35:00 -
[150]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Ours is not to reason why...
by my estimate about 12b worth of Tech just disappeared off the market, the ceiling is gone...
Move along, nothin to see here.
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Amantus
Gallente Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.13 19:03:00 -
[151]
Hi guys what's going on. ------------
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.13 19:04:00 -
[152]
The weekend has started boys and girls, someone pushed Tech to 34k and Platinum Technites to 13k
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.13 19:10:00 -
[153]
Originally by: Amantus Hi guys what's going on.
It's like they're letting just anyone in here these days
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.13 20:08:00 -
[154]
Someone pushed Tech upwards a lot....although, given my own calculations, it won't stay that high for long. In the past 2 months, there has been a VERY LARGE drop in Technetium being put onto markets- hence the supply APPEARS now to be scarce. I estimate that there is about 40-80 million units sitting in hangers awaiting Dominion, if not significantly more...market manipulation on a large scale to be sure.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.13 20:25:00 -
[155]
Originally by: Treji I estimate that there is about 40-80 million units sitting in hangers awaiting Dominion
That's barely enough for 2-4 month's worth of finished T2 items Jita trades (post-Dominion)... let alone game-wide.
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.13 20:32:00 -
[156]
Your assuming a couple things:
1. Numbers for Reqs, as indicated by SiSi, are similar to what will happen and;
2. CCP won't realise that they have replaced Dysprosium problem with Technetium problem.
Point 2 seems to me to be the most relevant; CCP aren't idiots, despite what some players of lesser intelligence may think!
Your numbers will also be based on a snapshot of the markets I expect. Since technetium supply appears, from calcs, to have been PURPOSEFULLY limited the past 2-3 months at least, and player/s have large stocks, it may appear there is a shortage and potential bottleneck...but CCP will know, since they have exact moon numbers etc, the true picture.
I can only assume you have vast Technetium stocks, hence have a vested interest in talking it upwards :)
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:13:00 -
[157]
Originally by: Treji Your numbers will also be based on a snapshot of the markets I expect. Since technetium supply appears, from calcs, to have been PURPOSEFULLY limited the past 2-3 months at least, and player/s have large stocks, it may appear there is a shortage and potential bottleneck...but CCP will know, since they have exact moon numbers etc, the true picture.
You expectations are not correct.
The supply of technetium is based on the total available known moons and pretty optimistic numbers of unknown moons.
The demand of technetium is based on medium term average amount of t2 ships and t2 items traded IN JITA ONLY.
So all in all, the supply situation is pretty optimistic with high numbers, the demand situation is pretty low. Also don't forget that there will be lots of pew pew after Dominion and probably lots of the high end moon mining pos will get shot at, but that is a different topic.
The only real unknown is how CCP will react and if they will pull the current numbers from Sisi to TQ. I don't see why they shouldn't do that for a while and change it after some time and if the situation gets dramatic.
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:18:00 -
[158]
Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 21:20:36 It may be based on CURRENT or EXPECTED usage...thats my point, since Sisi numbers are never really useful for much before large expansions. Technetium numbers will be tweaked, especially given that CCP realise that Technetium may just replace Dysprosium etc as a problem. I'm sure they aren't that stupid, tbh
There is still a vast quantity of technetium in hangers, which will flood onto markets after the expansion...
If there was going to be a genuine shortage and bottleneck, I'd expect to see Technetium up around 160k a unit about now....
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Asasham
Caldari Quintessential Teldar Paper
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:19:00 -
[159]
Originally by: Treji Your assuming a couple things:
1. Numbers for Reqs, as indicated by SiSi, are similar to what will happen and;
2. CCP won't realise that they have replaced Dysprosium problem with Technetium problem.
Point 2 seems to me to be the most relevant; CCP aren't idiots, despite what some players of lesser intelligence may think!
Your numbers will also be based on a snapshot of the markets I expect. Since technetium supply appears, from calcs, to have been PURPOSEFULLY limited the past 2-3 months at least, and player/s have large stocks, it may appear there is a shortage and potential bottleneck...but CCP will know, since they have exact moon numbers etc, the true picture.
I can only assume you have vast Technetium stocks, hence have a vested interest in talking it upwards :)
1. Did you even read this thread? 2. Have you seen how long it historically takes CCP to fix things?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:24:00 -
[160]
Edited by: Akita T on 13/11/2009 21:25:29
Originally by: Treji Your assuming CCP won't realise that they have replaced Dysprosium problem with Technetium problem. CCP aren't idiots, despite what some players of lesser intelligence may think!
Oh... let's mention just a few (in)famous examples... yes, there are many more, but those you should at least remember because they were either famous, pretty obvious and/or long-running: * tractor beam BPO stealth announcement in patchnotes and subsequent change cancellations * adding highend-heavy "mining with weapons" drone regions, then systematically removing cheap NPC supply of tritanium wondering why tritanium goes up like that and why lowsec mining sucks, only to somewhat fix that after "only" two years of problems by ramping up Veldspar availability in highsec belts * heavily pre-nerfed salvage drop rates, supposed to make rigs somewhat affordable to most people, took them a good while (months) to balance drop rates somewhat, and again nearly two years to realize that, well, they really DO need to make them ship-size-dependent... and still drop rates are heavily skewed (most salvage drops are either "pretty good" or "nearly worthless") * the T3 "ancient salvage" debacle - from way too little to way too much, the epic story of NIMs and nanoribbons (among other things) * the complete failure to quickly notice, acknowledge and correct the fact alchemy was simply not working ; also, related to the same issue, the failure to promptly realize exploits were in place and generating rare stuff out of thin air when a lot of people were baffled by inconsistencies in prices related to those materials
Yeah, CCP might not be idiots, but they sure do have a nice track record of... well... doing that sort of stuff.
Originally by: Treji If there was going to be a genuine shortage and bottleneck, I'd expect to see Technetium up around 160k a unit about now....
People are unsure on whether CCP will go ahead "as is" or not, and the actual demand still has nearly 3 weeks to go before it arrives.
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:24:00 -
[161]
Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 21:31:53 Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 21:27:16 Not only have I read this thread (which seems to be a method to increase the price of minerals to enable some players to cash in their stocks...), I have followed the mineral markets closely for 4 years and done my own analysis of usage.
All past expansions have had indications on Sisi during testing which have changed at release, sometimes drastically. CCP aren't going to just change the source of a high-end moon problem that the 0.0 changes are in part designed to overcome...try kidding others that they may do, so you can sell your stocks at high prices by all means...
On a side note, alchemy worked, it just wasn't that profitable, if at all. This was due, in part, to the reactant minerals getting pushed high by market forces and speculation, and in part kept high by alliances that sold the moon minerals onto the markets so they could continue to get high prices.
I'm pretty sure that CCP will not go ahead with numbers on BPO as they currently are. Its always funny how speculators won't put their isk where their mouth is...oh wait, they paid just 1400 a unit for Technetium....
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:34:00 -
[162]
Originally by: Treji CCP aren't going to just change the source of a high-end moon problem that the 0.0 changes are in part designed to overcome
Wasn't that more or less my point, that they NEED to change the SiSi data ASAP ? Granted, my other point was that if they don't do it, the situation would look like <description>.
By the way, have you even tried to see what kind of changes WOULD be needed to make technetium (and/or platinum and/or chromium and/or neodymium) NOT the new bottleneck ? You should probably get the Excel sheet and play with it to see how ridiculously radical all those changes would have to be. Technetium is linked with neodymium in most things, and the only thing it's more prominent is in capacitors, so you'd need a pretty damn heavy (proportional) reduction in those, coupled with an increase in other neodymium-containing components to compensate, then that would have a cascade effect on other things so you'd also need to adjust not just T2 component amounts but also the construction requirements of other types of T2 components, then rejiggle the T2 components amounts and so on and so forth.
Meanwhile, even if they go ahead to how things are now, technetium might take until late spring to become a problem due to pre-existing stocks, so it's not like there's any urgency whatsoever in CCP's eyes to change anything... and, you know how the story with the frog in the slowly boiling water goes, don't you ?
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:40:00 -
[163]
Of course, they could just play with the alchemy reactions...
They aren't likely to change Sisi data for BPO builds- this isn't likely to be a source of bugs/fixes etc, since its just changing numbers for build requirements. CCP will have run their own analysis and devised a solution, which we will see when Dominion becomes live.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:45:00 -
[164]
Originally by: Treji On a side note, alchemy worked, it just wasn't that profitable, if at all.
I call that not working and a failure.
Alchemy was designed to cap the r64 prices. It never worked like that.
And then the pos exploit debacle...
LATEST after that event they should have seriously revisited alchemy because the whole alchemy numbers were based on were completely wrong numbers. Nothing like this happend.
But yeah, alchemy worked in a way .. you could set up a pos and use the reactions and you would actually get something! lol
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Sophie Daigneau
CAPITAL Assistance in Destruction Society GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:50:00 -
[165]
Originally by: Akita T
By the way, have you even tried to see what kind of changes WOULD be needed to make technetium (and/or platinum and/or chromium and/or neodymium) NOT the new bottleneck ? You should probably get the Excel sheet and play with it to see how ridiculously radical all those changes would have to be.
What if they just swapped out thulium for one of the existing reactions requiring dysprosium?
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:50:00 -
[166]
Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 21:50:46 You'd only call that a failure if you were looking to make vast iskies from sales. Making the products to use in hard to reach locations, some with with variable entrances/exits, is another matter...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.13 21:59:00 -
[167]
Originally by: Treji Of course, they could just play with the alchemy reactions...
They would need to ADD new alchemy reactions - technetium is not involved in any of the current ones.
Originally by: Gnulpie Alchemy was designed to cap the r64 prices. It never worked like that.
Of course not... when the "linking" is done at 1/20 of valuable material's price + portion of 19 extra hours of fuel, all you do get is a ramping up of the "low" material price to a more-or-less breakeven level and negligible effect on the "high" material price. Even the current SiSi 1/5 + 4 hours extra numbers don't make much sense once you also consider the rest of the changes.
Originally by: Sophie Daigneau What if they just swapped out thulium for one of the existing reactions requiring dysprosium?
If they go that route they might as well rework ALL reactions to make any subsequent changes much more viable (like, say, having each type of T2 component "eating up" vast quantities of only certain tiers of materials and negligible quantities of everything else - that way you can very finely balance prices later by tweaking only T2 component counts slightly).
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.13 22:03:00 -
[168]
I can't see anything anywhere that says they aren't adding new reactions ;)
They have also been very quiet on system belts and upgrades to mining...expect changes
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.13 22:15:00 -
[169]
Originally by: Treji I can't see anything anywhere that says they aren't adding new reactions ;)
They'd make a big fuss about it if they would. They did make a big fuss about changing from 20 to 5 ratios in existing reactions. Well, not so big, but you get the idea, it was announced.
Quote: They have also been very quiet on system belts and upgrades to mining...expect changes
Yeah, we've been expecting those for longer than two years... so, not really expecting much right now. Their changes are to exploration content ore in sov-holding systems only for the time being. If there would be any changes there, they certainly won't be in Dominion... spring/summer 2010, maybe. Now, no chance.
Seriously, they said they are dropping the AB change to AFs (which was already in) because they "wanted to also change rockets at the same time" (as if it's a big deal to do so, seriously) and "they can't do it because they don't have the time". Let me repeat that : NO CHANCE.
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.14 13:14:00 -
[170]
Just came online and had a look at certain materials and had to laugh and laugh and laugh. If someone wants to jump the train, have a look the the corresponding advanced materials... price change has not reached them yet.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.14 14:30:00 -
[171]
Originally by: Julian Koll Just came online and had a look at certain materials and had to laugh and laugh and laugh. If someone wants to jump the train, have a look the the corresponding advanced materials... price change has not reached them yet.
Yesterday the platinum technite went up pretty quickly after technetium price exploded.
Subsequently today the Fullerides market got pushed up heavily, Nanotransistors going slowly up also.
Sure there is lots and lots of hot isk in the market and speculation heating up the prices additonally. Still pretty interesting times :-)
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.11.14 14:31:00 -
[172]
Originally by: Akita T
* they could [change moon compsitions] silently between the last SiSi patch and the actual deployment (a bit of a nasty move, to use a mild word here... not completely out of character for CCP though - still, it WOULD be very fun to watch its effects, I'd have to agree)
[edit for clarity --A_K]
My money is still on this result, if the moon content data is easily changed. (Yes, I know, 'big if.' Trying hard not to be too cynical about the whole thing.)
They already have some track record of this though (i.e. the Veld respawn rate as mentioned a few posts up). I also have personal experience with this kind of dev-change happening in other environments/games; It's sadly common in this space.
--A_K
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.14 22:10:00 -
[173]
Originally by: Alain Kinsella My money is still on this result, if the moon content data is easily changed. (Yes, I know, 'big if.'
No, not just a big if... a HUGE if. An if so big as the galaxy. You'd have more chances of us getting jovian as playable race and +7 implants on the market than to have CCP change the moon-mineral compositions in k-space moons, and very little chances of adding any minerals to w-space moons.
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.14 23:22:00 -
[174]
Looks like a lot of people are trying to cash out on Tech now that it went past 10K, someone with a big stock (the 580K order) seems particularly desperate to move it, he's moved it down in massive increments all day trying to match every 1000 unit order that undercuts by 4k, taking the price from 30K to 16K pretty much single-handedly heh
Ah well... I expect someone will take it off his hands as soon as it gets down close to 10k again
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Roemy Schneider
Vanishing Point.
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Posted - 2009.11.15 00:16:00 -
[175]
i've had my fun with platinum, leaking it back into the market aswell. i made more money than with phased weapon painters after the missile rework.
it's gotten ridiculously easy to pick off tens of billions with the help of sisi and it really seems they don't give a rat's arse about veteran input. so, for me, the question has become what good sisi does, especially with the new concept, the 11th-hour-screw-ups. don't get me wrong, i'd embrace any alteration to the upcoming moon goo stuff at this stage, considering how skewed it is towards a geographical north; heck, i'd still favor a complete abundance reshuffle (and one more week of sov grace period to get probin') - putting the gist back into logistics |
Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.11.15 03:27:00 -
[176]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Looks like a lot of people are trying to cash out on Tech now that it went past 10K, someone with a big stock (the 580K order) seems particularly desperate to move it, he's moved it down in massive increments all day trying to match every 1000 unit order that undercuts by 4k, taking the price from 30K to 16K pretty much single-handedly heh
Ah well... I expect someone will take it off his hands as soon as it gets down close to 10k again
re: that order
Initial Vol579,300 Vol Remaining 579,300
lulz
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Vasta Magna
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Posted - 2009.11.15 05:07:00 -
[177]
This thread is killing me. I was on shortly after the Technetium analysis was posted and I had a chance to buy large amounts at around 5k. But it was late for me and I was drunk, and I thought it would be folly to impulse buy off a public post. I put in a tiny buy order that was never filled.
Then I woke up and it was at 10k, and I almost started drinking again on the spot Missed. The. Boat.
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zacuis
Great Big Research
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Posted - 2009.11.15 13:18:00 -
[178]
i have bought into this. but not massively. cos there is a little voice inside my head that keeps telling me to have faith the devs will change it all at the last minute. and t2 prices will plummet like they promised. there is another little voice tho that keeps pointing out there past history in such matters.
it might well be a good thing if they dont fix the moon goo problem with this patch. because after reading the system upgrades they would be removing the only financial reason to stay in 0.0. perhaps when they add the ability to add agents to outposts. they should have another crack at it.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.15 13:36:00 -
[179]
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Turiel Demon Looks like a lot of people are trying to cash out on Tech now that it went past 10K, someone with a big stock (the 580K order) seems particularly desperate to move it, he's moved it down in massive increments all day trying to match every 1000 unit order that undercuts by 4k, taking the price from 30K to 16K pretty much single-handedly heh
Ah well... I expect someone will take it off his hands as soon as it gets down close to 10k again
re: that order
Initial Vol579,300 Vol Remaining 579,300
lulz
Why must you mock my dreams of piles of isk
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.16 01:22:00 -
[180]
There's plenty of stockpiles of every "low use" moon mineral out there... soon after prices go up enough, somebody in charge of those stockpiles will find a way to get them to the market and fill most of the high buy orders. That's why I said heavy up/down fluctuations even before the patch are nothing unusual... just make sure you buy on the downswing and sell on the upswing
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2009.11.16 10:33:00 -
[181]
Edited by: Le Skunk on 16/11/2009 10:33:20 Taking Akita Ts advice has netted me 2 billion profit so far in plates and processors and i still have stocks.
The only bum note was chromimum which isn't doing anything as of yet. But maybe later
Cheers
SKUNK
(o)
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.16 16:10:00 -
[182]
So, after reading through the forum and this thread it seems as if Technetium is going to be an excellent buy barring any radical changes to the eve moon mining system.
However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)
Is this just from Market fear? It seems that we are mainly speculating against CCP at this point, whether we think they will change the distribution.
People have mentioned a few more minerals. Such as neodyium, platinum and chromium. What are your opinions on those?
I am doing some more research, but thinking of dropping a few bil into tech and holding it until Dominion REGARDLESS of what happens. Anyone have any thoughts on that?
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Telta
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Posted - 2009.11.16 16:24:00 -
[183]
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.11.16 17:04:00 -
[184]
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor So, after reading through the forum and this thread it seems as if Technetium is going to be an excellent buy barring any radical changes to the eve moon mining system.
However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)
Is this just from Market fear? It seems that we are mainly speculating against CCP at this point, whether we think they will change the distribution.
People have mentioned a few more minerals. Such as neodyium, platinum and chromium. What are your opinions on those?
I am doing some more research, but thinking of dropping a few bil into tech and holding it until Dominion REGARDLESS of what happens. Anyone have any thoughts on that?
I think at this point it's a pretty safe bet that we're not going to see a change to blueprints on Singularity before Dominion. It follows that the price will probably be trending upwards (with some fluctuation) at least until Dominion. Beyond Dominion there is some uncertainty, but it does appear that Technetium has more room to rise than it does to fall at 10K/unit. Assuming the risk amounts to a coin flip and the maximum projected increase in value, it's a good bet up to around 20K/unit, where the proportional loss and gain are roughly equal (a factor of 10 in either direction). At above 20K/unit you would want more certainty than a coin flip to justify the reward.
If you decide to gamble I would do it sooner rather than later. It's still a reasonably good bet now, but it's probably not going to be in another week.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.16 18:16:00 -
[185]
Quote: However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)
Someone cleared all the levels between 9k and 30k the other day and it came down fast and hard afterwards. Although I did get a few sold at 25k , I dont think many others did. In less than 24 hours it was down to 16k. So best not to think that it really traded at 30 because there could not have been many "prints" between 30 and 20 on the way down.
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.16 19:05:00 -
[186]
Any thoughts on:
neodyium, platinum and chromium ?
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.16 20:44:00 -
[187]
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor Any thoughts on:
neodyium, platinum and chromium ?
Your right. I'd put the selling at 9-12k right now/ore. After looking through all the market analysis and market data, I can't see it dropping below that even worst case scenario. Not to mention the serious speculation that will probably come on patch day/2-3 days before patch.
I went ahead and nabbed some Technetium. Even if CCP does a silent change(which I believe is the best bet @ this point(if anything will be changed) and also worse case scenario).
I an now contemplating whether it is worth it to dive into Neody/Plat. Going to be doing some more research, I'd like to diversify, but if tech can even hit 20k/pop I will have made a nice profit.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.11.16 22:58:00 -
[188]
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor Any thoughts on:
neodyium, platinum and chromium ?
ahaha, failed double post.
That said, I'm making a small play (all my own (non-moon-mineral) plays/long-term investments are tied up/finished and I had some extra capital). What I did was buy a bunch of neo and then bought 10% of that in technetium (actually, fullerites, to be accurate).
The point is, if status quo is preserved, tech prices rise high enough to pay back any losses on the neo with the tech/fullerits.
If CCP nerfs tech, neo becomes one of the next bottlenecks (albeit a much, much less tight one), neo goes up and my losses on tech are relatively insiginificant.
If CCP nerfs both I'm screwed, but, didn't invest more than I can afford to lose so will hurt but not that terrible.
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.11.16 23:07:00 -
[189]
Originally by: EvilCheez
Quote: However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)
Someone cleared all the levels between 9k and 30k the other day and it came down fast and hard afterwards. Although I did get a few sold at 25k , I dont think many others did. In less than 24 hours it was down to 16k. So best not to think that it really traded at 30 because there could not have been many "prints" between 30 and 20 on the way down.
Yeah, I think the volume that actually moved at prices over 30K was less than 100K. I was too far out to short it at 35K, sadly. It was already down to 16K when I got there.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.11.16 23:25:00 -
[190]
Edited by: Mahke on 16/11/2009 23:24:56
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: EvilCheez
Quote: However the price has also been fluctuating lately (between 8-30k it seems)
Someone cleared all the levels between 9k and 30k the other day and it came down fast and hard afterwards. Although I did get a few sold at 25k , I dont think many others did. In less than 24 hours it was down to 16k. So best not to think that it really traded at 30 because there could not have been many "prints" between 30 and 20 on the way down.
Yeah, I think the volume that actually moved at prices over 30K was less than 100K. I was too far out to short it at 35K, sadly. It was already down to 16K when I got there.
I was buying then (but fullerides, not tech). Almost nothing sold because holding constant costs of other components and pretending cost of reacting is free (lol), fulleride prices implied a tech price of 14-15k during that price spike on tech.
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Aresse
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Posted - 2009.11.16 23:25:00 -
[191]
Originally by: Mahke Edited by: Mahke on 16/11/2009 23:07:50
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor Any thoughts on:
neodyium, platinum and chromium ?
ahaha, failed double post.
That said, I'm making a small play (all my own (non-moon-mineral) plays/long-term investments are tied up/finished and I had some extra capital). What I did was buy a bunch of neo and then bought 10% of that in technetium (actually, fullerites, to be accurate).
The point is, if status quo is preserved, tech prices rise high enough to pay back any losses on the neo with the tech/fullerits.
If CCP nerfs tech, neo becomes one of the next bottlenecks (albeit a much, much less tight one), neo goes up and my losses on tech are relatively insiginificant.
If CCP nerfs both I'm screwed, but, didn't invest more than I can afford to lose so will hurt but not that terrible.
edit: apparently neo is slightly up (4% or so, not huge). Fullerides jumped from 280 to 325, and tech went down to 10k, so I sold my fullerides and rebought my insurance in technetium.
know I'm late to this party but whatever, this is a long-term play, I can afford to wait the months until enough stockpiles run out that dys/pros aren't the bottlenecks anymore (and enjoy the golden age of cheap t2 pvp in the meantime).
Buying @ ~2k p/u = teh sex.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.11.16 23:36:00 -
[192]
Edited by: Mahke on 16/11/2009 23:36:02
Originally by: Aresse
Buying @ ~2k p/u = teh sex.
Yup.
Had decided to jump the bandwagon at about 5-6k, in the morning, went to sleep, and prices had surged through the ceiling.
Oh well. Good for you though .
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.17 00:00:00 -
[193]
Right now I am considering whether it is worth it to diversify into Chromium, right now I am accumulating Tech/Plat/Neo.
From all my reading and research I feel Chromium is the worst buy of the "four" minerals right now.
I will have about 5.5 bil into the mineral market when all said in done with:
65% Tech 20% Neo 15% Plat
I am actually thinking about raising it up to 6-7 and dumping some more into Neo as a safeguard to tech.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.17 00:43:00 -
[194]
hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now? I see ppl just start coming back. nothing to say at this moment. |
Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.17 01:04:00 -
[195]
If the changes in SiSi go live, I feel there is still quite a bit of room for growth.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.17 01:42:00 -
[196]
Originally by: xylopia hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now?
Well, there's still 2 weeks to go and prices are nowhere near where they could be if all goes as seen on SiSi, so there's plenty of room left
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Sophie Daigneau
CAPITAL Assistance in Destruction Society GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.17 03:57:00 -
[197]
I'm shocked at the number of people who trade based on speculation that a terrible change on sisi will continue all the way until release.
I guess that proves the old adage correct; "The markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain liquid."
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.17 04:57:00 -
[198]
Originally by: Sophie Daigneau I'm shocked at the number of people who trade based on speculation that a terrible change on sisi will continue all the way until release.
I guess that proves the old adage correct; "The markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain liquid."
Don't you want moar and moar people to become uncontrollably irrational and impulsive to a point where even a barely week-old player holds up some of those yellow moon-goo and singing while all you have is bling-bling iskies? yeah that's right. enjoy the ride and expect unexpected. Who knows what awaits us just around corner? nothing to say at this moment. |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.17 05:10:00 -
[199]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: xylopia hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now?
Well, there's still 2 weeks to go and prices are nowhere near where they could be if all goes as seen on SiSi, so there's plenty of room left
Undoubtedly. nothing to say at this moment. |
Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.17 06:12:00 -
[200]
Originally by: xylopia Edited by: xylopia on 17/11/2009 05:35:03
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: xylopia hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now?
Well, there's still 2 weeks to go and prices are nowhere near where they could be if all goes as seen on SiSi, so there's plenty of room left
Undoubtedly. Although you might need a little more than iskies if you look at market history.
Still nowhere near a shortage. And with probably a several month supply out there, you have to ask how people are going to unload it efficiently to builders. Its all going to end up on the Jita market after the patch and people are going to .01 isk for a while, then some people are going to freak out and start undercutting. Then it will crash. Then the dust will settle and it will creep around until there is an actual shortage with periodic manipulations. Time to full balance is 6 months maybe to see the final price level. That's if history is any guide. A promise of a shortage in the future only can do so much. Present reality means something too. The price may go up to 30k, then try to sell a weeks worth of Jita at one time when 10 other people do the same. Then see what the price is after that. You won't like it. You will need to buy and hold for 2 months to make the gains that are melting your brains right now. There are risks with that. No one is producing with current speculation, its just traders selling to traders. Its a bubble market.
Stop thinking price now, and think price with risk. What is the likely upside and what is the downside risk. I think at 10 to 15k they are about equal, double your money or see it cut in half.
Also, lack of alchemy indicates something is going on, why no alchemy on this, why switch to this now and leave a dyspro like bottleneck, it doesn't add up. People paying over 15k are not thinking right.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.17 07:37:00 -
[201]
Originally by: Tesal
Still nowhere near a shortage. And with probably a several month supply out there, you have to ask how people are going to unload it efficiently to builders. Its all going to end up on the Jita market after the patch and people are going to .01 isk for a while, then some people are going to freak out and start undercutting. Then it will crash. Then the dust will settle and it will creep around until there is an actual shortage with periodic manipulations. Time to full balance is 6 months maybe to see the final price level. That's if history is any guide. A promise of a shortage in the future only can do so much. Present reality means something too. The price may go up to 30k, then try to sell a weeks worth of Jita at one time when 10 other people do the same. Then see what the price is after that. You won't like it. You will need to buy and hold for 2 months to make the gains that are melting your brains right now. There are risks with that. No one is producing with current speculation, its just traders selling to traders. Its a bubble market.
It's been just like that more than gazillion times before. Still, ppl fall into that day after day after day. Unfortunately, what you shout out in this thread would not even make a dent at all. People like you know better than that? then why bother? Just enjoy the show and make iskies. nothing to say at this moment. |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.17 17:50:00 -
[202]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 17/11/2009 17:50:44 Just updated my spreadsheet with current buy order prices for raw materials, current sell orders for advanced ones and again calculated 150m/m per simple reaction and 300m/m per complex reaction for the pos fuel. ROI is as follows:
Tungsten Carbide 45.81% Titanium Carbide 68.49% Fernite Carbide 88.91% Crystalline Carbonide 41.15% Slyramic Fibers 53.89% Fullerides -20.92% Phenolic Composits 25.01% Nanotransistors 27.57% Hypersynaptic Fibers 16.91% Ferrogel 15.02% Fermionic Condensates 21.66%
The big question is, looking at those highly profitable reaction chains and the one operating at a loss, if either the raw materials involved or the advanced material produced are out of line.
The spreadsheet i use is this one: http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/reaction_blank.rar Just type in the numbers you deem correct (buy, sell, whatever). Edit: It might not be working on MS Office. Tried it this weekend at my friends PC and it did not convert the formulas.
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.17 18:58:00 -
[203]
Edited by: Dahkare Raynor on 17/11/2009 19:03:58
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: xylopia Edited by: xylopia on 17/11/2009 05:35:03
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: xylopia hey, isn't pre-patch market speculation supposed to be over by now?
Well, there's still 2 weeks to go and prices are nowhere near where they could be if all goes as seen on SiSi, so there's plenty of room left
Undoubtedly. Although you might need a little more than iskies if you look at market history.
Still nowhere near a shortage. And with probably a several month supply out there, you have to ask how people are going to unload it efficiently to builders. Its all going to end up on the Jita market after the patch and people are going to .01 isk for a while, then some people are going to freak out and start undercutting. Then it will crash. Then the dust will settle and it will creep around until there is an actual shortage with periodic manipulations. Time to full balance is 6 months maybe to see the final price level. That's if history is any guide. A promise of a shortage in the future only can do so much. Present reality means something too. The price may go up to 30k, then try to sell a weeks worth of Jita at one time when 10 other people do the same. Then see what the price is after that. You won't like it. You will need to buy and hold for 2 months to make the gains that are melting your brains right now. There are risks with that. No one is producing with current speculation, its just traders selling to traders. Its a bubble market.
Stop thinking price now, and think price with risk. What is the likely upside and what is the downside risk. I think at 10 to 15k they are about equal, double your money or see it cut in half.
Also, lack of alchemy indicates something is going on, why no alchemy on this, why switch to this now and leave a dyspro like bottleneck, it doesn't add up. People paying over 15k are not thinking right.
Isn't this essentially what any type of speculation/investment is? Judging risk vs money. At this point if CCP either:
A. Continues with the current changes.
B. Ninja changes without telling us - Introduce some unknown variable at patch day.
C. Changes it a month or two after dominion.
If any of those conditions arise, there will be money to be made at anyone who bought at a low enough price.(I agree, spending 15k on it is a bad risk/reward estimate in my opinion.) I believe the price has a very strong chance of shooting up to 20-30k if any of these above scenarios take place. Even if they introduce something that totally negates it at patch day, the speculation is going to shoot it up there by then regardless. The closer we get without any patch changes the higher it will rise, imho.
The scenario that worries me the most is Eve releasing a patch on SiSi or changing it on SiSi. In that case the best scenario is hope you are diversified and try to unload it before everyone else can. If this happens I am instant unloading for a estimated -500 or 600 mil profit. I can live with that.
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.11.17 21:33:00 -
[204]
Edited by: Tiberizzle on 17/11/2009 21:35:25 On this very same page I discussed the risk value. He clearly didn't read that bit. Judging from the repetitious, discontinuous, and generally emotional nature of his post I'm going to guess that he's just QQing because he didn't get in at 2K
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.17 22:16:00 -
[205]
I didn't get in @ 2k either, and granted back then the risk was MUCH less, if any.
Now 10k we are at fairly reasonable risk reward ratio.
I think with a solid exit plan one can stand to make excellent money though.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.17 23:36:00 -
[206]
Hm, anyone else notice Armor plates, especially Tungsten Carbide, just take a spike? What's that all about?
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steveid
Helljumpers
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Posted - 2009.11.18 01:37:00 -
[207]
the only thing i'm suprised about is the plex market isn't under speculation. You all know when a winter expansion comes we get another 5k players. You think they are gonna mine their isk? Expect plex prices to dip below 200 mil. Inappropriate signature removed. Zymurgist |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.18 01:42:00 -
[208]
Originally by: steveid the only thing i'm suprised about is the plex market isn't under speculation. You all know when a winter expansion comes we get another 5k players. You think they are gonna mine their isk? Expect plex prices to dip below 200 mil.
Sadly, in EVE, we lack the means to short-sell... and PLEX are a peculiar type of item (generated by spending cash, not gained in-game)... so even if that would be true and the PLEX market would be swamped by additional supply in the near future, there is nothing to be done about it now (which could generate any profits).
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We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.18 03:20:00 -
[209]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: steveid the only thing i'm suprised about is the plex market isn't under speculation. You all know when a winter expansion comes we get another 5k players. You think they are gonna mine their isk? Expect plex prices to dip below 200 mil.
Sadly, in EVE, we lack the means to short-sell... and PLEX are a peculiar type of item (generated by spending cash, not gained in-game)... so even if that would be true and the PLEX market would be swamped by additional supply in the near future, there is nothing to be done about it now (which could generate any profits).
Cheap motherships of doom = lots of plex.
Why nobody mentioning Hulks. Probably a lot more Hulks than Golems. Build costs are changed like Marauders.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.18 07:10:00 -
[210]
Anyone notice that the platinum market has shot up to 2400 Sell/2000 Buy.(like within 12 hours)
It had been hovering @ 1880 Sell/1800 Buy.
Thoughts?
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Ariel Demon
Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.18 17:02:00 -
[211]
Edited by: Ariel Demon on 18/11/2009 17:47:50 <-- accidental Turiel alt post
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor Anyone notice that the platinum market has shot up to 2400 Sell/2000 Buy.(like within 12 hours)
It had been hovering @ 1880 Sell/1800 Buy.
Thoughts?
I expect it's just another small-ish scale manipulation, there's a lot of them around like the racial armor plates I mentioned the other day. Neodymium also jumped by another 1K, but that was pretty much expected given the steady sequence of rises its been showing - chromium had decent rise too but the buy orders pretty much all got killed fairly quickly by people off-loading stock.
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Triladir
Gallente SPORADIC MOVEMENT Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.11.18 22:50:00 -
[212]
Edited by: Triladir on 18/11/2009 22:51:46 The real winners are the humble, hard working folk like me who mine rather than buy/sell this stuff...
The more you guys manipulate the market up the more my moon goo and reaction products sell for. The fuel costs are going down but the mineral prices are going up... Makes me a happy, happy camper
Thanks guys - you're champs...
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Captain Nao
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Posted - 2009.11.19 00:09:00 -
[213]
Check this article. Article from FDA for Technetium shortage.
http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugSafety/PostmarketDrugSafetyInformationforPatientsandProviders/ucm176226.htm
Oops wrong forum..?
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.19 01:26:00 -
[214]
Platinum market seems to be going down again. There's just no demand for it as is. Pure speculation increased the price by over 1000/unit(from 18-28). Amazing to watch, Cashed in on about 150mil.
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Ariel Demon
Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.19 01:32:00 -
[215]
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor Platinum market seems to be going down again. There's just no demand for it as is. Pure speculation increased the price by over 1000/unit(from 18-28). Amazing to watch, Cashed in on about 150mil.
Dunno what market you're looking at but Jita Plat just saw a buying-spree/manipulation in the last 48 hours that took sell orders up from 1900 to 2800, and buy orders are over 2000. It's quite possible that it's gone up too high and will subsequently stall and crash again, but I expect plat will stay over 1500 at least until dominion hits - probably higher - and then it will rise some more.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.19 04:45:00 -
[216]
People are setting up tripwire orders all over the place. Tiny orders so they can track prices.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.19 05:20:00 -
[217]
I agree, it will stay above 1500, I bought @ 1800 and sold to buy orders @ 2100, but I guarantee it won't maintain @ 2800. No one is buying any for that cost.
It'll drop back to down sell orders of 2k.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.19 05:40:00 -
[218]
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor I guarantee it won't maintain @ 2800. No one is buying any for that cost.
Oh, really?
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.19 05:49:00 -
[219]
Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.
I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish
Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.19 12:44:00 -
[220]
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.
I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish
Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)
Apparently someone disagrees with you. Plat just got bought up to past 3K yet again, the second time in a week. Just under 200K of mine sold at 2650.
I don't know what kind of stable price level it could reach right now and I think worrying about it is pretty pointless because there's going to be a lot of manipulations happening in Chrom/Plat/Tech/Neo, and also in the minor moon mins like what happened to Caesium and Scandium over the last two weeks.
I think over 3k per unit right now is a little ambitious, and will likely entice people with stock bought low to cash out like what happened to Technetium last weekend when it shot past 10K for a day. We could see a similar crash and slow recovery just like that if Plat price is brought up too high.
Disclosure: I still have 1m units of plat, bought at 1100/unit, it's definitely in my interests for it to keep going up
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.19 14:20:00 -
[221]
as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:
fermionic condensates are by akita's analysis about to tank. lets assume this is correct for the sake of simplicity
so what my analysis is showing: Assumptions: 1 POS fuel p/m is 300m 2 POS setup cost is 500m (for tower and stuff) 3 You buy intermediate materials directly from Jita sellorders 4 You sell your advanced materials instantly at sellorder price (yes, i know this is wrong, but i simplifies the math) 5 hauling is done instantly and at no cost (as above, wrong, but for the sake of simplicity) 6 At day one, you purchase the POS, half a month worth of fuel and half a month worth of input materials 7 At day 15, you sell half a month worth of advanced materials, buy another half month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials 8 At day 30, you sell another half month worth of advanced materials, buy half a month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials 9 and so on
The result: - you did earn just about 2.2b ISK - your ROI was 55.96%
if you modify #6 to buyorder price - you earn about 590m ISK - your ROI was about 15%
lets assume (again ) that the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two results, the fermionic condensates reaction is atm the most profitable advanced reaction, both in terms of relative ROI and absolute profit.
I am honestly not sure what to read out of this analysis. On one side we expect the material to tank, on the other side it is highly profitable to produce it. Are intermediate materials undervalued? Are FCs about to tank even more? Is the whole speculation on raw materials influencing this?
My head hurts
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.19 15:02:00 -
[222]
Originally by: Julian Koll as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:
fermionic condensates are by akita's analysis about to tank. lets assume this is correct for the sake of simplicity
so what my analysis is showing: Assumptions: 1 POS fuel p/m is 300m 2 POS setup cost is 500m (for tower and stuff) 3 You buy intermediate materials directly from Jita sellorders 4 You sell your advanced materials instantly at sellorder price (yes, i know this is wrong, but i simplifies the math) 5 hauling is done instantly and at no cost (as above, wrong, but for the sake of simplicity) 6 At day one, you purchase the POS, half a month worth of fuel and half a month worth of input materials 7 At day 15, you sell half a month worth of advanced materials, buy another half month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials 8 At day 30, you sell another half month worth of advanced materials, buy half a month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials 9 and so on
The result: - you did earn just about 2.2b ISK - your ROI was 55.96%
if you modify #6 to buyorder price - you earn about 590m ISK - your ROI was about 15%
lets assume (again ) that the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two results, the fermionic condensates reaction is atm the most profitable advanced reaction, both in terms of relative ROI and absolute profit.
I am honestly not sure what to read out of this analysis. On one side we expect the material to tank, on the other side it is highly profitable to produce it. Are intermediate materials undervalued? Are FCs about to tank even more? Is the whole speculation on raw materials influencing this?
My head hurts
FC price hasn't gone down nearly as much as its main raw materials have. Yes both it and they they are going to go down more, the current resurgence of FC's is somewhat anomalous in this regard.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.19 16:30:00 -
[223]
Edited by: Akita T on 19/11/2009 16:31:43
Originally by: Julian Koll [...]lets assume (again ) that the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two results, the fermionic condensates reaction is atm the most profitable advanced reaction, both in terms of relative ROI and absolute profit. I am honestly not sure what to read out of this analysis. On one side we expect the material to tank, on the other side it is highly profitable to produce it. Are intermediate materials undervalued? Are FCs about to tank even more? Is the whole speculation on raw materials influencing this?
It's actually pretty simple - they're still profitable to make BECAUSE they're about to tank
The demand right now is similar to the demand a month or two ago. Still, most people are trying to get out of it and liquidate stocks, but they want to liquidate stocks at prices as high as possible, drawing it out to the last minute. At the same time, the fact that a lot of people are starting to liquidate means prices for the current "big bill" materials (dyspro/prom) also start tanking, since less of them are being consumed. But since prices for primary materials are falling, reactions become even more profitable, for the time being. All in all, the evolution of FC price is not all that weird once you look at the big picture. As soon as the expansion hits and the REAL demand for them drops, they'll be dropping in price like a rock, very, very fast.
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.19 19:20:00 -
[224]
The carbides are bugging me again. The four armor plates have all jumped up significant amounts with no visible means of support... the base materials like tungsten have risen a bit, but the intermediate materials, the carbides, are all sliding down
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.19 20:08:00 -
[225]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Edited by: Turiel Demon on 19/11/2009 12:57:16
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.
I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish
Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)
Apparently someone disagrees with you. Plat just got bought up to past 3K yet again, the second time in a week. Just under 200K of mine sold at 2650.
I don't know what kind of stable price level it could reach right now and I think worrying about it is pretty pointless because there's going to be a lot of manipulations happening in Chrom/Plat/Tech/Neo, and also in the minor moon mins like what happened to Caesium and Scandium over the last two weeks.
I think over 3k per unit right now is a little ambitious, and will likely entice people with stock bought low to cash out like what happened to Technetium last weekend when it shot past 10K for a day. We could see a similar crash and slow recovery just like that if Plat price is brought up too high.
Disclosure: I still have 1m units of plat, bought at 1100/unit, it's definitely in my interests for it to keep going up
EDIT: I've been thinking about about Neodymium. We haven't talked about it in here for a while but it's growing with impressive stability. Rise and stall, rise and stall, but no fall to speak of, unlike the more wild rides of Technetium, Platinum and Chromium.
I was definitely wrong about the plat! Good job on holding on. But I don't think I was wrong about it coming back down. I still think it will come down to the 1800's before it goes back up again. The price has spiked too high without excess demand. But we will see.
I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.19 20:34:00 -
[226]
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.19 21:10:00 -
[227]
I guess, the question remains, do you sell if it jumps to 20k, or do you hold out for a better price post dominion.
Thoughts on best exit strategy.
I am thinking I may unload half @ 20 and the other half post dom.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.19 21:13:00 -
[228]
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.
I see what you mean, but I think it might overshoot by going to 20k, a safer level would be 14-15k I imagine, 20 will draw out too many people wanting to cash out just like with technetium last weekend.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.19 21:34:00 -
[229]
So has it occured to anyone that CCP might go "man we don't like all this speculation" and **** everyone by changing things at the last minute without putting it on Sisi?
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Ariel Demon
Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.19 21:48:00 -
[230]
Originally by: corestwo So has it occured to anyone that CCP might go "man we don't like all this speculation" and **** everyone by changing things at the last minute without putting it on Sisi?
Of course.
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.19 22:08:00 -
[231]
That's the most realistic fix, in my opinion, and the only thing that will keep prices down post patch(after people find out).(If not, tech/neo will go very very high).
But even if they ninja change it, the prices will go up so with a solid exit strategy you will still make boat loads of iskies.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.19 22:46:00 -
[232]
Interestingly Neodymium is actually a fairly safe bet even IF things are changed, it being an R64, if there's any change to the current plans on sisi (which I by the way judge as less then 30% chance to name an arbitrary number) it will most likely be to put more focus on it and Thulium which has been so cruelly ignored.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.20 01:36:00 -
[233]
Originally by: Julian Koll as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:
Generally, when T2 material market becomes stable, there is very little to no profit to make from adv reaction if you purchase every raw materials from Jita.
If you are sitting on some blue goos and buy yellow ones, reaction biz might be actually profitable for a while after dominion patch b/c additional demand on adv material will be ever greater than b4. Does that necessarily mean you should go in <=0.3 space to actually lay your hands on 'em? It's up to you but mindlessly griding lvl 4 mission will lends you more iskies in safety.
(FYI, all the moons in <= 0.3 system right next highsec around 15 jumps from jita are all regardlessly taken. Murethand and Ostingele might be exceptions but locals there aren't that friendly to new comers . Logistic, my friend, is BIG issue in T2 reaction biz.)
So, when you see some considerable amount of profit from reactioning, that means something nasty is going on, or simply it wouldn't turn out to be as good-looking as it might on your sheet.
From my point of view, f.c. and ferrogel will more or less likely become c3ftm, and c86 in terms of market characteristics. It's indeed very interesting how CCP applies their lesson from T3 to T2.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.20 03:29:00 -
[234]
Originally by: xylopia Edited by: xylopia on 20/11/2009 02:18:12
Originally by: Julian Koll as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:
Generally, when T2 material market becomes stable, there is very little to no profit to make from adv reaction if you purchase every raw materials from Jita.
If you are sitting on some blue goos and buy yellow ones, reaction biz might be actually profitable for a while after dominion patch b/c additional demand on adv material will be ever greater than b4. Does that necessarily mean you should go in <=0.3 space to actually lay your hands on 'em? It's up to you, but mindlessly grinding lvl 4 missions will land you more iskies in safety.
(FYI, all the moons in <= 0.3 system right next highsec around 15 jumps from jita are all regardlessly taken. Murethand and Ostingele might be exceptions but locals there aren't that friendly to new comers . Logistic, my friend, is BIG issue in T2 reaction biz.)
So, when you see some considerable amount of profit from reactioning, that means something nasty is going on, or simply it wouldn't turn out to be as good-looking as it might be on your sheet.
From my point of view, f.c. and ferrogel will more or less likely become c3ftm, and c86 in terms of market characteristics. It's indeed very interesting how CCP applies their lesson from T3 to T2. ( or coincidence, maybe )
Profits will depend on ice to a large degree if I am reading this situation right. Was reading in the info thread and Devs commented that there will be a 25% fuel bonus for Sov. Will see how that plays out.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.20 18:49:00 -
[235]
This may be slightly off topic, but does anyone know what the hell is up with pyerite?
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.11.20 19:43:00 -
[236]
Originally by: EvilCheez Edited by: EvilCheez on 20/11/2009 19:07:14 This may be slightly off topic, but does anyone know what the hell is up with pyerite ?
EDIT: listened to Eve Morning Report which attributes the rise to cosmoray's exploding ship business....nevermind
Seeing this coming a little ways back, I invested in minerals for an even spread for 50 rokhs (if prices didnt go up could always build and self destruct); EXCEPT pyrite.
I have a good deal of extra pyrite
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.20 20:24:00 -
[237]
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor
Originally by: Turiel Demon Edited by: Turiel Demon on 19/11/2009 12:57:16
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.
I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish
Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)
Apparently someone disagrees with you. Plat just got bought up to past 3K yet again, the second time in a week. [...]
I think over 3k per unit right now is a little ambitious, and will likely entice people with stock bought low to cash out like what happened to Technetium last weekend when it shot past 10K for a day. We could see a similar crash and slow recovery just like that if Plat price is brought up too high. [...]
EDIT: I've been thinking about about Neodymium. We haven't talked about it in here for a while but it's growing with impressive stability. Rise and stall, rise and stall, but no fall to speak of, unlike the more wild rides of Technetium, Platinum and Chromium.
I was definitely wrong about the plat! Good job on holding on. But I don't think I was wrong about it coming back down. I still think it will come down to the 1800's before it goes back up again. The price has spiked too high without excess demand. But we will see.
I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Well, plat is dropping like a stone now, as expected heh; luckily I was able to offload most between 2300 and 2900, I look forward to buying lower again.
The big Neodymium order is being chipped away piece by piece, so though it may take longer than the 3 days predicted earlier there's a good chance it's going to shoot up towards the 20k level quite soon.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.21 07:53:00 -
[238]
Originally by: Turiel Demon EDIT: whoops there goes Neo
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
Ariel Demon
Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.21 11:50:00 -
[239]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.
I see what you mean, but I think it might overshoot by going to 20k, a safer level would be 14-15k I imagine, 20 will draw out too many people wanting to cash out just like with technetium last weekend.
[highfive]
15k looks to be a good level, it should hold out for at least a day or so even with relatively low volumes on sale, and will let buy orders creep up a bit without the immediate jolt of 20k causing a ricochet. Even a stabilization at 15 seems possible, though I suspect it will still head to 20k by the end of the week even if this weekend doesn't see it happen.
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Dahkare Raynor
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Posted - 2009.11.22 03:49:00 -
[240]
Originally by: Ariel Demon
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.
I see what you mean, but I think it might overshoot by going to 20k, a safer level would be 14-15k I imagine, 20 will draw out too many people wanting to cash out just like with technetium last weekend.
This, not anything else to say, but agree! :)
[highfive]
15k looks to be a good level, it should hold out for at least a day or so even with relatively low volumes on sale, and will let buy orders creep up a bit without the immediate jolt of 20k causing a ricochet. Even a stabilization at 15 seems possible, though I suspect it will still head to 20k by the end of the week even if this weekend doesn't see it happen.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.22 06:50:00 -
[241]
Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.22 19:19:00 -
[242]
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
What exactly?
Anyways, it's been a while since we were talking up Technetium... let's talk technetium to a higher level guys!
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.22 20:15:00 -
[243]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Anyways, it's been a while since we were talking up Technetium... let's talk technetium to a higher level guys!
Technetium is strapped by its wrists and ankles and won't move anywhere the next 4-5 days.
----------------------------------------
Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.22 20:36:00 -
[244]
Edited by: Akita T on 22/11/2009 20:37:59 Just wait until the patch actually hits... THEN we'll see some nifty chaos.
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Triladir
Gallente SPORADIC MOVEMENT Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.11.23 00:16:00 -
[245]
Bring it on....
There was a few Chromium moons changing hands in low-sec at the moment... So hold onto that chromium tight folks
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.23 03:06:00 -
[246]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
What exactly?
Anyways, it's been a while since we were talking up Technetium... let's talk technetium to a higher level guys!
There is zero content to these posts, no technical data, just "this is up" or "buy this". This is not conducive to people buying into value, its conducive to ripping people off.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Lieutenant Obvious
Thundercats RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.23 03:07:00 -
[247]
Edited by: Lieutenant Obvious on 23/11/2009 03:07:26
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
What exactly?
If Tesal was refering to Crystal Carb Armor Plates, I thought it was genius (being that I had plenty [relative] on HIGH sell orders as it occurred).
From 14k to 89k and all the way back down again.
Edit: OK, maybe not.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.23 04:18:00 -
[248]
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
What exactly? Anyways, it's been a while since we were talking up Technetium... let's talk technetium to a higher level guys!
There is zero content to these posts, no technical data, just "this is up" or "buy this". This is not conducive to people buying into value, its conducive to ripping people off.
Well, the only new information right now is that there's no new information... SiSi stats haven't changed, tech moon count is still very much up for debate. Notice how I haven't said anything about technetium for a few pages
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.23 04:22:00 -
[249]
Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 04:23:27
Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious Edited by: Lieutenant Obvious on 23/11/2009 03:07:26
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
What exactly?
If Tesal was refering to Crystal Carb Armor Plates, I thought it was genius (being that I had plenty [relative] on HIGH sell orders as it occurred).
From 14k to 89k and all the way back down again.
Edit: OK, maybe not.
I am speaking generally. People are creating conditions that are not conducive to making investments. This will delay the effects of the patch and reduces volume *consumed*.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.11.23 06:54:00 -
[250]
Originally by: Tesal Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 04:23:27
Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious Edited by: Lieutenant Obvious on 23/11/2009 03:07:26
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
What exactly?
If Tesal was refering to Crystal Carb Armor Plates, I thought it was genius (being that I had plenty [relative] on HIGH sell orders as it occurred).
From 14k to 89k and all the way back down again.
Edit: OK, maybe not.
I am speaking generally. People are creating conditions that are not conducive to making investments. This will delay the effects of the patch and reduces volume *consumed*.
Translated: I have a good idea for a long-term bet, but, don't have the balls to make it because of the risk of price collapse if CCP nerfs specific things since prices are already inflated in expectation of dominion.
Guess what? Prices are getting inflated because the old dypsprosium and prom values have to go SOMEWHERE, and theres too much demand for all of it to go to lower prices. If you want to make a bet put your chips down for as much as your willing to lose.
If you're not willing to do that then don't complain about those of us who are. I could cash out right now at about 40-50% profit for a weeks investment total, but, **** that, not worth doing yet for what I'm in atm, risk or not. If CCP doesn't lower build costs further, prices on some of the raws still have a good amount of upward movement left in them.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.23 07:10:00 -
[251]
Originally by: Tesal People are creating conditions that are not conducive to making investments. This will delay the effects of the patch and reduces volume *consumed*.
Eve is an MMO, the conditions you face are not set alone by the game rules, but the interactions of players. If prices on the market were simply dictated by ingame technical parameters, it wouldn't be much fun speculating. This is the Market Forum, and we can discuss the "human emotion" aspects of the market as much as the theoretical base consumption of a mineral.
When I say that Technetium won't move anywhere for 4-5 days it is because of the current structure of buy and sell orders surrounding the current prices. These are important variables for the development of the price in this time frame, on top of the longterm expectations stemming from Akita's and others work. You can take my opinion as legit info, or come up with a better estimate yourself before you invest.
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.23 12:48:00 -
[252]
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
What exactly?
Anyways, it's been a while since we were talking up Technetium... let's talk technetium to a higher level guys!
There is zero content to these posts, no technical data, just "this is up" or "buy this". This is not conducive to people buying into value, its conducive to ripping people off.
I disagree. This thread is a bit of a combination of market analysis, speculation-watch and speculation/future-prices prediction; as such, a lot of post may just be 'hey look what happened to Titanium Carbide' or 'Neodymium went up a few thousand' - information that anyone interested can see from the market histories tab - but the context of this thread invites discussion on possible reasons that this or that material is performing in this or that way.
I enjoy seeing predictions come true, but it's also very interesting to see when they do not, and to analyze what factor caused me or any of us to be wrong in our line of reasoning. Platinum is a decent example of this; you responded eventually to Dahkare saying 'I agree with you about Platinum' I think, which may not contribute overmuch but it's valid feed-back on our discussion about the material - in effect it's saying 'I have looked at the situation and my conclusion is the same as yours' which I much preffer to oone saying anything at all, irrespective of the prediction being right or wrong, it's a confirmation that someone isn't just making stuff up and gives the thread some activity
I'll agree with you that there could be more reasoning explained, like when Cista2 said Neodymium would go to 20k. I looked at it and saw why she thought that, agreeing with the reasoning, and then consciously decided not to explain why I agreed for the simple reason that I didn't want to give away that speculative insight just yet, as I didn't want to trigger a price spike before I'd bought stock.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.23 16:13:00 -
[253]
Minor corrections and adjustments made, most important one was a "slight" mistake in the total "manufacture slot month" calculations on both before/after Dominion sheets, and a minor (compared to total volume) reaction misshap on a lesser mineral.
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/AkitaT_Dominion_v3d_Office2007.zip (Linkage)
The manufacture "slot months" calculation was missing a "24" (was just 3600*30 instead of 3600*24*30... well, ratios do remain the same, but the amount of manufacturers supported by the economy did seem extremely high, hehe, now I know why). Added the refreshed comparison sheet. Also added a brand new "Reactions in EVE overview" sheet (what moon minerals go where and all intermediate reaction names - that's how I noticed the discrepancy in v3c).
All in all, if you were using v3c before, it would be a good idea to get v3d ASAP.
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.23 16:44:00 -
[254]
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 16:49:37 Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 16:44:41
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.
ok cramer
any other hot stock tips
for the record: neo, three days after this post: 11k
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.23 17:20:00 -
[255]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 16:49:37 Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 16:44:41
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.
ok cramer
any other hot stock tips
for the record: neo, three days after this post: 11k
Ohai. Bolded the important part.
A few hours after Cista's post that day someone dumped a huge sell order on the market which was about 2x the volume of what had been between 10K and 20K at the time of posting.
Neo did in fact somewhat unexpectedly (given the big stock dumped on the market) go to 15k for a short time in the last few days, and it will probably work its way to 20K by the end of the week.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.23 18:24:00 -
[256]
Death to Cobalt.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.11.23 19:47:00 -
[257]
Originally by: Tesal Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 19:03:34 Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 18:38:19 Death to Cobalt.
*edit Look at Silicates there, desperately scratching for the price to go up.
Sorry...NO!
*edit You do realize for Neo that the top sell order is enough to break the price level for sell orders and if you include the next 2 orders that alone is enough to drop prices by 10%. The top buy order can get yanked at any time causing a cascade all the way to 7900. It is in a very fragile state. If people make the judgment right now that it should go down and they have some stocks to bet with, it will go down.
The reasoning for betting on neo has nothing to do with short-term pricing and everything to do with the fact that if CCP narrowly nerfs technetium (say by reducing fulleride need), then neo will become the next bottleneck, but, it won't be massively above others like tech will if nothing happens, thus not being nearly as likely to merit or draw a nerfbat.
Hence a combination of neo and tech is an excellent long-term play: if no change, your tech skyrockets, if tech narrowly changed (which is ideally what needs to happen), neo will go up (although not nearly as much as tech will in the no-change scenario). You still could be whiped out of course, but, thats why you don't speculate what you can't afford to lose in the first place. Even considering that, the fact that you can partially "insure" a tech bet by buying neo and a neo bet by buying tech is kind of a big deal, and drastically improves the goodness of both.
The time for making tons of isk at relatively low risk on short term speculation is IMO already over. Now is the time for rolling the dice on what will actually hit the servers, and thats always risky.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.23 19:59:00 -
[258]
Originally by: Mahke
Originally by: Tesal Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 19:03:34 Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 18:38:19 Death to Cobalt.
*edit Look at Silicates there, desperately scratching for the price to go up.
Sorry...NO!
*edit You do realize for Neo that the top sell order is enough to break the price level for sell orders and if you include the next 2 orders that alone is enough to drop prices by 10%. The top buy order can get yanked at any time causing a cascade all the way to 7900. It is in a very fragile state. If people make the judgment right now that it should go down and they have some stocks to bet with, it will go down.
The reasoning for betting on neo has nothing to do with short-term pricing and everything to do with the fact that if CCP narrowly nerfs technetium (say by reducing fulleride need), then neo will become the next bottleneck, but, it won't be massively above others like tech will if nothing happens, thus not being nearly as likely to merit or draw a nerfbat.
Hence a combination of neo and tech is an excellent long-term play: if no change, your tech skyrockets, if tech narrowly changed (which is ideally what needs to happen), neo will go up (although not nearly as much as tech will in the no-change scenario). You still could be whiped out of course, but, thats why you don't speculate what you can't afford to lose in the first place. Even considering that, the fact that you can partially "insure" a tech bet by buying neo and a neo bet by buying tech is kind of a big deal, and drastically improves the goodness of both.
The time for making tons of isk at relatively low risk on short term speculation is IMO already over. Now is the time for rolling the dice on what will actually hit the servers, and thats always risky.
Conversely, if you make a bet for after the patch, and go for the long term, the best bet is to crash the price, buy it up and then wait on the patch effect. There is a strong incentive to gut the market. Just sayin.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.23 20:16:00 -
[259]
Edited by: Cista2 on 23/11/2009 20:23:00
Originally by: EvilweaselSA ok cramer any other hot stock tips for the record: neo, three days after this post: 11k
Lol, did you go skiing in the weekend? Neo did exactly as I predicted - in spite of one mother sell order it had a good spike at 15k. I made isk - sorry you missed it.
Originally by: Mahke The reasoning for betting on neo has nothing to do with short-term pricing and everything to do with the fact that if CCP narrowly nerfs technetium...
True, and not true... There are still some day-to-day movements, as witnessed by Neodymium again - also Platinum is now surprisingly low, might produce another hiccup next week (edit: that would be this week ofc) And what happens around the launch days ? Isk can be made in the short term as well as long term, both are interesting battlefields IMO.
----------------------------------------
Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.23 21:01:00 -
[260]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: EvilweaselSA Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 16:49:37 Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 16:44:41
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Dahkare Raynor I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.
Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.
ok cramer
any other hot stock tips
for the record: neo, three days after this post: 11k
Ohai. Bolded the important part.
A few hours after Cista's post that day someone dumped a huge sell order on the market which was about 2x the volume of what had been between 10K and 20K at the time of posting.
Neo did in fact somewhat unexpectedly (given the big stock dumped on the market) go to 15k for a short time in the last few days, and it will probably work its way to 20K by the end of the week.
of course large loads were going to be dumped on the market, that was obvious, it's also obvious it would cause the price to go down
"unless the usual thing happens to restrain the price, the price will go up" i'm a stock analyst give me all your money
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.23 21:12:00 -
[261]
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 21:14:02 also I MADE MONEY DON'T YOU DARE QUESTION MY METHODS lol
i've got a stockbroker who used to play for the mets who made some consistent money (in a booming market) want his number? just don't ask about when things went bad
I mean man "hey I made money buy buying neodymium and using my MAGIC METHODS to figure out the price would go up" is pretty lame, the price is steadily inching upwards because every day without ccp figuring our how badly they've bungled these moon mining changes (not that I'm upset, since they offer private profit in the interim while my directors nationalize different moons for their moon goo habit) makes it more likely they go live, meaning the price edges closer to the post-dominion price with these changes, and so basically every method that predicts "buy neo now, sell later" will make money (and of course if it's changed well that's just not your fault, all gains are because you're great, all losses are because of things out of your control)
everything in the interim is noise caused by fluctuations in when people ship to and from jita
hope that little knowledge bomb was edifying
edit: I remembered some of you might be euros or the like so you might not get these references, if you don't terribly sorry
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.23 21:43:00 -
[262]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA the price is steadily inching upwards
Impressive. Are you some sort of Goonswarm secret weapon for the finance market?
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.23 21:45:00 -
[263]
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 21:45:03
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: EvilweaselSA the price is steadily inching upwards
Impressive. Are you some sort of Goonswarm secret weapon for the finance market?
yeah
first lesson: difference between 15,000 and 20,000
i can't tell you the answer though, for that you have to join goonswarm
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.23 21:54:00 -
[264]
its also kind of hilarious you think that's an effective refutation but then again someone who considers eve speculation on patch changes "finance" probably isn't big on grasping how things appear to normal people
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Meths
The Big Gay Animal Zoo
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Posted - 2009.11.23 22:56:00 -
[265]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA its also kind of hilarious you think that's an effective refutation but then again someone who considers eve speculation on patch changes "finance" probably isn't big on grasping how things appear to normal people
you're a bit of a knob aren't you
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.23 23:03:00 -
[266]
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 23:05:46
Originally by: Meths
Originally by: EvilweaselSA its also kind of hilarious you think that's an effective refutation but then again someone who considers eve speculation on patch changes "finance" probably isn't big on grasping how things appear to normal people
you're a bit of a knob aren't you
i'm from goonswarm and I'm here to help
but seriously its kind of hilarious to watch people pat themselves on the back as ~~master financiers~~ when they're so bad at it, my posts are actually full of extremely helpful information, though the difference between 15k and 20k will remain a goonswarm secret
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.23 23:20:00 -
[267]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 21:06:15
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Ohai. Bolded the important part.
A few hours after Cista's post that day someone dumped a huge sell order on the market which was about 2x the volume of what had been between 10K and 20K at the time of posting.
Neo did in fact somewhat unexpectedly (given the big stock dumped on the market) go to 15k for a short time in the last few days, and it will probably work its way to 20K by the end of the week.
of course large loads were going to be dumped on the market, that was obvious, it's also obvious it would cause the price to go down
"unless the usual thing happens to restrain the price, the price will go up" i'm a stock analyst give me all your money
here is a hot tip for you: the price will go down, unless people are buying more than people are putting on the market
[...]
A large stock of Neo landing on the market at 10K was not expected, it was in fact an incredibly dumb move on the part of the seller. Had he waited a couple of days he could have sold it for considerably more - if more slowly - but instead he chose to kill the chances of turning 5b worth of Neo into 7.5b or 10b... I have no idea why. Anyone with a rudimentary grasp of the eve markets could see what was about to happen.
If we look at the market now, and see where it would be had 500K units not unnecessarily been moved at 10k, sell price would (at a rough estimate) be at 17K right now. What's that I hear you say? That's not 20k? No, and I don't recall anyone saying 'it's going to be 20k forever and ever starting 3 days from now'. Moving the goalposts? maybe your imaginary goalposts.
It'll go up more slowly than we might have expected it to because it's not got a weekend to do it in, and the market simply moves more slowly on the weekdays.
For all the words I'm wasting on you I don't really know what your complaint is; like Cista I sold a decent amount of stock at ~13-15k knowing I would be able to re-buy lower, I'm sure others did too, but those not watching the Neo market might not have been able to if not for the warning. You seem to be bawling that there was only a 50% immediate profit to be made rather than a 100% one... QQ more tbh.
[/eveconomics lesson for the terminally trollish]
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.23 23:28:00 -
[268]
Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 23:30:35 Hey, I was trolling this thread! Go back to CAOD Goon.
On paper I made 100b isk after the patch.
*edit
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: EvilweaselSA Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 21:06:15
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Ohai. Bolded the important part.
A few hours after Cista's post that day someone dumped a huge sell order on the market which was about 2x the volume of what had been between 10K and 20K at the time of posting.
Neo did in fact somewhat unexpectedly (given the big stock dumped on the market) go to 15k for a short time in the last few days, and it will probably work its way to 20K by the end of the week.
of course large loads were going to be dumped on the market, that was obvious, it's also obvious it would cause the price to go down
"unless the usual thing happens to restrain the price, the price will go up" i'm a stock analyst give me all your money
here is a hot tip for you: the price will go down, unless people are buying more than people are putting on the market
[...]
A large stock of Neo landing on the market at 10K was not expected, it was in fact an incredibly dumb move on the part of the seller. Had he waited a couple of days he could have sold it for considerably more - if more slowly - but instead he chose to kill the chances of turning 5b worth of Neo into 7.5b or 10b... I have no idea why. Anyone with a rudimentary grasp of the eve markets could see what was about to happen.
If we look at the market now, and see where it would be had 500K units not unnecessarily been moved at 10k, sell price would (at a rough estimate) be at 17K right now. What's that I hear you say? That's not 20k? No, and I don't recall anyone saying 'it's going to be 20k forever and ever starting 3 days from now'. Moving the goalposts? maybe your imaginary goalposts.
It'll go up more slowly than we might have expected it to because it's not got a weekend to do it in, and the market simply moves more slowly on the weekdays.
For all the words I'm wasting on you I don't really know what your complaint is; like Cista I sold a decent amount of stock at ~13-15k knowing I would be able to re-buy lower, I'm sure others did too, but those not watching the Neo market might not have been able to if not for the warning. You seem to be bawling that there was only a 50% immediate profit to be made rather than a 100% one... QQ more tbh.
[/eveconomics lesson for the terminally trollish]
Meh...what if you have half a million units? And what if 60 other people have half a million units? Where does that put that decision?
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.23 23:53:00 -
[269]
Originally by: Tesal Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 23:30:35 Hey, I was trolling this thread! Go back to CAOD Goon.
On paper I made 100b isk after the patch.
*edit
Originally by: Turiel Demon [stuff]
Meh...what if you have half a million units? And what if 60 other people have half a million units? Where does that put that decision?
That's a good question, the answer lies partly in the units/day sold that you can see on the market history tab.
If you have half a million units, and there are 100K units on the market with 200K moving per day (not identical, but analogous to the situation we were talking about) then I'd wait and exploit the shortage.
If you have half a million units, and 60 other people have half a million units, it's pretty damn likely that more than 0.66% of the currently available stock waiting to be sold would be on the market - being sold - and so there would be more than 100K on the market. Indeed, if 200k was moving per day and there were 30m units unused out there I'd expect the price would be somewhere closer to 50isk/unit.
The amount of stock that is 'out there' at any given time may not be known, but the general level can be estimated at don't you think?
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.24 00:13:00 -
[270]
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 24/11/2009 00:16:16
Originally by: Turiel Demon
A large stock of Neo landing on the market at 10K was not expected, it was in fact an incredibly dumb move on the part of the seller. Had he waited a couple of days he could have sold it for considerably more - if more slowly - but instead he chose to kill the chances of turning 5b worth of Neo into 7.5b or 10b... I have no idea why. Anyone with a rudimentary grasp of the eve markets could see what was about to happen.
ok turiel demon, I hinted at this before, but why might someone want to dump neo now?
hint: neo speculation isn't risk-free, if there was more time to dominion I'd be selling right now but since there's only a week and ccp is clearly overloaded I'm not, why would that be
Originally by: Turiel Demon
For all the words I'm wasting on you I don't really know what your complaint is; like Cista I sold a decent amount of stock at ~13-15k knowing I would be able to re-buy lower, I'm sure others did too, but those not watching the Neo market might not have been able to if not for the warning. You seem to be bawling that there was only a 50% immediate profit to be made rather than a 100% one... QQ more tbh.
[/eveconomics lesson for the terminally trollish]
i have no complaints there's much better people to bounce ideas off in goonswarm but man are you guys touchy at being called out when your predictions fall flat on their face
and again managing to sell neo at a profit right now isn't exactly proof you're a brilliant trader: this is a hard lesson many people learned about their stockbroker who was so great right until the market crashed
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.24 00:22:00 -
[271]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
The amount of stock that is 'out there' at any given time may not be known, but the general level can be estimated at don't you think?
either your estimates are horribly low or you don't quite understand what it means that there's that much out there
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.24 01:13:00 -
[272]
Edited by: Turiel Demon on 24/11/2009 01:15:41
Originally by: EvilweaselSA
Originally by: Turiel Demon
The amount of stock that is 'out there' at any given time may not be known, but the general level can be estimated at don't you think?
either your estimates are horribly low or you don't quite understand what it means that there's that much out there
Quite possibly, but just to clarify I was talking about 'stock that can/will appear on the market in a timeframe that would influence the sales in this weekend'. I don't doubt there are massive stockpiles out around the eve universe, but they're not all relevant right now.
Originally by: EvilweaselSA
ok turiel demon, I hinted at this before, but why might someone want to dump neo now?
hint: neo speculation isn't risk-free, if there was more time to dominion I'd be selling right now but since there's only a week and ccp is clearly overloaded I'm not, why would that be
So, we disagree on where Neo is/would be going under certain circumstances, we both have our own lines of reasoning leading to our separate conclusions. Discussion over tbh.
Originally by: EvilweaselSA i have no complaints there's much better people to bounce ideas off in goonswarm
Just made me lol, sorry
Originally by: EvilweaselSA but man are you guys touchy at being called out when your predictions fall flat on their face
I don't see the failed prediction. Really, I don't.
As I read it the prediction goes 'event y will happen in time-frame x unless unlikely condition z is met' followed by condition z being met.
I can see where you're coming from because you have a different view on the likelihood of that condition, namely the big stock being dumped on the market, but I don't see any faulty prediction here.
This is bothering me because there's plenty of faulty prediction out there, I've made plenty, hell even concerning this I'd expected Neo to stabilize at 15 and I thought Technetium would stay at 8-10k throughout this week, those are wrong. I still think Tech will move up to 20K by the end of the week and that may well be wrong. But you're going after an 'oh hai guys market looks like this now!' post as if it were some kind of huge deal, while it was pretty much banter. Don't mess with our banter yo!
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.24 03:37:00 -
[273]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 23:30:35 Hey, I was trolling this thread! Go back to CAOD Goon.
On paper I made 100b isk after the patch.
*edit
Originally by: Turiel Demon [stuff]
Meh...what if you have half a million units? And what if 60 other people have half a million units? Where does that put that decision?
That's a good question, the answer lies partly in the units/day sold that you can see on the market history tab.
If you have half a million units, and there are 100K units on the market with 200K moving per day (not identical, but analogous to the situation we were talking about) then I'd wait and exploit the shortage.
If you have half a million units, and 60 other people have half a million units, it's pretty damn likely that more than 0.66% of the currently available stock waiting to be sold would be on the market - being sold - and so there would be more than 100K on the market. Indeed, if 200k was moving per day and there were 30m units unused out there I'd expect the price would be somewhere closer to 50isk/unit.
The amount of stock that is 'out there' at any given time may not be known, but the general level can be estimated at don't you think?
Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.24 17:24:00 -
[274]
Originally by: Tesal
Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.
You and the weasel both, apparently. It strikes me that were there gargantuan unused stockpiles lying around the common cupidity of the typical eve player would have caused more than just the occasional person to drop their few million units, considering the 400% rise in value over the last two months.
I can imagine if some alliances with sufficient hold over their member's previously minor moon mining ops have put an embargo on Neo and the similar rising moonmins for the time being, that could cause such stockpiles to build up; I don't know enough about alliance moon control to comment much on that, but I would certainly be interested to know if this has happened.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.24 19:27:00 -
[275]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal
Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.
You and the weasel both, apparently. It strikes me that were there gargantuan unused stockpiles lying around the common cupidity of the typical eve player would have caused more than just the occasional person to drop their few million units, considering the 400% rise in value over the last two months.
I can imagine if some alliances with sufficient hold over their member's previously minor moon mining ops have put an embargo on Neo and the similar rising moonmins for the time being, that could cause such stockpiles to build up; I don't know enough about alliance moon control to comment much on that, but I would certainly be interested to know if this has happened.
Maybe I am just talking trash to lower the price so I can buy in. You will have to decide what the truth is for yourself.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.24 22:58:00 -
[276]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal
Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.
You and the weasel both, apparently. It strikes me that were there gargantuan unused stockpiles lying around the common cupidity of the typical eve player would have caused more than just the occasional person to drop their few million units, considering the 400% rise in value over the last two months.
I can imagine if some alliances with sufficient hold over their member's previously minor moon mining ops have put an embargo on Neo and the similar rising moonmins for the time being, that could cause such stockpiles to build up; I don't know enough about alliance moon control to comment much on that, but I would certainly be interested to know if this has happened.
people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.24 23:31:00 -
[277]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it
On the other hand, technetium has been in the public eye only since 3 weeks ago...
_
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.25 02:07:00 -
[278]
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 25/11/2009 02:08:00
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: EvilweaselSA people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it
On the other hand, technetium has been in the public eye only since 3 weeks ago...
Right, though given how the CSM thing went down I'd imagine technetium was an unintended effect while balancing neo was intended. However you're correct people definitely haven't been stockpiling that for nearly as long so the amount of speculative stockpiles is probably a fraction of neo (plus, many people have suspected for a while neo and thulium would get buffed and have been mining and stockpiling it)
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.25 13:28:00 -
[279]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 25/11/2009 02:08:00
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: EvilweaselSA people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it
On the other hand, technetium has been in the public eye only since 3 weeks ago...
Right, though given how the CSM thing went down I'd imagine technetium was an unintended effect while balancing neo was intended. However you're correct people definitely haven't been stockpiling that for nearly as long so the amount of speculative stockpiles is probably a fraction of neo (plus, many people have suspected for a while neo and thulium would get buffed and have been mining and stockpiling it)
I feel really bad for poor little Thulium
Thanks for clearing up the reasoning btw, I don't have much of an idea on how moon-mining operations are centralised, I took it that minor mins like Neo would just be individually mined.
A while back we'd talked about the under-reporting of certain moon-minerals in Akita's first few models, and how that had then been taken that into account for the later models.
I actually adjusted the figures myself taking the under-reporting figures for those regions and applying them to the eve-wide moon list instead of just adding the unreported moons like Akita had which produced this:
Basically the same as Akita's with Tech way in the lead.
But while doing so realised that tech was not present in these regions, so the under-reporting value couldn't be calculated. I choose to take the average of the under-reporting factors of platinum and chromium as a rough estimate, which produced this:
A rather more balanced situation, with Neo being in the lead but by a far narrower relative margin
Even then, as we saw in the price difference between prom and dyspro, just a couple of % can already make a huge difference.
Hence, I have about equal stocks of Tech and Neo, and that seems a fairly safe bet to me
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.25 13:46:00 -
[280]
You posted the same image link twice...
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We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.25 16:51:00 -
[281]
Originally by: Akita T You posted the same image link twice...
So i did, serves me right for not checking
Correction edited in.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.25 22:06:00 -
[282]
Edited by: Akita T on 25/11/2009 22:13:04
Originally by: Turiel Demon I don't know if you'd explained it before, but could you tell me how the 'values adjusted for rarity' and the derived percentages etc. in your spreadsheets work?
Well, on one hand you have the total amounts used for each moon mineral (derived from number of items, then components, then reactions) ; on the other hand, you have the total (maximum potential) production capability of moons in EVE, based on estimated number of moons. Dividing the total used by the total exploitable results in a percentage of usage for that particular material in that particular market. We further extrapolate that usage ratios in other markets are similar (well, not quite, since in Amarr space you'll get slightly more Amarr ships and laser weapons used, but that only really influences carbide usage, so in other words only slight adjustments to chromium/cadmium/platinum/vanadium usage, and the inaccuracies in moon counts are much more likely higher than this particular approximation) - so we pick the HIGHEST usage rate out of all moon minerals so far to determine the major bottleneck (since production can't continue when all of that material is used up and all other moon minerals just "have to wait" unused partially), and then all others get adjusted accordingly. Simple, really
P.S. The "rarity autocalc" section is mostly "legacy data" from the earlier models (similar functionality but different approach), and only used for the alchemy calculations section right now (how much gets reacted into alchemy on average most likely, if at all - the closer the relative scarcity adjusted for individual rarity on material usage post-alchemy of the replacement mineral gets to that of the replaced material, the less gets reacted in alchemy - it's a guesstimation mostly, anyway).
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.26 02:11:00 -
[283]
Someone went on a spree
Technetium - 27k neodymium - 20k
High volume on carbides |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.26 02:17:00 -
[284]
Originally by: EvilCheez Someone went on a spree
Technetium - 27k neodymium - 20k
High volume on carbides
Indeed, wouldn't surprise me if exactly the same thing happened as did last time Tech spiked though - people falling over themselves to cash-out starting a stampede downwards from the new level, only to end up lower than it was before. We are a good bit closer to Dominion than last time though (I think it was the 13th?) so it'll be interesting to see what happens. |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.26 02:21:00 -
[285]
i bet my 2 waffles that tech will be in the 10 to 12k range by tomorrow morning. |
Juliette Leblanc
Gallente Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2009.11.26 06:19:00 -
[286]
Not sure if this is why, but yesterday this thread was "mentioned" on Kugu_su_en's board (cannot put the full name in because it's still censored, lol) where a huge lot of 0.0 people hang for political updates. Quote: And now for something completely different....
Technetium. I'm glad people approach EVE with the same optimism they might when buying lottery tickets or betting at the track.
Shout out to Akita T and the rest of that merry band of manipulators whom aren't quite so visible.
This may have brought some extra buyers from "the other kind of PvP" camp (the one you play with only 2 to 8 guns at a time, in groups).
Meanwhile both tech and neo are beginning to see small buy orders hanging at 15k, with the real support still in the 10k region and lowest sells still in the 20k+.
Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.26 07:19:00 -
[287]
Originally by: Julian Koll i bet my 2 waffles that tech will be in the 10 to 12k range by tomorrow morning.
Highly unlikely. Buy orders for both Neodymium and Technetium are plodding along merrily above 10k now, so it seems those days are over.
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Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.26 08:07:00 -
[288]
Edited by: xylopia on 26/11/2009 08:08:46 It's only a couple of days away from Dominion, (actually next Tuesday) so here comes what I made. I wrote this sheet based on "Aaron Nielsen" work ( thanks to him for sharing.) about two months ago when ppl were crazy on sylamic fibers. I only collected t2 ship data from TQ and Sisi over a weekend, and transaction # from jita (forge region) from 07/01/09~07/14/09 to have very conservative value ( when ferrogel price was it's highest point). Plus no alchemy was taken into account. So it might prone to error but it turns out to be decent after all.
*All comp ME is perfect, and ship ME is 0 except marauders. (-1)
Anyway, since Akita has throughly gone over all the gists of the patch, there isn't much to find from my sheet, except,
1) adjusted value percentage of advanced material 2) adjusted value percentage of raw material ( actually you want to look at akita's work for this one. although the end result is very close to his, I just simply used CCP's base price and adjusted rarity value to come up w/ the final adj value %. His work actually digs deeper to find out even bottlenecks.) *You can call me slacker 2) Each t2 ship's component, advanced material, processed material, raw material break down, b4/after dominion, so you know what price would be like for your favorite ones after the patch.
here it comes http://dl.eve-files.com/media/corp/xylopia/Dominion_T2_Ship_Build_Material.zip
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.26 08:16:00 -
[289]
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Julian Koll i bet my 2 waffles that tech will be in the 10 to 12k range by tomorrow morning.
Highly unlikely. Buy orders for both Neodymium and Technetium are plodding along merrily above 10k now, so it seems those days are over.
Someone just jumped in and bought stuff up to jack the price, cleared the Tech sell orders to 23.5k with 10.1k buy support, and cleared Neo to 17k and put in a blocking order in the buy side at 15k with 10.1k support below that. Transparent manipulation in my opinion. I don't think this price level is rational myself given the stocks out there, and the probability that Tech moons are under counted.
In my opinion, Tech/Neo, best case scenario acts like Cadmium with the introduction of Alchemy. Its a good 6 month climb to the top, assuming everything people are saying is true, and I am assuming its not true.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.26 08:30:00 -
[290]
http://www.eveonline.com/externalLink.aspx?l=http%3A%2F%2Fdl%2Eeve%2Dfiles%2Ecom%2Fmedia%2Fcorp%2Fxylopia%2FDominion%5FT2%5FShip%5FBuild%5FMaterial%2Ezip
sorry, I'm a little confused. Was I supposed to enter data and where? I'm getting mostly "#NAME?" in almost every field.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.26 09:50:00 -
[291]
Originally by: Tesal Transparent manipulation in my opinion. I don't think this price level is rational myself given the stocks out there, and the probability that Tech moons are under counted.
Somehow you guys seem to believe that if you term something a "manipulation", then it's not really happening, as if the market we see on our screen is not the actual market, but a derivate market in a tangential, manipulated universe.
With this I mean to say that it is supply and demand that decides the prices, and while a) you must realise that orders put up for manipulation purposes are also demand, b) massive amounts that people hold in stock are not supply if those people do not unload them on the market. Many of those with stocks may have a higher bar than 20k for when they wish to sell, and others are oblivious to what is going on.
----------------------------------------
Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.26 11:34:00 -
[292]
Originally by: EvilCheez sorry, I'm a little confused. Was I supposed to enter data and where? I'm getting mostly "#NAME?" in almost every field.
My bad. I've updated to excel 97 format and added Gif image version. You might need to lower down your macro security to medium and enable macro.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.26 13:02:00 -
[293]
I was just taking a look at the dotlan numbers, trying to figure out at what end of the under-reporting spectrum it lies, i.e. are there less than 500 total moons for a bottleneck at Tech, or are there over 600 for the bottleneck to be Neo. So bear with me here:
Geminate is a region that only has 6% of the moons on dotalan, but of those that are known about 1/3 are Tech. Now, with a total of I think about 700 moons as many as 200 could theoretically/statistically be Technetium, and the same goes for Fade.
Pure-blind, Venal, Deklein and Vale of the Silent however all have 75-100% maps and only venal has 74 Tech moons, with the others having between 25-40 each. In fact... there are NO regions with more than 80 of any one kind of R32, which Tech is.
This indicates to me that the four 'low report %' regions with Tech - Fade, Geminate, Great Wildlands, Tenal - can at an absolute maximum have another 320 Tech moons, which is just about enough to equalise it with Neodymium.
Anyone with access to more detailed moon-mapping projects of these regions please help us with this if it's not too super sikrit.
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Verite Rendition
Caldari F.R.E.E. Explorer Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.11.26 14:42:00 -
[294]
Originally by: Turiel Demon I was just taking a look at the dotlan numbers, trying to figure out at what end of the under-reporting spectrum it lies, i.e. are there less than 500 total moons for a bottleneck at Tech, or are there over 600 for the bottleneck to be Neo. So bear with me here:
Geminate is a region that only has 6% of the moons on dotalan, but of those that are known about 1/3 are Tech. Now, with a total of I think about 700 moons as many as 200 could theoretically/statistically be Technetium, and the same goes for Fade.
Pure-blind, Venal, Deklein and Vale of the Silent however all have 75-100% maps and only venal has 74 Tech moons, with the others having between 25-40 each. In fact... there are NO regions with more than 80 of any one kind of R32, which Tech is.
This indicates to me that the four 'low report %' regions with Tech - Fade, Geminate, Great Wildlands, Tenal - can at an absolute maximum have another 320 Tech moons, which is just about enough to equalise it with Neodymium.
Anyone with access to more detailed moon-mapping projects of these regions please help us with this if it's not too super sikrit.
There are 9 Technetium moons in Fade. I'm not going to tell you how many there are in Geminate, but it's not nearly as big as you'd assume. ---- FREE Explorer Lead Megalomanic EVE Null-Sec Player Influence Map http://dl1.eve-files.com/media/corp/Veritefw/FWinf |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.26 15:17:00 -
[295]
Originally by: Akita T Just wait until the patch actually hits... THEN we'll see some nifty chaos.
Absolutely right!
One way or the other
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killa mutha
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Posted - 2009.11.26 18:57:00 -
[296]
Edited by: killa mutha on 26/11/2009 18:59:56 I have no interest in mining these moons but,I do have a interest in pewpewing the guys that do mine then. What do you guys think these moons will average out at after patch hits and the major manipulation is done, and ofcouse the giant stock piles of of the former worthless moon gold
Should i start getting warp ins on cobalt and vanadium moons
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.26 21:31:00 -
[297]
Originally by: Juliette Leblanc Not sure if this is why, but yesterday this thread was "mentioned" on Kugu_su_en's board (cannot put the full name in because it's still censored, lol) where a huge lot of 0.0 people hang for political updates. Quote: Technetium. I'm glad people approach EVE with the same optimism they might when buying lottery tickets or betting at the track. Shout out to Akita T and the rest of that merry band of manipulators whom aren't quite so visible.
I can only LOL at that.
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Tornicks
Caldari Maelstrom Crew
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Posted - 2009.11.27 00:57:00 -
[298]
Is there some kind of analysis over the prediction of the Tritanium price in Dominion in any thread? I searched some threads but haven't found such. Would be grateful for help.
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fmercury
Club Bear HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.11.27 09:16:00 -
[299]
Edited by: fmercury on 27/11/2009 09:16:03 The price of tech/neo has increased 15-30x, but fullerides/fernite carbide haven't gone up by more than 50%, what gives?
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.27 11:18:00 -
[300]
Originally by: fmercury Edited by: fmercury on 27/11/2009 09:16:03 The price of tech/neo has increased 15-30x, but fullerides/fernite carbide haven't gone up by more than 50%, what gives?
answered in-game
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.11.27 21:14:00 -
[301]
Edited by: Mahke on 27/11/2009 21:17:05
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: fmercury Edited by: fmercury on 27/11/2009 09:16:03 The price of tech/neo has increased 15-30x, but fullerides/fernite carbide haven't gone up by more than 50%, what gives?
answered in-game
If you don't mind, forward that to me too .
Your posts are almost always insightful and I'd be interested in what you think about it.
edit: nevermind, found your view on this on another forum.
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.27 22:00:00 -
[302]
because fernite carbide has nothing to do with tech or neo, for starters
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YouGotRipped
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2009.11.27 22:24:00 -
[303]
Originally by: Akita T Everybody else that read it most likely either went speechless and had nothing to add, or they're playing with the spreadsheets right now
Or else!
Black Sun Empire |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.28 00:04:00 -
[304]
I am looking forward to Dominion day, and was wondering what I should be looking for when it hits.
If there are any last minute nerfs/buffs will these definately be listed in the patch notes?
Other than the obvious (Micro-processor bps), what items should I check up on?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.28 10:34:00 -
[305]
Originally by: EvilCheez If there are any last minute nerfs/buffs will these definately be listed in the patch notes?
I somehow doubt the patch notes will mention more than "an alchemy boost to *4 effectiveness" and "several adjustments to T2 component manufacture time and T2 ship manufacture required material amounts".
_
We are recruiting | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.28 16:23:00 -
[306]
Originally by: Mahke nice things
I have a fan
Now then, to business:
I've received information from a few people with access to moon maps of those regions of interest to the Tech debate.
What it comes down to, as you all know, is the fewer Tech moons there are, the more rare it is, and the more likely it is to be the bottleneck.
Now, from the information available it's possible to determine a likely and a maximum number of a given type of moon in the regions where we have no accurate count, and from this we can calculate the minimum, likely and maximum number in the whole galaxy.
The numbers I have now indicate that at bare minimum there are 241 Tech moons. Most likely, there are around 307 tech moons. At an absolute maximum there are 357 tech moons.
This produces the following two possible sets of data:
First the MAX possible Tech, with probable Neo.
And second the probable Tech with MAX Neo
I have not included the MIN Neo and MAX Tech graph, though this is the only combination that puts Neo in the lead it is exceedingly unlikely to be the case. It puts Tech second at 92.8%.
Note that I have extrapolated the numbers of the less important moons to the likely number that are present given the ratio of under-reporting in known regions that have had their accurate numbers revealed. Formula is roughly 'new value = old number + 0.5 x (newly known number - old number)' because we're missing information on roughly half of regions, hence why I've added about half of the under-reporting ratio the numbers suggest to the galaxy-wide mooncount.
Now, see that even with Max tech moons (so least rarity, and exceedingly unlikely) it's still in the lead given the probable number of Neo moons, and the situation will likely be in between those two. That means that Tech is pretty much guaranteed to be the highest value moon bar CCP changes, but it is closer to the R64's than was previously expected.
All in all, this is looking good, and probably a little more balanced between the moon minerals than we'd thought it would be. Given that CCP know exactly how many moons there are it wouldn't surprise me if they have gone for a balance point where they'll accept Tech having a slight lead, with the 3 big R64's following closely behind.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.28 16:59:00 -
[307]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: EvilCheez If there are any last minute nerfs/buffs will these definately be listed in the patch notes?
I somehow doubt the patch notes will mention more than "an alchemy boost to *4 effectiveness" and "several adjustments to T2 component manufacture time and T2 ship manufacture required material amounts".
I keep wondering what dev or devs are responsible for adjusting T2 production.
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Count MonteCarlo
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.11.28 17:01:00 -
[308]
Thanks for that post, I enjoy reading them, does this mean that the likely hood of technetium getting nerfed a lot lower than previously thought ?
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Tagami Wasp
Caldari Sarz'na Khumatari Ushra'Khan
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Posted - 2009.11.28 17:25:00 -
[309]
Not bad. Anyway, my isk are not in tech, but I like the boost the rest of the basket gets.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.28 17:33:00 -
[310]
Originally by: Count MonteCarlo Thanks for that post, I enjoy reading them, does this mean that the likely hood of technetium getting nerfed a lot lower than previously thought ?
I actually think so yes, though the likelihood of a Tech nerf was already fairly limited.
Compared to the situation before dominion this new situation (that is, probable tech and probable neo levels) has not just 2 immensely important moongoos with all others being sub-40%, but a wide range of important moongoo.
We see Mercury, Hafnium, platinum, Chromium and Cadmium all rising to far more significant usage % than before.
The three big R64's are all around 60-85%, and with their new less-than-top status, they will probably not see 100% productivity, raising their relative value. It's clear that this will create a very interesting market dynamic, as they rise and fall in relative prices, making alchemy more or less profitable for each of them over time, fluctuating as the 0.0 alliances take different space and moons fall and production levels change.
Tech leads, and that may or may not be a good thing, but it doesn't lead by anything like such an extreme amount as prom/dysp did. I expect CPP, having the knowledge of exact moon numbers, will probably have plugged their own values into the equasion themselves, and I think we're getting ever closer to their numbers.
Tech is a moongoo that is significantly present in low-sec, like Black Rise, unlike prom/dyspro, this means that unlike where Prom and Dyspro were 99% in titan-defended cyno-jammed systems there can be meaningful conflict over their possession that need not take years to plan and execute, nor does it need to rely on metagaming to see significant shifts in wealth-holders.
As it stands right now, I would think it would be in CCP's best interests to leave their new balance as they have put it on Sisi. The dynamic is both superior to what it was before and very interesting in its regional distribution. They can change it pretty much at any time if it gets out of hand, but right now I honestly can't see any reason for them to change it.
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Tagami Wasp
Caldari Sarz'na Khumatari Ushra'Khan
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Posted - 2009.11.28 21:45:00 -
[311]
To be honest I would not put it past them to seed in the future moongoo in exploration sites. If they do so, it will allow even better distribution.
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Spectre Wraith
Darwin Inc.
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Posted - 2009.11.28 22:17:00 -
[312]
Yeah I'm sure we could expect moon mins, and perhaps to some degree ice, from their comet project.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.28 22:46:00 -
[313]
Something like that would probably be the optimal method of adapting to the currently absolute limitation that moon count imposes on T2 production.
As it is whatever CCP does there will ALWAYS be a bottleneck and though they may reduce the need for individual moongoo like they've done now with Prom/Dyspro we see that players positive charge at the next detected bottleneck with wild abandon, with perfectly valid logic behind their reasoning as it will become valuable.
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2009.11.28 23:11:00 -
[314]
Patch notes kick out Chromium and Platinum as bottle necks. All hail our new Technetium overlords.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.28 23:22:00 -
[315]
Science and Industry
* The Tech 2 ship component composition has been changed. Full details can be found in the blog by CCP Chronotis The streams must flow. * Manufacture time for some construction components (armor plates and microprocessors) has been reduced. * The volume of carbides (advanced materials) has been reduced to 0.01m3 from 0.05m3. * The quantity of Sylramic Fibers required to produce the armor plate construction material has been reduced to 10 per unit.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2009.11.28 23:23:00 -
[316]
Originally by: Kanatta Jing Patch notes kick out Chromium and Platinum as bottle necks. All hail our new Technetium overlords.
But fear the stealth patch!
Show of hands, who thinks CCP will try to fix the bottleneck for T2 minerals using the same method they used to "fix" the T3 bottleneck?
\o/\o/\o/ o/\o \o o/ o/ o/ o/\o/ o/\o \o o/
(we all know little green men know best)
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.28 23:26:00 -
[317]
Pretty massive news from patch notes, though I am informed they have been out a few days already and I just wasn't told by anyone
Quote: Science and Industry
* The Tech 2 ship component composition has been changed. Full details can be found in the blog by CCP Chronotis The streams must flow. * Manufacture time for some construction components (armor plates and microprocessors) has been reduced. * The volume of carbides (advanced materials) has been reduced to 0.01m3 from 0.05m3. * The quantity of Sylramic Fibers required to produce the armor plate construction material has been reduced to 10 per unit.
The previous changes and adjustments (sylramics) are named specifically, no changes to Technetium!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.29 00:51:00 -
[318]
Edited by: Akita T on 29/11/2009 00:50:58
Originally by: Turiel Demon Pretty massive news from patch notes
The only "news" (as in, stuff not already observed on SiSi and/or talked the hell out in this very thread since a while ago) is the carbide volume reduction. Everything else is exactly as feared/hoped. /me rubs hands... nice ISK, come to my wallet.
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.29 01:06:00 -
[319]
ahahahahaha christ boy did they screw the pooch on this one
tech will be worth more than dyspro ever was
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.29 01:14:00 -
[320]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 29/11/2009 00:50:58
Originally by: Turiel Demon Pretty massive news from patch notes
The only "news" (as in, stuff not already observed on SiSi and/or talked the hell out in this very thread since a while ago) is the carbide volume reduction. Everything else is exactly as feared/hoped. /me rubs hands... nice ISK, come to my wallet.
the carbide has been there the whole time, it made it so armor plates are no longer a compression technique but it's going to be great for transport savings, plus making carbide towers require much less attention
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.29 01:49:00 -
[321]
Edited by: Turiel Demon on 29/11/2009 01:49:49 I meant news as in 'there is no bad news' hehe, suppose that's a bit contradictory, but 'HEY GUYS MASSIVE LACK OF NEWS!' doesn't quite have the same ring to it
EDIT: spelling
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Eisonar
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Posted - 2009.11.29 02:32:00 -
[322]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 29/11/2009 00:50:58
Originally by: Turiel Demon Pretty massive news from patch notes
The only "news" (as in, stuff not already observed on SiSi and/or talked the hell out in this very thread since a while ago) is the carbide volume reduction. Everything else is exactly as feared/hoped. /me rubs hands... nice ISK, come to my wallet.
/me can't wait for patchday.
Only problem I'm having now is whether or not I should buy more...
Hmmm...
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.29 04:54:00 -
[323]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA ahahahahaha christ boy did they screw the pooch on this one
tech will be worth more than dyspro ever was
If it is a true bottleneck, then expect all the other moon minerals to crash hard. That includes dyspro, think 2-5k range for that, a bit better than a cadmium moon. Its value will be in the ice needed to react it, probably done in place as much as possible. Everything will all be in surplus and all go down the same way if this is true.
I think there are still some fairly big unknowns in all of this, mainly confirmation on the number of moons and limits to the ability to double up moon mining and reactions on the same POS. That will force some market trading of raw moon minerals and act as a price support. Then there will be the final price restraint of the finished T2 product, I doubt the final product will increase in price, it is already at the most the market can take.
We will see once the patch hits. People are pretty much frozen right now.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Vodun
Viziam
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Posted - 2009.11.29 09:27:00 -
[324]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 23/11/2009 16:12:35
EDITS : p2#40 - v2 p4#94 - v3 p4#111 - v3b p5#132 - v3c p9#253 - v3d
This is the most detailed PUBLIC AND COMPLETELY VERIFIABLE Dominion market analysis so far. Well, at least as far as I know, anyway... and you don't have to take my word for anything I say below, check and double-check, maybe I actually made some mistakes.
For those interested in getting the full work data, it's available for download in Excel97 and Excel2007 formats below : http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/EVE_Dominion_Office1997.zip (~0.7 MB) http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/EVE_Dominion_Office2007.zip (~ 12 MB)
NOTES ON DOWNLOADS * the Excel2007 files contain a lot of additional data, and in case any more changes appear on SiSi, they are very easily updated * the Excel97 files can still update some data (including alchemy ratios and market amounts), but the formatting is a bit uglier * the screenshots that will be posted below are all taken from the Excel2007 version
ALCHEMY ADJUSTMENTS
Now, I did also include in the very end one section on alchemy, and that needs a bit of additional explanation. First off, it's next to impossible to determine the exact alchemy usage, because it depends on too many different factors. Basically, right now, the breakeven point (where you make no money but you lose no money) in alchemy is for price of replacement material ("low_ISK") = price of replaced material ("high_ISK") / the alchemy replacement rate (used to be 20, in dominion it's 5) - one hour's worth of medium tower fuel (used to be 100k or thereabouts) * (alchemyrate-1)/100. At the new alchemy rate and the old fuel costs, that means when low_ISK = (high_ISK/5) - 4000 ISK. Obviously, you want to make a profit or else there's no point in doing alchemy at all, so the price of the "low" material would have to be a bit below break-even value for you to start doing that. Instead of doing countless calculations, I have implemented a simplified (and therefore not entirely accurate, but then again, what is) system to very roughly estimate the alchemy reactions being done. All you have to do is set a ROUGH price multiplier between low_ISK and high_ISK (the pairings are easily visible and you'll figure which is which) - basically, it makes YOU take a more or less informed guess as to what the maximum price ratios could be between the moon mineral pairs where people would consider starting to do alchemy. The closer the number is to the alchemy rate, the more likely it is alchemy would start registering as profitable on that particular pair, and the rest is auto-estimated from there (amounts used, time spent, adjusted scarcities, etc). It's by no means fool-proof, but if you play around with those "trigger price ratios", you will see that the overall result is pretty robust and close enough to what actually happens.
WHAT IS BEING ANALYZED
The entire monthly trade of one region is broken down by T2 components, then by moon minerals used in the production of the components. Without knowing which and how many of the items are being sold directly to a customer by manufacturers, moved through a daytrader first, or resold by a previous customer, we have no choice but to assume the traded values are representative of the manufacture process (at least as far as ratios are concerned). Then, the same analysis is made using modified build amounts now live on SiSi, which may or may not be the final Dominion values. Finally, the differences between the current stuation and the upcoming Dominion situation are compared, with emphasis on percentual differences... since the amounts will undoubtedly change a lot after the patch (I'm giving some minor spoilers here - prices will generally go down and volumes up).
Get a life!! ---
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2009.11.29 09:56:00 -
[325]
Hey, Can't you see where trying to monger some fear here to exploit the market to our ends?
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.29 12:06:00 -
[326]
Originally by: Vodun
Get a life!!
Get some appreciation for the hard work someone put into giving you the opportunity to make more ISK.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.29 15:27:00 -
[327]
Originally by: Vodun Get a life!!
Get a brain !?!
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Johanna Outeston
Gallente District 4 Provisions
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Posted - 2009.11.29 16:35:00 -
[328]
Edited by: Johanna Outeston on 29/11/2009 16:37:27 Geez, give T some slack, she made A LOT Of poeple get some deeper pockets probably, well time to buy up my t2 component materials for the next 2 or 3 months.
Thanks for all of the hard work!
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Frecator Dementa
Caldari
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Posted - 2009.11.29 18:20:00 -
[329]
Originally by: Johanna Outeston Edited by: Johanna Outeston on 29/11/2009 16:37:27 Geez, give T some slack, he made A LOT Of poeple get some deeper pockets probably, well time to buy up my t2 component materials for the next 2 or 3 months.
Thanks for all of the hard work!
fixxd' ----------------------- forum ate my post again |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.29 19:29:00 -
[330]
lol @ GD people not being allowed to talk about tech/neo
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.29 20:37:00 -
[331]
Edited by: Akita T on 29/11/2009 20:37:49
Originally by: Turiel Demon lol @ GD people not being allowed to talk about tech/neo
"The less they know..."
P.S. Page 12 ? o.0
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hall vinal
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Posted - 2009.11.29 22:08:00 -
[332]
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. Page 12 ? o.0
it's a sign from god to forum ***** less :P
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.30 00:21:00 -
[333]
Tech 25 Sell orders in the past day (39 if you include trigger orders). 4 Buy orders, 3 of them at 11k in the past day. Substantial support is at 9.8k.
NEO 18 Sell orders, 21 if you include triggers. 11 buy orders at 14.5k. This is a reasonable amount of support.
Looks like Neo will be higher than Tech shortly. Claims of a Tech shortage remain to be seen on the market. Neo is tightening though.
Dysp 14 sell orders in the past day set to drop from 52k to 41k. 16 buy orders in the past day laddering down quickly to 25k. It will probably level off at 20-30k and then adjust further after the patch based on demand.
Prom 24 sell orders with a widening spread, set to drop to 31k from 41k level. 18 buy orders laddering down to 25k. Probably settling in the 15-25k range and then adjust further after the patch based on demand.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.30 00:53:00 -
[334]
From
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
Originally by: Tesal There is zero content to these posts, no technical data, just "this is up" or "buy this". This is not conducive to people buying into value, its conducive to ripping people off.
To
Originally by: Tesal Tech... NEO... Dysp... Prom...
in just 7 days.
I guess market will really explod after patch then?
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.30 03:31:00 -
[335]
Edited by: Tesal on 30/11/2009 03:32:44
Originally by: xylopia From
Originally by: Tesal Ok, now this is just getting stupid.
Originally by: Tesal There is zero content to these posts, no technical data, just "this is up" or "buy this". This is not conducive to people buying into value, its conducive to ripping people off.
To
Originally by: Tesal Tech... NEO... Dysp... Prom...
in just 7 days.
I guess market will really explod after patch then?
Could be 2 weeks. Things will get goofy once the patch hits. That is what I think they are worth.
*edit That is based on stocks on hand, and price supports in place and perceived value. Could change if someone decides to "alter" it. The market will win in the end though.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 07:54:00 -
[336]
Originally by: Tesal That is based on stocks on hand, and price supports in place and perceived value. Could change if someone decides to "alter" it. The market will win in the end though.
On the buyer side, prices are too high for non-speculators right now (dysprosium, promethium and all related materials haven't yet crashed far enough) to put up buy orders, and most of the speculators are either already heavily invested or pretty cautious before the patch actually hits considering the possible risks. Most buy orders up right now are from speculators that don't mind taking some risks, with only very few orders from people that actually need it for reactions.
On the seller side, while some "mined technetium" owners could be already tempted to sell now if they need a quick buck, most of them (the ones with big piles anyway) are holding on for additional price increases, since their mentality is slightly different from that of most speculators. Speculators that bought it at a higher price and/or speculators certain the prices will rise even more won't unload yet. Some sell orders right now are from smaller moon miners that managed to get some technetium extracted before the big names swooped in (with a massive fleet knocking the moons from under them) and are in need of urgent cash. Most of the sell orders however are from speculators that bought technetium cheaply and are uncertain about the future of the price.
On the stockpiles and potential supply side, things get tricky.
There is no clear data as to how much technetium is stockpiled on active accounts and accessible corp hangars (for all we know, there could be a year's usage worth of technetium available there OR EVEN MORE), which could delay the stabilization of prices for a very long time.
We are also uncertain about technetium moon counts, as there could be as little as 370 or (according to some people, not me) there could be as many as 800+ tech moons game-wide (with 370 being most likely a lot closer to the actual number than 800 or more). WHY ? Well, we only have about 230 technetium moons confirmed, with a vast majority of them (197, so a little over 85% of the confirmed ones) concentrated in six reasonably well scouted Guristas/Caldari regions only. Those six regions were not completely scouted (there could be about 20 more moons in there), and there are three Guristas regions that weren't scouted much at all, but there could be as little as just 90 extra technetium moons in those three regions, and let's say 30 more game-wide, for a grand total of about 370 technetium moons overall. Of course, the moon count could have been severely underreported, but there is no pertinent reason to assume the underreporting factor is THAT high - even an *1.5 correction would be pretty far-fetched in my opinion, let alone a *2.something as some people seem to imply would be "closer to reality".
Right now, the price level ONLY reflects a portion of the overall perceived future value of technetium (I say a portion because dysprosium and promethium still need to go down even more), and is not even remotely representative of the actual long-term equilibrium price. For the price to even go ANYWHERE NEAR that equilibrium price, several things must happen: * CCP needs to not fiddle with anything T2-related in the near future (at least 3 months, preferably longer) * the (currently VERY HIGH) technetium/neodymium and related stocks need to get used up * the (currently LOW) dysprosium/promethium and related stocks need to go up, significantly higher than the dropping tech/neo stockpiles If any of the above conditions is not met, technetium (and neodymium) prices can't approach their long-term equilibrium level yet.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.11.30 09:11:00 -
[337]
W/ CCP keeping their lips tight over how dreadful new t2 market looks, I can only guess they are saying 'buddy, I don't think so' or 'pal, we shall see' behind their closed vault door for whatever reason they are holding onto.
I was rather surprise to find out CCP actually gave the current change on sisi a go. Market fluctuation, massive stock @ 4-4 or somewhere out there, and etc are more than fully expected.
I was actually pointing out ppl accusing this thread of 'manipulation', 'stupid', 'no value' completely turned out to be ardent devotees singing the same hymn in even higher tone as patch day just b4 their nose.
Another awesome show right there.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:14:00 -
[338]
Allegedly (can't verify right now but will soon), CCP devs _have_ made a last-minute change : the nanotransistor reaction yields 3000 instead of 1500. If true (and if only this change was made), this significantly reduces bottlenecks (which will translate into overall lower T2 prices and moon-mineral basket prices. But it also _KILLS_ the relative value of neodymium (to barely ~52%), putting it behind (in the most likely scarcity order) technetium (still the main bottleneck at 100%), platinum (~79%), chromium (~78%), dysprosium (~73%) and promethium (~67%).
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:27:00 -
[339]
Just updated SiSi (damn you hidden patch files) and logged in. False alarm, the reaction still yields the same 1500, NOT 3000.
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Stanfer
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:36:00 -
[340]
Originally by: Akita T Just updated SiSi (damn you hidden patch files) and logged in. False alarm, the reaction still yields the same 1500, NOT 3000.
Oh god, I logged in to cancel a market order for Neo and found that it had been filled :( Then I saw your update and cheered!
\o/
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22ww
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:40:00 -
[341]
I read that and nearly had a heart attack, especially as my sisi client isn't currently working. Thanks for checking that Akita, all it cost me were a few broker fees. |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:44:00 -
[342]
i have to give credit. seeding rumors when the majority of players are unable to check themselfs at sisi... seems like someone wanted to jump the tech train and intended to lower its price a little before doing that.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:10:00 -
[343]
All in ! Call ?
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:10:00 -
[344]
Edited by: EvilCheez on 30/11/2009 14:11:32 Akita you really shouldn't let them get to you like that.......24K
I hope you weren't too rash
edit : I almost beat you back here
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22ww
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:14:00 -
[345]
Well Akita no one should ever accuse you of not beliveing what you post on the fourms. Well played for sticking with it and I think everyone whos reading this thread wishes you luck.
(Akita just single handedly pushed the sells on Technetium past 28k)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:19:00 -
[346]
Since I'm giving it very good odds we'll see STEADY tech prices above 30k by New Year's Eve, 45k by early February and up to over 70k by early March (when my bond ends, and I doubt CCP would make a move before Tech reaches at least 80k or even 100k), from my viewpoint even purchasing at 30k would be borderline justifiable right now (hell, even 50k).
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:35:00 -
[347]
The rumour-monger is either laying it on very thick (and somewhat creatively) or the 80K tech level is more likely:
http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1222878&page=1#4
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:43:00 -
[348]
Edited by: Akita T on 30/11/2009 14:45:38
Actually, I just re-did the calcs with the "3000 instead of 1500" and something funny popped up.
BEFORE Dominion, the bottleneck was dysprosium at roughly 58% of estimated total extraction potential used in the sample.
AFTER Dominion, WITH the 3000-per-batch nanotransistors, the bottleneck is still technetium, and that at an estimated ~410 total tech moon count (230 on 56% coverage flat distribution of uncharted area, which is actually more generous than the more likely 370 count). And that at *drum roll* almost 49% of estimated total extraction potential for the very same sample. With 370 moons total, that's roughly 54% of potential extraction total.
Bottom line, the basket level drop won't be nearly as severe as I initially feared (noticeably less than half was feared, 20%-30% drop maximum actually expected now) in case the 1500->3000 change DOES actually happen, and technetium is still poised to suck in the vast majority of ISK into it, even if there's slightly less total ISK to go around per item (not MUCH less, just slightly less).
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:49:00 -
[349]
Originally by: Akita T EVEN IF the rumours of the alleged 1500->3000 nanotransistors reaction would actually be true
Those rumours are totally nonsense and a weak attempt at market manipulation. A couple of refutations to that rumour are already posted.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:54:00 -
[350]
Oops, there goes tech again...
----------------------------------------
Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 14:58:00 -
[351]
Originally by: Akita T Since I'm giving it very good odds we'll see STEADY tech prices above 30k by New Year's Eve, 45k by early February and up to over 70k by early March ...
From my viewpoint even purchasing at 30k would be borderline justifiable right now (hell, even 50k).
Interesting enough is that the composite material based on Technetium like PT is still pretty cheap.
Any explanations for that?
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.11.30 15:05:00 -
[352]
Originally by: Gnulpie Interesting enough is that the composite material based on Technetium like PT is still pretty cheap. Any explanations for that?
Until 5 seconds ago
----------------------------------------
Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
Mihoko Nakahara
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Posted - 2009.11.30 15:30:00 -
[353]
Just tested Simon's reaction on Sisi. Looks like it's legit :( Not as bad as he predicted though, which is good.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 15:46:00 -
[354]
I just ran MY numbers. You know, the personal numbers as I just ran out of liquid ISK (barely scraping the barrel at only a few bil ISK liquid). For the bond and stuff. Even if I sell my technetium stocks at 5k per unit (yes, I said 5k, not 50k per unit), at the current market sell order levels for everything else in stock (so only the rest of the items), after fees, upon returning the appropriate amounts plus bond bonus to everybody who loaned me some cash, I still end up with a (tiny) net profit compared to the point I started at. Heh. A lot of work would have been for nothing, but then again, what if I sell them at 75k or more per unit ?
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.30 16:22:00 -
[355]
Ive still have what I consider quite a bit of PT, but I'm still half hoping the rumor will be confirmed just to see this thing go to 20 pages by patchtime
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 16:35:00 -
[356]
At this point I'm too tired to actually set up a POS, load up the reaction then wait and see the actual results. It would be nice if some other (reasonably trustworthy due to reputation) parties could either confirm or deny this in some way (heck, if they responded to his petition request, I guess they could answer somebody else's petition about it too - or just go the standard way and actually run the reaction).
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 16:53:00 -
[357]
Originally by: Akita T It would be nice if some other (reasonably trustworthy due to reputation) parties could either confirm or deny this in some way
Currently Sisi is down for (unscheduled) downtime. So it might take a bit. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.30 17:07:00 -
[358]
Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch. If true, I wonder what "other" surprises slipped unnoticed past the patchnotes team. Also, if true, I am rather shocked they bothered changing a reaction instead of doing it the same way they already did it before, by altering component counts and manufacture times... or, rather said, annoyed that they didn't just do that for all reactions in the first place while leaving the components alone.
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EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.30 17:30:00 -
[359]
sisi's patched and there is no change to the actual reaction blueprint, and I highly doubt the description on the details page is seperate from the actual values, it would be easier to program it to pull those directly from the real values
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.30 17:45:00 -
[360]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA sisi's patched and there is no change to the actual reaction blueprint, and I highly doubt the description on the details page is seperate from the actual values, it would be easier to program it to pull those directly from the real values
Yah, it was a hoax. Was nice for tech to be slightly lower while it lasted - there really are a lot of jittery people around so close to patch - but meh, not really significant.
Roll on the ISK train, I suppose.
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Astreaul
Gallente EuDoTeK Forn Sidr Fyrd
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Posted - 2009.11.30 18:16:00 -
[361]
tl;dr
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.30 18:22:00 -
[362]
Originally by: Astreaul tl;dr
tl;dr a lot of us are now monstrously rich. Or at least more so than we were before.
The closest I can think of to an actual tl;dr is one of my posts from a few pages back - here.
Really, if you want more info than that you're going to have to try to read Akita's posts, and any others that look long enough to contain interesting info - it doesn't simplify easily I'm afraid.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 19:16:00 -
[363]
Originally by: Akita T Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-) |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 19:21:00 -
[364]
Originally by: Gnulpie
Originally by: Akita T Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-)
that looks like a lot of work for proving a troll, who got backed by his alt, wrong. Thanks anyway
oh, and even with tech calculated at 26k a unit, nanotransistors produce at about 2k each... so i know what i would buy :)
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Simon Mickey
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Posted - 2009.11.30 19:53:00 -
[365]
The price of tech has hit 23.9k or thereabouts last I checked, and it's set to rise as the demand for it skyrockets.
The reaction does indeed yield only 1.5k, not 3k.
Good news for everyone who's invested in it
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.11.30 20:11:00 -
[366]
This was the usage given general sales numbers of ships over a space of a month about 2 months ago, from most used, to least used. Silicates - Platinum - Evaporate Deposits - Chromium - Cadmium - Promethium - Hydrocarbons - Dysprosium - Vanadium - Technetium - Mercury - Hafnium - Cobalt - Atmospheric Gases - Neodymium - Caesium - Titanium - Tungsten - Thulium - Scandium
This is after Dominion, same quantity of ships, again from most used to least used. Evaporate Deposits - Silicates - Platinum - Chromium - Atmospheric Gases - Hydrocarbons - Cadmium - Technetium - Titanium - Vanadium - Cobalt - Mercury - Tungsten - Neodymium - Scandium - Promethium - Hafnium - Dysprosium - Caesium - Thulium
This is the list of increased usage from largest increase to smallest. Scandium - Tungsten - Atmospheric Gases - Titanium - Evaporate Deposits - Silicates - Cobalt - Technetium - Platinum - Chromium - Hydrocarbons - Neodymium - Vanadium - Mercury - Cadmium - Hafnium - Caesium - Dysprosium - Promethium - Thulium
What got me was why Tungsten was on the list of getting a bigger increase of usage, and something like Cadmium and Caesium wasn't, considering those two make up Galantee ships (Armor tankers) and Ore ships I expected their usage to go up, more then Titanium which is shield tanker. So I went digging into my sheet. For the most part almost ALL T2 ships have same usage of components. All the interceptors, Maruadas, Cover-ops, HACs etc all use exactly the same number of each component. Which is fine because price variances are because of material variances and popularity. This is why an Amarr HAC is priced different from Caldari HAC.. The increases and decreases on components that make up those ships all went up and down by similar values. Like a Assault frigate for either 1500% or 1250% increase in armor plates.. This is true all the way up until you get to Command Ships.
For some reason, Command Ships use different amounts of components according to what they are really designed to do. Clearly CCP being considerate to how the ship would be used. Or an example of CCP getting lazy the more ships they add to the game. For example, why does a Paladin use the same number of armor plates and shield emitters as a Golem for example. Clearly CCP got lazy or at least at some point thought WHY?!?!!
So Command Ships appear to be the legacy of more in-depth consideration for component usage, however all that is changing. CCP is now taking CS to the SAME level as every other CS type. Meaning The Amarr Fleet CS (Damnation) uses the same number of components as the Caldari Fleet CS (Vulture). I wasn't too interested in decreases in component usage as that would be a sign of reduction in usage. Only increases.
This limited it down to Processor, Sensor, Capacitor, Armor.
What's interesting about this is not so much the 1000%+ for armor plates, but the 570%+ for the Absolution's Processors and 180%+ for Sensors. Since the Absoultion is more popular Amarr CS, expect the price of these to go WAY up, as it also received the lowest amount of "Reductions" apart from Reactors, which it received the average amount, (9%).
While my original question as to why Tungsten is still heavily used is not really answered, I find this info pretty revealing.
As a Absolution Pilot I think I might go and get me some now, while they are just 200mil instead of 500mil :)
Amarr for Life |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.30 20:11:00 -
[367]
Originally by: Simon Mickey The price of tech has hit 23.9k or thereabouts last I checked, and it's set to rise as the demand for it skyrockets.
The reaction does indeed yield only 1.5k, not 3k.
Good news for everyone who's invested in it
Bastard
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:06:00 -
[368]
Originally by: Gnulpie
Originally by: Akita T Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-)
Sisi, latest build 117956, just 7 hours before dowtime for expansion: Nanotransistor reaction yields 1500 units.
So the train can continue to roll.
And the price for Nanotransistors got pushed now to above 7k
Maybe the bottleneck is not Technetium but Nanotransistors and the amount of reactors/logistic necessary to build all those nanotrans. |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:30:00 -
[369]
Also depends on the increase in Microprocessor production. Patch notes said they would not take as long to build, but that could be half the time or one-fifth the time. The faster they are to build the sooner the nanotransistor stocks dwindle.
BTW - Quantum Microprocessor are still selling at under 14K. If nothing changes, the nanotransistors in the microprocessors are worth 25K.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:32:00 -
[370]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 30/11/2009 21:33:17 i did some minimal math on nanotransistors, and, very roughly, a rise in tech of 30k results in a rise of nanos of 1000, so with a nano price of 4k, you could buy tech at about 90k and still not make a loss... i really dont think that, besides speculation caused, we will see a shortage in nano (and its reactors)
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Furious Ratter
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:36:00 -
[371]
The problem with nanotransistors might not be the price of manufacture materials, but the amount of reactors needed to produce them - it all depends on how fast the reaction guys will react on this.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 12:28:00 -
[372]
Yeah, finished products and advanced materials should spike for a while well above material costs, but then the moon minerals will follow suit too, if not already driven to the appropriate levels by speculation. But before all that (or at least at roughly the same time), we need to see a dramatic drop in price for dysprosium and promethium related products, and I do mean "omg, what the hell just happened with the prices, why did they drop so much" kind of dramatic.
_
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22ww
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Posted - 2009.12.01 12:44:00 -
[373]
In case anyone was wondering CCP has made a few unrelated additions to the patch notes, but nothing that will effect the market. Should be an interesting patch day.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 12:54:00 -
[374]
Originally by: 22ww In case anyone was wondering CCP has made a few unrelated additions to the patch notes, but nothing that will effect the market. Should be an interesting patch day.
See post 365, the one that started the rumour initially admitted to it having been a hoax. Most likely intended to have people panic-sell to one of his buy orders
_
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22ww
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:12:00 -
[375]
Edited by: 22ww on 01/12/2009 13:13:30 I wasn't refering to the rumor that you already helped discredit, but to any other market related change CCP would be unlikely to pre announce. I'm a bit relived but I won't relax untill I log into TQ again.
I hate to disagree with you since you've been correct on so many predictions before but I'm expecting overall lower price levels on finished ships. With the removal of the old bottlenecks and huge stocks in the way of any potential new ones producers will be undercutting eachother agressivly. Long term this means a lower equilibrium price level.
Even with all the advance knowledge of the changes we have, and subsiquently increased prices on several components the market for finished t2 ships is just too big to be moved by short term market fluctuations. Unlike the market for moon materials which you've shown is quite fun to play with. |
Furious Ratter
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:34:00 -
[376]
I dare to think Akita is aiming elsewhere here.
Lots of people hold huge reserves of moon materials, and few large reserves of simple reactions. But Im not sure how much nanotransistors is stockpiled, which might be the limited factor for t2 production.
Technetium / Neo / Simple reactions can get supressed for few weeks by people releasing all the reserves theyve been stockpiling, but if the amount of reactors isnt sufficient and someone clears of the nanotransistors and keeps clearing them regulary, whole empire t2 manufacturing business gets a kick in the nuts.
Lets call it... The Nanotransistors Crisis (*dramatic music*)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:36:00 -
[377]
Edited by: Akita T on 01/12/2009 13:42:06
Originally by: 22ww I hate to disagree with you since you've been correct on so many predictions before but I'm expecting overall lower price levels on finished ships. With the removal of the old bottlenecks and huge stocks in the way of any potential new ones producers will be undercutting eachother agressivly. Long term this means a lower equilibrium price level.
On the chosen sample, let's assume for simplicity's sake all of it is "freshly manufactured". If it's not, then we could assume it's roughly the same in terms of new vs recycled-into-the-market items, so the ratios won't be changing. Let's look at bottlenecks... BEFORE Dominion, the bottlenecks were dysprosium and promethium, with the sample using up an estimated 58% (give or take) of the global production potential. AFTER Dominion, the bottleneck will be mainly technetium, with the exact same sample using up now an estimated 68% of the global production potential, the next bottleneck being neodymium at around 48% of the global production potential.
That would translate LONG TERM into (roughly) 15% less *NEW* T2 ships on the market compared to before Dominion, on top of the drastic increase in T2 component manufacture times for each individual ship. For instance, in Dominion it takes, what, more than a week to manufacture the T2 components for a Hulk ? Compared to what, one day before ? That's, let's say, at least +10 mil per Hulk in manufacture overhead alone, on top of material price increases too. Hulks going eventually for around 100 mil a piece would be almost a certainty, with the actual pricetag very likely to become even higher.
Short-to-medium term however, we may see a drop in price as technetium stockpiles all around EVE are being slowly but surely liquidated at ever increasing prices.
VERY short term, prices will spike due to lack of T2 components. It's all waves and waves of price changes
__
These numbers are with a rough total technetium moon estimate of around 410, even if most likely that number is at around only 370.
There would have to be roughly 480 technetium moons in the game for the overall bottleneck in production to remain at the same level as before Dominion i.e. roughly 58% of total production (with technetium still the main bottleneck) so the same rough amounts of T2 goods would keep being manufactured. There would have to be roughly 590 technetium moons for technetium to become as scarce (relatively) as neodymium and share roughly the same unit prices, and in that case the number of T2 ships (and items in general) would be significantly larger (and therefore cheaper).
Speaking long-term of course, short term it's CHAOS.
_
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:38:00 -
[378]
Originally by: Furious Ratter but if the amount of reactors isnt sufficient and someone clears of the nanotransistors and keeps clearing them regulary, whole empire t2 manufacturing business gets a kick in the nuts.
Lets call it... The Nanotransistors Crisis (*dramatic music*)
You're too late. I already called it 'the panic'.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:43:00 -
[379]
That's only one part of the problem, TD See above edits for the other reasons I make that call.
_
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 14:06:00 -
[380]
Originally by: 22ww Well Akita no one should ever accuse you of not beliveing what you post on the fourms. Well played for sticking with it and I think everyone whos reading this thread wishes you luck. (Akita just single handedly pushed the sells on Technetium past 28k)
A belated thank you for this post - I somehow managed to skip it before DT, and noticed it now as I was checking up on something else.
BTW, I have almost 70 Bil invested in technetium now, but that number was barely over 9 Bil before I "got angry" and liquidated some other stocks to "buy out" the technetium market between 14:00 and 15:00 server time just before the patch. Precise numbers (alongside other interesting things) are in my bond thread.
_
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.01 14:54:00 -
[381]
Originally by: Akita T BTW, I have almost 70 Bil invested in technetium now, but that number was barely over 9 Bil before I "got angry" and liquidated some other stocks to "buy out" the technetium market between 14:00 and 15:00 server time just before the patch.
Dear God, this is a sign of madness. Any sane person would have dumped everything right before the patch and taken their profits. If you are right, you are a crazy genius. If you are wrong, I pity your poor investors.
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Ms Pussycat
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Posted - 2009.12.01 15:12:00 -
[382]
You should also take into your consideration the relative efficiency of moon mining operations in the north (where is is suspected most the tech moons are) as more and more people put their eyes and fleets on a direct course to burn the north to the ground.
Its time to redefine market-based PVP.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 15:26:00 -
[383]
Edited by: Akita T on 01/12/2009 15:32:53
Originally by: Claire Voyant Dear God, this is a sign of madness. Any sane person would have dumped everything right before the patch and taken their profits. If you are right, you are a crazy genius. If you are wrong, I pity your poor investors.
Worst case scenario at this point (even if technetium crashes for some obscure reason or belated CCP intervention to barely 5k per unit or thereabouts) is that I make very little profit after I pay everything back My technetium stocks are at an average buy price of under 12k per unit. I already had made 30 bil _profit_ from the sales before the technetium buyout (and that sold stock was less than half of my pre-technetium-buyout stocks). The details are in the bond thread
Besides, wasn't being crazy a prerequisite for being a genius ?
_
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2009.12.01 16:57:00 -
[384]
Edited by: Le Skunk on 01/12/2009 17:01:33
Why aint chromium gone up then?
Im very disappointed. Following Akita T's Slimfast Plan has gained me only around 7 billion isk in profit, whereas my 10meg mega spreadsheet told me i would make 8 billions isk profit - but chromium turned out to be a dud tip.
Please can someone manipulate the old market somehow on chromium so i can make more iskies
I would stay to chat but my oversized mobile phone is ringing "whats that... ya ya... buy buy... SELL..."
SKUNK (o)
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Count MonteCarlo
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.12.01 19:54:00 -
[385]
Looks like we're in the clear
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.12.01 20:03:00 -
[386]
Originally by: Count MonteCarlo Looks like we're in the clear
good times to be had
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Pohbis
Neo T.E.C.H.
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Posted - 2009.12.01 20:57:00 -
[387]
Originally by: Le Skunk Why aint chromium gone up then?
Because they stealth-slashed demand by 60% and everyone is trying to silently get rid of it atm ;)
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2009.12.01 21:03:00 -
[388]
Originally by: Pohbis
Originally by: Le Skunk Why aint chromium gone up then?
Because they stealth-slashed demand by 60% and everyone is trying to silently get rid of it atm ;)
Thank you
SKUNK (o)
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Pohbis
Neo T.E.C.H.
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Posted - 2009.12.01 21:29:00 -
[389]
Originally by: Le Skunk Thank you
You're welcome. I got out of the chrom race even before it started, since after buying stock I remembered how much CCP hates Angel space... and sold at break even.
Wish I would have put all that in Tech now tho :/
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:07:00 -
[390]
Originally by: Pohbis Because they stealth-slashed demand by 60% and everyone is trying to silently get rid of it atm ;)
What do you mean by "stealth" ? If you mean the Sylramic Fibers reduction from 30 to 10, we've been talking about it in here since the early pages.
_
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Quince Dupree
Gallente H A V O C Against ALL Authorities
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:11:00 -
[391]
Lets talk about this chomium moons I have about 6 towers up on them atm, are they gonna even break even on fuel?
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:17:00 -
[392]
Originally by: Quince Dupree Lets talk about this chomium moons I have about 6 towers up on them atm, are they gonna even break even on fuel?
Chromium pretty much isn't going to change its level of demand... you'll be fine, just like before.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:17:00 -
[393]
Originally by: Quince Dupree Lets talk about this chomium moons I have about 6 towers up on them atm, are they gonna even break even on fuel?
What size tower are you using? Small definitely, large probably, but why would you use a large if you were just mining?
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Quince Dupree
Gallente H A V O C Against ALL Authorities
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:26:00 -
[394]
med towers I also have a few platium so i hope something works out :(
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:30:00 -
[395]
Edited by: Akita T on 01/12/2009 22:31:05
Chromium price should stabilize at roughly the same level (possibly a bit lower) it had near the peak alchemy usage time period - sylramic fiber usage was indeed cut PER PLATE, but plate usage in general and Caldari carbide usage in particular was drastically increased, so overall, about as much as used to go into alchemy should go now into additional T2 components. So, yes, unless your tower magically eats up well over 200 mil in fuel per month, you should still be able to make some semblance of revenue off of those moons even if all you have is a chromium extractor.
Platinum price should actually increase heavily in Dominion, even above Chromium price. So no problems there either.
_
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:53:00 -
[396]
I'm at work, is anything interesting happening?
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:56:00 -
[397]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I'm at work, is anything interesting happening?
Neodymium & nanotransistors fairly stable at 17.2k and 3400 (last I checked); Technetium held at ~24000 and then people started selling it and undercutting in their typically idiotic fashion. When I logged out it was at about 19k.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.02 00:23:00 -
[398]
Tech sell orders have over a million units above 22k and 16 sell orders in the past day.
Buy orders are held up by a single pre patch 256k unit blocking order at 17.8k per unit. Once that order clears the next level of support is at 11-12k.
Oh god. Somebody better jump in and prop up the price. Hurry. Do it now.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.02 00:39:00 -
[399]
Originally by: Tesal Tech sell orders have over a million units above 22k and 16 sell orders in the past day.
Buy orders are held up by a single pre patch 256k unit blocking order at 17.8k per unit. Once that order clears the next level of support is at 11-12k.
Oh god. Somebody better jump in and prop up the price. Hurry. Do it now.
Ehm no? some of those 12.200 ones are mine
Nothing to see here, Tech is just going down, it's normal market presures, there's no real demand for Tech it's all speculation!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.02 02:03:00 -
[400]
Originally by: Tesal Tech sell orders [...] past day [...] Buy orders are held up by [...] the next level of support [...] Oh god [...] better jump in [...]
You know as well as I do that prices this week and probably next week too will be completely chaotic, snapping both ways on a nearly daily basis, with total mayhem during the weekend(s).
_
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.02 02:48:00 -
[401]
By chance, has anyone had any problems with disappearing assets?
I had a 24 hour sell order up and went to check it after the patch. It's off my Orders listing, my transaction history doesn't show that it sold, it's not in my hanger, nor is it in my deliveries.
What the hell?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.02 02:51:00 -
[402]
Originally by: Melleia I had a 24 hour sell order up and went to check it after the patch. It's off my Orders listing, my transaction history doesn't show that it sold, it's not in my hanger, nor is it in my deliveries.
This is the expected behaviour of expired orders. The goods will appear in your hangar after the next downtime.
_
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.02 02:55:00 -
[403]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Melleia I had a 24 hour sell order up and went to check it after the patch. It's off my Orders listing, my transaction history doesn't show that it sold, it's not in my hanger, nor is it in my deliveries.
This is the expected behaviour of expired orders. The goods will appear in your hangar after the next downtime.
Well damnit...I was hoping to unload some Tech before prices dropped and buy when they did :(
Oh well, it's a cycle, it'll happen again.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.02 14:08:00 -
[404]
Originally by: Melleia Oh well, it's a cycle, it'll happen again.
Just make sure you don't flip your stock in the wrong part of each "cycle" Also, not so much cycles per se, but oscillations around an increasing price trend line.
_
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Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.02 14:20:00 -
[405]
Originally by: Melleia Oh well, it's a cycle, it'll happen again.
"All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.02 15:18:00 -
[406]
Poor Neodymium.
Soooooo much stock out there, stockpiled in case it was the bottleneck. it'll all hit the markets over the next few months I expect - glad I could unload mine on 13-15k buy orders
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Gella Darru
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Posted - 2009.12.02 17:33:00 -
[407]
is it wrong of me to giggle at the people selling off their technetium at 19k isk because they are in such a hurry for a smallish profit?
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.02 17:53:00 -
[408]
Originally by: Gella Darru is it wrong of me to giggle at the people selling off their technetium at 19k isk because they are in such a hurry for a smallish profit?
Yes, but not for the reason you think.
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2009.12.02 18:47:00 -
[409]
Occures to me that a lot of market reserve will have to sell before market pressure will change sufficiently for minning behaviour to change enough to reach the Technetium bottle neck.
Namely a small gold rush in each of these sufficient to prompt people to actually set up more POS's
evaporite deposites Silicates chromium platinum Atmospheric Hydro Carbons Titanium
Until more of all of these minerals is mined the demand for Tech is either artificial or simply wisely invested for a couple months down the road..
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.02 19:47:00 -
[410]
Originally by: Kanatta Jing And with the Market hub bub the Tech reserves will take a while to fully deplete.
I'd say two to three months for a noticeably higher stable Technetium price, and anywhere from six to nine months for the prices to go REALLY high.
_
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.02 23:11:00 -
[411]
Originally by: Gella Darru is it wrong of me to giggle at the people selling off their technetium at 19k isk because they are in such a hurry for a smallish profit?
Sold @ 22k p/u, and had a buy order @ 15k p/u, what's the problem?
Make a ton of cash and keep my stockpile up at the same time \o/
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.03 09:24:00 -
[412]
Originally by: Kanatta Jing Edited by: Kanatta Jing on 02/12/2009 19:12:03 Occures to me that a lot of market reserve will have to sell before market pressure will change sufficiently for minning behaviour to change enough to reach the Technetium bottle neck.
Namely a small gold rush in each of these sufficient to prompt people to actually set up more POS's
evaporite deposites Silicates chromium platinum Atmospheric Hydro Carbons Titanium
Until more of all of these minerals is mined the demand for Tech is either artificial or simply wisely invested for a couple months down the road..
And with the Market hub bub the Tech reserves will take a while to fully deplete.
Reaction POS can also mine, that is the biggest factor I think. The leftovers are sold on the market. Its a matter of optimization. In some cases there are moons with both materials needed for a basic reaction, but this is rare. Its the same ice cost to mine the material yourself or put up a silo in place of a miner, a miner is seen as "free" minerals by a lot of people who do reactions. If you run out of optimized moons and people start having to put dedicated mining POS up, "wasting" cpu and ice without doing reactions, that is when the costs go above 100 isk for these low ends. I think this is likely with all the carbides now as there are not enough well placed moons to be practical. Its a question of how many "free mineral" pos remain, that mine and don't do reactions, like death stars for staging POS with a token miner. Its also a matter of convenience and safety, is it better to spread your POS out over 20 systems, or create a giant farm covering 40 moons in one system with cyno jammers, the cyno jammers would reduce risk and thus cost.
There are price levels at about 200 isk, 400 isk and 800 isk for profitably running a small POS per unit of minerals in 0.0. This is based on the cost of ice for a small POS compared to the abundance level of the material being mined. Sov gives an ice bonus. Those are rough values. Profit is in addition to that. This strongly influences the price levels and where people place their reaction towers. The price needs to be about 1000 isk for people to be willing to mine, this is why you see so many moon minerals all around the same price level.
It also depends on how many people don't mine at all and simply throw some reactors on a POS they already have up and buy materials, in that case values will trend towards 800 isk I think. Cyno jammers become an important factor in this.
Carbides low ends are a big unknown for me. There are simply too many factors for me to get an accurate picture. My gut says 300-600 isk range with some getting above 800 isk maybe. At about 1000 isk people will start putting up small POS to mine that material, so its a hard limit. Frankly though, some of these materials might not make it above 300 isk some might permanently rise above 800 isk, some might become unsellable in volume from these factors. Its a total crap shoot.
There is also an interesting factor at play here now that is not much discussed. If low end prices rise, this will inflate T2 ship build costs greatly. This will prevent people from buying T2 as much, and reduce volume. This creates a downward pressure on high end moons. This is what is importantly different between pre-dominion moons and post dominion in my opinion. The underbelly of the moon mineral basket is not quite as worthless as it used to be and might be a price factor for the long term. For laughs revalue all R4, R8 to at least 1000 isk or so and see what you get on your spread sheet for build costs, then deduct the difference from high ends until it reaches the historical level for that item, or what is a tolerable price. This idea makes T2 prices much more complex and volatile if it is true.
Maybe I am dead wrong though, and my info is old. Meh. Fun to think about though.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.03 15:02:00 -
[413]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/12/2009 15:04:34
Originally by: Tesal Reaction POS can also mine, that is the biggest factor I think.[...]If you run out of optimized moons and people start having to put dedicated mining POS up, "wasting" cpu and ice without doing reactions, that is when the costs go above 100 isk for these low ends. I think this is likely with all the carbides now as there are not enough well placed moons to be practical.
The current estimates are that there will be at least 9000 simple reactions running on POSes as a grand total EVE-wide, given estimated bottlenecks. The more simple reactions will exist on POSes cranking out underused simple reaction stuff, the lower the price goes, so I seriously doubt the number of simple reactions that will be run will be much higher than that. The LARGEST problems currently in that scenario are silicates and evaporite deposits, which would have to have roughly 1800 POSes involving evaporite/silicates combo reactions, roughly 900 involving silicates with something else and another 900 involving evaporite with something else... in the long run. In the short run, that number is actually much, much higher, since the new bottleneck materials have huge stockpiles that need to be first depleted before prices go up.
Compared to that, BEFORE Dominion, we would have had only roughly 6000 simple reactions running, with 900 on silicate/evaporite pair, 400 additional on evaporite with something else and 600 on silicates with something else.
Even long-term, the need for each roughly doubles, as you can see... still, long-term, there should be well over 15k moons of each type available (probably closer to 18k of each) as a grand total. So it's not so much a question of being able to find the proper "mine and react directly" moons, but the ability to find AND EXPLOIT them in a reasonable timeframe... many more than needed in the long run, because the short-term spikes are horribly high.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.03 19:02:00 -
[414]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 03/12/2009 15:04:34
Originally by: Tesal Reaction POS can also mine, that is the biggest factor I think.[...]If you run out of optimized moons and people start having to put dedicated mining POS up, "wasting" cpu and ice without doing reactions, that is when the costs go above 100 isk for these low ends. I think this is likely with all the carbides now as there are not enough well placed moons to be practical.
The current estimates are that there will be at least 9000 simple reactions running on POSes as a grand total EVE-wide, given estimated bottlenecks. The more simple reactions will exist on POSes cranking out underused simple reaction stuff, the lower the price goes, so I seriously doubt the number of simple reactions that will be run will be much higher than that. The LARGEST problems currently in that scenario are silicates and evaporite deposits, which would have to have roughly 1800 POSes involving evaporite/silicates combo reactions, roughly 900 involving silicates with something else and another 900 involving evaporite with something else... in the long run. In the short run, that number is actually much, much higher, since the new bottleneck materials have huge stockpiles that need to be first depleted before prices go up.
Compared to that, BEFORE Dominion, we would have had only roughly 6000 simple reactions running, with 900 on silicate/evaporite pair, 400 additional on evaporite with something else and 600 on silicates with something else.
Even long-term, the need for each roughly doubles, as you can see... still, long-term, there should be well over 15k moons of each type available (probably closer to 18k of each) as a grand total. So it's not so much a question of being able to find the proper "mine and react directly" moons, but the ability to find AND EXPLOIT them in a reasonable timeframe... many more than needed in the long run, because the short-term spikes are horribly high.
I agree with this somewhat. Its an opportunity cost issue in my opinion. The more towers that get put up, the harder it is to get all the reactions towers also mining the necessary materials in the most efficient way. The more inefficient this becomes, the more people will rely on Jita for materials. In my mind there are clear thresholds for prices if people start going to Jita for materials (which they did not do much pre-Dominion except mostly to dump surplus on a saturated market). There certainly is no shortage of these moons though. But I think the days of picking up moon minerals for 35 isk per unit are probably over for the most part.
Short term, meh...we shall see.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Mantra Achura
Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2009.12.03 21:55:00 -
[415]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 30/11/2009 08:07:10 We are also uncertain about technetium moon counts, as there could be as little as 370 or (according to some people, not me) there could be as many as 800+ tech moons game-wide (with 370 being most likely a lot closer to the actual number than 800 or more). WHY ? Well, we only have about 230 technetium moons confirmed, with a vast majority of them (197, so a little over 85% of the confirmed ones) concentrated in six reasonably well scouted Guristas/Caldari regions only. Those six regions were not completely scouted (there could be about 20 more moons in there), and there are three Guristas regions that weren't scouted much at all, but there could be as little as just 90 extra technetium moons in those three regions, and let's say 30 more game-wide, for a grand total of about 370 technetium moons overall. Of course, the moon count could have been severely underreported, but there is no pertinent reason to assume the underreporting factor is THAT high - even an *1.5 correction would be pretty far-fetched in my opinion, let alone a *2.something as some people seem to imply would be "closer to reality".
Did anybody re-scan moons and could confirm changes on numbers of moon types? Are there any reports evil CCCP engineers added additional Tech moons inside the game?
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.03 22:08:00 -
[416]
Originally by: Mantra Achura Did anybody re-scan moons and could confirm changes on numbers of moon types? Are there any reports evil CCCP engineers added additional Tech moons inside the game?
A systematic re-scanning would take months if not years. If there are more Tech moons to be had, locals will find them first and then you will see the effect on the market.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.03 23:10:00 -
[417]
Edited by: Akita T on 03/12/2009 23:11:05
Originally by: Mantra Achura Are there any reports evil CCCP engineers added additional Tech moons inside the game?
If they would have bothered modifying moons, they could have dropped this whole change process and simply added more dysprosium/promethium somewhere instead. So no, I do not believe there are any NEW technetium moons. The only possibility would have been old technetium moons nobody scanned yet (or didn't want to make public).
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The Slagh
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Posted - 2009.12.03 23:56:00 -
[418]
Edited by: The Slagh on 03/12/2009 23:57:28
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 03/12/2009 23:11:05
Originally by: Mantra Achura Are there any reports evil CCCP engineers added additional Tech moons inside the game?
If they would have bothered modifying moons, they could have dropped this whole change process and simply added more dysprosium/promethium somewhere instead. So no, I do not believe there are any NEW technetium moons. The only possibility would have been old technetium moons nobody scanned yet (or didn't want to make public).
Nobody would withhold any Tech scans they did unless it was less than two months ago though.
Also everybody panic about Tech.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.04 00:16:00 -
[419]
Tech and Plat and all their products are crashing now, they're following Neo down into oblivion. We were wrong, so... so wrong...
At this point I think it would be best if we all tried to sell our stocks. In fact, because of our faulty advice, I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit. It's a lot more than you'll get by the end of the week, and you likely won't be able to offload much by then, just look how quickly Neo went south.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.04 00:36:00 -
[420]
Quote: Tech and Plat and all their products are crashing now, they're following Neo down into oblivion. We were wrong, so... so wrong...
At this point I think it would be best if we all tried to sell our stocks. In fact, because of our faulty advice, I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit. It's a lot more than you'll get by the end of the week, and you likely won't be able to offload much by then, just look how quickly Neo went south.
Damn decent of you..... damn decent. Btw it takes 3 nano reaction poses to keep a single component assembly array pumping out microprocessors.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.04 00:38:00 -
[421]
Edited by: Mahke on 04/12/2009 00:45:21
Originally by: Turiel Demon Tech and Plat and all their products are crashing now, they're following Neo down into oblivion. We were wrong, so... so wrong...
At this point I think it would be best if we all tried to sell our stocks. In fact, because of our faulty advice, I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit. It's a lot more than you'll get by the end of the week, and you likely won't be able to offload much by then, just look how quickly Neo went south.
You wish people sell to you in bulk @ 5k
I got mostly out before the patch to guarentee my profits because I can't log in very much over the next few weeks to actively manage (and because I wanted to shift from heavy neo, light tech to heavy tech, low neo, but tech was too high for me to feel safe buying it from sells, and my buys got .01'ed to point of not filling), but, if it goes that low I will sink 5+bil into it without hesitation.
edit: caveat, havent logged in to check markets for a day or two so everything I say atm, giant grain of salt
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.04 00:48:00 -
[422]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Tech and Plat and all their products are crashing now, they're following Neo down into oblivion. We were wrong, so... so wrong...
At this point I think it would be best if we all tried to sell our stocks. In fact, because of our faulty advice, I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit. It's a lot more than you'll get by the end of the week, and you likely won't be able to offload much by then, just look how quickly Neo went south.
You laugh now, you will cry later.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.04 01:47:00 -
[423]
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: Turiel Demon silliness concerning Tech
You laugh now, you will cry later.
What's wrong with you? You seem genuinely upset by Tech doing well, for most of us who got on early enough it is genuinely impossible to lose ISK on it now with how much stock-recycling has already been possible.
Will we be disappointed if the profits only total a few tens of billions rather than hundreds? Sure, but I don't think tears will be forthcoming
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.04 02:03:00 -
[424]
Originally by: Turiel Demon I feel it is only fair if Akita, me, and others involved in this massive market deception take responsibility, bite the bullet and offer to buy Tech from you at 5k/unit
Being the overly generous guy that I am, I will buy tech back from the pour souls at a whopping 7.5K.
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Juliette Leblanc
Gallente Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2009.12.04 02:58:00 -
[425]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I will buy tech back from the pour souls at a whopping 7.5K.
They would really be pouring it into your stock.
Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.04 07:13:00 -
[426]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: Turiel Demon silliness concerning Tech
You laugh now, you will cry later.
What's wrong with you? You seem genuinely upset by Tech doing well, for most of us who got on early enough it is genuinely impossible to lose ISK on it now with how much stock-recycling has already been possible.
Will we be disappointed if the profits only total a few tens of billions rather than hundreds? Sure, but I don't think tears will be forthcoming
What you talking about, I said it would be 10-15k.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.04 14:09:00 -
[427]
Technetium used to be the 3rd most valuable moon mineral before promethium/dysprosium spiked like hell roughly one year ago, then it became the 5th most valuable one... which means most 0.0 alliances would have been mining most of it and stockpiling large quantities for the past year or two.
Going from 60% usage with dysprosium as bottleneck to double the previous usage with it being the bottleneck certainly won't flip the prices instantly, since the stockpile is quite big - as soon as prices jump up a bit, enough people feel like liquidating some of their stocks, which keeps prices from going up more too fast. Almost the same reasoning for neodymium, just at a lower "intensity".
Right now, we are seeing insane T2 prices, which WON'T allow high consumption of moongoo. These high prices are due partially to the tech/neo derived components being already too high in price, while the prom/dysp ones nowhere down enough... and the dyspro/prom crash is a prerequisite for everything, and for that alone we'll have to wait a couple of weeks. Before we'll start seeing technetium at very high prices, we'll first be seeing T2 ships at insanely low prices, then slowly stabilizing. And we'll have to wait at least 2 months for that, maybe longer.
It could very well be half a year to 9 months before you see technetium at over 100k, and more than a year before it reaches insane prices. And all of that assuming CCP doesn't do anything about it before then, which they probably will. Still, 30k-50k per unit by February-March is nothing too unexpected.
_
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Dr Bernard
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Posted - 2009.12.04 20:52:00 -
[428]
Edited by: Dr Bernard on 04/12/2009 20:55:29 Nice report - there is a bug though, you have Tungsten Carbide using Chromium instead of Platinum. This means the raw material usage % changes with Plat 12.3% and Chro 9.07%.
I picked this up after my own analysis. My figures were largely in agreement except I saw a slight shift away from rarity 64's towards commons.
My figures were based on an estimate of all T2 ship sales in Jita during 1 day. No accounting for modules. I assume perfect production using mostly T2 bpos, 25% invention (as per Q2 e-blog?).
I was most interested in moon counts required to support the daily demand to see how much pressure exists on null-sec moons. Here are the results...
Moon count - (total empire) - material % - raw material
275- (xx) - 5.11%Atmospheric gases 870- (xx) - 16.17%Evaporite deposits 286- (xx) - 5.30%Hydrocarbons 880- (xx) - 16.36%Silicates 191- (1039) - 3.55%Cobalt 121- (264) - 2.25%Scandium 211- (418) - 3.92%Titanium 139- (277) - 2.58%Tungsten 262- (328) - 4.86%Cadmium 194- (166) - 3.59%Vanadium 506- (225) - 9.40%Chromium 645- (270) - 11.99%Platinum 48- (112) - 0.89%Caesium 231- (34) - 4.28%Technetium 73- (60) - 1.35%Hafnium 164- (35) - 3.04%Mercury 75- (9) - 1.39%Promethium 61- (14) - 1.13%Dysprosium 145- (28) - 2.69%Neodymium 9- (14) - 0.16%Thulium
Edited for formatting |
Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.04 21:49:00 -
[429]
Originally by: Dr Bernard Edited by: Dr Bernard on 04/12/2009 21:23:58 Edited by: Dr Bernard on 04/12/2009 20:55:29 Nice report - there is a bug though, you have Tungsten Carbide using Chromium instead of Platinum. This means the raw material usage % changes with Plat 12.3% and Chro 9.07%.
Edit: my mistake you already corrected this - I didn't read the whole thread yet
I picked this up after my own analysis. My figures were largely in agreement except I saw a slight shift away from rarity 64's towards commons.
My figures were based on an estimate of all T2 ship sales in Jita during 1 day. No accounting for modules. I assume perfect production using mostly T2 bpos, 25% invention (as per Q2 e-blog?).
I was most interested in moon counts required to support the daily demand to see how much pressure exists on null-sec moons. Here are the results...
Moon count - (total empire) - material % - raw material
275- (xx) - 5.11%Atmospheric gases 870- (xx) - 16.17%Evaporite deposits 286- (xx) - 5.30%Hydrocarbons 880- (xx) - 16.36%Silicates 191- (1039) - 3.55%Cobalt 121- (264) - 2.25%Scandium 211- (418) - 3.92%Titanium 139- (277) - 2.58%Tungsten 262- (328) - 4.86%Cadmium 194- (166) - 3.59%Vanadium 506- (225) - 9.40%Chromium 645- (270) - 11.99%Platinum 48- (112) - 0.89%Caesium 231- (34) - 4.28%Technetium 73- (60) - 1.35%Hafnium 164- (35) - 3.04%Mercury 75- (9) - 1.39%Promethium 61- (14) - 1.13%Dysprosium 145- (28) - 2.69%Neodymium 9- (14) - 0.16%Thulium
Edited for formatting
Why not just use Dotlan?
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Dr Bernard
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Posted - 2009.12.04 21:55:00 -
[430]
I used Dotlan for the empire moon counts. The numbers here are estimates of the build requirement of all T2 ships in Jita on 1 day. Dotlan cannot provide this. My point was to validate all the data that Akita T has provided.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.04 22:59:00 -
[431]
Edited by: Tesal on 04/12/2009 23:00:55
Originally by: Dr Bernard I used Dotlan for the empire moon counts. The numbers here are estimates of the build requirement of all T2 ships in Jita on 1 day. Dotlan cannot provide this. My point was to validate all the data that Akita T has provided.
Empire moon counts are a smaller part of the pie, especially for low ends in determining the total value of a market. In 0.0 you can get an ice bonus with Sov which buffs R4, R8 and R16 a somewhat I understand. A significant portion of reactions are also done in 0.0. Plugging in empire moons really doesn't give you a full picture. If we had certainty on this, there would not be speculation and volatility would be greatly reduced. *On moon count demand and supply that is*
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Kalrand
Charles Ponzi School of Business GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:06:00 -
[432]
Originally by: Tesal Edited by: Tesal on 04/12/2009 23:00:55
Originally by: Dr Bernard I used Dotlan for the empire moon counts. The numbers here are estimates of the build requirement of all T2 ships in Jita on 1 day. Dotlan cannot provide this. My point was to validate all the data that Akita T has provided.
Empire moon counts are a smaller part of the pie, especially for low ends in determining the total value of a market. In 0.0 you can get an ice bonus with Sov which buffs R4, R8 and R16 a somewhat I understand. A significant portion of reactions are also done in 0.0. Plugging in empire moons really doesn't give you a full picture. If we had certainty on this, there would not be speculation and volatility would be greatly reduced. *On moon count demand and supply that is*
R4's and R8's are rarely profitable to mine alone. Many R16s aren't. Until recently some R64's weren't.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:10:00 -
[433]
Originally by: Kalrand R4's and R8's are rarely profitable to mine alone. Many R16s aren't. Until recently some R64's weren't.
Thulium still isn't, and won't be, as its usage was lowered (as if it wouldn't have been low enough already).
_
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:41:00 -
[434]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Kalrand R4's and R8's are rarely profitable to mine alone. Many R16s aren't. Until recently some R64's weren't.
Thulium still isn't, and won't be, as its usage was lowered (as if it wouldn't have been low enough already).
Out of curiosity, was the thulium price prior to the pre-dominion chaos reflecting of use versus effort mining/supply or purely set by people stockpiling massive quantities in the hope that maybe someday somehow it would get used more.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:42:00 -
[435]
Thulium was traded in very small amounts, price was erratic, and prior to the first announcements on Dominion it barely ever broke past 2000 per unit.
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Kalrand
Charles Ponzi School of Business GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.04 23:49:00 -
[436]
I think Thulium is still in the ~1600 range. Which is profitable to mine.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.05 02:02:00 -
[437]
Originally by: Kalrand I think Thulium is still in the ~1600 range. Which is profitable to mine.
Yeah, but not very profitable... roughly 115 mil/month minus POS fuel costs, on top of the initial structure cost and risks to get attacked, not really that great.
_
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.05 02:03:00 -
[438]
Never mind the fact that it'll be down to 1000/unit again within a month, probably lower.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.07 16:15:00 -
[439]
Question: Why is titanium carbide moving faster than the other 3 races of plates?
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Jalum Krayal
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Posted - 2009.12.07 18:28:00 -
[440]
Originally by: BlondieBC Question: Why is titanium carbide moving faster than the other 3 races of plates?
My guess: Titanium Diborite is the Caldari racial plate, and so more demand to build Golems than the other Marauders, for instance.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.08 01:16:00 -
[441]
You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2009.12.08 02:44:00 -
[442]
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
So when do you post your "how i did it" thread?
SKUNK (o)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.08 03:23:00 -
[443]
Originally by: Le Skunk So when do you post your "how i did it" thread?
Well, the prerequisite would be having done it first, no ?
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.08 05:45:00 -
[444]
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
Its not as high as I'd like it to be, but even now its still at 4x the price it was when I cleaned out Jita after reading that devblog.
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Count MonteCarlo
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.12.08 08:25:00 -
[445]
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
He also bought Thulium so my guess is that he got very limited information from CCP which most likely implied that the other r64's were getting boosted while the others nerfed, or something like that
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel.
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Posted - 2009.12.08 08:56:00 -
[446]
Originally by: BlondieBC Question: Why is titanium carbide moving faster than the other 3 races of plates?
I didn't want to do this but...
BECAUSE OF FALCON.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.08 09:38:00 -
[447]
Originally by: Count MonteCarlo
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
He also bought Thulium so my guess is that he got very limited information from CCP which most likely implied that the other r64's were getting boosted while the others nerfed, or something like that
To be fair, even simply hearing "Neodymium is getting buffed" would be (and was!) enough to get me to buy Thulium, just on the logically sound hedge that if you're going to buff one nigh worthless R64, you'd buff another.
In hindsight, I should have had on my "think like CCP" hat, but hey. At least I still sold it at a not-loss.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.09 17:37:00 -
[448]
Well... it's been quite a day for Tech and Neo both so far, wonder if plat will spike too
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SunGod RA
Endless Destruction
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Posted - 2009.12.09 21:28:00 -
[449]
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
'tis funny, but not as funny as those who panic-sold below 10k =P _
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.09 23:00:00 -
[450]
Originally by: SunGod RA
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
'tis funny, but not as funny as those who panic-sold below 10k =P
I'm not complaining :) Im making a killing off them.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.10 01:32:00 -
[451]
Edited by: Mahke on 10/12/2009 01:37:40 Edited by: Mahke on 10/12/2009 01:36:56 bah, haven't been paying attention to moon mineral market last few days, missed neo dropping as insanely low as it did before the spike .
Having just checked, poured a couple billion into fullerides as with new tech prices they are, again, trading at about reaction cost assuming towers take no fuel (lol).
edit: in for a penny, in for a pound I suppose. Sunk another 800mil in. Now someone reacting fullerides can get 10 isk or so per unit assuming free fuel, lol.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.11 00:05:00 -
[452]
Hmm, looks like the SHC thread http://www.scrapheap-challenge.com/viewtopic.php?t=30887&postorder=desc (Linkage) is so much more lively than this one
_
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Misaki Yuuko
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Posted - 2009.12.11 00:19:00 -
[453]
Hai, I missed this and didn't have much liquid when it all started, however as I've stopped producing recentlly and I've all my slots free would like to know if I can profit in someway building T2 components nonstop and selling them either in 1-3 months time or on short term if there is a large gap between the stock of advanced reactions & components due to rampage manipulation and volatile market. Any suggestion without having to learn all the details?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.11 01:11:00 -
[454]
Originally by: Misaki Yuuko Any suggestion without having to learn all the details?
It changes from day to day, so in your particular case, I would advise SHORT batches for high turnover, while there's still some heavy price discrepancy between components and finished products... and you'll have to do the math every time again on each batch you start.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.11 01:21:00 -
[455]
Quote: Hmm, looks like the SHC thread http://www.scrapheap-challenge.com/viewtopic.php?t=30887&postorder=desc (Linkage) is so much more lively than this one Laughing
Warning Re: signal to noise ratio on this one - also postorder=desc made me think I was looking my mind.
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Count MonteCarlo
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.12.11 08:57:00 -
[456]
Originally by: EvilCheez
Warning Re: signal to noise ratio on this one - also postorder=desc made me think I was loosing my mind. They are very enthusiastic.
It's still fun though, a large portion of the people in that thread has never done anything like this before
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.11 09:30:00 -
[457]
Yeesh, Neo is flip flopping more than a....uhh...hot cheerleader on a beach with flip flops on?
I'm terrible at clever comparisons.
5m to the first one that makes me laugh.
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Ronaldo Carrare
RR Financial Services
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Posted - 2009.12.11 10:41:00 -
[458]
Originally by: Akita T Hmm, looks like the SHC thread http://www.scrapheap-challenge.com/viewtopic.php?t=30887&postorder=desc (Linkage) is so much more lively than this one
You have to thank Turiel for this, he's attracted a lot of people into this. Watch out MD Elite, SHC is coming after you.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.11 10:49:00 -
[459]
Originally by: Ronaldo Carrare
Originally by: Akita T Hmm, looks like the SHC thread http://www.scrapheap-challenge.com/viewtopic.php?t=30887&postorder=desc (Linkage) is so much more lively than this one
You have to thank Turiel for this, he's attracted a lot of people into this. Watch out MD Elite, SHC is coming after you.
Be very afraid... the first step is the SHC Technetium Cartel, then comes SHCBank, and then... the world!
you'll have an easier time reading that thread like this if interested, dunno how you managed to get descending post order
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.13 11:37:00 -
[460]
Now the question is, why doesn't somebody bloody educate the guys up north already as to how much Technetium will be worth eventually so they stop freakin' selling it for a pittance right now ?
It's not _that_ hard, really, just "lowest sell order at 100k/unit and no more questions"...
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
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Ronaldo Carrare
RR Financial Services
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Posted - 2009.12.13 11:50:00 -
[461]
I've entered the market when Tech was 20k(just resubbed) and I have to say I agree with what you say. The last 2-3 days have been terrible.
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Skarii TuThess
Lansez Innovations
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Posted - 2009.12.13 11:51:00 -
[462]
Originally by: Akita T Now the question is, why doesn't somebody bloody educate the guys up north already as to how much Technetium will be worth eventually so they stop freakin' selling it for a pittance right now ?
It's not _that_ hard, really, just "lowest sell order at 100k/unit and no more questions"...
This is the problem with predicting people's behaviour ;)
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.13 13:11:00 -
[463]
There is not many nanotransistors left to buy this side of 5k, but when people notice they've gone up 35% in 48 hours that may very well change.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2009.12.13 16:12:00 -
[464]
Originally by: corestwo
Originally by: Akita T You know what's really funny in retrospect ? That guy who got kicked out of the CSM because he bought neodymium as "CCP insider tip". Look at neodymium now
Its not as high as I'd like it to be
Then why are you trying so hard to depress the price? Want more? Not a whine (I got out of neo a while back) just confused by the mixed messages.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries The AsyIum
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Posted - 2009.12.13 21:23:00 -
[465]
Originally by: Akita T Now the question is, why doesn't somebody bloody educate the guys up north already as to how much Technetium will be worth eventually so they stop freakin' selling it for a pittance right now ?
It's not _that_ hard, really, just "lowest sell order at 100k/unit and no more questions"...
With Nanotransistors rising like they are now Tech really can't stay behind very long. Reacting them now is at something like 300% profit; Tech + Neo + Plat should be at least 120K put together to sustain the nanotrans price level at 4k, and demand dictates that nanotrans won't be dropping... Tech pretty much has to come up.
Nevertheless, it won't hurt to spread the Gospel of Technetius to the unwashed hordes of the North, I'll see what I can do...
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.13 21:49:00 -
[466]
Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 13/12/2009 21:49:32 when prices are set to increase by many, many times their previous value the change always takes a while. People see item X selling for 10x what it used to sell for and they j*zz their pants, sell it and don't ask questions. Eventually, though, word gets 'round and prices go up to meet the actual demand.
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Lieutenant Obvious
Thundercats RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.14 04:06:00 -
[467]
Originally by: Akita T Now the question is, why doesn't somebody bloody educate the guys up north already as to how much Technetium will be worth eventually so they stop freakin' selling it for a pittance right now ?
It's not _that_ hard, really, just "lowest sell order at 100k/unit and no more questions"...
I've been trying. Unfortunately those who hold the purses don't care that much as long as they get constant cash.
"There's no such thing as opportunity cost" :(
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2009.12.14 08:41:00 -
[468]
Market trivia for the history books: Technetium is now more expensive than Promethium, and should pass Dysprosium in a couple of days. ----------------------------------------
Buy / sell Jidsale shares here |
Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.14 16:24:00 -
[469]
Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious "There's no such thing as opportunity cost" :(
They actually said that to you?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.14 16:33:00 -
[470]
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.14 21:32:00 -
[471]
Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious "There's no such thing as opportunity cost" :(
They actually said that to you?
I have a decades experience in financial analysis in RL, and i can assure you many people believe that in real life. So why should eve be different?
Just hold on to the material and sell in a few months, or if have cash, buy more stock and help drive the price to the "correct" level. Just be real sure your "correct" level is correct.
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Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2009.12.14 21:50:00 -
[472]
Originally by: BlondieBC
Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious "There's no such thing as opportunity cost" :(
They actually said that to you?
I have a decades experience in financial analysis in RL, and i can assure you many people believe that in real life. So why should eve be different?
Just hold on to the material and sell in a few months, or if have cash, buy more stock and help drive the price to the "correct" level. Just be real sure your "correct" level is correct.
So, to get this right:
We have this huge nerd game where a lot of people suck in math and economics.
And we have a real world, with a quite lower rate of nerds, and they also suck at math and economics. If not even more.
shocking.
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Jovialmadness
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Posted - 2009.12.14 21:55:00 -
[473]
Edited by: Jovialmadness on 14/12/2009 21:55:18 Yea but one thing you neglected to state was that atleast in the real world, where I agree we all suck at math, we can simply create cash out of thin air. That way our crappy math skills aren't as relevant as they are ingame |
BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.14 23:27:00 -
[474]
Originally by: Jovialmadness Edited by: Jovialmadness on 14/12/2009 21:55:18 Yea but one thing you neglected to state was that atleast in the real world, where I agree we all suck at math, we can simply create cash out of thin air. That way our crappy math skills aren't as relevant as they are ingame
Only the rich, uber elite can print cash.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.14 23:43:00 -
[475]
I believe the rise in low end moon metals has been understated.
Assumptions:
1) Sov changes will mean that the marginal moon mining POS is in 0.0, and the owners will need to make a profit.
2) Jump Freighters are used to move the goods to empire. JF cost around 4 bills.
3) I assume that to justify using a 4 billion isk ship, we need to charge the POS operation 100 million per month. I also assume that 200 million is the minimum needed. A POS cost 50 million per month in fuel to run.
Therefore, the marginal owner needs 350m per month is gross revenue. This translates to 4800 per unit selling price.
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URSODMB
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Posted - 2009.12.15 00:51:00 -
[476]
So lots of tech moons are switching hands lately from nc to tri/co2 etc etc......c'mon guys go make a cartel and drive that price up allready!
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.15 01:54:00 -
[477]
Edited by: Tiberizzle on 15/12/2009 01:55:27
Originally by: BlondieBC I believe the rise in low end moon metals has been understated.
Assumptions:
1) Sov changes will mean that the marginal moon mining POS is in 0.0, and the owners will need to make a profit.
2) Jump Freighters are used to move the goods to empire. JF cost around 4 bills.
3) I assume that to justify using a 4 billion isk ship, we need to charge the POS operation 100 million per month. I also assume that 200 million is the minimum needed. A POS cost 50 million per month in fuel to run.
Therefore, the marginal owner needs 350m per month is gross revenue. This translates to 4800 per unit selling price.
So what you're saying is that if we assume production costs are arbitrarily higher than in the past, then we can conclude they are undervalued? Excellent deduction, I am buying Jita out of R8 as we speak!!11
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.12.15 03:03:00 -
[478]
Originally by: Tiberizzle So what you're saying is that if we assume production costs are arbitrarily higher than in the past, then we can conclude they are undervalued? Excellent deduction, I am buying Jita out of R8 as we speak!!11
I don't think that the production cost itself is higher now than in the past. What differs from the past is POS is now decoupled from SOV that no alliance is mining moon goo @ loss. That leads R8 and even R4's value to become slightly over small POS's fuel cost, whether CCP has intended this or not from dominion. So the seemingly increased production cost is actually from alliances refusing to lose anymore.
Well, you know that, I know that, everyone knows that...
Just one thing I'd like to add is, buying R8 and R4 would not dent hard on your wallet although I doubt anyone w/ sane mentality would still look for Tech/Neo...
Plus, Producing Carbide/Carbonide will make you happy for a while ... perhaps even decent while in the future. B4 Dominion, producing two batches of carbides w/ two large towers + 2 x R4, 1 x R8 nets you at least around 300m.
Now it jumps up to what, a bit less than 1bn?
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.15 03:29:00 -
[479]
Originally by: xylopia
Originally by: Tiberizzle So what you're saying is that if we assume production costs are arbitrarily higher than in the past, then we can conclude they are undervalued? Excellent deduction, I am buying Jita out of R8 as we speak!!11
I don't think that the production cost itself is higher now than in the past. What differs from the past is POS is now decoupled from SOV that no alliance is mining moon goo @ loss. That leads R8 and even R4's value to become slightly over small POS's fuel cost, whether CCP has intended this or not from dominion. So the seemingly increased production cost is actually from alliances refusing to lose anymore.
Well, you know that, I know that, everyone knows that...
Just one thing I'd like to add is, buying R8 and R4 would not dent hard on your wallet although I doubt anyone w/ sane mentality would still look for Tech/Neo...
Plus, Producing Carbide/Carbonide will make you happy for a while ... perhaps even decent while in the future. B4 Dominion, producing two batches of carbides w/ two large towers + 2 x R4, 1 x R8 nets you at least around 300m.
Now it jumps up to what, a bit less than 1bn?
It wasn't really the implied direction of the trend I took issue with, so much as the fact that he pulled some unjustifiable numbers straight from his ass and then derived an estimate of cost from them. "Some mining towers will effectively cost more now that they are not dual purposed for sov, and so I think low rarity moon goo is going to see an increase in value" would have been a valid statement that didn't bury its point in arbitrary figures.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.15 04:03:00 -
[480]
Originally by: URSODMB So lots of tech moons are switching hands lately from nc to tri/co2 etc etc......c'mon guys go make a cartel and drive that price up allready!
At the risk of being contrarian, there are too many moons to make a cartel. They are not like Dyspro, there are more of them. I personally don't believe the moon numbers in this thread either. I think they are low. We will see in the next few weeks how demand hits.
Also, current T2 prices make Strategic Cruisers a viable alternative on the high end of the scale to HACS for example and other ships. So unlike in the past, T2 prices can only go so high before T3 begins to cut in. A 250m HAC is impossible pretty much, a 150m HAC makes people think a bit about T3, in the 100m range people will go T2 without thinking about it. This places a strong limiting factor on T2. This could cut the head off the high end market entirely.
I also think other moons are starting to pull into equilibrium with the market. We should start to see fairly soon a few of them showing a sustainable price.
So this begs the question, what happens if none of the high ends reach 100% usage? It could happen depending on T2 demand. But meh...what do I know, I might be trying to talk tech down. I am telling the truth, but if you want to know for yourself, do your own analysis. My bet is still in the 10-15k range long term. Could be wrong.
I have a new game. Find the bottleneck.
Merry X-mas.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.12.15 04:23:00 -
[481]
Originally by: Tesal stuff
You, sir, have been making statement-like posts saying ppl lost their mind over few pretty pictures.
I don't mind it's Akita's poor play to fool the whole public or your genuine interest to prevent ppl crying over losing their hard earned iskies. Just show me some f****** solid number I can convince my rather-not-that-smart self with.
Otherwise, what you say every now and then means as vague as you humanly possibly can to me.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.15 05:29:00 -
[482]
Originally by: Tiberizzle Edited by: Tiberizzle on 15/12/2009 01:55:27
So what you're saying is that if we assume production costs are arbitrarily higher than in the past, then we can conclude they are undervalued? Excellent deduction, I am buying Jita out of R8 as we speak!!11
I am stating that with sov delinked from POS, moon goo operations need to turn and operating profit. I was trying to estimate what the price would be with a "reasonable" profit.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.15 07:53:00 -
[483]
Originally by: Tesal Also, current T2 prices make Strategic Cruisers a viable alternative on the high end of the scale to HACS for example and other ships. So unlike in the past, T2 prices can only go so high before T3 begins to cut in. A 250m HAC is impossible pretty much, a 150m HAC makes people think a bit about T3, in the 100m range people will go T2 without thinking about it. This places a strong limiting factor on T2. This could cut the head off the high end market entirely.
You are forgetting about Marauders (increasingly popular) and Jump Freighters (which should see even more usage in the coming times), which have absolutely no equivalent whatsoever. "Coincidentally", they're also quite big moon mineral consumers. T2 prices won't go up that much, and I even made a point of stating that for equilibrium price calculation of moon minerals I've actually assumed (in one version, anyway) that T2 ship prices would be more or less similar to what we saw before the SiSi Dominion changes. I did discuss it further too, and I will do so shortly again - but for the time being, let's just say T2 ship prices (LONG TERM) will NOT jump to anywhere close to double nor half of what they used to be. Short term however, as you can already notice, the prices have spiked, but it's a temporary situation which will eventually be remedied.
Quote: I also think other moons are starting to pull into equilibrium with the market. We should start to see fairly soon a few of them showing a sustainable price.
"Starting" is the operative and correct word. Dysprosium and promethium still have a lot of room to fall, and all corresponding T2 components too. I fully expect to see both below 10k per unit in a few months, and all related components also down in price significantly. T2 ship prices can't possibly come down before that happens - and it WILL happen, it's only a matter of "when".
Quote: So this begs the question, what happens if none of the high ends reach 100% usage?
That is, to put it in one single word, IMPOSSIBLE. Not just practically impossible, but also theoretically impossible, given the ever-increasing player population and increasing need for certain types of T2 ships that have no feasible replacement option.
By my calculations, technetium will reach (actually, go above, for a while, as past stockipes last) 100% usage eventually. If my assumptions of technetium moon counts were way too pessimistic (extremely doubtful given long-time-past technetium market price), then it would be neodymium that will reach 100% usage instead. Depending on which one it actually is, T2 ship prices might stabilize higher (if it's technetium) or lower (if it's neodymium).
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.15 08:12:00 -
[484]
Originally by: xylopia
Originally by: Tesal stuff
You, sir, have been making statement-like posts saying ppl lost their mind over few pretty pictures.
I don't mind it's Akita's poor play to fool the whole public or your genuine interest to prevent ppl crying over losing their hard earned iskies. Just show me some f****** solid number I can convince my rather-not-that-smart self with.
Otherwise, what you say every now and then means as vague as you humanly possibly can to me.
Akita and I use different trade styles. I use more of a risk based style as I usually trade it stuff that varies widely for any number of reasons, usually based as much on market psychology as raw numbers. I also play the markets similarly to a hand of cards, you need to know your outs every hand or you will not know how to bet, and should not use emotion to make your market decisions.
But for facts, check the T2 volumes on the market right now, it is not all time high volume. Check command ship and HAC prices and compare them to T3, they are closer than they have ever been. Its a simple proposition really, and a new one not seen before, T3 is affordable enough to compete with high end T2 uses. So instead of past experience where moons were the primary factor, now it must also be balanced against this new situation as well. This makes a much more unpredictable situation, where it is unknown how many people are willing to pay the price difference. You will also see that T2 is down across the board practically, probably people responding to the price shock, so there is clearly a response to price. Its not a number, its a principle of the market. This is not a certainty, its a risk factor and an unknown which you need to find a way to explain and calculate.
Also, there is a way to check moons. Just take a sample of what you know for certain, come up with an average per region, and project it over remaining regions. If your sample is big enough, you will get an answer that is accurate. You can also look at the typical amounts CCP puts into R64, R32 and so on per region, and come up with a baseline average or guestimate. Depending on the data sets you use, and how you calculate it, you get more moons than what is projected here most of the time. Some project as many as 850 tech moons. You then need to decide if these numbers are partially correct, or completely wrong and why. You can average several techniques as a way of eliminating error. Akita is using a number that is far too conservative in my estimation.
My prediction for tech is based on the type, volume and character of the underlying orders, past experience and the weaknesses or strengths I feel exist in the market. Unlike some, I often trade more off these basic facts and a gut reaction to how they all fit together and in what proportion. This has made me plenty of isk, and I rarely lose isk, and for me is faster and easier than dealing with an exhaustive fact finding effort, where key facts are typically unknown.
Take this basic fact for example. The Dysprosium spike when Dyspro first shot towards 100k. Similar things were said back then as now about Tech. And yet, Tech is behaving unlike Dyspro did. I would expect them to have more in common if the one was essentially replacing the other. This should give you pause, and a reason to try to figure out what is going on to explain the curve. That story will tell you what might happen, and also give you precedents to compare.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Tesal
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Posted - 2009.12.15 08:33:00 -
[485]
Originally by: Akita T
You are forgetting about Marauders (increasingly popular) and Jump Freighters (which should see even more usage in the coming times), which have absolutely no equivalent whatsoever. "Coincidentally", they're also quite big moon mineral consumers.
I am forgetting nothing. Go to Jita and open the market curve and look at the volume for major ships and the cost curve. Its a bit thin these days. Jump freighters are not really being sold in higher volume when they were before, neither are marauders. They look a bit thinner to me, a bit down.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.15 08:47:00 -
[486]
Originally by: Tesal
Quote: IMPOSSIBLE
Actually, no its not, unlikely perhaps, but not impossible. It is a principle of the market, and is a proportional issue rather than an absolute. If you view the high ends as pressure and proportions, and not a certainty, you imagine them differently, and get different ideas on how they might behave.
You forgot to include the rest of the quote that was relevant, the very next phrase. There are things that use up moon minerals that have no reasonable substitute, which also take a lot of time to train for, and which should see a steady increase in popularity. In order to see a case where NONE of the moon minerals gets used up at 100%, you would need to have a situation where the overall consumption for T2 drops heavily, in spite of the fact more and more people join EVE all the time, and much more start using T2 on a more or less regular basis. Even if for a very short while "backlogged" stockpiles of materials and temporary attractive replacements for some T2 ships might exist, in the long run, you always end up with something being used up at 100%.
Originally by: Tesal Take this basic fact for example. The Dysprosium spike when Dyspro first shot towards 100k. Similar things were said back then as now about Tech. And yet, Tech is behaving unlike Dyspro did. I would expect them to have more in common if the one was essentially replacing the other. This should give you pause, and a reason to try to figure out what is going on to explain the curve. That story will tell you what might happen, and also give you precedents to compare.
Why, OF COURSE, Technetium WON'T act up the same way Dysprosium did.
Before invention (when was that, nearly 3 years ago, I think), moon mineral demand was low as heck, and most POSes didn't even bother mining anything but the most valuable moon minerals if they were too far away from the market hubs. It was only a while after invention came in (after the datacore RP cost adjustments and massive conversion to RP-farming) that the demand for moon minerals increased radically (alongside material prices, and eventually T2 ship prices), making most people plop harvesters on many moons that were (before invention) practically worthless. From that point onward, the REAL stockpiling began in earnest, even if demand wasn't THAT high. But eventually, Marauders, Black Ops and also JFs were introduced, and out of all, Marauders affected the moon mineral market the most. Dysprosium (and to a lesser degree promethum) were already bottlenecks, but like dysprosium now, not quite that scarce yet due to stockpiles... still, the stockpiles of dysprosium WERE the smallest (compared to the need), so as those stockpiles started draining, price kept on climbing... and then promethium soon followed suit. STILL, there was this minor issue of the fact slowly, the guys who found an exploit were inadvertently pushing the dysprosium and promethium price down, as at their peak "exploiting potential" they were supplying materials which were roughly 50% of the natural dyspro/prom production, and those additional materials which actually entered the market skewed the stockpile-vs-production ratios enough for prices to keep being "weird" a long time after the exploit was eradicated.
Now, on the flipside, you have technetium now. The technetium stockpiles are by far NOT the scarcest ones around (like it was the case with dysprosium), technetium is relatively localized (region-wise) as opposed to the completely-spread-out dysprosium, so those stockpiles are concentrated in far less hands which want to cash them in as fast as possible, which keeps the prices from exploding upwards.
So no, I don't buy your argument that any discrepancies between the evolution of Dysprosium in the past and Technetium nowadays is proof of anything fishy with any of the numbers vehiculated in this thread.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.15 08:53:00 -
[487]
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: Akita T You are forgetting about Marauders (increasingly popular) and Jump Freighters (which should see even more usage in the coming times), which have absolutely no equivalent whatsoever. "Coincidentally", they're also quite big moon mineral consumers.
I am forgetting nothing. Go to Jita and open the market curve and look at the volume for major ships and the cost curve. Its a bit thin these days. Jump freighters are not really being sold in higher volume when they were before, neither are marauders. They look a bit thinner to me, a bit down.
Look at everything else and tell me those aren't much thinner. Right now everything is in a state of flux, buyers are holding back from purchasing while they still hope prices will go back down, manufacturers are holding back from making more because they don't want to end up selling at a loss, and the general population is very much wondering what the heck is going on, since very few of them read (let alone fully understand) the relevant subforums. These sort of things need time (months, not days) to settle down. I would be very much surprised to see any degree of stability before February.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.15 09:11:00 -
[488]
Fulleride price is now roughly what it should be; I've sold most (but not all) of my stocks because I don't expect more short-term movement.
Reinvested that isk and then some into neo, with a litte in mercury, and a tech buy order (not because I want to hold tech, but as a general piece of insurance for holding neo).
I'm not going to explain myself on this one. Look at the prices and components of the complex and simple moon products and the reasoning becomes instantly apparent.
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Lieutenant Obvious
Thundercats RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.15 11:34:00 -
[489]
Look, it's simple.
Go get your friendly neighbourhood powerblock and make them come up north to pew pew us and try to take our moons and shoot down our freighters/JFs (hell we lost like 7 of them first day of dominion in 5 minutes).
I win both ways, getting a fight without having to JC or travel and making an insane amount of isk at the same time as technetium slows to market.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.12.15 11:36:00 -
[490]
Originally by: Tesal Akita and I use different trade styles. I use more of a risk based style as I usually trade it stuff that varies widely for any number of reasons, usually based as much on market psychology as raw numbers. I also play the markets similarly to a hand of cards, you need to know your outs every hand or you will not know how to bet, and should not use emotion to make your market decisions.
...
My prediction for tech is based on the type, volume and character of the underlying orders, past experience and the weaknesses or strengths I feel exist in the market. Unlike some, I often trade more off these basic facts and a gut reaction to how they all fit together and in what proportion. This has made me plenty of isk, and I rarely lose isk, and for me is faster and easier than dealing with an exhaustive fact finding effort, where key facts are typically unknown.
You are supremely gifted with an ability to derail from main subject. I did not ask your melancholy feeling about numbers. I say I want cold, hard numbers up in my face. I must be rabbling Gibberish of some sort...
Originally by: Tesal Also, there is a way to check moons. Just take a sample of what you know for certain, come up with an average per region, and project it over remaining regions. If your sample is big enough, you will get an answer that is accurate. You can also look at the typical amounts CCP puts into R64, R32 and so on per region, and come up with a baseline average or guestimate. Depending on the data sets you use, and how you calculate it, you get more moons than what is projected here most of the time. Some project as many as 850 tech moons. You then need to decide if these numbers are partially correct, or completely wrong and why. You can average several techniques as a way of eliminating error. Akita is using a number that is far too conservative in my estimation.
This indicates me that you are not a person who has actually fired moon probes at all. Regions belong to different factions contains different moon make-up.
Originally by: Tesal Take this basic fact for example. The Dysprosium spike when Dyspro first shot towards 100k. Similar things were said back then as now about Tech. And yet, Tech is behaving unlike Dyspro did. I would expect them to have more in common if the one was essentially replacing the other. This should give you pause, and a reason to try to figure out what is going on to explain the curve. That story will tell you what might happen, and also give you precedents to compare.
I started disregarding those R- prefix on moons after I actually crunched total number of moons from DOT-LAN. Bottom line is, whatever that used up 100% will be the king of the hill. I am asking based on what cold, hard evidence/numbers/proof that tech/neo would not be used up 100%. If you have hard time to prove it, can I take that as you are in general agreeing w/ figures in this thread?
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.12.15 11:48:00 -
[491]
Edited by: xylopia on 15/12/2009 11:49:09
Originally by: Tesal But for facts, check the T2 volumes on the market right now, it is not all time high volume. Check command ship and HAC prices and compare them to T3, they are closer than they have ever been. Its a simple proposition really, and a new one not seen before, T3 is affordable enough to compete with high end T2 uses. So instead of past experience where moons were the primary factor, now it must also be balanced against this new situation as well. This makes a much more unpredictable situation, where it is unknown how many people are willing to pay the price difference. You will also see that T2 is down across the board practically, probably people responding to the price shock, so there is clearly a response to price. Its not a number, its a principle of the market. This is not a certainty, its a risk factor and an unknown which you need to find a way to explain and calculate.
I don't see how a T3 cruiser could perform what a command ship could do and vice versa. T2 HAC performs different role in combat than T3 does. There are stuffs that T3 couldn't even able to handle at all. Just what are you trying to get me here? If you really want to make a proposition soley based on price tag, please do include faction/pirate ships as well.
Even then, I don't see how T3/Pirate/Facton ship could take on T2 ship's market demand. Maybe it's time for one of us to go way back to the very first EVE tutorial?
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Lieutenant Obvious
Thundercats RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.15 12:11:00 -
[492]
A T3 can make a decent CS.
But Tesal's prices are off anyway, general market cost of the hull alone may be what he has stated, but then to even get it put together there's 5 subsystems that need to be purchased (and the non-**** ones aren't throw-away cheap).
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries The AsyIum
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Posted - 2009.12.15 12:12:00 -
[493]
Originally by: Tesal
Also, there is a way to check moons. Just take a sample of what you know for certain, come up with an average per region, and project it over remaining regions. If your sample is big enough, you will get an answer that is accurate. You can also look at the typical amounts CCP puts into R64, R32 and so on per region, and come up with a baseline average or guestimate. Depending on the data sets you use, and how you calculate it, you get more moons than what is projected here most of the time. Some project as many as 850 tech moons. You then need to decide if these numbers are partially correct, or completely wrong and why. You can average several techniques as a way of eliminating error. Akita is using a number that is far too conservative in my estimation.
The moon counts are significantly lower than under-reporting statistics from for instance the dotlan numbers suggest. Yes, theoretically there's a possibility of there being over 800... until you go talking to the relevant space-holders to find out the numbers. Tech interestingly only has a very low under-reporting rate on Dotlan, for instance Geminate with its 13 reported moons has 16 actual moons - fade with its 6 reported moons has just 9.
Akita came to an expected Tech moon count of ~350 iirc, my current estimate is somewhere between 320 and 400 depending on the Drone Region tech moon counts that I haven't gone after yet... either way even Neo doesn't come close to getting the bottleneck shifted to it, let alone the other highends.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.15 13:17:00 -
[494]
Edited by: Akita T on 15/12/2009 13:21:18
Originally by: Turiel Demon Akita came to an expected Tech moon count of ~350 iirc, my current estimate is somewhere between 320 and 400 depending on the Drone Region tech moon counts that I haven't gone after yet... either way even Neo doesn't come close to getting the bottleneck shifted to it, let alone the other highends.
Close
Originally by: Akita T on 30/11/2009 08:07:10
[...] We are also uncertain about technetium moon counts, as there could be as little as 370 or (according to some people, not me) there could be as many as 800+ tech moons game-wide (with 370 being most likely a lot closer to the actual number than 800 or more). WHY ? Well, we only have about 230 technetium moons confirmed, with a vast majority of them (197, so a little over 85% of the confirmed ones) concentrated in six reasonably well scouted Guristas/Caldari regions only. Those six regions were not completely scouted (there could be about 20 more moons in there), and there are three Guristas regions that weren't scouted much at all, but there could be as little as just 90 extra technetium moons in those three regions, and let's say 30 more game-wide, for a grand total of about 370 technetium moons overall. Of course, the moon count could have been severely underreported, but there is no pertinent reason to assume the underreporting factor is THAT high - even an *1.5 correction would be pretty far-fetched in my opinion, let alone a *2.something as some people seem to imply would be "closer to reality".
I'd call even 400 moons in total "a rather optimistic view", let alone more then that... like, say, god forbid, the absurd count of 800+ that some people *cough*Tesal*cough* try to somehow insinuate might possibly exist.
Originally by: Akita T on 01/12/2009 13:42:06
[...] Let's look at bottlenecks... BEFORE Dominion, the bottlenecks were dysprosium and promethium, with the sample using up an estimated 58% (give or take) of the global production potential. AFTER Dominion, the bottleneck will be mainly technetium, with the exact same sample using up now an estimated 68% of the global production potential, the next bottleneck being neodymium at around 48% of the global production potential. [...] These numbers are with a rough total technetium moon estimate of around 410, even if most likely that number is at around only 370.
There would have to be roughly 480 technetium moons in the game for the overall bottleneck in production to remain at the same level as before Dominion i.e. roughly 58% of total production (with technetium still the main bottleneck) so the same rough amounts of T2 goods would keep being manufactured. There would have to be roughly 590 technetium moons for technetium to become as scarce (relatively) as neodymium and share roughly the same unit prices, and in that case the number of T2 ships (and items in general) would be significantly larger (and therefore cheaper).
Long-term, assuming CCP changes nothing, of course. CCP *will* eventually change something... but what, when or how much... I bet not even they know right now.
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Xavier Hayes
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Posted - 2009.12.15 23:03:00 -
[495]
I LOL till I wet myself on the discussions referring to the two spikes in the Dysprosium market. Let me set the record straight here: the spikes weren't caused by a bottleneck or such, but by some MAJOR market manipulation.
I have already stated elsewhere how I pushed the price up in two stages for Dysprosium, the last being up to the 180k price it settles at for some time. Market forces, namely GREED ensured this rare moon mineral stayed so high. Demand for it was similar to before I pushed the price high- except that after I pushed the price, Alliances with Dyspro moons realised they could get a hell of a lot more per unit than they had previously been selling it at...after that, its a vicious cycle (Dyspro moons become more valuable etc etc etc).
Do some researchthat is at least based on ACTUAL realities on the market.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries The AsyIum
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Posted - 2009.12.15 23:41:00 -
[496]
Originally by: Xavier Hayes I LOL till I wet myself on the discussions referring to the two spikes in the Dysprosium market. Let me set the record straight here: the spikes weren't caused by a bottleneck or such, but by some MAJOR market manipulation.
You think you could have done it without prom/dyspro being bottlenecks? Lol, go ahead and try with Thulium
Would you be so kind as to link to this fabled 'elsewhere', evesearch turns up nothing but CSM posts on the 'Xavier Hayes' character.
Regardless, it is an interesting point - there are still plenty of foolish moon miners who are selling to buy orders for instance, especially from the NC I'm hearing of millions of units changing hands below market price even. They'll pretty much have to be chained to the market history tab with the instructions 'QUIT SELLING SO LOW DUMBASS' engraved on their retinas before they get the message. Less hyperbolic, they need to see that the price can be high, which requires a bit of work from us speculators, once its high it'll stay put given that there's at least a partial bottleneck.
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Gamrikis
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Posted - 2009.12.16 00:51:00 -
[497]
Stop pushing the Tech Up so high, I want to buy more before it passes 30k.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.16 03:30:00 -
[498]
Originally by: Xavier Hayes I LOL till I wet myself on the discussions referring to the two spikes in the Dysprosium market. Let me set the record straight here: the spikes weren't caused by a bottleneck or such, but by some MAJOR market manipulation.
A manipulation which would have been impossible if none of those materials would have been bottlenecks in the first place, also impossible to pull off without the rest of the circumstances in place, and a manipulation in the exact same direction prices would have gone to without the manipulation eventually anyway. Oh, yeah, that was a hell of a manipulation, alright
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.16 04:17:00 -
[499]
Originally by: Xavier Hayes I LOL till I wet myself
By all means feel free to push tech up then.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.16 08:40:00 -
[500]
Neo up as predicted on sell order side.
Buy orders should follow unless neo mercurite reacting becomes less of a money machine. Considering nanotransistor prices I doubt this will occur soon.
Due to the tech spike I've canceled my remaining fullerides sell order seeing as if the tech price holds they are underpriced again ( materials to make ignoring cost of pos/fuel to react =~ cost of finished product), not buying more because I'm not certain if it will and don't want to invest too much more in moon minerals at this point (don't invest what you're not willing to lose yadda yadda.
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.16 11:20:00 -
[501]
Oh my, it seems someone has pushed Technetium to 32K.
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Unity Love
Caldari Dissonance Corp Undivided
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Posted - 2009.12.16 11:25:00 -
[502]
This is the nerdiest thread i've seen in a while.
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Tai pei
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Posted - 2009.12.16 11:52:00 -
[503]
Thanks for this throughout analysis, i must admit that this is mostly beyond me atm for i've not been very keen to fiddle w the EvE online market etc. But as i've played i've slowly taken an inerrest in the deeper goings on in EvE, marketwise.
So , thank you again Akita and all the other contributors. keep at it so we all can be that much wiser :D
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Intaki Tusmik
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Posted - 2009.12.16 14:10:00 -
[504]
Edited by: Intaki Tusmik on 16/12/2009 14:11:07
Originally by: Akita T The POS reactor time nearly doubles however, especially that for complex reactions, and this is actually more or less a good thing, since Dominion will very likely see a lot of 0.0 POSes facing dismantling because they're no longer useful for sov-claiming... at least this way you could put some of the med/large POSes out there to good use reacting.
didnt find the answer from eve-search and didnt read through the whole threadnaught, but does somebody know if CCP changed complex reaction times and what exactly they are?
Simple reaction time should be 1 hour, whats for complex reactions?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.16 15:20:00 -
[505]
Total time, as in, more reactors needed because more advanced materials are needed. The reactions themselves (and the POS setups) are unchanged.
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Intaki Tusmik
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Posted - 2009.12.16 16:26:00 -
[506]
Thank you for clarification.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.16 20:12:00 -
[507]
OK, I'm stumped. Can somebody who understands the preceding mess tell me how we get from ships and modules sold in The Forge over the course of a month to estimating the number of Technetium moons needed to supply manufacturing needs for Eve as a whole, and what assumptions were made along the way.
Just to be clear, I'm not talking about how much tech goes into making the various materials, that should clear enough. For example, a hulk BPO with perfect ME would require 6,000 fullerides and 10,550 nanotransistors which contain a total of 452 units of technetium. An invented BPC with ME -4 would require 50% more.
Now lets assume hulk sales in The Forge average 120 per day. What percent of total sales does this represent (from all regions) and how many of those sales are resales (sales by middle-men, pilots selling "used" ships, etc.)
So the questions are, how do these sales correlate to total production, and what efficiency were the ships built at (i.e. what proportion were invented.) I don't know that we can answer these question, although I assume the devs might have a better idea (a risky assumption I agree, but still an open question.)
Now, I understand that this is not the approach that Akita took, or at least I don't think so. As far as I can tell, he compared the relative demand of high value moons before dominion versus the demand after dominion. But you still face the same issues. For example, hulks seem to account for a relatively huge portion of the tech use after Dominion (I wish I could cite a number but Open Office fails when opening these files) and the relative production estimates could easily be thrown off by distorted sales data.
Perhaps a better approach to take would be to break down the tech demand after dominion by ship, etc. and compare it to Dysprosium and Promethium before dominion to see if the sales data might be distorting the demand projections. I would be willing to take this on if I could get a version of those large spreadsheets to load in Open Office.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.16 20:55:00 -
[508]
Originally by: Claire Voyant OK, I'm stumped. Can somebody who understands the preceding mess tell me how we get from ships and modules sold in The Forge over the course of a month to estimating the number of Technetium moons needed to supply manufacturing needs for Eve as a whole, and what assumptions were made along the way.
There were only two assumptions made initially : 1) that game-wide dysprosium was being used up at the rate it was extracted before Dominion, and that promethium was pretty close behind and 2) that the sample used (of Jita monthly T2 item trade) was a reasonable approximation for moon mineral consumption RATIOS
I think we don't really need to argue about the first assumption, it's pretty obvious. As for the second assumption, the only possible relevant discrepancies were related to the moon minerals involved in racial carbide production. The validity of this approach was also supported by advanced material breakdown of sample, where the ratios were roughly 86% G:C, 75% A:C and 54% M:C, carbide-wise -- besides, none of the "official top 8" moon minerals was involved unilaterally in any of the carbides, so none of them would have been off (ratio-wise) in the overall analysis.
Eventually, it wouldn't really matter whether Jita accounted for 10% or 90% of the game-wide consumption of moon minerals - the calculation of relative scarcity of materials contained the numbers related to volume of trade in Jita on both sides of the division line, so it simplifies out of the equation - as long as the USAGE RATIOS of the moon minerals were reasonably accurate everything was pretty much clear.
After a bit more chatter, a third sort-of assumption / preliminary conclusion / hypothesis was put forth, as it was obvious that dysprosium and promethium were being extracted at or very close to their maximum theoretical potential, yet still dysprosium was the scarcest one, even if absolute amounts needed were less than absolute promethium units needed, so the moon counts HAD to be uneven, or else nothing really made sense. Digging deeper and extrapolating from all available moon scan data, a "most likely moon count estimate" was put together, and the "relative scarcity" in the spreadsheet started to make a lot of sense when looking at the in-game price levels of moon minerals (BOTH without alchemy - prices before the exploit quashing - and after taking into account alchemy - the more recent prices). Basically, so far, we knew the theory was relatively sound, as observations matched the theory.
So after that, it was just a matter of entering the new ship build data and looking at the differences.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.16 22:37:00 -
[509]
Originally by: Akita T Ok, there was a sub-assumption here, that the ratios between manufactured/sold/traded/resold units in each type of T2 item were relatively similar across most item types, but there's no reason to suspect otherwise anyway.
That's what I'm talking about, but I don't mean racial variation since there seems to be the same amount of tech in all the racial components. What I'm talking about is differences between barges and fighting ships for example.
I'm talking about something like 10% of the tech being used in barges. Also Heavy Interdictors and Black Ops representing other big chunks and some serious problems with your sales data for Onyx and Redeemer.
I have tried three different ways to read your files, but am still not able to do much more than browse them, do some quick calculations, and pick out some obvious outliers. Perhaps saving them in something other than XLSX format would help me make my point.
I should also point out that you are assuming sales and production amounts would stay the same, but if the tech price hits certain classes of ships much harder than others, demand might easily shift. For example, if tech ever hits 200k, heavy interdictors would cost over 400 million isk.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.12.17 01:35:00 -
[510]
Originally by: Akita T The validity of this approach was also supported by advanced material breakdown of sample, where the ratios were roughly 86% G:C, 75% A:C and 54% M:C, carbide-wise (so no huge discrepancies).
Just confused a bit. Where do you come up w/ 86% of gallente carbide? Can you explain a bit further?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.17 07:15:00 -
[511]
Originally by: xylopia Just confused a bit. Where do you come up w/ 86% of gallente carbide? Can you explain a bit further?
"After Dominion" sample breakdown by racial carbide usage: 2,779,844,340Crystalline Carbonide 1,729,109,800Fernite Carbide 3,238,666,840Titanium Carbide 2,412,433,760Tungsten Carbide
2,779,844,340/3,238,666,840 -> aprox 86% etc
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.17 07:37:00 -
[512]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/12/2009 07:42:14
Originally by: Claire Voyant I have tried three different ways to read your files, but am still not able to do much more than browse them, do some quick calculations, and pick out some obvious outliers. Perhaps saving them in something other than XLSX format would help me make my point.
Have you tried uploading them to google docs "as is" ?
Would saving them as .XLS (Office '97 format) help you ? Aside from the inability to edit ship component make-up (which is now final, so you shouldn't really need to) and the loss of various visual formatting things, it should retain most of its use. Which one would you need (if you can make use of them) in '97 format ? Both or just the "after dominion" one ?
Quote: I should also point out that you are assuming sales and production amounts would stay the same, but if the tech price hits certain classes of ships much harder than others, demand might easily shift. For example, if tech ever hits 200k, heavy interdictors would cost over 400 million isk.
Let's see... at ME:-1 (so 20% waste), one Onyx needs...
dysprosium86.7 promethium124.5 neodymium428.9 thulium10.5 technetium550.4 mercury448.1 hafnium135.9 caesium89.4 platinum1,079.4 chromium1,888.2 ...and some quantities of the junk stuff too.
The technetium part of it would only cost around 110 mil at 200k per unit for technetium. The rest of the stuff combined (if technetium reaches that 200,000.00 ISK price level) would hardly be worth more than 10-20 mil ISK extra by then, so let's say 130 mil ISK for the materials. On top of that, we have 113 hours' worth of simple reactions and 50 hours' worth of complex reactions plus nearly 8 days of T2 component manufacture slot time (and all expected margins)... which is much more significant than the rest of the junk. Let's call it 200k per hour of complex reaction, 100k per hour of simple reaction and 1 mil per day of manufacture slot (seriously, that's how much most T2 component manufacture was worth before Dominion) - and we get around 35 mil sunk in there too, give or take... then another 5 mil for the ship slot time, so BEFORE invention, the pricetag is at around 170 mil ISK when you use the decryptor that lets you off with the -1 ME BPC... and I seriously doubt it costs you more than 30 mil ISK per invention run obtained at that ME level.
I don't know how you calculate this, but by my calculations I seriously doubt a heavy interdictor will cost much more than 200 mil ISK in those particular circumstances (even if you inflate prices here and there), nowhere close to the 400 mil ISK you suggest. But yeah, you do have a point, some ship classes WILL be hit harder than others, price-wise. Still, it's a good thing heavy interdictors aren't that easily replaceable, function-wise, eh ?
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.17 13:18:00 -
[513]
Originally by: Akita T
The technetium part of it would only cost around 110 mil at 200k per unit for technetium. The rest of the stuff combined (if technetium reaches that 200,000.00 ISK price level) would hardly be worth more than 10-20 mil ISK extra by then, so let's say 130 mil ISK for the materials.
I disagree on this part. I have just completed of survey of a total of 50 systems in 5 regions in 3 types of rats area in 0.0. Eighty to Ninety percent of the R8 metal moons are empty. It appears that the moons worth between 2500 and 5000 are mostly mined. And moons worth more than 10K per unit are always mined. This leads me to believe that the low end moon metals will rise to around 5000 per unit over then next 18 months.
Since an Onyx appears to have around 15,000 units of R8 racial metal, and if the price goes to 5K per unit, the racial R8 costs will be 75 million per Onyx.
I started the game with a hard nose industrial moon metal and ice production company. I know that if a complete chain did not make 1 billion isks per month profit over fuel costs, we would not set up a POS. If the profit went below 500 million isks, we tore it down.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.17 13:28:00 -
[514]
For the time being, you mean. Long term, as long as the moon offers some profit over fuel costs, eventually a lot more moons will be mined. Since all you really need is a small POS (any type), a harvester, a coupling array and a silo (barely above 110 mil ISK invested) and fuel worth, what, maybe 40 mil/month tops, a return of 150 mil ISK/month would be incredibly attractive to a lot of people - and that's barely over 2k ISK per unit of a single extracted mineral. Sure, the days of far-under-1k-ISK-per-unit moongoo might be coming to an end, but from that to expect prices of just about everything to come close to 5k per unit, meh, I don't really think so.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries The AsyIum
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Posted - 2009.12.17 15:04:00 -
[515]
Heh, I remember when you said Tech might reach a stable 30K by Christmas I thought you were overestimating its chances a little. Silly me
Not that this is anywhere close to stable yet but still it's a damned impressive performance...
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Majickthise
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Posted - 2009.12.17 15:07:00 -
[516]
Being somewhat naive in the ways of T2 production i was of the limited understanding that the recent changes to moon goo components in T2 building introduced in domi expansion were to try and fix the bottleneck of rarer materials like dysprosium etc..
why does tech now seem to be even more of one? given that people say they the moons providing it are seemingly limited in number and location?
how does swapping one limited resource for another help? why even do it? whats the ccp logic here?
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.17 15:19:00 -
[517]
Mea culpa, I screwed up on the HID cost calc by a factor of 3. Also, I found a xlsx to xls conversion utility that gave me access to your data, but the formulas still elude Open Office. Will try google docs at some point.
Anyway, here is my promised analysis of tech use by ship class. The top ten use 72.3% of the technetium in Akita's model.
Ship Class%tech /ship /daycost Jump Freighters 12.3%19,934 6.3598 Exhumers10.1% 678*120.0* 20* Heavy Interdictors 9.3% 688137.5** 21 HAC (C2 hull)*** 8.1% 366225.0 11 Marauders 6.7% 1,879 36.3 56 Force Recon 6.3% 423152.0 13 Logistics 4.7% 521 92.0 16 Black Ops 4.4% 1,718 26.3** 52 HAC (C3 hull)*** 3.6% 401 92.0 12 Field Command 3,4% 591 59.0 18 Combat Recon 3.3% 423 79.0 13
Each line represents four ships except exhumers. Second column is the percent of total tech consumed in Akita's model. Third column is units of tech per ship assuming ME -4 invention. Fourth Column is ship sales per day in The Forge from Akita's model. Fifth column is cost in millions of tech per ship at 30K per unit.
* = per ship data is hulk only ** = Akita's sale data seems bad in these classes *** = HACs are divided into two groups of four which use different amounts of tech designated here by the hull type.
The point I want to make is that if tech prices continue to rise, some ship classes will be hit harder than others and sales of some of those ships might decline limiting the upside of tech. I also sugget that you examine your sales data for Onyx and Redeemer.
Now it seems to me that your larger argument is that the old "bottlenecks" rose to 200K after the exploit ws fixed, so tech has the potential to hit 200K if it becomes the new bottleneck. If so, perhaps tweeking the sales data won't make that much difference to your conclusions.
On the other hand, if a cartel takes control of the majority of tech moons in the north, they could potentially sustain demand by ganking hi-sec exhumers and jump freighters.
On a related note, does anybody know what it would take to kill a jump freighter in 20 seconds?
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Almee Canaris
Empire Research and Invention Center
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Posted - 2009.12.17 15:48:00 -
[518]
Around eight sacrileges with caldari navy heavy assault missiles. Qwak qwak... |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.17 16:39:00 -
[519]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/12/2009 16:46:18
Originally by: Claire Voyant Now it seems to me that your larger argument is that the old "bottlenecks" rose to 200K after the exploit ws fixed, so tech has the potential to hit 200K if it becomes the new bottleneck. If so, perhaps tweeking the sales data won't make that much difference to your conclusions.
Yeah, that was more or less my point. The actual numbers and relevant math are somewhere in the thread, first few pages.
Quote: On the other hand, if a cartel takes control of the majority of tech moons in the north, they could potentially sustain demand by ganking hi-sec exhumers and jump freighters.
Thing is, the only reason technetium hasn't gone completely bonkers and sky-high already is the huge stockpiles that still exist. I estimate anywhere between 122 to 525 million units of technetium to exist at this moment EVE-wide (400-600 moons, times 0.35-0.5 unused and stockpiled before, times 1-2 years of HEAVY stockpiling)... possibly more from even earlier. Those stockpiles will need to be consumed in a significant manner before technetium becomes *really* scarce.
Well, that, or people holding it finally realize they're sitting on a gold mine and refuse to sell it cheaper You know, especially since the lion's share of it would be concentrated in the hands of the people that used to (or still do) reside in the North.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.17 20:36:00 -
[520]
This is an odd situation where the raw materials are leading the charge so far ahead of the finished product. I had assumed that the rise from the dominion changes would be felt in the finished products and work their way back (the doubling of the microprocessor output didn't help). Instead Technetium is now way out front and with all those stockpiles of tech sitting there people will naturally figure (as I am) why not go ahead and react it into pt - into nano or ful- into mp's. The profits in mp's are good now, but it would not surprise me if they start slipping dramatically.
The fact that technetium has been going up like a bat outa hell while nanotransistors are fairly stable tells the tale.
BTW I just added nanotransistors to my spell check dictionary- that's one of the warning signs you are playing eve WAY too much.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries The AsyIum
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Posted - 2009.12.17 21:27:00 -
[521]
Nanotransistors have been leading tech for ages now, for each 1K that nanotrans cost their raw materials should be 30K put together, or put another way 1/30th of tech price + 1/30th of neo price + 1/30th of plat price should be the rough nanotrans price... except its been way higher than that. Tech is moving up to close the profitability gap of producing them a bit.
Microprocessors have been selling fine at ~35k/unit, which indicates that a nanotransistor price of 5k+ is sustainable. Work out from there where most of the isk-flow should go to its raw materials.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.17 21:46:00 -
[522]
Originally by: EvilCheez This is an odd situation where the raw materials are leading the charge so far ahead of the finished product. I had assumed that the rise from the dominion changes would be felt in the finished products and work their way back (the doubling of the microprocessor output didn't help). Instead Technetium is now way out front and with all those stockpiles of tech sitting there people will naturally figure (as I am) why not go ahead and react it into pt - into nano or ful- into mp's. The profits in mp's are good now, but it would not surprise me if they start slipping dramatically.
The fact that technetium has been going up like a bat outa hell while nanotransistors are fairly stable tells the tale.
BTW I just added nanotransistors to my spell check dictionary- that's one of the warning signs you are playing eve WAY too much.
Fullerides just went through the roof.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.17 22:05:00 -
[523]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Nanotransistors have been leading tech for ages now, for each 1K that nanotrans cost their raw materials should be 30K put together, or put another way 1/30th of tech price + 1/30th of neo price + 1/30th of plat price should be the rough nanotrans price... except its been way higher than that. Tech is moving up to close the profitability gap of producing them a bit.
Well, more like 1 nanotransistor price = 1/30 of total materials price + (1 bil + 3 large POS monthly fuel cost / 2.16 mil units produced) ISK for expected reactor chain profit, but close enough (that last part comes out as roughly 500-600 ISK extra)
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.17 22:27:00 -
[524]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Mea culpa, I screwed up on the HID cost calc by a factor of 3. Also, I found a xlsx to xls conversion utility that gave me access to your data, but the formulas still elude Open Office. Will try google docs at some point.
Anyway, here is my promised analysis of tech use by ship class. The top ten use 72.3% of the technetium in Akita's model.
Ship Class%tech /ship /daycost Jump Freighters 12.3%19,934 6.3598 Exhumers10.1% 678*120.0* 20* Heavy Interdictors 9.3% 688137.5** 21 HAC (C2 hull)*** 8.1% 366225.0 11 Marauders 6.7% 1,879 36.3 56 Force Recon 6.3% 423152.0 13 Logistics 4.7% 521 92.0 16 Black Ops 4.4% 1,718 26.3** 52 HAC (C3 hull)*** 3.6% 401 92.0 12 Field Command 3,4% 591 59.0 18 Combat Recon 3.3% 423 79.0 13
Each line represents four ships except exhumers. Second column is the percent of total tech consumed in Akita's model. Third column is units of tech per ship assuming ME -4 invention. Fourth Column is ship sales per day in The Forge from Akita's model. Fifth column is cost in millions of tech per ship at 30K per unit.
* = per ship data is hulk only ** = Akita's sale data seems bad in these classes *** = HACs are divided into two groups of four which use different amounts of tech designated here by the hull type.
The point I want to make is that if tech prices continue to rise, some ship classes will be hit harder than others and sales of some of those ships might decline limiting the upside of tech. I also sugget that you examine your sales data for Onyx and Redeemer.
Now it seems to me that your larger argument is that the old "bottlenecks" rose to 200K after the exploit ws fixed, so tech has the potential to hit 200K if it becomes the new bottleneck. If so, perhaps tweeking the sales data won't make that much difference to your conclusions.
On the other hand, if a cartel takes control of the majority of tech moons in the north, they could potentially sustain demand by ganking hi-sec exhumers and jump freighters.
On a related note, does anybody know what it would take to kill a jump freighter in 20 seconds?
mind sharing which HACs are in which hull class?
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.17 23:14:00 -
[525]
Originally by: Mahke
mind sharing which HACs are in which hull class?
I would assume "C2 hulls" means tier 2 cruiser hulls, aka ishtar, vaga, zealot, cerb and thus "C3 hulls" is deimos, muninn, sac, eagle
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.17 23:15:00 -
[526]
Originally by: Mahke mind sharing which HACs are in which hull class?
Take a look at the tech1 variant. If it requires level 2 cruiser skill, I have labeled it C2. If level 3, it is C3. Sounds stupid I know, but it was the only way I could think to differentiate them. C2s seem to be way more propular, so there must be some other difference that I'm missing, being a care bear and all.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.18 08:19:00 -
[527]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Heh, I remember when you said Tech might reach a stable 30K by Christmas I thought you were overestimating its chances a little. Silly me Not that this is anywhere close to stable yet but still it's a damned impressive performance...
Actually, right now, it seems to be relatively stable at 41k buy and 46k sell Seems like people that own tech started to smell the roses and are getting wiser
_
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JaystarZero
Amarr Cult of Jaystar
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Posted - 2009.12.18 09:46:00 -
[528]
Edited by: JaystarZero on 18/12/2009 09:47:16 Edited by: JaystarZero on 18/12/2009 09:47:02 Looks like Fullerides are starting to take a pounding. Do you think the availability of reacting capacity will become an issue for Fullerides as well as Nanotransisters in the coming months Akita?
- The alchemy reaction for Neo might be worth running soon for some people
- I think most of the group A reactions (sulf acid, carbon poly, ect..) are still fairly undervalued.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.18 10:28:00 -
[529]
Edited by: Akita T on 18/12/2009 10:32:07
Nanotransistors are the big problem reactions-wise, while fullerides not really that much of a problem. Still, the profitability of nanotransistor reactor chains will drag technetium up, which will have to drag fullerides up even if the profitability of the fulleride chain is not that great.
As for neodymium, to have its alchemy ramping up, you need first to have neodymium THE VERY LEAST 6 times more expensive than platinum just to barely break even, which, to be honest, would not amount to much alchemy being done at all... at the same time, platinum is set to become more expensive because of its use in both nanotransistors and fullerides (which will ramp up a lot), also because of its use in sylramic fibers (which go into _ALL_ racial armor plates) and in extra quantities in the amarr racial carbide. Overall, platinum is the 3rd most scarce material, right behind neodymium, which is far below technetium... so its most likely price point (that of platinum I mean) will be somewhere between 4 to 8 times less expensive than neodymium, which COULD render platinum->neodymium alchemy just barely profitable depending on exact number of platinum vs neodymium moons.
In my opinion, it's quite unlikely alchemy will be used much at all in the long term, because it will simply be financially unfeasible to bother.
As for the "moon junk" and corresponding reactions, yes, they might be slightly undervalued, but I don't see them jumping up in price an order of magnitude any time soon... although a doubling in price very long term might be possible, a mere 50% increase in price is more likely (if even that much, never underestimate the "I make my own junk reaction but my profit comes from the advanced reaction, so let's consider the simple reaction a wash" people). Compare that to the 300%-500% potential long-term increase in technetium and fullerides from the current level and you see why speculating on them wouldn't be that much of a big deal.
_
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.18 12:23:00 -
[530]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Turiel Demon Heh, I remember when you said Tech might reach a stable 30K by Christmas I thought you were overestimating its chances a little. Silly me Not that this is anywhere close to stable yet but still it's a damned impressive performance...
Actually, right now, it seems to be relatively stable at 41k buy and 46k sell Seems like people that own tech started to smell the roses and are getting wiser
Confirming that Technetium is at 45k
also confirming that I may have just **********d to the market screen
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2009.12.18 12:55:00 -
[531]
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Turiel Demon Heh, I remember when you said Tech might reach a stable 30K by Christmas I thought you were overestimating its chances a little. Silly me Not that this is anywhere close to stable yet but still it's a damned impressive performance...
Actually, right now, it seems to be relatively stable at 41k buy and 46k sell Seems like people that own tech started to smell the roses and are getting wiser
Confirming that Technetium is at 45k
also confirming that I may have just **********d to the market screen
Nooo don't do that D:
...save that for when it hits 150k
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.18 17:31:00 -
[532]
Originally by: Helicity Boson Nooo don't do that D: ...save that for when it hits 150k
150k is not even that hard to reach if CCP does nothing for several months... I'd delay the onanistic activities for when//if it goes past 240k though.
_
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.18 19:07:00 -
[533]
Quote: Nanotransistors have been leading tech for ages now, for each 1K that nanotrans cost their raw materials should be 30K put together, or put another way 1/30th of tech price + 1/30th of neo price + 1/30th of plat price should be the rough nanotrans price... except its been way higher than that. Tech is moving up to close the profitability gap of producing them a bit.
Microprocessors have been selling fine at ~35k/unit, which indicates that a nanotransistor price of 5k+ is sustainable. Work out from there where most of the isk-flow should go to its raw materials.
That was a bad point I made re tech to nano, I was buying nano yesterday so dunno why I said that, wish I had bought more, but my point was rather that the feedback will move in the opposite direction as it would in a market without so much speculation.
If I'm right, the scarcity is in tower time, not raw materials.
If Photon mp's stay this thin through the weekend people will really be complaining about hulk prices. When all else is the same photon mps at 40k push hulks over 200m. Full diclosure those are my photons at 40k.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.18 21:13:00 -
[534]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Helicity Boson I'd delay the onanistic activities for when//if it goes past 240k though.
You think CCP will not take action before it gets that high?
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Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.18 21:19:00 -
[535]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
Originally by: Akita T I'd delay the onanistic activities for when//if it goes past 240k though.
You think CCP will not take action before it gets that high?
Akita did leave it as a if/when scenario and mentioned a few times that CCP could possible change something before then...
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.18 21:28:00 -
[536]
Edited by: corestwo on 18/12/2009 21:31:50 It took CCP ages to do anything at all about dyspro and prom (alchemy) and it did nothing anyway. It took them ages longer to do anything again (this patch). The only reasons they might be faster this time around is either learning from previous mistakes, or because they tried to balance 0.0 with this patch and instead made the northern regions the most valuable in the game, since they have the only tech. I mean, I don't think inter-regional balance was on their agenda, but...
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.18 21:43:00 -
[537]
Originally by: corestwo Edited by: corestwo on 18/12/2009 21:31:50 It took CCP ages to do anything at all about dyspro and prom (alchemy) and it did nothing anyway. It took them ages longer to do anything again (this patch). The only reasons they might be faster this time around is either learning from previous mistakes, or because they tried to balance 0.0 with this patch and instead made the northern regions the most valuable in the game, since they have the only tech. I mean, I don't think inter-regional balance was on their agenda, but...
However they DID react fast (relative to past events) with T3 prices. I imagine they won't jump the gun on this issue, but once things start to settle out in the not too distant future I imagine we'll see CCP step in.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.19 02:34:00 -
[538]
My guess, is in about a year, we get alchemy for r32 moon metals.
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Dank Nugster
2 Girls 1 Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.19 03:01:00 -
[539]
Edited by: Dank Nugster on 19/12/2009 03:01:26
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 18/12/2009 21:46:20
Originally by: corestwo Edited by: corestwo on 18/12/2009 21:31:50 It took CCP ages to do anything at all about dyspro and prom (alchemy) and it did nothing anyway. It took them ages longer to do anything again (this patch). The only reasons they might be faster this time around is either learning from previous mistakes, or because they tried to balance 0.0 with this patch and instead made the northern regions the most valuable in the game, since they have the only tech. I mean, I don't think inter-regional balance was on their agenda, but...
However they DID react fast (relative to past events) with T3 prices. They won't jump the gun on this issue, but once things start to settle out in the not too distant future I imagine we'll see CCP step in.
I suppose it depends on how out-of-whack the prices are. t3 were WAY too expensive to be common before ccp stepped in. There will always be a bottleneck, and tech @100k and tech@250k+ are two very different scenarios indeed.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.19 04:41:00 -
[540]
My opinion, take with giant grain of salt:
I think CCP has noticed already, are already planning whatever change they will make, but will take a long time to implement.
Why? I think they dislike the current moon-minerals-come-from-static-moons paradigm. Its a non-dynamic point source resource that breaks with the ideology behind dominion (regardless of what you think about CCPs success or lack thereof of implementing that ideology). This means rather than a (relatively easy) rejiggering of ship recipes again (although we might see that as a short-term measure if tech hits 200k+/unit), they'll want to do something that allows for moon minerals to be generated or replaced by non moon sources.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.12.19 05:20:00 -
[541]
Originally by: Mahke My opinion, take with giant grain of salt:
I think CCP has noticed already, are already planning whatever change they will make, but will take a long time to implement.
Why? I think they dislike the current moon-minerals-come-from-static-moons paradigm. Its a non-dynamic point source resource that breaks with the ideology behind dominion (regardless of what you think about CCPs success or lack thereof of implementing that ideology). This means rather than a (relatively easy) rejiggering of ship recipes again (although we might see that as a short-term measure if tech hits 200k+/unit), they'll want to do something that allows for moon minerals to be generated or replaced by non moon sources.
Given how well they did with dominion (thinking mining is viable at all, thinking that the best way to improve ratting was to make a few more generally bad anomalies spawn per system, etc), a non-static moon system with the same driving principle frightens me. A lot.
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Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
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Posted - 2009.12.19 05:31:00 -
[542]
Originally by: corestwo Given how well they did with dominion (thinking mining is viable at all, thinking that the best way to improve ratting was to make a few more generally bad anomalies spawn per system, etc), a non-static moon system with the same driving principle frightens me. A lot.
400m Hulks, here we come (again).
Originally by: Karanth Or, in other words, random people can't usurp rights from government because they are insane/bitter/vengeful/made of potato salad.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.19 07:42:00 -
[543]
Whatever they'll do, I seriously doubt they'll be doing it before the summer of 2010
_
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.19 10:51:00 -
[544]
What the hell, I leave to go see a movie and Tech is at 46k in Jita. I come back three hours later, it's up to 56k.
I love you Akita.
Thank god I didn't sell my stock before the movie 0.o
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.19 14:34:00 -
[545]
Originally by: Frenden Dax
Originally by: corestwo Given how well they did with dominion (thinking mining is viable at all, thinking that the best way to improve ratting was to make a few more generally bad anomalies spawn per system, etc), a non-static moon system with the same driving principle frightens me. A lot.
400m Hulks, here we come (again).
I remember a friend losing a 1 bill hulk.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.12.19 17:19:00 -
[546]
Originally by: Melleia What the hell, I leave to go see a movie and Tech is at 46k in Jita. I come back three hours later, it's up to 56k.
I love you Akita.
Thank god I didn't sell my stock before the movie 0.o
Better you keep your stock a bit longer.
Also have some watchful eye on the platinum technite. Sometimes you can make a good bargain there. |
info specialist
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Posted - 2009.12.19 18:21:00 -
[547]
Originally by: Akita T There's plenty of stockpiles of every "low use" moon mineral out there... soon after prices go up enough, somebody in charge of those stockpiles will find a way to get them to the market and fill most of the high buy orders. That's why I said heavy up/down fluctuations even before the patch are nothing unusual... just make sure you buy on the downswing and sell on the upswing
Perhaps the stockpiles were not nearly as deep as once thought. The Silicon Diborites and Sulfuric Acids have maintained their new prices of about double what they were, and I suspect Ceramic Powder will be there shortly.
If these supplies are not nearly as deep as we thought, and as pointed out the time it takes to get more reactions going and product to market, we could be in for very bumpy ride with these low end items.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.19 21:57:00 -
[548]
Originally by: info specialist
Perhaps the stockpiles were not nearly as deep as once thought. The Silicon Diborites and Sulfuric Acids have maintained their new prices of about double what they were, and I suspect Ceramic Powder will be there shortly.
I spent 3 months accumulating 40 million units of low end metals. I believe from the trading pattern, that the reserve stock of any metal is less than 100 million units total, and probably less that 35 million units.
Most players can make 10 or 20 million in null sec per hour, and most low end null sec moons are empty.
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Kwa Zulu
Minmatar The Graduates Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2009.12.20 06:21:00 -
[549]
It's nice to see tech prices still rising, and with very good reason I might say
I'm curious whether CCP will nerf it somehow when the price goes above 100k
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2009.12.20 08:41:00 -
[550]
Originally by: Kwa Zulu It's nice to see tech prices still rising, and with very good reason I might say
I'm curious whether CCP will nerf it somehow when the price goes above 100k
I'd be very surprised if they do anything at all before the market has had time to settle. perhaps if Tech is still crazy high in 6 months or so they will make a change but I wouldn't bet on one before then. --------------------------------------
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2009.12.20 09:03:00 -
[551]
Do you guys think this is the week Fullerides will pass 1000 ISK/unit? They finally broke 900 this weekend.
On a personal note, man it's feels good to be the guy that bought that **** at 200 ISK/unit.
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Lieutenant Obvious
Thundercats RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.20 10:15:00 -
[552]
I've done what I can to try to lower the supply of Tech by our alliance, Morsus Mihi leadership should also be aware of this (and together we and our tenants own a vast swathe of the North, and have large influences on other alliances nearby and blue).
This is assuming they didn't already have a clue and hadn't thought of the possibility of a cartel in Tech - I'm SURE at least one lightbulb switched on a while back and formulated a collusion plan, but I also know that some of the tech I horded very recently came from RZR moon caretakers selling to buy orders.
Well, very worst case someone should be highly aware now and hopefully if nothing has already been planned it soon will be. It makes me richer, it makes RZR and our friends richer, it makes everyone else hate us more and want to COME TO US for a fight... it's a win/win scenario tbfh.
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2009.12.20 11:14:00 -
[553]
oh lawdy lawd: look at that
Delicious.
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destinationunreachable
Hello Kitty Fanclub
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Posted - 2009.12.20 11:29:00 -
[554]
Originally by: Helicity Boson oh lawdy lawd: look at that
Delicious.
I wish... some perl-fu ftw ?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.20 12:33:00 -
[555]
Originally by: Helicity Boson oh lawdy lawd: look at that Delicious.
Nice try, whoever it was... still, simply logging in and checking the market tells you that technetium is almost breaking 60k right now.
_
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.12.20 12:34:00 -
[556]
Originally by: Kwa Zulu It's nice to see tech prices still rising, and with very good reason I might say
I'm curious whether CCP will nerf it somehow when the price goes above 100k
If prices are still high in 3-6 months, you can bet on it, but CCP are always a little nervous to make changes, they like to take their time before making poorly thought out decisions, the longer spent not thinking about them the better.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.20 12:40:00 -
[557]
Tehee, technetium moons are now worth 4.3 bil a piece per month... and sill rising fast. Hooray to whoever controls the North ?
_
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.20 13:45:00 -
[558]
Originally by: Lord Fitz
Originally by: Kwa Zulu It's nice to see tech prices still rising, and with very good reason I might say
I'm curious whether CCP will nerf it somehow when the price goes above 100k
If prices are still high in 3-6 months, you can bet on it, but CCP are always a little nervous to make changes, they like to take their time before making poorly thought out decisions, the longer spent not thinking about them the better.
Remember this?
Quote: Future additional sources besides moons
Beyond Dominion, we are looking towards adding new sources of moon materials so that we will have a dynamic supply which can respond to the changing needs of the marketplace and help resolve the static supply issues we currently see. Some potential routes we have already mentioned previously here and are common suggestions on the forums. We are definitely looking hard at doing something cool here in the future along these lines.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.20 15:00:00 -
[559]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 20/12/2009 12:53:50
Tehee, technetium moons are now worth over 4 bil a piece per month... and sill rising fast. Hooray to whoever controls the North ?
Goons may be forced to invade the north to avoid poverty.
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Xavier Hayes
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Posted - 2009.12.20 15:30:00 -
[560]
In reply to post page (17)
Dysprosium was a bottleneck, except it seemed at the time that noone realised just how much of a bottleneck it was. I played the market and bumped the prices up slowly, collecting large stocks with low buy orders. Remember that there was an exploit in play at the time also, which masked the dependance of many comps on Dysprosium. The result of my two manipulations (the last involving two other multi-billion isk characters) was to make dysprosium moons more valuable, alliances realised how valuable and the lack of supply to market= high price that stayed realitively stable.
Now, the same could be done with Technetium; assume that the market is being manipulated, for exactly the same reasons as Dysprosium! As the cost for Tech climbs, the moons become more valuable and a major factor in alliance wars etc...thus the spiral begins again...unfortunately not in the favour of the little producer requiring technetium...
My post regarding Dysprosium manip can be found on the thread regarding the exploit of ferrogel; CCP had noted 'irregularities' in Dysprosium market...I fessed up (directly to CCP in mail and on forum). It was simple market manipulation.
Xavier
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.20 17:14:00 -
[561]
Well, SOMEBODY decided this weekend should end with tech at 70k, it seems
_
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destinationunreachable
Hello Kitty Fanclub
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Posted - 2009.12.20 18:35:00 -
[562]
Originally by: Akita T Well, SOMEBODY decided this weekend should end with tech at 70k, it seems
I'm truly impressed. Some hours ago someone threw a 1m order at ~59k on the market, which I thought should have delayed the price increase by a day or two...
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Victor Valka
Caldari Preta Light Industries Naraka.
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Posted - 2009.12.20 19:19:00 -
[563]
Someone decided that 70k was too modest a goal for such a nice weekend.
Originally by: Spaztick You are not outnumbered, you are in a target-rich environment.
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Tarne Monter
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Posted - 2009.12.20 19:20:00 -
[564]
Originally by: Akita T Well, SOMEBODY decided this weekend should end with tech at 70k, it seems
All hail our Technetium overlords indeed..... At this rate it might hit 80k.....
I just wish I had more liquid cash when I had invested into tech originally. Now I'm kicking myself for it.. I suppose instead of making out like a bandit, I'll just make out like a drunk bandit.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.20 20:08:00 -
[565]
Originally by: Victor Valka Someone decided that 70k was too modest a goal for such a nice weekend.
I am now quite glad I haven't gotten to selling the few million fullerides I still have left of my moon stocks; they'll inevitable follow upward.
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Ambassador Delenn
The Graduates Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2009.12.20 23:41:00 -
[566]
One interesting thing IÆve noticed when watching the market for nanotransistors and its inputs is who appears to be driving the prices and the differences between the raw and intermediate materials. The raw material is a far larger market which takes far more isk to move but is also easier to speculate in, the intermediates are much smaller and are often used by producers looking to make a quick buck running an advanced reaction tower.
Technetium often leads as speculators push the price higher while pt tech often lags behind until it gets bought up by people looking for a deal.
On the other hand the very small market for neo murcurite has been between 20-30 for a while because producers are still able to make good margins at that price. Raw neodymium on the other hand has received very little attention on any of the hype threads until recently and hasnÆt really moved since producers donÆt spend enough isk to move that large a market very quickly.
I donÆt know what this will mean long term but it is worth noting that producers have been willing to pay the equivalent of 40-60k/unit for neodyinium for a while since they still make a profit at those prices. But producers donÆt necessarily know more about what the price should end up at then speculators do. However it probably wonÆt go higher than that long until the market sorts its self out or the true numbers of tech and neo moons in game are discovered.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.12.21 01:28:00 -
[567]
Originally by: Ambassador Delenn ...
I'm not so sure if big T2 producers start producing again but it seems the trade volume for nanotransistors is not quite at Dominion level yet. That means we'll see even more demand over the horizon, and nano will keep rising till all its demands are met. Until then, running complex reaction will give you good profit, and simple might give you a decent one while cheap raw material stock is available. That's what you're observing now.
Currently, market is full of ppl holding raw material and relatively few ppl start reactioning nano/pt/neo merc. That's why you see those good margin for simple/complex reaction. But market will resolve this situation rather quickly within matter of a month or two and leaves you no profit as lots of reaction bp is currently moving. (182 nano bp moved in forge only in this month.) Btw, tell you what. Two simple neo mercurite reactions in one gal large yeild about 2.5 bn in 30 days period w/o sov boost when all material include fuel bought from matket. this is insane level. It needs to be fixed and it will be fixed for sure. So, don't expect all these easy-isk-printing-days to last longer.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.21 06:02:00 -
[568]
Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 21/12/2009 06:03:40 I own over 25% of the remaining fullerides on market in jita and prices are rocketing. I love it.
Ofc I'm going to wake up to another 40m fullerides up but I feel special for the moment.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.21 06:52:00 -
[569]
Edited by: Mahke on 21/12/2009 06:52:10
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 21/12/2009 06:03:40 I own over 25% of the remaining fullerides on market in jita and prices are rocketing. I love it.
Ofc I'm going to wake up to another 40m fullerides up but I feel special for the moment.
If you're one of those silly 1100 blocking orders rise your dumb prices (if not, hifive for not making that mess worse either). We can easily sustain 1200/unit or a bit better if people were .01ing there instead of at 1100. It's not like people will be reacting new supplies at either pricepoint .
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.12.21 07:35:00 -
[570]
Edited by: xylopia on 21/12/2009 07:35:42
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 21/12/2009 06:03:40 I own over 25% of the remaining fullerides on market in jita and prices are rocketing. I love it.
Ofc I'm going to wake up to another 40m fullerides up but I feel special for the moment.
If you're afraid you're gonna drown in isk flood, just dump some of your surplus on me. I'm always here to help you
-From your best eve friend- |
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Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.21 08:34:00 -
[571]
/me contemplates buying another load of Technetium <_<
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.21 10:24:00 -
[572]
Edited by: Akita T on 21/12/2009 10:25:18
To be fair, I think right now we are in a modestly sized technetium speculation bubble on top of the expected price increase trend... not exactly a bad thing, but probably not the best moment to buy large amounts of technetium if you want a quick buck (if you want to hold it long term however, this might be as good of a moment as any).
P.S. ROFL, this thread already broke the view count of the MD stickies
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Melleia
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Posted - 2009.12.21 13:26:00 -
[573]
Speak of the devil...the bubble popped a little bit.
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Xavier Hayes
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Posted - 2009.12.21 13:37:00 -
[574]
There is no reason that technetium can't be bought out and listed at 180k a unit, to be honest.
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Gella Darru
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Posted - 2009.12.21 13:41:00 -
[575]
Originally by: Xavier Hayes There is no reason that technetium can't be bought out and listed at 180k a unit, to be honest.
Uhm, well I guess one "reason" could be that nobody has the liquid isk to actually do that right now.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2009.12.21 13:44:00 -
[576]
Originally by: Gella Darru
Originally by: Xavier Hayes There is no reason that technetium can't be bought out and listed at 180k a unit, to be honest.
Uhm, well I guess one "reason" could be that nobody has the liquid isk to actually do that right now.
Where is EBank, when we need them ?? :)
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Xavier Hayes
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Posted - 2009.12.21 16:54:00 -
[577]
Actually, after a quick calculation of volume/cost, it wouldn't reuire that large a chunk of isk tbh. Some of us have the amount...
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.21 19:48:00 -
[578]
Edited by: Mahke on 21/12/2009 19:51:36 Instead of fullerides going up to converge with tech, tech collapsed down
Sold 2.5mil fullerides to sell orders down to 920 at a loss (130mil or so, made billions form moon mineral speculation so oh well, win some lose some) to get the liquidity I need to put a floor under tech prices so as to protect the rest of my investment. Buy orders up 1.5k so far, I'll hopefully have the floor at a decent level by tonight. Might work out badly but, someone has to do it .
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.21 20:20:00 -
[579]
I am personally loving the volatility today, netted 500m in a few hours between some well-timed shorts and trading on the spread
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries The AsyIum
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Posted - 2009.12.21 20:27:00 -
[580]
Originally by: Mahke Edited by: Mahke on 21/12/2009 19:51:36 Instead of fullerides going up to converge with tech, tech collapsed down
Sold 2.5mil fullerides to sell orders down to 920 at a loss (130mil or so, made billions form moon mineral speculation so oh well, win some lose some) to get the liquidity I need to put a floor under tech prices so as to protect the rest of my investment. Buy orders up 1.5k so far, I'll hopefully have the floor at a decent level by tonight. Might work out badly but, someone has to do it .
Can you please not do that? Some of us are trying to cause a crash here
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.21 22:08:00 -
[581]
Out of tech myself, but it will be interesting to see if we can tell when TornSoul fills that 100B bond by watching moongoo.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries The AsyIum
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Posted - 2009.12.21 22:24:00 -
[582]
Originally by: EvilCheez Out of tech myself, but it will be interesting to see if we can tell when TornSoul fills that 100B bond by watching moongoo.
With the quantity of it TS will get as collateral he could sell while crashing the market, then buy up again low as it recovers... about as close as you can get to selling short in EvE
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.21 22:37:00 -
[583]
Edited by: Mahke on 21/12/2009 22:44:52 Edited by: Mahke on 21/12/2009 22:41:52
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Mahke Edited by: Mahke on 21/12/2009 19:51:36 Instead of fullerides going up to converge with tech, tech collapsed down
Sold 2.5mil fullerides to sell orders down to 920 at a loss (130mil or so, made billions form moon mineral speculation so oh well, win some lose some) to get the liquidity I need to put a floor under tech prices so as to protect the rest of my investment. Buy orders up 1.5k so far, I'll hopefully have the floor at a decent level by tonight. Might work out badly but, someone has to do it .
Can you please not do that? Some of us are trying to cause a crash here
Too late, buys are back up to a comfortable 56 now, which means fullerides are again ever-so-slightly undervalued, not over.
Too bad I had to liquidate partially, but, crash averted (although not really thanks to me: after buys started rolling upward they continued after I went afk). Not all of us had enough liquidity to exploit that. Although I wish I had been online when people were putting large orders in near 50, dangit.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.22 00:00:00 -
[584]
Originally by: Mahke [ If you're one of those silly 1100 blocking orders rise your dumb prices (if not, hifive for not making that mess worse either). We can easily sustain 1200/unit or a bit better if people were .01ing there instead of at 1100. It's not like people will be reacting new supplies at either pricepoint .
Confirming I'm not one of the silly 1100 orders
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.22 01:40:00 -
[585]
Originally by: Xavier Hayes Actually, after a quick calculation of volume/cost, it wouldn't reuire that large a chunk of isk tbh. Some of us have the amount...
For the units currently on the market, yeah, sure. But you're not taking into account the pre-existing stockpiles (anywhere between 150 to 500 mil units or thereabouts, too uncertain to say for sure exactly how much might be there) which will no doubt be (at least partially) mobilized if the price jumps that much. Do you have a few spare dozen trillion ISK for a manipulation of that magnitude in that specific fashion?
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.22 02:01:00 -
[586]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
Originally by: Mahke [ If you're one of those silly 1100 blocking orders rise your dumb prices (if not, hifive for not making that mess worse either). We can easily sustain 1200/unit or a bit better if people were .01ing there instead of at 1100. It's not like people will be reacting new supplies at either pricepoint .
Confirming I'm not one of the silly 1100 orders
Yeah, I screwed up on this one.
On the bright side, I just got back almost half of what I sold on buy orders for less when they collapsed after I had to speed-liquidate to try to hold up tech.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.22 06:05:00 -
[587]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: EvilCheez Out of tech myself, but it will be interesting to see if we can tell when TornSoul fills that 100B bond by watching moongoo.
With the quantity of it TS will get as collateral he could sell while crashing the market, then buy up again low as it recovers... about as close as you can get to selling short in EvE
Let's look at this picture. Speculator takes out loan to buy more tech giving his existing stockpile of tech as collateral to the bank. Bank decides to make a few extra isk by dumping all the tech it holds as collateral with the intent of buying it back cheaper. Price crashes hard and speculator is wiped out and unable to pay back the loan. How does the bank win?
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Banked
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Posted - 2009.12.22 07:19:00 -
[588]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Let's look at this picture. Speculator takes out loan to buy more tech giving his existing stockpile of tech as collateral to the bank. Bank decides to make a few extra isk by dumping all the tech it holds as collateral with the intent of buying it back cheaper. Price crashes hard and speculator is wiped out and unable to pay back the loan. How does the bank win?
Because even if the speculator doesn't pay back - they forfeit their collateral, which means when the bank dumps the tech, and others jump on the price crash, the bank is able to repurchase at a lower price, and result in much profit longterm, which is the banks game anyway - with the plus side of double dipping at getting interest if the speculator does pay back up :) - the only assumption is the profit on tech hijinks is greater than the difference between the collateral and the loan amount.
Although this raises an interesting question about what ethics the bank holds to - I would consider it unethical, as they are obviously taking advantage of their clients - but then again I happily act in my own unethical best interests when it comes to other transactions :p
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Xavier Hayes
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Posted - 2009.12.22 09:14:00 -
[589]
Originally by: Akita T
For the units currently on the market, yeah, sure. But you're not taking into account the pre-existing stockpiles (anywhere between 150 to 500 mil units or thereabouts, too uncertain to say for sure exactly how much might be there) which will no doubt be (at least partially) mobilized if the price jumps that much. Do you have a few spare dozen trillion ISK for a manipulation of that magnitude in that specific fashion?
Actually, existing stockpiles won't really come into a buy up of existing market stock and relisting at 180k or so a unit. Market forces being what they are, and players being as GREEDY as they are, you be cutting ya nose off in spite of ya face to list a lot lower than 180k...buy orders would come up due to bottleneck etc. Players don't liquidate their stocks to get rid of them generally...but to make as much isk as possible. If technetium is selling at 180k a unit, you can be sure they'll try selling it at 180k a unit.
If you worried about stocks everytime you moved prices up with market manipulation (which I know quite a lot about ), you'd never make any ISK. My reserves could take quite a chunk of the stocked technetium...I'd love to be buying it at 56k when the sell is 180k!
Xavier
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.22 14:26:00 -
[590]
Originally by: Banked
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Let's look at this picture. Speculator takes out loan to buy more tech giving his existing stockpile of tech as collateral to the bank. Bank decides to make a few extra isk by dumping all the tech it holds as collateral with the intent of buying it back cheaper. Price crashes hard and speculator is wiped out and unable to pay back the loan. How does the bank win?
Because even if the speculator doesn't pay back - they forfeit their collateral, which means when the bank dumps the tech, and others jump on the price crash, the bank is able to repurchase at a lower price, and result in much profit longterm, which is the banks game anyway - with the plus side of double dipping at getting interest if the speculator does pay back up :) - the only assumption is the profit on tech hijinks is greater than the difference between the collateral and the loan amount.
Of course the bank CAN make money speculating in tech, but the issue I was debating was whether this was "as close as you can get to short selling in Eve." The idea in short selling is to make money when the price moves down, not to lose it all and then make it back by speculating on it going up again. Short selling in the real-world requires a system of exchanges with rules and brokers with deep pockets who are required to make good on their customers trades.
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.22 14:30:00 -
[591]
Originally by: Xavier Hayes
Originally by: Akita T
For the units currently on the market, yeah, sure. But you're not taking into account the pre-existing stockpiles (anywhere between 150 to 500 mil units or thereabouts, too uncertain to say for sure exactly how much might be there) which will no doubt be (at least partially) mobilized if the price jumps that much. Do you have a few spare dozen trillion ISK for a manipulation of that magnitude in that specific fashion?
Actually, existing stockpiles won't really come into a buy up of existing market stock and relisting at 180k or so a unit. Market forces being what they are, and players being as GREEDY as they are, you be cutting ya nose off in spite of ya face to list a lot lower than 180k...buy orders would come up due to bottleneck etc. Players don't liquidate their stocks to get rid of them generally...but to make as much isk as possible. If technetium is selling at 180k a unit, you can be sure they'll try selling it at 180k a unit.
If you worried about stocks everytime you moved prices up with market manipulation (which I know quite a lot about ), you'd never make any ISK. My reserves could take quite a chunk of the stocked technetium...I'd love to be buying it at 56k when the sell is 180k!
Xavier
So quit talking about it and do it
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Leon Aerie
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Posted - 2009.12.22 14:44:00 -
[592]
So really, with promethium and dysprosium skyrocketing overnight, whats with the basement falling out from under ferrogel? |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.22 14:46:00 -
[593]
Edited by: Akita T on 22/12/2009 14:49:33
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Xavier Hayes
Originally by: Akita T For the units currently on the market, yeah, sure. But you're not taking into account the pre-existing stockpiles [...]
Actually, existing stockpiles won't really come into a buy up of existing market stock and relisting at 180k or so a unit. Market forces being what they are, and players being as GREEDY as they are[...]
So quit talking about it and do it
I echo that sentiment - if you indeed can somehow borrow the necessary ISK and are completely confident you are correct (and stand to make a profit from it), do as I did and put your (borrowed) money where your mouth is
Originally by: Leon Aerie So really, with promethium and dysprosium skyrocketing overnight, whats with the basement falling out from under ferrogel?
Expect those two to fall back down sooner rather than later. The downwards push comes form the finished T2 components, trickling down to all materials and moon minerals. Temporary upswings in dyspro/prom are expected, just like temporary downswings in technetium are also to be expected.
_
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Leon Aerie
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Posted - 2009.12.22 15:03:00 -
[594]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 22/12/2009 14:49:33
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Xavier Hayes
Originally by: Akita T For the units currently on the market, yeah, sure. But you're not taking into account the pre-existing stockpiles [...]
Actually, existing stockpiles won't really come into a buy up of existing market stock and relisting at 180k or so a unit. Market forces being what they are, and players being as GREEDY as they are[...]
So quit talking about it and do it
I echo that sentiment - if you indeed can somehow borrow the necessary ISK and are completely confident you are correct (and stand to make a profit from it), do as I did and put your (borrowed) money where your mouth is
Originally by: Leon Aerie So really, with promethium and dysprosium skyrocketing overnight, whats with the basement falling out from under ferrogel?
Expect those two to fall back down sooner rather than later. The downwards push comes form the finished T2 components, trickling down to all materials and moon minerals. Temporary upswings in dyspro/prom are expected, just like temporary downswings in technetium are also to be expected.
yeah....15,000 ferrogel is unacceptable...lol |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.22 15:16:00 -
[595]
Originally by: Akita T do as I did and put your (borrowed) money where your mouth is
You mean someone else's money.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.22 16:33:00 -
[596]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T do as I did and put your (borrowed) money where your mouth is
You mean someone else's money.
This is EVE - if you got it, it's yours. If you plan to give it back later, well, that's a whole different story
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.22 19:03:00 -
[597]
Originally by: Akita T do as I did and put your (scammed) money where your mouth is
Fixed it for you.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.22 19:21:00 -
[598]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Fixed it for you.
Well, you'll have to wait 3 and a half months before you can say that with a straight face
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Vhiskey
Caldari Imperial Forces
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Posted - 2009.12.22 19:27:00 -
[599]
akita will NOT turn this into a scam. sidebets anyone?
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Xavier Hayes
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Posted - 2009.12.22 19:56:00 -
[600]
I LOL re: me buying up stocks. FFS, who do you think hoards millions of units??? It was, after all, 1800 isk a unit not so long back ;)
I'll keep buying it at 56k for the time being...as it is MY ISK (not borrowed) afterall, and I have lots of it...
Why don't you buy it all Akita, if you are confident in your projections and analysis?
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Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.22 20:00:00 -
[601]
Originally by: Xavier Hayes Why don't you buy it all Akita, if you are confident in your projections and analysis?
LOL
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.22 20:17:00 -
[602]
Originally by: Xavier Hayes Why don't you buy it all Akita, if you are confident in your projections and analysis?
Hmm, let's see... On one hand, I don't have the required funds, I don't feel like borrowing even more, I don't think the CURRENT growth rate is sustainable (I just said we're in a mini-bubble, didn't I?) and that it will take a good while before the market can really handle such prices long-term with everybody emptying their stockpiles, and therefore buying out all of it now and relisting at 180k would be POINTLESS, since it will be many months before that price level is sustainable. On the other hand, it was YOU who suggested existing stockpiles don't really matter and that buyout-and-relist would be a feasible action. ...so remind me again, why should I do what I said is not a good idea to do, instead of you doing what YOU said is a good idea to do ?
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.22 20:23:00 -
[603]
Edited by: EvilCheez on 22/12/2009 20:25:47 edit: nevermind
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Zora
Gallente smackin localz INDUSTRIAL REV0LUTI0N
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Posted - 2009.12.22 22:29:00 -
[604]
Edited by: Zora on 22/12/2009 22:33:23 MD Drama Class, Part 1, "The Scheme"
Two men meet in a dark alley of Jita 4-4. Being serious business men, they wear grey coats and grey hats, and exchange worried looks. One of them carries a newspaper, with a clearly visible headline: 'Technetium - Buy, Buy, Buy!'
A: "It's like I could see the whole thing, one long chain of events that stretched all the way back before Dominion. I felt like I could see everything that happened, and everything that is going to happen. It was like a perfect pattern, laid out in front of me. And I realized we're all part of it, and all trapped by it."
B: "So do you know what's gonna happen?"
A: "No, it was a feeling. But I can guess. With so much chaos, someone will do something stupid. And when they do, things will turn nasty. And then Akita will be forced to do the only thing he knows how to do. At which point, all Xavier Hayes needs to do is keep his word. And then..."
B: "Crap. CCP will get rid of the technetium bottleneck before anyone had time to get rid of everything they stockpiled, amiright?"
A: "Well, it was just a feeling."
Characters exit stage.
[No pre-existing movie dialogs were harmed in the making of this play. If you do however happen to find a mutilated dialog from a certain movie, you may keep it ;)]
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.22 22:41:00 -
[605]
Originally by: Vhiskey akita will NOT turn this into a scam. sidebets anyone?
OK, I'll take that bet. I say Akita will not be giving the profits to investors.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.22 22:44:00 -
[606]
Edited by: Akita T on 22/12/2009 22:45:31
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Vhiskey akita will NOT turn this into a scam. sidebets anyone?
OK, I'll take that bet. I say Akita will not be giving the profits to investors.
If by that you mean I won't be spreading the additional profit (if any) and only return precisely as much as the bond specified (roughly 25% extra at the maturity date), all I can say is "duuh!"
Originally by: Zora MD Drama Class, Part 1, "The Scheme" [...] B: "Crap. CCP will get rid of the technetium bottleneck before anyone had time to get rid of everything they stockpiled, amiright?" A: "Well, it was just a feeling." Characters exit stage.
It is indeed one of the possibilities
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions Arcane Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.23 04:06:00 -
[607]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 05/11/2009 14:51:57
P.S. If you HAVE to know, only a small % of my stock is in technetium, and I can't find more at a reasonable price anymore... ...anybody want to sell me technetium at 3-4k per unit ? I'll buy
Would you care to disclose the size of your stockpile?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.23 04:21:00 -
[608]
Edited by: Akita T on 23/12/2009 04:23:25
Originally by: BlondieBC Would you care to disclose the size of your stockpile?
The exact numbers of all items purchased were already made public in my bond thread roughly 3 weeks ago, just before the patch downtime, if you want the exact details (it's when I purchased most of my Technetium). If you're just interested in my technetium stockpile and not care about exact numbers, it's a bit over 6.2 mil units.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions Arcane Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.23 17:21:00 -
[609]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 23/12/2009 04:30:09
Originally by: BlondieBC Would you care to disclose the size of your stockpile?
The exact numbers of all items purchased were already made public in my bond thread roughly 3 weeks ago, just before the patch downtime, if you want the exact details (it's when I purchased most of my Technetium, it's all explained right there).
If you're just interested in my technetium stockpile and not care about exact numbers, it's a bit over 6 mil units purchased at an average price a bit over 11k per unit (before patch day, my average purchase price was at around 3k per unit).
Thanks for the information.
I as more interested in the R8 and R16. I chose to invest in them due to the lower risks associated with a low cost below fuel cost. My domination speculation was that low ends would go up to 1000, which is a little bit above fuel costs. They have largely reached this level or will reach this level within 6 weeks, IMO.
I started buying low ends (R8) around October, and I purchased them in the range of 130 to 400 per unit. I have sold enough to get my capital back, but I am reading your post to help figure out how much more the prices will rise.
Right now, by best guess is all minerals and gases will sell for 3000 to 5000 on a sustained basis. I do not have hard research to support this, this is a feeling based on watching the market for 4 months.
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.23 17:39:00 -
[610]
Technetium bubble has been popping hard for the last 2 days or so. Now's the time to short your inventory and add to the chaos
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2009.12.23 17:42:00 -
[611]
Originally by: Tiberizzle Technetium bubble has been popping hard for the last 2 days or so. Now's the time to short your inventory and add to the chaos
I hope it continues! I need new stockpiles :D
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.23 18:31:00 -
[612]
Originally by: BlondieBC Right now, by best guess is all minerals and gases will sell for 3000 to 5000 on a sustained basis.
First off, consider that the number of POSes all around have actually reduced, so there's no reason to assume ice products will go up in price significantly, and therefore tower fuel costs will remain relatively modest. Second, even now, when we see that reaction towers are in dire need, the reaction overhead, hauling and expected profit from reactions is actually the main cost in most simple reaction products, not the actual moon mineral costs. Finally, there's a heavy abundance of moons with the needed materials for most of the "in radically heavier demand" (or at least with materials very close by) "junk" reactions - it really makes little sense for too many people to buy materials from places like Jita and move them to a reaction POS then bring back the product when you can probably find a moon to harvest it all (or even react directly on it) with little effort. Moreover, the reaction POSes might as well extract the rest of the "junkier" materials at the same moon for little additional cost, so I seriously doubt gasses will ever trade above fuel-breakeven in significant quantities... and that's nowhere near 3k per unit. Frankly, I'd be strongly surprised to ever see any of the "junk" moongoo trading for a longer period of time in noticeable amounts anywhere significantly above 1k per unit.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions Arcane Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.23 22:30:00 -
[613]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: BlondieBC Right now, by best guess is all minerals and gases will sell for 3000 to 5000 on a sustained basis.
First off, consider that the number of POSes all around have actually reduced, so there's no reason to assume ice products will go up in price significantly, and therefore tower fuel costs will remain relatively modest. Second, even now, when we see that reaction towers are in dire need, the reaction overhead, hauling and expected profit from reactions is actually the main cost in most simple reaction products, not the actual moon mineral costs. Finally, there's a heavy abundance of moons with the needed materials for most of the "in radically heavier demand" (or at least with materials very close by) "junk" reactions - it really makes little sense for too many people to buy materials from places like Jita and move them to a reaction POS then bring back the product when you can probably find a moon to harvest it all (or even react directly on it) with little effort. Moreover, the reaction POSes might as well extract the rest of the "junkier" materials at the same moon for little additional cost, so I seriously doubt gasses will ever trade above fuel-breakeven in significant quantities... and that's nowhere near 3k per unit. Frankly, I'd be strongly surprised to ever see any of the "junk" moongoo trading for a longer period of time in noticeable amounts anywhere significantly above 1k per unit.
This may be a bit disjointed, but here is my thoughts.
First, I am assuming that a small POS will cost 70,000 per hour to run. Fuel cost may go up or down, but I assume they are fairly constant.
When I look at the market, it looks like we have the following categories of materials:
Gasses: Trading at 500'ish. I assume that the marginal POS are in low sec. (By marginal, I mean where the pure, for profit player adds or removes POS's)
R8 and Vanadium: Selling at 1000' ish. To me these metals appear to be using both current production and substantial amounts of inventory.
Chromium, Cadnium, and Mercury: I believe these are using current mining for production and a little inventory.
Platnium: Example of stable, non-bottleneck moon. (BTW, I am finding unmined platnium moons in deep 0.0. These moons are well know, because I discuss them in local with the residents. These moons are remaining unmined. There are multiple large and medium POS in these systems that could easily be moved to the platnium moon. To me, this says that even 5000 per moon does not guarantee that moons will be mined. The real key is the number of jumps. Moons withing one jump of empire will be mined for 5000, moons that are two jumps are not worth mining.)
The real test of my theory is this. If 3000 to 5000 is the correct range, we should see the price of the R8 metals break out to about 2000 and hold there for a month.. Each metal will break separately. We will see each metal continue to sell at a 1000'ish until there is less than a days supply on market. Sometimes when the supply goes between 0.3 and 1.0 days on sell order, the price will move.
I guess only time will fully answer this debate. I would be surprised if the moon metals trade below 1000 in a few months. This is why I am holding 40 + million units. I have enough confidence to continue to hold the stock indefinately, but not to go into serious missions to earn more isks to buy more stock or to liquidate my strategic reserve of 20 Plexes.
I plan to work on a post on the economics on null sec moon mining and try to present in more intelligent way.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions Arcane Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.23 23:02:00 -
[614]
More Orderly Analysis By A Profit Motivated, Marginal Moon Metal Miner.
Assumptions:
1)I am in null sec. 2)I have to have blue status with locals for POS to survive. This obviously has some cost, and will vary by region. 3)POS die in null sec. It is not a question of if, but when. 4)I will use a JF to move the goods. JF costs 4 billion. Also, JF die in null sec. It is not a question of if, but when.
Base Case:
I have found a moon with a non-bottleneck moon metal. A small POS with silo, harvester, and light weapons is setup. This will cost around 250m. It will cost 50 million per month in fuel which I will bring from empire on the return trips from taking metals to Jita. If this is one or two hops into low sec, I can handle easily with a transport. So the question is, how much profit do I need to make this worth my time. Let us look at pricing level by 1000 isk increments.
Isks per UnitProfit per Month
1000 22 Million 2000 94 Million 3000166 Million
The question becomes, at what level is it attractive to you, at what level is it attractive to your corp mates to start running a POS. Assuming these POS are in low sec, I believe that 22 million per month is way to low to be attractive, and 3000 is definitely attactive. Others will have different opinions:
Middle Case:
The POS is in null sec, withing one JF jump. It is not practical to use transports to handle logistics. Most of the Analysis is the same. The differences relate to hauling transports and Fuel Costs. I can support my POS with one round JF trip per month. This cost 100m per month in JF fuel. ( A friend runs my JF, so this number may be off or may include some salary time.). So total Fuel costs goes to 150 million per month.
*** If anyone has a JF rate much lower than 100 million per trip, please convo me in game to discuss business opportunities.
Isks per UnitProfit per Month
1000 (78) Million 2000 (6) Million 3000 66 Million 4000 138 Million 5000 210 Million
To me, anything lower than 5000 per unit is not worth the effort. Others will have a difference price.
Assume that I setup 20 POS like this in 5 systems to mine an R8 and that the price is 5000 per unit. One JF loss means no cash flow for the month. If in say a constellation, I can do fewer jumps.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions Arcane Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.23 23:10:00 -
[615]
Harder Case:
Same as above case, except now two hops out. I need a large deathstar to protect the logistic route at the mid-point. My cost are now 50 million on fuel for mining POS, 200 million on fuel for death star, and 100 million for JF fuel for a total of 350 million monthly costs.
Isks per UnitProfit per Month
1000 (278) Million 2000 (206) Million 3000 (144) Million 4000 (72) Million 5000 0 Million 6000 72 Million
Obviously, if I have to do two jumps, it is not economical to mine at any price.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.23 23:51:00 -
[616]
There's only one small problem with your analysis... you assume there aren't more than enough moons that offer multiple minerals to mine to fill the whole demand.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.25 02:14:00 -
[617]
I think we will be seeing a pretty interesting market activity the next few days... like a hugely over-extended weekend... Christmas + weekend + probably some days off + New Year + another weekend... this should prove interesting.
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Barton Foley
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Posted - 2009.12.25 02:30:00 -
[618]
I wonder if we can break 100k this weekend.
I also wonder what happens when we hit triple digits and everyone and their dog dumps inventory.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.25 02:34:00 -
[619]
Originally by: Barton Foley I wonder if we can break 100k this weekend.
During the course of this "extended weekend", we might get there (don't hold your breath), but it won't last long, and the volume traded at/above that level will be pretty low.
Quote: I also wonder what happens when we hit triple digits and everyone and their dog dumps inventory.
Rocks fall, everybody dies ? Price goes back down, duh. It's to be expected. Did anybody really expect a smooth ride, slowly up on the price trend with no drops ? I've probably seen smoother roller-coasters than what the technetium price history will be looking like the next few months.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.25 05:21:00 -
[620]
Edited by: Mahke on 25/12/2009 05:22:02
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Barton Foley I wonder if we can break 100k this weekend.
During the course of this "extended weekend", we might get there (don't hold your breath), but it won't last long, and the volume traded at/above that level will be pretty low.
Quote: I also wonder what happens when we hit triple digits and everyone and their dog dumps inventory.
Rocks fall, everybody dies ? Price goes back down, duh. It's to be expected. Did anybody really expect a smooth ride, slowly up on the price trend with no drops ? I've probably seen smoother roller-coasters than what the technetium price history will be looking like the next few months.
Lost hundreds of millions with that poorly timed fullerides play and made almost all of it right back by snapping up cheap technetium and platinum technite (although I was admittedly doing that to try to support fullerides rather than for its own sake, lol); high volatility time has started it looks like.
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.25 14:32:00 -
[621]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Barton Foley I wonder if we can break 100k this weekend.
During the course of this "extended weekend", we might get there (don't hold your breath), but it won't last long, and the volume traded at/above that level will be pretty low.
Quote: I also wonder what happens when we hit triple digits and everyone and their dog dumps inventory.
I am going to second "don't hold your breath". It seems (relatively) stable around 50k +/-5k sell, and there are enough large orders covering the price spectrum to dampen any large movements. It will take either a huge spike in demand, a similar interruption of supply, or (more) massive manipulation to push into triple digits so soon (if ever). From what I've seen it is speculation and speculation alone holding the price as high as it is: the sellers would be happy with it to be under 40k. Once or twice a day large (10-30b) positions are being assumed with buy order support, after which throat-cutting by station traders drives the price down rapidly to the minimum margin over outstanding buys while buys trend down until the next large movement.
Further, intermediate and advanced reactions don't reflect the Technetium demand at all. Prices on reaction products have been trailing technetium movement for hours if not days until speculation reached them. If in fact the pressure on technetium was in any way indicative of manufacturing demand, we would expect to see movement in the reaction products leading or closely following technetium. This implies those who are purchasing the Technetium must not be using it: if they were rational and making use of it, they would favor the cheaper reaction products.
To what extent the current demand and price point is entirely synthetic is anyone's guess. It is clear that speculators are fighting against overwhelming supply. Will stockpiles run out before the speculators pockets are empty? Can manufacturing demand alone sustain these prices?
It is my opinion, in any case, that waiting for stable growth from here on will be "holding your breath," and unless your position is in the tens of billions you will find better opportunities for growth elsewhere. Trading on the volatility remains profitable, but will do little to raise the ceiling for those holding long positions.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.12.25 14:40:00 -
[622]
Originally by: Mahke Lost hundreds of millions with that poorly timed fullerides play and made almost all of it right back by snapping up cheap technetium and platinum technite (although I was admittedly doing that to try to support fullerides rather than for its own sake, lol); high volatility time has started it looks like.
Way to go babe
Just keep playing your price show. I'll watch it w/ a bottle of nice, cold beer.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.25 14:42:00 -
[623]
Edited by: EvilCheez on 25/12/2009 14:44:18
Quote: From what I've seen it is speculation and speculation alone holding the price as high as it is: the sellers would be happy with it to be under 40k. Once or twice a day large (10-30b) positions are being assumed with buy order support, after which throat-cutting by station traders drives the price down rapidly to the minimum margin over outstanding buys while buys trend down until the next large movement.
Further, intermediate and advanced reactions don't reflect the Technetium demand at all. Prices on reaction products have been trailing technetium movement for hours if not days until speculation reached them. If in fact the pressure on technetium was in any way indicative of manufacturing demand, we would expect to see movement in the reaction products leading or closely following technetium. This implies those who are purchasing the Technetium must not be using it: if they were rational and making use of it, they would favor the cheaper reaction products.
I agree. Tech to adv. mats have been pushed higher rather than pulled higher.
When Ptechnite is selling at a 10-20% premium to its parts I might be interested, but thats not to say that the people who are buying are wrong either. Many of the really big wallets had to be happy with small percentages whereas tech is something you could still put 100b into and do much better than cap blueprint research.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries The AsyIum
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Posted - 2009.12.25 16:05:00 -
[624]
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Barton Foley I wonder if we can break 100k this weekend.
During the course of this "extended weekend", we might get there (don't hold your breath), but it won't last long, and the volume traded at/above that level will be pretty low.
Quote: I also wonder what happens when we hit triple digits and everyone and their dog dumps inventory.
I am going to second "don't hold your breath". It seems (relatively) stable around 50k +/-5k sell, and there are enough large orders covering the price spectrum to dampen any large movements. It will take either a huge spike in demand, a similar interruption of supply, or (more) massive manipulation to push into triple digits so soon (if ever). From what I've seen it is speculation and speculation alone holding the price as high as it is: the sellers would be happy with it to be under 40k. Once or twice a day large (10-30b) positions are being assumed with buy order support, after which throat-cutting by station traders drives the price down rapidly to the minimum margin over outstanding buys while buys trend down until the next large movement.
Further, intermediate and advanced reactions don't reflect the Technetium demand at all. Prices on reaction products have been trailing technetium movement for hours if not days until speculation reached them. If in fact the pressure on technetium was in any way indicative of manufacturing demand, we would expect to see movement in the reaction products leading or closely following technetium. This implies those who are purchasing the Technetium must not be using it: if they were rational and making use of it, they would favor the cheaper reaction products.
To what extent the current demand and price point is entirely synthetic is anyone's guess. It is clear that speculators are fighting against overwhelming supply. Will stockpiles run out before the speculators pockets are empty? Can manufacturing demand alone sustain these prices?
It is my opinion, in any case, that waiting for stable growth from here on will be "holding your breath," and unless your position is in the tens of billions you will find better opportunities for growth elsewhere. Trading on the volatility remains profitable, but will do little to raise the ceiling for those holding long positions.
Interemediate reaction products always trail both end products and raw materials - using them is just not very practical for people who hasve a full set of reaction POS running: reactors just go from raw material --> finished product without actually paying much attentiont ot he intermediate which is why it has so little movement. Nanotransistors are the important end product and they've been leading tech for a long while now, tech is only just starting to catch up.
I'd say we'd be lucky to see a price over 80k in the near future, and it'll come down a bit too after, though it's important to note how little tech tradign has been happening the last couple of days - normal production should require something like 1.6m units/day after all.
Don't forget that Akita originally said we might see a price of thirty thousand by christmas, and that we've shot way ahead of that, and yes that is mostly specultarors... I highly doubt we'll se prices below 45k again nonetheless.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.25 21:44:00 -
[625]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Don't forget that Akita originally said we might see a price of thirty thousand by christmas, and that we've shot way ahead of that, and yes that is mostly specultarors... I highly doubt we'll se prices below 45k again nonetheless.
Yeah, it's funny in retrospect how people laughed when I said "stable above 30k by Christmas" a longer time ago, claiming it to be nearly impossible... after which others (more recently) laughed at prices dropping from 70k implying the prices will keep on dropping or somesuch. Yup, people either just lack patience or fail to see the big picture no matter how long you point it out to them
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Vhiskey
Caldari Imperial Forces
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Posted - 2009.12.26 00:36:00 -
[626]
do you still think that T2 ship prices will be below pre-dominion longterm?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.26 01:06:00 -
[627]
Originally by: Vhiskey do you still think that T2 ship prices will be below pre-dominion longterm?
Not so sure anymore... Some ship classes will certainly become more expensive, some might go back down to pre-Dominion levels. Overall however, most likely a net price increase, sadly.
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Vhiskey
Caldari Imperial Forces
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Posted - 2009.12.26 10:18:00 -
[628]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Vhiskey do you still think that T2 ship prices will be below pre-dominion longterm?
Not so sure anymore... Some ship classes will certainly become more expensive, some might go back down to pre-Dominion levels. Overall however, most likely a net price increase, sadly.
and this is not what ccp intented i guess. so what will ccp do? change the mat reqs again? and when? do they read and understand this thread? will they wait 6 months to get a solid picture of the market?
or is it even intended cause it may cause war between south and north and keeps md addicted?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.26 12:10:00 -
[629]
Edited by: Akita T on 26/12/2009 12:13:56
Originally by: Vhiskey and this is not what ccp intented i guess.
Hey, I warned them this could happen To be fair, I thought it would not be so sudden and permanent, but then I guess I can't be right 100% of the time either
Quote: so what will ccp do?
As usual, right now and in the near future, absolutely nothing
Quote: change the mat reqs again? and when? do they read and understand this thread? will they wait 6 months to get a solid picture of the market?
Problem is, CCP has repeatedly shown that when it comes to their own game's economy, they have no clue how their changes will actually affect the market, in spite of their hired "economic guru", being only capable of knee-jerk reactions that end up... well, the way you just saw it. There's so many things they COULD do, that it boggles the mind... and out of all possibilities, they seem to pick a random one and tweak it so extremely that it becomes almost as bad as it was before, just in the opposite direction. As to when ? They'll probably wait at least 3 months before even considering it a problem OFFICIALLY, then another couple of months before a change is concocted... so yeah, 6 months minimum before they actually do something about it sounds about right... if you're an optimist Bottom line, they will act only A WHILE AFTER the technetium stockpiles will be pretty much exhausted and technetium price is stable at an "unacceptable" level, if the past is a good indicator of the future.
Quote: or is it even intended cause it may cause war between south and north and keeps md addicted?
While this would be awesome as a reason, I seriously doubt it. _
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Vhiskey
Caldari Imperial Forces
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Posted - 2009.12.26 12:52:00 -
[630]
Originally by: Akita T
Quote: or is it even intended cause it may cause war between south and north and keeps md addicted?
While this would be awesome as a reason, I seriously doubt it.
ok, lets do something weird. lets assume ccp knows 100% what they do and how their changes affect the market. what intentions do you see?
the reason i like this thought experiment is that i know game companies which do not only keep bugs and seemingly misdesigns in a game they actually create them on purpose.
when i worked for electronic arts i was surprised in the first instance when i realized it but then i asked the designers about the reasons and it made perfect sense
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.26 14:16:00 -
[631]
Originally by: Vhiskey
Originally by: Akita T
Quote: or is it even intended cause it may cause war between south and north and keeps md addicted?
While this would be awesome as a reason, I seriously doubt it.
ok, lets do something weird. lets assume ccp knows 100% what they do and how their changes affect the market. what intentions do you see?
Well, assuming that's actually what CCP wants...
It would mean that they WANT old stockpiles of "previously worthless" stuff to become depleted, while new stockpiles of "previously valuable" stuff to start accumulating (problem is, not all materials fit that profile (with thulium being the worst offender, used to be pretty worthless, now it's even worse). It would also mean that they have an upcoming system to allow people to spend time in creating additional moon minerals (comet mining, anyone ?) which would be put into play once stockpiles have evened out a bit (problem is, if the new system NEEDS even stockpiles, it won't solve anything, since the purpose of such a system should be to selectively extract the ones in most dire need, so there would be no need to do a stockpile evening beforehand). Of course, it could be something simpler - they have a long-term plan for all of this, but for the time being, they couldn't make it fit into their schedule, so they opted to just give it a quick bump into the opposite corner, buying them enough time to come up with something while the markets are still shifting, hopefully being ready to deploy the solution before it gets too badly out of control (in which case, they made an even bigger mistake, since it certainly looks like we will soon have a situation that's worse from all possible viewpoints than the previous situation - so they might have simply delayed it all and it would have still been better). However, they COULD probably want to have some things worse, at least for a while - for instance, to see a major alliance territory shift alongside heavy losses territorial wars over (now highly localized) new precious resources (but then again, their stated initial intention was to PREVENT the existence of such resources in the first place... one would then have to assume they were lying about that in that case).
As much as I'd like to assume "all of this was actually CCP's plan", it doesn't really make much sense. A much more simple and likely explanation (especially since it's corroborated by a long history) is simple incompetence in these particular type of matters. Eventually, they MIGHT get it right though, after enough pushing and shoving and nasty market happenings along the way. On the plus side, traders almost always win in these cases - it's "only" the rest of EVE that suffers.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions Arcane Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.26 14:23:00 -
[632]
I think ccp wants the Great Technium WAR, where all big power blocks go for the NC regions. The probably figure this would open up space in the west, south, and maybe east.
As a general rule of thumb, i assume that the ccp "strategic" plans can fit on a few used ****tail napkins.
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.26 22:21:00 -
[633]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tiberizzle Further, intermediate and advanced reactions don't reflect the Technetium demand at all. Prices on reaction products have been trailing technetium movement for hours if not days until speculation reached them. If in fact the pressure on technetium was in any way indicative of manufacturing demand, we would expect to see movement in the reaction products leading or closely following technetium. This implies those who are purchasing the Technetium must not be using it: if they were rational and making use of it, they would favor the cheaper reaction products.
Interemediate reaction products always trail both end products and raw materials - using them is just not very practical for people who hasve a full set of reaction POS running: reactors just go from raw material --> finished product without actually paying much attentiont ot he intermediate which is why it has so little movement. Nanotransistors are the important end product and they've been leading tech for a long while now, tech is only just starting to catch up.
How is using them not very practical for people who have a full set of reaction POS running? That's a full set of medium and large POS which require fuel. The cost of fuel only adds to the opportunity cost of raw Technetium when favored over intermediate and advanced reaction products selling more cheaply per unit of Technetium involved in their manufacture. Even leaving intermediate reaction POS onlined with reactors offlined and using intermediate products from market to drive advanced reactions while selling raw products is more cost effective than reacting with those POS. Keeping multiple sets of reactors offlined at those POS to respond to market conditions would be more effective still.
I'm just not seeing how pressure only at the beginning and end of the chain can be interpreted as anything but frenzied speculation. I think the observation (however accurate) that intermediates usually trail raw materials lacks sufficient explanation to be framed within the context of the argument, but I would welcome further discussion.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.27 00:33:00 -
[634]
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Tiberizzle Further, intermediate and advanced reactions don't reflect the Technetium demand at all. Prices on reaction products have been trailing technetium movement for hours if not days until speculation reached them. If in fact the pressure on technetium was in any way indicative of manufacturing demand, we would expect to see movement in the reaction products leading or closely following technetium. This implies those who are purchasing the Technetium must not be using it: if they were rational and making use of it, they would favor the cheaper reaction products.
Interemediate reaction products always trail both end products and raw materials - using them is just not very practical for people who hasve a full set of reaction POS running: reactors just go from raw material --> finished product without actually paying much attentiont ot he intermediate which is why it has so little movement. Nanotransistors are the important end product and they've been leading tech for a long while now, tech is only just starting to catch up.
How is using them not very practical for people who have a full set of reaction POS running? That's a full set of medium and large POS which require fuel. The cost of fuel only adds to the opportunity cost of raw Technetium when favored over intermediate and advanced reaction products selling more cheaply per unit of Technetium involved in their manufacture. Even leaving intermediate reaction POS onlined with reactors offlined and using intermediate products from market to drive advanced reactions while selling raw products is more cost effective than reacting with those POS. Keeping multiple sets of reactors offlined at those POS to respond to market conditions would be more effective still.
I'm just not seeing how pressure only at the beginning and end of the chain can be interpreted as anything but frenzied speculation. I think the observation (however accurate) that intermediates usually trail raw materials lacks sufficient explanation to be framed within the context of the argument, but I would welcome further discussion.
I think you can both be right. I once had a Platinum moon (among others) and I bought Tech in Jita to make both Fullerides and Nanos. Even though I was using the tech to make Pt-Tc, I never really considered buying the intermediate material off the market because that would leave me with excess platinum to sell and unused capacity. On the other hand, I knew someone who would buy almost all their materials in Jita and would run whatever reactions were most profitable at the moment.
As in any market, you have producers that are more interested in long-term efficiency and others who respond to market opportunities. You need both kinds to have a stable market because the former provide a steady supply no matter what the market conditions and the latter make the marginal adjustments.
So, yes it is normal for intermediate materials to lag simple and complex, but that doesn't mean we were seeing a "normal" lag. Given what else was going on, the simplest explanation is still that some speculators were buying up tech without looking at plat-tech prices. I don't remember if there was ever a point when tech was more than 2 times the price of plat-tech, but there were a few occasions when plat-tech was so cheap that the platinum was being valued for much less than its market price.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.28 06:59:00 -
[635]
Originally by: Tiberizzle How is using them not very practical for people who have a full set of reaction POS running?
Price instability, convenience, volume.
They're profitable to use today, not profitable to use 2 days from now... or profitable this supply run, not profitable the next one. Especially since the volumes are low enough so several people doing a supply run on the same stuff can heavily push price up. So basically, sometimes even if "just now" it might be profitable to buy some, it's more convenient to run your own. And there's always also the shipping issue, that also adds some cost - usually simple reaction POSes are nearby to your complex reaction ones, so hauling it around is easy, but importing it all from Jita is at best inconvenient ; also, simple reactions are larger than the sum of its moon minerals (especially since most of the time you only haul ONE of the minerals, alongside POS fuel back).
Streamlining the process, minimizing POS setup/dismantling time and keeping up the fuel/supply/sales routine is usually more important than marginal additional profits from switching around as the simple reaction market wind blows.
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
destinys child
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Posted - 2009.12.28 12:45:00 -
[636]
Originally by: Akita T Streamlining the process, minimizing POS setup/dismantling time and keeping up the fuel/supply/sales routine is usually more important than marginal additional profits from switching around as the simple reaction market wind blows.
I concur. Same goes for Complex also although to a lesser degree . I personally tend to stockpile rather than swap especially for periods of less than 30 days or so . I may at that point switch depending on stock ammounts of goo and the said costs of such, and reactions + what the market is doing at the time .
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.29 03:12:00 -
[637]
Third consecutive day of technetium volume less than 1M.
Speculation demand wanes, manufacturing demand much less than projected c/d?
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Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
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Posted - 2009.12.29 03:36:00 -
[638]
Originally by: Tiberizzle Third consecutive day of technetium volume less than 1M.
Speculation demand wanes, manufacturing demand much less than projected c/d?
Could also be that a lot of people are away for the holidays. After New Years I'd be interested in seeing if the volume picks up.
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UTRocketman11
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Posted - 2009.12.29 04:08:00 -
[639]
Originally by: Tiberizzle Third consecutive day of technetium volume less than 1M.
Speculation demand wanes, manufacturing demand much less than projected c/d?
Could also be the fact that the largest producers probably already stocked a bunch of stuff when it was cheap. It will take a while to burn through those stockpiles. Speculators weren't the only one buying.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.29 05:45:00 -
[640]
Edited by: Akita T on 29/12/2009 05:47:32
Originally by: Tiberizzle Third consecutive day of technetium volume less than 1M. Speculation demand wanes, manufacturing demand much less than projected c/d?
At the current prices, nanotransistor reaction chains yield obscene profit levels - technetium isn't going down noticeably any time soon. Also, the current price is higher than projected, significantly higher, over 50% higher. In fact, technetium volume traded is actually more than projected, and after you also consider the fact T2 ship production has shrunk for the time being, while dysprosium/promethium prices stubbornly refuse to drop below neodymium price (which is undoubtedly needed more)... well, you get the idea. Or maybe you don't and somebody else would have to spell it for you - I did notice in another thread you have reading&understanding issues (or maybe you were being intentionally dense there, who cares, same reaction is required).
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.29 10:46:00 -
[641]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 29/12/2009 05:47:32
Originally by: Tiberizzle Third consecutive day of technetium volume less than 1M. Speculation demand wanes, manufacturing demand much less than projected c/d?
At the current prices, nanotransistor reaction chains yield obscene profit levels - technetium isn't going down noticeably any time soon. Also, the current price is higher than projected, significantly higher, over 50% higher. In fact, technetium volume traded is actually more than projected, and after you also consider the fact T2 ship production has shrunk for the time being, while dysprosium/promethium prices stubbornly refuse to drop below neodymium price (which is undoubtedly needed more)... well, you get the idea. Or maybe you don't and somebody else would have to spell it for you - I did notice in another thread you have reading&understanding issues (or maybe you were being intentionally dense there, who cares, same reaction is required).
I was intentionally quoting out of context in the referenced thread. In fact, I even edited the quoted text in one of the posts. Perhaps you should return to it and exercise some of this reading comprehension before ****ting up your own thread with off-topic butthurt.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.29 13:03:00 -
[642]
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tiberizzle bla
counter-bla [...] I did notice in another thread you have reading&understanding issues (or maybe you were being intentionally dense there, who cares, same reaction is required).
I was intentionally quoting out of context in the referenced thread. In fact, I even edited the quoted text in one of the posts. Perhaps you should return to it and exercise some of this reading comprehension before ****ting up your own thread with off-topic butthurt.
It's quite on-topic, thank you very much - or at least, the bulk of my post was, the part you nicely ignored. That plus your "clarification" just now shows that you have a habit of basically ignoring everything serious and mockingly posting whatever crosses your mind in a disruptive fashion. In other words, that nobody should really take you seriously. Or better said, that we should counter-mock you as soon as possible.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
muppet 11aux
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Posted - 2009.12.29 16:00:00 -
[643]
Edited by: muppet 11aux on 29/12/2009 16:00:37
Originally by: Tiberizzle Third consecutive day of technetium volume less than 1M.
Speculation demand wanes, manufacturing demand much less than projected c/d?
VOLUME OF DYSOPRSIUM, PROMETHIUM, PLATINUM, CHROMIUM, etc. WAY LESS THAN 5 DAYS AGO!!! SPECULATION DEMAND WANING!!!!
THE BUBBLE IS OVER!!! GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN!
(you're ******ed)
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2009.12.29 16:05:00 -
[644]
Originally by: muppet 11aux Edited by: muppet 11aux on 29/12/2009 16:00:37
Originally by: Tiberizzle Third consecutive day of technetium volume less than 1M.
Speculation demand wanes, manufacturing demand much less than projected c/d?
VOLUME OF DYSOPRSIUM, PROMETHIUM, PLATINUM, CHROMIUM, etc. WAY LESS THAN 5 DAYS AGO!!! SPECULATION DEMAND WANING!!!!
THE BUBBLE IS OVER!!! GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN!
(you're ******ed)
waaa!
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RAW23
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Posted - 2009.12.29 17:46:00 -
[645]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
Originally by: muppet 11aux Edited by: muppet 11aux on 29/12/2009 16:00:37
Originally by: Tiberizzle Third consecutive day of technetium volume less than 1M.
Speculation demand wanes, manufacturing demand much less than projected c/d?
VOLUME OF DYSOPRSIUM, PROMETHIUM, PLATINUM, CHROMIUM, etc. WAY LESS THAN 5 DAYS AGO!!! SPECULATION DEMAND WANING!!!!
THE BUBBLE IS OVER!!! GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN!
(you're ******ed)
waaa!
Akita misled us!! Burn him!!! I'll even pay for the wood since I have a few extra billion lying around from technetium profits.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.29 21:56:00 -
[646]
**** it, bought back in when someone put up a sell order at 40k.
Prices are down hard.
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Jessicat
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Posted - 2009.12.29 23:06:00 -
[647]
So, is this a good moment to buy some more tech?
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2009.12.29 23:44:00 -
[648]
Edited by: Tiberizzle on 29/12/2009 23:54:36
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 29/12/2009 13:31:30
Originally by: Tiberizzle
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tiberizzle bla
counter-bla [...] I did notice in another thread you have reading&understanding issues (or maybe you were being intentionally dense there, who cares, same reaction is required).
I was intentionally quoting out of context in the referenced thread. In fact, I even edited the quoted text in one of the posts. Perhaps you should return to it and exercise some of this reading comprehension before ****ting up your own thread with off-topic butthurt.
It's quite on-topic, thank you very much - or at least, the bulk of my post was, the part you nicely ignored. That plus your "clarification" just now shows that OCCASIONALLY you have a habit of basically ignoring everything serious and mockingly posting whatever crosses your mind in a disruptive fashion (while also liberally altering quoted content whenever it suits you - and if you want to go back and check, you will notice how I DID notice your alterations and omissions and corrected them, so don't talk to me about MY reading comprehension - you can however argue my sarcasm-and-or-asshattery metering system's accuracy if you like). In other words, that nobody should really take you seriously without some thought first as to whether you were serious or not. Or better said, that we should counter-mock you as soon as possible whenever we feel one of your "smells like bullcrap" posts.
Now if you don't mind, if you have nothing to add to the bla-counterbla part of the posts, would you kindly stop trying to make your recent actions look less silly ?
I made a post with clear intent, you misinterpreted the intent, and then based personal attacks across multiple threads on that misinterpretation. I may be a douchebag for joking about what I did -- but I was clearly joking. You're seriously being a ****tard.
If you'd like to discuss the substance of my rather simple post in this thread without resorting to character assassination and unqualified arguments, perhaps we can clarify what your current projections are for Technetium demand, what projection you're referring to for the price that it "exceeded by 50%", how that price projection was derived, and why that price projection (which seemed to be pulled from your ass at the time) is relevant to the current demand? Otherwise, I see nothing to respond to.
I made a pretty simple and factual statement: Technetium has been for several days drastically below recent activity and the most recent figure I've seen in the thread for projected Technetium demand -- 1.6m/day. I believe it was actually Turiel that made the post projecting this demand, but I don't care enough to dig it up. I found the recent activity interesting and posted it, I see no reason for the mountain of stupidity that has piled on since then. If you don't think this is spectacular, or feel that your vague insinuations are sufficient analysis of the activity, feel free to say so without sperging all over your own thread.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.30 01:31:00 -
[649]
Originally by: Jessicat So, is this a good moment to buy some more tech?
Maybe, its hard to say, I've been wrong before (and right before, of course). Have both a buy and a sell order out atm to take advantage of the gap.
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elohllird
Funky Chill Collective
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Posted - 2009.12.30 01:40:00 -
[650]
Tiber, Akita , get a room. the man luv is strong
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.12.30 08:38:00 -
[651]
Edited by: EvilCheez on 30/12/2009 08:38:30 Sins of a Solar Spymaster - nothing really new, but some mention of the tech situation.
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fmercury
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.12.30 13:17:00 -
[652]
Originally by: Jessicat So, is this a good moment to buy some more tech?
Yep, especially if you're making nanotransistors with that tech :V
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.30 13:23:00 -
[653]
Edited by: Akita T on 30/12/2009 13:25:56
Originally by: Tiberizzle I made a pretty simple and factual statement: Technetium has been for several days drastically below recent activity and the most recent figure I've seen in the thread for projected Technetium demand -- 1.6m/day. I believe it was actually Turiel that made the post projecting this demand, but I don't care enough to dig it up. I found the recent activity interesting and posted it, I see no reason for the mountain of stupidity that has piled on since then. If you don't think this is spectacular, or feel that your vague insinuations are sufficient analysis of the activity, feel free to say so without sperging all over your own thread.
Before Dominion, the Technetium traded volume hovered between 300k and 900k most of the days, with an occasional spike over 1 mil and occasional dips to minimal values, an average volume of 600k per day, give or take, let's say even 21 mil per month, tops (so about 700k per day average). IF T2 ship production would have remained stable in volume (which it hasn't, it actually dropped heavily), and if technetium trade would have remained at same ratio of directly reacted vs simply traded (obviously not the case since so much speculation has been going on), then at its peak, technetium trade would have probably reached 1.4 mil per day average, not more, because on average, technetium usage in ships has roughly doubled compared to pre-Dominion levels. The 3-4 mil per day spikes were mainly due to the speculation trade going on, most likely not even a third of that being "actual" trading from extractors to manufacturers. Also, once you consider that the T2 ship contruction process has been noticeably reduced in volume (as many T2 ship manufacturers simply ceased production while prices stabilize), it's pretty hard to gauge what the real technetium demand volume actually is, because we do not know for SURE how much T2 production levels have dropped - is it just a 20% drop or is it a 75% drop in manufacture volume ? Simply looking at traded ship volumes doesn't help THAT much either, since those were also subject to a heavy trader volume spike as many realized ship prices will be going up for a while - even so, volumes traded are still lower than before Dominion on average, so you KNOW the T2 ship production level has dropped significantly (just not how much). I would have to say that the most likely numbers (and yes, they ARE pulled out of my bowels) are in-between a 33% to 50% drop in manufacture volume. If T2 production dropped 33%, then the "normal" Technetium daily trade volume should be around 925k per day ; if it dropped 50%, a normal volume would be 700k per day. We need T2 ship production to go back up to pre-Dominion levels before a "normal" trade volume would be closer to 1.4 mil per day. Absolutely no idea where any of you got 1.6 mil a day as "normal".
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.30 14:01:00 -
[654]
Edited by: Dretzle Omega on 30/12/2009 14:02:27
Originally by: Tiberizzle I may be a douchebag for joking about what I did -- but I was clearly joking.
Yes, you are, for that.
"Joking" about animal cruelty. "Joking" that the person that cared for the animal for three years was the one that performed horrible acts to it. And "joking" when liberally modifying posts and/or ignoring people calling you on it.
In my part of the world, we don't call that joking. You found a good word for it, though. And STILL not apologizing for it until you got tongue-lashed by Akita here. I'm sorry, not apologizing, dismissing it as a "joke", a sick, inhumane, and cruel "joke". I forgot you mention to also compared the caregiver to a serial murderer that got his start killing animals.
Just thought I'd explain it all for those here that didn't read the other thread.
But please, let's ignore that and get back on topic here.
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Dealeeo
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Posted - 2009.12.31 05:16:00 -
[655]
Current Jita Prices for Technetium: Buy: 39,000 Sell: 42,000 Volume (12/30): 1.9 mill units.
Seems like the "crash" is stabilizing.
But what of the future, and why the dip off the 12/20 high (59,000 avg. on volume of 3.2 million)?
Function of holidays, or speculative bubble is collapsing?
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.31 05:57:00 -
[656]
Originally by: Dealeeo Current Jita Prices for Technetium: Buy: 39,000 Sell: 42,000 Volume (12/30): 1.9 mill units.
Seems like the "crash" is stabilizing.
But what of the future, and why the dip off the 12/20 high (59,000 avg. on volume of 3.2 million)?
Function of holidays, or speculative bubble is collapsing?
It bottomed out at 34k (buys irrelevant because only like 10k units got sold to them); where I bought even more .
Prices went up too high too fast, and more people wanted to get out than invest more to such a degree that the gap absolutely overwhelmed actual consumption.
If desire to invest + consumption > desire to liquidate, price rises. If the other way, it falls. Which is of course a tremendous oversimplification, but whatever.
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Tagami Wasp
Caldari Sarz'na Khumatari Ushra'Khan
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Posted - 2009.12.31 21:44:00 -
[657]
If you want to really be able to project what is the timeframe for T2 market stabilitzation, you need to find out what is the average HAC + fittings lifetime. (That's the biggest T2 market out there, maybe ceptors are No2)
----------------------------------------------- This is a line of text without any meaning. ----------------------------------------------- |
JitaEspion
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Posted - 2010.01.01 00:22:00 -
[658]
Originally by: Tagami Wasp If you want to really be able to project what is the timeframe for T2 market stabilitzation, you need to find out what is the average HAC + fittings lifetime. (That's the biggest T2 market out there, maybe ceptors are No2)
Hard to figure becuase you have new pilots coming on and old ones moving up to bigger and better things. Also, HAC use is down somewhat due to T3 cruisers.
Personally I think the way to judge HAC use/cost is to watch price at market hubs near 0.0 rather than Jita which gets skewed by trading.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.01 09:48:00 -
[659]
When will things stabilize ? Well, as long as dysprosium and promethium still trade at prices above neodymium (yes, neodymium, not just technetium), you can bet it's nowhere even close to stability.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions Arcane Alliance
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Posted - 2010.01.01 15:08:00 -
[660]
Originally by: Akita T When will things stabilize ? Well, as long as dysprosium and promethium still trade at prices above neodymium (yes, neodymium, not just technetium), you can bet it's nowhere even close to stability.
When dyspro and prom trade at the price of platnium, we can begin to discuss price stability.
Right now, the market is being driven by speculation buying, and liquidation of moon miners inventory, IMO.
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Clair Bear
Ursine Research and Production
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Posted - 2010.01.01 17:18:00 -
[661]
Here's a thought for you. How long until corps other than EVOKE figure out that losing an unrigged battleship is a zero financial impact activity? Yes, a HAC is nicer than a battleship in terms of survivability and travel time.
But when a single rig costs as much as *two* fitted battleships after insurance why on earth go for T2?
To put it another way, a blob of t2 fit battleships costs less than a "small gang" including even one interceptor or suicide bomber. Yes, you can probably pop a RR gang's BS with a blob of bombers, but if they manage to alpha even ONE in return the losses are far higher on the t2 hull using side.
So, if this mindset catches on you'll see ever lower profits on t2 hull manufacture and greater increase in t2 module use.
And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
Ashina Sito
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.01.01 19:18:00 -
[662]
Originally by: Clair Bear How long until corps other than EVOKE figure out that losing an unrigged battleship is a zero financial impact activity? Yes, a HAC is nicer than a battleship in terms of survivability and travel time.
But when a single rig costs as much as *two* fitted battleships after insurance why on earth go for T2?
I have been teaching people to do this for almost 2 years. You get more fights because you don't have to run from things that are risky. The ISK loss is so low the issue is logistics not finances that ends up as then limiting factor.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.01 20:17:00 -
[663]
Originally by: Clair Bear Here's a thought for you. How long until corps other than EVOKE figure out that losing an unrigged battleship is a zero financial impact activity? Yes, a HAC is nicer than a battleship in terms of survivability and travel time. But when a single rig costs as much as *two* fitted battleships after insurance why on earth go for T2?
That has been true almost always since T2 existed (and it's been far worse at times, especially right before invention came along)... so my guess is "never" or "a very, very long time" And the main reason why ? E-Peen.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.01 20:24:00 -
[664]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Clair Bear Here's a thought for you. How long until corps other than EVOKE figure out that losing an unrigged battleship is a zero financial impact activity? Yes, a HAC is nicer than a battleship in terms of survivability and travel time. But when a single rig costs as much as *two* fitted battleships after insurance why on earth go for T2?
That has been true almost always since T2 existed (and it's been far worse at times, especially right before invention came along)... so my guess is "never" or "a very, very long time" And the main reason why ? E-Peen.
Once again another thing for which you have no clue about and are providing advice on.
Being an 06 character, you have no idea how it was before then and anything you 'research' would be just like your speculation.
By the way, I still see you telling people to hold on or buy tech related items in this thread - you still far too exposed?
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Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.01 20:26:00 -
[665]
Originally by: Lord XSiV you still far too exposed?
You still on a bad attempt at market manipulation?
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2010.01.01 20:30:00 -
[666]
Originally by: Ashina Sito the issue is logistics not finances that ends up as then limiting factor.
You explained yourself why this isn't done as widely.
When I did most of my fighting in lowsec I didn't fit rigs, fly any t2 hulls, and would sometimes even cut out t2 mods if a named one was almost as good and much cheaper.
Now in 0.0 everything is t2/meta(3/4) fit and sometimes t2 hulls because logistics is hell.
When logistics is a large part of the price of a new ship, you go pricier on other things. When logistics is almost free you tank your ship not with ehp but by being able to replace it for almost nothing.
Also, I'm sure e-peen plays a role for some people as well.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.01 20:33:00 -
[667]
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Clair Bear Here's a thought for you. How long until corps other than EVOKE figure out that losing an unrigged battleship is a zero financial impact activity? Yes, a HAC is nicer than a battleship in terms of survivability and travel time. But when a single rig costs as much as *two* fitted battleships after insurance why on earth go for T2?
That has been true almost always since T2 existed (and it's been far worse at times, especially right before invention came along)... so my guess is "never" or "a very, very long time" And the main reason why ? E-Peen.
Once again another thing for which you have no clue about and are providing advice on.
Being an 06 character, you have no idea how it was before then and anything you 'research' would be just like your speculation.
By the way, I still see you telling people to hold on or buy tech related items in this thread - you still far too exposed?
If you really are a T2 producer you must be having an absolute fit about the price of tech. Failed to stock up in time, did we? But of course not. You buy your mats years in advance. In fact, even before you know how the requirements will change from patch to patch. Because you don't like risk!
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fmercury
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2010.01.01 21:01:00 -
[668]
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Clair Bear Here's a thought for you. How long until corps other than EVOKE figure out that losing an unrigged battleship is a zero financial impact activity? Yes, a HAC is nicer than a battleship in terms of survivability and travel time. But when a single rig costs as much as *two* fitted battleships after insurance why on earth go for T2?
That has been true almost always since T2 existed (and it's been far worse at times, especially right before invention came along)... so my guess is "never" or "a very, very long time" And the main reason why ? E-Peen.
Once again another thing for which you have no clue about and are providing advice on.
Being an 06 character, you have no idea how it was before then and anything you 'research' would be just like your speculation.
By the way, I still see you telling people to hold on or buy tech related items in this thread - you still far too exposed?
He's right, you're wrong, he's smart, you're dumb.
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Hera Ominae
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Posted - 2010.01.01 22:34:00 -
[669]
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Being an 06 character, you have no idea how it was before then and anything you 'research' would be just like your speculation.
LMAO
This is 09 character, I must be noob!
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Hertford
Ars ex Discordia GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2010.01.01 23:51:00 -
[670]
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Being an 06 character, you have no idea how it was before then and anything you 'research' would be just like your speculation.
Of course, who can forget the vibrant moon mineral market in 2006 and before. |
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Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2010.01.02 10:25:00 -
[671]
Originally by: Clair Bear Here's a thought for you. How long until corps other than EVOKE figure out that losing an unrigged battleship is a zero financial impact activity? Yes, a HAC is nicer than a battleship in terms of survivability and travel time.
But when a single rig costs as much as *two* fitted battleships after insurance why on earth go for T2?
To put it another way, a blob of t2 fit battleships costs less than a "small gang" including even one interceptor or suicide bomber. Yes, you can probably pop a RR gang's BS with a blob of bombers, but if they manage to alpha even ONE in return the losses are far higher on the t2 hull using side.
So, if this mindset catches on you'll see ever lower profits on t2 hull manufacture and greater increase in t2 module use.
For fights that are conducted just for the sake of fighting, perhaps. Where the fight is actually for some objective, well... winners dont fit to lose.
So, no Akita, it's not about "epeen". It's about winning the fight. Losing unrigged, cheaply fitted BS is cheap, but it's not free. Bringing sub-par ships to a fight for a tech moon or a station or to defend your supercaps can get very expensive indeed...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.02 10:56:00 -
[672]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 11:03:13
Yeah, sure, some types of T2 ships are necessary in some circumstances, but they are mostly the combat support, not the mainstay//DPS of the fleet. I guess you could bring in a fleet of Zealots for DPS, but then again, wouldn't Apocalypses or Abbadons be better overall for that role most of the time ? Granted, not the best of examples, but you get the idea - you don't always absolutely need a very T2-heavy fleet when mostly-BSs will do just fine too.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Carniflex
StarHunt Systematic-Chaos
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Posted - 2010.01.02 11:09:00 -
[673]
Originally by: Malcanis
For fights that are conducted just for the sake of fighting, perhaps. Where the fight is actually for some objective, well... winners dont fit to lose.
So, no Akita, it's not about "epeen". It's about winning the fight. Losing unrigged, cheaply fitted BS is cheap, but it's not free. Bringing sub-par ships to a fight for a tech moon or a station or to defend your supercaps can get very expensive indeed...
The 'problem' is tho, that when there is some objective to be met then that objective is in today's EVE relatively static so additional mobility of T2 hulls is outclassed by additional survivability of T1 battleship and battlecruiser hulls. Especially if supported by relatively cheap carrier blobs. Losing a insured carrier is only a bit worse economically than losing uninsured HAC, if you don't go nuts with faction stuff on it. Part of the conflict is always economical in EVE.
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2010.01.02 11:34:00 -
[674]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 11:03:13
Yeah, sure, some types of T2 ships are necessary in some circumstances, but they are mostly the combat support, not the mainstay//DPS of the fleet. I guess you could bring in a fleet of Zealots for DPS, but then again, wouldn't Apocalypses or Abbadons be better overall for that role most of the time ? Granted, not the best of examples, but you get the idea - you don't always absolutely need a very T2-heavy fleet when mostly-BSs will do just fine too.
T2 ships are used pretty extensively in lowsec and faction warfare, particularly the smaller varieties.
In lowsec a BS is still more cost efficient than a HAC in many cases, but the decreased mobility of the battleship often makes it a poor choice for solo and small gang combat as it lacks the ability to get out in a hurry, easily getting swarmed by smaller, faster ships.
Recons are another shiptype that definitely has a niche that cannot be filled by T1 ships in low security space.
Currently the newly buffed pirate faction ships have cause a little shift away from T2 vessels, but their prohibitive price means this shift is fairly minor.
While lowsec generally does not see massive 500-man fleets getting blown up, it would be a mistake to underestimate the number of ships that meet their end in combat in lowsec on a daily basis.
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Demolishar
H Y E N A
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Posted - 2010.01.02 17:14:00 -
[675]
I never factor insurance in while assessing the price/performance ratio of a ship. Simply because the "Isk Lost" stat on my killboard doesnt factor in insurance, and "Isk Lost" matters more to me than losing isk. Still, the prices of T2 ships are a joke. I was OK with a Curse costing me 80-90mil, but now I'm paying 130M for the same ship? If anything T2 ship prices should have been lowered, or at least kept the same, but raising them is just ridiculous.
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Zarazaa
Scarlet Blood
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Posted - 2010.01.02 19:46:00 -
[676]
Your taking this a little to far tbh, a proper fitted Battleship/Battlecruiser, even unrigged will never brake even with insurance, not even close.. at present prices T2 does look far less appealing then T1 does, but actual cost of loosing T1 is anything but nill..
Here's an example of two common T1 hulls, Hurricane and Apoc with standard/common t2 fits, and this is how the numbers look.. (item prices are rounded up, witch at most will leed to a 2-3 mil error in final costs)
Fleet Apoc(comon fit)
Tachyon Beams II x 7 = 20 mil Sensor Booster II x 3 = 2.5 mil 100MN MWD II = 7 mil 1600RT = 4 mil EANM II = 1 mil Tracking Enhancer II = 1 mil RCU II = 0.5 mil Heat Sink II x 2 = 2 mil Damage Control II = 1 mil Valkirie II x 5 = 2.5 mil Warrior II x 5 = 1.5 mil IN Standard L x 7 = 7 mil IN Multifrequency l x 7 = 7 mil Aurora L x 7 = 6 mil
Apoc Hull = 78 mil Platinum Insurance = 34 mil
Total cost = 175 mil Insurance Payout = 113 mil
Effective loss = 62 mil(add 3 Trimarks and you end up with about 110-115 mil loss)
Low Sec Hurricane(common fit)
220mm Vulcan II x 6 = 7.5 mil Small Energy Neut II x 2 = 1 mil Gyrostabilizer II x 2 = 2 mil Medium Armor Rep II = 1 mil EANM II = 1 mil 1600RT = 4 mil Damage Control II = 1 mil 10MN MWD II = 4 mil Warp Disruptor II = 1 mil Stasis Web II = 1 mil Med Cap Injector II = 1 mil Hobgoblin II x 6 = 2 mil Barrage M x 5000 = 1.5 mil RF EMP/Phased Plasma/ Fusin x 4000 = 4 mil
Hurricane Hull = 28 mil Platinum Insurance = 11 mil
Total cost = 71 mil Insurance Payout = 37 mil
Effective loss = 34 mil(adding 3 Trimarks takes the loss to about 45 mil)
Bottom line is, T1 while being very cost effective comapred to T2 isn't anywhere near 'loss free'
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gamertrav
Blackwater USA Inc. Gentlemen's Club
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Posted - 2010.01.02 21:27:00 -
[677]
Edited by: gamertrav on 02/01/2010 21:29:33
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 11:03:13
Yeah, sure, some types of T2 ships are necessary in some circumstances, but they are mostly the combat support, not the mainstay//DPS of the fleet. I guess you could bring in a fleet of Zealots for DPS, but then again, wouldn't Apocalypses or Abbadons be better overall for that role most of the time ? Granted, not the best of examples, but you get the idea - you don't always absolutely need a very T2-heavy fleet when mostly-BSs will do just fine too.
Yes battleships work just fine. And those were even trimarked BSs, which are anything but "free"
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.02 21:33:00 -
[678]
Originally by: gamertrav Edited by: gamertrav on 02/01/2010 21:29:33
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 11:03:13
Yeah, sure, some types of T2 ships are necessary in some circumstances, but they are mostly the combat support, not the mainstay//DPS of the fleet. I guess you could bring in a fleet of Zealots for DPS, but then again, wouldn't Apocalypses or Abbadons be better overall for that role most of the time ? Granted, not the best of examples, but you get the idea - you don't always absolutely need a very T2-heavy fleet when mostly-BSs will do just fine too.
Yes battleships work just fine. And those were even trimarked BSs, which are anything but "free"
Oh don't mind Akita - he has issues with simple mathematics.
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Zarazaa
Scarlet Blood
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Posted - 2010.01.02 21:49:00 -
[679]
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Originally by: gamertrav Edited by: gamertrav on 02/01/2010 21:29:33
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 11:03:13
Yeah, sure, some types of T2 ships are necessary in some circumstances, but they are mostly the combat support, not the mainstay//DPS of the fleet. I guess you could bring in a fleet of Zealots for DPS, but then again, wouldn't Apocalypses or Abbadons be better overall for that role most of the time ? Granted, not the best of examples, but you get the idea - you don't always absolutely need a very T2-heavy fleet when mostly-BSs will do just fine too.
Yes battleships work just fine. And those were even trimarked BSs, which are anything but "free"
Oh don't mind Akita - he has issues with simple mathematics.
You should try to provide such things as arguments based on even wierder things called facts in your posts, but you keep spilling bitterness.. if you can't do beter, stop posting..
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.01.02 22:09:00 -
[680]
Originally by: Zarazaa You should try to provide such things as arguments based on even wierder things called facts in your posts, but you keep spilling bitterness.. if you can't do beter, stop posting..
http://www.eve-search.com/search/author/Lord%20XSiV
He's been spewing ever since he first wrote in eo forum. He's just an insignificant minion you can safely ignore. W/e activity he pulls out of his sleeve does not impact much the market as he claims. |
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.02 22:11:00 -
[681]
Edited by: Lord XSiV on 02/01/2010 22:15:44
Originally by: Zarazaa
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Originally by: gamertrav Edited by: gamertrav on 02/01/2010 21:29:33
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 11:03:13
Yeah, sure, some types of T2 ships are necessary in some circumstances, but they are mostly the combat support, not the mainstay//DPS of the fleet. I guess you could bring in a fleet of Zealots for DPS, but then again, wouldn't Apocalypses or Abbadons be better overall for that role most of the time ? Granted, not the best of examples, but you get the idea - you don't always absolutely need a very T2-heavy fleet when mostly-BSs will do just fine too.
Yes battleships work just fine. And those were even trimarked BSs, which are anything but "free"
Oh don't mind Akita - he has issues with simple mathematics.
You should try to provide such things as arguments based on even wierder things called facts in your posts, but you keep spilling bitterness.. if you can't do beter, stop posting..
Well that is the problem - I do post facts but the 'ultra super kool kid 3d glasses' you lemmings were given as part of your investors' package prevent you from seeing them. Or maybe it was the psychotropics they used to spike the koolaid at the opening party that prevent you lemmings from seeing the obvious.....
Techn is at what 29pu sell right now.
Funny thing is, it is the nanos that matter (since they are actually used in production) - they are down to 3.2k. Plat Tech seems stable but it isn't moving; mind you everyone I know had more than enough before dominion so all the movement can be attributed to the speculation crowd.
edit: and please mind xlopia - he has linked some very important background information about my posting habits. Things such as predicting the downfall of ASCN, outting various other scams and a bunch of general 'I told you so' statements over the years. Yes, truly bad things, evil things, mean things, things that they don't want the lemmings to know about.....
Oh and xlopia, might you please explain to the peons what a 'Pump and Dump' is seeing as you have that fancy schmancy Masters Degree in Business from some honorable educational institution somewhere in Europe. We wouldn't want to get it wrong and have the lemmings cry later....
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.02 22:14:00 -
[682]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 22:16:01
Originally by: Lord XSiV Well that is the problem - I do post facts but the 'ultra super kool kid 3d glasses' you lemmings were given as part of your investors' package prevent you from seeing them. Or maybe it was the psychotropics they used to spike the koolaid at the opening party that prevent you lemmings from seeing the obvious..... Techn is at what 29pu sell right now. Funny thing is, it is the nanos that matter (since they are actually used in production) - they are down to 3.2k. Plat Tech seems stable but it isn't moving; mind you everyone I know had more than enough before dominion so all the movement can be attributed to the speculation crowd.
Yes, you bumbling fools, you all fell for it ! FULL DISCLOSURE ! P.S. Lord XSiV is probably my alt.
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.02 22:22:00 -
[683]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 22:16:01
Originally by: Lord XSiV Well that is the problem - I do post facts but the 'ultra super kool kid 3d glasses' you lemmings were given as part of your investors' package prevent you from seeing them. Or maybe it was the psychotropics they used to spike the koolaid at the opening party that prevent you lemmings from seeing the obvious..... Techn is at what 29pu sell right now. Funny thing is, it is the nanos that matter (since they are actually used in production) - they are down to 3.2k. Plat Tech seems stable but it isn't moving; mind you everyone I know had more than enough before dominion so all the movement can be attributed to the speculation crowd.
Yes, you bumbling fools, you all fell for it ! FULL DISCLOSURE ! P.S. Lord XSiV is probably my alt.
Sure, I will pick Akita T up once you list her in the character bazaar so long as the price is reasonable. How long are you going to wait to quit after the market collapses?
Post a link for your skills as well. Just to be upfront (unlike yourself, I think honesty is something you can bargain with) you don't get any premium for your forum posting or propping up others scams.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.02 22:25:00 -
[684]
Originally by: Lord XSiV Post a link for your skills
Find it yourself, you are supposed to be me, remember ?
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.01.03 03:57:00 -
[685]
Originally by: Lord XSiV edit: and please mind xlopia - he has linked some very important background information about my posting habits. Things such as predicting the downfall of ASCN, outting various other scams and a bunch of general 'I told you so' statements over the years. Yes, truly bad things, evil things, mean things, things that they don't want the lemmings to know about.....
Oh and xlopia, might you please explain to the peons what a 'Pump and Dump' is seeing as you have that fancy schmancy Masters Degree in Business from some honorable educational institution somewhere in Europe. We wouldn't want to get it wrong and have the lemmings cry later....
Look kido, tell you what. First of all, your education background/your irl job/yer social status or the very fact that you are partnering w/ George Soros or even himself don't mean much here. Yer phd degree, handful of donation, very sharp legal knowledge, or whatever don't mean a s*** either.
In this small recycling section of EO forum, we, including your pity, meaningless self, are a bunch of internet spaceship junkies who are trying to bring up some wisdom/sarcasm about EO market on others face with analysis, numbers, sounding logics, excel spread sheets, or in-game financial activities. Unless you shows any of above and convince us, you are simply a buzzing fly to me which I can just smack in a wall and forget.
Thus, your godsend ability to "predict the downfall of ASCN, outting various other scams and a bunch of general 'I told you so' statements over the years" means less than a little unless you provide very sounding picture of how T2 market will shape up in the future.
Sames applies to Akita. If he screamed his lung out that Dysprom would sky-rocket after Dom patch, he would have been ridiculed more than he can count for the rest of his life. Everyone is in fair game for that matter.
I understand you have this burning hatred toward Akita because people care about what he says. If you want to have same or more amount of reputation, you simply need to convince us with pretty analysis, excel spread sheets or whatever you'd like to work with. Otherwise, you are simply a buzzing fly to me which I can just smack in a wall and forget.
Plus, I've met real successful figures in real world out there and they share same characteristics; they do rarely brag because their mere existence already shines so brightly. Seeing how hard you are trying to impress people w/ your irl activities, I suppose you live w/ your mum w/ no girlfriend. So in this very blessed, special days of new year, I feel generous that I wish you a good luck to find a decent job that get you outta there.
*I've got my ECE BS degree in UIUC. nothing hardly I can brag about but you asked me. |
Soldis
Minmatar Interstellar Brotherhood of Gravediggers Privateer Alliance
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Posted - 2010.01.03 04:21:00 -
[686]
Could someone beg CCP for a better price history?
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Eisonar
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Posted - 2010.01.03 08:28:00 -
[687]
So wait...was it all manipulation or not? 0.o
I haz a confuzzled.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2010.01.03 08:45:00 -
[688]
I think you should read akitas full disclosure as sarcasm.
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Eisonar
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Posted - 2010.01.03 08:59:00 -
[689]
Originally by: EvilCheez I think you should read akitas full disclosure as sarcasm.
That's what I thought (or, rather, hoped) was the case.
But I've been wrong before, so I thought I'd check.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.03 09:31:00 -
[690]
Originally by: Eisonar That's what I thought (or, rather, hoped) was the case.
I would have thought that, if nothing else, at least the reference to God owing me money would have been a dead giveaway
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Jagga Spikes
Minmatar Tribal Liberation Force
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Posted - 2010.01.03 16:12:00 -
[691]
:) personally, i think it was brilliant regardless of any conceivable way it resolves *bows*
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.04 17:19:00 -
[692]
If anybody wants to claim ANY of this is a scam in spite of it having turned into a community project a short while after the thread started since everything was clearly laid out in the open, they're free to provide proof to the contrary in a similar fashion (full disclosure of methods used to "prove" otherwise).
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.01.04 22:01:00 -
[693]
Of course a reduction of t2 ship building and sales was to be expected after dominion. Lots of uncertainity about prices and volumes was in the market.
But now it seems that ship sales are back on the track.
So kudos to Akita T playing the scary-card to make people sell some of their technetium stockpile in fear of a market crash while it was just a normal time of adjustment together with a correction of the initial overheated speculation. Nice play to get even more cheap tech.
Well done!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 00:27:00 -
[694]
I can't take credit for what others have done
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 05:57:00 -
[695]
Looking at the past 3 months. Specifically October 2009, which I would consider a month free of speculation influenced pricing and purchases of Technetium. I conclude that on average there were 380k units of Technetium sold daily, with some sporadic movement on singular days where the price fell enough to warrant large buy orders or had risen to warrant large sell-offs.
Using the rather conservative 400 moon model (300 known dotlan moons + unknown regions and incomplete scans) we can ascertain a Supply Ceiling of 970k daily units. October 2009 (our pre-patch model month) would be a roughly 40% push on total moon use. At the same time, the price average of sales in October 2009 was 2,450 isk.
Using the numbers from Akita's Dominion predictions we see an increase of use in Technetium, specifically nanotransistors. An increase originally thought to be 218%, a number I as a non-producer cannot confirm or deny.
When Dominion released, large pushes in buy orders for Technetium increased daily purchases to a 2 mil unit stable, with several days falling to 600k and rising to 4.5mil. When the price reached its zenith at 69,990 (beyond wild reporting, this was the highest sell price on market record), the total sold number of tech fell to just under a million. Figuring profit selling as part of this total figure one can determine that at 69,990 the price ceiling was reached, and all producer purchases of Technetium ceased.
If we assume that all moons are currently occupied and being run efficiently, we arrive at the conclusion that total supply will be exhausted every day, at that point the price should rise. Akita uses the theory that T2 production remains constant, that there are 400 moons, and that there is no elasticity to the T2 production market.
I contend that a 300% increase in technetium demand (worse case scenerio) would put a total strain on the market equal to that of 450 moons (a much more realistic moon estimate) and in turn offer a price of around 12k per unit. Technetium I do not feel will be the bottleneck of the market so much as we will see a basket of moon materials form a bottleneck with fluctuations between different materials as wars and market conditions change.
Up to this point, Akita has made a self-fulfilling prophecy due to the injection of large buy orders over the last 6 weeks, and his numbers were almost exact in a prediction sense. But I fear like several others have stated that when those interested in the market value or Technetium, not the production value get out of the buy and sell routine, the end result will be a healthy, competitive 12k isk per unit market with average daily sales of 900k to 1mil.
only time will tell.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 07:00:00 -
[696]
If you look at the month of July, it was a 700k average daily volume on Jita-traded Technetium (291 moons' worth), not just 390k (162 moons' worth) as in October. This is a pretty significant difference in traded volume without a heavy average price fluctuation. Determining the moon amount from any of that data would be a bit of a stretch, especially when a month-long average volume pretty much is almost double the other month's average.
Even if we could agree on what the actual average trade volume of some mineral (in particular Technetium) was, we would have the following problems: * a significant portion of it might have been re-traded instead of going directly from producers to manufacturers, but then again, we are sure that the Jita Technetium trade is pretty much the only market with any noticeable volume, all other empire regions combined barely register as a blip in comparison * a somewhat noticeable portion of the Technetium extraction might have been reacted into Platinum Technite "on the spot" rather than sold as Technetium, or even further reacted into something else, never actually reaching the market * also, a significant portion of Technetium could have (no, scratch that, certainly has) been stockpiled for later sale or later usage, or people could have simply not even bothered to move it for sale because it wasn't really worth it at that time * the less valuable a mineral was, the less likely it was for it to be moved away (especially UNprocessed, or less processed) from the extraction point to the resale market, but the curve for that is even more erratic to determine than a lot of other things that make more sense (see below) * and finally, the less valuable a moon mineral was, the less likely it was to even BE extracted in the first place, again, depending on total hauling distance required (why bother to even extract then haul technetium at 2k per m^3 or 144 mil per month per POS if you can move megacyte at 400k per m^3, extracted in several minutes of a heftier mining op) so even the actual extraction proportion is uncertain
On the other hand, even at perfect ME levels (which is hardly the case, especially after you consider invention consumption), just the Jita T2 market was gobbling up well over 10 mil of completely processed Technetium monthly. Sure, again, you can argue a big portion of those trades were actually resales (and you'd probably be right), and you could argue that some ships are mostly invented while others are mostly manufactured (and you'd be right again), and last but not least you could argue that the Jita T2 trade is not directly representative of the total T2 manufacture volume (still right). Thankfully, I never had to go against any of the above arguments
We could NOT determine any actual moon amounts (since all we knew for certain were RELATIVE needs, never any ABSOLUTE needs). The only thing we COULD certainly determine was which moons were more abundant compared to other moons (and roughly by how much), by working back from traded ship volumes to needed materials, then looking at historical prices.
On ONE front, we collated the most likely moon counts from various sources (dotlan, former and current occupants of various regions, etc). On the OTHER front, it was obvious that pre-Dominion and pre-effective-alchemy, the RELATIVE scarcity order went Dysprosium -> Promethium -> Technetium -> everything else. Then, after alchemy, it was obvious the scarcity went Dysprosium -> Promethium -> Chromium//Cadmium -> everything else (obviously from before, the 5th one would have had to be Technetium).
When plugging into the pre-Dominion sheet of rough T2 traded items the estimated moon numbers (for which RATIOS between them was relevant) both before and after alchemy became popular, the USAGE RATIOS quite nicely reflected the observed relative scarcity orders. Plugging in post-dominion build numbers, you all saw what happened.
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 07:09:00 -
[697]
Edited by: Lord XSiV on 05/01/2010 07:11:43
Originally by: Queen Athena
Up to this point, Akita has made a self-fulfilling prophecy due to the injection of large buy orders over the last 6 weeks, and his numbers were almost exact in a prediction sense. But I fear like several others have stated that when those interested in the market value or Technetium, not the production value get out of the buy and sell routine, the end result will be a healthy, competitive 12k isk per unit market with average daily sales of 900k to 1mil.
only time will tell.
Nah, I told it it last week, someone told it the week before and someone else will tell it this week. Quite frankly it is getting boring and eventually the lemmings will wake up and realize people are making a boatload off of them cycling to the point that they will just take what they can get (profit or minimal loss) and exit the market.
This scenario is the dread that Akita & Co. are trying desperately to avoid. As can be explained by their full on court press to question my credibility using various falsehoods, misdirections and generally contradictory statements, it is quite obvious that they are indeed functioning a full fledged 'Pump and Dump' scheme to prop up an investment scam that Akita has no intentions of paying investors back.
In the spirit of full disclosure, I made just over 6bn cycling technetium alone over the course of the weekend. This was due to the fact that I took advantage of people who know that Akita's math is wrong and were dumping stock to offset their initial investment in light of yet another person coming forward disclosing the truth. Once Akita came back online and 'whipped' his minions back in line to drive the price back up, I pocketed the difference. In fact, once I pointed out the nanotransistor market being missed out on, the speculation crowd moved there fairly quickly (that I made another 2-3bn on) to prop up the prices.
This cycle will continue each and every week, with moon producers benefiting greatly, so long as the market contains enough speculators to buy up the material they are bringing to market. This is one of the key points that 'Pump and Dump' schemes try to instill into their victims - by keeping the lemmings in the market as a buffer it will allow the operators more time to attract other victims, similar to a ponzi scheme.
Anyhow, as others begin to obviously see through the scheme, it will be more and more difficult to maintain. Once it becomes known that the supply of technetium from the over 720 moons producing it in eve can more than supply the demand, then the market will completely collapse onto itself, return to at or below pre-dominion prices due to the stockpiles that were hoarded based on speculation.
So long and thanks for all the fish....(err isk)
Lulz.
edit: Oh I see Akita has already posted something for damage control - I guess now he is crying about not knowing the true supply from moons and some other gibberish that makes no sense.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 07:15:00 -
[698]
You could argue that Technetium was heavily underreported or underused, but then again, it was the 3rd most valuable moon mineral at one time, so there couldn't have possibly been TOO many undiscovered//unused Technetium moons at THAT time, and I somehow doubt everybody magically forgot their existance in the following year.
Sure, the actual T2 trade volume could shrink or grow, and it would still not matter - all that really matters is relative amounts available vs relative amounts needed. SOME material will end up as bottleneck - the absolute best case scenario would be in case the bottleneck is more or less evenly shared with OTHER moon minerals. The only problem is, post-Dominion, the only other moon mineral that could possibly a bottleneck instead of Technetium is... NEODYMIUM, which at best, when Technetium was holdng on at around 6k per unit a long while back, it was trailing at barely 2k per unit, so if you want to use the "under-reported" or "under-used" cards anywhere on Technetium, you just HAVE to use them on Neodymium too, big time, even more than on Technetium. So no matter how you put it, it's still Technetium as "extraction-wise" bottleneck, even in the worst imaginable case scenario for Technetium it's still just about on par with Neodymium (highly, HIGHLY unlikely).
Basically, no matter how many T2 items get built, either a lot more or a lot less compared to pre-Dominion, and even if the manufacture ratios heavily shift (surprise : the most "desirable" T2 ships, those most likely to use invention so larger waste and larger tech usage actually were buffed more than other less desirable ones Technetium-and-Neodymium-wise ; so not THAT much chance of a heavy shift AGAINST the favor of Technetium in Dominion without CCP direct intervention), the long-term result is the same : after technetium stockpiles get used up, ALL T2 production gets "topped" by Technetium extraction potential, and when THAT happens, Technetium prices will do the same thing that pre-Dominion Dysprosium and Promethium prices have done -- they will gobble up the vast majority of the total production cost of T2 items, since, hey, bottleneck.
Now the only two questions are 1) how long until the stockpiles get exhausted and 2) at what price level and/or after how much time after a certain price level will CCP intervene ?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 07:21:00 -
[699]
Originally by: Lord XSiV I guess now he is crying about not knowing the true supply from moons and some other gibberish that makes no sense.
Absolute values of true supply from moons is irrelevant to the long-term price level -- it's only (somewhat) useful in determining HOW LONG until that price level is reached. THAT part is a big unknown, with estimates ranging anywhere from 3 months to more than a year, most likely between 6 and 9 months.
RATIOS of true supply from moons (relative scarcities) and build ratio needs (as expressed in moon minerals) are the only thing relevant to the long-term price. That much is certain beyond any shadow of a doubt - unless CCP does something before stockpiles are exhausted, Technetium becomes the most valuable moon mineral, taking over the vast majority of a ship's build cost, the way Dyspro+Prom used to before.
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Decoded
Expleo
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Posted - 2010.01.05 07:55:00 -
[700]
Originally by: Lord XSiV
verbal diarrhea
Mr. XSiV, What you have posted is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 07:59:00 -
[701]
Akita T, I do not want to sound condescending but did you just try and refute the 340k a day number by stating that 10mil units were being used per month? You do know what 10mil units a month is right?
On a side note I know for a fact that Technetium is more plentiful than any of the R64 moons, just from the numbers we already have. The July 700k numbers were like I stated before flukes in the market where prices justified large buy or sells, these were not sustained market trades.
You seem to also be confusing the difference between traded materials, and materials used for production. You entire model depends on all units traded being used for production, giving no room at all for the possibility of units traded for speculation or profit. Not every unit bought is consumed, and is thus recycled back into the market. That fact alone declares your end stability estimates null and void.
I know several people are running the numbers independently now, soon we should see their results, but in the end you will see that at your numbers there is simply not the elasticity you think there is. Production would grind to a halt at your end run numbers, and supply is greater than you think it is.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 08:41:00 -
[702]
Edited by: Akita T on 05/01/2010 08:42:32
Originally by: Queen Athena Akita T, I do not want to sound condescending but did you just try and refute the 340k a day number by stating that 10mil units were being used per month? You do know what 10mil units a month is right?
No, I merely said that the Jita-traded volume of T2 items used up 10 mil, and T2 ship manufacture is certainly NOT the exclusive domain of manufactured T2 ship "unloading", whereas we are CERTAIN it is the sole noteworthy Technetium unloading market. For all we now, EVE-wide, ships requiring 20 mil units of Technetium (277 moons' worth of production) could have been manufactured, it's just that only half of them (or less, due to resellers) actually made it on the Jita market... or there could be even more. We have no way of telling for sure, that's why absolute values are meaningless (especially moon mineral volumes traded absolute value), and we HAVE to focus on usage ratios (because that's the only way the minerals actually leave the economy in a non-returnable fashion) - at the most extreme, you could probably look at advanced material trade volume RATIOS, but independent analysts have claimed that looking at those almost perfectly mirrors (ratio-wise) the analysis of T2 item trade volume after breaking it down to initial moon minerals.
Quote: The July 700k numbers were like I stated before flukes in the market where prices justified large buy or sells, these were not sustained market trades.
Why should July 2009 have been radically different (as in, abnormal) from October 2009 as far as volumes traded went (to consider October the norm) ? Price levels for Technetium weren't radically different, yet there's a factor of 2 as far as volumes go.
Quote: You seem to also be confusing the difference between traded materials, and materials used for production. You entire model depends on all units traded being used for production, giving no room at all for the possibility of units traded for speculation or profit. Not every unit bought is consumed, and is thus recycled back into the market. That fact alone declares your end stability estimates null and void.
Actually, my entire model completely ignores moon material traded volumes (and also simple reaction traded volume), and only looks at the moon mineral prices alongside T2 item volumes traded (decomposed into RATIOS of moon minerals they're made out of).
Quote: On a side note I know for a fact that Technetium is more plentiful than any of the R64 moons, just from the numbers we already have.
I am also not disputing Technetium moons are more plentiful in absolute numbers compared to any of the R64 moons individually, quite the contrary. The only thing was comparing the (most likely // approximate) relative scarcities of materials before Dominion with regards to moon mineral price level after looking at consumption ratios (and checking that the most likely moon count RATIOS check out mineral-price-wise to see if the model is at least somewhat accurate), then plugging in the consumption ratios post-Dominion.
The absolute amount of manufactured T2 items might end up higher or lower compared to pre-Dominion levels, depending on actual Technetium moon counts, but compared to the most likely ratios of Technetium vs everything-else-that-might-be-scarce-after-Dominion, there would need to be a tremendous amount of Technetium compared to just about everything else in order for Technetium to NOT become eventually the new bottleneck.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 08:48:00 -
[703]
Edited by: Akita T on 05/01/2010 08:51:18
Quote: I know several people are running the numbers independently now, soon we should see their results, but in the end you will see that at your numbers there is simply not the elasticity you think there is. Production would grind to a halt at your end run numbers, and supply is greater than you think it is.
Actually, T2 item production could go up post-Dominion while Technetium is still the new bottleneck. See a few pages back. Let me find it and copy-paste it again...
Originally by: Akita T
01/12/2009 13:42:06 [...] Let's look at bottlenecks... BEFORE Dominion, the bottlenecks were dysprosium and promethium, with the sample using up an estimated 58% (give or take) of the global production potential. AFTER Dominion, the bottleneck will be mainly technetium, with the exact same sample using up now an estimated 68% of the global production potential, the next bottleneck being neodymium at around 48% of the global production potential. [...] These numbers are with a rough total technetium moon estimate of around 410, even if most likely that number is at around only 370.
There would have to be roughly 480 technetium moons in the game for the overall bottleneck in production to remain at the same level as before Dominion i.e. roughly 58% of total production (with technetium still the main bottleneck) so the same rough amounts of T2 goods would keep being manufactured. There would have to be roughly 590 technetium moons for technetium to become as scarce (relatively) as neodymium and share roughly the same unit prices, and in that case the number of T2 ships (and items in general) would be significantly larger (and therefore cheaper).
There you go - didn't fit in the previous post so moved it to a new post. In this case, "the sample" refers to the cross-section of monthly Jita trade of T2 items, decomposed into moon mineral make-up, when compared to the total moon count theoretical max production ratio estimates AND presumed moon amounts used in that ratio estimation.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 08:55:00 -
[704]
Akita, In July there were days of trade less than 200k, days with 2.5mil. Just as I said before, not all market trades are done with the intent to use the material. People like to make profit, as you have done from trading, holding and selling.
I cannot believe you did not factor in trades done for the sole purpose of resale. That alone destroys any projections you have for the future of Technetium.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 09:04:00 -
[705]
Originally by: Queen Athena I cannot believe you did not factor in trades done for the sole purpose of resale. That alone destroys any projections you have for the future of Technetium.
It simply does NOT MATTER how much of the Tech/Neo/Dysp/Prom is directly traded vs how much is just used and so on and so forth - those volumes are highly irregular, as you have yourself noted. The PRICE of each moon mineral however WILL eventually adjust in accordance to relative scarcity, you are guaranteed to get the right order of scarcity when you have a long period of build ratio stability (and raw build ratios have essentially remained practically unchanged ever since, well, the very beginning).
Also, see last edit in post above, the "in simpler terms" part.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 09:08:00 -
[706]
Edited by: Queen Athena on 05/01/2010 09:10:03
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Queen Athena I cannot believe you did not factor in trades done for the sole purpose of resale. That alone destroys any projections you have for the future of Technetium.
It simply does NOT MATTER how much of the Tech/Neo/Dysp/Prom is directly traded vs how much is just used and so on and so forth - those volumes are highly irregular, as you have yourself noted. The PRICE of each moon mineral however WILL eventually adjust in accordance to relative scarcity, you are guaranteed to get the right order of scarcity when you have a long period of build ratio stability (and raw build ratios have essentially remained practically unchanged ever since, well, the very beginning).
Also, see last edit in post above, the "in simpler terms" part.
You did your entire calculations based upon market trade volumes and you now state that trades which did not result in production do not matter? Trade volumes today are a perfect example of how much they do matter as production is down while volumes have sky-rocketed on speculation.
I am truly frightened at the way you came up with your post-patch predictions looking at the way you figure how the market works. For any production material, trades done for profit and not for production are an integral part of the market. I am just shocked sir as I had more faith in you than that.
I do not refute your demand for production of a single item pre and post patch. But your analysis of the total supply based on your numbers shakes me at my core. You sir forgot to include something you would have no way of determining.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 09:39:00 -
[707]
Originally by: Queen Athena You did your entire calculations based upon market trade volumes and you now state that trades which did not result in production do not matter? Trade volumes today are a perfect example of how much they do matter as production is down while volumes have sky-rocketed on speculation
My only concern was LONG-TERM PRICES (and not necessarily absolute prices, just price order) that would be reached if CCP doesn't change anything in T2 item production, where "long term" means "after all relevant stockpiles have been mostly exhausted and new moon mineral production becomes the limiting factor". However, since even the slightest difference in the bottleneck order will generate a huge price difference eventually (just look at Dyspro/Prom prices before), it's not hard to guess at the rough absolute value of the new bottlenecks.
Before invention, T2 blueprints were the determining factor in T2 item prices as bottleneck, and all moon minerals were worth a pittance, and there were sizable stockpiles of a lot of moon minerals. After invention became widely adopted, the vast majority of profit shifted over to moon minerals, with T2 BPO owners only being able to take advantage of the invention increased manufacture cost. It didn't happen overnight, just like it shouldn't have happened in this case either - prices reached the levels we now "know" when all stockpiles were exhausted and new moon mineral production became the bottleneck. Bottlenecks being new production of Dysprosium mainly, with Promethium close behind - almost ALL of it was being used up at roughly the same rate as it was being extracted, while the other moon minerals had growing stockpiles. And now, the bottleneck still remains moon minerals (as it will always be the case as long invention is still around), but the exact moon minerals that are the bottleneck WILL shift away from Dysprosium and Promethium, this is an absolute certainty. Eventually, the stockpiles of the new bottleneck (or bottlenecks) will run out, and THAT new production will become the limiting factor, and MOST of the component value of T2 items will be traced back to whatever that bottleneck will be.
Quote: I am truly frightened at the way you came up with your post-patch predictions looking at the way you figure how the market works. For any production material, trades done for profit and not for production are an integral part of the market. I am just shocked sir as I had more faith in you than that.
SHORT-TERM, yes, that it is relevant... very relevant, actually, as you can easily see from the way technetium has shifted gears the past few days. But again, in the long run, it is completely and utterly irrelevant. I have absolutely no idea how large the stockpiles are nor how much attention people that have them pay to the market, how greedy they are and how long they plan to wait until they start releasing some of them, I have no idea HOW the prices will PRECISELY evolve in the immediate future. I only know where prices will end up in the long enough run. And that is all that really matters.
Quote: I do not refute your demand for production of a single item pre and post patch. But your analysis of the total supply based on your numbers shakes me at my core. You sir forgot to include something you would have no way of determining.
And it was not included PRECISELY because I had absolutely no way of determining it with certainty, and because it is IRRELEVANT to very long-term analysis. I did not perform any serious short-term analysis.
My only minuscule way of even attempting any form of short-term analysis was in my attempt to estimate most likely technetium stockpiles and most likely time before their exhaustion, then assuming "baseline" prices (those NOT affected by speculation/manipulation, factors which again I have no way of predicting) will go up almost linearly to the estimated level in the estimated stockpile exhaustion duration.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 09:55:00 -
[708]
Akita you keep talking about stockpiles. I do not care about stockpiles as I am not looking at Technetium on January 31st, I am looking at what the price will be June 31st etc.
I am telling you that pre-dominion production demand for Technetium was 340k a day on average. Using your own numbers, post-dominion production demand will be less than 970k which is the total amount of the most conservative estimates of Technetium moons.
Using that as a base, after speculation dies down, Technetium will not be your bottleneck, a culmination of dysprosium, neo, promethium and Technetium will be the bottleneck. You grossly overestimated demand, and you grossly mis-calculated the total amount of pre-patch moons in use.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 10:22:00 -
[709]
Originally by: Queen Athena I am telling you that pre-dominion production demand for Technetium was 340k a day on average.
Now, see, this is your incorrect assumption, and I'll tell you why. The 340k a day on average was NOT the production demand - it was simply the Jita traded volume, nothing more, nothing less. Just think about it - does for instance the Evaporite Deposit Jita traded volume reflect the Evaporite Deposit amounts used in T2 item building across EVE ? You seriously think it COULD ?
Like I've already mentioned, the less a moon mineral is worth, the less likely it is for people to buy it for reactions from Jita in order to react at some (presumably lowsec) POS. Why haul Technetium from Jita when you can probably find a not-hotly-disputed Technetium moon close to where you are taking residence ? It is also more likely for people that extract it at all to just react it on the spot (if possible due to present moon minerals) or using nearby materials - why haul Platinum from Jita if you have a Platinum moon in the same system, or maybe a couple of jumps away across a relatively safe trade route ? All of this is made especially worse since Technetium is a highly localized resource (regions with Guristas NPCs), a vast majority of Technetium moons being in those regions rather than spread evenly across the EVE universe.
So, no, I can not take the 340k per day average in some pre-Dominion month (wasn't it 380k just a few post ago?) as a reliable number for any kind of calculations.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 10:29:00 -
[710]
Edited by: Queen Athena on 05/01/2010 10:31:48
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Queen Athena I am telling you that pre-dominion production demand for Technetium was 340k a day on average.
Now, see, this is your incorrect assumption, and I'll tell you why. The 340k a day on average was NOT the production demand - it was simply the Jita traded volume, nothing more, nothing less. Just think about it - does for instance the Evaporite Deposit Jita traded volume reflect the Evaporite Deposit amounts used in T2 item building across EVE ? You seriously think it COULD ?
Like I've already mentioned, the less a moon mineral is worth, the less likely it is for people to buy it for reactions from Jita in order to react at some (presumably lowsec) POS. Why haul Technetium from Jita when you can probably find a not-hotly-disputed Technetium moon close to where you are taking residence ? It is also more likely for people that extract it at all to just react it on the spot (if possible due to present moon minerals) or using nearby materials - why haul Platinum from Jita if you have a Platinum moon in the same system, or maybe a couple of jumps away across a relatively safe trade route ? All of this is made especially worse since Technetium is a highly localized resource (regions with Guristas NPCs), a vast majority of Technetium moons being in those regions rather than spread evenly across the EVE universe.
So, no, I can not take the 340k per day average in some pre-Dominion month (wasn't it 380k just a few post ago?) as a reliable number for any kind of calculations.
The amount of Technetium for sale in all of eve beyond Jita is less than one tenth of one percent of all Technetium sold. Good attempt to save face. I am not saying you did anything criminal here, I think you simply mis-calculated a few things.
We will find out soon when people bore of trading an over supplied material.
Edit: On the 340k number, your right it was 380k. That was my mistype. Thanks for pointing it out. See, we all make mistakes, yours is just multi-billions, mine was 1 mistyped number lol
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 10:33:00 -
[711]
Originally by: Queen Athena The amount of Technetium for sale in all of eve beyond Jita is less than one tenth of one percent of all Technetium sold.
And amount of Technetium that was being traded does not directly correlate to amount of Technetium effectively used in end-user products. That's what I keep saying.
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zigman123
Caldari Coffee Sipper's Club
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Posted - 2010.01.05 10:35:00 -
[712]
Originally by: Akita T
Before Dominion - Tech absolute demand roughly on par with Dysp/Prom, was 3rd most valuable moon min before alchemy pushed Chrom/Cadm up, Neodymium far lower all the time. After Dominion - needs roughly 3 times more Tech than Dysp/Prom. Not so hard to guess where this is going even without a thorough analysis.
Whoa, I know you didn't just base your numbers on the market restricted and highly manipulated numbers of Dysp/Prom.
Let us not forget that before Alchemy we also had people creating moon goo from thin air for years without any cost due to a game bug. And do not say that had no effect on things.
You seriously did not think this through if you based your Tech numbers on the simple math of 3x previous dyspro price.
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 10:36:00 -
[713]
As this keeps going on and on, more and more questions arise about the 'Akita Math'.....
Anyhow, take a look at the market and see how the floated orders have already been set up to try and drive the price up to 70k+. Problem is, it isn't working.
If Akita actually had a clue and truly, and I mean truly believed that technetium was indeed a bottleneck, he would be using his 'claimed' stockpile to take advantage of the 30-40k range right now by selling it all off. The snowball of those trying to get out would drive the price down to a point where he could easily pick up most of it at a fraction of the cost he has in place right now. Then when the price went up to his 'predicted' levels he would make yet another killing.
So why isn't he doing this? Any smart trader with that much leverage on a high demand market wouldn't hesitate to do so. Well for one of 2 reasons:
1. He doesn't have a stockpile worth mentioning because his bond was a scam to begin with. 2. He doesn't believe his own math as now people have brought legitimate doubts that he is now personally accepting.
So for a moment lets consider Akita to be a person with some honor and discard #1. In #2 he has already indicated in several posts that he is now doubting his assumptions when it came to supply. He relied upon another third party, that has no affiliation to CCP nor could verify any of the information, for the supply assumptions and neglected to other significant impacts on supply which essentially discredits his entire theory that technetium is some sort of bottleneck.
Now don't take my word for it, just do the math yourself. Also consider that if it was such a game breaking issue hen CCP would have jumped in right away and corrected it. But no, you see they have this guy, with a phd in economics who besides knowing far more about math than Akita ever possibly could, has access to the ACTUAL numbers for supply and demand. Now I know there isn't a lot of trust for CCP and most of you think they are clowns, but the reality is they are smarter than your entire collective and would know exactly what is going on. Some conspiracy theorists would jump up and say 'Well CCP wants to limit t2!@@!1!111@!@!', well actually they don't since they fully support invention.
Anyhow it is getting a bit tiring having to constantly point out the obvious and those who are either part of the Akita & Co. 'Pump and Dump' Propaganda crew or have drank way too much of the special koolaid refusing to actually accept that which is so blatantly obvious. Maybe the ignorant (Akita & Co. supporters) should just suffer while the rest of us who can see right through the scheme continue to take advantage of the speculation, continue to manipulate it to our whim and ultimately laugh at you when it collapses.
It isn't like we didn't try to warn you either.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 10:40:00 -
[714]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 05/01/2010 10:36:47
Originally by: Queen Athena The amount of Technetium for sale in all of eve beyond Jita is less than one tenth of one percent of all Technetium sold.
And amount of Technetium that was being traded does not directly correlate to amount of Technetium effectively used in end-user products. That's what I keep saying.
P.S. However, PRICE of moon minerals does correlate to how much of a bottleneck a moon mineral is (or rather said, how much excess of it is around). Also, the amounts of traded T2 items does correlate to amounts of used moon minerals.
Ummm no sir, That is what I have been trying to tell you. You did not account for that in your demand estimates pre-patch. I am having serious doubts about you right now.
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 10:46:00 -
[715]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Lord XSiV I guess now he is crying about not knowing the true supply from moons and some other gibberish that makes no sense.
Absolute values of true supply from moons is irrelevant to the long-term price level
I just read that after I finished my last post.
If you seriously think anyone more intelligent than a peanut is to believe that statement then you truly believe in making decisions that require human stupidity.
After you making that statement it is now even more clear beyond any doubt that you have no idea what you are talking about.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 10:58:00 -
[716]
Edited by: Akita T on 05/01/2010 11:02:15
Originally by: zigman123 Whoa, I know you didn't just base your numbers on the market restricted and highly manipulated numbers of Dysp/Prom.
Technetium will be far, far easier to restrict and manipulate, since the moons are extremely clustered, whereas Dysp/Prom were relatively well-spread (compared to Tech anyway). If anything, a big portion of Tech production is already being controlled by a small number of people, and a large disruption to production capabilities is actually very likely. Whoever will control the Tech moons will have had to invest some serious backing into it, and you can bet they will want to get as much as it's possibly worth out of it, the same way before whoever owned Dysp/Prom moons did.
Quote: Let us not forget that before Alchemy we also had people creating moon goo from thin air for years without any cost due to a game bug. And do not say that had no effect on things.
That exploit only went unchecked for a relatively short while after it became notorious enough to cause large percentages of "duped" materials vs regularly generated ones - when it was ramped up to such big levels as to get enough complaints, CCP eventually took notice and killed it a couple of months later. Shortly after it was killed, Dysp/Prom prices spiked like crazy in response.
Quote: You seriously did not think this through if you based your Tech numbers on the simple math of 3x previous dyspro price.
No, it was not BASED on that. I also never said "3x previous dyspro price". Read again. I said USAGE. Not price.
Extreme case scenarios of moon counts (least/most favourable) would put Technetium anywhere between 120k and 240k ISK per unit long term, with more reasonable estimates price level somewhere around 180-200k. That's actually pretty much the same as recent Dysprosium price levels, not x3 of that. Obviously, Dysprosium and Promethium prices will totally kick the bucket to negligible levels. Neodymium might end up anywhere between 25k and 50k per unit, Platinum between 5k and 8k per unit, everything else below 5k per unit.
Originally by: Lord XSiV If Akita actually had a clue and truly, and I mean truly believed that technetium was indeed a bottleneck, he would be using his 'claimed' stockpile to take advantage of the 30-40k range right now by selling it all off. The snowball of those trying to get out would drive the price down to a point where he could easily pick up most of it at a fraction of the cost he has in place right now. Then when the price went up to his 'predicted' levels he would make yet another killing.
So why isn't he doing this?
The answer is simple. LAZINESS. I can't be arsed to keep babysitting orders in Jita. I mostly buy from sell orders and I mostly sell to buy orders.
Originally by: Queen Athena Ummm no sir, That is what I have been trying to tell you. You did not account for that in your demand estimates pre-patch. I am having serious doubts about you right now.
Giving you the benefit of the doubt, EXPLAIN to me as if I am an idiot why exactly you are right about that but I am not.
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 11:01:00 -
[717]
Originally by: Akita T
Quote: Let us not forget that before Alchemy we also had people creating moon goo from thin air for years without any cost due to a game bug. And do not say that had no effect on things.
That exploit only went unchecked for a relatively short while after it became notorious enough to cause large percentages of "duped" materials vs regularly generated ones - when it was ramped up to such big levels as to get enough complaints, CCP eventually took notice and killed it a couple of months later. Shortly after it was killed, Dysp/Prom prices spiked like crazy in response.
You seriously don't have a clue do you.
Wow, and people think I am out to lunch.
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Reem Fairchild
Minmatar Military Research and Manufacturing Corp.
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Posted - 2010.01.05 11:02:00 -
[718]
Edited by: Reem Fairchild on 05/01/2010 11:03:56
Originally by: Queen Athena
Ummm no sir, That is what I have been trying to tell you. You did not account for that in your demand estimates pre-patch. I am having serious doubts about you right now.
You don't have to look at the sales volumes of Technetium at all to estimate what the demand was, and he already told you above that he didn't base his estimate on the sales volume. Why do you keep repeating the same thing?
Originally by: Akita T this whole game is just me playing with myself
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 11:06:00 -
[719]
Edited by: Akita T on 05/01/2010 11:19:37
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Originally by: Akita T
Quote: Let us not forget that before Alchemy we also had people creating moon goo from thin air for years without any cost due to a game bug. And do not say that had no effect on things.
That exploit only went unchecked for a relatively short while after it became notorious enough to cause large percentages of "duped" materials vs regularly generated ones - when it was ramped up to such big levels as to get enough complaints, CCP eventually took notice and killed it a couple of months later. Shortly after it was killed, Dysp/Prom prices spiked like crazy in response.
You seriously don't have a clue do you.
Wow, and people think I am out to lunch.
http://ccp.vo.llnwd.net/o2/devblog/img/10feb/fig4.jpg (Linkage)
Blog : www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=626 (Linkage)
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 11:17:00 -
[720]
Edited by: Lord XSiV on 05/01/2010 11:35:18 Edited by: Lord XSiV on 05/01/2010 11:34:23 Edited by: Lord XSiV on 05/01/2010 11:33:17
Originally by: Reem Fairchild Edited by: Reem Fairchild on 05/01/2010 11:03:56
Originally by: Queen Athena
Ummm no sir, That is what I have been trying to tell you. You did not account for that in your demand estimates pre-patch. I am having serious doubts about you right now.
You don't have to look at the sales volumes of Technetium at all to estimate what the demand was, and he already told you above that he didn't base his estimate on the sales volume. Why do you keep repeating the same thing?
Because he is stating factual numbers whereas Akita used made up ones?
Seriously, when are you people going to get it. Either that or go retake grade 2 again for some simple math skills.
edit: @ Akita - too bad you don't understand how to read the graph, or weren't around long enough to know how long and how much the exploit was taken advantage of....I guess a few titans, tons of faction gear, a tourny here or there and a fairly nice t2 bpo collection aren't all that much in the grand scheme of things.
But you would know that if you had a clue. But to summarize for the 'special' people out there, 3 years is a bit longer than a couple of months....
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 11:45:00 -
[721]
Originally by: Reem Fairchild Edited by: Reem Fairchild on 05/01/2010 11:03:56
Originally by: Queen Athena
Ummm no sir, That is what I have been trying to tell you. You did not account for that in your demand estimates pre-patch. I am having serious doubts about you right now.
You don't have to look at the sales volumes of Technetium at all to estimate what the demand was, and he already told you above that he didn't base his estimate on the sales volume. Why do you keep repeating the same thing?
The reason I had to state this was Akita stated that was his argument, which is false. It was my argument from the beginning. Akita was the one who tried to claim market trades for profit and not production are irrelevant. I do not like when people cannot man up to their mistakes, therefor I feel obligated to point out that he tried to steal my talking point.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 11:59:00 -
[722]
Originally by: Lord XSiV Because he is stating factual numbers whereas Akita used made up ones?
Originally by: Lord XSiV Because he is stating factual numbers whereas Akita used made up ones?
"There's 9 oranges on the counter" "Yeah, be bought a total of 15 fruit and put them on the table" "No, I said, there are n-i-n-e oranges on the counter !" "Yeah, I know, but I don't care how many oranges there are on the counter, I'm looking at total fruits" Lord XSiV : "Ha, told you, Akita is making numbers up, there ARE just 9 oranges on the table !" "Ooo-raaaan-ges" "..."
Quote: Akita - too bad you don't understand how to read the graph
First "exploit" POSes up summer of 2007, negligible numbers. No significant numbers until February 2008, when exploited POSes started increasing. Exploited POSes only started to have a noticeable effect ON THE MARKET by the summer of 2008. In the autumn of 2008, the operations finally reached worrying levels, and their attempts to shove the products on the market became obvious enough for people to start asking questions and pressure CCP. Early December 2008, they got nuked and banned. The really problematic time period only lasted around 3-4 months, and the market jerked back overcompensating almost immediately after those extra supply routes were destroyed. There was simply too little time to generate lasting damage to the market.
Quote: or weren't around long enough to know how long and how much the exploit was taken advantage of....I guess a few titans, tons of faction gear, a tourny here or there and a fairly nice t2 bpo collection aren't all that much in the grand scheme of things. But you would know that if you had a clue.
No, they are NOT much in the grand scheme of things. The money they ACTUALLY made JUST from selling their duped stuff ("6 to 12 trillion ISK") is the equivalent of one month's worth of 500-1000 Dysprosium extraction POSes at the peak of Dysprosium prices. So no, not that much in the grand scheme of things, not that much at all. A huge metric truckload for the few people involved, sure, but not much overall.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:14:00 -
[723]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Reem Fairchild
Originally by: Queen Athena Ummm no sir, That is what I have been trying to tell you. You did not account for that in your demand estimates pre-patch. I am having serious doubts about you right now.
You don't have to look at the sales volumes of Technetium at all to estimate what the demand was, and he already told you above that he didn't base his estimate on the sales volume. Why do you keep repeating the same thing?
The reason I had to state this was Akita stated that was his argument, which is false. It was my argument from the beginning. Akita was the one who tried to claim market trades for profit and not production are irrelevant. I do not like when people cannot man up to their mistakes, therefor I feel obligated to point out that he tried to steal my talking point.
When did I ever state that Technetium TRADE VOLUMES ever could have possibly entered into my argument when it came to the calculations of usage and therefore long-term price ? Also, I didn't claim "market trades for profit and not production are irrelevant", I simply claimed that ALL trade VOLUMES of moon minerals are irrelevant, and that only their PRICES are relevant in any way, shape or form for this analysis' purpose - and not even directly relevant, but only as a "scarcity rank" indication.
All bottleneck analysis is made solely on the basis of moon mineral prices (just as a confirmation of rough moon ratio accuracy), estimated moon count RATIOS (gathered from as many sources as publicly available, some not-so-public sources and extrapolation) and last but not least since it's the most relevent one, on the "basket of T2 items" moon mineral RATIO breakdown, all of it done in 3 separate sets : pre-exploit-and-alchemy-popularity, post-exploit-pre-Dominion, post-Dominion.
Each and every instance in which any "raw" moon mineral trade volumes are even mentioned AT ALL are in side-discussions as to what a trade volume MIGHT be considered "normal" post-Dominion. So what exactly do I have to "man up" about anyway ?
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Reem Fairchild
Minmatar Military Research and Manufacturing Corp.
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:22:00 -
[724]
Originally by: Queen Athena
The reason I had to state this was Akita stated that was his argument, which is false. It was my argument from the beginning. Akita was the one who tried to claim market trades for profit and not production are irrelevant. I do not like when people cannot man up to their mistakes, therefor I feel obligated to point out that he tried to steal my talking point.
No, you misunderstood what he had done with his calculations to begin with, and when he pointed out that he doesn't think the sales volume by itself is terribly relevant (in other words, that it isn't what he is basing his argument on) you say: "no that's what I was telling you".
This whole debate is meaningless though. The fact of the matter is, you now need a lot less of the former bottleneck minerals for tech 2 production and you need a lot more of certain other minerals. Those other minerals (Technetium and Neodymium, mostly) are likely to be the new bottleneck minerals. If not now, then at least later down the road as the tech 2 market continues to grow. That is, unless CCP does something about it.
Originally by: Akita T this whole game is just me playing with myself
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:32:00 -
[725]
"I on the other hand am predicting a complete collapse and that tech will go down to 1500 pu. As such I have placed an order in Jita for that amount just so I can say that I actually back what I am saying." (Lord XSiV)
Hey, Lord XSiV! Where's our daily tech price report? Don't worry, I'll do it for you.
Sell: 38k Buy: 34-35k
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:37:00 -
[726]
Originally by: RAW23 "I on the other hand am predicting a complete collapse and that tech will go down to 1500 pu. As such I have placed an order in Jita for that amount just so I can say that I actually back what I am saying." (Lord XSiV)
Hey, Lord XSiV! Where's our daily tech price report? Don't worry, I'll do it for you.
Sell: 38k Buy: 34-35k
Good boy. Now can you take out the trash as well?
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:38:00 -
[727]
Originally by: RAW23 "I on the other hand am predicting a complete collapse and that tech will go down to 1500 pu. As such I have placed an order in Jita for that amount just so I can say that I actually back what I am saying." (Lord XSiV)
Hey, Lord XSiV! Where's our daily tech price report? Don't worry, I'll do it for you.
Sell: 38k Buy: 34-35k
Not that I like Lord XsiV's particular brand of posting style, in his defense a large portion of Technetium Moons are currently or just leaving reinforced at the moment as the Russians just swept through low sec and NPC 0.0 taking them out one at a time.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:41:00 -
[728]
Originally by: Queen Athena [...]a large portion of Technetium Moons are currently or just leaving reinforced at the moment as the Russians just swept through low sec and NPC 0.0 taking them out one at a time.
It can only get worse the coming weeks, fresh-supply-wise... Thankfully there's truckloads of stockpiles. ...or so the majority seems to believe.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:43:00 -
[729]
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Originally by: RAW23 "I on the other hand am predicting a complete collapse and that tech will go down to 1500 pu. As such I have placed an order in Jita for that amount just so I can say that I actually back what I am saying." (Lord XSiV)
Hey, Lord XSiV! Where's our daily tech price report? Don't worry, I'll do it for you.
Sell: 38k Buy: 34-35k
Good boy. Now can you take out the trash as well?
Hehe. That was quite funny actually. I'll give you a point for that one.
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:43:00 -
[730]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: RAW23 "I on the other hand am predicting a complete collapse and that tech will go down to 1500 pu. As such I have placed an order in Jita for that amount just so I can say that I actually back what I am saying." (Lord XSiV)
Hey, Lord XSiV! Where's our daily tech price report? Don't worry, I'll do it for you.
Sell: 38k Buy: 34-35k
Not that I like Lord XsiV's particular brand of posting style, in his defense a large portion of Technetium Moons are currently or just leaving reinforced at the moment as the Russians just swept through low sec and NPC 0.0 taking them out one at a time.
Where do you think I got my numbers for technetium moons from? :)
And don't worry about being associated with me. I don't like anyone. Known fact. I am also mean, evil and in the infamous words of SamuraiJack, 'should be castrated with a cattle prod'....
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:53:00 -
[731]
Originally by: Lord XSiV Where do you think I got my numbers for technetium moons from? :)
Let me guess - your friendly monopoly-takeover-crew informed you there are exactly 893 mineable Technetium moons in the entire game ?
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.05 12:58:00 -
[732]
Edited by: RAW23 on 05/01/2010 12:58:33
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: RAW23 "I on the other hand am predicting a complete collapse and that tech will go down to 1500 pu. As such I have placed an order in Jita for that amount just so I can say that I actually back what I am saying." (Lord XSiV)
Hey, Lord XSiV! Where's our daily tech price report? Don't worry, I'll do it for you.
Sell: 38k Buy: 34-35k
Not that I like Lord XsiV's particular brand of posting style, in his defense a large portion of Technetium Moons are currently or just leaving reinforced at the moment as the Russians just swept through low sec and NPC 0.0 taking them out one at a time.
"I on the other hand am predicting a complete collapse and that tech will go down to 1500 pu. As such I have placed an order in Jita for that amount just so I can say that I actually back what I am saying." (Lord XSiV)
Stupid Russians! Haven't they heard the word of the lord? Tech moons are worthless! Worthless, I say!
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 13:01:00 -
[733]
You guys are so easy to lead along that it isn't funny anymore.
Seriously, don't quit your day job.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 13:02:00 -
[734]
Originally by: Lord XSiV You guys are so easy to lead along that it isn't funny anymore. Seriously, don't quit your day job.
Brilliant, now you can't even realize when people are LAUGHING AT YOU ?
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.05 13:08:00 -
[735]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Lord XSiV You guys are so easy to lead along that it isn't funny anymore. Seriously, don't quit your day job.
Brilliant, now you can't even realize when people are LAUGHING AT YOU ?
Well seeing as it is coming from you and your 'Pump and Dump' propaganda crew, it generates the same response as if a couple of 6 year olds were laughing at me.
Opps, I might have insulted the intelligence of some 6 years olds.
More importantly, when are you planning to take a math class? Soon I hope.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.05 13:10:00 -
[736]
Originally by: Lord XSiV a couple of 6 year olds were laughing at me
I bet that happens often...
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oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2010.01.05 13:54:00 -
[737]
This has turned in to the most unproductive discussion ever seen on the eve o forums. The chips are down, let's just wait and find out what will happen. x |
ALCAs Kopiermaus
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Posted - 2010.01.05 14:09:00 -
[738]
Originally by: oniplE This has turned in to the most unproductive discussion ever seen on the eve o forums. The chips are down, let's just wait and find out what will happen.
^^ This basically
Lord has moved from verbal ************ to verbal diarrhoea
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McCRAZY
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Posted - 2010.01.05 18:12:00 -
[739]
i just took a little trip around a bunch of the low sec tech moons i could track down and surprise surprise someone with some very big guns has put them all into reinforced, . . . i guess someone got the message from this thread, great intel akita.
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Juliette Leblanc
Gallente
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Posted - 2010.01.05 19:13:00 -
[740]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 02/01/2010 11:03:13
Yeah, sure, some types of T2 ships are necessary in some circumstances, but they are mostly the combat support, not the mainstay//DPS of the fleet. I guess you could bring in a fleet of Zealots for DPS, but then again, wouldn't Apocalypses or Abbadons be better overall for that role most of the time ? Granted, not the best of examples, but you get the idea - you don't always absolutely need a very T2-heavy fleet when mostly-BSs will do just fine too.
No. A good fleet of shield buffered DPS fitted zealots with support from scimitars is a pretty good counter to a fleet of BS.
In big fights, however, things are different: capitals are involved. And the fleets are no more "specialized" but much more complex with dictors and bombers playing a very important role, nowadays. And BSes are going to be used in those fleets (as well as many more t1, t2 and cap ships).
Originally by: CCP Prism X In New Eden, EVE wins you.
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Lonely Island
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Posted - 2010.01.05 20:15:00 -
[741]
Originally by: McCRAZY i just took a little trip around a bunch of the low sec tech moons i could track down and surprise surprise someone with some very big guns has put them all into reinforced, . . . i guess someone got the message from this thread, great intel akita.
Yeah I was flying around in placid a while back, noticed that Danish core X13 from IT alliance had taken a tech moon off the local pirates and put up their own pos. I guess ex-Bob are planning on controlling the t2 market in the near future :)
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raukosen
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Posted - 2010.01.05 22:20:00 -
[742]
The main thing that held back HAC fleets was the AoE DD. Now that it's gone you can expect to see more of them
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2010.01.06 05:10:00 -
[743]
now we just need "hulkageddon" to be a huge success and we'll be back over 40K
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 06:56:00 -
[744]
Originally by: raukosen The main thing that held back HAC fleets was the AoE DD. Now that it's gone you can expect to see more of them
All sounds pretty damn good for Technetium
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev now we just need "hulkageddon" to be a huge success and we'll be back over 40K
Looks like it's going back there in a few days even without Hulkageddon
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2010.01.06 12:30:00 -
[745]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: raukosen The main thing that held back HAC fleets was the AoE DD. Now that it's gone you can expect to see more of them
All sounds pretty damn good for Technetium
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev now we just need "hulkageddon" to be a huge success and we'll be back over 40K
Looks like it's going back there in a few days even without Hulkageddon
it's only 500 tech per hulk, so unless my evil little event miraculously kills every hulk in eve, i doubt it will be noticable.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.06 13:13:00 -
[746]
I just went through the market at Jita at 1300, January 6th.
Currently there are 7,295,000 units of Technetium for sale. 7.3mil units actually in people's hangers that they are trying to get rid of. At the same time there is less than a quarter of that number of buy orders (including some ridiculous 1 isk orders).
Do you honestly think the market can hold water at 35k for long with 7.3mil unsold units waiting for buyers? This is proof that at least 75% of the price of Technetium is due to over-speculation. I hold to my long term 12k isk per unit prediction long term. You would have to be a fool to not see that there is 5 days worth of trades (at exaggerated trade amounts) sitting on the market with no buyers.
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Soldis
Minmatar Interstellar Brotherhood of Gravediggers Privateer Alliance
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Posted - 2010.01.06 13:42:00 -
[747]
Exactly, read the market graph, demand isn't there, it's all speculation driven, and it looks like it will go down again in the short-term.
Remember that from mid-january to march break, T2 sales plummet. Save your money to scoop up tech at 15k for when the spike comes back in April.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 13:49:00 -
[748]
With nanotransistor towers earning roughly 3 bil ISK per month with the current prices...
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.06 13:58:00 -
[749]
Originally by: Akita T With nanotransistor towers earning roughly 3 bil ISK per month with the current prices...
That has nothing to do with the large quantity of Technetium for sale on the market stranded by a price that no one wants to buy at. The entire T2 chain from Technetium to Nanotransistors has been manipulated out of line with market price. Supply will rule the day my friend, it always does and Technetium will fall.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 15:12:00 -
[750]
Edited by: Akita T on 06/01/2010 15:15:36
Just because it's on the market doesn't mean nobody wants to buy it at that price. In fact, the volume traded is significant, and the price is slowly rising. It just means there's far more in stockpiles than it's being consumed, which comes as absolutely not a bit of a surprise.
If anything, what surprises me is that there's not MORE of it up on the market, which can only mean the vast majority of people holding stockpiles of Technetium is actually waiting for much better prices first... hmm, I guess that's not much of a surprise either, is it ?
P.S. You wanted to say "demand rules the day", didn't you ? Because right now, as long as huge stockpiles exist, the supply is not a problem, and prices don't go TOO far up. Sure, after those stockpiles are gone, indeed "supply rules the day", in which case, hello insane Technetium prices.
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Soldis
Minmatar Interstellar Brotherhood of Gravediggers Privateer Alliance
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Posted - 2010.01.06 15:24:00 -
[751]
Originally by: Akita T Sure, after those stockpiles are gone, indeed "supply rules the day", in which case, hello insane Technetium prices.
Why? Will moons have stopped making them? If anything, because of the short surge in price for technet, more people have started mining them, if anything, expect OVERSUPPLY in the following months.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 15:29:00 -
[752]
Edited by: Akita T on 06/01/2010 15:34:02
Originally by: Soldis
Originally by: Akita T Sure, after those stockpiles are gone, indeed "supply rules the day", in which case, hello insane Technetium prices.
Why? Will moons have stopped making them? If anything, because of the short surge in price for technet, more people have started mining them, if anything, expect OVERSUPPLY in the following months.
By your very same logic, Dysprosium should have had a very low price pre-Dominion.
We already HAVE an oversupply, in the form of pre-Dominion stockpiles (afterall, Technetium WAS the 3rd most expensive moon mineral less than a year ago, and only fell to 5th place after alchemy picked up the pace) - once those stockpiles are gone, the only new sources are the moons, which can't keep up even if all are mined in full once T2 production gets back in full gear.
P.S. You know what ? If you have technetium, sell it, sell it all now ! If you have a technetium moon, negotiate for somebody to buy it from you ! Get out of the way as fast as possible because it'll CRASH (as soon as enough scaredy-cats get the fear going). Makes the rest of us that are very confident in the future of Technetium able to buy up cheaper stocks and resell it to you in a few months at several times the price we bought it.
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Soldis
Minmatar Interstellar Brotherhood of Gravediggers Privateer Alliance
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Posted - 2010.01.06 15:33:00 -
[753]
Edited by: Soldis on 06/01/2010 15:35:09
Originally by: Akita T
By your very same logic, Dysprosium should have had a very low price pre-Dominion.
WRONG, we have a much bigger supply of tech than dyspro, it's not even comparable!
Originally by: Akita T We already HAVE an oversupply, in the form of pre-Dominion stockpiles (afterall, Technetium WAS the 3rd most expensive moon mineral less than a year ago, and only fell to 5th place after alchemy picked up the pace) - once those stockpiles are gone, the only new sources are the moons, which can't keep up even if all are mined in full.
This is opinion, forgive me not trusting someone I already called a manipulating liar. Show us the numbers.
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Clair Bear
Ursine Research and Production
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Posted - 2010.01.06 15:35:00 -
[754]
Originally by: Akita T once T2 production gets back in full gear.
This is the key. If t2 production gets back in full gear. With prices on t1 battleships under insurance payout the gulf between blobbing people with mountains of t1 battleships vs roaming in small, expensive HACs is gigantic. All that needs to happen is for killboards to adjust efficiency statistics by using after-insurance pricing for hulls and you'll see people abandoning t2 in droves.
When HACs were selling for 200M or so the amounts of moon goo used were relatively small. At a "sky's the limit" scenario moon goo usage approaches zero.
I haven't produced any cruiser or smaller t2 hulls since my last batch of falcons pre-nerf. Won't be long until a few other people get calculators and figure out there's a lots more money in producing ... other things. And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 15:39:00 -
[755]
Edited by: Akita T on 06/01/2010 15:41:43
Originally by: Soldis WRONG, we have a much bigger supply of tech than dyspro, it's not even comparable!
You also have a shift in DEMAND RATIO of Dyspro/Prom-vs-Tech from 1:1 pre-Dominion to 1:3 now.
Quote: This is opinion. Show us the numbers.
You mean, the umpteenth time the numbers were posted in this very thread doesn't count ? Nor the umpteenth-1 time ? Nor any of the previous ones ? Do we really have to keep reposting them every single page because some people can't be bothered to read something they criticize first ?
Originally by: Clair Bear
Originally by: Akita T once T2 production gets back in full gear.
This is the key.
Once price levels of dyspro/prom hit rock bottom and stay there, and once all related advanced materials stabilize too, the corresponding components following suit, then the stage will be set for T2 production to not just return to former levels, but (at least for a short time) surpass it.
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Kalexander
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Posted - 2010.01.06 15:56:00 -
[756]
Stability may never really come, at least not under the terms of your speculation. You do of course, realize that in all your disclaimers so i'm not trying to tell you something you don't know.
All it takes is a very real thing like an announcement for those instanced comet plexes you'll be able to siphon your own random moon goo out of like an asteroid and the definition of stability changes.
My prediction is that by the 6 months or so time it will take for the tech market to come to the realizations you've predicted, the "big picture" will look a lot different than the constants you've assumed things under now. Nevertheless, a fortune can still be made.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 16:06:00 -
[757]
Originally by: Kalexander All it takes is a very real thing like an announcement for those instanced comet plexes you'll be able to siphon your own random moon goo out of like an asteroid and the definition of stability changes.
True, but then again, that can only end in two ways, depending on the exact implementation and on the pre-nerfed status of that new addition (remember Alchemy? how about the first days of T3?) One, if CCP does it their usual way (heavily pre-nerfed, either by inability to select desired moongoo, or by low extraction rates, or by scarcity of desirable moongoo in easily locatable comets), it will be a pretty long time until it really means anything at all for the moon extraction business. Two, if they do it their "other" usual way (overcompensation), EACH AND EVERY moon mineral will crash and burn, not just Technetium, and the only people that will still actually make decent ISK out of this will be the people that react stuff.
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.06 17:54:00 -
[758]
Edited by: Lord XSiV on 06/01/2010 17:54:41 Update since my last post in this thread...
Akita continues to show that he has no clue in regards to actual supply of techn related items. No big surprise there.
So who is going to get the ball rolling on the 'manipulate the manipulators' event this weekend? I have something else better to do this weekend so I will preset my buy order in advance. A word of advice, the more virulent and frenzied you whip up the Akits & Co. 'Pump and Dump' propaganda crew the greater the swings will be and hence the larger profit. See if you can beat the 37% I got last week.
Go team go!
On a side note for those drooling about the numbers, using Akita's math and according to current market price, there would only be 4 techn moons producing in eve. Well 4.267 but we all know you can't have a fraction of a whole!
Lulz.
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oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:07:00 -
[759]
Originally by: Lord XSiV On a side note for those drooling about the numbers, using Akita's math and according to current market price, there would only be 4 techn moons producing in eve. Well 4.267 but we all know you can't have a fraction of a whole!
Can you please show the math/formula on how you got this number? x |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:12:00 -
[760]
Originally by: Lord XSiV Akita continues to show that he has no clue in regards to actual supply of techn related items.
And you continue to show... absolutely nothing concrete to cast any shadow of a doubt on anything I ever said. Pompous words and delusions of grandeur are not something concrete.
Feel free to actually drop some numbers in here. Like, oh, I don't know, something with SOME relevance, like your take on the actual numbers (or at least ratios) of Dysp/Prom/Tech/Neo moons in EVE, or maybe even a Technetium stockpile count ? No ? Then STFU.
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Bibbleibble
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:21:00 -
[761]
Originally by: Akita T
And you continue to show... absolutely nothing concrete to cast any shadow of a doubt on anything I ever said. Pompous words and delusions of grandeur are not something concrete.
Feel free to actually drop some numbers in here. Like, oh, I don't know, something with SOME relevance, like your take on the actual numbers (or at least ratios) of Dysp/Prom/Tech/Neo moons in EVE, or maybe even a Technetium stockpile count ? No ? Then STFU.
Quoting the bit that Lord whateverhisnameis seems to miss every time he starts trying to punch holes into anything Akita T says.
Akita T = an arguement with some decent maths that he talks through
Lord whateverhisnameis = RRRRRAAAGGGGEEEE!!!
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:27:00 -
[762]
Edited by: Lord XSiV on 06/01/2010 18:27:55
Originally by: oniplE
Originally by: Lord XSiV On a side note for those drooling about the numbers, using Akita's math and according to current market price , there would only be 4 techn moons producing in eve. Well 4.267 but we all know you can't have a fraction of a whole!
Can you please show the math/formula on how you got this number?
Bolded the part you over looked. I will consider that one an oversight and not point out that t was due to your lack of education. After all, everyone knows that MBAs (as you claim to be one) have no clue about numbers being only interested in pretty charts and pie graphs.
edit: Bah, I guess my html skillz are fail. But at least I am willing to admit it.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:31:00 -
[763]
Originally by: Lord XSiV Bolded the part you over looked. I will consider that one an oversight and not point out that t was due to your lack of education. After all, everyone knows that MBAs (as you claim to be one) have no clue about numbers being only interested in pretty charts and pie graphs.
Like I just said, let's say it again...
You continue to show absolutely nothing concrete. Pompous words, fake math and delusions of grandeur are not something concrete. Feel free to actually drop some numbers or real math in here, something with SOME relevance. So, what IS your take on the actual numbers//ratios of Dysp/Prom/Tech/Neo moons in EVE ? How about an estimate on Technetium stockpile count ?
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Taicha Serrano
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:40:00 -
[764]
Originally by: Zora Edited by: Zora on 22/12/2009 22:33:23 MD Drama Class, Part 1, "The Scheme"
Two men meet in a dark alley of Jita 4-4. Being serious business men, they wear grey coats and grey hats, and exchange worried looks. One of them carries a newspaper, with a clearly visible headline: 'Technetium - Buy, Buy, Buy!'
A: "It's like I could see the whole thing, one long chain of events that stretched all the way back before Dominion. I felt like I could see everything that happened, and everything that is going to happen. It was like a perfect pattern, laid out in front of me. And I realized we're all part of it, and all trapped by it."
B: "So do you know what's gonna happen?"
A: "No, it was a feeling. But I can guess. With so much chaos, someone will do something stupid. And when they do, things will turn nasty. And then Akita will be forced to do the only thing he knows how to do. At which point, all Xavier Hayes needs to do is keep his word. And then..."
B: "Crap. CCP will get rid of the technetium bottleneck before anyone had time to get rid of everything they stockpiled, amiright?"
A: "Well, it was just a feeling."
Characters exit stage.
[No pre-existing movie dialogs were harmed in the making of this play. If you do however happen to find a mutilated dialog from a certain movie, you may keep it ;)]
<3 Vendetta
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oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:41:00 -
[765]
Originally by: Lord XSiV Edited by: Lord XSiV on 06/01/2010 18:27:55
Originally by: oniplE
Originally by: Lord XSiV On a side note for those drooling about the numbers, using Akita's math and according to current market price , there would only be 4 techn moons producing in eve. Well 4.267 but we all know you can't have a fraction of a whole!
Can you please show the math/formula on how you got this number?
Bolded the part you over looked. I will consider that one an oversight and not point out that t was due to your lack of education. After all, everyone knows that MBAs (as you claim to be one) have no clue about numbers being only interested in pretty charts and pie graphs.
edit: Bah, I guess my html skillz are fail. But at least I am willing to admit it.
Sigh not this again, last time you whined about my "MBA" i ignored it because i didnt want to go into it. But ok, here goes: I never claimed i have an MBA, it was YOU that claimed I had an MBA degree. I said master business degree, you assumed MBA and forgot about Science masters that cover business economics. And im sorry to say you actually do have to know some math and statistical analysis to get it, but you will undoubtedly question this.
Just show me the numbers you used to get the 4.2 out of Akita's formula. Just point it out or copy paste it here. I want to see it. x |
Don Smiley
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:41:00 -
[766]
Originally by: Lord XSiV Edited by: Lord XSiV on 06/01/2010 18:27:55
Originally by: oniplE
Originally by: Lord XSiV On a side note for those drooling about the numbers, using Akita's math and according to current market price , there would only be 4 techn moons producing in eve. Well 4.267 but we all know you can't have a fraction of a whole!
Can you please show the math/formula on how you got this number?
Bolded the part you over looked. I will consider that one an oversight and not point out that t was due to your lack of education. After all, everyone knows that MBAs (as you claim to be one) have no clue about numbers being only interested in pretty charts and pie graphs.
edit: Bah, I guess my html skillz are fail. But at least I am willing to admit it.
Your argument seems predicated almost entirely on the assumption that Akita has badly underestimated the number of Tech moons. I'm not sure why anyone should buy your assumption over Akita's. You're suggesting that hundreds of undiscovered tech moons exist, with nothing to back up that contention.
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Lord XSiV
Amarr Digital Research - Omega Protocol
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:47:00 -
[767]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Lord XSiV Bolded the part you over looked. I will consider that one an oversight and not point out that t was due to your lack of education. After all, everyone knows that MBAs (as you claim to be one) have no clue about numbers being only interested in pretty charts and pie graphs.
Like I just said, let's say it again...
You continue to show absolutely nothing concrete. Pompous words, fake math and delusions of grandeur are not something concrete. Feel free to actually drop some numbers or real math in here, something with SOME relevance. So, what IS your take on the actual numbers//ratios of Dysp/Prom/Tech/Neo moons in EVE ? How about an estimate on Technetium stockpile count ?
Again, just wow.
I go and use your own math, the 'super special' math that all of your fanbois completely and utterly believe in without question and yet you still go question it? Well not only that but you spin it into a completely and entirely different topic having to do with the supply of something else that is not relevant to the discussion. Sounds like you are deflecting. Anyhow, more fail.
As to the rest of you fanbois. You are hopeless. You call for proof. It is shown to you and you cry about not understanding it. You call for math. We use your own math to show the obvious fail. You then repeat your call for math, showing that you have no ability to comprehend you were just shown. We call that ignorance and it is common in human society as an attribute of the masses.
Anyhow it is apparent that MD is now populated with noobs consisting of freshly created to a few year old alts of players who lack both simple math skills and common sense. I guess you could say it is similar to what happened with CAOD and probably most other forum subsections. Most likely the result of the successful growth - but unfortunately the population has expanded with sub standard player quality (ala typical WoW player) who have more interest in emo based social fantasies than reality.
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oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:52:00 -
[768]
Anyone here wanna make a bet on when and if Lord whatshisface is going to post some math proving anything he has said?
I claim "never". Anyone willing to bet against me? x |
Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 18:56:00 -
[769]
Originally by: oniplE Anyone here wanna make a bet on when and if Lord whatshisface is going to post some math proving anything he has said?
I claim "never". Anyone willing to bet against me?
It would be a losing bet.
Originally by: Lord XSiv I go and use your own math
He doesn't even understand that math requires numbers and symbols and stuff, none of which appear in his thread, so doubtful he'll ever own up and post any actual math.
Originally by: Akita T BTW, if you see God when you're clutching for your chest due to sudden realization you have no chance to get out of this with your wallet intact tell him he still owes me money
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.06 19:10:00 -
[770]
Originally by: Lord XSiV I go and use your own math
You did ? Show us the work then.
Quote: As to the rest of you fanbois. You are hopeless. You call for proof. It is shown to you and you cry about not understanding it.
No MATHEMATICAL proof has been shown. Just repeat it again for the sake of posterity.
Quote: You call for math. We use your own math to show the obvious fail.
Show the calculations. Publish a spreadsheet with MY math in it that shows anything you claim is true.
Quote: You then repeat your call for math, showing that you have no ability to comprehend you were just shown.
I was not shown any math from you. Again, please do repeat that said math, from start to finish, so we can double-check your calculations.
And with the risk of sounding like a broken record...
You continue to show absolutely nothing concrete. Pompous words, fake math and delusions of grandeur are not something concrete. Feel free to actually drop some numbers or real math in here, something with SOME relevance. So, what IS your take on the actual numbers//ratios of Dysp/Prom/Tech/Neo moons in EVE ? How about an estimate on Technetium stockpile count ?
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.06 19:17:00 -
[771]
Well, its been pretty obvious what you've been trying to do with your posts in this thread but it's good of you to come out and say it straight.
Quote:
So who is going to get the ball rolling on the 'manipulate the manipulators' event this weekend? I have something else better to do this weekend so I will preset my buy order in advance ... See if you can beat the 37% I got last week.
So, since you admit that this has all been an attempt to drive the price of tech down so you can profit when it rebounds, tell me, why should any of the people you are trying to manipulate this time round take it seriously now you have outed yourself as a liar?
I take it you no longer stand by this "prediction":
Quote:
I on the other hand am predicting a complete collapse and that tech will go down to 1500 pu. As such I have placed an order in Jita for that amount just so I can say that I actually back what I am saying.
Clearly, you didn't make your 37% from that order.
Now, the question that interests me is whether any of the drop we saw last week actually had anything to do with your attempted manipulation or whether it was just the natural trough from the fall that had begun before you began posting. My guess is you did manage to push the price down 1 or 2 k because there were clearly some people stupid enough to think that you and your friends were actually making a case rather than just shouting nonsense. But I would be interested to hear your own view. How much of the fall do you think you can take credit for?
What I don't understand, though, is why you persist in this now that you have declared your motivations. No one will take you seriously now, so what's the point carrying on with it?
Btw - I'm glad to see that human stupidity doesn't actually quite reach the depths of the positions you were putting forward. And I would like to thank you for your kind donation to the cause of democracy in Iran. That was truly selfless of you.
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elohllird
Funky Chill Collective
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Posted - 2010.01.06 21:15:00 -
[772]
Originally by: Lord XSiV
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Lord XSiV Bolded the part you over looked. I will consider that one an oversight and not point out that t was due to your lack of education. After all, everyone knows that MBAs (as you claim to be one) have no clue about numbers being only interested in pretty charts and pie graphs.
Like I just said, let's say it again...
You continue to show absolutely nothing concrete. Pompous words, fake math and delusions of grandeur are not something concrete. Feel free to actually drop some numbers or real math in here, something with SOME relevance. So, what IS your take on the actual numbers//ratios of Dysp/Prom/Tech/Neo moons in EVE ? How about an estimate on Technetium stockpile count ?
Again, just wow.
I go and use your own math, the 'super special' math that all of your fanbois completely and utterly believe in without question and yet you still go question it? Well not only that but you spin it into a completely and entirely different topic having to do with the supply of something else that is not relevant to the discussion. Sounds like you are deflecting. Anyhow, more fail.
As to the rest of you fanbois. You are hopeless. You call for proof. It is shown to you and you cry about not understanding it. You call for math. We use your own math to show the obvious fail. You then repeat your call for math, showing that you have no ability to comprehend you were just shown. We call that ignorance and it is common in human society as an attribute of the masses.
Anyhow it is apparent that MD is now populated with noobs consisting of freshly created to a few year old alts of players who lack both simple math skills and common sense. I guess you could say it is similar to what happened with CAOD and probably most other forum subsections. Most likely the result of the successful growth - but unfortunately the population has expanded with sub standard player quality (ala typical WoW player) who have more interest in emo based social fantasies than reality.
you use alot of big words for an idiot, im impressed
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Tesal
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Posted - 2010.01.07 00:00:00 -
[773]
Sup, I checked out there for a bit. Anyway, I will repeat what I said before.
1. The price of T2 is elastic. Price goes down, more sells. Price goes up, less sells. This will play into any bottleneck scenario. 2. Other moon materials are in demand besides just high ends, they are presently holding at mining costs with a small tower. This creates a cost on the low end that wasn't there before. This is a base cost for the ship, its not elastic unless it crashes in which case it ceases to be a factor. 3. There is T3 in competition with T2 on the high end of the price scale. If T2 goes up too high, people will jump to T3. Why buy a 200m HAC when you can get a 350m Strategic Cruiser? People will go for the upgrade more often. People will not pay 350m for a command ship as often if they can get a Strategic Cruiser for the same price. 4. I happen to think there are more Tech moons than Akita T is estimating. Its not clear to me that there is a bottleneck in Tech. The bottleneck may be spread over tech, neo, dyspro and promethium. This could be a much more volatile and entertaining situation.
Akita T is assuming a bottleneck like the old Dyspro bottleneck. That was a simple proposition, T2 was the only high end product manufactured, and the only limiting factor at that time was price. Now it is price AND competition AND the supply of multiple raw materials. It is an equation with a lot more variables than people are used to. Maybe Akita T is right, but I happen to think this is a much more complex situation than in the analysis here.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
SunGod RA
Endless Destruction
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Posted - 2010.01.07 00:36:00 -
[774]
For those who know me, they know it is a rare occurrence for me to be rendered speechless. But when I heard that Akita & Co. wants to renege on an incredibly large number of promises, I must say that speechless I was. The points I plan to make in this post will sound tediously familiar to everyone who wants to empower the oppressed to control their own lives. Nevertheless, its zingers symbolize lawlessness, violence, and misguided rebellionùextreme liberty for a few, even if the rest of us lose more than a little freedom. If one dares to criticize even a single tenet of Akita & Co.'s viewpoints, one is promptly condemned as pharisaical, petulant, psychotic, or whatever epithet Akita & Co. deems most appropriate, usually without much explanation. You see, the first thing we need to do is to get Akita & Co. to admit that it has a problem. It should be counseled to recite the following:
* I, Akita & Co., am a headlong worrywart. * I have been a participant in a giant scheme to dump effluent into creeks, lakes, streams, and high-end moon mineral markets. * I hereby admit my addiction to feudalism. I ask for the strength and wisdom to fight this addiction.
Once Akita & Co. realizes that it has a problem, maybe then it'll see that it has been said that the law of parsimony suggests that the trouble with such putrid sluggards is that they intend to take us all back to the Stone Age. I, in turn, warrant that even its hatchet men are afraid that it will wage a clandestine guerilla war against many basic human rights in the blink of an eye. I have seen their fear manifested over and over again, and it is further evidence that if I had my druthers, Akita & Co. would never have had the opportunity to twist the teaching of history to suit its nutty purposes. As it stands, baleful shell games have consequences. That conclusion is not based on some sort of soulless philosophy or on Akita & Co.-style rhetorical argumentation, but on widely known and proven principles of science. These principles explain that Akita & Co. appears to have found a new tool to use to help it organize a whispering campaign against me. That tool is interventionism, and if you watch it wield it you'll obviously see why thoughtful people are being forced to admit, after years of evading the truth, that I have been right. I was right when I said that the wisdom that comes from maturation of the spirit, mind, and body will some day prevail over the idiocy of Akita & Co.'s scare tactics. I was right when I said that I will renew my resolve to show principle, gumption, verve, and nerve. And I was right when I said that Akita & Co. says that it needs a little more time to clean up its act. As far as I'm concerned, Akita & Co.'s time has run out. _
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Adult Baby
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Posted - 2010.01.07 01:00:00 -
[775]
Bro cool, story.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2010.01.07 04:55:00 -
[776]
what...the hell
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2010.01.07 05:43:00 -
[777]
Edited by: Le Skunk on 07/01/2010 05:44:22 Whilst you book worm types have been arguing - I have upped my pre to post dominion profits to a final figure of around 18.6 billion isk.
This was done by the following.
1) Reading the dev blog and look at the obvious increases in rattlesnakes stats. Buying a ton of rattlesnakes. Selling rattlesnakes
and
2) Looking at a sin bpc on test server (post dom stats) and current server (pre dom). Noting differences on back of envelope. Buying the ones that went up
No spreadsheet were harmed in the creation of this 18.6 billion.
Its time you people used GUT and INSTINCT to make your isk. Live like MEN not like MACHINES!!!!!!!
Dry land is NOT a myth. I know - for I have seen it
SKUNK (o)
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Mme Pinkerton
Caldari
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Posted - 2010.01.07 07:08:00 -
[778]
Originally by: Tesal 1. The price of T2 is elastic. Price goes down, more sells. Price goes up, less sells. This will play into any bottleneck scenario. [...] Maybe Akita T is right, but I happen to think this is a much more complex situation than in the analysis here.
this.
* We have no idea of real demand as you cannot remove resellers from the data. * We have no idea of the schedule for real demand in terms of price as trade volume in Jita depends to a big part on spread and not on price (lots of resellers). * Assuming fixed demand is stupid. * We have no idea how prices of moon minerals are actually formed (supply, cost, consumer demand, oligopolistic markup - how does it work out?). * The spreadsheet says nothing about the role of alchemy (again: depends on prices whether alchemy comes into play or not; the spreadsheet tries not to talk about prices; alchemy could affect the supply side of T2 items significantly). * Estimates of moon counts are bound to deviate from the real data, yet nobody seems to deem it necessary to actually test for the sensitivity of your results to wrong estimates. * You make "long-term" forecasts in EVE. whatcouldpossiblygowrong...
The "It's still better than nothing" argument is wrong, having false data will lead you to wrong conclusions. Having no data you will hopefully abstain from conclusions.
If it turns out your forecasts are right, you have been very lucky. If not I am sure you will find plenty of excuses (there are bound to happen at least some external shocks within the next few months). Your methodology is rubbish in any case.
--
"The public may not fully understand precisely what auditors do or how we do it, but they care that we exist because it provides them the confidence they so badly need and want." |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.07 07:53:00 -
[779]
Originally by: Mme Pinkerton * We have no idea of real demand as you cannot remove resellers from the data. * We have no idea of the schedule for real demand in terms of price as trade volume in Jita depends to a big part on spread and not on price (lots of resellers).
Correct.
Quote: * Assuming fixed demand is stupid.
Correct... BUT... only the rough price calculations assumed an approximate equal overall price level at the long-term equilibrium, but immediately after it was also mentioned how extra "unknown" Technetium moons could affect that long-term overall price level.
Quote: * We have no idea how prices of moon minerals are actually formed (supply, cost, consumer demand, oligopolistic markup - how does it work out?).
Partially/mostly correct. While no doubt political forces end up affecting actual prices to a very large degree, the relative price level (i.e. the order of price levels) in the long run is certainly linked to relative scarcities (Dysprosium/Promethium would have ended up pre-Dominon as the most expensive moon minerals either way, but it might have been at least partially politically motivated for them to reach such insane price levels). However, would any new extraction-level bottleneck arise, we are fairly certain political forces would act upon it in similar fashion, so knowing for sure how it works might not be that urgent.
Quote: * The spreadsheet says nothing about the role of alchemy (again: depends on prices whether alchemy comes into play or not; the spreadsheet tries not to talk about prices; alchemy could affect the supply side of T2 items significantly).
Actually, they do. It's not the best possible calculation when it comes to alchemy, but "something" is there nevertheless.
Quote: * Estimates of moon counts are bound to deviate from the real data, yet nobody seems to deem it necessary to actually test for the sensitivity of your results to wrong estimates.
I kept on asking for better numbers, seems that whoever MIGHT have more accurate numbers almost always elect to keep them a secret (r are only willing to discuss them in private with anonymity requests, leaving me the only person to assess their honesty and accuracy) - no wonders there is no clarity to be had there.
Quote: * You make "long-term" forecasts in EVE. whatcouldpossiblygowrong...
I believe that was one of the first big things in the disclaimer At any given time, CCP could simply render EVERYTHING irrelevant/moot/wrong with a flick of a fingertip.
Quote: The "It's still better than nothing" argument is wrong, having false data will lead you to wrong conclusions. Having no data you will hopefully abstain from conclusions.
No pain, no gain ?
Quote: Your methodology is rubbish in any case.
I and everybody else in here would welcome better methodologies.
Quote: I think some of you are too concerned with the packaging (accusations of Akita being a scammer, insults, arrogance) to actually look at the contents of his posts; e.g. question is not "does it make sense to hoard large amount of supplies for T2 production" but "people are hoarding large amounts of T2 production. How does this affect our forecasts? Can we predict the resulting impact on demand or can't we? Does this matter or is our model still good enough? How do we know it is still good enough?" (the "we only care for long-term" excuse is pointless imo due to reasons mentioned above).
This is criticism I can easily accept as valid, because... well, it's valid In your opinion, conclusions reached from partial data with less-than-perfect methods are a bad thing (which I suppose we can all agree on, to a certain degree), worse than no conclusions at all (well, here opinions will start to differ).
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.01.07 07:53:00 -
[780]
It's sad to see that this thread has become a ridiculous and only occasionally amusing stream of BS.
RIP - one of the greatest threads in MD history.
I guess there really is nothing more to be said. We just need to wait and see where the chips fall. --------------------------------------
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Reem Fairchild
Minmatar Military Research and Manufacturing Corp.
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Posted - 2010.01.07 09:02:00 -
[781]
For what it's worth:
Thank you Akita for the hard work you must have put in on this, whether the prediction proves accurate or not.
Originally by: Akita T this whole game is just me playing with myself
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UTRocketman11
Caldari
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Posted - 2010.01.07 09:09:00 -
[782]
Lord has no valid points until he posts some screens of the Monte-Carlo program he said he ran. I wonder if he even has GoldSim.
It is also clear that everyone posting arguments, did not read even the first page of the thread, nor look through the Excel spreadsheet. If they did, they would have seen that most of their current points were debated on much earlier.
Seriously, idk why Akita even bothers anymore. It just gives more credit to Lord's ramblings. Why even take the abuse if they can't be bothered to look at the first page and check out the spreadsheet for themselves? just get out and let the chips fall where they may.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.07 09:49:00 -
[783]
Edited by: Akita T on 07/01/2010 09:51:13
Originally by: UTRocketman11 Seriously, idk why Akita even bothers anymore.
Because it gives me something to do between AutoCAD sessions when I don't feel like watching a movie ? Also, because of free bumps
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
QuelAlt
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Posted - 2010.01.07 14:14:00 -
[784]
I'm amused that people on this thread don't think that the market can handle technetium at prices like Akita is suggesting, after it spent 6 months handling 100k dysp and 60k prom just fine.
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meisterschwein
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Posted - 2010.01.07 14:44:00 -
[785]
sheeps wake up! Lord is Akitas alt! This is just another conspiracy (just like 9/11 and Apollo 11 <- see what I did there?) to fool the people!
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Technology and Finance
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Posted - 2010.01.07 14:50:00 -
[786]
Originally by: meisterschwein sheeps wake up! Lord is Akitas alt! This is just another conspiracy (just like 9/11 and Apollo 11 <- see what I did there?) to fool the people!
you cracked the akita code!
black helicopters inc
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Tesal
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Posted - 2010.01.07 19:20:00 -
[787]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 07/01/2010 09:51:13
Originally by: UTRocketman11 Seriously, idk why Akita even bothers anymore.
Because it gives me something to do between AutoCAD sessions when I don't feel like watching a movie ? Also, because of free bumps
AutoCAD....
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Jita Chiquita
Caldari Science and Trade Institute
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Posted - 2010.01.07 20:05:00 -
[788]
Originally by: Tesal
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 07/01/2010 09:51:13
Originally by: UTRocketman11 Seriously, idk why Akita even bothers anymore.
Because it gives me something to do between AutoCAD sessions when I don't feel like watching a movie ? Also, because of free bumps
AutoCAD....
sure, s/he is a furniture designer
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.08 18:22:00 -
[789]
Originally by: Tesal AutoCAD....
Just at my current occupation (and no, it's not furniture designer, even if a small portion of the things I "design" could -with a stretch of the imagination- almost be called "furniture"), didn't get to have much use for it in the previous jobs. There's also a lot of XLS/DOC/PDF-ing going on, but that's usually somebody else's business
AutoCAD - what else would you use to make to-scale layout plans and other similar things anyway ? Not like I have much of a choice anyway, everybody else in the field uses it as a De-facto standard, so even if some better alternative existed (even a free one), I couldn't really use it without problems.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Arrador
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Posted - 2010.01.08 20:00:00 -
[790]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tesal AutoCAD....
Just at my current occupation (and no, it's not furniture designer, even if a small portion of the things I "design" could -with a stretch of the imagination- almost be called "furniture"), didn't get to have much use for it in the previous jobs. There's also a lot of XLS/DOC/PDF-ing going on, but that's usually somebody else's business
AutoCAD - what else would you use to make to-scale layout plans and other similar things anyway ? Not like I have much of a choice anyway, everybody else in the field uses it as a De-facto standard, so even if some better alternative existed (even a free one), I couldn't really use it without problems.
There is Free CAD software:http://brlcad.org/ & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRL-CAD
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Kaican
Mechanical Eagles Inc.
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Posted - 2010.01.08 20:58:00 -
[791]
Originally by: Arrador
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tesal AutoCAD....
Just at my current occupation (and no, it's not furniture designer, even if a small portion of the things I "design" could -with a stretch of the imagination- almost be called "furniture"), didn't get to have much use for it in the previous jobs. There's also a lot of XLS/DOC/PDF-ing going on, but that's usually somebody else's business
AutoCAD - what else would you use to make to-scale layout plans and other similar things anyway ? Not like I have much of a choice anyway, everybody else in the field uses it as a De-facto standard, so even if some better alternative existed (even a free one), I couldn't really use it without problems.
There is Free CAD software:http://brlcad.org/ & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRL-CAD
If the comparison between free CAD and not-free CAD is similar to, say GIMP vs Photoshop or OpenOffice vs. Microsoft Office... well, you get what you pay for.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.09 06:04:00 -
[792]
Edited by: Akita T on 09/01/2010 06:08:25 <Anything>-CAD is still AutoCAD-like, and everybody including me already has AutoCAD (software cost was never really an issue, usability and compatibility was), so I'd still be doing pretty much the same (no radically improved usability, or even reduced usability), yet at worst have problems working with others in the same field (compatibility). In the end it does absolutely no good to switch, quite the contrary. The discussion about it is moot. __
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming of "Akita T is wrong about Technetium in EVE // No, Akita is right // No, Akita isn't // etc"
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Akita Tee
Jita Investments and Trade Firm
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Posted - 2010.01.09 07:00:00 -
[793]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 09/01/2010 06:08:25 <Anything>-CAD is still AutoCAD-like, and everybody including me already has AutoCAD (software cost was never really an issue, usability and compatibility was), so I'd still be doing pretty much the same (no radically improved usability, or even reduced usability), yet at worst have problems working with others in the same field (compatibility). In the end it does absolutely no good to switch, quite the contrary. The discussion about it is moot. __
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming of "Akita T is wrong about Technetium in EVE // No, Akita is right // No, Akita isn't // etc"
Well it never went over 40k like you predicted for the hulkegeddon event... And I would say it's safe to assume that 120 or 160k is completely ridiculous at this point. "To imitate the god of the people, when he acts like a fool, makes one a wise ass." |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.09 07:53:00 -
[794]
Originally by: Akita Tee Well it never went over 40k like you predicted for the hulkegeddon event
I believe I actually said something to the extent of "Hulkageddon wouldn't even register", but my memory might not be picture-perfect after so many pages of chatter. Care to link to my post about it, so I can see the context in which you claim I would have made such a prediction ?
Quote: And I would say it's safe to assume that 120 or 160k is completely ridiculous at this point.
If by "at this point" you mean "in the next week", then sure, you are completely right. If however you actually mean "long-term price", not so much - care to explain why it would ?
P.S. Lol@name.
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Akita Tee
Jita Investments and Trade Firm
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Posted - 2010.01.09 08:37:00 -
[795]
Edited by: Akita Tee on 09/01/2010 08:39:54
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Queen Athena [...]a large portion of Technetium Moons are currently or just leaving reinforced at the moment as the Russians just swept through low sec and NPC 0.0 taking them out one at a time.
It can only get worse the coming weeks, fresh-supply-wise... Thankfully there's truckloads of stockpiles. ...or so the majority seems to believe.
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: raukosen The main thing that held back HAC fleets was the AoE DD. Now that it's gone you can expect to see more of them
All sounds pretty damn good for Technetium
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev now we just need "hulkageddon" to be a huge success and we'll be back over 40K
Looks like it's going back there in a few days even without Hulkageddon
So where's the 40k Tech at, even with the Russians strolling through Black Rise and Venal, with the hulks burning on the veldspar... I attest that the only reason it is still near 38k is because of these things, when they all calm down, we will see lower Tech.
EDIT: You keep assuming that Nanotransitors will PULL the price of Tech higher... Why can you not also assume that the price of Tech will PULL the price of Nanotransistors lower as competition for an overproduced chain get more fierce? "To imitate the god of the people, when he acts like a fool, makes one a wise ass." |
Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel. The Jerk Cartel
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Posted - 2010.01.09 11:32:00 -
[796]
it was me saying hulkageddon won't even register. and I run the damned event :P
at 500 tech a pop we would need to kill truly massive amounts of hulks (yes, more massive than the 200+ a day we have gotten in the first few days).
That said, I've done my part and removed 321500 units of tech from the galaxy so far :P
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.09 15:01:00 -
[797]
Edited by: Queen Athena on 09/01/2010 15:03:05 So Dysprosium and Promethium are on the rise again. Technetium and Neodymium are completely stagnant. and Platinum is dropping.
Care to make any more predictions Akita T?
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Tarne Monter
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Posted - 2010.01.09 16:04:00 -
[798]
Originally by: Queen Athena Edited by: Queen Athena on 09/01/2010 15:03:05 So Dysprosium and Promethium are on the rise again. Technetium and Neodymium are completely stagnant. and Platinum is dropping.
Care to make any more predictions Akita T?
In a thread about market fluctuations and price volatility all I have to say is.
Thank you Captain Obvious, you have once again saved the day.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.09 16:17:00 -
[799]
Originally by: Queen Athena Edited by: Queen Athena on 09/01/2010 15:03:05 So Dysprosium and Promethium are on the rise again. Technetium and Neodymium are completely stagnant. and Platinum is dropping.
Care to make any more predictions Akita T?
Yes - tech is completely stagnant. It has only risen by 30% or so in the last 7 days. Its true that the price of tech hasn't changed too much in the last four days, though. It is at least partially stagnant. Or stable in the very short term, as one might choose to say if one didn't have an agenda to push.
Akita's prediction: Tech may hit 30k by Christmas. Current price of Tech: bar 100k units at about 1k pu lower, all the sell orders are at 39896 and above. Akita did mislead us. He failed to predict how fast tech would rise.
Tell us, what are your predictions? Tech at 1.5k pu, like the Lord?
Come on - you have to try harder now Lord XSiV isn't here.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.10 00:05:00 -
[800]
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Queen Athena Edited by: Queen Athena on 09/01/2010 15:03:05 So Dysprosium and Promethium are on the rise again. Technetium and Neodymium are completely stagnant. and Platinum is dropping.
Care to make any more predictions Akita T?
Yes - tech is completely stagnant. It has only risen by 30% or so in the last 7 days. Its true that the price of tech hasn't changed too much in the last four days, though. It is at least partially stagnant. Or stable in the very short term, as one might choose to say if one didn't have an agenda to push.
Akita's prediction: Tech may hit 30k by Christmas. Current price of Tech: bar 100k units at about 1k pu lower, all the sell orders are at 39896 and above. Akita did mislead us. He failed to predict how fast tech would rise.
Tell us, what are your predictions? Tech at 1.5k pu, like the Lord?
Come on - you have to try harder now Lord XSiV isn't here.
You call yourself a market elite? First Stagnant Tech has nothing to do with price. The Tech on the market is largely sold between a few different market investors, do a couple buy and sells and you will see the same names popping up a lot. Second, Tech is sliding again to 37k p/u. Third, "It has gone up 30% in the last 7 days..." great, it has gone down 50% in the last 14 days.
There are enough sell orders at 37k to fulfill every buy order down to 30k. Start looking at it as Sell orders = actual market supply and buy orders as demand. When you see it like that, there is an over supply, and hardly enough people to fulfill it. Which goes back to the same market investors.
You can try and mock and ridicule all those that do not agree with Akita T, but at the end of the day the market is proving us right.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.10 00:12:00 -
[801]
How many times do we have to repeat the fact that we KNOW there's ample oversupply for the time being, in the form of existing stockpiles ? Stockpiles only have an effect on the current price of Technetium, and as confidence in long-term prices rises and existing stockpiles in the hands of skeptics go down, prices will naturally rise. In the end, a LONG time from now, iff CCP changes nothing to nerf Technetium, stockpiles mostly or completely exhausted, only newly extracted Technetium being available, prices will be sky-high.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.10 00:21:00 -
[802]
Originally by: Akita T How many times do we have to repeat the fact that we KNOW there's ample oversupply for the time being, in the form of existing stockpiles ? Stockpiles only have an effect on the current price of Technetium, and as confidence in long-term prices rises and existing stockpiles in the hands of skeptics go down, prices will naturally rise. In the end, a LONG time from now, iff CCP changes nothing to nerf Technetium, stockpiles mostly or completely exhausted, only newly extracted Technetium being available, prices will be sky-high.
You are insane with your stockpiles theory. I think we are seeing a slow bleed of oversupply despite recent market interruptions. Which in turn lead to overall lower Tech, higher Dysprosium (the real bottleneck) and a lot of sad market investors.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.10 00:26:00 -
[803]
Originally by: Queen Athena
You call yourself a market elite?
LOL. Nope! Market noob here! Only been playing just under 5 months.
Originally by: Queen Athena
First Stagnant Tech has nothing to do with price.
So when you said X is rising, Y is stagnant and Z is falling you weren't referring to the price? What were you referring to? Teach me. You also connect the stagnation to Akita's predictions. I assumed you were referring to those concerning price. If not, then which predictions are you talking about. "Stagnation", as far as I'm aware, is normally used as a metaphor for lack of change. As you have pointed out tech has fallen 50% in the last 14 days. This is hardly stagnant (pricewise). What is it about it that hasn't changed, while the same quality has risen in relation to dyspro and promethium, and fallen in relation to platinum. This is not meant to be sarcastic - I just don't understand what you are talking about if not price.
You say the market is proving you right but you haven't actually made any predictions, so far as I can see, that can be proved. Give us some so we can watch the market and eventually agree with you. You say "at the end of the day the market is proving us right". By us, do you mean Lord XSiV as well as yourself? If so, do you agree with his prediction that tech will end up at 1.5k pu?
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.10 00:45:00 -
[804]
Edited by: Queen Athena on 10/01/2010 00:49:05 Raw I should have clarified. Tech is stagnant as in, the market is not moving one way or another due to recycled buy and sell orders. It means that the market is not gaining or losing supply, simply tossing around the same units that were there before. The reason this is significant is, as long as the same units are sold back and forth for profit, and more units are brought in from the moons, and smaller amounts of units are purchased to be destroyed (ie. processed or reacted) then the price will continue to fall out from under the sell orders.
The Rising and falling was price related, I apologize in that I was lazy and put my thoughts into one point instead of breaking them up.
PS~ Buy Orders for Tech have fallen to 35k.
EDIT: One can look at the price history and see that during the days Tech was "higher than the market was willing to pay" the total orders fall to around a million. During times when the market "Ripe for profit or manipulation" the market orders increase to 2 or 3 million. Since Technetium's only real purpose in this game is to react into other goods, one can surmise that Producers withhold their purchase until the market is pleasing to them, and the rest of the price of Tech is speculative and manipulated.
It has been said before, but once you get the manipulators out of this market, the price will find stability below where it is now.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2010.01.10 00:58:00 -
[805]
To Akita T:
Please stop posting in this thread. This thread along with the others on the same subject jumped the shark a while back. This is a vampire thread and needs a stake in its heart.
Although it was fun while it lasted, and I know your forumFU is strong, your skills are needed elsewhere ------anywhere but here.
This is starting to look like the scrapheap thread.
Thank you for your time.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.10 01:06:00 -
[806]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Akita T How many times do we have to repeat the fact that we KNOW there's ample oversupply for the time being, in the form of existing stockpiles ? Stockpiles only have an effect on the current price of Technetium, and as confidence in long-term prices rises and existing stockpiles in the hands of skeptics go down, prices will naturally rise. In the end, a LONG time from now, iff CCP changes nothing to nerf Technetium, stockpiles mostly or completely exhausted, only newly extracted Technetium being available, prices will be sky-high.
You are insane with your stockpiles theory. I think we are seeing a slow bleed of oversupply despite recent market interruptions. Which in turn lead to overall lower Tech, higher Dysprosium (the real bottleneck) and a lot of sad market investors.
Oh, I'm sorry, exactly WHAT about Technetium having large stockpiles since before pre-Dominion is so insane ? For a while, it was the 3rd most valuable moon mineral, then it briefly went down to 5th most valuable for a bit over half a year. It would have been quite usual for people to have a Technetium moon and at least mine it - however, actually bothering to move the extracted Technetium to Jita, not so much of a hurry. Now that prices have gone up, people might actually bother to move at least some of those stockpiles to Jita (and the higher the prices go, the more likely they are to do it). As for Dysprosium being the bottleneck - are you MENTAL ? If it's not Technetium, it's Neodymium, not Dysprosium. Dysprosium is done, finished, over, kaput, worth a pittance, the only thing still holding it up in price (alongside Promethium and related materials/components) being inertia.
_
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Technology and Finance
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Posted - 2010.01.10 01:09:00 -
[807]
The weekend slump started! Late, but it's started.
20k this time tomorrow.
Sell now lemmings cause it's only down from here.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.10 01:28:00 -
[808]
Athena - Thanks for that. I do see what you are saying now. But surely some tech must be leaving the market and some coming in. Is the suggestion, then, that what is coming in exceeds what is leaving? If so, I can see how this would lead to the price falling in time. But how do we determine how much of the tech that comes into the market comes from stockpiles and how much comes from new production? I hope you can forgive me if the following questions and points seem a bit stupid but I'm neither a maths nor an economics person.
That the amount of tech needed to build T2 stuff has increased is not in question, although one might argue that the amount of T2 stuff that will now be built will fall in proportion to the rise in requirements, thus leading to the same total demand for tech as before. In this (unlikely, extreme) scenario, tech prices should remain as they were before? But, more plausibly, we might say that there may be some fall in T2 production, albeit not in proportion to the rise in requirements, which would lead to some increase in demand for tech, although, again, not in proportion to the rise in requirements. Or, again, if T2 production remains the same, then demand for tech will rise exactly in proportion with the new raised requirements.
This takes us back, doesn't it, to the question of available supply? And this is my amateur understanding of Akita's analysis. If we assume as most likely that there will be an increased demand for tech, as will happen unless T2 production falls in propotion with the rise in tech requirements, we have to ask if the available supply can sustain such a rise. Let's put stockpiles to one side for a moment. So, if tech requirements rise and the supply can keep pace with the rise there should be minimal change in the price of tech compared to its price before the new requirements. But if we think that new tech supplies cannot keep pace with the rise, then tech prices will go up (exactly how much I will leave aside completely as way beyond my competence). This is the bottleneck situation.
So, whether or not one thinks there will be a bottleneck depends on one's view of the number of tech moons out there and the total production capacity that will be available at any one time (taking into account wars, inefficiencies, etc.). So, I see that there can be significant disagreements on this point. Personally, I have heard some estimations for the number of moons out there from Akita and Turiel that, whilst certainly not solid, do appear to be based on reasonable methodologies (assuming that they are not deliberately misleading people - although much of the info drawn on was open source), and these seem relatively plausible to me. What I haven't heard yet, on the other hand, are counter estimates of the production capacities that go beyond assertions and anecdotal evidence (I may have missed the methodological presentations and, if I have, please direct me to them). So, whilst I have found Akita's bottleneck scenario to be plausible (although I probably lean towards Mme. Pinkerton's comments about this possibly being undecidable on the basis of the available evidence - hence my meagre speculation on tech) I haven't yet seen a plausible argument (certainly not one as plausible) for there being more moons than are needed to fulfil the demand on tech (there may have been some buried in Lord XSiV's rants but I find it impossible to get beyond his rhetorical posturing and admitted attempts to manipulate the market downwards for his own profit).
cont...
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.10 01:33:00 -
[809]
Now, going back to the stockpile issue: assuming, for a moment, that Akita's bottleneck position is correct, we still won't see the effects of this bottleneck on the market until the only supply for the market is new production of tech. As long as stockpiles are able to supply some of the demand the crisis will not appear. So, on my understanding of his position, we cannot infer from the current supply situation much about what will ultimately happen to the market once the demand has drained off the stockpiles and can only then be supplied by new tech production.
Apologies for the tedious length of this post and the elementary description of the positions. I thought I should set out my, probably flawed, understanding of the situation and arguments (I hope I haven't misrepresented Akita too badly) in tedious detail so you can tell me exactly where I am going wrong in failing to come to the same conclusions as you. The crux, as I see it and as has been often said, is the number of tech moons. If these can indeed supply the full demands of the market then there is no bottleneck, despite the raised requirements. But I would like to see some solid reasons for rejecting the moon counts given by "Akita and Co.".
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.10 01:37:00 -
[810]
Originally by: RAW23 I hope I haven't misrepresented Akita too badly
You actually got it almost perfectly right, nothing noteworthy of any corrections for the purpose of this particular discussion.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2010.01.10 03:56:00 -
[811]
Originally by: SetrakDark The weekend slump started! Late, but it's started.
20k this time tomorrow.
Sell now lemmings cause it's only down from here.
Aren't you the same person that said it would be at 5K by last monday?
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Technology and Finance
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Posted - 2010.01.10 03:57:00 -
[812]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev
Originally by: SetrakDark The weekend slump started! Late, but it's started.
20k this time tomorrow.
Sell now lemmings cause it's only down from here.
Aren't you the same person that said it would be at 5K by last monday?
uhhhhhh...this time for sure though!
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Akita Tee
Jita Investments and Trade Firm
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Posted - 2010.01.12 13:26:00 -
[813]
One of my buddies just sent me an evemail that the leader of Morsus Mihi declared he knows of at least 600 Technetium moons in some thread on another website. Can anyone link or c/d?
If that is true, the numbers for the spreadsheet need to be changed and would mean big prediction changes. "To imitate the god of the people, when he acts like a fool, makes one a wise ass." |
RaTTuS
BIG Libertas Fidelitas
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Posted - 2010.01.12 13:50:00 -
[814]
Originally by: Akita Tee One of my buddies just sent me an evemail that the leader of Morsus Mihi declared he knows of at least 600 Technetium moons in some thread on another website. Can anyone link or c/d?
If that is true, the numbers for the spreadsheet need to be changed and would mean big prediction changes.
I know someone who knows some one who says that all the moons in all regions are going to be changed each DT -- | Capital |
Akita Tee
Jita Investments and Trade Firm
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Posted - 2010.01.12 13:52:00 -
[815]
Link was sent
Linkage
If anyone would know, it would be him right? "To imitate the god of the people, when he acts like a fool, makes one a wise ass." |
RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.12 14:03:00 -
[816]
This gets very interesting now. Finally, some counter evidence, albeit late and from a source who has good reasons to downplay the value of tech at this point.
/grabs popcorn
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Akita Tee
Jita Investments and Trade Firm
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Posted - 2010.01.12 14:06:00 -
[817]
Originally by: RAW23 This gets very interesting now. Finally, some counter evidence, albeit late and from a source who has good reasons to downplay the value of tech at this point.
/grabs popcorn
Yes it will get interesting. Curious why you think the NC would want to downplay Tech, do they not have the most to gain from Tech at insane prices? I know nothing of 0.0 politics so you very well may be right, i dunno. "To imitate the god of the people, when he acts like a fool, makes one a wise ass." |
RAW23
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Posted - 2010.01.12 14:38:00 -
[818]
Originally by: Akita Tee
Originally by: RAW23 This gets very interesting now. Finally, some counter evidence, albeit late and from a source who has good reasons to downplay the value of tech at this point.
/grabs popcorn
Yes it will get interesting. Curious why you think the NC would want to downplay Tech, do they not have the most to gain from Tech at insane prices? I know nothing of 0.0 politics so you very well may be right, i dunno.
I'm more or less completely ignorant too. But I was under the impression that the north was now in the sights for invasion by all the other main players because of the apparent value of its resources (see, for instance, the Mittani's recent article). If you wanted to buy a bit of time, downplaying the value of the resources that people are targeting you for would be one way of doing it.
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Grozen
Caldari Beacon Institute and Industrial
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Posted - 2010.01.12 15:27:00 -
[819]
Edited by: Grozen on 12/01/2010 15:28:32 If i held a large quantity of tech moons/stock then i'd first want to get rid of all competion by driving the prices as low as i can buy all their supplies and then release all my stockpiles at 10times the original price.By the time competion is in again you could sell 75% of your stock at significant profit. knowledge is power |
Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2010.01.12 19:01:00 -
[820]
Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 12/01/2010 19:04:47 Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 12/01/2010 19:02:37
Originally by: Akita Tee Link was sent
Linkage
If anyone would know, it would be him right?
based on the (few) other posts made under that name on SHC, I'm pretty sure that is not him/a troll. I'm pretty sure when Akita/Turiel were working up their tech numbers they talked to MM, anyways.
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Lijhal
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Posted - 2010.01.13 07:44:00 -
[821]
thx akita
but what happends now with cadmium? its going up in value and cost after 9.1. and after reading your spreadsheet this is a sideeffect of the current market situation, right?
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AmarrVictor
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Posted - 2010.01.13 09:39:00 -
[822]
Edited by: AmarrVictor on 13/01/2010 09:52:15 Its simple, they saw what happened to tech prices when some nobody came on here screaming scam. They thought if someone with clout did the same thing it would happen again so they shift their stock at 50k, free up assets, make a "the sky is falling" mini post and buy up at half the value when people have panicked.
Good idea really.
A bit more research gives you this : Proof
This shows 230 tech moons that are known. Given that the level of known moons compared with unknown is less than 50% this does lend some credibility to the claims.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.13 11:39:00 -
[823]
Originally by: Lijhal but what happends now with cadmium? its going up in value and cost after 9.1. and after reading your spreadsheet this is a sideeffect of the current market situation, right?
The question is not what happens now with it, the question is why the heck did it fall so low in the first place. We've talked about cadmium/chromium much earlier on, before it started to go way down.
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Prime
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Posted - 2010.01.13 21:48:00 -
[824]
techn pricecheck @ jita
31k / 30k (roughly, ignoring the .01 isk games)
seems like it fell quite a bit, but frankly, still really high
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adriaans
Amarr Ankaa. Nair Al-Zaurak
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Posted - 2010.01.15 20:58:00 -
[825]
30/28, evening out it seems now, think it will stay around this, go lower or start going up again? -sig- Support the introduction of Blaze crystals for Amarr!
Originally by: UMEE if ure another fotm re-roller, then dont pvp. you'll fail.
QFT! |
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Technology and Finance
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:05:00 -
[826]
Someone is desperately propping it up with orders that disappear before they get filled. Someone nuked their 30b position at 28.7k as soon as it got close, then spammed a ton of small orders in a last ditch attempt to make demand look thick.
Going into the regular weekend cyclical downturn with the numbers as they are does not look good.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:12:00 -
[827]
Originally by: SetrakDark Going into the regular weekend cyclical downturn with the numbers as they are does not look good.
I think it looks grrrreat, 'cause I aint got any as I am typing this, but I will have before the weekend is over
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MD stock market / Audits 001 / MD investees |
EatMoreBeans
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:20:00 -
[828]
You do realise dont you that the dotlan region maps showing moons were faked by some scrapheap folks to drive prices down so they can rebuy and make their isk again?
Check the time they were updated.
Theres only 213 tech moons in eve and they know it and lol at the eople falling for it
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:21:00 -
[829]
Originally by: SetrakDark Someone is desperately propping it up with orders that disappear before they get filled. Someone nuked their 30b position at 28.7k as soon as it got close, then spammed a ton of small orders in a last ditch attempt to make demand look thick.
Going into the regular weekend cyclical downturn with the numbers as they are does not look good.
I also noticed that, there are a small group of people who keep trying to pull the price up with 2k, 5k orders. But the price keeps falling.
It has been mentioned in some trade chat channels that there were hundreds of investors who bought in at 35k and 36k and are holding their stocks. So even if the price were to go up, there will be another flood of Technetium on the market around that mark.
I feel truly sorry for those who listened to Akita after the initial rise. Akita made tons of isk, but on the back of hundreds of players who thought 40k or 60k was just the start. It goes to show that with enough isk, even moon goo can be manipulated.
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Akita Tee
Jita Investments and Trade Firm
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:23:00 -
[830]
Edited by: Akita Tee on 15/01/2010 21:24:29
Originally by: EatMoreBeans You do realise dont you that the dotlan region maps showing moons were faked by some scrapheap folks to drive prices down so they can rebuy and make their isk again?
Check the time they were updated.
Theres only 213 tech moons in eve and they know it and lol at the eople falling for it
You sir are an idiot. First there are 230 on Dotlan, and new ones are added all the time. Second only half the north (Tech concentrated regions) are shown. and third, the leader of the NC stated that there was over 600 moons, I personally have charted 100 MM towers in Tribute, Venal and over 50 NC Pet Towers in Vale and Geminate. "To imitate the god of the people, when he acts like a fool, makes one a wise ass." |
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EatMoreBeans
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:33:00 -
[831]
Originally by: Akita Tee Edited by: Akita Tee on 15/01/2010 21:24:29
Originally by: EatMoreBeans You do realise dont you that the dotlan region maps showing moons were faked by some scrapheap folks to drive prices down so they can rebuy and make their isk again?
Check the time they were updated.
Theres only 213 tech moons in eve and they know it and lol at the eople falling for it
You sir are an idiot. First there are 230 on Dotlan, and new ones are added all the time. Second only half the north (Tech concentrated regions) are shown. and third, the leader of the NC stated that there was over 600 moons, I personally have charted 100 MM towers in Tribute, Venal and over 50 NC Pet Towers in Vale and Geminate.
The leader of one of eves richest regions made a comment that is bound to reduce tech prices to a level worthy of reinvestment. Unsuprisingly the dotlan moon analysis shows within this aliances regions lie the biggest concentration of these moons - far higher than other regions - and you just accept this information as gospel? If this IS the case and these moons are with the NC and NC pets what possible motivation could the leader of these entities have to tell you that the product of them is worth less than predicted? He'd keep his mouth shut and make a ton of isk.
Your all falling for his and others double bluff. He knows that there is no such amount of tech in his regions and that by telling you there is he can put the isk of the alliance into making a buck off your stupidity.
Do you realise that if an alliance put a titans value of isk into tech at the begining he could now supply a hundred people in his aliance with capital alts?
Do you further realise that having dropped his stock at 50k he is now manipulating your shallow knowledge to push the price down so he can rebuy with that isk at half the value he sold at?
Ride the storm if you like dropping your stock as fast as your convictions or hold true to yourself and realise that the scope for manipulation of the data that YOU are relying on is massive and that the ease with which the data WE are relying on is miniscule in comparison.
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raukosen
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:44:00 -
[832]
The NC doesn't have a leader lol
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Akita Tee
Jita Investments and Trade Firm
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:47:00 -
[833]
Originally by: EatMoreBeans
Originally by: Akita Tee Edited by: Akita Tee on 15/01/2010 21:24:29
Originally by: EatMoreBeans You do realise dont you that the dotlan region maps showing moons were faked by some scrapheap folks to drive prices down so they can rebuy and make their isk again?
Check the time they were updated.
Theres only 213 tech moons in eve and they know it and lol at the eople falling for it
You sir are an idiot. First there are 230 on Dotlan, and new ones are added all the time. Second only half the north (Tech concentrated regions) are shown. and third, the leader of the NC stated that there was over 600 moons, I personally have charted 100 MM towers in Tribute, Venal and over 50 NC Pet Towers in Vale and Geminate.
The leader of one of eves richest regions made a comment that is bound to reduce tech prices to a level worthy of reinvestment. Unsuprisingly the dotlan moon analysis shows within this aliances regions lie the biggest concentration of these moons - far higher than other regions - and you just accept this information as gospel? If this IS the case and these moons are with the NC and NC pets what possible motivation could the leader of these entities have to tell you that the product of them is worth less than predicted? He'd keep his mouth shut and make a ton of isk.
Your all falling for his and others double bluff. He knows that there is no such amount of tech in his regions and that by telling you there is he can put the isk of the alliance into making a buck off your stupidity.
Do you realise that if an alliance put a titans value of isk into tech at the begining he could now supply a hundred people in his aliance with capital alts?
Do you further realise that having dropped his stock at 50k he is now manipulating your shallow knowledge to push the price down so he can rebuy with that isk at half the value he sold at?
Ride the storm if you like dropping your stock as fast as your convictions or hold true to yourself and realise that the scope for manipulation of the data that YOU are relying on is massive and that the ease with which the data WE are relying on is miniscule in comparison.
Why would he rebuy? His alliance takes in 240k units of Tech every day... he doesn't need to buy any lol. You have no idea what your talking about. Those who own the moons are the ones who want the price high, so they can make profit, buy titans, pay sov costs.
And yes I know NC doesn't have "a leader" but the alliance head of the anchor of the NC could be simply called the leader. "To imitate the god of the people, when he acts like a fool, makes one a wise ass." |
Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:54:00 -
[834]
Look Beans,
It is not as easy as you think to manipulate a price down. If what you said was correct, and there is indeed only 213 moons in all of eve, we would all know about it. There would be a stampede to buy Technetium if that were the case.
It is however easy to fake demand with enough isk to buy up as much excess as possible to create the illusion of scarcity. What you are saying would be the systematic dropping of price by people who had large stockpiles, and everyone with large stockpiles sold at 69k, or would love to see 69k come again.
It just isn't possible on the scale you are claiming.
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EatMoreBeans
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Posted - 2010.01.15 21:55:00 -
[835]
Originally by: Akita Tee
Why would he rebuy? His alliance takes in 240k units of Tech every day... he doesn't need to buy any lol. You have no idea what your talking about. Those who own the moons are the ones who want the price high, so they can make profit, buy titans, pay sov costs.
And yes I know NC doesn't have "a leader" but the alliance head of the anchor of the NC could be simply called the leader.
/sigh
Let me make it pretty simple.
He doesn't have those moons. They dont exist.
However to dupe you dotlan was updated to make those moons exist. You dont see that they are the 100% regions? You are made to think that they exist because that would make tech worth less than thought, and so make it profitable to rebuy.
if the moons existed then he WOULD NOT TEL YOU ABOUT THEM
by your own adimition that would be pretty dumb.
Oh and lol at people taking this information from a forum log in with 10 posts to his name like its the truth. Jesus where is your head. If he was posting with his main on here i'd still be expecting people to wonder about his motivation but no
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EatMoreBeans
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Posted - 2010.01.15 22:00:00 -
[836]
Originally by: Queen Athena Look Beans,
It is not as easy as you think to manipulate a price down. If what you said was correct, and there is indeed only 213 moons in all of eve, we would all know about it. There would be a stampede to buy Technetium if that were the case.
It is however easy to fake demand with enough isk to buy up as much excess as possible to create the illusion of scarcity. What you are saying would be the systematic dropping of price by people who had large stockpiles, and everyone with large stockpiles sold at 69k, or would love to see 69k come again.
It just isn't possible on the scale you are claiming.
Easy to fake demand? Do you have any idea the amount of money it would take to do that? Do you really think its actual demand thats moving tech? Its driven by the want to make isk currently and demand wont make a difference for months just like the OP stated. What is hapening now is the economy finding an acceptable level for future demand which is very very different.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.15 22:00:00 -
[837]
Originally by: EatMoreBeans
Originally by: Akita Tee
Why would he rebuy? His alliance takes in 240k units of Tech every day... he doesn't need to buy any lol. You have no idea what your talking about. Those who own the moons are the ones who want the price high, so they can make profit, buy titans, pay sov costs.
And yes I know NC doesn't have "a leader" but the alliance head of the anchor of the NC could be simply called the leader.
/sigh
Let me make it pretty simple.
He doesn't have those moons. They dont exist.
However to dupe you dotlan was updated to make those moons exist. You dont see that they are the 100% regions? You are made to think that they exist because that would make tech worth less than thought, and so make it profitable to rebuy.
if the moons existed then he WOULD NOT TEL YOU ABOUT THEM
by your own adimition that would be pretty dumb.
Oh and lol at people taking this information from a forum log in with 10 posts to his name like its the truth. Jesus where is your head. If he was posting with his main on here i'd still be expecting people to wonder about his motivation but no
And like was stated, Impossible. There would not be millions of units for sale if there was only 213 moons as you state. You are seriously demented. Supply cannot be that low, or we would see astronomical prices of Tech, and we would have always had astronomical prices of Tech.
There are at the very least more Tech moons than Dysprosium moons, and there are more than 213 Dysprosium moons. The people telling you how many moons there are did not get that info from Dotlan, some of us actually went out and took a look for ourselves.
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EatMoreBeans
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Posted - 2010.01.15 22:10:00 -
[838]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: EatMoreBeans
Originally by: Akita Tee
Why would he rebuy? His alliance takes in 240k units of Tech every day... he doesn't need to buy any lol. You have no idea what your talking about. Those who own the moons are the ones who want the price high, so they can make profit, buy titans, pay sov costs.
And yes I know NC doesn't have "a leader" but the alliance head of the anchor of the NC could be simply called the leader.
/sigh
Let me make it pretty simple.
He doesn't have those moons. They dont exist.
However to dupe you dotlan was updated to make those moons exist. You dont see that they are the 100% regions? You are made to think that they exist because that would make tech worth less than thought, and so make it profitable to rebuy.
if the moons existed then he WOULD NOT TEL YOU ABOUT THEM
by your own adimition that would be pretty dumb.
Oh and lol at people taking this information from a forum log in with 10 posts to his name like its the truth. Jesus where is your head. If he was posting with his main on here i'd still be expecting people to wonder about his motivation but no
And like was stated, Impossible. There would not be millions of units for sale if there was only 213 moons as you state. You are seriously demented. Supply cannot be that low, or we would see astronomical prices of Tech, and we would have always had astronomical prices of Tech.
There are at the very least more Tech moons than Dysprosium moons, and there are more than 213 Dysprosium moons. The people telling you how many moons there are did not get that info from Dotlan, some of us actually went out and took a look for ourselves.
The only thing that was changed is which of these are used in production. The reason that dyspro was valuable was 100% of it was used.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.15 22:15:00 -
[839]
Originally by: EatMoreBeans Theres only 213 tech moons in eve and they know it and lol at the eople falling for it
The lowest remotely realistic Technetium moon count is somewhere around 370.
The final spreadsheets calculated things with an estimated overall EVE-wide moon count of around 410.
A generous estimate would put the total moon count somewhere around 450, with Technetium still a clear long-term bottleneck.
If there would be around 600 technetium moons in EVE, Technetium and Neodymium would share the bottleneck (with Technetium at roughly half the price of Neodymium if the bottleneck would be perfectly even). Technetium has gone up like mad, while Neodymium is kind of "meh" even after some heavy manipulation attempts by some people.
I could probably buy an "almost 500 technetium moons" scenario, but I'm not buying "over 600", no way in hell.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
EatMoreBeans
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Posted - 2010.01.15 22:21:00 -
[840]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: EatMoreBeans Theres only 213 tech moons in eve and they know it and lol at the eople falling for it
The lowest remotely realistic Technetium moon count is somewhere around 370.
The final spreadsheets calculated things with an estimated overall EVE-wide moon count of around 410.
A generous estimate would put the total moon count somewhere around 450, with Technetium still a clear long-term bottleneck.
If there would be around 600 technetium moons in EVE, Technetium and Neodymium would share the bottleneck (with Technetium at roughly half the price of Neodymium if the bottleneck would be perfectly even). Technetium has gone up like mad, while Neodymium is kind of "meh" even after some heavy manipulation attempts by some people.
I could probably buy an "almost 500 technetium moons" scenario, but I'm not buying "over 600", no way in hell.
Yours is a reasonable view I see but have you factored into that the large stocks held of tech when it wasn't as profitable as it now? These significant hldings will for some time scew the market until demand gets to such a level as to strip them down.
Nice to here some sense for a change.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.15 22:25:00 -
[841]
Edited by: Akita T on 15/01/2010 22:31:36
Originally by: EatMoreBeans
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: EatMoreBeans Theres only 213 tech moons in eve and they know it and lol at the eople falling for it
The lowest remotely realistic Technetium moon count is somewhere around 370.
The final spreadsheets calculated things with an estimated overall EVE-wide moon count of around 410.
A generous estimate would put the total moon count somewhere around 450, with Technetium still a clear long-term bottleneck.
If there would be around 600 technetium moons in EVE, Technetium and Neodymium would share the bottleneck (with Technetium at roughly half the price of Neodymium if the bottleneck would be perfectly even). Technetium has gone up like mad, while Neodymium is kind of "meh" even after some heavy manipulation attempts by some people.
I could probably buy an "almost 500 technetium moons" scenario, but I'm not buying "over 600", no way in hell.
Yours is a reasonable view I see but have you factored into that the large stocks held of tech when it wasn't as profitable as it now? These significant hldings will for some time scew the market until demand gets to such a level as to strip them down.
Nice to here some sense for a change.
Yeah, I (very roughly) guesstimated the stockpiled amounts a while back (post 519). The margin of error was huge, but at the extremes, we could be looking at anywhere from 100 to 500 million units "in reserve". Depending on how much there actually are, and depending on how prices evolve in the coming months, also depending on how much T2 production ramps back up, they should last for anywhere between 6 months to well over 2 years (with the most likely guesstimated number around 9 months) before we're at the "practical extraction bottleneck" scenario.
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.01.21 08:54:00 -
[842]
I thought I'd post my experiences with Tech so far and a little mild number crunching to try and determine where it's going.
Akita's analysis is very detailed and stands up to investigation. However, I believe given the information we have available now, a month after dominion release, the future path of tech can be derived from data and analysis that is nowhere near as dense.
So, I was a little late on the whole tech thing. By the time this thread had exposed the possibility of tech going crazy, I'd already invested virtually all my capital into fullerides and the racial capacitors and microprocessors. I sold some of that stock early so that I could get in on tech as well. Eventually, I bought in at around 22k pu.
I (foolishly?) did not sell as tech went up. Went it came back down I thought I'd just wait for the inevitable rise. However, then I began to doubt... There were two big holes in the tech boom story. One was the true number of tech moons and the other was the existing volume of tech stockpiled in hangers.
We know that even the upper limit of tech moon numbers would still make tech a bottleneck, estimates of existing stockpiles of tech are in the hundreds of millions, potentially, enough to supply the market for years.
While tech was still above my buy-in price (around 29k), I figured I may as well get out of the market and wait to see what happened. If it went down then I'd still have made isk. If it went up then I could by back in with (hopefully) not too much profit loss.
However, I then did a little thinking:
Dysprosium, when it was trading at around 100k pu, was shifting about 250k units per day in Jita. That equates to the output of around 100 dyspro moons. Dotlan shows 139 dyspro moons in eve so Jita trade volume accounted for around 72% of the possible dyspro production.
Promethium, when it was trading at around 50k pu, was also shifting about 250k units per day in Jita. That equates to the output of around 100 prom moons. Dotlan shows 180 prom moons in eve so Jita trade volume accounted for around 55% of the possible prom production.
Technetium, right now, is moving around 1 mil units per day (when big speculation spikes aren't going on). That works out to around 400 technetium moons. working from the numbers for dypro and prom, that implies there could be as many as approx 555 tech moons to see dyspro-like prices and approx 727 tech moons to see prom-like prices.
727 is clearly way above the maximum number of technetium moons in eve.
Therefore, it is only a matter of time. Based on this (and all the other evidence like nanotrans and fullerides prices being so high, akita's original analysis, etc) I bought back in.
DISCLAIMER: This weak-ass analysis is clearly a steaming pile of horse dung. Invest at your own risk. --------------------------------------
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Grozen
Caldari Beacon Institute and Industrial
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Posted - 2010.01.21 16:12:00 -
[843]
I'm observing this just out of curiosity but i don't see why would i put my money in one basket when the tech can't even bring short term profits.If the tech is due for rise then the moment to buy won't be now. knowledge is power |
Business Classy
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Posted - 2010.01.24 18:18:00 -
[844]
The current situation is quite interesting. Every now and again a big buy happens, almost certainly by producers, which takes prices up to 37k or so, but there's no confidence in it so pretty much instantly a bunch of people still holding stock show up to put their stuff on the market.
It seems to me 'speculation' right now is saying that the price should be low and is keeping prices down, where before it had caused them to rise so ludicrously fast. I wonder what it would take to re-inflate confidence?
[disclaimer: I'm a 'Tech will be 60k+ by march' believer]
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.01.24 18:24:00 -
[845]
Originally by: Business Classy The current situation is quite interesting. Every now and again a big buy happens, almost certainly by producers, which takes prices up to 37k or so, but there's no confidence in it so pretty much instantly a bunch of people still holding stock show up to put their stuff on the market.
It seems to me 'speculation' right now is saying that the price should be low and is keeping prices down, where before it had caused them to rise so ludicrously fast. I wonder what it would take to re-inflate confidence?
[disclaimer: I'm a 'Tech will be 60k+ by march' believer]
My observations from watching it over the last month:
Originally by: SetrakDark The manipulation seems to be maintaining a floor of 25k (for buy orders) from what I've seen. If the manipulator(s) give up before stockpiles dry up (whenever that is), then the price will fall right through 25k one weekend.
Anyone who is interested can watch the big blocking orders get nuked before they get filled, then the subsequent spamming of multiple small orders, which has been the MO these last 4 weekends.
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Grozen
Caldari Beacon Institute and Industrial
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Posted - 2010.01.26 08:02:00 -
[846]
The current trend is still going down and last week nobody bought huge amount which is why we're seeing 25k now. knowledge is power |
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.01.26 13:11:00 -
[847]
Originally by: Grozen The current trend is still going down and last week nobody bought huge amount which is why we're seeing 25k now.
Yes, very quiet on the tech front this weekend.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.26 14:06:00 -
[848]
Originally by: Akita T say hello to 300k200k ISK/unit for technetium !
Quoting for Hilarity
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Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.26 14:08:00 -
[849]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Akita T say hello to 300k200k ISK/unit for technetium !
Quoting for Hilarity
Originally by: Akita T Depending on how much there actually are, and depending on how prices evolve in the coming months, also depending on how much T2 production ramps back up, they should last for anywhere between 6 months to well over 2 years (with the most likely guesstimated number around 9 months) before we're at the "practical extraction bottleneck" scenario.
Quoting for clarity.
Originally by: Akita T BTW, if you see God when you're clutching for your chest due to sudden realization you have no chance to get out of this with your wallet intact tell him he still owes me money
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.26 14:12:00 -
[850]
Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Akita T say hello to 300k200k ISK/unit for technetium !
Quoting for Hilarity
Originally by: Akita T Depending on how much there actually are, and depending on how prices evolve in the coming months, also depending on how much T2 production ramps back up, they should last for anywhere between 6 months to well over 2 years (with the most likely guesstimated number around 9 months) before we're at the "practical extraction bottleneck" scenario.
Quoting for clarity.
Quoting in a fanboi thread
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Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.26 14:17:00 -
[851]
Originally by: Queen Athena Quoting in a fanboi thread
You can't read, so that makes me a fanboi?
Okay, whatever floats your boat.
Originally by: Akita T BTW, if you see God when you're clutching for your chest due to sudden realization you have no chance to get out of this with your wallet intact tell him he still owes me money
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.26 14:26:00 -
[852]
No, your a fanboi because you cannot see just how wrong he was. Because you post stupid things like this:
Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: Noonesoski
Originally by: Akita T percentually
Is that even a word?
It's Akita T. He is allowed to make up words on a whim.
But percental might be closer to what you are looking for.
And you probably still believe in that BS theory that this is all stockpiles. Akita T should have listened to this guy:
Originally by: Verite Rendition Edited by: Verite Rendition on 03/11/2009 15:25:52 Akita, I highly doubt your moon data is correct for the R32s.
1) They're racially distributed. Gurista space is heavy on Technetium (Deklein: 19 Tech, 2 Caes, 0 Haf/Merc; don't trust Dotlan), etc.
2) R32s are under-reported because they're generally worth so little.
I don't have any reason to believe there are as few Technetium moons as you list. I'd expect all of the R32s to be around in equal numbers.
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Dretzle Omega
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.26 14:43:00 -
[853]
Originally by: Queen Athena No, your a fanboi because you cannot see just how wrong he was. Because you post stupid things like this:
Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: Noonesoski
Originally by: Akita T percentually
Is that even a word?
It's Akita T. He is allowed to make up words on a whim.
But percental might be closer to what you are looking for.
So you don't like jokes, even when I was making fun of Akita T at the same time in that joke? Gotcha.
Originally by: Akita T BTW, if you see God when you're clutching for your chest due to sudden realization you have no chance to get out of this with your wallet intact tell him he still owes me money
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2010.01.29 00:17:00 -
[854]
I just thought I'd mention that Technetium looks to fall below Dysprosium within the next few days.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2010.01.29 02:34:00 -
[855]
A lot of purchases have slowed recently, due to the invasion of Delve I think. There is a general T2 and moon goo slowdown. This is part of what has precipitated the Tech crash along with other stuff.
There is an additional problem. Lets say there is 100m units of tech out there and it moves 800k a day consumed, and 600k is mined. At that rate it will take 500 days for the tech market to clear up. There isn't a good way to know how much is hiding in people's hangars. So it could be a year or even 2 years to reach some kind of tight situation in the market, or longer. The obvious conclusion here is that high ends are over priced right now. The only ways to realistically clear this market is to significantly increase T2 production or for some people to purchase vast amounts at a discount and hold them for 18 months or 2 years. That will not happen at current prices. If we get 3b isk jump freighters and 200m isk marauders, this will clean up much better. I doubt that will happen however. The T2 ship market will remain sluggish until this is resolved.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2010.01.29 03:50:00 -
[856]
Edited by: Tiberizzle on 29/01/2010 03:50:34 Hey, that's cool, no need to explain. I was just updating everyone on the price movement.
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Tagami Wasp
Caldari Sarz'na Khumatari Ushra'Khan
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Posted - 2010.01.29 06:04:00 -
[857]
Lot's of moons changing hands MD gang, how is it going to tilt?
btw, how big will be the stockpiles' firesales? ------------ Railgun performance required fix: - +15% railgun damage modifier - +10% PG for Caldari railgun ships |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.29 07:34:00 -
[858]
Originally by: Tesal A lot of purchases have slowed recently, due to the invasion of Delve I think. There is a general T2 and moon goo slowdown. This is part of what has precipitated the Tech crash along with other stuff.[...]The only ways to realistically clear this market is to significantly increase T2 production[...]
Yeah, people rushed into the nanotransistors reaction niche, and now everybody's trying to dump their was-hoping-to-make-a-crapload stocks, only to find out there's not enough manufacturers to gobble up the product, thus crashing the price hard from its previous high. At the same time, racial microprocessors sell for well over 20k a piece easily, while only costing under 17k to manufacture at component sell price levels... that's over 5 mil/day/blueprint AT WORST for a cheap-as-heck blueprint even fully researched, which doesn't need that many extra skills either... you'd think a lot more people would hurry up and pick up the slack.
_
We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Bangbroo
Ministry of War
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Posted - 2010.01.29 08:58:00 -
[859]
Wow tech went over 9 million isk/u in Amarr!
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2010.01.29 09:05:00 -
[860]
Ok, here's a wild shot: Tech has hit bottom at 24k. There are 1.2 mil units in buy orders between 23k and 24k. So it will start rising slowly from now on (unless of course some huge sell order is dumped at 25k), and the weekend will maybe boost it further.
Just my 2 cents about the market balance at this minute.
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MD stock market / Audits 001 / MD investees |
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Victriferusianus
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Posted - 2010.01.29 09:57:00 -
[861]
I don't know what technetium will end up costing. I hope a lot, since I have invested in it, but whatever happens, I have to say it has been fun to invest in it. Buying, selling, reading this thread and others and watching the market and hoping for the best has been quite a ride. |
Ji Sama
Caldari Tash-Murkon Prime Industries United Corporations Of Modern Eve
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Posted - 2010.01.29 10:14:00 -
[862]
Its still crashing, looks like someone is getting desperate. Ironically im sure that Akita cashed out when it was on its highest :D Knowing all to well, that the heavy speculation would cause a huge market crash :)
GJ Akita!
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Ante Christ
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Posted - 2010.01.29 11:32:00 -
[863]
Edited by: Ante Christ on 29/01/2010 11:35:22 Maybe I missed something. I really just did not feel like reading through 29 pages. Maybe you can better explain, or even shorten up your explanation, as to how watching one specific region will give an accurate price on something? I have been playing the game for almost two weeks now. I buy most of my stuff out of Jita to sell in other regions. Jita has the cheapest prices on most of the items.
Ji Sama Market Crash is worth congratulating for? Creating an unstable market is reckless. =/ Massive amounts of profit can be made simply off playing the system, not manipulating it. Creating an unstable market creates fluctuating prices which very in larger ranges then normal. At this low-end point most people would buy them all up to even it back out to where it was. Hold onto them and slowly let them back out.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2010.01.29 12:57:00 -
[864]
Originally by: Ji Sama Ironically im sure that Akita cashed out when it was on its highest :D
Many of us did, but now I am buying again at 24k.
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MD stock market / Audits 001 / MD investees |
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.01.29 13:46:00 -
[865]
Originally by: Cista2 Ok, here's a wild shot: Tech has hit bottom at 24k. There are 1.2 mil units in buy orders between 23k and 24k. So it will start rising slowly from now on (unless of course some huge sell order is dumped at 25k), and the weekend will maybe boost it further.
Just my 2 cents about the market balance at this minute.
Half of those buy orders will be nuked or adjusted down to 21k before they are filled.
Tech buy orders are an illusion.
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.01.29 15:05:00 -
[866]
"sky's the limit on technetium (long term)"
but in the short-term the sky is falling
roffle roffle roffle
this is going to be an interesting weekend for tech.
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2010.01.29 16:08:00 -
[867]
Originally by: SetrakDark this is going to be an interesting weekend for tech.
Yup, and a 600,000 unit sell order just killed by reckless prediction
Well, seems I will buy in at 22K tomorrow instead.
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MD stock market / Audits 001 / MD investees |
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.01.29 16:11:00 -
[868]
Originally by: Cista2 Yup, and a 600,000 unit sell order just killed by reckless prediction
That's what I was roffling about. We have to be reaching the breaking point where everyone who can't stomach the short term downturn start dumping their speculation stocks.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2010.01.29 21:10:00 -
[869]
Carbides are off their highs too.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.01.29 22:16:00 -
[870]
PANIC!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.29 22:46:00 -
[871]
Go, go, technetium reverse spike to 10k per unit !
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.29 22:47:00 -
[872]
Originally by: SetrakDark PANIC!
It is not panic, it is what people were saying would happen when all those billions of isk worth of speculated buyers had to sell their "money maker". We are seeing supply and demand start to work now on this market.
Last time I checked Akita still had billions locked up in Technetium, cannot be a happy MD guy now can he?
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.01.29 22:54:00 -
[873]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: SetrakDark PANIC!
It is not panic
I know, that's why I'm telling them to start.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.01.29 22:54:00 -
[874]
Originally by: SetrakDark
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: SetrakDark PANIC!
It is not panic
I know, that's why I'm telling them to start.
Good idea
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Lieutenant Obvious
Thundercats RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2010.01.30 04:16:00 -
[875]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: SetrakDark PANIC!
Last time I checked Akita still had billions locked up in Technetium, cannot be a happy MD guy now can he?
He effectively breaks even if he has to sell his entire Tech stock at 5k... so tbh I don't think he cares too much at all considering he would already have liquidated SOME and has always said from day 1 that it's a long term investment with huge peaks and troughs. Pretty much exactly what everyone else is currently stating is happening and pointing and laughing?
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.01.30 04:20:00 -
[876]
Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious and has always said from day 1 that it's a long term investment with huge peaks and troughs
Which has been stated numerous times, in one form or another, but trolls will be trolls.
Don't waste your time.
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Caassimolar
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Posted - 2010.01.30 04:40:00 -
[877]
Told you.
Now someone please sort through this thread and find the names of the morons who supported Akita's bull and carry it around our signatures to never trust these morons on MD.
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Swift Kanye
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Posted - 2010.01.30 05:02:00 -
[878]
Some people can't differentiate between BEING PLAIN WRONG and LONG TERM INVESTMENTS.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.01.30 05:03:00 -
[879]
Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: SetrakDark PANIC!
Last time I checked Akita still had billions locked up in Technetium, cannot be a happy MD guy now can he?
He effectively breaks even if he has to sell his entire Tech stock at 5k... so tbh I don't think he cares too much at all considering he would already have liquidated SOME and has always said from day 1 that it's a long term investment with huge peaks and troughs. Pretty much exactly what everyone else is currently stating is happening and pointing and laughing?
No, we are laughing because because Akita predicted this slide and (apparently) didn't use the opportunity to sell out (at least partially) at the peak and average down by scooping up all the stuff that is being dumped now. We are laughing at the fools that bought at the peak because the people that were already fully invested kept plugging tech. We were laughing at the folks that were pumping but claimed not to be dumping.
There has been a lot of foolishness in this speculative frenzy, starting with Akita giving away her analysis for free instead of quietly buying up as much as she could before going public, and her running up the price on the day before Dominion. If you are long-term bullish on a commodity, but you expect volatility to be high, the most rational course of action is to sell-off partially when prices are high and buying back after crashes. You could get caught not fully invested if and when prices take off, but over time you will improve your return because you could have easily doubled your stake during this recent sell-off.
You guys claim to be following the fundamentals of supply and demand, but instead you are getting hung up following the trend like technical analysts. Making an accurate prediction is one thing, but executing a trading strategy is another.
Look, tons of money has been made in tech. Just multiply size of the stockpile by the price increase and you can figure that trillions of isk have already been made. Since a lot of people lost money in this crash, that means there's even more profits in the hands of the rest of you. The real question is not whether you've made a profit, but why you don't have a larger piece of it. I'm thinking the ones that have made the most are not the ones posting in this thread.
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Drexciyian
The Water Margin Tech
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Posted - 2010.01.30 06:15:00 -
[880]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tesal A lot of purchases have slowed recently, due to the invasion of Delve I think. There is a general T2 and moon goo slowdown. This is part of what has precipitated the Tech crash along with other stuff.[...]The only ways to realistically clear this market is to significantly increase T2 production[...]
Yeah, people rushed into the nanotransistors reaction niche, and now everybody's trying to dump their was-hoping-to-make-a-crapload stocks, only to find out there's not enough manufacturers to gobble up the product, thus crashing the price hard from its previous high. At the same time, racial microprocessors sell for well over 20k a piece easily, while only costing under 17k to manufacture at component sell price levels... that's over 5 mil/day/blueprint AT WORST for a cheap-as-heck blueprint even fully researched, which doesn't need that many extra skills either... you'd think a lot more people would hurry up and pick up the slack.
shhhhh
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.30 12:59:00 -
[881]
Originally by: Claire Voyant There has been a lot of foolishness in this speculative frenzy, starting with Akita giving away her analysis for free instead of quietly buying up as much as she could before going public, and her running up the price on the day before Dominion. If you are long-term bullish on a commodity, but you expect volatility to be high, the most rational course of action is to sell-off partially when prices are high and buying back after crashes. You could get caught not fully invested if and when prices take off, but over time you will improve your return because you could have easily doubled your stake during this recent sell-off.
You severely underestimate my in-game laziness If I sum up the time spent in-game on TQ ever since the start of my analysis until now, I doubt it comes up as over 20 hours, and half of that would be chatting with corpies.
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
Ndauthina
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Posted - 2010.01.30 18:47:00 -
[882]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Claire Voyant There has been a lot of foolishness in this speculative frenzy, starting with Akita giving away her analysis for free instead of quietly buying up as much as she could before going public, and her running up the price on the day before Dominion. If you are long-term bullish on a commodity, but you expect volatility to be high, the most rational course of action is to sell-off partially when prices are high and buying back after crashes. You could get caught not fully invested if and when prices take off, but over time you will improve your return because you could have easily doubled your stake during this recent sell-off.
You severely underestimate my in-game laziness If I sum up the time spent in-game on TQ ever since the start of my analysis until now, I doubt it comes up as over 20 hours, and half of that would be chatting with corpies.
Wait, aren't you supposed to be running an IPO? I am sure your investors are thrilled to think you are not logging in enough to notice trends in the market on the core of your own business plan.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.01.30 19:43:00 -
[883]
Originally by: Ndauthina Wait, aren't you supposed to be running an IPO? I am sure your investors are thrilled to think you are not logging in enough to notice trends in the market on the core of your own business plan.
It doesn't take that much in-game time to run a profitable long-term trade. I seldom adjust orders more than once a day, many times just once a week. Even in the worst imaginable case scenario people will still get what was promised.
Besides, it was a bond, not an IPO. You know, "bond", as in, fixed return at the agreed-upon date... as opposed to "IPO" where people get a percentage of the profits ? The big difference would be how much cash I end up with at the end, they always get the same result no matter how well I fare.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2010.01.30 21:38:00 -
[884]
Originally by: Akita T
Yeah, people rushed into the nanotransistors reaction niche...
This also caused a shortage in fulleride production (as would-be fulleride producers moved to nanotrans) resulting in the fulleride price spike we've seen over the past few days.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2010.01.30 21:53:00 -
[885]
Tech levels of support right now, 16k and 6k. This is being driven by large blocking sell orders which can be lifted at any time. So your guess is as good as mine if and when they get pulled. The moment they get pulled the market should flatten out a bit, right now its in free fall.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.01.31 18:28:00 -
[886]
Wondering about the impact on this market resulting from the changing fortunes of war. The initial shock of the blitzkrieg against the NC has been depleted and the war seems to be moving into one of attrition which suits the NC strategically. No fail cascade on the horizon.
My thoughts are. 1) Demand will steadily strengthen, driven slightly by the war but mostly by a post patch return to production and general economic growth. I see no reason for any further spikes in demand. The speculators have either taken their profit or been burned. 2) The short term supply (days->weeks) is unlikely to change significantly either way. Surplus stocks already on the market is likely to keep the price very soft. 3) The medium term supply (weeks->months) is likely to steadily increase as the NC seek to finance their war and are able to free surplus/fresh supplies. I do not see demand outstripping supply enough to consume the surplus stocks very quickly. The price will remain soft for a significant period. - Speculative. 4) Long term (months->years) the NC gaining a very strong monopoly on supply and ultimately monopoly behaviour like preferential supply arrangements & price gouging. - Highly speculative 5) We will not see peak production until the war has gone cold or is over.
Questions. i) What proportion of stockpiles did the price spike shake out onto the market. ii) What proportion of current surplus of supply will be stockpiled by producers hedging. iii) Are there any other opponents of NC that could regain the momentum (probably a question for W&T). iv) Are the rumoured new allies for NC astute enough to include preferential supply arrangements in their agreements.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.01 18:56:00 -
[887]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Wondering about the impact on this market resulting from the changing fortunes of war. The initial shock of the blitzkrieg against the NC has been depleted and the war seems to be moving into one of attrition which suits the NC strategically. No fail cascade on the horizon.
My thoughts are. 1) Demand will steadily strengthen, driven slightly by the war but mostly by a post patch return to production and general economic growth. I see no reason for any further spikes in demand. The speculators have either taken their profit or been burned. 2) The short term supply (days->weeks) is unlikely to change significantly either way. Surplus stocks already on the market is likely to keep the price very soft. 3) The medium term supply (weeks->months) is likely to steadily increase as the NC seek to finance their war and are able to free surplus/fresh supplies. I do not see demand outstripping supply enough to consume the surplus stocks very quickly. The price will remain soft for a significant period. - Speculative. 4) Long term (months->years) the NC gaining a very strong monopoly on supply and ultimately monopoly behaviour like preferential supply arrangements & price gouging. - Highly speculative 5) We will not see peak production until the war has gone cold or is over.
Questions. i) What proportion of stockpiles did the price spike shake out onto the market. ii) What proportion of current surplus of supply will be stockpiled by producers hedging. iii) Are there any other opponents of NC that could regain the momentum (probably a question for W&T). iv) Are the rumoured new allies for NC astute enough to include preferential supply arrangements in their agreements.
What no response at all? no lolz you noob, or is it so blindingly obvious I shouldn't have wasted my time? What? Maybe I should have started a new thread, because you're all bored of this one ? Somebody say something please.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.01 19:43:00 -
[888]
Edited by: Akita T on 01/02/2010 19:46:19
The thread did get rather long, so people don't check it very often... a couple of hours, even half a day could go by before a decent reply to something so "meaty".
Overall, though, it's not like you're saying a lot that wasn't already said in different words beforehand by several others, just not with such... political precision... and "concentration" of summarized data. So those that agree won't hurry to post their agreement, those that disagree probably need a little more time. Also, nobody "in the know" has any serious interest to answer your questions, especially 3 and 4, the 1st can be guesstimated by looking at Forge market graphs, and the second can only be answered by people that probably don't read this thread too often.
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We are recruiting | Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
volhar
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Posted - 2010.02.01 23:56:00 -
[889]
Fullerides are at 1200 p/u with only a day's worth of trading volume left... meanwhile tech has been in free fall... just saying
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Cista2
Jita Direct Sale
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Posted - 2010.02.02 14:46:00 -
[890]
As a curiosity, Platinum tech is now more expensive than Technetium, which must be rather unusual...
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MD stock market / Audits 001 / MD investees |
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.02.02 15:42:00 -
[891]
Originally by: Cista2 As a curiosity, Platinum tech is now more expensive than Technetium, which must be rather unusual...
Maybe unusual, but hardly remarkable. Speculators have been dumping tech, while plat-tech is something that is mainly traded by producers. It is not liquid enough, being an intermediate product, for speculators to deal with.
All it means is that people who want to make nanotransistors or fullerides are more likely to buy raw tech than plat-tech. Of course this hasn't really changed either because the cost to make plat-tech is simply the average of the cost of tech and platinum plus fuel costs, and that line was crossed some time ago.
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Tetovo
Caldari White Talon Enterprises New Bastion
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Posted - 2010.02.02 22:22:00 -
[892]
Edited by: Tetovo on 02/02/2010 22:22:48 Edited by: Tetovo on 02/02/2010 22:22:39 so market gurus, when does this turn into a sizable price drop in tech 2 ships?
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.02.02 22:32:00 -
[893]
Originally by: Tetovo Edited by: Tetovo on 02/02/2010 22:22:48 Edited by: Tetovo on 02/02/2010 22:22:39 so market gurus, when does this turn into a sizable price drop in tech 2 ships?
When goo prices stabilize is the impression that I've been given.
Don't hold your breath.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.02 23:32:00 -
[894]
Originally by: Tetovo
so market gurus, when does this turn into a sizable price drop in tech 2 ships?
You shouldn't expect any sizable price drop resulting from this; the current surplus stocks and low price of Technetium mean it's effect on T2 pricing is about the limit it's likely to achieve or close to it (give or take an items production cycle).
There will probably be some continued downward pressure from the emergence of T3 and post patch increases in production.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2010.02.03 07:48:00 -
[895]
Edited by: Mahke on 03/02/2010 07:50:40
Originally by: Tetovo Edited by: Tetovo on 02/02/2010 22:22:48 Edited by: Tetovo on 02/02/2010 22:22:39 so market gurus, when does this turn into a sizable price drop in tech 2 ships?
Turns out we were all wrong: the bottleneck is in REACTION TOWERS, not any specific piece of goo.
Hence huge reaction profits and everything crashing.
In other words, dropping raw prices aren't going to drive t2 ship prices: reaction profit will.
It's still possible it'll change in the future as reaction can be expanded and the tech pile will eventually run through.
edit: yes, I realize I didn't really answer your question; just saying that looking at raws alone won't give you any useful information on finished product.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.03 18:06:00 -
[896]
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 03/02/2010 18:10:42
Originally by: Akita T
Some salient stuff...
Actually if you look closely at the times I did leave it a day, not 28mins.
AIH the questions were rhetorical, I didn't expect any direct answers but I did want the people who did know the answers to a) think about those questions and b)hoped to shake out some titbits of intel, particularly who iv) was. I didn't know on Sunday, but I'm pretty confident I do now and when it becomes common knowledge it's going to surprise people. The other answers i) Mostly, ii) Little, iii) Yes but not disposed to become involved.
Originally by: Mahke
Turns out we were all wrong: the bottleneck is in REACTION TOWERS, not any specific piece of goo.
Hence huge reaction profits and everything crashing.
In other words, dropping raw prices aren't going to drive t2 ship prices: reaction profit will.
It's still possible it'll change in the future as reaction can be expanded and the tech pile will eventually run through.
edit: yes, I realize I didn't really answer your question; just saying that looking at raws alone won't give you any useful information on finished product.
That is an intriguing proposition.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.03 18:07:00 -
[897]
Originally by: Mahke Turns out we were all wrong: the bottleneck is in REACTION TOWERS, not any specific piece of goo. Hence huge reaction profits and everything crashing.
Ayup... see here : Linkage to S&I thread Screenshot...
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.02.04 18:48:00 -
[898]
Technetium is on the rise again.
Now that the northern territories with all the technetium moons are under the firm grip of either Morsus Mihi or Razor, they are going to create an artificial shortage so that the prices will explode as well as their income.
Everyone assumes that all the technetium available is sold or used up, but that is not an valid assupmtion. A monopoly always tries to increase the price instead of satisfying the demand. And it makes sense: why giving the (potential) enemy cheap materials while you can earn more holding back the materials due to higher prices and at the same time hurting the (potential) enemy.
Well, we will see I guess. |
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.02.04 18:53:00 -
[899]
The last week of crash and spike had nothing to do with fundamentals.
Trying to glean any information about actual supply and demand from price behavior is pointless with all the manipulation going on.
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Silares
Balderfrey Enterprises The Phoenix. Consortium
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Posted - 2010.02.04 20:59:00 -
[900]
So, with the NC being unchallenged up north and the majority of technetium being in their hands, its a good assumption to make that they will impose some sort of monopoly on tech in the near future?
So at the moment, we're seeing the cheapest technetium is going to drop to until the stockpiles are entirely used up. Then once these stockpiles are depleted the technetium market will be entirely at the NCs mercy...
Do I understand this correctly?
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.04 22:17:00 -
[901]
Originally by: Silares So, with the NC being unchallenged up north and the majority of technetium being in their hands, its a good assumption to make that they will impose some sort of monopoly on tech in the near future?
So at the moment, we're seeing the cheapest technetium is going to drop to until the stockpiles are entirely used up. Then once these stockpiles are depleted the technetium market will be entirely at the NCs mercy...
Do I understand this correctly?
Yep, that's about the sum of it. The key unanswered question is how long will the stocks last. Any shortage of reactions towers can be fixed and will only slow down the deletion of stocks. If I was a major manufacturer I would be watching the graphs very closely and Hedging against the rise.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.05 12:13:00 -
[902]
On the other hand, in the guys that have a near-monopoly right now would force a LOW ENOUGH price for technetium long enough (a price that is still attractive to most other stockpile owners) so that almost everybody else but them depletes their stockpiles (since T2 production would pick up faster with a stable price), and afterwards they can jack up prices even higher than they could right now. Of course, there's always the risk CCP does something before that happens leaving them with huge worthless stockpiles, so the safer way would be to set a reasonably high but still very lucrative price level. Risk management, such a pain, eh ?
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.05 13:24:00 -
[903]
Genuis or Madness?
NC have set their pricing for Technetium at 30k per unit. This is very strange price to choose. Is this an indication of ignorance or genius.
Executive Summary - The short version Dense Sovereignty is now difficult & expensive to defend. Alliances need to be more selective about holding sov. Leaving more space for renters. NC has lots of renters. NC has lots of Technetium. Great prospects. The NC pricing is well above current market rate but well below long term prospects. Are they trying to gouging the current over supplied market which is madness. Or are the up to something more subtle.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.05 13:40:00 -
[904]
Originally by: Akita T On the other hand, in the guys that have a near-monopoly right now would force a LOW ENOUGH price for technetium long enough (a price that is still attractive to most other stockpile owners) so that almost everybody else but them depletes their stockpiles (since T2 production would pick up faster with a stable price), and afterwards they can jack up prices even higher than they could right now.
I'm thing along similar lines, it is a strategy least likely to provoke the nerf-bat. Stimulating T2 production increases the size of the market they will eventually control. If that was the NC's plan I would expect to see some price support to make the current price a floor.
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Grozen
Caldari Centus Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.05 15:34:00 -
[905]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Originally by: Akita T On the other hand, in the guys that have a near-monopoly right now would force a LOW ENOUGH price for technetium long enough (a price that is still attractive to most other stockpile owners) so that almost everybody else but them depletes their stockpiles (since T2 production would pick up faster with a stable price), and afterwards they can jack up prices even higher than they could right now.
I'm thing along similar lines, it is a strategy least likely to provoke the nerf-bat. Stimulating T2 production increases the size of the market they will eventually control. If that was the NC's plan I would expect to see some price support to make the current price a floor.
Or they could drive the prices trough the roof first and then lower then them enough to enter the stage you described. knowledge is power |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.05 16:00:00 -
[906]
Originally by: Grozen
Or they could drive the prices trough the roof first and then lower then them enough to enter the stage you described.
Why? It would take time, ISK and effort to overcome the stockpile and drive the price through the roof now.
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Grozen
Caldari Centus Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.05 16:01:00 -
[907]
I think they got all those 3factors in hand but everything is in the hands of their alliance leaders and nobody knows how smart they are or not knowledge is power |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.05 16:19:00 -
[908]
Originally by: Grozen Or they could drive the prices trough the roof first and then lower then them enough to enter the stage you described.
Meanwhile, they might not sell a single unit as long as stockpiles exist in other hands (so they might as well take a "we do not sell at all and stockpile instead" approach), and CURRENT stockpile holders other than them get rich. To add insult to injury, they would still have to defend a "valuable resource" with zero additional funds available for defense, and risk losing some moons in the process.
Also, since T2 production will be overall lower as prices again race upwards out of control and people get a bit more careful in their purchases, the stockpile exhaustion would be slower compared to the scenario where they set a low price for now, and in the long run, delay the time where they can extract a truckload of money. That not even talking about the increased likelihood CCP would step in sooner rather than later and do something to technetium as screams keep piling up, so by the time they would have projected insane profits, no significant profits are to be had at all anymore.
So the only question is, how much need for capital do they have now as opposed to some hypothetical future, and how much are they willing to gamble on how long would it take CCP to intervene above a certain price point.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.05 17:13:00 -
[909]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari Genuis or Madness?
NC have set their pricing for Technetium at 30k per unit. This is very strange price to choose. Is this an indication of ignorance or genius.
Executive Summary - The short version Dense Sovereignty is now difficult & expensive to defend. Alliances need to be more selective about holding sov. Leaving more space for renters. NC has lots of renters. NC has lots of Technetium. Great prospects. The NC pricing is well above current market rate but well below long term prospects. Are they trying to gouging the current over supplied market which is madness. Or are the up to something more subtle.
This was going be a much longer post considering various factors when I got bored then distracted, so I'm just going to brain dump some factors at work.
Moon mineral changes reduced the income of most Alliances. Dense Sovereignty is more expensive. Sparse Sovereignty is cheaper. The biggest Alliances need to either reduce costs, increase income or both. When doing this they are eating their reserves. Alliances need to reduce or concentrate their Sovereignty.
The new sovereignty model favours alliances that take a low density approach and do not waste cash on universal high sov. If large Alliances want to keep all their holdings at high security they need to bridge the income gap. I can't see where that income can come from. Increased alliance fees won't be accepted. As far as I can see they have one option, take a low density approach to Sov, release non critical systems and back waters to renters, not waste cash on universal high sov. (An interesting parallel with the empire security model). This reduces their costs and increase income from rent.
The larger the alliance the bigger this problem, which could explain -A- attempt to separate CVA from it's holders and it's apparent reluctance to take take sov from CVA or NC.
NC doesn't need those renters, because it has Tech, but what if it is trying to leverage tech to entice renters to it's space, it harms the economy of most of it's largest rivals.
Those renters need an income, the most obvious source is reaction POS. That 30k internal price (if fixed for a duration) might just be the blue pill needed to make that happen
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.05 17:42:00 -
[910]
Originally by: Grozen I think they got all those 3factors in hand but everything is in the hands of their alliance leaders and nobody knows how smart they are or not
It isn't smart to use a high risk strategy, when a low risk strategy is available that offers the same rewards.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.02.05 19:26:00 -
[911]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari Genuis or Madness?
NC have set their pricing for Technetium at 30k per unit.
Is there a source for this?
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.02.05 19:29:00 -
[912]
Ya, this sounds like more pointless attempts to talk it up or down.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.05 20:15:00 -
[913]
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 05/02/2010 20:17:34
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Wyke Mossari Genuis or Madness?
NC have set their pricing for Technetium at 30k per unit.
Is there a source for this?
I'm not willing to disclose anything about my source.
Consider it a proposition if you are more comfortable with it that way.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.02.05 20:22:00 -
[914]
Originally by: Akita T Meanwhile, they might not sell a single unit as long as stockpiles exist in other hands (so they might as well take a "we do not sell at all and stockpile instead" approach), and CURRENT stockpile holders other than them get rich. To add insult to injury, they would still have to defend a "valuable resource" with zero additional funds available for defense, and risk losing some moons in the process.
This is what happens when you ignore the fundamental rule of trading, BL/SH. Supply and demand are like forces of nature pushing prices to an equilbrium. Market players can push back, either up or down, but prices will eventually correct. You need to learn to ignore the trend and pick your price point, then buy when it is lower and sell when it is higher.
How much to buy and sell is a little more complicated, but imagine a reverse s-shaped curve, a sigmoid function, which had you 50% invested at your expected price point X. You might do most of your trading within a range of that point, being 75% invested at X minus delta and 25% invested at X plus delta. Outside of the range the curve would tail off and you would do less trading. Also because of high transaction costs you would not switch from buying to selling or vice versa until prices had moved a certain minimum amount.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2010.02.06 03:48:00 -
[915]
Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 06/02/2010 03:48:29
Originally by: Akita T So the only question is, how much need for capital do they have now as opposed to some hypothetical future, and how much are they willing to gamble on how long would it take CCP to intervene above a certain price point.
Other alliances would "intervene" way before CCP would.
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2010.02.06 03:49:00 -
[916]
Originally by: Akita T So the only question is, how much need for capital do they have now as opposed to some hypothetical future, and how much are they willing to gamble on how long would it take CCP to intervene above a certain price point. [/quote
I have heard rumors that the Northern Coaltion is being very careful with their capital fleets because they lack the isks to replace the losses as in pre-dominion days. My advice would be to watch for large battles, and to expect stockpile liquidations after the larger capital battles.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.06 18:32:00 -
[917]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev Other alliances would "intervene" way before CCP would.
That would only replace the near-monopoly owners, not remove the near-monopoly status of whoever owns it
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.02.06 19:10:00 -
[918]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev Other alliances would "intervene" way before CCP would.
That would only replace the near-monopoly owners, not remove the near-monopoly status of whoever owns it
Yeah, because it is so easy to get a dozen alliances spread over a half dozen regions + Pets to agree on anything. You think there is any power bloc in this game capable of covering the amount of space that the NC has? More likely we will see the north split amongst several blocs and thus several price point agendas.
As soon as one NC member gets attacked you will see them undercut the rest of the "cartel" to milk as much profit as they can before falling.
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.02.06 19:19:00 -
[919]
Originally by: Queen Athena Yeah, because it is so easy to get a dozen alliances spread over a half dozen regions + Pets to agree on anything. You think there is any power bloc in this game capable of covering the amount of space that the NC has? More likely we will see the north split amongst several blocs and thus several price point agendas.
As soon as one NC member gets attacked you will see them undercut the rest of the "cartel" to milk as much profit as they can before falling.
Agreed. The idea of the NC controlling the price through cartel is comical
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.06 19:27:00 -
[920]
Originally by: Queen Athena As soon as one NC member gets attacked you will see them undercut the rest of the "cartel" to milk as much profit as they can before falling.
Well then, somebody should attack them already. I hear the goons have no home right now
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2010.02.06 19:49:00 -
[921]
Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 06/02/2010 19:55:58
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev Other alliances would "intervene" way before CCP would.
That would only replace the near-monopoly owners, not remove the near-monopoly status of whoever owns it
That's assuming the NC would be completely/near completely pushed out. And even if this were to happen, I very highly doubt any (relatively) tightly knit group will ever again control as much of the tech as the NC does now.
Originally by: Queen Athena As soon as one NC member gets attacked you will see them undercut the rest of the "cartel" to milk as much profit as they can before falling.
Unless they're selling the tech to fund defense or evac, there is no reason to sell cheaply before "falling". It is not like the tech pile will disappear from their jita hanger when they lose the moons.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.02.06 20:00:00 -
[922]
Originally by: SetrakDark
Originally by: Queen Athena Yeah, because it is so easy to get a dozen alliances spread over a half dozen regions + Pets to agree on anything. You think there is any power bloc in this game capable of covering the amount of space that the NC has? More likely we will see the north split amongst several blocs and thus several price point agendas.
As soon as one NC member gets attacked you will see them undercut the rest of the "cartel" to milk as much profit as they can before falling.
Agreed. The idea of the NC controlling the price through cartel is comical
Oh yeah, absolutely comical.
Especially since there was a monopoly on dysprosium and promethium also for most of the time. And that stuff was found everywhere in 0.0 and low sec and not just in a very few selected regions which are under the control of one of the most powerful group of alliances in 0.0
And no, 'the' NC isn't controlling the tech. It is the core-NC with Morsus Mihi and Razor, maybe a little TCF also. But no one else.
Go figure. |
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.02.06 20:06:00 -
[923]
Originally by: Gnulpie Oh yeah, absolutely comical.
Especially since there was a monopoly on dysprosium and promethium also for most of the time. And that stuff was found everywhere in 0.0 and low sec and not just in a very few selected regions which are under the control of one of the most powerful group of alliances in 0.0
And no, 'the' NC isn't controlling the tech. It is the core-NC with Morsus Mihi and Razor, maybe a little TCF also. But no one else.
Go figure.
Non-responsive and bordering on nonsensical.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2010.02.07 14:13:00 -
[924]
Originally by: SetrakDark
Originally by: Gnulpie Oh yeah, absolutely comical.
Especially since there was a monopoly on dysprosium and promethium also for most of the time. And that stuff was found everywhere in 0.0 and low sec and not just in a very few selected regions which are under the control of one of the most powerful group of alliances in 0.0
And no, 'the' NC isn't controlling the tech. It is the core-NC with Morsus Mihi and Razor, maybe a little TCF also. But no one else.
Go figure.
Non-responsive and bordering on nonsensical.
The last couple of weeks you were just spewing one-line nonsense stuff (akita code, roffle roffle, no panic, time waster, pointless, comical, nonsensical) and weak attempts of market manipulations (sell sell!, this time for sure, look at me!, panic).
Not a single argument at all. Just huff and bluff mixed with a couple insults. Go and refute some of my arguments before you start talking big and insult me of being nonsensical. I wonder if you are again going to call me names or if you are comming forth with at least a few arguments to refute my following points?
When one looks at the promethium und dysprosium prices it is clear that there was some cartel to stabilize or even increase the prices beyond normal supply/demand mechanisms. That is clearly shown by the fact that the price dropped heavily with increased tradevolume after CCP announced that they want to change the moon-mineral demand and the heavy price crash after they released the actual numbers. Especially the increased tradevolume with dropping prices shows that there was quite some stockpile available and that not all moon material was put onto the market but held back to shorten the supply and to increase the price.
If such a cartel can happen with materials like dysprosium and promethium which are available everywhere in the universe then the same thing can for sure happen with a material which is mainly found in a few regions which additionally are all under the tight control of one of the most powerful entities in 0.0.
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.02.07 14:38:00 -
[925]
Originally by: Gnulpie When one looks at the promethium und dysprosium prices it is clear that there was some cartel to stabilize or even increase the prices beyond normal supply/demand mechanisms. That is clearly shown by the fact that the price dropped heavily with increased tradevolume after CCP announced that they want to change the moon-mineral demand and the heavy price crash after they released the actual numbers. Especially the increased tradevolume with dropping prices shows that there was quite some stockpile available and that not all moon material was put onto the market but held back to shorten the supply and to increase the price.
If such a cartel can happen with materials like dysprosium and promethium which are available everywhere in the universe then the same thing can for sure happen with a material which is mainly found in a few regions which additionally are all under the tight control of one of the most powerful entities in 0.0.
That, at least, is a sensical argument, though I disagree.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.07 19:05:00 -
[926]
Originally by: SetrakDark
Originally by: Gnulpie When one looks at the promethium und dysprosium prices it is clear that there was some cartel to stabilize or even increase the prices beyond normal supply/demand mechanisms. That is clearly shown by the fact that the price dropped heavily with increased tradevolume after CCP announced that they want to change the moon-mineral demand and the heavy price crash after they released the actual numbers. Especially the increased tradevolume with dropping prices shows that there was quite some stockpile available and that not all moon material was put onto the market but held back to shorten the supply and to increase the price.
If such a cartel can happen with materials like dysprosium and promethium which are available everywhere in the universe then the same thing can for sure happen with a material which is mainly found in a few regions which additionally are all under the tight control of one of the most powerful entities in 0.0.
That, at least, is a sensical argument, though I disagree.
That is exactly the same position he expressed a few posts earlier, thus:
Originally by: Gnulpie Oh yeah, absolutely comical.
Especially since there was a monopoly on dysprosium and promethium also for most of the time. And that stuff was found everywhere in 0.0 and low sec and not just in a very few selected regions which are under the control of one of the most powerful group of alliances in 0.0
And no, 'the' NC isn't controlling the tech. It is the core-NC with Morsus Mihi and Razor, maybe a little TCF also. But no one else.
Go figure.
That you said is:
Originally by: SetrakDark
Non-responsive and bordering on nonsensical.
And is also one of the key propositions of Akita position.
This is not COAD, if you don't stand up for your arguments you just look foolish.
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.02.07 20:09:00 -
[927]
Edited by: SetrakDark on 07/02/2010 20:09:32
Originally by: Wyke Mossari That is exactly the same position he expressed a few posts earlier
Perhaps his intent was the same, but the actual intelligible content was not.
I now consider the argument ridiculous, as opposed to unintelligible, based on this weak argument:
"When one looks at the promethium und dysprosium prices it is clear that there was some cartel to stabilize or even increase the prices beyond normal supply/demand mechanisms. That is clearly shown by the fact that the price dropped heavily with increased tradevolume after CCP announced that they want to change the moon-mineral demand and the heavy price crash after they released the actual numbers"
Do I need to explain why it's terrible?
The reason I didn't "elaborate" was to avoid the very situation your "call-out" response has now put me in: some long rambling internet battle with someone who has trouble forming both coherent and effective arguments, and who seems too mad to "agree to disagree".
This is about as much effort as I am willing to put into this, so if the responses are as angry, incoherent, and logically weak as I expect them to be, I likely will not respond. If this has some negative impact upon my MD forum warrior standing, I am prepared to weather that storm, despite the possibly physical toll such a blow to my e-honor will cause.
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Business Classy
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Posted - 2010.02.07 22:55:00 -
[928]
Ladies and gentlemen... have we forgotten what kind of market we are dealing with here?
'Actual' or 'real' (or whatever else you want to call it) supply and demand are almost meaningless... what matters is confidence!
Over the last few days Jita traders have seen Technetium jump 50%, with plat-tech following, while fullerides have been steadily rising for a long while.
Those who have stocks will want to hold off on selling for a higher price, those who want to buy will want to buy before it reaches a higher price. Who's up for encouraging a little more confidence in our dear little Technetium?
I for once believe it's on its way to regaining its former price of around 65k/unit within the next two weeks... after that who knows?
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.02.08 01:19:00 -
[929]
Originally by: Business Classy Ladies and gentlemen... have we forgotten what kind of market we are dealing with here?
'Actual' or 'real' (or whatever else you want to call it) supply and demand are almost meaningless... what matters is confidence!
Over the last few days Jita traders have seen Technetium jump 50%, with plat-tech following, while fullerides have been steadily rising for a long while.
Those who have stocks will want to hold off on selling for a higher price, those who want to buy will want to buy before it reaches a higher price. Who's up for encouraging a little more confidence in our dear little Technetium?
I for once believe it's on its way to regaining its former price of around 65k/unit within the next two weeks... after that who knows?
Not in game at this exact moment, but last time I looked I could see the buy orders being decimated just like they were before Technetium crashed down below 20k. Expect a week of price drop unless someone wants to come in and prop up the buy orders and actually keep them this time.
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UTRocketman11
Caldari
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Posted - 2010.02.08 07:07:00 -
[930]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Business Classy Ladies and gentlemen... have we forgotten what kind of market we are dealing with here?
'Actual' or 'real' (or whatever else you want to call it) supply and demand are almost meaningless... what matters is confidence!
Over the last few days Jita traders have seen Technetium jump 50%, with plat-tech following, while fullerides have been steadily rising for a long while.
Those who have stocks will want to hold off on selling for a higher price, those who want to buy will want to buy before it reaches a higher price. Who's up for encouraging a little more confidence in our dear little Technetium?
I for once believe it's on its way to regaining its former price of around 65k/unit within the next two weeks... after that who knows?
Not in game at this exact moment, but last time I looked I could see the buy orders being decimated just like they were before Technetium crashed down below 20k. Expect a week of price drop unless someone wants to come in and prop up the buy orders and actually keep them this time.
From the price history, it seems like most people bought from sell orders over the past 5 days.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2010.02.08 09:00:00 -
[931]
Originally by: UTRocketman11
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Business Classy Ladies and gentlemen... have we forgotten what kind of market we are dealing with here?
'Actual' or 'real' (or whatever else you want to call it) supply and demand are almost meaningless... what matters is confidence!
Over the last few days Jita traders have seen Technetium jump 50%, with plat-tech following, while fullerides have been steadily rising for a long while.
Those who have stocks will want to hold off on selling for a higher price, those who want to buy will want to buy before it reaches a higher price. Who's up for encouraging a little more confidence in our dear little Technetium?
I for once believe it's on its way to regaining its former price of around 65k/unit within the next two weeks... after that who knows?
Not in game at this exact moment, but last time I looked I could see the buy orders being decimated just like they were before Technetium crashed down below 20k. Expect a week of price drop unless someone wants to come in and prop up the buy orders and actually keep them this time.
From the price history, it seems like most people bought from sell orders over the past 5 days.
That is not what I am saying. Just now all the buy orders over 29k got nuked. Others have pointed this out before. There is a trend of people putting up buy orders to prop up the appearance of demand, then nuking them before actually purchasing. The last time large chunks of buy orders disappeared, and the time before that, and the time before that, Technetium makes a correction in price downwards. Just saying, the price this week should be headed back down.
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UTRocketman11
Caldari
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Posted - 2010.02.08 09:01:00 -
[932]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: UTRocketman11
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Business Classy Ladies and gentlemen... have we forgotten what kind of market we are dealing with here?
'Actual' or 'real' (or whatever else you want to call it) supply and demand are almost meaningless... what matters is confidence!
Over the last few days Jita traders have seen Technetium jump 50%, with plat-tech following, while fullerides have been steadily rising for a long while.
Those who have stocks will want to hold off on selling for a higher price, those who want to buy will want to buy before it reaches a higher price. Who's up for encouraging a little more confidence in our dear little Technetium?
I for once believe it's on its way to regaining its former price of around 65k/unit within the next two weeks... after that who knows?
Not in game at this exact moment, but last time I looked I could see the buy orders being decimated just like they were before Technetium crashed down below 20k. Expect a week of price drop unless someone wants to come in and prop up the buy orders and actually keep them this time.
From the price history, it seems like most people bought from sell orders over the past 5 days.
That is not what I am saying. Just now all the buy orders over 29k got nuked. Others have pointed this out before. There is a trend of people putting up buy orders to prop up the appearance of demand, then nuking them before actually purchasing. The last time large chunks of buy orders disappeared, and the time before that, and the time before that, Technetium makes a correction in price downwards. Just saying, the price this week should be headed back down.
Ah, gotcha, and you're very much correct.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.02.08 09:46:00 -
[933]
Originally by: Queen Athena
That is not what I am saying. Just now all the buy orders over 29k got nuked. Others have pointed this out before. There is a trend of people putting up buy orders to prop up the appearance of demand, then nuking them before actually purchasing. The last time large chunks of buy orders disappeared, and the time before that, and the time before that, Technetium makes a correction in price downwards. Just saying, the price this week should be headed back down.
I'm not sure this matters too much. Buy orders above 30k have been filling fairly easily all weekend while the 29k and lower ones have hardly attracted any attention (speaking from personal experience only - others might have had more luck). As to the orders being put up to prop up demand and then being nuked, I just haven't seen that happening to any significant extent this time.
What is more likely to push tech down, imo, is the recent dropping of a large stack onto the sell orders, putting pressure in the opposite direction. I'm not sure how this will play out though. The previous crash seems to have drained a lot of people with no confidence in tech from the market. My suspicion is that anyone who was willing to sell their tech for much under 30k has already done so. One of the notable features about the recent price rise was that we didn't see lots of people dropping big stacks onto the rising market in order to get rid of them. If we didn't see that on the way up, I'm doubtful that such behaviour will contribute to another major crash.
On the other hand, looking at the market right now there are less than 150k units of buy orders above 26k. But new orders are still creeping in above the 30k mark and the relatively thin set of current orders at this level might be due to the time of day as much as anything else.
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.02.08 11:10:00 -
[934]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: UTRocketman11
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Business Classy Ladies and gentlemen... have we forgotten what kind of market we are dealing with here?
'Actual' or 'real' (or whatever else you want to call it) supply and demand are almost meaningless... what matters is confidence!
Over the last few days Jita traders have seen Technetium jump 50%, with plat-tech following, while fullerides have been steadily rising for a long while.
Those who have stocks will want to hold off on selling for a higher price, those who want to buy will want to buy before it reaches a higher price. Who's up for encouraging a little more confidence in our dear little Technetium?
I for once believe it's on its way to regaining its former price of around 65k/unit within the next two weeks... after that who knows?
Not in game at this exact moment, but last time I looked I could see the buy orders being decimated just like they were before Technetium crashed down below 20k. Expect a week of price drop unless someone wants to come in and prop up the buy orders and actually keep them this time.
From the price history, it seems like most people bought from sell orders over the past 5 days.
That is not what I am saying. Just now all the buy orders over 29k got nuked. Others have pointed this out before. There is a trend of people putting up buy orders to prop up the appearance of demand, then nuking them before actually purchasing. The last time large chunks of buy orders disappeared, and the time before that, and the time before that, Technetium makes a correction in price downwards. Just saying, the price this week should be headed back down.
I don't think this is happening to any significant extent.
For example, a while back, when Tech was heading down. There was a 1 mil unit buy order at around 29k. Everyone accused the purchaser of removing the order when the price got close. But they didn't. I know because I filled it. (I'd bought in at around 25-26k and wanted to get out before it went down further. Turned out to be fairly pointless as when I bought back in, despite buying a load at 17k, the average price was slightly higher anyway)
The point is. Someone filling those buy orders looks almost identical to the buyer removing the buy order. It's almost impossible to say which is really happening. --------------------------------------
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.08 11:24:00 -
[935]
Originally by: SetrakDark
Perhaps his intent was the same, but the actual intelligible content was not.
I now consider the argument ridiculous, as opposed to unintelligible, based on this weak argument:
"When one looks at the promethium und dysprosium prices it is clear that there was some cartel to stabilize or even increase the prices beyond normal supply/demand mechanisms. That is clearly shown by the fact that the price dropped heavily with increased tradevolume after CCP announced that they want to change the moon-mineral demand and the heavy price crash after they released the actual numbers"
Do I need to explain why it's terrible?
The reason I didn't "elaborate" was to avoid the very situation your "call-out" response has now put me in: some long rambling internet battle with someone who has trouble forming both coherent and effective arguments, and who seems too mad to "agree to disagree".
This is about as much effort as I am willing to put into this, so if the responses are as angry, incoherent, and logically weak as I expect them to be, I likely will not respond. If this has some negative impact upon my MD forum warrior standing, I am prepared to weather that storm, despite the possibly physical toll such a blow to my e-honor will cause.
I found it understandable but not elegant. In football there is an expression play the ball not the man. I have no problem with contrary opinions or errors. I do have a problem with ad-hominem style arguments which is why I responded as I did. This post is more reasonable and for my part consider that matter closed.
Something more interesting. My contention is that a supply constrained Oligopoly was at work. However I have no opinion on if a collusive cartel was also at work. They are not mutually exclusive. The market consequences of either are the same which is why I choose not to dispute the finer detail. I would be genuinely interested to hear arguments/opinions as to why the consequences might be different.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.08 11:48:00 -
[936]
Originally by: Queen Athena
That is not what I am saying. Just now all the buy orders over 29k got nuked. Others have pointed this out before. There is a trend of people putting up buy orders to prop up the appearance of demand, then nuking them before actually purchasing. The last time large chunks of buy orders disappeared, and the time before that, and the time before that, Technetium makes a correction in price downwards. Just saying, the price this week should be headed back down.
To me that is the hallmark of somebody establishing a price floor. Interesting or coincidence? It is a ~3% margin on anybody wanting to compete against an NC price point of 30k.
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Tarne Monter
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Posted - 2010.02.09 13:23:00 -
[937]
I have no idea if the NC 30k price point is fact or fiction, but if it is true, I suspect the 30k price point is only temporary.
Stabilizing the price will give producers more confidence in the market and like spur more consumption, which is just a side benefit for them later down the road. Honestly, this particular price point is low enough to discourage massive invasions of the North while they try to consoldiate their holdings and possibly take back Geminate.
Most likely once they finish consolidating and/or recover Geminate is when we would see them flex their monopolistic muscles.
Of course this is all just speculation, I have no idea if it's actually the NC controlling the market or not.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.10 18:38:00 -
[938]
Originally by: Tarne Monter I have no idea if the NC 30k price point is fact or fiction, but if it is true, I suspect the 30k price point is only temporary.
Stabilizing the price will give producers more confidence in the market and like spur more consumption, which is just a side benefit for them later down the road. Honestly, this particular price point is low enough to discourage massive invasions of the North while they try to consoldiate their holdings and possibly take back Geminate.
Most likely once they finish consolidating and/or recover Geminate is when we would see them flex their monopolistic muscles.
Of course this is all just speculation, I have no idea if it's actually the NC controlling the market or not.
I agree it would always be a temporary price point, my latest information is that some movers and shakers in NC now want to push the price upto 50k because they've been so successful how easy 30k was. I think it was easy because that's about what the market wanted and expected. I'm riveted waiting to find out if that faction get their way, because I think that price point is still weeks aways. It will give us the chance to see how much economic muscle they can really exert. I'll still be watching that little red line like a hawk to exploit any volatility.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.02.10 18:43:00 -
[939]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
I agree it would always be a temporary price point, my latest information is that some movers and shakers in NC now want to push the price upto 50k because they've been so successful how easy 30k was.
So ... your sources claim the NC pushed the price up to 30k?
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Business Classy
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Posted - 2010.02.10 20:23:00 -
[940]
I would really like to know what the deal is with Fullerides.
Is it simply that people who were making fullerides switched to nanotransistors? That's the only thing that makes sense to me vOv
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Grozen
Caldari Centus Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.10 20:27:00 -
[941]
Nc ain't a small alliance I'm sure they have the juice to pump it to 50k, question is how long would it stay there knowledge is power |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.10 22:20:00 -
[942]
Originally by: Business Classy I would really like to know what the deal is with Fullerides. Is it simply that people who were making fullerides switched to nanotransistors? That's the only thing that makes sense to me vOv
Some of the people that were running fullerides retooled for nanotransistors. Very few people started new fullerides reaction chains. A lot of people started new nanotransistors reaction chains. T2 production recovered ever so slightly, eating up pre-existing advanced materials. Overall, fullerides became more scarce relatively to nanotransistors, so fulleride chain profit went up, nanotransistor chain profit went down. Simple
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Jadal McPieksu
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Posted - 2010.02.11 12:06:00 -
[943]
A lot of complex reaction supply comes from chains managed by large 0.0 alliances and those tend to shift around slowly and when they do, the product arrives in large batches - usually at least a full jump freighter load at once. Once this Technetium madness started, it took a while for 0.0 reactions producers to react to the Nanotransistor price spike but once they did, a large number of reaction towers suddenly switched to Nanotransistors (and Technetium found a new support level after a fairly nice crash as speculators liquidated their profits post-Dominion)
Now first product loads from newly reconfigured 0.0 chains are landing at Jita, over-saturating the market.
...the smart small-time producers that are more agile already switched the Nanotransistor production chains to something else a week ago when the Nanotransistor price trend became clear - you could hear the massive pile of Nanotransistors coming in from a mile away after the potential profits were touted around in relevant forums and Technetium price recovered, indicating that somewhere someone was reacting more Platinum Technite - with the obvious goal of using that to react Nanotransistors - because The Internet Said That Nanotransistors = Lots of ISK...
Next up, Fulleride crash in 1-2 weeks as the market blindly fumbles around trying to find the equilibrium... fun times. Depending on what those 0.0 towers were producing before they were switched to Nanotransistors, we could see both Fullerides and Nanotransistors overproduced and when that corrects itself, Technetium will take a beating (again).
Agile producers who can tweak their chains constantly can react to shifts and reap nice profits. Sunday producers may end up seeing profits dented considerably, depending on when they dump their loads to Jita.
Tech 2 ship/module producers can also benefit from this quite a bit by actually following how different complex reaction materials move around and filling their stockpiles when oversupply-induced price dips happen - violent up and down swings are virtually guaranteed until the market finds the correct production levels for all Tech 2 materials.
As for traders and speculators - perfect time to make large piles of ISK, should you have the capital and the balls.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.02.11 14:08:00 -
[944]
Originally by: Jadal McPieksu As for traders and speculators - perfect time to make large piles of ISK, should you have the capital and the balls.
Oh just shut up so I can stockpile some nano atm.
good read btw |
Jadal McPieksu
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Posted - 2010.02.11 14:24:00 -
[945]
Originally by: xylopia
Originally by: Jadal McPieksu As for traders and speculators - perfect time to make large piles of ISK, should you have the capital and the balls.
Oh just shut up so I can stockpile some nano atm.
good read btw
No worries. I'd say it takes 2-3 weeks for the reaction chains to shift again and I predict that Nanotransistors will go below breakeven point before the oversupply dies out - always have math-deficient producers who just want to dump the end product at whatever price so they can fund the next reaction cycles. In other words, I'm calling well under 2k per unit Nanotransistors before things get better for them - current price isn't creating losses for them yet, so there is room in the downside.
That is, unless Nanotransistor sellers stop dumping and start holding their stocks for a better price.
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Drexciyian
The Water Margin Tech
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Posted - 2010.02.11 14:52:00 -
[946]
Originally by: Jadal McPieksu
Originally by: xylopia
Originally by: Jadal McPieksu As for traders and speculators - perfect time to make large piles of ISK, should you have the capital and the balls.
Oh just shut up so I can stockpile some nano atm.
good read btw
No worries. I'd say it takes 2-3 weeks for the reaction chains to shift again and I predict that Nanotransistors will go below breakeven point before the oversupply dies out - always have math-deficient producers who just want to dump the end product at whatever price so they can fund the next reaction cycles. In other words, I'm calling well under 2k per unit Nanotransistors before things get better for them - current price isn't creating losses for them yet, so there is room in the downside.
That is, unless Nanotransistor sellers stop dumping and start holding their stocks for a better price.
Doubt it will take that long, its so easy to switch from nanos to fullerides at very low over heads as you're still using the platium tech
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.02.19 23:29:00 -
[947]
Sell Sell Sell --------------------------------------
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.02.19 23:40:00 -
[948]
Originally by: Ambo Sell Sell Sell
lmfao
You have to dress your manipulation attempt up at least a little
...Unless this is reverse psychology and you actually want everyone to buy...
Hmmmm...
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife Discord.
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Posted - 2010.02.20 02:32:00 -
[949]
Just panic sold at 29.6k to buy orders.
Lost as much as I made on the recent fullerides spike (bought in low 30's).
May or may not have been a good decision, but, I have a bad feeling about the effect of planet-mining on tech. |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.02.20 06:50:00 -
[950]
Edited by: xylopia on 20/02/2010 06:51:30 It's prolly my wishful thinking or worthless 0.02 iskies ever, but I think that the type of resources you can pull out of all those planets might be highly related to what is to be consumed in DUST51, WIS, or for something we're to see SoonTM.
Since CCP has not fully revealed what they are going to let us have, whatever I'm rabbling doesn't matter that much, but let's look at this way.
In terms of game content design, it would be highly illogical to destroy the value of previous content such as moon mining for the sake of planet mining. Moon mining and pos reactions are well established and perceived. It's now fully integrated into game world to a level that few tweaks here and there could quickly change big portion of economy and politics. People fight tooth and nail over valuable moons, generate drama, and spend a lot of time. Recent change in T2 manufacturing grieves a lot of ppl, makes a few happy, and literally becomes THE single focal point of MD for which ppl spent a lot of time to dig very deep.
Whether you call the recent T2 change a massive failure or not, T2 moon mining/T2 manufacturing itself is an essential and successful game content that keeps your core customer group tight to your biz model. Say you are the head of CCP such as Torfi himself. Would you put moon minerals into planet to water down the quality of such content?
I don't know about you, but I'd rather be called SOB and keep the moon number low for ppl to look at each other w/ shanks in their hands.
I think this expansion might be a preparation stage for DUST514 or WIS so that when new dusties come into New Eden, they might be able to see fully loaded market orders, beautiful ships hovering planet orbit, and massive industry/military stations up in the sky so that CCP's new game will have strong kick start rather than empty space like EVE was back in '03. This is all done by your time spent in EVE.
BTW, any1 wants to sell their tech cheap, shoot me an in-game mail. |
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Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2010.02.20 07:05:00 -
[951]
Originally by: xylopia It's prolly my wishful thinking or worthless 0.02 iskies ever, but I think that the type of resources you can pull out of all those planets might be highly related to what is to be consumed in DUST51, WIS, or for something we're to see SoonTM.
The industrialists collect resources from planets for several months before these resources gain any actual value?
The moment Dust or WiS hits, you have at least 4-6 months of stockpiles waiting to be sold?
does not make sense.
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Chaos Dreams
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Posted - 2010.02.20 09:03:00 -
[952]
They could make the planets produce the materials for a new class of t3 ship, like t3 frigs (I think they're next?) or maybe BS's or BC's. If they rolled out T3 BS's and they used the same components and methods that T3 cruiser production uses they'd probably cost as much as a super carrier. So, CCP might use a new industrial chain to produce them instead.
Or maybe T3 modules.
They had to tweak drop rates a couple times to get the prices of the strategic cruisers even close to where they wanted them. Adding new ships or modules to the existing mix would just make prices go haywire again.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.20 16:36:00 -
[953]
Edited by: Akita T on 20/02/2010 16:42:09
It's way too early to tell anything with absolute certainty. We have no idea what type of resources "planetary installations" will be gathering, be it regular minerals, moon minerals, or something else altogether that didn't exist before (with the latter being the most likely one). Regular minerals don't make much sense from the get-go, so let's discuss the possibility of them producing moon minerals.
If they introduce alternative ways to moon-mine via planets (doubtful, but possible), it would highly depend on what exactly does "administering the facilities" means - will it be actual work people have to do constantly to get the resource (effectively combining moon mining with regular mining rules-wise), or will it just be "come in every now and then to adjust some things so that output levels remain high"... and how much will it all cost. The actual effect it will all have will be HIGHLY dependent on the actual numbers (the cost in both ISK and man-hours, and amounts generated), and it could easily go both ways. Besides we know just how much CCP likes to pre-nerf things, ESPECIALLY since right at launch there will be absolutely no PvP-esque recourse to it all.
I mean, seriously, what sense would it make to have a bunch of heavily-PvP-oriented activities like moon mining directly compete in any way, shape or form with something that doesn't even have a PvP component at all at the start, and will only have an EXTERNAL PvP component later ? That's right, it would make next to no sense. And even if (<deity_name> forbid) that's actually what they're doing, and they would also not be pre-nerfing it into oblivion (a lot of unlikely ifs already), we still have 3-4 months before the expansion even hits at all, then another 2-3 months before everything would really start to go to hell in a handbasket for good.
Plenty of time to panic later But then again, those that panic now offer a nice new source of price fluctuation which the non-lazy traders can exploit for profit either way.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.02.20 16:51:00 -
[954]
There will be new materials that's for sure but since its expansion everyone should leave the panic for when it comes.No use to panic now things will remain stable.Until its actually tested nobody knows how much of what will come out from the planets. knowledge is power |
Tesal
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Posted - 2010.02.20 17:35:00 -
[955]
They are going to be the facilities used for Dust, so they will need to have some value. It sounds like some sort of Sim City or Starcraft like setup for production. We would basically be building battleground maps. I would bet that they do the same thing that POS do in general, with similar costs.
never stop posting...with alts. Please do not use inappropriate language in your sig. Zymurgist |
Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.02.20 17:50:00 -
[956]
If that's the case then ISK will be king and tech will be meh.I don't see them using the same pos structures we have now to mine the planets most likely they would implement more structures so that they can take even more isk out of the economy. knowledge is power |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.02.20 19:23:00 -
[957]
Originally by: Tesal They are going to be the facilities used for Dust, so they will need to have some value. It sounds like some sort of Sim City or Starcraft like setup for production. We would basically be building battleground maps. I would bet that they do the same thing that POS do in general, with similar costs.
Agreed just like t3 and t2 were introduced. A new technology tree from raw materials to finished goods, including weapons, sovereignty structures, resource collection, labs, factories geared towards that environment. Think populations need food, growth happyness needs consumer goods and luxuries, building supplies, small arms both high and low tech, a lot of this stuff exists already but I would expect it to be like T2/3 a combination of new and existing resources.
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.02.22 09:54:00 -
[958]
Well, must say I'm surprised tech is holding up this well.
It's certainly dropped a couple of thousand since the announcement of Tyrannis, which is annoying as it had been looking like it might start heading up faster after what had been a slow up-turn for a week or so.
That said, the few buy orders over about 28k keep being filled and there are a lot of competing sell orders atm, some of them with pretty large volumes so it safe to assume the price will be going down for a while.
The way I see it, planets are unlikely to provide moon goo. These are the options I can think of:
1) Regular minerals. Would at best be pointless and at worst a disaster. The mineral market is pretty well balanced (though it's supported by NPC insurance). I could say more but to cut a long story short, I think CCP would be mad to do this.
2) Moon goo. The moon mineral / T2 market is also mature and, on the whole, well balanced. Crucially, prices are NOT supported by NPC insurance. If CCP were to introduce significant new sources of moon goo then the price of T2 would crash drastically across the board, concievably. Moons also provide a significant driving force of 0.0 conflict, devaluing moons would take away one of the key drivers of the big wars.
3) T3 materials. I've seen this suggested but imo it just makes no sense. From an RP perspective, how do sleeper materials end up on planets in known space? From a gameplay perspective CCP did a lot of tweaking of sleeper drop rates to get them where they wanted. Why would they now mess with that balance?
4) Ice products. I don't know much about this area but from what I do know, it seems unlikely. Would damage the ice-mining profession for no real benefit. Dosn't make much sense from an RP point of view either.
5) NPC goods. Personally, I think this is the one to watch. Planets will produce and consume what are currently NPC goods. The market for these is currently static, boring, non-player driven content. This has historically meant that trading NPC goods is either easily exploitable or almost totally pointless.
6) Something new. Certainly possible, speculation on this from a market point of view is pointless atm though.
Even if planets do produce moon goo, we can pretty confidently say that there is currently more tech being consumed than produced. I believe it's only a matter of time until the price starts to go up and there's a long time to go before the expansion hits in the summer. Certainly if it continues going down, I'll be grabbing some more. :) --------------------------------------
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Aineko Macx
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Posted - 2010.02.22 12:41:00 -
[959]
Originally by: Ambo 5) NPC goods. Personally, I think this is the one to watch. Planets will produce and consume what are currently NPC goods. The market for these is currently static, boring, non-player driven content. This has historically meant that trading NPC goods is either easily exploitable or almost totally pointless.
6) Something new. Certainly possible, speculation on this from a market point of view is pointless atm though.
NPC goods sound interesting. I'm also sure each type of planet will produce a different type(s) of good(s).
And to those selling their Tech piles: Please keep up, we want to deplete those stocks faster, don't we? ;)
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Business Classy
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Posted - 2010.02.22 14:15:00 -
[960]
I'm really not sure what to think about the stability of tech price. I'd say it's because there's more demand than normal supply but the old speculator stocks are keeping it down as they are slowly released. Still it seems remarkable that there be so little movement for close to two weeks.
On the other hand, there's prom and dyspro which are also staying stubbornly high, what's causing that? They aren't under-supplied any more...
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John Blackthrone
Caldari Fnord Works
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Posted - 2010.02.23 11:37:00 -
[961]
I think planets will produce NPC goods or resources for some absolutley new production line. Its very likely because adding a nother source for existing production lines will turn over the whole market and ccp will not disturb the equilibrium of the market so fiercely.
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Business Classy
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Posted - 2010.02.24 01:16:00 -
[962]
Originally by: QEN
It is considered likely that the prices of moon materials which experienced this increased demand after Dominion, such as Technetium, Platinum and Neodymium, may start to fall in the coming months.
Way to forecast something that's already happened >.<
It's gonna be weird in a month or two defending the QEN when people say that 'prediction' was wrong as Tech rises. It's correct - it was just published two months after the events it predicted already occurred...
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Audelia Boozebandit
Gallente Toy Makers
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Posted - 2010.03.02 22:58:00 -
[963]
Hey Akita, you don't know me but I read this post the first hour or two it came out and went out on a huge limb and speculated for the first time. I bought in at: Platinum: 750isk p/u average- 400k units bought Technetium- 3200isk p/u average- 100k units platinum technite: 10k p/u average- 55k units nanotransistors: 800 isk p/u average- 1m units
and a bunch of other stuff like sylramic fibers, 3m units of fullerides, etc and i stayed out of neodymium and chromium thankfully.
I dont have all my initial numbers that I bought for written out but up top is roughly what i bought in at, pretty much whatever the going rate was at the time of this initial post is what I bought in at.
And now i would just like to say thanks dood, I been playing for 4 years and I have never had as much isk as I do now. Initial spending was about 3b and at the moment I have over 12b isk and still about 50k units of tech and 180k units of platinum. I really appreciate the fact you made this stuff public and I wanted to make it public that at least for some, you really helped.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.02 23:37:00 -
[964]
Hooray for satisfied "customers" There aren't that many expressing any gratitude at all, sadly, quite the contrary, a lot of people throwing accusations and whatnot, as you can see if you read the rest of the thread. So thanks for the kind words.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.03 11:49:00 -
[965]
Analysis The price of Technetium seems to be firming up a little now after being soft at it's new hight level for a few weeks some take profit. There is still a surplus of supply of fullerides (particularly) and nanotransitors (small). That tends to discount manufacturers as the main source of demand. Trade volume is up, so it appears the speculators are moving back into the market at the 28-29k level.
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.04 00:38:00 -
[966]
Originally by: Akita T Hooray for satisfied "customers" There aren't that many expressing any gratitude at all, sadly, quite the contrary, a lot of people throwing accusations and whatnot, as you can see if you read the rest of the thread. So thanks for the kind words.
I thought you're just after cold, hard cash rather than warm patting on shoulder
But, hey, I said pretty early on you did a terrific job on spotting the overlooked bottleneck. I was damn heavy on nano so didn't made much from tech. I just like to let you know not everyone is up against you. |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.04 21:13:00 -
[967]
Originally by: John Blackthrone I think planets will produce NPC goods or resources for some absolutley new production line. Its very likely because adding a nother source for existing production lines will turn over the whole market and ccp will not disturb the equilibrium of the market so fiercely.
Sort of already confirmed this is what will happen.
Quote: Q: There's been some talk on the forums about planetary interaction replacing NPC-seeded products on the market. The materials like skillbooks and so forth that players aren't producing, but that show up on the market anyway. Can you quash those rumors? A: No, I can't. Because that's what we really want to do. But we are probably not going to change all that overnight. One of our goals with planetary interaction is to phase out these NPC created commodities, because we want to put the power into the hands of the players and make EVE even more sandbox-y than it is. There are elements of EVE which we feel can use some iteration based on the experiences that we have learned, running EVE for seven years. The NPC market is definitely one of them. It's been with us for a long time. It hasn't changed much. We want to take these commodities and move them into the hands of the players. We are not giving out publicly yet which commodities these are. Even once we put it on the public test server, you will not be able to see what these final commodities are going to be.
Q: Will the planets have some manufacturing and research possibilities that are currently done on stations? A: They won't have the same, no. We are not going to be competing with the industry, research and manufacturing on the stations. And they're not going to be competing with mining. We are not replacing any of these game systems. They will be a separate ecosystem, so to speak.
Heh.
Let the technetium run back wild ! Fly, my pretties !
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2010.03.05 03:46:00 -
[968]
I'm sure those who are invested in Tc hope for rising prices, but T2 volume has been quite soft post Dominion patch for a variety of reasons. Until T2 demand fully recovers (which it may not due to essentially free battleships as well as T3 pressure) high end moon material prices will probably not rise dramatically.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.05 16:29:00 -
[969]
While that's true we have been seeing repeated bumps against the ~30K ceiling which IMO it only hasn't broken through because of speculators from the Big rise releasing stock piecemeal each time it reaches that point - being unwilling to sell lower. That can only keep prices down for so long.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.05 17:53:00 -
[970]
Originally by: Turiel Demon While that's true we have been seeing repeated bumps against the ~30K ceiling which IMO it only hasn't broken through because of speculators from the Big rise releasing stock piecemeal each time it reaches that point - being unwilling to sell lower. That can only keep prices down for so long.
It think it's more likely that the smart money speculators are waiting for the next bubble to develop. If you look at the volume, it rose a couple of weeks ago as some bought in at the floor. I think it is the NC pricing holding the the price down now.
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.03.05 17:58:00 -
[971]
This might be a dumb question and slightly off-topic, but are the NC the Saudi Arabia of New Eden?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.05 18:58:00 -
[972]
Originally by: Liberty Eternal are the NC the Saudi Arabia of New Eden?
Not YET
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.05 19:03:00 -
[973]
Originally by: Liberty Eternal This might be a dumb question and slightly off-topic, but are the NC the Saudi Arabia of New Eden?
When it comes to Technetium, yes.
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.03.10 10:51:00 -
[974]
Bumping this because there's bout 20b worth of tech in 1sell order atm and somehow i don't see this matched in the buy orders.Its going down from there very badly. knowledge is power |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.10 11:53:00 -
[975]
Originally by: Grozen Bumping this because there's bout 20b worth of tech in 1sell order atm and somehow i don't see this matched in the buy orders.Its going down from there very badly.
This has been happening every other week or so, there's a big sell-order just showed up (730K this time) and people see that it'll drop so they cash out on buy-orders, killing them down pretty effectively. Yesterday I sold off the 500k I still had on the 28k buy orders for instance, just like two weeks ago when I dumped 1m units. It recovers.
Most likely it'll drop down to maybe 22k/unit at the lowest point over the next 4 or 5 days; at that price you'll be lucky to see any movement before it starts rebounding back up fairly quickly. I'll try to re-buy at 23-26k/unit for a passable 15-20% profit over two weeks or so... as will many others I'm sure.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Chris Calamari
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Posted - 2010.03.10 20:05:00 -
[976]
awesome
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.03.11 00:07:00 -
[977]
I have some more question concerning NC and technetium
i) Are NC subsidising their own tec II manufacturers with reduced-price technetium?
ii) Do NC have any intention to unite the other technetium producers into a single cartel? Have negotiations been made along this line yet?
iii) How many technetium moons are there altogether outside the NC, where are they and how vulnerable are they to disruption?
I have a very limited understanding of technetium, but my line of thought is that this is the oil of New Eden. Is this roughly correct?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.11 01:59:00 -
[978]
All moon minerals are extracted at 100 units/hour/moon. So, for a round 30k per unit price, you get 30k ISK/unit * 100 unit/hour * 24 hour/day * 7 day/week = 504 mil ISK / week.
We do not know for sure how many moons there are with technetium, estimated numbers keep popping up in the thread and are disputed both ways 'til hell freezes over, numbers as low as 350 or as high as 800 have been spouted, the truth is most likely in-between (I'd say around 450 tops most likely). As for how many are "in the north", well, apparently, a vast majority (75%-90% of total technetium moons, depending on who you ask) are located in Guristas-"infested" systems, therefore most technetium moons would be under the control of whoever controls most of "the North".
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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SunGod RA
Endless Destruction
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Posted - 2010.03.11 04:47:00 -
[979]
Originally by: Akita T We do not know for sure how many moons there are with technetium
yes we do.
YES WE DO.
THERE ARE OVER 9000!!!
[obligatory] _
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.11 13:35:00 -
[980]
At times like this I always wonder if we may have been wrong about the relative scarcity of Neod - it surprises me it's been able to push through the oversupply created by the bunch of speculators who bought it before we settled on Tech.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
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Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2010.03.11 18:18:00 -
[981]
correct me if i'm wrong, but as neo is r64 and tec is r32, there are supposed to be less neo moons than tec moons, and as the fotm product nanotransistors takes both of them in the same quantities, neo demand should be close to tech demand. this of course is just wild speculation and based on absolutely nothing but the will to drive the price of neo up.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.11 18:45:00 -
[982]
plat-tech is also used in fullerides which make up something like a third of plat-tech demand, leading to something like 50% more demand for tech than for neod... though neod is also used for something else, I think one of the prom/dyspro products but I can't recall.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2010.03.11 19:17:00 -
[983]
i understand your point, but if my assumption is correct that there are half as many r64 moons as r32 ones, even if fullerides accounted for half of tech's demand, neo should be on the same price level.
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Stafen
Killer Koalas
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Posted - 2010.03.11 20:10:00 -
[984]
Originally by: Julian Koll i understand your point, but if my assumption is correct that there are half as many r64 moons as r32 ones, even if fullerides accounted for half of tech's demand, neo should be on the same price level.
And thus lies the problem. From the numbers on DotLan Moons there are 231 tech moons and 197 Neo moons. Very close in terms of numbers.
(but dotlan is probably wrong, so I guess we will have to wait and see if the tech bubble bursts to see how far wrong it is)
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.11 22:11:00 -
[985]
Originally by: Stafen
Originally by: Julian Koll i understand your point, but if my assumption is correct that there are half as many r64 moons as r32 ones, even if fullerides accounted for half of tech's demand, neo should be on the same price level.
And thus lies the problem. From the numbers on DotLan Moons there are 231 tech moons and 197 Neo moons. Very close in terms of numbers.
(but dotlan is probably wrong, so I guess we will have to wait and see if the tech bubble bursts to see how far wrong it is)
There's something like 50% more Tech moons than there are Neod moons. Neod being R64's were more accurately reported than the previously unimportant Tech moons which often got ignored... now not so much.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.12 00:01:00 -
[986]
Originally by: Turiel Demon plat-tech is also used in fullerides which make up something like a third of plat-tech demand, leading to something like 50% more demand for tech than for neod... though neod is also used for something else, I think one of the prom/dyspro products but I can't recall.
Neodymium : 1/30 unit in each nanotransistor, 1/4 unit in each fermionic condensate Technetium : 1/30 unit in each nanotransistor, 1/60 unit in each fulleride
The "needed ratio" for T2 production is somewhere between * 170 fullerides : 115 nanotransistors : 1 fermionic condensates at an average across all old pre-Dominion T2 production * 200 fullerides : 350 nanotransistors : 1 fermionic condensates for something like the Hulk now * 200 fullerides : 150 nanotransistors : 1 fermionic condensates for something like the Golem now
So, overall before Dom, you had 63% demand of tech over neo, Hulks are only 26% more tech than neo, golems are 58% more tech than neo, and so on and so forth. Bottom line, you need around 60% more technetium units than neodymium units overall (give or take 5%)... and there seemed to be only ever so slightly more tech than neo moons in the past.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.17 13:55:00 -
[987]
By the way, an unintended side-effect of the insurance thing on SiSi now (roughly a 1/3 drop in T1 ship insurance and roughly a doubling of T2 insurance) might drive T2 ship demand for PvP purposes slightly up, re-accelerating all of what we talked so far. I don't really mind that much about this specific part
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.17 14:07:00 -
[988]
Not related to the above but from watching the prices of all the tech-chain materials over the last month the margins between material cost and product price in each stage of production have been consistently shrinking.
This indicates that the 'reaction bottleneck' of there being insufficient towers working on making nanotrans and fullerides appears to have resolved itself somewhat, which is probably what's been causing Neod and Tech to bump up against - and now past - their 30k/12k ceilings these last few weeks.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Tagami Wasp
Caldari Sarz'na Khumatari Ushra'Khan
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Posted - 2010.03.18 00:52:00 -
[989]
Confirming reaction towers going up in numbers EVE-wide. ------------
+15% to railguns' dmg modifier -reduce Spike optimal bonus to 70% +10% to Caldari railboats PG |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.18 10:12:00 -
[990]
While tech dwindles at around 30k, Neod shows a bit of its muscle. I suspect it will rise quite a bit if Tech stays still. Good time to give some love to it. |
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.18 13:04:00 -
[991]
While there has been a bit of Neod manipulation influencing its rise, most of it seems natural, at least to me, especially as there is no cartel-like structure which controls the sources.
The reason for Neod rising like it has been I think is that it looks like there's a bit of under-supply of Neod which for up till now has been propped up by old stockpiles. Those stocks and the higher opinion of Tech have stopped all too much from happening to Neod so production didn't increase much while there has been some potential extra production available.
This was to be expected to a point, but now that I'm thinking about it it's quite possible that Neod will be a bottleneck material for a while (maybe a couple of months) while we chew through the large supplies of Tech that were available thanks to its previous overabundance.
I had actually first thought that there would be more excess Neod stockpiles than Tech, because there was a longer period of expectation that Neod would be the one to go up before Tech took over. This may not have been the case however, as (now that I've found the way to export market history for examination in Excel) it looks like there was actually quite a bit more Tech trading over the normal use in the november-domilaunch period than there was for Neo in the september-domilaunch period. Now that's just absolute trading amounts and doesn't necessarily say all too much because it includes all trading between speculators, of which there was a really high amount.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.18 13:44:00 -
[992]
Also, tech was noticeably more valuable for a couple of years in the past compared to neod (5k-7k tech vs 2k neod before alchemy picked up significantly crashing tech to 3k or so, give or take a few hundreds), so more likely to get mined and then stockpiled instead of simply ignored, so Neodymium stocks are likely to be (much) smaller than Technetium stocks.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2010.03.18 14:13:00 -
[993]
another thought i just had: lets look at neo trade volume in jita, its more or less 0.5m a day, with a few spikes. Thats about 15m a month. Now we look at the neo moons, as said earlier, there are about 200 of them, each producing 72k units a month, a total of 14,4m units. These numbers are ofc not reflecting buy/sell transactions, speculation but also neo that never sees the market and is used for reactions by its producer (or privately traded).
One of you wiseguys feel like having a more sophisticated look at this? |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.19 00:57:00 -
[994]
If Neod becomes a strong bottleneck and stays at high enough, there comes mighty Plat alchemy, which is buffed to yield x4 more times in Dominion. That would eventually leads to price increase of Sylramic Fibers, Fullerides, and, Tungsten Carbides. Oh not to mention a bit on Ferrogel too. But I don't think that we'll see that conversion very soon. I can safely say no chance at least this time.
Platinum price is around 3k, Dysprosium is @ 25k, and Promethium @ 20k. Tech is still around 30k. I believe these price tags indicate we are still moving from pre-dominion to dominion. So, I think Neod price will reach roughly around mid 20k (slightly higher than 5 times of Plat), and stays there till next turn comes around. |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.19 01:34:00 -
[995]
Originally by: xylopia ...
Platinum price is around 3k, Dysprosium is @ 25k, and Promethium @ 20k. Tech is still around 30k. I believe these price tags indicate we are still moving from pre-dominion to dominion. So, I think Neod price will reach roughly around mid 20k (slightly higher than 5 times of Plat), and stays there till next turn comes around.
That's probably as good an estimate as any from the basic numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Neod overshoot that price quite easily, seeing the love of speculation and quantity of ISK that people seem to be willing to throw at materials in possitions like Neod is in right now. How long a rise and eventuall plateau would be maintained is a bit of a difficult question though... |
Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.03.19 01:46:00 -
[996]
If the introduction of Planetary infrastructure creates a mechanism capable of absorbing large amounts of capital then the speculative money is going to drain out of all of these moon mineral markets and leave them in a state of shock. |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.19 03:07:00 -
[997]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: xylopia blah...
That's probably as good an estimate as any from the basic numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Neod overshoot that price quite easily, seeing the love of speculation and quantity of ISK that people seem to be willing to throw at materials in possitions like Neod is in right now. How long a rise and eventuall plateau would be maintained is a bit of a difficult question though...
Not that I'm unaware of mighty hands of ppl w/ s***load of iskies. Especially at this time when too many ppl w/ load of isk from tech manipulation and reaction towers sprung up all over EVE, it might be a low-hanging fruit within your arm's reach. I'm just trying to sound reasonable so what I'm rambling about isn't far-fetched after all. Bottom line is, we are seeing a wave coming fast at us. So, git yer surfboard waxed and ready.
Originally by: Liberty Eternal If the introduction of Planetary infrastructure creates a mechanism capable of absorbing large amounts of capital then the speculative money is going to drain out of all of these moon mineral markets and leave them in a state of shock.
You don't seem to have very good idea of what you are stating sir. Would you mind me to personally serve you a bottle of Quafe for rebooting those implants in your skull? |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.19 13:54:00 -
[998]
While some of my long term capital is still in Technetium products for the long market, I've already started moving the bulk to the next big thing and detecting the unmistakable foot prints of some big money while I'm at it.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.19 15:14:00 -
[999]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
While some of my long term capital is still in Technetium products for the long market, I've already started moving the bulk to the next big thing and detecting the unmistakable foot prints of some big money while I'm at it.
Well, how positivley vague of you.
Oh, and reply nr 999!
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.19 15:14:00 -
[1000]
Originally by: Liberty Eternal If the introduction of Planetary infrastructure creates a mechanism capable of absorbing large amounts of capital
Considering they stated that they wanted PI to be a thing a newbie can get soon into, I highly doubt it.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.19 20:18:00 -
[1001]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Liberty Eternal If the introduction of Planetary infrastructure creates a mechanism capable of absorbing large amounts of capital
Considering they stated that they wanted PI to be a thing a newbie can get soon into, I highly doubt it.
Easy to get into, but how much trit do you think will be needed to build a space elevator?
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.19 20:30:00 -
[1002]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Liberty Eternal If the introduction of Planetary infrastructure creates a mechanism capable of absorbing large amounts of capital
Considering they stated that they wanted PI to be a thing a newbie can get soon into, I highly doubt it.
Easy to get into, but how much trit do you think will be needed to build a space elevator?
Well the problem there is that in relative terms we don't really need extra trit sinks so very much. If a spece elevator costs staggering amounts of highends then you're on to something
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Di Mulle
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Posted - 2010.03.19 23:23:00 -
[1003]
Edited by: Di Mulle on 19/03/2010 23:23:16
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Liberty Eternal If the introduction of Planetary infrastructure creates a mechanism capable of absorbing large amounts of capital
Considering they stated that they wanted PI to be a thing a newbie can get soon into, I highly doubt it.
Easy to get into, but how much trit do you think will be needed to build a space elevator?
Not so much, I think.
Nobody will build a 10 bil worth elevator, if it will raise 1 mil from the ground. Nor anyone will do that for the sake of having space elevator itself.
The question is WHAT PI WILL PRODUCE and how many. Not how. My guess is PI will not produce anything comparable to current mineral market amount. Otherwise CCP need to: - either to put some established industry (like T2 or ice) in turmoil, near to destroying it in it's current form; - either introduce completely new kind of industry with amounts similar to T1 or T2. I simply can't see what that could be. Nanite paste, commodities used as POS fuel etc. - everything is nice and sound plausible. But amounts are way smaller.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.20 01:28:00 -
[1004]
So, I've been watching and working Neod the last two weeks. I'm pretty sure now that it's underproducing, quite heavily. There are still stocks out there right now of course, but it might be as little as ten million units right now.
The thing is, Tech has higher stockpiles, still multiple tens of millions of units. It is going to be rising over the coming weeks, but quite slowly.
The point being: from the looks of things Neodymium is going to be our T2 bottleneck for a little while.
Production is not at full capacity, it never needed to be pre-dominion. To maintain the same level of production we had pre-dominion needs about 2x as much neod as it did before, just like Technetium, however tech quite simply has more stockpiles to coast on and likely is closer to full-scale production due to its greater popularity. As you all may know there was a long period of time where Tech was worth somewhat more than Neod... and of course with the Dominion run-up this was amplified to an even greater degree.
The stockpiles of both of these materials have allowed production to trail usage by greater or lesser degrees, but as tech has been higher people have taken up production there with a vengeance, while Neod has trailed behind as the 'secondary' moongoo.
This situation could have been predicted, I'm sorry to say I didn't see it untill I finally 'got' the pattern ten days ago... but it was almost inevitable once the reactor bottleneck resolved itself. If anyone sees a chance to make some ISK off of it, best of luck to you. I doubt anyone will be able to tell with any degree of certainty what kind of price will or even can stick, but right now it looks like a fairly easy 20k+/unit for the next few weeks.
Once Neod production comes on line in earnest (which it will) over the coming month(s) we'll see Tech take over, but it could really take quite a while. Even though the disparity between tech and neod is greater than prom and dyspro it looks increasingly like we could be seeing a two-material bottleneck like before.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.20 01:46:00 -
[1005]
Edited by: xylopia on 20/03/2010 02:12:05
Originally by: Di Mulle deleted due to space limit.
Considering what and how planetary interaction content could intertwine with current EVE, I can say PI isn't for good-ol eve players, but it is for alliance and Dusties (Therefore PI is more close to COAD stuff. Don't get me wrong. I agree you can make iskies from PI stuff.)
Currently CCP is trying to expand their business. DUST 514, World of Darkness, and WIS. (Ok, WIS isnÆt new product but more of expansion. Nevertheless, CCP's currently hiring quite a few peeps for WIS.) In order to successfully launch those products, and quickly have them settle in the corner of MMO market, the most logical choice would branch off from their existing, strong asset. And that is? ofc, EVE. Further, it is easy to sell your new product to your established customer base: a very well known business exercise. (Apple does it. Google does it. Blizzard does it. Even Red Hot Chili Peppers does it. It's CCP's turn.)
However, that does not necessarily mean you can break all your eggs. You can't change everything and anything in EVE just because you will bring WIS or DUST into EVE. That would not only enrage more than the total number of CCP's current subscription, but also alert potential customers. Simply put, CCP cannot alter T1 BS BPO to require something from Planet. No chance. Nada.
As many point out above, therefore, CCP is trying to slide Tyrannis into EVE as best safely and smoothly as it is possible, and PI introduce NPC goods such as nanite compound, pos fuel, and whatnot. It will generate some iskies for the folks sinking their feet into mud, but it ain't gonna be huge deal at least initially. (So there is no way huge amount of iskies drained into those fancy balls up in the black sky when Tyrannis hits) What PI is at the first stage (the time frame before DUST coming along ) is a candy jar with few sweeties to which we can put our hands in, and ofc CCP is watching all that behind the scene. Unless measurable amount of good from PI being consumed daily basis, however, that "few sweeties" situation would not change that much.
Let's recap. You cannot transform the current EVE being PI oriented, but you need to smoothly integrate DUST/WIS into EVE. (Market activity is really a part of them but essential anyway.) Then where would you have ppl to burn their goods from PI if you can't let ppl burn enough PI goods in EVE? It is only in DUST/WIS. No other place. Then when is time for you to see real isk from PI? I suspect there is going to be a few, huge threads with full of angry ppl saying Tyrannis is an absolute failure. That might be the queue sign to step in. Then when does PI thing get big enough to be called an industry? It is when DUST and 0.0 sec alliances closely work together, consume considerable amount of resources daily basis, and generate drama every once in a while.
So yes. Tyrannis, or PI is a testing bed at its best.
Originally by: Turiel Demon àI wouldn't be surprised to see Neod overshoot that price quite easily,à
Guess what, youÆre right and IÆm wrong. My bad.
BTW, I've been such a sorry ass with 2m Neod in my hanger. Everytime ppl beat their chest with iskies from tech, I swallowed salty tears deep down in my throat. All those months I was holding myself from banging my head to the thickest part of wall for not buying up Tech; those days are going fast. ItÆs finally the time to shine some light on æem. Now that IÆm not that shabby after all.
Thanks for pointing out. |
Whopewpews
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Posted - 2010.03.20 02:23:00 -
[1006]
Originally by: xylopia
BTW, I've been such a sorry ass with 2m Neod in my hanger. Everytime ppl beat their chest with iskies from tech, I swallowed salty tears deep down in my throat. All those months I was holding myself from banging my head to the thickest part of wall for not buying up Tech; those days are going fast. ItÆs finally the time to shine some light on æem. Now that IÆm not that shabby after all.
Thanks for pointing out.
2,000,000 x 20,000 = You never had anything to cry about :p
Speaking of which there is less than 10B on the Neo plateau @ 25k. After that there is only orders at 50k. o.0
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Di Mulle
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Posted - 2010.03.20 03:00:00 -
[1007]
Edited by: Di Mulle on 20/03/2010 03:00:28
Originally by: xylopia Edited by: xylopia on 20/03/2010 02:12:05 stuff
I pretty much agree with you that PI in Tyrannis will be a rather small addendum for economy. Thus it annoys me a bit when people left and right start to refer to PI as savior for any major problem. Like as solution for possible mining catastrophe... PI can't positively influence any sort of these problems without bringing in new problems and/or changes of a similar scale.
However, I would doubt its' big impact when Dusties come, for the same logic. What for alliances would spend "big resources" for Dusties through PI ? For the planets themselves ? Makes no sense if planets are not so important economically. Then, as it was said, Dusties can affect sov... but this is really huge can of worms.
Also, I was kind of derailing the thread here, for what I am sorry.
As excuse, I have this thought here. With PI implemented, CCP may have a ready system to put in changes to control goo bottlenecks.
Imagine some kind of "planetary alchemy". Let's assume, CCP decides technetium price over 100k is bad, for example. So they can put some reaction scheme on a planet, which starts to be profitable at that price level. Some kind of safety valve. Of course, forecasting that profitability will not be an easy task and system may go out of hand after some time...
The key thing there would be not using existing moon materials for alchemy. Though all this would not look good for me....
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.20 03:26:00 -
[1008]
Originally by: Whopewpews You never had anything to cry about :p
Where'd you pick that line from? My ego is smaller than my wallet. That does not mean ma belly is small too. I want as much of isk as universe can spare for me, and 40B is just a scrap! dang! want my wallet digit count to be at least 12! Go Neo! Go!
Originally by: Whopewpews Speaking of which there is less than 10B on the Neo plateau @ 25k. After that there is only orders at 50k. o.0
Tell you what...actually, right now, I'm making a slanted, deep hole in my neo stock and then...hoo...ha...
Originally by: Di Mulle I pretty much agree with you that PI in Tyrannis will be a rather small addendum for economy. Thus it annoys me a bit when people left and right start to refer to PI as savior for any major problem. Like as solution for possible mining catastrophe... PI can't positively influence any sort of these problems without bringing in new problems and/or changes of a similar scale.
However, I would doubt its' big impact when Dusties come, for the same logic. What for alliances would spend "big resources" for Dusties through PI ? For the planets themselves ? Makes no sense if planets are not so important economically. Then, as it was said, Dusties can affect sov... but this is really huge can of worms.
It's not me who wishes alliance and dusties tangle with each other. It's CCP's daydream and I have as much influence as you'd have. So, we'll see what happens but I think CCP might have studied PlanetSide.
Originally by: Di Mulle As excuse, I have this thought here. With PI implemented, CCP may have a ready system to put in changes to control goo bottlenecks.
Imagine some kind of "planetary alchemy". Let's assume, CCP decides technetium price over 100k is bad, for example. So they can put some reaction scheme on a planet, which starts to be profitable at that price level. Some kind of safety valve. Of course, forecasting that profitability will not be an easy task and system may go out of hand after some time...
I don't know what CCP's hiding behind their back. I can only throw some guess here and there, and, very fortunately most of time, it ends up worthless .02 isk ever. so...(shrug) |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.03.20 13:05:00 -
[1009]
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 20/03/2010 13:14:27
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Liberty Eternal If the introduction of Planetary infrastructure creates a mechanism capable of absorbing large amounts of capital
Considering they stated that they wanted PI to be a thing a newbie can get soon into, I highly doubt it.
Easy to get into, but how much trit do you think will be needed to build a space elevator?
Well the problem there is that in relative terms we don't really need extra trit sinks so very much. If a spece elevator costs staggering amounts of highends then you're on to something
Trit was just an example mineral, it's much snappier than mineral basket and should have conveyed the idea. As was space elevator as a pretty extreme example mentioned in the text. I have no doubt that Tyrannis will introduce new sinks for all mineral. There have been plenty of hints of that in various dev blogs including the most recent. Infrastructure, Factories, defence.
Quote: For a long time we have had people asking us for more options to build up their own infrastructure. Itæs something that comes up frequently at Fanfest, in past CSMs and during casual conversations with players. There seems to be some deep Freudian desire to erect something monumental. To make stuff. To create something new. At last Fanfest we announced our plans to allow you, the pod-pilots of New Eden, to shift your foci away from the heavens for a moment, onto the planets.
http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=733
As a side issue, I used to have a profitable side line in filling the needs of mission runners for marines, tourist, homeless, refugees etc. It was a small but profitable segment, that was suddenly bought out a while back. Thought it odd at the time, but never added 2+2. With hind sight, perhaps the reason was that some of these will become necessary colonists on our new dirt side holdings and CCP cleaned out the market (or somebody was speculating that would be the case). Did anybody else notice anything similar?
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.20 13:09:00 -
[1010]
Originally by: xylopia
Originally by: Turiel Demon àI wouldn't be surprised to see Neod overshoot that price quite easily,à
Guess what, youÆre right and IÆm wrong. My bad.
BTW, I've been such a sorry ass with 2m Neod in my hanger. Everytime ppl beat their chest with iskies from tech, I swallowed salty tears deep down in my throat. All those months I was holding myself from banging my head to the thickest part of wall for not buying up Tech; those days are going fast. ItÆs finally the time to shine some light on æem. Now that IÆm not that shabby after all.
Thanks for pointing out.
Well, I guess that's probably one of the times you'd been most happy to be wrong in recent history?
Seriously, congrats on still having some Neod, I managed to pick up a little over the last couple of weeks but nowhere near 2m
I hadn't expected it to suddenly jump to 50k, a price which is almost certainly unsustainable, but I expect that those small orders racing eachother down that just hit 30k are going to find themselves bought up and relisted pretty soon if they go much further...
Prices may settle anywhere between 25k and 45k and still get blowled right over in the coming week... producers are still going to want to buy 600k+/day, and unlike the Big Tech Spike, where prices were rising with trading over 4x actual daily usage, here we have trading that is only slightlly (20%?) over actual daily use. This whole spike has taken place during 14 days that are actually slightlyl below average. All this just to say that I very much doubt we'll see a reactionary crash like we did with Tech... there simply aren't large enough (active) stocks out there for it IMO.
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.20 15:39:00 -
[1011]
Look who's talking. A guy with a couple million tech in his pocket patting my shoulder... Hmmm...
Originally by: Turiel Demon Prices may settle anywhere between 25k and 45k and still get blowled right over in the coming week.
I can't argue with that. Look how quickly it settles down, but I'm sure it will rise back again. |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.20 15:51:00 -
[1012]
Originally by: xylopia Look who's talking. A guy with a couple million tech in his pocket patting my shoulder... Hmmm...
Originally by: Turiel Demon Prices may settle anywhere between 25k and 45k and still get blowled right over in the coming week.
I can't argue with that. Look how quickly it settles down, but I'm sure it will rise back again.
Rumours of my Tech stocks are greatly exagerated... that's Akita with the 7m units.
Seriously, with 2m units of neod if it sells over 30k/unit you're a good bit richer than me
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Martosh Toma
Gallente Fraction Investment
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Posted - 2010.03.20 15:55:00 -
[1013]
Edited by: Martosh Toma on 20/03/2010 15:56:10 what if pi required drone minerals? and perhaps allowed (inneficcient) production of them
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.03.20 18:01:00 -
[1014]
Originally by: Turiel Demon Rumours of my Tech stocks are greatly exagerated... that's Akita with the 7m units.
Peak tech stock was a bit over 6.2 mil units (average purchase price 11.2k), have around 5.5 mil left (yikes). Neo, that I bought only around 350k units at 3k per unit and sold at 13.4k per unit just before the patch hit.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Celtic industries F A I L
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Posted - 2010.03.22 00:25:00 -
[1015]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Turiel Demon Rumours of my Tech stocks are greatly exagerated... that's Akita with the 7m units.
Peak tech stock was a bit over 6.2 mil units (average purchase price 11.2k), have around 5.5 mil left (yikes). Neo, that I bought only around 350k units at 3k per unit and sold at 13.4k per unit just before the patch hit.
Well then as an impartial observer on Neod what're your thoughts?
So far noone seems to be coming out to agree or disagree with what I've been thinking
If you can't beat Eris, join her, hmmm that sounded so much better in my head - Cortes Don't be greedy :P -Cap |
Treji
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Posted - 2010.03.22 21:13:00 -
[1016]
Noe not being manipulated...my a**e it's not. There are 3 recognised manipulators involved, and the price has gone suddenly from 12k a unit to 24k. Classic dropping of market to 10200 or so to buy up stock, then a market buyout. It could be maintained at this price range whilst wars distract haulers from Neo moon alliances...but its bound to drop quickly when this stock hits markets again.
Has this thread just turned into a speculators posting thread, each trying to outdo others by making spurious announcements to move markets upwards in some sort of ****ing competition?
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Holdings
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Posted - 2010.03.22 21:27:00 -
[1017]
Originally by: Treji Has this thread just turned into a speculators posting thread, each trying to outdo others by making spurious announcements to move markets upwards in some sort of ****ing competition?
rofl
like 15-20 pages ago
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Nestor Ne'Arthe
Amarr RennTech BricK sQuAD.
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Posted - 2010.03.23 20:21:00 -
[1018]
I see that the neodymium market has crashed a bit.
Yesterday sell orders were hovering around 24k, buy around 22k. Today we have Sell orders 21k, buy orders going quickly down from 19k to 13k.
Not many buy orders around as well. I guess someone dumped a large quantity on the market?
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.03.24 00:39:00 -
[1019]
When Neod hit 50k, I shook my head in realizing manipulation attempt. And as its price slowly but surely settles down right this moment, the pain of seeing my wealth greatly diminishes minute by minute just murders me.
Whoever tries next time, try harder and make me rich please. |
Nestor Ne'Arthe
Amarr RennTech BricK sQuAD.
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Posted - 2010.03.24 09:18:00 -
[1020]
Neo Sell orders just went down from 19k to 17k. Market is crumbling down like old buildings :P
Lost some 50 mil on that so far ;/
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2010.03.31 00:59:00 -
[1021]
Dysprosium is selling @ 53k in Jita, but the other high ends haven't moved much. WTF?
In other news, we could use a table of insurance returns currently implemented on Sisi. Something like:
Tier 1 BS: 50% return for plat. Tier 2 BS: 45% return for plat. Marauder: 30% return for plat. Covert Ops: 60% return for plat. ...
With the above info. there is plenty of room for informed speculation as to what the hot new PvP ships will be cost vrs. utility wise. It may also shed some light on how badly the mineral basket will crash post patch.
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Aineko Macx
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Posted - 2010.03.31 12:29:00 -
[1022]
Originally by: Terrible Karma Tier 1 BS: 50% return for plat. Tier 2 BS: 45% return for plat.
According to the blog T1 will keep 100% return:
Quote: We have our own ideas for how much of the full insurance value we want to payout for each ship class which generally is 100% for Tech 1 ship groups, 20-60% for Tech 2 and 100% for Tech 3 ships (those this is only a portion of the value of the entire ship since subsystems are not included currently).
So the mineral basket crash post patch will be around 30% with the first insurance adjustment cycle, but since the mineral supply will be nerfed, basket price should stabilize above fraud profitability on the long run (supposing the nerf goes far enough). But that is OT ;)
With the inclusion of T2 in the insurance scheme, we'll have increased demand. Glad I held onto my pile of Tech
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2010.03.31 22:14:00 -
[1023]
So far -No flood of dyspro coming to the rescue. Low volume in the move from 29k -55k it is suggests that dysprosium was thin rather than a manipulation. Although if a group owns enough dyspro moons they could manipulate by withholding.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2010.03.31 23:49:00 -
[1024]
Originally by: Aineko Macx So the mineral basket crash post patch will be around 30% with the first insurance adjustment cycle, but since the mineral supply will be nerfed, basket price should stabilize above fraud profitability on the long run (supposing the nerf goes far enough). But that is OT ;)
There will be no more fraud profitability and therefore no fraud profitability level. Reread the dev blog. Insurance "contracts" will no longer be contracts but estimates of future payouts that will change with mineral prices. The most you will ever rceive is 100% of the current material cost for your hull. Given the 30% you have paid out in insurance premiums you will never get close to fraud profitability. And since this is a moving target that will always recede as prices fall, the fraud profitability level will be nothing more than a figment of your imagination.
Prices will stabilize at some point or other, and they will be above some hypothetical fraud profitability level, but that would be about as meaningful as saying that there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow since the rainbow only appears to have an end.
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2010.03.31 23:56:00 -
[1025]
Cashing in on insurance fraud under the new system will actually just be a medthod of realising trade profits on mineral purchases.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife Discord.
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Posted - 2010.04.01 00:52:00 -
[1026]
Originally by: Professor Leech Cashing in on insurance fraud under the new system will actually just be a medthod of realising trade profits on mineral purchases.
100% coverage according to the blog means insurance payout = 100% ----> insurance payout - cost = 70%.
Fraud will be a thing of the past (unless the basket slumps by over 30% between rebalance periods).
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2010.04.01 01:13:00 -
[1027]
Edited by: Kanatta Jing on 01/04/2010 01:13:54 If someone sells ships at more then 30% less then cost, then suicide is still an option.
So... Time to put out the 1 isk Trit buy orders?
Planned crash followed by an expected recovery...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.04.01 06:04:00 -
[1028]
The good news is that for pretty much every last T2 ship, insurances will go up (just a bit for some, a lot for others), while insurance for T1 ships will go down hard. So, it looks like soon, T2 will become a lot more attractive compared to what it used to be when looking at the T1:T2 usage ratios in PvP, which can only mean demand for T2 will go up (since T2 losses would get cheaper while T1 losses will get more expensive), alongside T2 prices going up as a consequence, which will drag T2 components up and so on and so forth down to moon minerals which would have no place to go but up too. Which is, at least for moonmin holders (of just about any moon-min, but in particular the "big four" of the moment), a pretty good thing. That is, unless CCP has some more surprises (related to T2 manufacture) in their sleeves.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Aineko Macx
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Posted - 2010.04.01 13:35:00 -
[1029]
Edited by: Aineko Macx on 01/04/2010 13:45:12
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Aineko Macx So the mineral basket crash post patch will be around 30% with the first insurance adjustment cycle, but since the mineral supply will be nerfed, basket price should stabilize above fraud profitability on the long run (supposing the nerf goes far enough). But that is OT ;)
There will be no more fraud profitability and therefore no fraud profitability level. Reread the dev blog. Insurance "contracts" will no longer be contracts but estimates of future payouts that will change with mineral prices. The most you will ever rceive is 100% of the current material cost for your hull. Given the 30% you have paid out in insurance premiums you will never get close to fraud profitability. And since this is a moving target that will always recede as prices fall, the fraud profitability level will be nothing more than a figment of your imagination.
My comment on the fraud profitability is based on the fact that insurance payout is not updated in realtime, but in as of yet unknown intervals. Given enough downwards pressure on the minerals, they can hit the insurance floor before the insurance is updated with new values.
Originally by: Kanatta Jing Planned crash followed by an expected recovery...
Yup, if the nerf to mineral supply goes far enough.
Originally by: Akita T T2 will become a lot more attractive compared to what it used to be when looking at the T1:T2 usage ratios in PvP, which can only mean demand for T2 will go up (since T2 losses would get cheaper while T1 losses will get more expensive), alongside T2 prices going up as a consequence, which will drag T2 components up and so on and so forth down to moon minerals which would have no place to go but up too.
When the change hits, T2 volumes will go up but then fall back to current levels, with prices stabilizing at a higher level. Supply is limited and for the demand side what counts is the effective cost of replacement...
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Letrange
Minmatar Chaosstorm Corporation Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2010.04.01 15:45:00 -
[1030]
Originally by: Akita T The good news is that for pretty much every last T2 ship, insurances will go up (just a bit for some, a lot for others), while insurance for T1 ships will go down hard. So, it looks like soon, T2 will become a lot more attractive compared to what it used to be when looking at the T1:T2 usage ratios in PvP, which can only mean demand for T2 will go up (since T2 losses would get cheaper while T1 losses will get more expensive), alongside T2 prices going up as a consequence, which will drag T2 components up and so on and so forth down to moon minerals which would have no place to go but up too. Which is, at least for moonmin holders (of just about any moon-min, but in particular the "big four" of the moment), a pretty good thing. That is, unless CCP has some more surprises (related to T2 manufacture) in their sleeves.
Well from fanfest we know what they have in mind for future sources of T2 moon goo. They have mentioned something about cometary mining (sounds "fun" doesn't it?). I suspect we won't see too many changes on the supply side of things until we see rumblings of "comets" coming out of the devs. From Torfi's part of the presentation it looks like it will be seriously down the road (possibly post Incarna). I am beginning to suspect that we won't see any T3 changes in this expansion as well. Time will tell.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.04.01 18:21:00 -
[1031]
Originally by: Aineko Macx
Originally by: Akita T T2 will become a lot more attractive compared to what it used to be when looking at the T1:T2 usage ratios in PvP, which can only mean demand for T2 will go up (since T2 losses would get cheaper while T1 losses will get more expensive), alongside T2 prices going up as a consequence, which will drag T2 components up and so on and so forth down to moon minerals which would have no place to go but up too.
When the change hits, T2 volumes will go up but then fall back to current levels, with prices stabilizing at a higher level. Supply is limited and for the demand side what counts is the effective cost of replacement...
The time until that happens is uncertain... it depends on how often the insurance prices are recalculated, because they specifically mentioned it will be a periodic deal. It might as well be that it could take the better part of a year for prices to really settle down.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.04.02 00:30:00 -
[1032]
Neodymium 50k. Whatcha waiting for? Let's go!
I even have a theme song! |
Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2010.04.02 03:44:00 -
[1033]
Originally by: Aineko Macx
Originally by: Kanatta Jing Planned crash followed by an expected recovery...
If the nerf to mineral supply goes far enough.
The real nerf to mineral supply is the crash.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.05.04 11:20:00 -
[1034]
Observations on Technetium
Most of the technetium in regional hubs has been bought out/consumed even with a 20% premium over the Jita price and the little that remains is priced approaching 40k with some as high as 60k in some regions. It looks to me like somebody was doing quite nicely out of inter-regional arbitrage but has recently discontinued for some reason.
The size of the stock blobs on the eve metrics punch card graph are much small and we have seen a steady price rise since mid April from 27-28k to the current 31-32k. There was volume spike during the early part of that rise but the volume has recently flattened, perhaps due to the ending of that inter-regional arbitrage. Despite this decline in volume the Jita price has still risen steadily over the last month.
The outstanding question in my mind is how much of that decrease in volume is sell orders expiring and how much is due to the consumption of surplus stock.
My agenda, you ask? OK, I'll be up front, it doesn't harm my position. It's to see how much stock reappears by putting a spot light back on technetium.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.04 11:25:00 -
[1035]
Well, it's certainly taking a whole lot longer than I anticipated
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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McCRAZY
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Posted - 2010.05.04 11:46:00 -
[1036]
I heard IT alliance plans to crash tech once they hold enough moons to manipulate the market, with the intention to cripple northern coalitions cash flow.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.05.04 12:12:00 -
[1037]
Originally by: McCRAZY I heard IT alliance plans to crash tech once they hold enough moons to manipulate the market, with the intention to cripple northern coalitions cash flow.
If that's their plan, they need an market/economic consultant to tell them why it is deeply flawed. I will provide that service for a negotiable retainer.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.04 12:20:00 -
[1038]
Originally by: McCRAZY I heard IT alliance plans to crash tech once they hold enough moons to manipulate the market, with the intention to cripple northern coalitions cash flow.
Yeah, well, that's been one of the things "one hears" since January or so, so I wouldn't exactly put any stock in it anymore. Besides, it makes very little sense to even try to do that, unless you don't care much about your own ISK income... you end up sacrificing more ISK than the opposition. You might as well keep randomly reinforcing towers that produce technetium instead (they can't keep defending all of them all the time), it would be cheaper and more effective in the long run.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Galactic Exploration and Missions
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Posted - 2010.05.04 23:05:00 -
[1039]
NC have lost many of the high end moons to the Reds, and IT. I doubt it makes sense for the big allaince to crash the price.
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Fearr Dorchaa
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Posted - 2010.05.05 10:15:00 -
[1040]
So getting back on topic, lets just deal with the real big question, when I can hope to dump the millions of units of Tech I bought at 60k right before the market tanked?
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Melleia
Vulcan Innovations New Eden Research
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Posted - 2010.05.05 11:17:00 -
[1041]
Originally by: Fearr Dorchaa So getting back on topic, lets just deal with the real big question, when I can hope to dump the millions of units of Tech I bought at 60k right before the market tanked?
You poor bastard.
I bought @ 2.5k so I'm not too worried :)
I KNEW I shoulda unloaded when it hit 70k...
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2010.05.05 15:21:00 -
[1042]
Is there still any reason to believe that there is a true Technetium bottleneck? It is clear that enough of the supply belongs to those who would collude on the pricing to stabilize it at 30K, but if this were truly a scarce resource wouldn't we be seeing shortages or rising prices in spite of their agreement to fix prices?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.05 15:36:00 -
[1043]
Originally by: Tiberizzle Is there still any reason to believe that there is a true Technetium bottleneck?
Considering there are enough people with pretty heavy stockpiles that are left since before Dominion, we can't really know for sure just how much of a bottleneck Technetium really is right now.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Tiberizzle
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Posted - 2010.05.05 16:03:00 -
[1044]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Tiberizzle Is there still any reason to believe that there is a true Technetium bottleneck?
Considering there are enough people with pretty heavy stockpiles that are left since before Dominion, we can't really know for sure just how much of a bottleneck Technetium really is right now.
Either they are willing to sell at 30K p/u and are out of the market, or they are unwilling to sell at 30K p/u and we should see price pressure from a bottleneck. Stock that is not on the market does not exert price pressure. We have certainly been stable at 30K p/u long enough for T2 demand to pick up, and stockpiles that can be liquidated at or below 30K to at least diminish. At the very least, as stockpiles which can be priced at 30K diminish, we should see increasing Technetium price volatility as the rate this inventory is liquidated tapers off, and bottleneck cartel supply is unable to meet the demand, no?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.05 22:49:00 -
[1045]
Edited by: Akita T on 05/05/2010 22:50:39
It hasn't been exactly stable at 30k. It has moved from around 31k to roughly 27k in a week, then from 27k to 32k in the following week, which is a significant variation during a single month, which can't be explained just by natural fluctuations. People that purchased stockpiles for trading purposes don't act the same way a producer would act, and also different from how somebody trying to set up a monopoly would. I have myself unloaded a small part of my stockpile every now and then, but never all of it, not at these prices, not even if I purchased them at under a third of it. I'm in no hurry to get rid of it and turn it into liquid ISK in full just yet.
The reaction market is also far from saturated, the T2 ship volumes traded are slightly lower than last year around this time, the stockpiles were far higher than initial estimates... all of the above exert cummulative influences on the price (rather said, on demand), keeping it where it is, regardless of where actual scarcity lies. It's certainly one of the scarcest, but just how scarce, we'll have to wait for the stockpiles to go away to know for sure, and that's not going to happen too soon.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.05.11 07:11:00 -
[1046]
It's my secondary interest to pay close attention on tech since its stable price is very much necessary premise for Neod to rise instead.
Given that, I've noticed that tech is approaching 40k, and that doesn't look very good to me. Does anyone else note the same?
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AvatarADV
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Posted - 2010.05.11 07:44:00 -
[1047]
Well, we can certainly expect an interesting bunch of consequences for Tyrannis...
-The insurance shift from fixed values to market price will be interesting, but slow. Most T1 ships are running around their insurance payout value as it is, so we shouldn't expect insurance to jump much right off the bat. (Though CCP has also been talking about variable payback percentages based upon ship role, with the obvious implication that the big boys will be getting the nerf bat...)
-Removing T1 meta 0 loot from missions/rats? That's going to have just a little effect on the mineral market. Granted, not all reprocessed modules represent mission loot to start with (modules built for mineral compression show up in that total too, but they're not "new" minerals entering the market). On the other hand, we're still talking about a huge shift in the supply of minerals. Combine this with the changes to drone loot, and I expect mining is going to get a shot in the arm. On top of this, a lot of markets that were supplied entirely from mission loot are now going to rely on manufacturing, so there's going to be some potential there (and room in the market for relative newcomers, who might actually be able to make, gasp!, a margin in the T1 market!)
-Planetary stuff. Yeah yeah starbase structures, fuel, nanite paste. But T2 components? Seriously, depending on which items can be constructed, we might be talking a serious shock to the T2 market. Even a modest shift in availability of certain components could have drastic consequences on the value of certain moon minerals. (Put more bluntly, would CCP bother putting this in if the only effect would be to build things otherwise made with moon minerals that are worth so little that it's not worth fueling a tower to mine them? Probably not, huh?) Expect a tremendous landslide in the high-end moon mineral market. That's not even counting the relative attention drain that planetary stuff will have on industrialists...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.11 07:46:00 -
[1048]
Prices are on a slight upwards trend (and have been for a while, with some oscillations), while volumes are on a slight downwards trend (noticeable enough even with the naked eye on the graphs)... I'd have to say, we just MIGHT be approaching a small price breakpoint caused by the supply side, as old stockpile owners are no longer willing to sell at the current prices and only freshly mined materials will circulate... possibly leading to a sudden jump up in price. When, how high and how long, that's another story. Also, neodymium can't really go up in price too much alone, or else neodymium-replacement platinum alchemy becomes useful, so it has to be accompanied by a platinum price hike, and there are several unused platinum moons to pick up the slack. Technetium, on the other hand, has no alchemy "pressure release" valve (not yet anyway), so its only keep-it-low-in-price mechanism (for now) is old stockpiles.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.05.11 09:53:00 -
[1049]
Originally by: Akita T Also, neodymium can't really go up in price too much alone, or else neodymium-replacement platinum alchemy becomes useful, so it has to be accompanied by a platinum price hike, and there are several unused platinum moons to pick up the slack. Technetium, on the other hand, has no alchemy "pressure release" valve (not yet anyway), so its only keep-it-low-in-price mechanism (for now) is old stockpiles.
I've given up on Neod being pre-dominion Dysprom long ago. I'm not even looking forward Neod jumping on 100k/u either. I just humbly hope Neod being traded roughly around 40k, which, at least in my point of view, isn't much of insane price.
I've collected most of my stock around 6k, but I don't think that it's shameful to expect five-fold profit after all those "hard-work" and "waiting".
No? |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.11 10:05:00 -
[1050]
By the time neodymium reaches close to 40k, technetium should be well above 100k and steadily increasing, and I suppose it'll still be a good while until then, by the looks of it. But stranger things have happened :shrug:
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Xylopia
Gallente Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2010.05.11 11:28:00 -
[1051]
Edited by: Xylopia on 11/05/2010 11:28:36 let's see what I should do w/ my yellow goo. 1. I hold on my stock till it reaches 40k and Tech to 100k. 6k Neod -> 40k : ~660% profit
2. I dump my stock @ current price (18k) and buy tech. Then wait till Tech hits 100k. 6k Neod -> 18k : ~300% profit 32k Tech -> 100k : ~300% profit The total comes to 900% profit!?! after all these days???
As a matter of fact, I started unloading my stock little by little from a while ago. So, let see if it's time to jump on the train with big, yellow T written on it, finally.
*CCP is perfectly capable to tweak PI to produce t2 components, but I think it won't happen anytime in foreseeable future. "Why?" is entirely different story to even talk about. |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.05.11 12:09:00 -
[1052]
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. Wouldn't it be hilarious if by the winter expansion (or maybe next summer), CCP decides to implement ways to also manufacture T2 components without any moon mineral inputs via PI ?
I think it more likely that CCP would release pressure on T2 bottle necks by making T3 more available/viable/competitive and therefore any new PI production would be geared towards T3.
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.05.12 07:07:00 -
[1053]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Originally by: Akita T
P.S. Wouldn't it be hilarious if by the winter expansion (or maybe next summer), CCP decides to implement ways to also manufacture T2 components without any moon mineral inputs via PI ?
I think it more likely that CCP would release pressure on T2 bottle necks by making T3 more available/viable/competitive and therefore any new PI production would be geared towards T3.
ding ding ding
CCP thinks point source=bad evilness, mmk.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.12 07:25:00 -
[1054]
Originally by: Alice Celadon CCP thinks point source=bad evilness, mmk.
And they sort of have a point there, at least for insanely high income level point sources... they are too easy to control by a big power bloc, for leverage purposes, given the current gameplay mechanics. But there are certain good things to be said for moderate income level point sources, they do provide incentives for territorial warfare. Too much of it is bad, but too little of it is also bad. They have to somehow find an acceptable point in-between those extremes, and the current situation (although most likely fleeting absent any later changes) is much closer to that sweet-spot than anything we had in the past.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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J'J'J'Jita
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Posted - 2010.05.12 16:52:00 -
[1055]
Tech up to 40k/u ... speculation, interruption of NC deliveries due to fight in H-W, or sustainable demand?
Waiting for Akita to unload...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.12 17:22:00 -
[1056]
Originally by: J'J'J'Jita Tech up to 40k/u Waiting for Akita to unload...
At 40k ? Pwah ! That's peanuts. It was higher than that for a decent timespan right after the patch, if I would have settled for that I would have at least sold some back then. There will probably be a partial unload at around 75k, maybe another small one at around 100k, most of the rest only at around 150k, the very least, and in small doses... always in small doses. I'm patient
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal OWN Alliance
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Posted - 2010.05.12 17:30:00 -
[1057]
Originally by: J'J'J'Jita Tech up to 40k/u ... speculation, interruption of NC deliveries due to fight in H-W, or sustainable demand?
Waiting for Akita to unload...
If you're holding a small amount short term, i'd unload wherever it slows, probably 50kish. There has definitely been some serious supply destruction causing a genuine price increase, but expect a lot more on sell orders over the next few days as the HW "crisis" turned turkeyshoot slows down and logistics resume. If youre holding a ton long term, keep holding.
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J'J'J'Jita
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Posted - 2010.05.12 20:17:00 -
[1058]
Looks like the sell-off has begun at 44k/u, lots of people trying to take profits now. Amusing how Platinum Technite has remained nearly untouched by speculators.
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal OWN Alliance
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Posted - 2010.05.12 20:37:00 -
[1059]
Originally by: J'J'J'Jita Looks like the sell-off has begun at 44k/u, lots of people trying to take profits now. Amusing how Platinum Technite has remained nearly untouched by speculators.
Look at the volume though, it's a bunch of piddly sells. Unless a big speculator unloads (no way to predict) or NC logistics get up and running today/tomorrow (unlikely), we'll see 50k+. My guess is spike to 55k, post-spike slump to 45k over the week, then new short term price of 45k-50k. Long term I'm betting on continued supply destruction and stockpile depletion for an absurd long term price.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.05.12 20:37:00 -
[1060]
Originally by: J'J'J'Jita Looks like the sell-off has begun at 44k/u, lots of people trying to take profits now. Amusing how Platinum Technite has remained nearly untouched by speculators.
Although volumes on the market at that level are not huge and could easily be eaten through by the regular purchases at the moment. Waiting for someone to drop a wrecking stack though.
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J'J'J'Jita
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Posted - 2010.05.12 20:47:00 -
[1061]
Is a wrecking stack of 225k units enough to stop your rise?
If this was more than baseless speculation Plat Tech would have risen noticeably as well; it did not. So either there's a great opportunity there or Tech is done for the day and probably the week.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.05.12 20:54:00 -
[1062]
Originally by: J'J'J'Jita Is a wrecking stack of 225k units enough to stop your rise?
I would expect so.
"My" rise?
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Melleia
Vulcan Innovations New Eden Research
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Posted - 2010.05.14 10:55:00 -
[1063]
Freaking EveHQ got me all excited. Said Tech had hit 46k sell <_<
Then I remembered it was set for median sell price when importing market data.
FUUUUUU
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.06.17 09:29:00 -
[1064]
Edited by: RAW23 on 17/06/2010 09:32:52 Edited by: RAW23 on 17/06/2010 09:31:14 I haven't seen any discussion of this recently so I thought I would ask.
What is going on with technetium at the moment? Backstory for those who have not been following tech prices: throughout May tech showed a steady rise from around 30k pu to 40k pu, with a couple of small dips after topping out before a return to a steady higher price. One of the interesing features of this rise was the fact that it did not appear to rely heavily on speculation, unlike some of the tech spikes we have seen in the past. Volumes were up a very small amount for this period but it seems clear that the rise wasn't driven primarily by speculative purchasers (although, see below).
The situation now: ok, this is where it gets interesting. After stabilising at a sell price around 40-41k two weeks ago, sales volumes have been down hard. Whilst average daily volumes were previously pretty consistently in the 1.1mil or more area, the last 7 days the average has been around 700k units, with the previous 7 days also down at around the 1mil mark.
So, what's going on? My assumption is that producers are laying off for a while, in the hope that the price will fall back down to a lower level or that T2 finished product prices will rise to a level that will sustain the new tech price. This may have happened even earlier but it could have been masked by speculative buying in the rising phase keeping the daily volumes up to their previous averages. Interestingly, the new higher price seems pretty durable; despite the large fall in volume over the last two weeks the price hasn't really fallen at all, apart from a couple of very brief down ticks.
Opinions, then, please. If this is a waiting game, who will cave first? Tech buyers returning to purchasing full volumes at the new price or sellers recovering volume by lowering their prices? Or have I missed something else that could have caused this (Tyrannis tech nerf of some description, for example)?
Edit - Another question - if sales volumes had remained at their normal level, would tech have shot through the roof over the last two weeks?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.17 10:33:00 -
[1065]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/06/2010 10:33:37 Honestly not quite sure. Only wild mass guesses down below here. Maybe just some of the reaction guys having a heroic BSOD at the dip in reaction profitability due to oversupply of advanced material combined with the increasing price trend of raw material, needing some period of price stability for both sides to regain confidence and restart the chains... that is, unless fuel costs don't start going crazily out of control thanks to PI adjustments and with some of the people running reactions not having prepared for it. Meanwhile, some tech stockpile holders might have been leaking some on the market corresponding to various personal needs as prices kept going up, while as soon as prices stopped going up, started waiting it out at 0.01 ISK "friendly undercutting" instead of going on a lemming-fall-off-cliff-undercutterry-spree.
Edit : as to your last question... yeah, most likely. Maybe not quite through the roof, but noticeably higher for sure.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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The Breadmaster
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Posted - 2010.06.17 10:48:00 -
[1066]
Technetium has too many hands on it to be predictable.
The sales volume doesnt say much, it's possible that a few individuals or even a single person own the majority of the market orders you see there. An order modification wouldn't show volume traded.
Also plat tech is obviously being speculated against, the price change lags by maybe a day... the highs and lows almost match exactly to the swings in price of technetium.
Oddly enough, the products downstream from plat tech (fullerides and nanotransistors) are experiencing a small slump in price.
Adjusted for tower fuel costs- the absolute isk per hour you generate off of reaction products purchased at jita sell prices per complex reactor are all very close (around 500k), but the profit margins are HUGELY different. You would have to be a damn fool to purchase technetium off the market to do a 20% margin reaction where you earn the same off of any other reaction chain but have a return of 100-500%.
Anyone doing reactions should stay away from technetium like the plague, unless it comes in moon form.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.18 09:17:00 -
[1067]
Just though I'd share a few random thoughts to get other views.
Technetium has been stable now for two months with buy and sell orders straddling the 40k mark. The volume is down and spread has been increasing suggesting less competition. I've been trading a little on the spread and it certainly seems to have gotten a lot easier recently. 40k is rumoured to be the price set by the NC cartel but oddly they don't seem to be exploiting their monopoly to drive up prices.
This seems to support my previous supposition that they may prefer a stable market for their customers/consumers to grow consumption. However given the wide spread peace at the moment, demand is going to be reduced, putting downward pressure consumption and the price.
I then got to wondering if this stability might a result of them taking their eye of this ball because of PI, rather like MD and S&I. If they are focusing on securing POS supplies being foremost in their minds. That made me wonder. If there is crunch on PI supplies caused by boredom, technetium moons are likely to be one of the last to be neglected, but any increase in costs should cause an increase in moon goo supplies prices as supplies are constrained, prioritise and even increase prices generally.
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Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.18 09:30:00 -
[1068]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
40k is rumoured to be the price set by the NC cartel but oddly they don't seem to be exploiting their monopoly to drive up prices.
This seems to support my previous supposition that they may prefer a stable market for their customers/consumers to grow consumption. However given the wide spread peace at the moment, demand is going to be reduced, putting downward pressure consumption and the price.
If the supposed cartel is working and they easily could x1.5 or x2 the price, they could have another reason for keeping prices stable and relatively low: Tech moons would be an attractive target at a certain price point, and with regards to defense/ stable harvesting/ freeing up military capabilities for other stuff, it could be their overall strategy to keep tech moons under the radar.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.18 10:02:00 -
[1069]
Edited by: RAW23 on 18/07/2010 10:03:23 I'm not sure whether there is any evidence for the current stability having anything to do with attempted monopolisation. Prices rose from c. 30k to c. 40k. Prices then remained stable at this level because demand dropped by c.30%. Had demand remained at its previous levels it seems pretty clear that tech would have risen considerably higher. Unless "the cartel" is controlling demand as well as supply this stability seems to have little to do with them. This is not to say that there is no effort at price control going on though. There have been significant efforts to cap the sell price, most recently with a bunch of large sell orders at the 40k level (in any case, it looks like this rather than just stock dumping due to multiple orders at the same level). But it looks like these have not been terribly effective as they have been eaten through even with the reduced demand.
The question for me is, why has demand dropped by so much and for so long (also, what are the knock on effects down the production chain, if any)? And, will demand recover? It seems extremely likely that if demand returns to its previous levels tech will start shooting back up again. Indeed, it is edging back up, despite blocking orders, with just a small rise in volume. The fact that prices didn't plummet when the market lost 30% of its sales seems like a clear indicator of where prices are going to go eventually.
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.07.18 14:57:00 -
[1070]
Originally by: RAW23 Edited by: RAW23 on 18/07/2010 10:03:23 There have been significant efforts to cap the sell price, most recently with a bunch of large sell orders at the 40k level (in any case, it looks like this rather than just stock dumping due to multiple orders at the same level).
BMBE had a 50B ISK loan secured by technetium. Loan defaulted. Stock has been sold of (not by me) over a time frame (and with a tidy profit for BMBE as well).
That might have been what you have been seeing
Ie. no cap'ing attempt or anything.
BIG Lottery |
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.18 15:07:00 -
[1071]
So, basically, it *was* stock dumping, just a slow stock dumping In retrospect, 40k is not bad at all for 7 months down the road, considering the revised stockpile estimates and the "unexplained" drop in traded volume.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.19 09:59:00 -
[1072]
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: RAW23 Edited by: RAW23 on 18/07/2010 10:03:23 There have been significant efforts to cap the sell price, most recently with a bunch of large sell orders at the 40k level (in any case, it looks like this rather than just stock dumping due to multiple orders at the same level).
BMBE had a 50B ISK loan secured by technetium. Loan defaulted. Stock has been sold of (not by me) over a time frame (and with a tidy profit for BMBE as well).
That might have been what you have been seeing
Ie. no cap'ing attempt or anything.
Thanks for the info! So the price has held up despite the loss of volume and a significant stockpile being liquidated.
Now if I could just understand what's not getting built anymore ...
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Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.19 10:14:00 -
[1073]
Well, since Nanotransistors and Fullerides volume has been stable for half a year now, and Tech as well as Plat. Tech volume has been decreasing, I'd say that Tech gets reacted up to the adv. material directly after mining. This is related to the change, that running a reaction now adds more value to a mineral than in Dyspro times. I'll try to get some numbers on this, but I'm pretty sure that alliances are now running more reaction chains than when they could just sell the raw mineral for enormous profits.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.19 14:59:00 -
[1074]
Originally by: Zenon Mu Well, since Nanotransistors and Fullerides volume has been stable for half a year now, and Tech as well as Plat. Tech volume has been decreasing, I'd say that Tech gets reacted up to the adv. material directly after mining. This is related to the change, that running a reaction now adds more value to a mineral than in Dyspro times. I'll try to get some numbers on this, but I'm pretty sure that alliances are now running more reaction chains than when they could just sell the raw mineral for enormous profits.
Is the suggestion, then, that tech volumes are down because tech moon owners are doing the reactions themselves rather than bringing their raw material to market? If so, why would this cause the people who were previously buying tech for reactions to stop buying? Don't we still need an explanation for the fall-off in purchasers?
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.19 15:05:00 -
[1075]
Originally by: RAW23 If so, why would this cause the people who were previously buying tech for reactions to stop buying?
Let's put it this way : at the height of the changeover craze, you could make almost 10 bil ISK/month per full nanotransistors chain. Now, it's not even 1 bil ISK/month... actually, barely some over half a bil per month at times per full chain (3 and a half large tower equivalents)... so it would be no wonder if some of the people might have stopped reacting.
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Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.19 15:40:00 -
[1076]
The history graphs for Plat. Tech / Fullerides / Nanotransistors blueprints seem to support this, as all of the three 20d avg. are below NPC price, except for the end of february. Which suggests that after the initial spike people are constantly leaving the reaction business (risk/reward of a pure reaction business, where you source raw materials on market).
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Kesper North
Caldari Reliables Inc Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.07.20 00:39:00 -
[1077]
Originally by: RAW23
Is the suggestion, then, that tech volumes are down because tech moon owners are doing the reactions themselves rather than bringing their raw material to market? If so, why would this cause the people who were previously buying tech for reactions to stop buying? Don't we still need an explanation for the fall-off in purchasers?
Speaking from personal experience - this. -- Killed me? Read about it in my blog! Northern Lights: Solo PVP in EVE Online
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Raaki
The Arrow Project Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2010.07.20 10:16:00 -
[1078]
Originally by: Kesper North
Originally by: RAW23
Is the suggestion, then, that tech volumes are down because tech moon owners are doing the reactions themselves rather than bringing their raw material to market? If so, why would this cause the people who were previously buying tech for reactions to stop buying? Don't we still need an explanation for the fall-off in purchasers?
Speaking from personal experience - this.
Same
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Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.20 13:07:00 -
[1079]
Originally by: Raaki
Originally by: Kesper North
Originally by: RAW23
Is the suggestion, then, that tech volumes are down because tech moon owners are doing the reactions themselves rather than bringing their raw material to market? If so, why would this cause the people who were previously buying tech for reactions to stop buying? Don't we still need an explanation for the fall-off in purchasers?
Speaking from personal experience - this.
Same
So, care to elaborate what are you doing with Technetium, you cartellizing oligomonopolygamists?!
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.26 08:57:00 -
[1080]
Hmmm ... unless TS is still dumping tech from that defaulted loan there does still seem to be a pretty definite attempt at capping the price here. Yesterday, 3 sell orders each of 100k units and all at exactly the same price sat as a blocking order on the market. Most of that seemed to get eaten through but this morning (or last night) another 2 x 100k order have been dropped in at exactly the same price point (40793.94). I'm not sure these will last for long though. Apart from repeated reinforcing of this blocking order there doesn't seem to be too much in the way of sell orders holding the price under 50k. It'll be interesting to see how this goes as the blocking orders currently seem to be fighting a losing battle (cue massive sell order to push the price back down!).
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.07.26 09:19:00 -
[1081]
I don't know why - But for some reason people seem to vastly (and I stress *vastly*) underestimate the stockpiles in existence.
3*100K + 2*100K in sell orders is but a drop.
I don't want to be more concrete than that - Just know that the stockpiles are vastly larger than what you currently see on sale.
And that's only those piles *I* know about...
----
My bet is that those people are now (finally?) starting to cash in a few peanuts (3*100K + 2*100K) here and there, simply because "it's time" for them (note _for them_, not necessarily market related).
Most people (of those I know of) with vast stockpiles are in no particular rush at all.
Selling of a few K's to get a few new toys perhaps - or simply getting bored and wanting to have a bit of ISK to play in other markets.
Again, these are people who can afford to wait, and *will* wait.
So unless CCP makes a move, don't expect to see any panic either way for a good long time yet.
That's my take on it anyhow.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.26 09:40:00 -
[1082]
Edited by: RAW23 on 26/07/2010 09:41:11 I'm not doubting the vastness of the stockpiles but I don't see what that really has to do with this. If this is just liquidation to free up some cash then it is following a slightly odd pattern (identical size stacks, price points identical to the isklet, additional stacks being dropped in to replace those being eaten through within about 24 hours, same patterns over the few days I checked this week and last week). The amounts being dropped on the market may be small from a stockpile perspective but in terms of daily volume these orders are quite significant (500k units over two days is more than 25% of the sales volume for tech) and as such have a considerable effect of prices.
If this is just some light stock liquidation (and it's entirely possible that I am only catching this coincidentally and it is not going on every day) then it is being done in a way that fails to maximise potential profit for the liquidator. Indeed, the method of liquidation seems to have been selected so as to minimise profits in the medium term by needlessly creating apparent blocks on the market that will, thus, depress prices.
Edit - On the other hand, those rich enough to consider daily liquidations to the value of 10-20bil to be peanuts probably couldn't care less about maxing out profits.
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Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.26 10:03:00 -
[1083]
Technetium History
Lines are 5d-average, data from eve-metrics.com
Activity/Volume going down, price niveau really looks quite artificial, especially since Nanotransistors and Fullerides movement somehow don't fit into this picture.
So how is it possible to control the price of a resource against the forces of the market, which in this case should force it up? And what are the motives for keeping a price lower than it could be?
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.07.26 10:18:00 -
[1084]
Edited by: TornSoul on 26/07/2010 10:24:37
Originally by: RAW23
Edit - On the other hand, those rich enough to consider daily liquidations to the value of 10-20bil to be peanuts probably couldn't care less about maxing out profits.
Exactly - Think lazy people
Not everyone enjoys the 0.01 ISK game.
---------
Got thinking... Perhaps I should try and clarify my point from earlier... I.e. why the vast stockpiles is a "point".
What I'm saying is that I'm fairly sure we are not seeing any attempt at "setting the price" but simply "random" sell-offs atm (from those vast stockpiles).
And I expect to see those for a good long time to come. Off and on.
I.e. the stockpiles are so vast that these "peanut" sell-offs have the gravity to do all kinds of wonky stuff to the market, which then gives rise to this or that (cartel or not) theory.
And I maintain that neither of these theories (especially the cartel ones) has anything to do with it.
Simply rich people wanting some play money for the weekend
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.26 10:25:00 -
[1085]
It's the Organisation of the Technetium Exporting Coalition.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.26 16:06:00 -
[1086]
Edited by: RAW23 on 26/07/2010 16:06:25
Originally by: TornSoul Edited by: TornSoul on 26/07/2010 10:24:37
Originally by: RAW23
Edit - On the other hand, those rich enough to consider daily liquidations to the value of 10-20bil to be peanuts probably couldn't care less about maxing out profits.
Exactly - Think lazy people
Not everyone enjoys the 0.01 ISK game.
This is really what is confusing me, I guess. What I'm seeing is both too lazy and not quite lazy enough. Why bother breaking your stack up into 3 identical stacks of 100k? But then, if you are going to break the stack up, why make all the prices exactly the same? I'm probably trying to extract too deep a planned psychological effect from a personal idiosyncracy on the seller's part though.
On the cartel/capping side of things, I am inclined to be very suspicious of such claims. However, I seem to remember Wyke claiming an NC price target of 40k back when it was around the 27k mark. And whether deliberate or not, the stacks I was commenting on have had at least some effect in maintaining prices at approximately this level. Technetium Rorschach inkblot ftw!
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.07.26 17:30:00 -
[1087]
Originally by: RAW23 Technetium Rorschach inkblot
Lol - Nice one.
Had I only come up with that one myself, I could have saved a lot of text. It (imo) summarizes it perfectly
BIG Lottery |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.27 03:45:00 -
[1088]
Originally by: Zenon Mu Technetium History Lines are 5d-average, data from eve-metrics.com Activity/Volume going down, price niveau really looks quite artificial, especially since Nanotransistors and Fullerides movement somehow don't fit into this picture.
So how is it possible to control the price of a resource against the forces of the market, which in this case should force it up? And what are the motives for keeping a price lower than it could be?
Suppose a "plot by the NC" really does exist, what exactly would be their plan of action ? Well, I cand find some logic in it... not the best one, but it's one of the possible explanations anyway.
They might be trying to process most of the extracted technetium directly "on site" into Nanotransistors/Fullerides, and only put on the market the Technetium located in places where there's no decent supply of Platinum around (because it's hard to believe a supply of the other minerals needed could be likely), so they're actually getting a "decent bang for their buck" from there directly. Reacting in lowsec (where most, if not all of Jita-purchased-materials go to be reacted) has a slightly higher fuel price, and empire fuel costs have risen quite a bit recently too (whereas in 0.0 PI can produce relatively cheap fuel), and hauling has to be done two-ways for lowsec, on top of harsher competition for Platinum moons (or worse, if you have to buy Platinum too, that's even more hauling to be done), which makes reacting with purchased Technetium quite a bit less appealing than reacting it where it's extracted. Also, last but not least, by keeping Technetium prices low, they have TWO beneficial side-effects : people that stockpiled for speculation purposes are far more likely to start getting rid of their stocks (the more they wait, the lower they return, they might need liquidity, they might have used technetium as collateral and new owners what to get rid of it, etc) AND they reduce the desirability of owning a Technetium moon in the first place, so they have to contend with far less attacks while they solidify their position.
Like I said, not the best argument, but it makes some sense for them to do it like that. Obviously, whenever Nano/Full will start spiking too hard (and it looks like they just might) and make lowsec reacting for them again the best reactions possible (which they not quite are yet), attempting to maintain the Tech prices at the bottom would start proving counter-productive quite fast. Unless, of course, they are actually betting on a second bubble which they could re-crash to re-establish the current status quo for yet another while.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.07.27 09:27:00 -
[1089]
Is everyone not seeing the BIG white elephant in the room?
It is simply impossible in the casual sandbox that is EVE to organize a cartel on the scale of all of NC inhabitants... Even though it would only involve the sub-set of people having tech moons.
Another BIG white elephant that I'm a bit surprised no one has noticed is: *I* am NC (and have tech moons)
And I keep telling you : There's no such thing as an NC wide tech cartel as you envision it
Let the poor horse alone already.
Try and explain what's going on on the market without that crutch.
It's almost like the folks of old : "Lightning!! It must be the works of Gods, how else can it be explained".
The cartel idea simply blinds people to other ideas (not completely ofc - But you get my drift I hope)
BIG Lottery |
Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.27 12:53:00 -
[1090]
Ok, I have to admit I got a bit focused on the cartel idea...
It's simply because the Tech market right now does not act as I expect it to do. To summarize what we're talking about:
a) T2 consumption trending upwards b) the relative scarcity of Tech c) the unattractivity of doing low-sec reactions
for a) is supported by Nanotransistors and Fullerides data for b) is supported by some impressive data mining & excelfu for c) risk/reward makes people leave
The only thing I haven't availiable is historical data of Tech-on-market.
The problem is in my eyes two-fold: Tech demand for reactions is going down, whereas Tech demand in form of Nanos/Fulls is going up. We already came to the confirmed conclusion that moon owners started their own chains, since the reaction market became attractive for them.
What I'm wondering about is when the next spike will happen. TornSoul mentioned twice already some big stockpiles, but I can't fathom how big they really are if you're of the opinion that a demand induced spike won't happen soon. Nanos/Fulls have to significantly increase (expected), or POS fuel to significantly go down again (not expected) to create a reaction-based demand (unlikely in the shortterm).
OK, so here's my final question: What are the thresholds for the Tech spike?
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.07.27 14:19:00 -
[1091]
Originally by: Zenon Mu TornSoul mentioned twice already some big stockpiles, but I can't fathom how big they really are if you're of the opinion that a demand induced spike won't happen soon.
The tech stockpiles are worth trillions of ISK (extrapolated from what I know as fact) Maybe even double-digit trillions worth (I wouldn't take a bet on that though - But I wouldn't be one bit surprised either)
Originally by: Zenon Mu
What are the thresholds for the Tech spike?
I think those have been pretty well covered so far actually.
Yet the market doesn't behave as expected.
Hence I've thrown out the info that there does *as a fact* exist huge stockpiles.
And it's the occasional (more or less random, depending on the whim of the owners) off-loading of these, and NOT some NC (or other entity) cartel activity, that is likely causing the market to behave all wonky (aka not as expected).
Yet people continue to play the "Technetium Rorschach inkblot" game
BIG Lottery |
Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.27 14:30:00 -
[1092]
Originally by: TornSoul
Yet people continue to play the "Technetium Rorschach inkblot" game
Hey we like playing detectives, and if there's no case, we'll make one ;)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.27 18:19:00 -
[1093]
Originally by: TornSoul Yet people continue to play the "Technetium Rorschach inkblot" game
It's a fun game...
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Bryg Philomena
Don't Taze Me Bro
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Posted - 2010.07.27 20:51:00 -
[1094]
All I notice is NC chars filling buy orders en masse. And I like it.
Originally by: CCP Wrangler Am I reading this correctly? You claim you have a bug that undresses female avatars???
Your signature |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2010.07.29 23:31:00 -
[1095]
Quote: Is everyone not seeing the BIG white elephant in the room?
It is simply impossible in the casual sandbox that is EVE to organize a cartel on the scale of all of NC inhabitants... Even though it would only involve the sub-set of people having tech moons.
Another BIG white elephant that I'm a bit surprised no one has noticed is: *I* am NC (and have tech moons)
Pull up a three month chart of tech. Nothing in eve that trades in volume looks like that except dyspro which is thoroughly mobbed up.
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.08.01 12:05:00 -
[1096]
Woop. I knew it was only a matter of time, just took a while...
Glad I borrowed some cash instead of liquidating some stock.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2010.08.01 12:33:00 -
[1097]
bought a quarter mil after tornsoul said there was no price fixing and stocks were crazy deep. Remains to be seen whether this is just an attempt to move pt or nanotrasistors though.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2010.08.01 19:26:00 -
[1098]
ok bought a crapton of nanotransistors......I always fall for this move - always.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.01 22:30:00 -
[1099]
Begun, the Technetium Wars has ?
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.08.01 22:37:00 -
[1100]
Edited by: Zenon Mu on 01/08/2010 22:37:26 Most probably, and we can say we've seen it starting
The only trend other than upwards will be a shortterm random plateau, whenever one of the big ones decides to cash out.
edit: grammar
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.08.02 12:08:00 -
[1101]
Originally by: Zenon Mu
The only trend other than upwards will be a shortterm random plateau, whenever one of the big ones decides to cash out.
I wouldn't be too surprised to see a quick drop as well - That is, after this wave of speculation is "over/complete" - Just as after the patch.
Speculation driving the prices just a wee bit too high, then dropping, as people cash out, and some panic selling, and then a period of "normal growth".
Will depend on how heavy this 2nd wave is going to be. I doubt it will be as crazy as last time though
Will be fun to watch
BIG Lottery |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente Staner Industries
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Posted - 2010.08.04 16:10:00 -
[1102]
So, we have a short term spike and now it's dropped back to 50k, and no comments. I wonder if whoever was behind it managed to make it pay.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.04 21:00:00 -
[1103]
I thought the noteworthy increase was _TO_ ~50k (from the previous steady ~40k), not "back down to 50k" from however much it got up to for a very short while.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.12 14:09:00 -
[1104]
I don't know, it looks like it's creeping back up towards 50k from the mini-fall back to around 45k-ish. I think we might actually start seeing the start of a steady upwards trend... but then again, it really could still be just a longer manipulation attempt. Who knows _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.13 18:00:00 -
[1105]
Hmmz, up to almost 52k, you say ? Let's see how the market handles a 1 mil unit sell order at 50k P.S. Adjusting orders is for peons
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.08.13 20:49:00 -
[1106]
Why did you have to go and do that?
Seriously though, probably best to dampen sudden fluctuations which would only lead to, well, annoyance for me
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.14 03:00:00 -
[1107]
Originally by: Business Classy Why did you have to go and do that?
"Because I can" ? _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Yaong
MoonRabbit Council OWN Alliance
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Posted - 2010.08.14 08:44:00 -
[1108]
Technetium shortage resolved?
http://www.fda.gov/drugs/drugsafety/postmarketdrugsafetyinformationforpatientsandproviders/ucm176226.htm
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.14 13:54:00 -
[1109]
Tsk, some of it actually sold already... lazy undercutters _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.18 05:24:00 -
[1110]
Edited by: Akita T on 18/08/2010 05:24:26
Heh, this went down much faster than I thought it would... not even 5 days and all gone without me ever touching the order after I spit it out ? Niiiice.
P.S. I wonder how high it will settle to in the near future
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.08.18 06:46:00 -
[1111]
You guys shouldn't be so mystified about Tech's recent rise. Over the past month or two, TCF has been handing control of Deklein to goons. This includes all 29 Tech moons. A non-negligible amount of reliable production has been interrupted over an extended period of time.
We'll be happy to reap the profits and not tank the price once all the Tech is flowing again.
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Philip Ogtaulmolfi
Milking Interstellar Incorporated.
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Posted - 2010.08.18 08:45:00 -
[1112]
Originally by: TornSoul *I* am NC (and have tech moons)
And I keep telling you : There's no such thing as an NC wide tech cartel as you envision it
Wooooo, this is the best smokecover I ever saw. A member of a Cartel telling us: "Believe me, we are not a Cartel"
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Mantra Achura
Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.08.18 10:18:00 -
[1113]
Originally by: Philip Ogtaulmolfi
Originally by: TornSoul *I* am NC (and have tech moons)
And I keep telling you : There's no such thing as an NC wide tech cartel as you envision it
Wooooo, this is the best smokecover I ever saw. A member of a Cartel telling us: "Believe me, we are not a Cartel"
People tend to see things they want to see.
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.08.18 11:39:00 -
[1114]
Originally by: Mantra Achura
People tend to see things they want to see.
Indeed. It even has a name now :
Originally by: TornSoul
people continue to play the "Technetium Rorschach inkblot" game
BIG Lottery |
TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.08.18 11:44:00 -
[1115]
Originally by: pmchem You guys shouldn't be so mystified about Tech's recent rise.
Uhm... People aren't...
It's the other way around.
People have been wondering how come the price has been stable/not risen more for so long.
BIG Lottery |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.18 18:55:00 -
[1116]
Bingo ! ^^^ this. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.08.18 21:17:00 -
[1117]
Originally by: Akita T Hmmz, up to almost 52k, you say ? Let's see how the market handles a 1 mil unit sell order at 50k P.S. Adjusting orders is for peons
Ugh ... reading that was like reading that Da Vinci had handed the Mona Lisa over to theChapman brothersbecause he was interested to see what would happen.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.18 22:28:00 -
[1118]
More like the sketches for it I still have quite a lot extra
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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TornSoul
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.08.18 22:53:00 -
[1119]
Originally by: Akita T
I still have quite a lot extra
P.S. More than enough ISK anyway, so I can afford to be "eccentric"
"Quite a lot extra" eh
Your millions and my millions... We should get together and crash the market, and make a fortune short selling in the process
You did mention "eccentric".
Just saying
BIG Lottery |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.18 22:58:00 -
[1120]
Too bad there's no proper short-selling in EVE, that would be... ahem _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Mithril Ryder
Genstar Inc
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Posted - 2010.08.18 23:31:00 -
[1121]
Originally by: Akita T Too bad there's no proper short-selling in EVE, that would be... ahem
You should make a feature request, I'm sure CCP will get right on it...
In 18+ Months
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.18 23:33:00 -
[1122]
I wouldn't want to see short-selling system-supported in EVE, it would be too... destructive.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.30 08:34:00 -
[1123]
Hey, Vaerah Vahrokha, considering what you were trying to do here, and considering the MASSIVE amount of talk, supply/demand shifts and/or manipulation that has been going on would you care to take a wild guess and poke a few sticks into the Technetium, Neodymium, Dysprosium and Promethium graphs ?
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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SetrakDark
Northstar Cabal R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.08.30 12:57:00 -
[1124]
Idk wtf I'm going to do when this stuff stops going up. I made myself these beautiful spreadsheets and a speculation system, but I've ended up holding nothing but tech. Having to actually try to make profit again is going to be a real pain.
Life is tough...
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.30 16:38:00 -
[1125]
Originally by: SetrakDark Idk wtf I'm going to do when this stuff stops going up.
Sell all, retire from trading, go to Disneyland and then Las Vegas ? _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
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Posted - 2010.08.30 17:41:00 -
[1126]
With the new extraction rates on Sisi, I expect technetium to plunge to below pre-dominion prices. The best thing to do is sell now while you can still get isk from it!
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.30 18:38:00 -
[1127]
Originally by: Vilgan Mazran With the new extraction rates on Sisi, I expect technetium to plunge to below pre-dominion prices. The best thing to do is sell now while you can still get isk from it!
Care to elaborate on this "miraculous development" you were just talking about ? _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.08.30 19:04:00 -
[1128]
Either troll post or wdf:).I don't see how tech can be tied to pi stuff knowledge is power |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.08.30 19:44:00 -
[1129]
@Akita: I made a little graph about Technetium.
Linkage - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
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Posted - 2010.08.30 20:22:00 -
[1130]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Vilgan Mazran With the new extraction rates on Sisi, I expect technetium to plunge to below pre-dominion prices. The best thing to do is sell now while you can still get isk from it!
Care to elaborate on this "miraculous development" you were just talking about ?
It was a joke, making fun of the "with the new extraction rates on SiSi..." manipulation attempts that went on constantly for a few weeks in the MD. I would expect comets to show up in the summer 2011 expansion and tech to drop then, but I doubt we'll see any major decreases before then.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.08.30 21:28:00 -
[1131]
Edited by: Akita T on 30/08/2010 21:34:24
@VM : thought so, was just making sure
@VV : short version answer (longer version in your thread) - interesting, to say the least, but with a tricky caveat. You only analyzed the short-term graph, and as such, I somewhat expect for you to have only reached a short-term set of possible conclusions (which might indeed be quite accurate, for the relative near future). However, I wonder what would happen if you took the whole one-year graph (maybe cut out the first 3 months or so) and analyzed that, just how different the longer-term conclusions will be.
_
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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RaTTuS
BIG Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2010.09.03 14:33:00 -
[1132]
And it's still going mental --
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.09.24 00:42:00 -
[1133]
Originally by: RaTTuS And it's still going mental
Nonono, NOW it's going REALLY mental. Breaking 70k or thereabouts SoonerÖ. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.09.24 02:13:00 -
[1134]
Actually it briefly DID break 70k before backing off a bit.
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meisterschwein
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Posted - 2010.09.24 08:54:00 -
[1135]
Edited by: meisterschwein on 24/09/2010 08:55:07 Inb4 epic tears when I dump my huge stock on the market
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Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 09:35:00 -
[1136]
Originally by: corestwo Actually it briefly DID break 70k before backing off a bit.
What do you mean briefly? It's there now :P
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.09.24 13:31:00 -
[1137]
Originally by: Business Classy
Originally by: corestwo Actually it briefly DID break 70k before backing off a bit.
What do you mean briefly? It's there now :P
At the time of my post it was at about 69.5, having dropped back to that after getting up to just shy of 73.
But yes, now its flirting with 80. :>
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zz01shagsme
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Posted - 2010.09.24 13:40:00 -
[1138]
How many tech moons are there in the game? |
Business Classy
Business Class Investments
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Posted - 2010.09.24 16:14:00 -
[1139]
Originally by: zz01shagsme How many tech moons are there in the game?
Somewhat fewer than would produce 1m units per day iirc (haven't looked at it for something like 9 months)... if you know to ask that question you'll now what that means
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.09.24 17:23:00 -
[1140]
Originally by: zz01shagsme How many tech moons are there in the game?
Pessimistic estimates, max 361. Semi-realistic estimates, around 390. Quite optimistic estimates, over 420.
My guess, around 380. _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
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Posted - 2010.09.25 16:41:00 -
[1141]
The big question when investing in tech is, imo, when will comets and/or some other major change effecting supply and demand hit. My guess is winter 2011 so as long as you get out before August 2011 you should be good ;P
I don't actually feel confident enough in that to mess around in the tech market tho. Good chance there's another 40% or more to be made, but it'd be a major bummer if they switched some blueprints around at the last minute for this expansion (for example).
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2010.09.25 23:51:00 -
[1142]
Originally by: Vilgan Mazran The big question when investing in tech is, imo, when will comets and/or some other major change effecting supply and demand hit. My guess is winter 2011 so as long as you get out before August 2011 you should be good ;P
I don't actually feel confident enough in that to mess around in the tech market tho. Good chance there's another 40% or more to be made, but it'd be a major bummer if they switched some blueprints around at the last minute for this expansion (for example).
Well it took them, what, five years to do anything about prom/dyspro? Less, I guess, but if they stay true to form its got awhile. ;)
(They probably would react faster this time but time will tell)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.11.27 08:50:00 -
[1143]
Edited by: Akita T on 27/11/2010 08:52:02
Originally by: Vilgan Mazran My guess is winter 2011 so as long as you get out before August 2011 you should be good ;P
Well, CCP did say there's a second half to the "Christmas Surprise", but then again, something as big as introducing comets without any SiSi tests is quite unlikely, and it looks like for now Incarna has most of the spotlight anyway, so, for now, I'm willing to bet that IF comets ever come at all anymore, it won't be before the winter of 2012, minimum...
P.S. ROFL, this thread has now broken the NUMBER OF VIEWS that the " Market Discussion Resource Thread " sticky has (100+k) _
Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.17 04:00:00 -
[1144]
Well, with some not so minor bumps and bruises, price of technetium seems to have ON AVERAGE almost linearly increased at a slightly lower rate than it's been increasing in the past two months or so from next to nothing since the patch (plus another few months or so before the patch, but that was mostly speculation noise) to almost 75k nowadays.
Big bump right before and after the patch, speculation-driven surely, a big bruise a short while after in late January that recovered relatively quickly, two big "resistance to change" plateaus most of the spring and then in early summer, another noticeable bump upwards starting in late August and fading early October last year, then and back to near-linear in the past two months. All the while, JIta-traded volumes have been hovering around the 1 mil daily units mark for the past half year.
Not quite at the 120k-ish I feared//predicted it could reach within as little as 9 months back before the patch (and before I realized just how large the technetium stockpiles could be), but still an impressive climb, and it might as well GET there or even go above it before this year is over if still nothing changes in the way moon minerals can be obtained. So, if CCP took more than a year off from the issue of moon minerals, with no peep about any of it, and with major efforts going towards Incursion and Incarna most of this entire year... who wants to bet how long it will take CCP to do anything about it ?
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Kaaii
Caldari KaaiiNet Holding Executor Corp KAAII-NET
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Posted - 2011.01.17 10:58:00 -
[1145]
I have 27 mil I stocked back in 2007-8
Can I help?
According to Oveur, existing LSAA's already anchored will stay there. kieron Director of Community Relations,
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StuRyan
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Posted - 2011.01.17 11:39:00 -
[1146]
So uhm - whats the feeling about t2 atm?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.01.17 13:45:00 -
[1147]
Quote:
who wants to bet how long it will take CCP to do anything about it ?
Why would CCP have to do anything about this? - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2011.01.17 13:51:00 -
[1148]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Why would CCP have to do anything about this?
Because they did several things about Dyspro. However, if historical action is evidence of current intent, they should start to consider action when we are above 150k.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.17 18:54:00 -
[1149]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Quote: who wants to bet how long it will take CCP to do anything about it ?
Why would CCP have to do anything about this?
Because the justification behind the Dominion change was that it's bad to have a "big point income source" (in form of either promethium or dysprosium moons back then), so their stated goals were to "even out" the prices of moon minerals in such a way that multiple moongoos would be relatively valuable (valuable enough to deserve fighting over, anyway) but none of them TOO valuable. In the very short run (for about half a year tops), it sort of worked, but now, it's roughly halfway back to the old situation, just with the moongoos reversed. So, if you are to believe their initial claims as to why they changed anything, they would have to want to change stuff again soon. How soon after they realize they should do something and triggered by what price levels, that's a whole different story, however it's the story we actually care for _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2011.01.17 19:22:00 -
[1150]
From the perspective of "point income sources are bad" its even worse than it was now, since all the tech is in the northern regions.
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Legion
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Posted - 2011.01.17 19:29:00 -
[1151]
It looks like Neod's set for a bounce. I don't know the t2 production numbers behind its demand, but market supplies got cleaned out at the low 20s pu, and now it looks like it will settle around 30k pu, short term at least. Considering its regional distribution is pretty much the exact opposite of tech, if it continues to climb while tech continues to stagnate, then that might take off a lot of the pressure to rejig based on wealth concentration.
Just my half-baked thought for the day.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.01.17 19:35:00 -
[1152]
Originally by: SetrakDark It looks like Neod's set for a bounce. I don't know the t2 production numbers behind its demand, but market supplies got cleaned out at the low 20s pu, and now it looks like it will settle around 30k pu, short term at least. Considering its regional distribution is pretty much the exact opposite of tech, if it continues to climb while tech continues to stagnate, then that might take off a lot of the pressure to rejig based on wealth concentration.
Just my half-baked thought for the day.
I would hardly say tech is stagnating . Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ...
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Legion
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Posted - 2011.01.17 19:42:00 -
[1153]
Originally by: RAW23 I would hardly say tech is stagnating . Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ...
Fair enough. It's open to interpretation, but my language was definitely unjustifiably strong.
To clarify, I personally think it will be sitting between 65k-75k pu for a long time. My guess is that every time it noses up to 75k, another few stockpiles will get cashed in, then we see the dip to the sixties and settling in low 70s again for another couple weeks or so, repeat ad nauseam.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2011.01.17 20:03:00 -
[1154]
Originally by: SetrakDark
Originally by: RAW23 I would hardly say tech is stagnating . Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ...
Fair enough. It's open to interpretation, but my language was definitely unjustifiably strong.
To clarify, I personally think it will be sitting between 65k-75k pu for a long time. My guess is that every time it noses up to 75k, another few stockpiles will get cashed in, then we see the dip to the sixties and settling in low 70s again for another couple weeks or so, repeat ad nauseam.
^
Also note that whenever tech takes a quick rise up a few K like it did last weekend traders who are ill suited for long term investing buy in thinking it will break out and they will see a good return. Then stocks get released and we have weeks of little traders slowly quitting their investment and taking a loss.
Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.17 20:42:00 -
[1155]
Originally by: RAW23 Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ...
Nu-uh, I like my EVE-Mon-based technetium price alert If wallet goes up much, tech just broke 75k _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Natasha Nikolaev
|
Posted - 2011.01.23 01:08:00 -
[1156]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: RAW23 Seems pretty steady at 75 now and if Akita would just move his 500k order up a bit ...
Nu-uh, I like my EVE-Mon-based technetium price alert If wallet goes up much, tech just broke 75k
how about you move it to 85 and then you'll know when it has just broke 85.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.23 02:52:00 -
[1157]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev how about you move it to 85 and then you'll know when it has just broke 85.
I'll put a new batch up at 80k when this one's gone, then another batch at 85k when the one at 80k is gone, and so on _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Capitalist P1g
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Posted - 2011.01.25 23:36:00 -
[1158]
Edited by: Capitalist P1g on 25/01/2011 23:36:51
Originally by: PinkFish Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing.
You were saying?
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.26 02:12:00 -
[1159]
Well, SOMEBODY was in a hurry. I don't expect it to last long though. But I'm very open to being pleasantly surprised. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Legion
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Posted - 2011.01.26 02:21:00 -
[1160]
ya, i wouldn't get too excited about something that's just going to end up right back in sell orders.
I doubt people are buying now to hold long...not at 75k anyway.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.01.26 02:25:00 -
[1161]
I bought it all, and then promptly jet canned it into a random solar system safe spot for fun. That's a lot of competition removed from the market and price should rocket!
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2011.01.26 16:48:00 -
[1162]
Originally by: Capitalist P1g Edited by: Capitalist P1g on 25/01/2011 23:36:51
Originally by: PinkFish Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing.
You were saying?
It did. I re-bought at 66-67k two days before it broke 75k.
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StuRyan
|
Posted - 2011.01.27 11:17:00 -
[1163]
Edited by: StuRyan on 27/01/2011 11:17:48
Originally by: PinkFish
Originally by: Capitalist P1g Edited by: Capitalist P1g on 25/01/2011 23:36:51
Originally by: PinkFish Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing.
You were saying?
It did. I re-bought at 66-67k two days before it broke 75k.
Just my 2 cents but those who are lucky enough to cap a tech should make it their duty not to let these prices get out of hand.... e.g. to keep it at 75k reason being if its stable below the prices of Dyps before the patch, something to fight over - if prices get stupid then we may just be back to square 1, a complete overhaul of moon goo. Currently atm - yes the biggest NAP train holds them so grow some and come get em.
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2011.01.27 13:26:00 -
[1164]
Originally by: StuRyan Edited by: StuRyan on 27/01/2011 11:17:48
Originally by: PinkFish
Originally by: Capitalist P1g Edited by: Capitalist P1g on 25/01/2011 23:36:51
Originally by: PinkFish Tech will drop again, we'll probably see mid 60s again before we break 75k on an upswing.
You were saying?
It did. I re-bought at 66-67k two days before it broke 75k.
Just my 2 cents but those who are lucky enough to cap a tech should make it their duty not to let these prices get out of hand.... e.g. to keep it at 75k reason being if its stable below the prices of Dyps before the patch, something to fight over - if prices get stupid then we may just be back to square 1, a complete overhaul of moon goo. Currently atm - yes the biggest NAP train holds them so grow some and come get em.
There are natural barriers to tech rising too fast in the psychology of stockpile holders. Tech will bounce off of the prices they decide to sell at. These prices are generally easy to predict.
CCP will fix moon goo again regardless of what we do. This is good, as another major dynamic change will create another bottleneck for us to get rich on. Changes benefit the traders, while a stable system only benefits the largest alliances.
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StuRyan
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Posted - 2011.01.27 13:59:00 -
[1165]
Originally by: PinkFish There are natural barriers to tech rising too fast in the psychology of stockpile holders. Tech will bounce off of the prices they decide to sell at. These prices are generally easy to predict.
CCP will fix moon goo again regardless of what we do. This is good, as another major dynamic change will create another bottleneck for us to get rich on. Changes benefit the traders, while a stable system only benefits the largest alliances.
I would have to ask why does ccp need to do anything? It's creating conflict in the North of the game, I can now see why the south wasn't Chosen as the new bottleneck (its an area full of conflict itself). I am not saying they have it the worst becuase they still have a nice source of passive income.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.01.27 14:03:00 -
[1166]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 27/01/2011 14:03:54
Originally by: StuRyan
Originally by: PinkFish There are natural barriers to tech rising too fast in the psychology of stockpile holders. Tech will bounce off of the prices they decide to sell at. These prices are generally easy to predict.
CCP will fix moon goo again regardless of what we do. This is good, as another major dynamic change will create another bottleneck for us to get rich on. Changes benefit the traders, while a stable system only benefits the largest alliances.
I would have to ask why does ccp need to do anything? It's creating conflict in the North of the game, I can now see why the south wasn't Chosen as the new bottleneck (its an area full of conflict itself). I am not saying they have it the worst becuase they still have a nice source of passive income.
Because they want dynamic, moving conflict. Half of 0.0 is empty because it's not worth keeping. Distribute wealth all over and it a) might put an end to massive power blocs and let smaller corps/alliances carve out a piece and b) spread the conflict zones for those big alliances that CAN hold together large amounts of space that aren't concentrated around specific hotzones.
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StuRyan
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Posted - 2011.01.27 14:24:00 -
[1167]
Edited by: StuRyan on 27/01/2011 14:23:53
Originally by: Caldariftw123 Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 27/01/2011 14:03:54
Originally by: StuRyan
Originally by: PinkFish There are natural barriers to tech rising too fast in the psychology of stockpile holders. Tech will bounce off of the prices they decide to sell at. These prices are generally easy to predict.
CCP will fix moon goo again regardless of what we do. This is good, as another major dynamic change will create another bottleneck for us to get rich on. Changes benefit the traders, while a stable system only benefits the largest alliances.
I would have to ask why does ccp need to do anything? It's creating conflict in the North of the game, I can now see why the south wasn't Chosen as the new bottleneck (its an area full of conflict itself). I am not saying they have it the worst becuase they still have a nice source of passive income.
Because they want dynamic, moving conflict. Half of 0.0 is empty because it's not worth keeping. Distribute wealth all over and it a) might put an end to massive power blocs and let smaller corps/alliances carve out a piece and b) spread the conflict zones for those big alliances that CAN hold together large amounts of space that aren't concentrated around specific hotzones.
Distribute wealth and you get nothing to fight over.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.28 09:13:00 -
[1168]
Since I'll be away on another vacation with limited or perhaps even no internet connectivity for about a week starting in a few hours, I left a "gift of technetium" on the market yet again Enjoy the 1 mil units of technetium at 85k a piece, and the tiny bonus of 2 mil nanotransistors at 5k Wondering how much (if any) will sell until the end of the next weekend, when I'll almost surely be back...
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.01.28 09:20:00 -
[1169]
Technetium price is at the moment purely driven by speculators and not by demand.
Why?
Because the products like platinum technite and to a much lesser degree fluxed condensates are a lot cheaper than their components. If there would be a high demand from manufacturers then especially the PT would be bought off already a good while ago.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.28 13:02:00 -
[1170]
More like nanotransistors and fullerides instead of platinum technite, but yeah, you're generally right... right now, this huge bump in technetium is most likely somebody who wants to make a quick buck manipulating it upwards.
However, it might just be that the increased price level for technetium sticks (since just about everybody realized that the prediction I made over a year ago is more or less right on the money), and in a few days you might also see platinum technite going up, and by the end of the other week, nano//full might also jump up accordingly. Of course, it could correct itself and end up hovering around 75k for another while with PT/nano/full just barely going up.
I guess we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for everything to go up noticeably (because the only sure thing is, they will go up if CCP doesn't change something again soon). _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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PinkFish
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Posted - 2011.01.28 13:02:00 -
[1171]
Originally by: Gnulpie Technetium price is at the moment purely driven by speculators and not by demand.
Why?
Because the products like platinum technite and to a much lesser degree fluxed condensates are a lot cheaper than their components. If there would be a high demand from manufacturers then especially the PT would be bought off already a good while ago.
This is true but not in the way you think. Speculators like AkitaT are responsible for holding the price down.
Speculators were largely driven from Technetium for a while by the bot attempt to crash the market. When Tech shot back up to 75k there was very little activity from speculators buying in. We watched all stockpiles released at 75k slowly chip away due to normal demand with a minimum influx of new Tech. Now the stockpiles at 85k will slowly chip away so that in another month or two Tech will be bottom heavy again and ready to spike. This is the new cycle until either stocks run out and Tech shoots to the moon or 0.0 becomes peaceful care-bear land again and supply increases.
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SetrakDark
DarkCorp Legion
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Posted - 2011.01.28 14:55:00 -
[1172]
You're right in that the latest tech bump is speculation driven. Someone went and dumped 30b+ on tech that is going to end up right back on sell orders, if it hasn't already.
However, I would also say that 39k is a good price to buy plat tech at to hold for the medium or even long term.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:00:00 -
[1173]
Edited by: Akita T on 21/02/2011 19:04:39
Well, it took a while but somebody just bought out my 1 mil at 85k Lemme check who...
Hmm, seems it was 11 people over the course of 7 hours, with two larger purchasers getting 85% of it (~50% on the earlier purchaser, ~35% on the last one). _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.02.21 19:12:00 -
[1174]
Conspiracy I tell you. All 11 were in it together.makr my wordys
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Isa Lynn
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Posted - 2011.02.23 02:02:00 -
[1175]
maybe a bit off topic, but then again it was mentioned earlier in this thread (page 3 or so I believe), but anyone notice the Chromium change in price? what's up with this?
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.02.23 12:42:00 -
[1176]
nomnomnom, my little tech pile is making me happy! hehe, WHERE WILL IT END?!
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.02.23 18:57:00 -
[1177]
Originally by: Wabs nomnomnom, my little tech pile is making me happy! hehe, WHERE WILL IT END?!
Somewhere around 120k most likely, but a short-term peak of around 150k or even higher might be possible at some time in the future. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Drakus
Minmatar Mercurialis Inc. RAZOR Alliance
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Posted - 2011.02.23 22:15:00 -
[1178]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Wabs nomnomnom, my little tech pile is making me happy! hehe, WHERE WILL IT END?!
Somewhere around 120k most likely, but a short-term peak of around 150k or even higher might be possible at some time in the future.
Heh, just last night I was saying 120k by June in corp chat :) Glad to see that I'm not crazy :) |
Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2011.02.23 23:00:00 -
[1179]
The Tech price is slowly but steadily climbing to dys-prom heights... but only stable if the wider bottleneck is carried by sales increases of the T2 ships market. The trade volumes of advanced materials don't indicate a demand increase of T2 ships, random looks at various T2 ships do not show a significant increase in demand either. So, was my research or my thoughtprocess not thorough enough?
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StuRyan
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Posted - 2011.02.24 10:06:00 -
[1180]
Originally by: Zenon Mu The Tech price is slowly but steadily climbing to dys-prom heights... but only stable if the wider bottleneck is carried by sales increases of the T2 ships market. The trade volumes of advanced materials don't indicate a demand increase of T2 ships, random looks at various T2 ships do not show a significant increase in demand either. So, was my research or my thoughtprocess not thorough enough?
Are there products in the t2 ship BOM that have decreased in price and need? - I think there are..... However - the further down the chain you go the longer it takes for prices to increase. You see this in Tech prices increasing on day #1 and fullerides eventually increasing on day # 5.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2011.02.24 13:33:00 -
[1181]
Ooops.... Looks like its Going the Wrong Way
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.02.24 13:47:00 -
[1182]
Gona crash sell sell sell
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.02.24 13:55:00 -
[1183]
Originally by: Queen Athena Ooops.... Looks like its Going the Wrong Way
With regard to your predictions, it certainly is:
From roughly a year ago
Originally by: Queen Athena
I also noticed that, there are a small group of people who keep trying to pull the price up with 2k, 5k orders. But the price keeps falling.
It has been mentioned in some trade chat channels that there were hundreds of investors who bought in at 35k and 36k and are holding their stocks. So even if the price were to go up, there will be another flood of Technetium on the market around that mark.
I feel truly sorry for those who listened to Akita after the initial rise. Akita made tons of isk, but on the back of hundreds of players who thought 40k or 60k was just the start. It goes to show that with enough isk, even moon goo can be manipulated.
I never worked out if you were serious, though, or just part of Lord Xsi???'s attempt to pick up a bunch on the cheap.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:04:00 -
[1184]
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Queen Athena Ooops.... Looks like its Going the Wrong Way
With regard to your predictions, it certainly is:
From roughly a year ago
Originally by: Queen Athena
I also noticed that, there are a small group of people who keep trying to pull the price up with 2k, 5k orders. But the price keeps falling.
It has been mentioned in some trade chat channels that there were hundreds of investors who bought in at 35k and 36k and are holding their stocks. So even if the price were to go up, there will be another flood of Technetium on the market around that mark.
I feel truly sorry for those who listened to Akita after the initial rise. Akita made tons of isk, but on the back of hundreds of players who thought 40k or 60k was just the start. It goes to show that with enough isk, even moon goo can be manipulated.
I never worked out if you were serious, though, or just part of Lord Xsi???'s attempt to pick up a bunch on the cheap.
Considering there is millions of units worth of speculation still at large... And Technetium itself is completely worthless unless reacted, I am going to say that the price is still being largely propped up by players with tons of money. Buying tech off the market doesnt eliminate it from the game, and more is produced every hour. Buying it just keeps it out of the hands of reactors for a short time.
And my predictions, if you follow market history were almost always spot on with a large market retraction. The fact that Akita and you said Tech would be at 150 by now, and over 100 by last April would indicate that we are much closer to my prediction of 30-40k, then my subsequent predictions of 40-60 are much much closer.
Don't throw stones when you live in a glass house. And the house just got another 270k sell order dropped on it at 90k.
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:07:00 -
[1185]
last post made me lol, no way is dropping to 60k anytime soon... hahaha
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:09:00 -
[1186]
Edited by: Queen Athena on 24/02/2011 14:10:18
Originally by: Wabs last post made me lol, no way is dropping to 60k anytime soon... hahaha
1milion units dropped at 88k... dont eat your words
EDIT: Never said it was going BACK to 60k... said my predictions have been much closer than the 150k we were supposed to see by now
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:12:00 -
[1187]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Considering there is millions of units worth of speculation still at large... And Technetium itself is completely worthless unless reacted, I am going to say that the price is still being largely propped up by players with tons of money. Buying tech off the market doesnt eliminate it from the game, and more is produced every hour. Buying it just keeps it out of the hands of reactors for a short time.
And my predictions, if you follow market history were almost always spot on with a large market retraction. The fact that Akita and you said Tech would be at 150 by now, and over 100 by last April would indicate that we are much closer to my prediction of 30-40k, then my subsequent predictions of 40-60 are much much closer.
Don't throw stones when you live in a glass house. And the house just got another 270k sell order dropped on it at 90k.
Oh no! Not 270k! Have you been following the market recently? It had 1mil units (in a single order) dumped on it at 85k. That lasted two weeks before the price broke upwards again.
I don't believe I made any predictions myself but according to you, back in January last year, the price had peaked and the only way was down (your preidction was 12k long term http://eve-search.com/thread/1207775/page/25). But way to argue that this prediction was more accurate than the prediction that it would keep rising until over 100k. that's ... impressive, in a way.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:32:00 -
[1188]
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Queen Athena
Considering there is millions of units worth of speculation still at large... And Technetium itself is completely worthless unless reacted, I am going to say that the price is still being largely propped up by players with tons of money. Buying tech off the market doesnt eliminate it from the game, and more is produced every hour. Buying it just keeps it out of the hands of reactors for a short time.
And my predictions, if you follow market history were almost always spot on with a large market retraction. The fact that Akita and you said Tech would be at 150 by now, and over 100 by last April would indicate that we are much closer to my prediction of 30-40k, then my subsequent predictions of 40-60 are much much closer.
Don't throw stones when you live in a glass house. And the house just got another 270k sell order dropped on it at 90k.
Oh no! Not 270k! Have you been following the market recently? It had 1mil units (in a single order) dumped on it at 85k. That lasted two weeks before the price broke upwards again.
I don't believe I made any predictions myself but according to you, back in January last year, the price had peaked and the only way was down (your preidction was 12k long term http://eve-search.com/thread/1207775/page/25). But way to argue that this prediction was more accurate than the prediction that it would keep rising until over 100k. that's ... impressive, in a way.
I sure was wrong about 12k... I was wrong about 30-40k too... but your insane if you think Tech will be as scarce as Dyspro was at least not until we see the days of 100k logged in.
Considering Akita predicted 150k in a couple months no problem, and a rise to over 200k here Linkage
You people make me F-ing laugh trying to keep this price up. Fairly obvious all the Tech that disappeared over the last week is about to end up on the market soon fighting that price back down... Head and Shoulders isn't just a shampoo my friend.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:44:00 -
[1189]
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Queen Athena
Considering there is millions of units worth of speculation still at large... And Technetium itself is completely worthless unless reacted, I am going to say that the price is still being largely propped up by players with tons of money. Buying tech off the market doesnt eliminate it from the game, and more is produced every hour. Buying it just keeps it out of the hands of reactors for a short time.
And my predictions, if you follow market history were almost always spot on with a large market retraction. The fact that Akita and you said Tech would be at 150 by now, and over 100 by last April would indicate that we are much closer to my prediction of 30-40k, then my subsequent predictions of 40-60 are much much closer.
Don't throw stones when you live in a glass house. And the house just got another 270k sell order dropped on it at 90k.
Oh no! Not 270k! Have you been following the market recently? It had 1mil units (in a single order) dumped on it at 85k. That lasted two weeks before the price broke upwards again.
I don't believe I made any predictions myself but according to you, back in January last year, the price had peaked and the only way was down (your preidction was 12k long term http://eve-search.com/thread/1207775/page/25). But way to argue that this prediction was more accurate than the prediction that it would keep rising until over 100k. that's ... impressive, in a way.
I sure was wrong about 12k... I was wrong about 30-40k too... but your insane if you think Tech will be as scarce as Dyspro was at least not until we see the days of 100k logged in.
Considering Akita predicted 150k in a couple months no problem, and a rise to over 200k here Linkage
You people make me F-ing laugh trying to keep this price up. Fairly obvious all the Tech that disappeared over the last week is about to end up on the market soon fighting that price back down... Head and Shoulders isn't just a shampoo my friend.
As opposed to the million unit order and the 270K order that are set way below market price, in fact they are barely above BUY order price, they are DEFINITELY not manipulation attempts .. oh no .. lol
Please, there are people that want to see the price drop (like you) just as much as those that want to see it rise, but it has almost constantly been pushed up, up, up, indicating that supply/demand is falling on the side of the argument that you are not on ;)
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:47:00 -
[1190]
really its that obvious ?
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:50:00 -
[1191]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Queen Athena
Considering there is millions of units worth of speculation still at large... And Technetium itself is completely worthless unless reacted, I am going to say that the price is still being largely propped up by players with tons of money. Buying tech off the market doesnt eliminate it from the game, and more is produced every hour. Buying it just keeps it out of the hands of reactors for a short time.
And my predictions, if you follow market history were almost always spot on with a large market retraction. The fact that Akita and you said Tech would be at 150 by now, and over 100 by last April would indicate that we are much closer to my prediction of 30-40k, then my subsequent predictions of 40-60 are much much closer.
Don't throw stones when you live in a glass house. And the house just got another 270k sell order dropped on it at 90k.
Oh no! Not 270k! Have you been following the market recently? It had 1mil units (in a single order) dumped on it at 85k. That lasted two weeks before the price broke upwards again.
I don't believe I made any predictions myself but according to you, back in January last year, the price had peaked and the only way was down (your preidction was 12k long term http://eve-search.com/thread/1207775/page/25). But way to argue that this prediction was more accurate than the prediction that it would keep rising until over 100k. that's ... impressive, in a way.
I sure was wrong about 12k... I was wrong about 30-40k too... but your insane if you think Tech will be as scarce as Dyspro was at least not until we see the days of 100k logged in.
Considering Akita predicted 150k in a couple months no problem, and a rise to over 200k here Linkage
You people make me F-ing laugh trying to keep this price up. Fairly obvious all the Tech that disappeared over the last week is about to end up on the market soon fighting that price back down... Head and Shoulders isn't just a shampoo my friend.
As opposed to the million unit order and the 270K order that are set way below market price, in fact they are barely above BUY order price, they are DEFINITELY not manipulation attempts .. oh no .. lol
Please, there are people that want to see the price drop (like you) just as much as those that want to see it rise, but it has almost constantly been pushed up, up, up, indicating that supply/demand is falling on the side of the argument that you are not on ;)
Come on, we have seen tech up this high before, only to be squashed back down... there is no stability in this market, you cant believe that this is just demand pushing the price up... a steady, almost linear increase, sure thats demand... a bouncing ball that always seems to fall just as fast as it rises is clear manipulation. The guy who dropped the million unit order is probably trying to get out before the crash.
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:52:00 -
[1192]
No he isn't
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:59:00 -
[1193]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 24/02/2011 14:59:40
Originally by: Queen Athena
Come on, we have seen tech up this high before, only to be squashed back down... there is no stability in this market, you cant believe that this is just demand pushing the price up... a steady, almost linear increase, sure thats demand... a bouncing ball that always seems to fall just as fast as it rises is clear manipulation. The guy who dropped the million unit order is probably trying to get out before the crash.
What are you blabbering on about? Tech has never been this high so I can only assume you mean "we've seen it go high then fall again" but that's not exactly strange - it'd be strange if it ONLY went up, but going up by X% and then dropping a bit as people cash in is EXPECTED. The TREND, however, is up. Look at the year long graph and tell me you think that is a 'bouncing ball' .. I understand you have your own reasons for wishing to push the "tech will fall" agenda, maybe you are a producer or something, but come on at least try and say something sensible that doesn't contradict actual facts.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.02.24 14:59:00 -
[1194]
It all boils down to "How many tech moons exist?".
If it is considerably more (>30%) than 350-400 then the demand is currently not enough to gobble up the supply.
If there are around 350-400 tech moons, then the demand is at least as large as the supply.
Unless you have the true numbers, it is all up to you what you want to believe.
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Queen Athena
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Posted - 2011.02.24 15:03:00 -
[1195]
Originally by: Gnulpie It all boils down to "How many tech moons exist?".
If it is considerably more (>30%) than 350-400 then the demand is currently not enough to gobble up the supply.
If there are around 350-400 tech moons, then the demand is at least as large as the supply.
Unless you have the true numbers, it is all up to you what you want to believe.
This is the only truth in this market
Period
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.02.24 15:03:00 -
[1196]
Oh look .. the order is gone. Guess the attempt to push price down wasn't so successful as nobody followed the order down huh, so now it's been put back to 100K. lol
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.02.24 15:06:00 -
[1197]
had the discussion about how many moons there are before, think its 320 or so but thats just what i remember from old topics. Also not all the tech that is harvested is ending up in jita, NC build their own t2 ships to keep the price down. All those ships are not in the jita numbers but are using up tech.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.02.24 15:18:00 -
[1198]
Originally by: Wabs Edited by: Wabs on 24/02/2011 15:07:07 had the discussion about how many moons there are before, think its 320 or so but thats just what i remember from old topics. Also not all the tech that is harvested is ending up in jita, NC build their own t2 ships to keep the price down. All those ships are not in the jita numbers but are using up tech.
edit: what? is it at 100k now? lol! im at work, cant log in now....
No I meant the 1mill unit order was put back in price to 100K. It was just a blatantly obvious attempt to push the price down, but no other orders followed it down. Well, maybe the 270K order did if that was someone else, but I think it was the same person and they lost about 40K units at a cheap price for the failed effort.
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.02.24 15:25:00 -
[1199]
didnt akita just sell 1.000.000 units at 85, and after that put a new one up @ 100k? thats what im thinking
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.02.24 16:04:00 -
[1200]
Edited by: Akita T on 24/02/2011 16:06:21
Originally by: Queen Athena
Originally by: Gnulpie It all boils down to "How many tech moons exist?". If it is considerably more (>30%) than 350-400 then the demand is currently not enough to gobble up the supply. If there are around 350-400 tech moons, then the demand is at least as large as the supply. Unless you have the true numbers, it is all up to you what you want to believe.
This is the only truth in this market Period
Most accurate estimates I could find so far put the total technetium moon count somewhere between 370 and 410, with AT LEAST half of them concentrated in the north (or, well, regions with Guristas NPCs in general, not just "the north", includes Caldari lowsec areas), the rest spread out sparsely and randomly in the rest of the galaxy. If anybody has any better data showing different (higher) numbers, please, bring it forward. I don't recall anybody ever doing that in the entire past year though.
Originally by: Wabs didnt akita just sell 1.000.000 units at 85, and after that put a new one up @ 100k? thats what im thinking
1 mil at 50k a longer time ago, which held the upwards price course still for well over one week several smaller bunches in between 1 mil at 85k, sold after they sat there for more than a couple of weeks 500k at 90k put up the day after the 85k priced ones sold, and itself sold almost overnight 500k at 100k, still up there 1 mil still in hangar
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.02.24 16:40:00 -
[1201]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Wabs didnt akita just sell 1.000.000 units at 85, and after that put a new one up @ 100k? thats what im thinking
1 mil at 50k a longer time ago, which held the upwards price course still for well over one week several smaller bunches in between 1 mil at 85k, sold after they sat there for more than a couple of weeks 500k at 90k put up the day after the 85k priced ones sold, and itself sold almost overnight 500k at 100k, still up there 1 mil still in hangar
You gradually exited your positions like a trader pro, unloading by risk thresold. I am curious about what do you do in RL at this point - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.02.24 17:19:00 -
[1202]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha I am curious about what do you do in RL at this point
Had 3 radically different jobs (or 4, if you want to get technical) up to this point, only mildly related with one another.
First job out of college, a few months in, became IT&telecom contract supervision guy for the regional branch of the national electric power transport company, got very ugly (idiot bosses, political-oriented scheming, loads of "why does he get paid so much so early" jibes talking about the indirectly paid overtime and other nonsense over a usually 200-plus-hours workmonth) so I quit in under 2 years. It was mostly administrative work anyway, juggling reports, invoices, supervising equipment and work receptions and tests (mostly in the field), I only needed the bare minimum of technical knowledge to understand what was going on... so I was overqualified, overworked and obviously unhappy.
The second job also turned slowly into the third job - so you can count that as one or two total - is started as a "in the free time" technical document writing and PLC programming gig for the European branch of Mitsubishi Electric, then they started relying on me more and more for coding, I started recruiting friends to help because I was getting increasingly stressed with the first job, had a small business opened up to handle it, and when I quit the first job, it was already a 4-man operation (but everybody was only working part-time). It went relatively well but never really got off the ground, and I was once again sucked in by the administrative work with less and less time for actual coding, and eventually I got sick and tired of this one too (the story is much longer and also involves scandals and a move to a different city,but, meh), ended up unloading it all on my "right hand" (the "just take it, it's yours now" style) and took one-year-and-then-some no-work-at-all break.
My current job is relatively simple, but also very light schedule-wise... on paper, I work at the office for a power line and power station design company, in reality I work from home and for more than just one company. Work is project-based with deadlines and intermediary milestones, with occasional in-the-field excursions when needed (not that often). It's usually a couple of days of work (mostly just some light AutoCAD drawing, a bit of Excel spreadheeting for calculations, loads of reading of prospects and loads of copypasting of junk from standards and templates then adapting it to the current project) followed by a week or so of waiting (waiting for documentation, waiting for client approval or response, waiting for just about anything), if not even less work and even more waiting.
And no, I never ever actually traded in RL, neither stocks nor forex, although I had a few friends that are quite into the latter.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.02.25 08:16:00 -
[1203]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 24/02/2011 17:32:31
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha I am curious about what do you do in RL at this point
Had 3 radically different jobs.............[story]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha You gradually exited your positions like a trader pro, unloading by risk thresold.
Just seemed like the natural thing to do when you're unsure what's going to be going on... recover initial investment as soon as possible, when profits look decent unload some more product in case somebody decides it's time to alter it, don't crash the market you're unloading into, hold onto some in case it keeps going up as you hoped in case nobody is stepping in to change conditions... and be patient.
I never ever actually traded in RL, neither stocks nor forex, although I had a few friends that are quite into the latter.
Nice to see somebody actually answering a question and taking time to do so properely....! My story is a lot shorter (but im probably younger too). Im a student, mechanical engenering, and in 4 monts I should be finished and have my bachelor title :)
about the 2nd part: thats exactly what i am doing too. Tho my pile of tech is probably 1/10th of what you had at the start. I sold off 1/3d at about 85k to cover my investment and plan on slowly selling off the rest without making the market jump / drop like mad. Dont think my 300k orders will influence it a lot but the idea behind it is exactly the same as what Akita just said
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.02.25 08:20:00 -
[1204]
ooh yeah, so in about 3-4 months i expect to have sold all the tech i still have (probably even sooner if we do get a 150k spike, hehe) but then i have like 35 bil... whats the enxt investment with a sure way up?? hehe, gues we need a patch that changes the production again or something?
also, why is it that when yo start the game you work hard to get 10mil, then 100 mil, then 1 bil, and up, now im over 10 bil and i i make myself a new goal of hitting the 100bil mark... usefull? no, but gues thats life.
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.02.25 10:15:00 -
[1205]
Originally by: Wabs ooh yeah, so in about 3-4 months i expect to have sold all the tech i still have (probably even sooner if we do get a 150k spike, hehe) but then i have like 35 bil... whats the enxt investment with a sure way up?? hehe, gues we need a patch that changes the production again or something?
also, why is it that when yo start the game you work hard to get 10mil, then 100 mil, then 1 bil, and up, now im over 10 bil and i i make myself a new goal of hitting the 100bil mark... usefull? no, but gues thats life.
My preference in goals are along the lines of 'I want to X' (no numbers involved anywhere). It makes for a much better experience with smaller capital. For example, last fall I decided to get more in-depth training on PvP. Though I never ended up directly in a fight, I did learn I liked scouting and logistics better than shooting anyway (2 x Logi V finishing next week).
I was watching this discussion from before Dominion, and did have the (US$) capital to have invested at a decent level - I'm perfectly happy to drop US$120 toward PLEX->ISK if it could help prove a point. But I hadn't fully pulled out of SL at that time, and the fact that I spent $2,700+ inSL over 18 months (land owner) was leaving a bad taste in my mouth.
[And right there is the potential impact of an old SL player coming into EvE.]
@ Akita - Still no visible move from CCP on this subject yet, and as others have stated we're finally getting to the price point where they (hopefully) have to go back and re-think this. Do you have any (simple) suggestions to dampen the rise? I've seen a couple that basically extend Alchemy, but I'm not very familiar with moon/T2 stuff. [If it was posted elsewhere, my apologies - fighting a horrid cold this week.]
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.02.25 11:31:00 -
[1206]
Originally by: Alain Kinsella @ Akita - Still no visible move from CCP on this subject yet, and as others have stated we're finally getting to the price point where they (hopefully) have to go back and re-think this. Do you have any (simple) suggestions to dampen the rise? I've seen a couple that basically extend Alchemy, but I'm not very familiar with moon/T2 stuff. [If it was posted elsewhere, my apologies - fighting a horrid cold this week.]
Memory refresh : relevant devblog from 16 months ago.
As it's been said in this thread already, just fiddling with the build ratios only (as in, what advanced material goes into what T2 component and what T2 components go into ships) isn't going to be cutting it unless some pretty radical changes are made (and I mean far more radical than those we saw under Dominion), which is not exactly good.
The introduction of Technetium (and the rest in the same rarity tier) alchemy could be a stopgap measure, but thanks to recently increased POS fuel costs, the alchemy "time ratios" would have to be significantly buffed again anyway. It will soft-cap the price of technetium at least, to a level depending on what lower tier moon mineral it will be linked with and depending on how much higher POS fuel might go, while the price of the replacement material will noticeably increase (again, how much, that depends strongly on chosen ratios and other costs, but it will go up for sure).
The best solution, one that was heavily implied to be kinda promised on a SoonÖ basis (but again, this was 16 months ago, the SoonÖ is kind of long, especially with nothing in sight yet) would be any from a set of changes//additions to the game that would allow moon minerals (or maybe directly intermediate or even advanced materials) to be produced with the input being time spent by a human player doing something. Now, what that might be is heavily up to debate, and there are many possibilities... anything from a moon mining mini-game where you get small amounts of just about any moon minerals from almost any moon, or some PI addon that lets you react at a discount or using alternate materials or combine some materials into others, up to the long-promised comets (which could be mined not just for ore, but also for moon minerals)... anything you want, as long as the input is mainly just player time and the output is something in the moon mineral product range.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.01 15:45:00 -
[1207]
Seems like it cooled back down a bit, settled between my previous two sell order values (85k and 90k) Wondering how long until it breaks my new sell order value (the big round 100k)... I'd say at least a month, but who knows, I could get pleasantly surprised. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Final Revision
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Posted - 2011.03.04 15:47:00 -
[1208]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 24/02/2011 17:32:31
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha I am curious about what do you do in RL at this point
Had 3 radically different jobs (or 4, if you want to get technical) up to this point, only mildly related with one another.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha You gradually exited your positions like a trader pro, unloading by risk thresold.
I never ever actually traded in RL, neither stocks nor forex, although I had a few friends that are quite into the latter.
No offense Akita, but why the hell not? I've made a lot of ISK from several of your marketing predictions - you're gifted in reading markets.
I know it's none of my business, but I would seriously urge you to dabble a small starting amount into the markets. Maybe make some real money? (and of course, we all would expect you to blog about the hows/whats as diligently as you do here!)
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.04 16:14:00 -
[1209]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 04/03/2011 16:14:40
Originally by: Final Revision
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 24/02/2011 17:32:31
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha I am curious about what do you do in RL at this point
Had 3 radically different jobs (or 4, if you want to get technical) up to this point, only mildly related with one another.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha You gradually exited your positions like a trader pro, unloading by risk thresold.
I never ever actually traded in RL, neither stocks nor forex, although I had a few friends that are quite into the latter.
No offense Akita, but why the hell not? I've made a lot of ISK from several of your marketing predictions - you're gifted in reading markets.
I know it's none of my business, but I would seriously urge you to dabble a small starting amount into the markets. Maybe make some real money? (and of course, we all would expect you to blog about the hows/whats as diligently as you do here!)
tbh reading a patch note/future ccp position and predicting the price changes that will occur from it are a long way from trading IRL. He might prove very good, using similar skills and mentality, etc., to trade but to same one translates directly to the other and then saying "I'll make money on the market, afterall I do in EVE!" is a surefire way to lose money.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.04 17:09:00 -
[1210]
Originally by: Final Revision
Originally by: Akita T I never ever actually traded in RL, neither stocks nor forex, although I had a few friends that are quite into the latter.
No offense Akita, but why the hell not? I've made a lot of ISK from several of your marketing predictions - you're gifted in reading markets. I know it's none of my business, but I would seriously urge you to dabble a small starting amount into the markets. Maybe make some real money? (and of course, we all would expect you to blog about the hows/whats as diligently as you do here!)
Well, two reasons. Both which individually could already prevent me from doing it, but combined render that almost impossible.
First reason, I'm pathologically lazy, and I only work hard when I'm relatively sure that will save me a lot of work in the future, otherwise I don't bother. Also, I loathe physical effort, as my manbewbs can attest to. Where I live (Romania), the local tools available at my disposal to trade stocks from home are shaky at best, and a lot of red-tape-ish paperwork would have to be navigated, and then I'd have to have inspections and such from time to time, it's a drag. I barely managed to get out of paperwork a few years back when I shelved my own company (I was basically spending most of my time with paperwork or worrying and researching what paperwork I still have to do, how and why rather than do any actual work), and I'm not about to get back into the morass of Romanian economic bureaucracy willingly. Sure, I could use some out-of-country companies and such, but I have an almost healthy paranoia when it comes back to sending any of my money somewhere where I can't send somebody to beat the one holding it to a bloody pulp in case something fishy happens.
Second reason, the EVE markets are a highly, HIGHLY simplified system compared to almost anything the real life has to offer. The randomness is minimal, you know almost everything, changes have easily predictable results and you almost always know at least the rough type and extent of the changes. In real life, you'd need to spend all your waking hours coordinating a network of intel gatherers to get anything even remotely similar to this kind of detailed information, then analyzing and processing it for possible outcomes is more chaos theory rather than simple math. Sure, sometimes, it is almost like simple math... until the last minute, when everything goes to hell in a handbasket hours before you have decided to exit your position or other such stuff. Sure, I could probably diversify, hedge my bets, play it safe and all of that... but in that case the broker fees and other taxes would probably eat up most of my profits anyway (and here the #1 thing takes over, namely laziness). Or I could be a bit more aggressive and risk losing almost everything I invested so far in a margin bust of what looked like a sure thing that blew up at the last minute (which I am completely loathe doing). So, you know, this becomes somewhat of a "why bother" thing.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Fleshbot
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Posted - 2011.03.04 22:14:00 -
[1211]
Originally by: Akita T
The best solution, one that was heavily implied to be kinda promised on a SoonÖ basis (but again, this was 16 months ago, the SoonÖ is kind of long, especially with nothing in sight yet) would be any from a set of changes//additions to the game that would allow moon minerals (or maybe directly intermediate or even advanced materials) to be produced with the input being time spent by a human player doing something.
In recent dev blogs it seems CCP is reinforcing that they want to see people fight over things. Tech moons are one of those things due to their profitability.
I'd be hesitant to presume that they have any intention of fixing tech until the prices become imbalancing, something I don't see quite yet.
Just a thought.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.05 21:50:00 -
[1212]
Originally by: Fleshbot In recent dev blogs it seems CCP is reinforcing that they want to see people fight over things. Tech moons are one of those things due to their profitability. I'd be hesitant to presume that they have any intention of fixing tech until the prices become imbalancing, something I don't see quite yet.
That was always their positions, that they want people to fight over things. But it was also their position back more than a year ago that heavy-duty passive point income sources are BADÖ, and they made a great big deal of it in the corresponding devblog. They want people to fight over relatively rich territory and somewhat valuable moons, sure, but they don't want any of those things to be THAT valuable that nothing else looks even enticing in comparison.
The prices of technetium and neodymium went "outside desirable parameters" more than half a year ago. Ideally, CCP would want as many moon minerals near the top to be as close price-wise as possible, so that a LOT of moons become attractive to hold, but not TOO attractive, because that just promotes blobbing. The technetium situation is DOUBLY BAD, because most of the production capability is focused in a relatively small area of EVE space, as opposed to promethium and dysprosium which (for better or worse) were far more evenly distributed (sure, there was some clustering, but nothing even approaching the level of clustering that can be seen with technetium).
It's way past due for CCP to do anything. However, WHEN will they do something, that's the big question. I'd say half a year to a year, and I hope I'm actually pessimistic in my estimate, but fear that I might actually have been too optimistic. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Lieutenant Obvious
Lobster Sticks To Magnet
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Posted - 2011.03.06 11:53:00 -
[1213]
Actually, as of right now (post DT), someone accidentally the whole tech sales orders up to 125k.
Yum.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.06 12:59:00 -
[1214]
I just woke up and noticed the wallet bump myself Heh, whoever that was, he sure is aggressive... I wonder if this one will stick or bounce in the next couple of days. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.06 14:11:00 -
[1215]
Crash incoming.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.03.06 15:31:00 -
[1216]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Crash incoming.
Stop trying to make yourself feel better about cashing out at 75k
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.06 15:37:00 -
[1217]
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Crash incoming.
Stop trying to make yourself feel better about cashing out at 75k
I was lying :P, as part of an effort to push the price down and scoop some more. I did, however, just cash out at 100k pu because the market is way too frothy to justify 100k+ pu.
It was Serj Darek who bought all my 648k units; not sure if he bought Akita's 500k too.
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McCRAZY
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Posted - 2011.03.06 15:41:00 -
[1218]
Seems to be a lot of renewed interest in tech. I expected people dumping stock piles to hold the price down for much longer than this.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.03.06 15:45:00 -
[1219]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Crash incoming.
Stop trying to make yourself feel better about cashing out at 75k
I was lying :P, as part of an effort to push the price down and scoop some more. I did, however, just cash out at 100k pu because the market is way too frothy to justify 100k+ pu.
It was Serj Darek who bought all my 648k units; not sure if he bought Akita's 500k too.
Heh. Very cheeky.
Serj Darek picked up the c. 100k units I had on at just under 100 too.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.06 15:59:00 -
[1220]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar It was Serj Darek who bought all my 648k units; not sure if he bought Akita's 500k too.
date,transID,quantity,type,price,clientName,stationName,transactionType,transactionFor 2011-03-06 10:57:00,1743807598,410001,Technetium,100000.00,Serj Darek,Jita IV - Moon 4 - Caldari Navy Assembly Plant,Sell,Personal 2011-03-06 10:57:00,1743807452,89999,Technetium,100000.00,Serj Darek,Jita IV - Moon 4 - Caldari Navy Assembly Plant,Sell,Personal
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.06 16:36:00 -
[1221]
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 06/03/2011 16:39:06 Well there you go.
I'm prepared to call tech a bubble right now. I've noticed that industrialist demand lags behind the price after every big jump, as they wait to see if it goes back down and the derivative products' prices catch up. However, industrialist demand may be meeting the lower estimates for extracted supply at 90-95k pu, depending on how much of the latest purchases have been speculative. Considering the quick succession of volume spikes and troughs, I'd say the last two weeks has seen 3m-4m (edit: maybe 4m-5m would be more accurate) units be bought off for holding, with average daily long-term industrialist demand at 600kish.
I'll happily admit that I'd like to see the price crash, but I do honestly believe what I'm saying here, whether I'm correct or not.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.03.06 16:42:00 -
[1222]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 06/03/2011 16:39:06 Well there you go.
I'm prepared to call tech a bubble right now. I've noticed that industrialist demand lags behind the price after every big jump, as they wait to see if it goes back down and the derivative products' prices catch up. However, industrialist demand may be meeting the lower estimates for extracted supply at 90-95k pu, depending on how much of the latest purchases have been speculative. Considering the quick succession of volume spikes and troughs, I'd say the last two weeks has seen 3m-4m (edit: maybe 4m-5m would be more accurate) units be bought off for holding, with average daily long-term industrialist demand at 600kish.
I'll happily admit that I'd like to see the price crash, but I do honestly believe what I'm saying here, whether I'm correct or not.
Uh huh. Just like last time, right?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.06 16:52:00 -
[1223]
rofl
Ya my credibility is shot admittedly, but you can see for yourselves what I'm describing, though obviously it's open to interpretation.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.06 21:35:00 -
[1224]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I'm prepared to call tech a bubble right now.
Short-term speculatory bubble, probably. However, very long-term price in absence of any additional CCP tweaking (almost impossible to predict when and how or even if) is most likely closer to 200k rather than the current price. So, not so much a bubble as a wave on a trend. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.06 22:34:00 -
[1225]
Originally by: Akita T ...very long-term price is most likely closer to 200k rather than the current price...
I'm seriously starting to doubt that.
Ever since 80k pu, much of the supply has been bought up in large chunks by single buyers, leading me to believe that up to half of the daily average volume has been speculation-driven. Even if there was no speculation or even daily reselling, the 1m unit volume average is about the point where the lowball tech moon count estimates would put daily supply. So even best case scenario for long term price has the natural peak at 100k pu.
Add the strong possibility that actual industrialist demand may be half that, a higher moon count estimate, and the continued existence of vast stockpiles, and I'd say we're at the peak of a bubble that will burst any day now. I'd say the only hope for a sustained price above 100k pu is bigger fools than the people still holding stockpiles now.
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Mandy Bonebright
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Posted - 2011.03.06 23:12:00 -
[1226]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Akita T ...very long-term price is most likely closer to 200k rather than the current price...
I'm seriously starting to doubt that.
Ever since 80k pu, much of the supply has been bought up in large chunks by single buyers, leading me to believe that up to half of the daily average volume has been speculation-driven. Even if there was no speculation or even daily reselling, the 1m unit volume average is about the point where the lowball tech moon count estimates would put daily supply. So even best case scenario for long term price has the natural peak at 100k pu.
Add the strong possibility that actual industrialist demand may be half that, a higher moon count estimate, and the continued existence of vast stockpiles, and I'd say we're at the peak of a bubble that will burst any day now. I'd say the only hope for a sustained price above 100k pu is bigger fools than the people still holding stockpiles now.
Why does this sound like someone who shot their wad below 100K pu and is now trying to drive the market down so they can buy back in and make more? The price will drop back below 100K pu for a few day maybe but will find itself going back up shortly after. Over 2 million units sold today shows that there is someone buying vast quantities that is looking for the price to go way up. There are other investors who are looking for the same outcome. I have to agree with Akita the price will continue to go up as folks are making isk on it. Will it hit 200K pu, not entirely sure, but the bubble is far from over.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.06 23:49:00 -
[1227]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 06/03/2011 23:50:51
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Akita T ...very long-term price is most likely closer to 200k rather than the current price...
I'm seriously starting to doubt that.
Ever since 80k pu, much of the supply has been bought up in large chunks by single buyers, leading me to believe that up to half of the daily average volume has been speculation-driven. Even if there was no speculation or even daily reselling, the 1m unit volume average is about the point where the lowball tech moon count estimates would put daily supply. So even best case scenario for long term price has the natural peak at 100k pu.
Add the strong possibility that actual industrialist demand may be half that, a higher moon count estimate, and the continued existence of vast stockpiles, and I'd say we're at the peak of a bubble that will burst any day now. I'd say the only hope for a sustained price above 100k pu is bigger fools than the people still holding stockpiles now.
You're wrong, you know you are wrong, you know how I know you know you are wrong? (lol) Because not only is this not the first time you've said this but you have openly admitted elsewhere that you were just trying to get your hands on some more cheaper tech, having cashed out recently .. sooooo .. stop talking out your bum :D It is funny, forum thread manipulations do happen, but you've kinda blown your name on this one a bit don't you think? Nobody is going to keep listening at this point.
I think one thing people haven't talked about that I have seen is that the 1million/unit tech moon daily output thingy doesn't change much, but the demand does. We all know tech 2 ships went up in price due to skillpoint redistribution, and that isk is relatively easy to make, I think the subscriber base is higher at this point and with more people able to use t2 ships/weapons, and unlocking more now through skilling different things than they would have if they didn't have the learning skillpoint unlock, not to mention the noobs getting into t2 faster than before .. are these sustainable demand increases though? I don't know for sure, but the key factor in this for me is that isk is quite easy to make, these people that now have load of t2 available are able to AFFORD it easily enough. Demand at this point I suspect is higher than it was this time last year but the supply is just the same. A lot of the buying will have been manufacturers, seeing a price spike coming, buying up some stock so that they can maintain competitive/even unfair advantages over other manufacturers .. imagine getting into industry, only to find people have 20% less cost than you and can sell a final product for less than it cost you to MAKE one.
That's just my rambling thoughts on the matter .. so tech price ^^^ up up and away.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.07 00:28:00 -
[1228]
Originally by: Caldariftw123 You're wrong, you know you are wrong...
I lied before so I must be lying now? Weak reasoning. I've also told the truth and given honest opinion numerous times on this and other characters. Everything I've suggested is there to see. It's not like I'm claiming some inside knowledge or expert opinion.
Originally by: Caldariftw123 I think one thing people haven't talked about...
Absolutely, if you think demand will hold, then fine. I'm just saying that my interpretation of the demand since 80k pu is heavily speculation-driven, and I don't believe the underlying long term industrialist demand exists. I personally see no reason to believe it does.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.07 00:30:00 -
[1229]
Originally by: Mandy Bonebright I have to agree with Akita the price will continue to go up as folks are making isk on it. Will it hit 200K pu, not entirely sure, but the bubble is far from over.
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I'd say the only hope for a sustained price above 100k pu is bigger fools than the people still holding stockpiles now.
Hi5, bro.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.07 00:34:00 -
[1230]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 07/03/2011 00:35:38
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Caldariftw123 You're wrong, you know you are wrong...
I lied before so I must be lying now? Weak reasoning. I've also told the truth and given honest opinion numerous times on this and other characters. Everything I've suggested is there to see. It's not like I'm claiming some inside knowledge or expert opinion.
Originally by: Caldariftw123 I think one thing people haven't talked about...
Absolutely, if you think demand will hold, then fine. I'm just saying that my interpretation of the demand since 80k pu is heavily speculation-driven, and I don't believe the underlying long term industrialist demand exists. I personally see no reason to believe it does.
You're posting about an item you have specifically already admitted you were trying to lower the price of so you can rebuy, so yeah I do think you are lying in general about the bubble being over .. whether it hits 200K/unit is another matter, but it's sure as hell not going to stall at the current price.*
I think the level of demand is very open to interpretation though, I can see how someone might think the demand will lessen now, and I'd be going out on more of a limb right now to say the demand WILL DEFINITELY remain, I just think the level of income in this game more than matches a huge increase in tech 2 products without people sweating their wallets, and thus even with a major increase in tech price the demand will remain. I don't know this for sure, but as I said in my other post about my reasoning behind it, it's what I think. One of us will be right! I suspect we're both rich enough to not give two ****s either way though, it's mostly for fun at this point.
* long term I meant, clearly it will go up/down depending on stock dumping but barring ccp intervention the price will rise much higher than 110K
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.07 00:52:00 -
[1231]
Originally by: Caldariftw123 You're posting about an item you have specifically already admitted you were trying to lower the price of so you can rebuy, so yeah I do think you are lying in general about the bubble being over .. whether it hits 200K/unit is another matter, but it's sure as hell not going to stall at the current price.*
The point I'm trying to make here is that there's nothing for me to be "lying" about. Even if my expressed beliefs about the various unknown elements weren't genuine, they would still be valid (as far as I am aware). Furthermore, I don't hold any position of authority on the subject in the first place, nor am I attempting to insinuate that I do, so my past honesty should really play no part in evaluating what I say.
Consider it as if I were playing devil's advocate, just because I don't believe my own argument does not invalidate otherwise valid points.
I am genuinely interested in the subject, academically and practically. I have presented a valid viewpoint and am open to refutations, elaborations, and disagreements of all sorts.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.07 01:20:00 -
[1232]
Edited by: Akita T on 07/03/2011 01:24:23
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Akita T ...very long-term price is most likely closer to 200k rather than the current price...
I'm seriously starting to doubt that. Ever since 80k pu, much of the supply has been bought up in large chunks by single buyers, leading me to believe that up to half of the daily average volume has been speculation-driven. Even if there was no speculation or even daily reselling, the 1m unit volume average is about the point where the lowball tech moon count estimates would put daily supply. So even best case scenario for long term price has the natural peak at 100k pu. Add the strong possibility that actual industrialist demand may be half that, a higher moon count estimate, and the continued existence of vast stockpiles, and I'd say we're at the peak of a bubble that will burst any day now. I'd say the only hope for a sustained price above 100k pu is bigger fools than the people still holding stockpiles now.
Well, in Jita, nanotransistors are trading at slightly below 20 mil units/day and fullerides at over 20 mil/day on average, have been doing so for quite a while now (at almost constantly increasing prices for a few months) and that represents very roughly 1 mil technetium per day (a bit less, but close enough)... and Jita doesn't exactly hold the absolute monopoly on advanced material trade (unlike moon mineral trade, where it's almost the only place they're being traded), but yeah, the Jita volume is overwhelming compared to the rest of the regions. However, I also wonder on one hand how much is being double-traded before consumption, and how much is not even put up on the market in Jita at all but instead turned into T2 components by whoever reacts it directly... or, heck, how much technetium is reacted directly instead of sold in Jita at all.
The real current industrial//reactor demand for technetium could be just about anywhere between 900k and 1.2 mil units per day. That would correspond to somewhere between 375 and 500 technetium moons' worth of permanent extraction. Sure, the low number does roughly correspond to the lowball estimate for technetium moon count, but the high number is a bit over the most optimistic estimate for technetium moon counts.
So, I guess it all comes down to something very simple... ...how many technetium moons do you believe there are, and how high do you think the actual technetium consumption rate is.
Me, I'm quite certain we're still burning noticeably more technetium than can be (or is being) extracted and we'll run out of stockpiles sooner or later, in which case, prices WILL be going up like crazy. You seem to think stockpiles are relatively steady or even increasing, which is the only scenario in which prices could possibly start going down.
I guess time will tell who's right, if CCP does not intervene. Or if CCP does intervene, let's hope they're at least going to offer us some statistics. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.07 02:56:00 -
[1233]
I agree with your moon count estimate, maybe I'd lean closer to 450 than 400. However, my impression from the advanced mats charts is approx. 800k tech units real demand for stuff built at 85k pu tech. Furthermore, there is a decrease in overall volumes with price increases, enough that I'd say 700k unit real demand at stuff built with 100k pu tech. To me, that's the break-even point for overall galactic output, saying 300k or so of the output never passes through Jita as advanced materials (being generous, in my opinion).
So even if I were to be generous, I can maybe say 120k pu stable price. However, I also believe that stockpiles have actually been increasing for the past month (this seems pretty obvious to me from the sporadic daily volume spikes and overall speed in price increase). Therefore, whenever people stop buying in, you're going to have a daily surplus and huge stockpiles.
I think the key difference, as mentioned, is people seem to think that end-product tech demand isn't going to decrease significantly with price. Looking at the advanced mats charts, I don't see how that is justified, not past 100k pu tech in my opinion and definitely nowhere near 200k pu or even 150k pu.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.07 03:16:00 -
[1234]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Furthermore, there is a decrease in overall volumes with price increases
Well, see, it doesn't work like that with moon minerals and T2 stuff. First off, the demand for T2 items in general is very inelastic up to the point where other non-T2 alternatives for specific items become attractive due to hyperinflated prices, then it quickly shifts, then it becomes very inelastic again... on top of a CONSTANTLY increasing demand trend due to the number of people able to use T2 stuff constantly increasing. Second, T2 item prices are very reluctant to change to begin with, and rather than T2 prices going up because some moon mineral is in low supply, the much more likely alternative is that other moon minerals drop in price to at least partially compensate, so that the price of T2 items only slowly rises. All in all, there is usually a very negligible volume decrease whenever T2 prices rise, they need to rise substantially to get a noticeable reduction in quantity traded.
Quote: enough that I'd say 700k unit real demand at stuff built with 100k pu tech.
Even 900k is a very conservative number, but 700k is completely out of the question.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.07 04:40:00 -
[1235]
Originally by: Akita T Well, see...
This is the part I don't buy, and this is the part that a lot of people are taking on faith. It's not that I think it doesn't make sense or that it's an inherently poor analysis; it sounds fine. Rather, I don't buy it because I don't see it. I see a steady and increasing decline in advance mat and component volumes. It's not huge, but it's there. Furthermore, for the kinds of gains people are expecting for tech, it will only become more pronounced.
I do accept the point that the other moons will soak up a lot of the downward price pressure, but I think a lot of your expectation still rests on an almost perfectly elastic demand for t2 junk. I think this faith may be misplaced. More importantly, I think a LOT of people have taken this as gospel without really thinking about it for themselves.
Originally by: Akita T Even 900k is a very conservative number, but 700k is completely out of the question.
Sorry, I meant real demand, without arbitrage trading. I dropped a rough estimate of 20% reselling based on other markets that can soak up similar trading capital. For myself, I need to learn the advance mat markets to get a solid estimate of reseller share before I'm comfortable with that point.
I think people who are still holding and are even still buying in need to take a long look at this idea of elastic t2 demand. Just because it happened with dyspro doesn't mean it's going to happen again with tech. I can just as easily buy a tale of t3s and faction ships/mods filling the gap seamlessly. I know I'll be taking a long look at t2 demand before I'd ever consider buying into tech and derivative products for the long term.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.03.07 10:53:00 -
[1236]
Currently Technetium (T) is "money in the bank" (making interest) And it's been like that for a very long time.
This from the perspective of someone who has a lot of "idle ISK" (tens of billions and above)
You can either leave that ISK in your wallet, or dump it into T.
And it's a safer investment than most any other you can find.
I mean - What else to do with 10B+ ISK atm?
And it's not like it's hard to get rid of again either. Even if you are in a hurry and dump it all into buy orders, if you've held your stock for just a little while, you'll *still* come out on top.
As I happen to know that there's a lot of "idle ISK" heavy people out there (*), it stands to reason that "some percentage" of those are "dumping" their ISK into T. (*)If BMBE where to issue say a 200B-300B bond, I'm fairly sure it would get filled almost instantly going by just the people I know.
The above simply to argument that a certain part of the continued price increase of T that we are seeing, are created by these people.
Some might be in there long term, some might cash out and buy in continually (to decrease their exposure) - But overall they all contribute to the continued price increase.
The other part of the equation is of course the supply/demand side of things (number of moons/T2 ships needed etc etc as others have described)
How much each is contributing to the price increase is completely impossible to know.
The point I'm getting to however is : At *some time* the price of T will become prohibitive (I personally don't think we are anywhere near that point yet though) and the price increase will start to flatline.
When that happens things will get very interesting. Those invested with "idle ISK" will start to pull out (might as well have the ISK in your wallet, if it isn't increasing in value anyhow).
The interesting bit will be just how fast those people pull out - Ie. if they panic or not. I've said it before and I'll say it again : I really think people are underestimating the stockpiles out there - By several magnitudes as well.
The potential for a super implosion of T prices are immense. We've had it happen once already, almost a year ago, it was not what I'd call a super implosion however, but it was bad enough for some people. And it was after an all to obvious bubble event - It did however keep T prices stable (very slow climb) for a very long time.
Once we reach this (potential) super implosion, is when we'll see the "true price" of T, as the impact of it will keep T prices at a steady for a very very long time imo - As almost everyone will finally have dumped their stock, and won't be willing to get back in again for a good long time.
I don't think it'll happen anytime soon though - it's months if not a year+ away yet.
BIG Lottery |
Jakob Thorngod
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Posted - 2011.03.08 22:58:00 -
[1237]
i really love all the obvious and subtle psychologic manipulation attempts in this thread
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.03.08 23:38:00 -
[1238]
When this bubble bursts a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money
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Fulbert
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.03.09 00:17:00 -
[1239]
Originally by: Jakob Thorngod i really love all the obvious and subtle psychologic manipulation attempts in this thread
80% of non-bonds/IPO related messages in MD are market manipulation.
BTW the real market bubble will start if CCP announce the Platinum Technite alchemy reaction. Many POS's expected to be deployed just for alchemying Tech -> POS planetary fuel needs expected to increase -> speculative demand for these -> POS costs explodes -> all T2 activities meltdown Planetary Interaction + massive incentive to POS deployment = BOOM. ____________________________________ Fulbert Industrialist - Casual Trader EVE Online, the best browser MMO of them all |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.09 00:39:00 -
[1240]
Originally by: Fulbert BTW the real market bubble will start if CCP announce the Platinum Technite alchemy reaction.
Well, that's the lazy and fast way of doing it, and they could have done it just as well at the time Dominion rolled in. POS fuel bubble up, whatever moonmineral will be able to replace Technetium up, and Technetium more or less down, depending on just how wasteful the alchemy reaction will be. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Durin Sarga
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Posted - 2011.03.09 00:49:00 -
[1241]
what if they tied moon harvest array output to a combination of quantity on the moon (which hasn't been activated yet) and Industrial Index of the system?
Then manpower/technique for developing stable flow would be taken into account. When things are calm, Tech supply goes up, when wars get greenlit, Tech supply goes down.
Meh, it's an idea.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.17 16:16:00 -
[1242]
Well 100k pu seems to be the psychological barrier for speculators, and industrialists seem to be waiting for the derivative products' prices to rise before buying in to react. We didn't, however, see a panicked sell-off, so speculators seem comfortable with this 100k pu stable point.
The price rise in tech from 80-90k pu is just passing through advanced mats right now with a small bump in fullerides and some pressure on nanotrans, so we will be able to observe the effect on t2 final product demand soon. However, I am more interested in the effect of the 90-100k pu tech price jump will eventually have on t2 demand, though that effect is only as far as a plat tech shortage right now.
So we'll see what effect, if any, the last two 10%+ price jumps have caused in t2 demand over the next three weeks; the first in a week and then another two more weeks for the second. If the effect is minimal, as Akita is predicting, then I'll be willing to buy in again up to at least 120k pu.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.03.17 19:55:00 -
[1243]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Well 100k pu seems to be the psychological barrier for speculators
The usual effect of "BIG Round Numbers"
BIG Lottery |
RAW23
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Posted - 2011.03.17 19:59:00 -
[1244]
Originally by: TornSoul
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Well 100k pu seems to be the psychological barrier for speculators
The usual effect of "BIG Round Numbers"
Shameless
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.20 14:04:00 -
[1245]
Finally Tech has bust through the psychological 100k barrier. Now onto 120k.
I think i may just give all my ISK to Akita T and let her keep 50% of the profit as i'd still end up stinking rich!
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.20 18:13:00 -
[1246]
Heh, somebody did clear most orders up to 118k I see... don't think it will hold for long though, buy orders are still below 100k... still, you never know. Also, not selling the rest before 125k this time which will probably need another month minimum, IMO... but again, you never know. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.20 19:12:00 -
[1247]
Tech is like magic. If we keep buying it, the price keeps going up and we get richer.
:P
I also think it's a little early for 120k pu stable, so we'll probably see a drop back down close to 100k pu. However, same as Akita, I won't be shocked by a continued speculation frenzy keeping the price up this high.
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Ethilia
Freelance Excavation and Resistance United Outworlders
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Posted - 2011.03.20 20:48:00 -
[1248]
Originally by: Akita T Heh, somebody did clear most orders up to 118k I see... don't think it will hold for long though, buy orders are still below 100k... still, you never know. Also, not selling the rest before 125k this time which will probably need another month minimum, IMO... but again, you never know.
Well I think I'll destroy the spread by upping buy orders and watching the bots (be they of the digital or fleshy variety) follow mindlessly in their rush to work the buy/sell spread. Wow, they're fast! 106k in less than 1 minute!!
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Brokara Ryvel
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Posted - 2011.03.21 09:32:00 -
[1249]
This is amazing to watch. I just wish i'd jumped on the band wagon a little sooner.
My question to the MD elite is if CCP nerf Tech then what would be the logical way to do it and what would take over?
After reading the first few pages of this post i basically can't make heads nor tails of it, but would love to be able to jump onto the next 'Tech' and become super rich.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.21 14:59:00 -
[1250]
Originally by: Brokara Ryvel if CCP nerf Tech then what would be the logical way to do it and what would take over?
That question has many different possible answers, because, quite frankly, there is no single most logical way to do it, and most of it is ultimately a matter of taste. Besides, CCP seldom does the logical thing as far as the industry/economy/market is concerned, even if one rubs their face in it. Case in point : this thread.
They could add new alchemy reactions for second or even third tier moongoo and/or they could buff alchemy "exchange ratios" even more (used to be 1:20, now it's 1:5, but even 1:2 would not be inconceivable). Or they could add moon minerals to w-space moons, but seed them MANUALLY to compensate for whatever's lacking in k-space. Or they could add ways to get moon minerals from something other than moon mining. Or they could just rejiggle the build ratios again. Or god knows what else we haven't thought about, or thought about and internally rejected for some reason but CCP got the bright idea it might work.
What would "take over" would strongly depend on which one of the possible solutions was adopted, and even then, it depends a lot on the fine-tuning of the solution. The result could be anything from "this previously worthless material nobody would have thought of is now valuable as hell" to something like "everything is now dirt-cheap, hope you dumped your stocks long ago", but even "nothing really changes other than what used to be outrageous becomes slightly less so" is quite possible.
Sorry, one can't predict what will happen by hazarding a guess... if this thread would teach you anything, it should be the fact that a lot of digging for accurate intel and subsequent calculating is needed before you can make any calls. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.21 19:14:00 -
[1251]
Well not only has the sell price dropped back down to 104k pu, but there doesn't even appear to be much buy order support in the high 90ks, never mind 100k+. This is shaping up to be the second clear failure of a blatant attempt to run the price up to 120k.
I guess that 100k psychological barrier is really dampening the speculative fever that got us from 80k-100k pu so fast.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.22 05:55:00 -
[1252]
I dunno. Not many orders between 104k and 120k. Looks like a last ditch attempt at pushing the price down before it explodes again.
Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.22 06:18:00 -
[1253]
Originally by: Herman Klaus I dunno. Not many orders between 104k and 120k. Looks like a last ditch attempt at pushing the price down before it explodes again.
Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows?
I do. You're wrong. There were no big orders pushing the price down. The biggest order was 400k units, and it was placed after it hit 105k pu on orders no bigger than 100k units, and it's being nibbled down, so obviously not a blocking order.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.23 19:28:00 -
[1254]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I do. You're wrong. There were no big orders pushing the price down. The biggest order was 400k units, and it was placed after it hit 105k pu on orders no bigger than 100k units, and it's being nibbled down, so obviously not a blocking order.
Seems i was wrong. Badly. It looks like the bubble has burst. Down to 95k and dropping. Everyone is panic selling.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.03.23 20:10:00 -
[1255]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I do. You're wrong. There were no big orders pushing the price down. The biggest order was 400k units, and it was placed after it hit 105k pu on orders no bigger than 100k units, and it's being nibbled down, so obviously not a blocking order.
Seems i was wrong. Badly. It looks like the bubble has burst. Down to 95k and dropping. Everyone is panic selling.
Do you ever post anything that's not a manipulation attempt?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.23 20:19:00 -
[1256]
Maybe he's just really excitable?
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.23 20:41:00 -
[1257]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Maybe he's just really excitable?
This
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.23 21:23:00 -
[1258]
Sounds like he could have a bright future as political commentator or maybe even a news anchor _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.24 01:48:00 -
[1259]
Besides, if you look at the graph from slightly before December 2010 up until today, a minor depression after a small spike at the end of reasonably steady climb stretch (just happened) followed by a rather noticeable spike (possibly about to happen) is what you expect to see, since we've already had 4 such cycles (the first one is far less clear, but still noticeable), and this would be the 5th.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.24 03:17:00 -
[1260]
here is the dirty secret of technetium:
all of us sellers are raking in so much money at a time we really can't be bothered with structuring the orders so they don't nuke the market, so you see these sort of cycles as alliances dump onto the market randomly
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Companion Qube
Minmatar Electron Conservation Inc SRS.
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Posted - 2011.03.24 03:47:00 -
[1261]
Akita,
Originally I was going to ask "How does it feel to wipe your ass with isk." Then I realized that I was being a bit naive.
I'd like to re-phrase my question: Dear Akita, how does it feel to wipe your ass with your own broker's fees?
I await your answer with bated breath, CQ
♥...they see me trollin', they hatin' |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.24 04:33:00 -
[1262]
I would have to say it has a somewhat smooth and silky finish, but I'd rather have a bidet.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 08:56:00 -
[1263]
Originally by: Weaselior here is the dirty secret of technetium:
all of us sellers are raking in so much money at a time we really can't be bothered with structuring the orders so they don't nuke the market, so you see these sort of cycles as alliances dump onto the market randomly
On a more serious note (not trying to get accused of shameless manipulation), are these dips ONLY because of the big alliances dumping their stock?
Also surely people must still have massive reserves. If daily consumption is so high for Tech then surely we'd be on a much higher price by now?
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Coh1ba
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Posted - 2011.03.24 09:08:00 -
[1264]
With the upcoming anouncment of CCP @Fanfest to implement the long overdue Technetium change, tech prices already started to drop by 10% in 24h.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 09:36:00 -
[1265]
Originally by: Coh1ba With the upcoming anouncment of CCP @Fanfest to implement the long overdue Technetium change, tech prices already started to drop by 10% in 24h.
This is pure speculation tho, surely? Yes, after the Dysp change previously you'd expect CCP to do something, but it's not guaranteed at all.
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.03.24 11:12:00 -
[1266]
Originally by: Coh1ba With the upcoming anouncment of CCP @Fanfest to implement the long overdue Technetium change, tech prices already started to drop by 10% in 24h.
what announcement did i miss? link pls :)
if tech is nerfd something else will become the new bottleneck, want to find out what it is so i can stockpile and become even richer!
still dont think tech is gonna be nerfd tho, its gonna hit 120 this weekend
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Fulbert
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.03.24 12:17:00 -
[1267]
Originally by: Wabs if tech is nerfd something else will become the new bottleneck, want to find out what it is so i can stockpile and become even richer!
- anything involving active ship mining : minerals (because miners would certainly mine this instead of standard ore, at least at the beginning) - anything involving POS activity (ie alchemy) : POS fuel and commodities, and the raw materials of the new recipe(s). - moon mining overhaul? Panic, buy waffles. ____________________________________ Fulbert Industrialist - Casual Trader EVE Online, the best browser MMO of them all |
Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 12:42:00 -
[1268]
Originally by: Wabs
Originally by: Coh1ba With the upcoming anouncment of CCP @Fanfest to implement the long overdue Technetium change, tech prices already started to drop by 10% in 24h.
what announcement did i miss? link pls :)
if tech is nerfd something else will become the new bottleneck, want to find out what it is so i can stockpile and become even richer!
still dont think tech is gonna be nerfd tho, its gonna hit 120 this weekend
There is a large speculative thread in S&I stating the Tech bottleneck was created to make NC rich before removing T2 BPO's and nerfing moon goo. The supposed nerf is going to be making moons 'run out' of it after so much is exracted and/or changing the goo numbers required again like they did with Dysp.
As it stands i can't find anything concrete saying this will happen and feel it's nothing more than pure speculation created to A) Bring Tech down and B) troll.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.24 13:00:00 -
[1269]
We're going through a delayed post-spike slump that is further magnified by extra volumes being cashed in by NC alliances to replace recently lost supercaps in the Geminate supercap arms-race with the DRF. We should have seen this normal cyclical post-spike trough when it peaked 100k pu, but people tried to run it up to 120k pu twice, so we had to wait for the excessively frothy speculative buying to pass.
There will be continued downward pressure as NC alliances continue to liquidate greater volumes than normal sooner than normal, but I think most speculators feel strongly enough about the long-term price that we shouldn't see a crash go much lower than 85k-90k pu.
I do find it funny that some of the most over-zealous speculators are sitting on tech they bought at up to 119k pu, and it will be a good long while before they see the price near that high again.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 13:35:00 -
[1270]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar We're going through a delayed post-spike slump that is further magnified by extra volumes being cashed in by NC alliances to replace recently lost supercaps in the Geminate supercap arms-race with the DRF. We should have seen this normal cyclical post-spike trough when it peaked 100k pu, but people tried to run it up to 120k pu twice, so we had to wait for the excessively frothy speculative buying to pass.
There will be continued downward pressure as NC alliances continue to liquidate greater volumes than normal sooner than normal, but I think most speculators feel strongly enough about the long-term price that we shouldn't see a crash go much lower than 85k-90k pu.
I do find it funny that some of the most over-zealous speculators are sitting on tech they bought at up to 119k pu, and it will be a good long while before they see the price near that high again.
There was almost 1 million units up for 130k when i checked before work this morning. If they've bought in at anything over 100k then they're in for a bad time.
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Coh1ba
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Posted - 2011.03.24 13:36:00 -
[1271]
Edited by: Coh1ba on 24/03/2011 13:36:36 Just make sure to watch "CCP presents" Sat. 15:00
best viewed with Popcorn a beer and furiously F5'ing the forums and the Technetium prize.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.24 13:57:00 -
[1272]
Economists .. full of ****/blatant manipulators - in real life AND in game.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 14:36:00 -
[1273]
Originally by: Caldariftw123 Economists .. full of ****/blatant manipulators - in real life AND in game.
We're all as bad as each other
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.24 15:51:00 -
[1274]
Edited by: Weaselior on 24/03/2011 15:51:49
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: Weaselior here is the dirty secret of technetium:
all of us sellers are raking in so much money at a time we really can't be bothered with structuring the orders so they don't nuke the market, so you see these sort of cycles as alliances dump onto the market randomly
On a more serious note (not trying to get accused of shameless manipulation), are these dips ONLY because of the big alliances dumping their stock?
Also surely people must still have massive reserves. If daily consumption is so high for Tech then surely we'd be on a much higher price by now?
Largely, yes. For example, I have ~53b tech on the market (for goonswarm) right now. That seems like a lot, but it's a little less than a week's worth. Right now, since the market's artificially low, that's not all listed at .01 below the previous price, but that's what usually happens. Since the tech arrives in spurts, and I don't (and I assume other alliances don't) religiously .01 isk our stockpiles, what happens is giant blocking orders get dumped on every so often (dropping it), huge dumps to buys (dropping it) and the like. However, when those tech spurts have been a little while coming, tech dries up and it spikes back up. Since so many tech-holding alliances hold big chunks of it, you tend to see this behavior of dumping chunks on the market rather than a steady stream that helps the market stay stable.
I am probably better than most in that I don't just dump single mega-stacks and break it up instead.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 16:24:00 -
[1275]
Originally by: Weaselior A good honest response
By breaking it up you do help keep it a little more stable. You could always dump a nice lump though and create a massive spread for us to make some ISK off whilst it lasts :-)
I did wonder where all those 30k unit orders appeared from. ha, it makes sense now.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.24 17:15:00 -
[1276]
Another thing is it's pretty unlikely any major tech producers are stockpiling tech. The reason for this is pretty simple: CCP has disliked the amount of money alliances could earn from high-ends for years, going back to the first introduction of alchemy. This is especially true with Tech, as it's value is accidental, and it's highly regional. In the short term, tech will keep going up, but in the long term, you risk a serious nerf that wipes out your stockpile. All the NC alliances have enough old guard to have the institutional memory of CCP's dislike for high-end moon mining income and probably won't make that mistake. It's much more likely everyone is just milking the cow as much as they possibly can before it goes to the slaughterhouse.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.24 19:26:00 -
[1277]
Tech going down faster than the head cheerleader of TCU after the Rose Bowl!
No seriously, no manipulation this time I swear, it has dropped 10% in a day.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.24 20:00:00 -
[1278]
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 24/03/2011 20:01:09
Originally by: Satyri Hermides Tech going down faster than the head cheerleader of TCU after the Rose Bowl!
No seriously, no manipulation this time I swear, it has dropped 10% in a day.
lol
It has dropped quickly, you're right. This is the fun part now: do you hold and hope everyone else keeps their cool or do you unload first before them? Very game theoretic.
Glad I'm not holding (edit: as in I sold mine 2 weeks ago, not just now), though I'll definitely be watching the show.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 21:07:00 -
[1279]
Where was the post about CCP making an announcement at 15:00 on Saturday. That seems to have spurned on the panic.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.24 21:11:00 -
[1280]
the big announcement is a botting crackdown
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 21:14:00 -
[1281]
Originally by: Weaselior the big announcement is a botting crackdown
Eeeek. SO much speculation. I'm excited/frightened
I did read about the BPO announcement. That was from CCP. Hmmmm.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.03.24 21:18:00 -
[1282]
Edited by: Weaselior on 24/03/2011 21:18:18
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: Weaselior the big announcement is a botting crackdown
Eeeek. SO much speculation. I'm excited/frightened
I did read about the BPO announcement. That was from CCP. Hmmmm.
the guy in charge of account security and that sort of thing said he couldn't say anything more until fanfest when people complained about the lack of action against bots and then basically said "do I need to paint you a picture here"
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Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
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Posted - 2011.03.24 21:27:00 -
[1283]
Originally by: Satyri Hermides Tech going down faster than the head cheerleader of TCU after the Rose Bowl!
No seriously, no manipulation this time I swear, it has dropped 10% in a day.
So what? It's 10% down from an all time high. That's nothing.
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.03.24 21:47:00 -
[1284]
i smell panic
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.24 22:31:00 -
[1285]
Edited by: Akita T on 24/03/2011 22:33:20
Originally by: Ludacrys i smell panic
Wouldn't it be great if people would be panicking enough before the fanfest presentations (which obviously NONE of them would contain any news whatsoever about technetium nor T2 BPOs) so we could rebuy some inventory dirt cheap before it spikes again ?
P.S. The best part about it is that what we're talking about in here is irrelevant already, thanks to the way rumours (especially unfounded humours) spread from person to person seldom ever citing sources and constantly altering the story a bit... I bet there's people perfectly convinced CCP will actually make a change in technetium while the fanfest is still running or something to that extent. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 23:10:00 -
[1286]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 24/03/2011 22:33:20
Originally by: Ludacrys i smell panic
Wouldn't it be great if people would be panicking enough before the fanfest presentations (which obviously NONE of them would contain any news whatsoever about technetium nor T2 BPOs) so we could rebuy some inventory dirt cheap before it spikes again ?
P.S. The best part about it is that what we're talking about in here is irrelevant already, thanks to the way rumours (especially unfounded humours) spread from person to person seldom ever citing sources and constantly altering the story a bit... I bet there's people perfectly convinced CCP will actually make a change in technetium while the fanfest is still running or something to that extent.
I must admit. I do sometimes panic. I think it's lack of experience in the markets really. I've only been trading for 6 months. I've made a small fortune but i have also lost a fortune too, by falling for mis-informing forum threads.
Anyway, i imagine Akita T has sold all her Tech stock so is free from any of the current price panic :lol:
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.24 23:22:00 -
[1287]
I doubt the downturn has anything to do with silly rumors. I've been playing the spread all day, and the buy orders are getting filled by (well, the ones where you can tell anyway) 50% NC and 50% traders. So NC guys are dumping more than usual right to buy orders because of the nonsense up north and some traders are getting out of short or mid-term holds with a slight loss.
The only "panic" will be if the big dik long-term holds start to get unloaded, but that hasn't happened...yet ().
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.03.24 23:24:00 -
[1288]
well if he is sure of his numbers he could help the panic by clearing some buy orders and then rebuying once sell orders follow down
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.24 23:30:00 -
[1289]
Originally by: Ludacrys well if he is sure of his numbers he could help the panic by clearing some buy orders and then rebuying once sell orders follow down
Akita has said a ridiculous amount of times that he had no certainty whatsoever about the time frame. He could have every reasonable confidence in the eventual price rise, but have better things to do with his money than sit on some more tech for 3 months while it muddles around 90k pu.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.24 23:39:00 -
[1290]
Originally by: Herman Klaus Anyway, i imagine Akita T has sold all her Tech stock so is free from any of the current price panic :lol:
Almost completely true. I kept a small portion though (small compared to my max stocks, that is) in case prices end up skyrocketing overnight.
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Akita has said a ridiculous amount of times that he had no certainty whatsoever about the time frame. He could have every reasonable confidence in the eventual price rise, but have better things to do with his money than sit on some more tech for 3 months while it muddles around 90k pu.
More like, doing that is :effort: and I'm friggin' lazy when it comes to boring routine work (not lazy at all about research, that's fun for me). My technetium sell orders usually remained in place unaltered at a big round ISK value for weeks before processing. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.24 23:47:00 -
[1291]
Originally by: Akita T Things
I'd love to know who's the 962165 units of Tech is sat at 120k. That's 115b+ of Tech! What the hell is the broker fee on that!
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.25 00:21:00 -
[1292]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: Akita T Things
I'd love to know who's the 962165 units of Tech is sat at 120k. That's 115b+ of Tech! What the hell is the broker fee on that!
Oh with really good skills... A lot
With really bad skills... A lot
On a serious note, the NC seem to be doing a lot of selling, and I don't think its for the same reasons Elise had mentioned. Imagine this scenerio for a second:
NC produces enough Tech to react on their own to use industrial corps to build slightly cheaper T2 ships at a decent profit to their corps/alliaces. NC also produces excess Tech that they then sell on the market to fund operations, line pockets, lose Titans whatever. There is a small, but significant enough surplus of Technetium produced in the game to cover all manufacturing, just not enough to cover Manufacturing + Speculation. NC has been stockpiling Technetium in anticipation of a bottleneck predicted by some of the top market minds of eve. NC just realized there is no bottleneck besides the faux one created by groups buying up Tech, so they are now freely selling their surplus Tech at massive profits and will continue with my first point.
Just a theory, but if true would destroy the wallets of hundreds of traders.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.25 01:28:00 -
[1293]
Edited by: Akita T on 25/03/2011 01:33:07
Originally by: Herman Klaus 962165 units of Tech at 120k. That's 115b+ of Tech! What the hell is the broker fee on that!
115,459,800,000 ISK purchase cost 577,299,000 to 1,154,598,000 sales tax 216,487,125 to 1,154,598,000 broker fees
Originally by: Satyri Hermides Just a theory, but if true would destroy the wallets of hundreds of traders.
If you are to believe what several people in NC are saying, most NC tech moon owners don't give a damn about long-term marketability, they want whatever ISK they can get their hands on "RIGHT NOW", and therefore can't sometimes even be bothered to put up sell orders, instead dumping it on buy orders the first chance they get to move it to Jita. What you see happening on the market certainly supports that claim. If there's any stockpiling going on, it's from a very small portion of tech moon holders. Might as well not even exist for practical purposes, if true. So, you know, basically the exact opposite of what you said, but still just a hypothesis. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Coh1ba
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Posted - 2011.03.25 09:25:00 -
[1294]
However, price history of Tech looks like an old man **** where Viagra effects have just been wearing off.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.25 10:13:00 -
[1295]
Originally by: Coh1ba However, price history of Tech looks like an old man **** where Viagra effects have just been wearing off.
Question this time tho is, will the old man get a new prescription?
I really think buying now isn't that high a risk. It's been pushed down by the scaremongers and once everyone realises that all the speculation is unfounded they'll start buying back up again.
If on the off chance they are right and tech will drop then just hit sell when it's announced and you won't lose that much really.
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Lieutenant Obvious
Lobster Sticks To Magnet
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Posted - 2011.03.25 13:37:00 -
[1296]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 25/03/2011 01:33:07
Originally by: Satyri Hermides Just a theory, but if true would destroy the wallets of hundreds of traders.
If you are to believe what several people in NC are saying, most NC tech moon owners don't give a damn about long-term marketability, they want whatever ISK they can get their hands on "RIGHT NOW", and therefore can't sometimes even be bothered to put up sell orders, instead dumping it on buy orders the first chance they get to move it to Jita. What you see happening on the market certainly supports that claim. If there's any stockpiling going on, it's from a very small portion of tech moon holders. Might as well not even exist for practical purposes, if true. So, you know, basically the exact opposite of what you said, but still just a hypothesis.
Lemme put some facts into this conversation.
At least one of the big NC players couldn't give a **** about market manip on tech. I used to take my corp's dyspro and prom to market and I barely was able to hold onto it long enough for reasonable sell orders to sell because the isk was needed asap for everything (logistics, reimbursement plans, T2 ships like Logi's and HICs for loan, replacements, titans, motherships). I broached the smart idea of bottlenecking tech with the alliance and urged it to be pushed forward as an idea for the NC in general - and got nowhere. Up until I eventually stopped playing Eve and retired from my alliance there was no sign of any cartel work ever getting off the ground.
The individual corps just love their isk too much to wait. They just dump it directly on buy orders as soon as they perform a jump freighter haul to Jita. They don't care for the spread, for market manip or for just getting a slightly better return by putting up sell orders because that is work - and the logistics guy hauling is usually the guy that is in charge of babysitting the POS's as it is (or generally an overworked logistics guy). He just wants the **** sold so he can put the isk in the corp wallet because he's already sick to death of constantly dealing with he POS's as is.
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Lieutenant Obvious
Lobster Sticks To Magnet
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Posted - 2011.03.25 13:39:00 -
[1297]
Edited by: Lieutenant Obvious on 25/03/2011 13:39:29 Posted - 2011.03.25 13:37:00
Yeah, you know it.
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Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
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Posted - 2011.03.25 14:15:00 -
[1298]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
I really think buying now isn't that high a risk. It's been pushed down by the scaremongers and once everyone realises that all the speculation is unfounded they'll start buying back up again.
There's a very strong Herman Klaus signal to stay out of this market, at least in the short term.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.25 15:23:00 -
[1299]
This is a perfectly natural downturn in a frothy market magnified by current politico-economic events. No panic, nor recovery from non-existent panic. Oh and definitely no ridiculous cartel conspiracies.
Short term sell, midterm hold/sell, long term hold/buy.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.25 16:20:00 -
[1300]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar This is a perfectly natural downturn in a frothy market magnified by current politico-economic events. No panic, nor recovery from non-existent panic. Oh and definitely no ridiculous cartel conspiracies.
Short term sell, midterm hold/sell, long term hold/buy.
I did not mean to sound like I was suggesting a cartel type situation. I merely was generalizing NC to mean "Those who extract Technetium".
It is perfectly sound economic theory that if you think something is going to be very valuable in the future, and you have extra of that thing, you hold on to it to wait for a rainy day. I do not suggest that the NC is price fixing or driving up the price, simply that individual corps and alliances were holding on to extra tech to wait for the rainy day, and it is either raining, or they started to realize that without third party manipulators the value of tech was not going to increase.
All sound economic theory and it fits with the market trends.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.25 16:38:00 -
[1301]
Originally by: Satyri Hermides I did not mean to sound like I was suggesting a cartel type situation. I merely was generalizing NC to mean "Those who extract Technetium".
Originally by: Satyri Hermides NC just realized there is no bottleneck besides the faux one created by groups buying up Tech
You can't have it both ways.
Unless you're suggesting NC tech producers have individually come to the same conclusion as each other, which also somehow the exact opposite of the conspiracy manipulation perpetrated by multiple trading cabals?
Oh wait, that's equally nonsensical and self-contradictory.
In other words, you're full of ****. Just stop.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.25 16:53:00 -
[1302]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Satyri Hermides I did not mean to sound like I was suggesting a cartel type situation. I merely was generalizing NC to mean "Those who extract Technetium".
Originally by: Satyri Hermides NC just realized there is no bottleneck besides the faux one created by groups buying up Tech
You can't have it both ways.
Unless you're suggesting NC tech producers have individually come to the same conclusion as each other, which also somehow the exact opposite of the conspiracy manipulation perpetrated by multiple trading cabals?
Oh wait, that's equally nonsensical and self-contradictory.
In other words, you're full of ****. Just stop.
I think anyone with a mind that sees Tech get run up to 100k, then see a couple single large buyers run it to 120 only to see it fall back down, not once but twice would come to the conclusion that the price of Tech is not real, its Faux.
Again, I am making a generalization, no not every single producer came to the same conclusion at the same time. A couple of the smarter ones probably came to the conclusion and the lazy or dumber ones played follow the leader. Name calling and swear words don't make your economic theory any more sexy than mine, just means you have a more limited vernacular.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.25 17:01:00 -
[1303]
Originally by: Satyri Hermides I think anyone with a mind that sees Tech get run up to 100k, then see a couple single large buyers run it to 120 only to see it fall back down, not once but twice would come to the conclusion that the price of Tech is not real, its Faux.
So your theory is that all the tech producers and yourself have (mostly) individually realized that a shadowy cabal (or multiple shadowy cabals) have manipulated the price of tech higher than its natural peak (which you haven't even hinted at, though I guess it's lower than 100k, leaving only 999,999 other options) and are now selling off into a market of people who haven't realized the same reality despite having the exact same information available as you and every tech producer in the game?
That is a good economic theory, and equally valid as my own suggestions.
Seriously, just stop.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.25 19:41:00 -
[1304]
Edited by: Akita T on 25/03/2011 19:43:42
===
Doc.E.G. was just on the live presentation, and surely enough, SOMEBODY asked him about technetium...
Paraphrasing very roughly what he said because I don't have perfect memory // transcribing skills:
"I think it's because technetium is in so many smaller items" "There might not be enough supply, but that is lame" "I don't want to talk about it" (also an off the cuff remark about being "saved by the bell") "I have no single explanation of why it happened" "We looked at the data and there's nothing unusual going, nobody is stocking it up" "We're still trying to figure it out"
Really ? We, the players, have figured it out A YEAR AND A HALF AGO.
... EDIT ...
Another player just asked about a moon mineral rebalance.
"We cannot answer that at this point, but it's an ongoing concern, we'll be looking at it" and similar.
...
"i wouldnt say it takes us years to acknowledge it - it takes us years to do something about it"
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:05:00 -
[1305]
Originally by: Akita T CCP Quotes Quote:
Could they be anymore cryptic! Haha.
My opinion of this, although there is a bottle neck, i don't see any urgency from CCP to do anything about it.
I think Tech would have to get alot higher before they'd intervene.
What did Dysp get to before they nerfed it again? It was before my time.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:07:00 -
[1306]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 25/03/2011 19:43:42
===
Doc.E.G. was just on the live presentation, and surely enough, SOMEBODY asked him about technetium...
Paraphrasing very roughly what he said because I don't have perfect memory // transcribing skills:
"I think it's because technetium is in so many smaller items" "There might not be enough supply, but that is lame" "I don't want to talk about it" (also an off the cuff remark about being "saved by the bell") "I have no single explanation of why it happened" "We looked at the data and there's nothing unusual going, nobody is stocking it up" "We're still trying to figure it out"
Really ? We, the players, have figured it out A YEAR AND A HALF AGO.
... EDIT ...
Another player just asked about a moon mineral rebalance.
"We cannot answer that at this point, but it's an ongoing concern, we'll be looking at it" and similar.
...
"i wouldnt say it takes us years to acknowledge it - it takes us years to do something about it"
My interpretation: "There is no bottleneck, so I have no idea why the price is going up"
as I type this there is someone trying to prop the price up at 94k.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:44:00 -
[1307]
Originally by: Akita T
"We looked at the data and there's nothing unusual going, nobody is stocking it up"
That's the most interesting bit to me. The rest is all stuff we already know and speculation - they're not going to confirm changes, they've made it clear in recent patches they wont post notes or tell people what to expect until it's happening so we can't screw around like we did with PI. A major moon rebalance will be as stealthy as they can make it I suspect. That quote, however .. :D says a lot.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.25 21:01:00 -
[1308]
Edited by: Akita T on 25/03/2011 21:02:16
Originally by: Satyri Hermides My interpretation: "There is no bottleneck, so I have no idea why the price is going up"
Excuse me ? Where did you get that impression from ? The exact opposite, maybe...
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: Akita T "We looked at the data and there's nothing unusual going, nobody is stocking it up"
That's the most interesting bit to me.
To all technetium holders, actually. It confirms that unless CCP intervenes, the price really can only go up.
Quote: A major moon rebalance will be as stealthy as they can make it I suspect.
I don't know... putting up a major change without shoving it onto SiSi for public testing at least for a week or so... hard to swallow.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.25 21:12:00 -
[1309]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 25/03/2011 21:12:53
Originally by: Akita T
Quote: A major moon rebalance will be as stealthy as they can make it I suspect.
I don't know... putting up a major change without shoving it onto SiSi for public testing at least for a week or so... hard to swallow.
Depends on what the change is, they only need to SISI it if it involves testing code and it's impact .. if all they do is copy some of the depletion code over from PI, for example, there's very little reason for SISI to see a copy as they already know the code works. If they just shake up the moon amounts or introduce new alchemy again there's no need to SISI it. It'd have to be a pretty fundamental change in the whole process to warrant SISI seeing it first hand, so they may announce "we're doing some changes" but they don't have to tell us the final numbers until it's too late to speculate.
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Fiat Money
The Privy Council Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.03.25 23:25:00 -
[1310]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 25/03/2011 01:33:07 If you are to believe what several people in NC are saying, most NC tech moon owners don't give a damn about long-term marketability, they want whatever ISK they can get their hands on "RIGHT NOW", and therefore can't sometimes even be bothered to put up sell orders, instead dumping it on buy orders the first chance they get to move it to Jita. What you see happening on the market certainly supports that claim. If there's any stockpiling going on, it's from a very small portion of tech moon holders. Might as well not even exist for practical purposes, if true. So, you know, basically the exact opposite of what you said, but still just a hypothesis.
On alliance and corp level there is no need for stockpiling due to the fact cash is always needed asap. Also selling Tech directly is a waste of money, and dumping it on buy orders is a no-go. Most Tech portions are reacted and put on the market, so Tech gets bullish due to low market input and reactions builds up more supply.
Current issue is that Tech is rising too fast and reactions can't follow in price. So I guess it's just pure speculation of private Tech holders causing the current up and downs.
Just take the time for the reactions (Nanos, Fullerides) to rise in price and Tech will follow soon...
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.25 23:32:00 -
[1311]
Edited by: Akita T on 25/03/2011 23:32:35 Umm...
Originally by: Fiat Money Just take the time for the reactions (Nanos, Fullerides) to rise in price and Tech will follow soon...
Nanotransistors and Fullerides remained the most profitable reactions to run out of all possible reactions for most of the duration of the Technetium climb those past few months. So what exactly are you trying to say anyway ? _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Fiat Money
The Privy Council Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.03.26 00:05:00 -
[1312]
Edited by: Fiat Money on 26/03/2011 00:06:50
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 25/03/2011 23:32:35 Nanotransistors and Fullerides remained the most profitable reactions to run out of all possible reactions for most of the duration of the Technetium climb those past few months. So what exactly are you trying to say anyway ?
I don't disagree with you here. What's the current Tech price to break even current Nano reaction? It's about 120k. So that's the psychological barrier we reached last days.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.26 02:26:00 -
[1313]
That makes more sense _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.28 19:43:00 -
[1314]
So is that it for Technetium? It's just gonna go down and down?
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.28 20:11:00 -
[1315]
Originally by: Herman Klaus So is that it for Technetium? It's just gonna go down and down?
Herman, the MD contra-indicator.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.28 20:14:00 -
[1316]
Ya, herman's getting a little ridiculous.
1) place sell/buy order
2) post overblown up/down manipulation comment
3) ????
4) profit
Nobody reads this **** anyway, and they especially don't make panicky decisions based on it. Maybe if Akita posted something extraordinary....maybe.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.28 20:26:00 -
[1317]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Maybe if Akita posted something extraordinary....maybe.
Not even then. Look how long it took people to even take technetium seriously in spite of this thread being around for a month before the patch with that conclusion in it... it took several weeks after the patch for stuff to start rally moving.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.28 20:27:00 -
[1318]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: Herman Klaus So is that it for Technetium? It's just gonna go down and down?
Herman, the MD contra-indicator.
I'm not trying to contradict myself. I'm asking a question! People were worrying over teh big announcement at Fanfest which brought prices down. There wasn't one so i was expecting to go up. But it isn't.
All i'm trying to do is understand the item and it's behaviour. I've not been doing this for years like you people and haven't got trillions of ISK either. Just a wee trader trying to find his place!
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.28 20:32:00 -
[1319]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: Herman Klaus So is that it for Technetium? It's just gonna go down and down?
Herman, the MD contra-indicator.
I'm not trying to contradict myself. I'm asking a question! People were worrying over teh big announcement at Fanfest which brought prices down. There wasn't one so i was expecting to go up. But it isn't.
All i'm trying to do is understand the item and it's behaviour. I've not been doing this for years like you people and haven't got trillions of ISK either. Just a wee trader trying to find his place!
First of all, that's not what a contra-indicator is, but nevermind that.
Secondly, you're just a "wee trader trying to find his place" and here I was thinking your place was as a blatantly obvious market manipulation forum poster?
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.28 20:36:00 -
[1320]
Originally by: Caldariftw123 that's not what a contra-indicator is
Doh! My eyesight fails me.
I have manipulated yes, e.g. the Acolyte price inflation. I'm still only a small trader tho. Whatever i try to trade in bombs so i just avoid market trading. I do watch still tho. I'm curious about the whole thing. It's fasinating.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.29 14:10:00 -
[1321]
LOL @ the person who just dropped tens of billions of isk to buy all the sell orders from 93k to 99k...
That person is about to lose their ass in the market. Why is it so important for some people to keep the price high?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.29 14:10:00 -
[1322]
I've been pulling the tech price down for about a week with incremental sell orders and filling up on low 90ks pu buy orders. I woke up this morning and didn't feel like putting the effort in anymore (it's small, but I'm that lazy), so I bought out the rest up to 99k pu.
We are in a natural sluggish phase, but the <100k pu dip was completely artificial. I think the price will continue to meander along between 100k and 105k pu for at least another month. The artificially low price has created a glut of cheap plat tech and advanced mats that will take a while to clear even after their prices drop (well, plat tech will definitely drop, maybe fullerides a little, nanos should stay stable).
Unless some big money speculators try to run it up, and I doubt they will because they didn't buy it out at <100k pu, then my recommendations stay the same
short (a few days): sell medium (1 week-1 month): hold/sell long (>1 month): hold/buy
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.29 14:20:00 -
[1323]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I've been pulling the tech price down for about a week with incremental sell orders and filling up on low 90ks pu buy orders. I woke up this morning and didn't feel like putting the effort in anymore (it's small, but I'm that lazy), so I bought out the rest up to 99k pu.
We are in a natural sluggish phase, but the <100k pu dip was completely artificial. I think the price will continue to meander along between 100k and 105k pu for at least another month. The artificially low price has created a glut of cheap plat tech and advanced mats that will take a while to clear even after their prices drop (well, plat tech will definitely drop, maybe fullerides a little, nanos should stay stable).
Unless some big money speculators try to run it up, and I doubt they will because they didn't buy it out at <100k pu, then my recommendations stay the same
short (a few days): sell medium (1 week-1 month): hold/sell long (>1 month): hold/buy
Oh i love this thread. I almost sprayed my tea over my work computer.
Elise did say, and anyone that didn't pay attention has completely missed out!
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.29 14:25:00 -
[1324]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I've been pulling the tech price down for about a week with incremental sell orders and filling up on low 90ks pu buy orders. I woke up this morning and didn't feel like putting the effort in anymore (it's small, but I'm that lazy), so I bought out the rest up to 99k pu.
We are in a natural sluggish phase, but the <100k pu dip was completely artificial. I think the price will continue to meander along between 100k and 105k pu for at least another month. The artificially low price has created a glut of cheap plat tech and advanced mats that will take a while to clear even after their prices drop (well, plat tech will definitely drop, maybe fullerides a little, nanos should stay stable).
Unless some big money speculators try to run it up, and I doubt they will because they didn't buy it out at <100k pu, then my recommendations stay the same
short (a few days): sell medium (1 week-1 month): hold/sell long (>1 month): hold/buy
Oh good, its you that is losing money... I am glad it is not someone I care too much about.
Good luck with all that Tech
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.29 16:44:00 -
[1325]
Originally by: Satyri Hermides Good luck with all that Tech
Thanks. For my time-horizon I don't really need luck. Even the most extreme of conservative estimates peg a 120k pu peak, so I'm very confident that my pile will see at least 120k pu. If it takes 3 months, that's fine with me, I've had my market fun for a while. On the bottom end, speculators rallied on Saturday buying up sell orders below 97k pu and last night with a 91k pu buy order floor, so even over an extended slump I'm comfortable with my 94k pu stack.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.29 17:33:00 -
[1326]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Satyri Hermides Good luck with all that Tech
Thanks. For my time-horizon I don't really need luck. Even the most extreme of conservative estimates peg a 120k pu peak, so I'm very confident that my pile will see at least 120k pu. If it takes 3 months, that's fine with me, I've had my market fun for a while. On the bottom end, speculators rallied on Saturday buying up sell orders below 97k pu and last night with a 91k pu buy order floor, so even over an extended slump I'm comfortable with my 94k pu stack.
On a semi-unrelated note. I am very interested to see how the buff to T3 is going to effect the price of Tech after the decimation of T2 demand. Interesting times ahead.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.29 17:43:00 -
[1327]
Originally by: Satyri Hermides On a semi-unrelated note. I am very interested to see how the buff to T3 is going to effect the price of Tech after the decimation of T2 demand. Interesting times ahead.
Yes, because the t3 buff also includes the introduction of t3 battleships, frigates, destroyers, mods, and ammo, thereby making all t2 production basically obsolete...
You are absolutely awful at this. I'm getting second-hand embarrassment for you.
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Satyri Hermides
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Posted - 2011.03.29 18:35:00 -
[1328]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Satyri Hermides On a semi-unrelated note. I am very interested to see how the buff to T3 is going to effect the price of Tech after the decimation of T2 demand. Interesting times ahead.
Yes, because the t3 buff also includes the introduction of t3 battleships, frigates, destroyers, mods, and ammo, thereby making all t2 production basically obsolete...
You are absolutely awful at this. I'm getting second-hand embarrassment for you.
Well at current T3 is already better at many ship classes in their given niche. Tengu is better than the Raven basic, All T3 is better than their Command Ship equivalents. T3 makes for better scan platforms and are some of the very few solo plex ships out there. T3 is stronger than Hacs in many cases, in others T3 will offer recon style options to a HAC like platform. And a new ship hull for T3 is being introduced so yes, it is easily a replacement for T2 ships.
The downside of the T3 ships is going to be removed as it has been said the skill point loss penalty is going to be removed.
Any decrease in demand for Technetium is going to have a profound influence on the market. To think otherwise is bad economics. You seriously like the tactic of immature name calling instead of using sound arguments. Name calling never won anybody a debate, so grow up.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.29 19:42:00 -
[1329]
Originally by: Satyri Hermides it is easily a replacement for T2 ships.
Cruisers.
Originally by: Satyri Hermides Any decrease in demand for Technetium is going to have a profound influence on the market. To think otherwise is bad economics.
And you wonder why I mock you...
If you keep posting terrible and stupid ****, I'll keep calling you terrible and stupid.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.03.29 20:16:00 -
[1330]
Originally by: Satyri Hermides WTF!
Where did you crawl from? T3's are crap at their version of the T2 alternative.
Cure, Pilgrim > Legion Ishtar > Any version of a drone Prot Rapier has more range than a web Loki (although Loki has ace buffer, it can be slow) Vagabond > Loki as it costs over 60% less and is faster! T3 Command ships = gimpfits that are only usefull at a deep safe
Tengu is good for PvE when you're too lazy to train a Golem/Mach/Nightmare
Bah, i'm done.
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.03.30 07:05:00 -
[1331]
Originally by: Satyri Hermides
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Satyri Hermides On a semi-unrelated note. I am very interested to see how the buff to T3 is going to effect the price of Tech after the decimation of T2 demand. Interesting times ahead.
Yes, because the t3 buff also includes the introduction of t3 battleships, frigates, destroyers, mods, and ammo, thereby making all t2 production basically obsolete...
You are absolutely awful at this. I'm getting second-hand embarrassment for you.
Well at current T3 is already better at many ship classes in their given niche. Tengu is better than the Raven basic, All T3 is better than their Command Ship equivalents. T3 makes for better scan platforms and are some of the very few solo plex ships out there. T3 is stronger than Hacs in many cases, in others T3 will offer recon style options to a HAC like platform. And a new ship hull for T3 is being introduced so yes, it is easily a replacement for T2 ships.
The downside of the T3 ships is going to be removed as it has been said the skill point loss penalty is going to be removed.
Any decrease in demand for Technetium is going to have a profound influence on the market. To think otherwise is bad economics. You seriously like the tactic of immature name calling instead of using sound arguments. Name calling never won anybody a debate, so grow up.
t3's are good, but at specific things. no way a tengu is better than a raven on all fronts. A torp raven puts out 1300 dps, a tengu has a hard time going over 700. as mentioned above, lot of t2 ships are better at the role. commandships (the ones with link bonus) have better tanks while runnning 3 or more links. scanning with a t3 is just stupid, aligintime is too long + locktime is too long too! Tried it for half a year, now im back in my buzzard just works better and if there is a camp you ony lose 100mil and not 700+(and i live in a wh, scan every day)
so t3's better than all t2, is just bull**** also t2 mods?? t2 frigs??
you fail and tech will prevail
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.03.31 12:43:00 -
[1332]
I think this coming weekend will be informative concerning tech's long-term price trajectory. We have a nice natural barrier of > 400k units at 106k pu, which is in the rpice range that current stockpilers are comfortable holding. We've had two failed run-up attempts to hit 120k pu, so I don't think we'll see another attempt. Therefore, we should get a good picture of what regular industrial supply and demand is at >100k pu. Both advanced mats and plat tech are holding their high prices despite a supply glut (especially of plat tech).
My gut says we'll see a stability point here, maybe reaching into 108k-110k pu if demand is unusually high. However, I have a tendency to underestimate the upward momentum of the tech price, so I could be very wrong. If we see a big rally and significant price rise by the end of the weekend, then I'll take it as a clear signal that we are just getting started and tech will soon hit its next psychological barrier at 120-125k pu.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.02 03:03:00 -
[1333]
1m units of tech at <106k pu, 700k units of plat tech at <57k pu. The price isn't going anywhere but down. I'm looking forward to seeing the volumes traded over the weekend, but any hope of a big rally is dashed. Time to buckle down for another long wait.
Prime time to crash and scoop if anyone is interested and has the time/funds.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.04.02 06:23:00 -
[1334]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar 1m units of tech at <106k pu, 700k units of plat tech at <57k pu. The price isn't going anywhere but down. I'm looking forward to seeing the volumes traded over the weekend, but any hope of a big rally is dashed. Time to buckle down for another long wait.
Prime time to crash and scoop if anyone is interested and has the time/funds.
Heh, you're worse than me! Keep it up tho, it's amusing.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.02 12:50:00 -
[1335]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
Originally by: Elise DarkStar 1m units of tech at <106k pu, 700k units of plat tech at <57k pu. The price isn't going anywhere but down. I'm looking forward to seeing the volumes traded over the weekend, but any hope of a big rally is dashed. Time to buckle down for another long wait.
Prime time to crash and scoop if anyone is interested and has the time/funds.
Heh, you're worse than me! Keep it up tho, it's amusing.
Except I'm describing things that are actually happening within a consistent framework of expectations, and making measured, reasonable projections and observations. By "isn't going anywhere but down", I'm saying if it goes anywhere, it will be down. It will still remain between the predicted bracket of 100k-105k pu. And it is an excellent time to crash and scoop with a recent price rise, thin buy orders, and a ton of stock on the low end of the sell orders.
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Celia Therone
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Posted - 2011.04.06 06:06:00 -
[1336]
Originally by: Wabs
a tengu has a hard time going over 700.
No, it really doesn't.
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Bad Bobby
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2011.04.06 08:46:00 -
[1337]
Originally by: Herman Klaus T3's are crap at their version of the T2 alternative.
I don't think T3 was ever intended to replace T2 it's just there to give us more choices and more variety. In that I think they've been highly successful.
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DeliaPrescot
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Posted - 2011.04.06 15:32:00 -
[1338]
Edited by: DeliaPrescot on 06/04/2011 15:33:08 Edited by: DeliaPrescot on 06/04/2011 15:32:18 Just a quick comment on T3. E.g. compare the Absolution vs Legion
PvP Absolution about 320m including Fit PvP Legion about 700m including Fit (no real fancy stuff, just Deadspace Tank and Faction Heat Sinks)
I won¦t go into details but the Legion is worth every dime and in every aspect far superior. The Legion has a better tank, better Resi, better DPS, more range, more speed. You name you get it with the Legion. T3 especially the Legion is the ultimative Fleet ship in an armor RR Fleet with Logis in any small or medium size fleet of 5 to 50. It is no ship for the zerospace blob warfare simply because it is too expansive for that kind of warfare apart from being a Fleet booster.
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.04.06 17:42:00 -
[1339]
SELL!
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.07 15:14:00 -
[1340]
Fullerides and Nanos are both about to jump unless some large supply is brought to market, so we'll soon get to see what the t2 market looks like with 100k+ pu technetium.
If Akita is correct and the volumes don't decrease significantly, then the last issue in the drama becomes estimating the existing current stockpiles and when we think people will cash in. I'd love to hear some informed opinions on this, as I'm working with complete guesswork here.
Based on my observations of little comments by holders and those who know/do business with them and the amount that I think has come off the market as speculation stockpiling over the 80k pu-100k pu rise (think serj darek with 2m units in one day :P), I'd estimate an absolute minimum of 20m units purposefully stockpiled, and my maximum would reach somewhere around 60m.
I do find it interesting that the econ guy said no one was stockpiling it. I wonder what he considers "stockpiling"? 5m units? 10m units? I do find some comfort knowing that someone isn't sitting on 50m units ready to just **** everyone, but beyond that I'm not sure at all how to interpret his statement.
Finally, I'd like to hear opinions on when you think the holders will sell their stockpiles. My instinct is that if they haven't sold by now, then time isn't really a factor, and they are instead waiting for a specific price. I think we'll see a LOT come onto the market at 120k-125k pu, but I think the majority are holding for 150k pu. However, I tend towards bearish on tech long term, so maybe I'm underestimating the amount of people that think it will go 200k+.
My tech thoughts for the day.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.04.10 01:13:00 -
[1341]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I think we'll see a LOT come onto the market at 120k-125k pu, but I think the majority are holding for 150k pu. However, I tend towards bearish on tech long term, so maybe I'm underestimating the amount of people that think it will go 200k+.
You also have to consider "the fear of nerf". Some might prefer an almost guaranteed decent buck in the near future over a risky big profit much later. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.04.10 14:10:00 -
[1342]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I'd estimate an absolute minimum of 20m units purposefully stockpiled, and my maximum would reach somewhere around 60m.
I think this is vastly underestimated. We know for a fact that some people sit on several millions of units. Say 4m for a top guy (could be 2m doesn't matter).
Assume your figure of 20M units
Don't you think the dear Dr. G would have spotted a 20% stack (or even 10% @2m units) I do give him that much credit
Not to mention theres more than one person out there with that kind of stack for sure (the vast majority don't post here after all)
Not to mention the vast horde of people with smaller, in and of them self insignificant, stacks.
It all adds up.
So my estimate would be at least an order of magnitude higher than your proposed numbers - At least.
And even then, I would consider a (then) 2% stack as noticeable - whether Dr G. would classify that as stockpiling I don't know. I would.
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Finally, I'd like to hear opinions on when you think the holders will sell their stockpiles. My instinct is that if they haven't sold by now, then time isn't really a factor, and they are instead waiting for a specific price.
Yes to the first, no the the latter.
Consider this : Those with enough smarts to have amazed tens and hundreds of billions of ISK - Are very unlikely to have dumped *all* of it into one item (techn)
Also, most of them are probably not desperate for cash.
As such, true - Time is not a factor. But waiting for a specific price - Why? As long as it goes up, why not keep riding it (if you don't have the *need* to turn it over)
Once (long time from now imo) some sort of equilibrium is reached, might be the time they cash out (and invest in something else that can then make ISK).
So the market is the decider for when they'll cash out - Not a set price.
At least... That's how I'm playing it
Akita T obviously does it differently
BIG Lottery |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.10 16:08:00 -
[1343]
Thanks for the great response, Torn.
I guess my estimates were probably just wishful thinking, and maybe it is more like 60m is the absolute minimum. That does ring truer in my gut, for what that's worth. Your interpretation of eyog's (sp?) comment is interesting, though I personally wouldn't think his comment was based on even that minor level of analysis on his part.
What I mean by having a "cashout price", is that a large determinant of when that stability point is reached, is when stockpilers think we've reached it. The longterm stability will be when a balance between stockpile depletion and daily shortage is met. However, if there are that many units out there and everyone keeps waiting for a stable point, then the market will eventually see a big downturn when the price stops. I think you're right in that the largest determinant will be from observing how the price moves naturally, but I think expectations have a role to play.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.04.10 20:50:00 -
[1344]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar the market will eventually see a big downturn when the price stops.
Totally agreed - I think I called it "Hyper-Implosion" (as opposed to just the regular price implosions) elsewhere.
When it hits, there's a decent (but not 100%) chance that it will hit *hard*.
BIG Lottery |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.13 21:28:00 -
[1345]
Tech is set for another 10% bounce in a week or so unless some big speculation money moves it up before that.
Short: sell
Medium: buy
Long: buy
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.04.16 09:19:00 -
[1346]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Tech is set for another 10% bounce in a week or so unless some big speculation money moves it up before that.
Short: sell
Medium: buy
Long: buy
I still feel people are frightened to buy in at 100k. It's clear that there isn't going to be any negative change from CCP. So as with most other items in Eve if it's still profitable (some reactions can make 15-20k profit) then it's still got room to increase in value.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.04.17 06:50:00 -
[1347]
Originally by: Herman Klaus It's clear that there isn't going to be any negative change from CCP.
Not very soon, but give it half a year with tech reaching even more ludicrous prices (up to almost the old dyspro/prom levels) and they might just get their asses in gear... Plus, "The Mittani" seems somewhat interested in the issue regarding "nerfing" it (in spite of his acknowledged control over quite a few of them, 44 if memory serves right), and he did kinda' whip CSM6 into shape better than any other previous CSMs, so I wouldn't exclude the possibility of this issue being resolved with slightly less than the usual CCP "wait a few years more after it's bad" pace. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.22 04:51:00 -
[1348]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Tech is set for another 10% bounce in a week or so unless some big speculation money moves it up before that.
Short: sell
Medium: buy
Long: buy
And the 10% bounce has arrived. Regular demand has been extremely strong and have held prices despite tech moon holders bringing tons of raw stock to market to fund the current great war. The advanced mats and plat tech have been holding their high prices as well, so I think we're safely into the climb to 120-125k pu. We'll see how the market reacts to this jump over the next few days, but if buyers accept this price jump, I think we'll see another quick rise to 120k in another week or so. I'll check back in a couple days after things have settled a bit from the price bounce, but for now:
Short: hold
Medium: buy
Long: buy
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.23 17:11:00 -
[1349]
Well the price blew right past 110k. It will slowly drop to <115k over the next week, then we'll see it push up on that 120k barrier after that.
Short: sell
Medium: buy
Long: buy
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.23 19:17:00 -
[1350]
Oh ya, I forgot about this gem.
Originally by: Satyri Hermides LOL @ the person who just dropped tens of billions of isk to buy all the sell orders from 93k to 99k...
That person is about to lose their ass in the market. Why is it so important for some people to keep the price high?
I've made 25b so far in 3 weeks for absolutely zero effort.
All hail Technetium!
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.04.23 20:30:00 -
[1351]
Yeah - It's a nice little earner ain't it
BIG Lottery |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.04.24 06:47:00 -
[1352]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Herman Klaus It's clear that there isn't going to be any negative change from CCP.
Not very soon, but give it half a year with tech reaching even more ludicrous prices (up to almost the old dyspro/prom levels) and they might just get their asses in gear... Plus, "The Mittani" seems somewhat interested in the issue regarding "nerfing" it (in spite of his acknowledged control over quite a few of them, 44 if memory serves right), and he did kinda' whip CSM6 into shape better than any other previous CSMs, so I wouldn't exclude the possibility of this issue being resolved with slightly less than the usual CCP "wait a few years more after it's bad" pace.
Could someone explain me what's wrong with this market? It's nicely trending, it's showing a third Elliot Wave behavior like most realistic markets do.
Why would you want to castrate it and make it just like thousand other flat and dead EvE markets?
Items / ships prices too high you say? Though luck. Like in RL. Go war those who hold the "diamonds mines". Like EvE is meant to be.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Dhaaran
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Posted - 2011.04.24 12:29:00 -
[1353]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Herman Klaus It's clear that there isn't going to be any negative change from CCP.
Not very soon, but give it half a year with tech reaching even more ludicrous prices (up to almost the old dyspro/prom levels) and they might just get their asses in gear... Plus, "The Mittani" seems somewhat interested in the issue regarding "nerfing" it (in spite of his acknowledged control over quite a few of them, 44 if memory serves right), and he did kinda' whip CSM6 into shape better than any other previous CSMs, so I wouldn't exclude the possibility of this issue being resolved with slightly less than the usual CCP "wait a few years more after it's bad" pace.
Could someone explain me what's wrong with this market? It's nicely trending, it's showing a third Elliot Wave behavior like most realistic markets do.
Why would you want to castrate it and make it just like thousand other flat and dead EvE markets?
Items / ships prices too high you say? Though luck. Like in RL. Go war those who hold the "diamonds mines". Like EvE is meant to be.
Something to keep in mind here - we ARE talking about a video game, so there is always a design perspective, not only a market perspective. Even though it is perfectly fine from a market perspective just like nocxium, it might demand change from a design perspective - which it does imho. Your current stance would also prohibit any and all balance changes as far as ships/weapons go, yet they have happened in the past. same goes for moon go obviously - there was a time when tech was not very desireable, yet here we are with tech being gold - due to design decisions. so it will happen again. the question is just: when?
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.04.24 14:40:00 -
[1354]
Originally by: Dhaaran stuff
I read somewhere that after 120k Tech stops being profitable to use in reactions. I dunno if this is true or not. If it is then surely we'd need to see a bump in T2 prices before Tech can comfortably break 120k.
Don't i just wish all the Tech i sold at 50k i'd of kept!
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mental maverick
Percussive Diplomacy
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Posted - 2011.04.24 15:09:00 -
[1355]
Originally by: Herman Klaus
I read somewhere that after 120k Tech stops being profitable to use in reactions. I dunno if this is true or not. If it is then surely we'd need to see a bump in T2 prices before Tech can comfortably break 120k.
Don't i just wish all the Tech i sold at 50k i'd of kept!
[:(
You have to consider the timelag between buying the Tech, reacting it, making t2 components out of the reactions and finally building the t2 ship. Tech is what is setting the prices on all the steps up to the final product rather than the opposite since demand for Tech seems to be bigger than the supply atm. Hence a bump in Tech price will most likely be followed by a bump in reaction and product prices.
I might be wrong here but thats the feeling i get from having traded Tech and Tech-related reactions for the past months.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.04.25 00:08:00 -
[1356]
Originally by: Dhaaran
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Herman Klaus It's clear that there isn't going to be any negative change from CCP.
Not very soon, but give it half a year with tech reaching even more ludicrous prices (up to almost the old dyspro/prom levels) and they might just get their asses in gear... Plus, "The Mittani" seems somewhat interested in the issue regarding "nerfing" it (in spite of his acknowledged control over quite a few of them, 44 if memory serves right), and he did kinda' whip CSM6 into shape better than any other previous CSMs, so I wouldn't exclude the possibility of this issue being resolved with slightly less than the usual CCP "wait a few years more after it's bad" pace.
Could someone explain me what's wrong with this market? It's nicely trending, it's showing a third Elliot Wave behavior like most realistic markets do.
Why would you want to castrate it and make it just like thousand other flat and dead EvE markets?
Items / ships prices too high you say? Though luck. Like in RL. Go war those who hold the "diamonds mines". Like EvE is meant to be.
Something to keep in mind here - we ARE talking about a video game, so there is always a design perspective, not only a market perspective. Even though it is perfectly fine from a market perspective just like nocxium, it might demand change from a design perspective - which it does imho. Your current stance would also prohibit any and all balance changes as far as ships/weapons go, yet they have happened in the past. same goes for moon go obviously - there was a time when tech was not very desireable, yet here we are with tech being gold - due to design decisions. so it will happen again. the question is just: when?
Nope, a nano win ship was not a market thing, it was just ill conceived. The only real change that would have been needed for Technetium imho was to shuffle the moons around in a more equally distributed way.
The bottleneck? Dr Eyjo rigthly said that once you remove one, you will find the next. It's the sort of typical never ending fight where you see CCP increasing maximum sustainable blob sizes and FCs bringing in more blob to crash the server.
Fixed Technetium scarcity, the next scarce element will take its place.
The current level is just fine, T1 ships have realistic prices, T2 ships look fine and mods don't seem to be overly expensive.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.04.25 01:46:00 -
[1357]
You may not be able to eliminate all bottlenecks, but you sure as hell can almost perfectly balance several smaller bottlenecks, OR you can make one of the more common minerals the main bottleneck instead.
The main reason why Technetium is worse than Dyspro/Prom is the fact that the regional distribution is horribly unbalanced compared to the other two had, so a power bloc can easily dominate a very large number of them (see : the NC).
In CCP's own words, they don't like PASSIVE revenue sources (that only need to be guarded as opposed to constantly exploited) because of the positive feedback effect on blobbing : the more valuable such a passively exploited resource is, the more incentive there is to blob heavily to defend it, and the fact you do get more revenue out of it makes that blobbing also increasingly easy to attain from an economic standpoint. If you get both ability and motivation, increased blobbing (EVEN IF defense of that resource is almost never necessary) is almost guaranteed, since you use blobbing in anything else (to "prove a point" or "show your power") as a deterrent against those that might even thing about taking it over. The longer such resources remain in the hands of a single power bloc (and the higher their individual value), the more likely that power bloc is to uberblob and basically dominate mostly unchallenged since, hey, who's crazy enough to fight the guys that have supercap replacement programs in place and even give out supercaps to loyal pilots like candy ?
Not that the NC might already do that (I don't know, do they ? probably not yet), just saying, any hypothetical power bloc that remains in power for too long on a resource way too valuable they don't even need to work much to maintain a steady stream of revenue from will eventually end up similar to that. Your only hopes are for such a powerbloc to failcascade (why would it, though, since they would attract more talent, which combined with numbers makes it increasingly unlikely to fail hard enough to start the avalanche) or to have a big and nasty internal split (which is the much more likely scenario, but it could take a long while).
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts |
Fiat Money
The Privy Council Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.04.25 17:02:00 -
[1358]
CCP doesn't like PASSIVE revenue sources, but on the other hand with the latest anomaly changes (see http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=883) they revealed there intention to shift null sec back into a space of conflicts. And conflicts are made by imbalances such as Tech distribution. Current DRF invasion is driven by both anomaly changes (less valuable space) and rising tech prices. As tech moons are changing hands constantly in Vale / Geminate within the conflict supply is kind of shrinked. So from my POV Tech / Nanos / Fullerides will keep their uptrend.
As for the Supercap statements: Yes some NC alliances do Supercapital SRP to support their use for alliance combat purposes and to compensate bounces in private wallets. Tech helps a lot but isn't the main source for building supers. Private wallet plays a much more important role here.
And the NC isn't a unbeatable god as you are highlighting, but just humans as you and me, driven by morale in combat. Current conflict situation is ofc challenging, but not severe.
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Amarr Citizen 155
Nordar Innovations.
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Posted - 2011.04.25 17:12:00 -
[1359]
Originally by: Fiat Money CCP doesn't like PASSIVE revenue sources, but on the other hand with the latest anomaly changes (see http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=883) they revealed there intention to shift null sec back into a space of conflicts. And conflicts are made by imbalances such as Tech distribution. Current DRF invasion is driven by both anomaly changes (less valuable space) and rising tech prices. As tech moons are changing hands constantly in Vale / Geminate within the conflict supply is kind of shrinked. So from my POV Tech / Nanos / Fullerides will keep their uptrend.
As for the Supercap statements: Yes some NC alliances do Supercapital SRP to support their use for alliance combat purposes and to compensate bounces in private wallets. Tech helps a lot but isn't the main source for building supers. Private wallet plays a much more important role here.
And the NC isn't a unbeatable god as you are highlighting, but just humans as you and me, driven by morale in combat. Current conflict situation is ofc challenging, but not severe.
fixed link
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Jack Coutu
Gallente Percussive Diplomacy
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Posted - 2011.04.27 19:03:00 -
[1360]
Originally by: Fiat Money
And the NC isn't a unbeatable god as you are highlighting, but just humans as you and me, driven by a massive isk faucet that provides a nearly endless flow of supercaps, support caps and dreads in combat. Current conflict situation is ofc challenging, but not severe.
Fixed that for you.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.04.28 00:46:00 -
[1361]
Originally by: Jack Coutu
Originally by: Fiat Money And the NC isn't a unbeatable god as you are highlighting, but just humans as you and me, driven by a massive isk faucet that provides a nearly endless flow of supercaps, support caps and dreads in combat. Current conflict situation is ofc challenging, but not severe.
Fixed that for you.
Except that it's not an ISK faucet, it's a resource faucet, which can be exchanged for massive amounts of ISK. Not that it matters much, just correcting a slight error. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts |
Marshiro
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Posted - 2011.04.28 02:14:00 -
[1362]
Why can't we just have items that uses only one or a few types of moon materials? Then the markets would balance itself with some demand on everything. If we are talking about bottlenecks killing the value of some items, salvage and many T3 materials is the worst.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.28 15:11:00 -
[1363]
Well I was about to write about how voracious demand for t2 products (aren't we supposed to be in a seasonal lull right now??) has been eating through even the elevated supply of raw tech as well as advanced mats and plat tech, and how we were likely to see tech prices pushing through 120-125k within a week. However, I checked the charts just now and it seems large supplies of advanced mats have hit the market at current prices, so it seems all the recently bought tech is starting to come back in its advanced forms.
I'm on vacation for a week, but I fully expect to come back to a 115-120k market, pretty much what we've seen the past week continuing for at least another one until advanced mats start to clear, if they do. If the 120k pu stable price persists for long enough, then we might see some impatient stockpilers start to cash in at 120k and keep us locked here for a while.
TL;DR If we continue to lose this upward momentum, we will likely see a long term (>1month) stability point at 115-125k pu.
I'll check on advanced mats in a week when I get back, and we may see another change in the medium term (1 week -> 1 month) recommendation from hold to sell.
short: sell
medium: hold
long: buy
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Hello Pretty
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Posted - 2011.04.28 18:46:00 -
[1364]
What would happen if that 900k lump at 120k isk moved either up or down 10-30k or so?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.04.28 19:18:00 -
[1365]
Originally by: Hello Pretty What would happen if that 900k lump at 120k isk moved either up or down 10-30k or so?
Pretty broad question...an answer to the question as a whole: nothing much really in the grand scheme of things.
Moving it up would increase the chances of maintaining the current spike momentum, but not decidedly, while down it would depress the price maybe even as low as 110k for a short while, but in the end it would probably clear faster at a lower price and result in a faster price climb overall than if it had stayed blocking at 120k.
The tech market is just that big. 120b worth of tech being pushed around won't have much of an impact beyond a few days.
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Candy Oshea
Amarr Techfree Investment Group
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Posted - 2011.04.29 02:25:00 -
[1366]
I made a tidy 15% on this product which is pretty good for a latecomer to the moon markets. was very surprised to find my stock had been bought out in its entirety.
Very very tentative to buy in again though i must say.
Candy. ___ iCandy Bonds
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.05 13:45:00 -
[1367]
I think fullerides might still have some upward momentum left, but everything else has ground to a halt. There are about 1.2m units of tech between the lowest sell and that 1m unit stack at 20k, and more keeps coming to market to replace that which is bought off, so we will continue in this lull for at least another 2 weeks. The big issue now is if stockpilers continue to cash-in at 115-120k pu and hold the price down for a knock-on effect for other stockpilers who in turn cash in because of the extended lull. The longer the price stops, the greater the chance we get stuck at a temporary peak where large piles are cashed-in.
short: sell
medium: hold
long: buy
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Nomad III
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Posted - 2011.05.06 10:20:00 -
[1368]
Edited by: Nomad III on 06/05/2011 10:20:54 The DRF controlls Vale. Until they have full control over the north, they won't raise a cartell. I don't believe the DRF make a BFF v2.0, so long term: SELL |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.06 12:48:00 -
[1369]
Originally by: Nomad III Edited by: Nomad III on 06/05/2011 10:20:54 The DRF controlls Vale. Until they have full control over the north, they won't raise a cartell. I don't believe the DRF make a BFF v2.0, so long term: SELL
Good contribution, bro.
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.05.08 11:03:00 -
[1370]
1mil units of tech at 120k pulled for long term collateral use. Yea laugh it up eve tax man. Just sayinà Speculators go go.
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.05.08 12:10:00 -
[1371]
Look at em go sell: 118k buy: 114k.
... I should try harder
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.08 13:02:00 -
[1372]
Rofl, well that changes things a little. We were already eating through 115k pu at an accelerated clip, but losing 1m units sure makes things even faster.
Buy across the board, up to at least 125k within the week.
Then we'll see if someone else feels like dropping a huge stack. There's nothing stopping the price now but people cashing in as we hit each psychological barrier.
While you made the right decision, as a holder I'm disappointed that we're going to see that stack again at a higher sell price.
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.05.08 14:05:00 -
[1373]
Stack wont hit the mkt again anytime soon (6 months min)... man ccp better not mess with tech in that time
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Fiat Money
The Privy Council Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.05.08 18:55:00 -
[1374]
Originally by: Nomad III Edited by: Nomad III on 06/05/2011 10:20:54 The DRF controlls Vale. Until they have full control over the north, they won't raise a cartell. I don't believe the DRF make a BFF v2.0, so long term: SELL
NC didn't establish a cartell either.
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Kesper North
Caldari Gentlemen of Means Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.05.09 08:34:00 -
[1375]
Haha! How little you know.
We tried, during my administration of Majesta.
And you know what happened? Prices went above our target price, and we stopped bothering. -- Killed me? Read about it in my blog! Northern Lights: Solo PVP in EVE Online
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.05.09 14:37:00 -
[1376]
We're gona need more tinfoil now.
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Fiat Money
The Privy Council Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.05.09 15:09:00 -
[1377]
Originally by: Kesper North Haha! How little you know.
We tried, during my administration of Majesta.
And you know what happened? Prices went above our target price, and we stopped bothering.
Yeah, I know ... I would emphasize the word "tried". For how long was it ... 2 - 3 month? I'm becoming old...
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.05.10 17:02:00 -
[1378]
Edited by: Herman Klaus on 10/05/2011 17:02:49 Just dropped in to check how things are since i released the last of my stock. This is insane. S: 129k B: 121k. The owners of the Tech moons must be making so much ISK it's insane.
WTB time machine to go back to Sept 2010 please
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.10 18:25:00 -
[1379]
http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=908
Might be some action on the moon mineral rebalnce/fix front this winter.
"Long term:
WeÆre currently looking into a long term plan for 0.0. I say long term, not because itÆs planned for 2014, but because the work will begin this winter and hopefully go on for a while."
"WeÆll have several sessions with them and hopefully they will be able to contribute to our goal. To give you a quick peek at the type of topics weÆre looking at when doing this evaluation (in no particular order): Are there enough incentives for conflict/pvp outside sov?"
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.05.10 19:01:00 -
[1380]
2014? jesus christ
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.10 19:06:00 -
[1381]
Originally by: Ludacrys 2014? jesus christ
You misread.
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.05.10 19:45:00 -
[1382]
yeah i noticed,, on an unrelated note, why are nanotransistors on a 2 month low even tho tech keeps rising?
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.05.10 20:54:00 -
[1383]
er wut ccp?
So i pull my stack and lock it up and now they start looking at ****ing about? like 2 days later ?
any guess at how long tech might remain safe?
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics K162
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Posted - 2011.05.10 21:17:00 -
[1384]
Anyone sitting on a huge gigantic pile had to be aware of the chance of an adjustment. Looks like they'll get lucky tho that nothing will happen until December. It very easily could have happened out of the blue this summer.
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.05.10 21:49:00 -
[1385]
Why do you people listen to Elise? She has said multiple times over in this long thread that she will do what she can to push the price down so she can buy anew and sell and make more isk. Someone bought her speech as someone just dropped a 1.6 million unit order. Getting bought up quick too. Lame.
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Khanid Voltar
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Posted - 2011.05.10 21:53:00 -
[1386]
All Elise did was repost part of the latest dev blog...
I'm not quite sure what the issue is?
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.05.10 21:54:00 -
[1387]
no no was me ..little drunk only ment to sell a little to cover some bonds and stuffs im commited to.
Its coming down in like 2 mins 30 sec
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:01:00 -
[1388]
Originally by: Khanid Voltar All Elise did was repost part of the latest dev blog...
I'm not quite sure what the issue is?
Apparently you have not read or kept tabs on this thread until recently, but this is a typical approach used in the past to get tech to slump for quick purchase or cause the trend to stagnate. The last attempt like this was around conversations leading up to fanfest. Read back before defending...
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Khanid Voltar
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:08:00 -
[1389]
Originally by: Clambumper June
Originally by: Khanid Voltar All Elise did was repost part of the latest dev blog...
I'm not quite sure what the issue is?
Apparently you have not read or kept tabs on this thread until recently, but this is a typical approach used in the past to get tech to slump for quick purchase or cause the trend to stagnate. The last attempt like this was around conversations leading up to fanfest. Read back before defending...
My point is that irrelevant of what Elise may or may not have said in the past, the post she made is correct.
CCP are planning to do something about 0.0 this winter. That's all her post (and the dev blog she linked) said.
Suggest you read the dev blog before attacking
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:15:00 -
[1390]
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 10/05/2011 22:16:27 lol
If anything this is good news in that we no how long it's safe for.
Edit: and it's safe for a long time. people aren't going to stop buying t2 products in the hope of a moon min rebalance rofl
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:16:00 -
[1391]
Originally by: Khanid Voltar
Originally by: Clambumper June
Originally by: Khanid Voltar All Elise did was repost part of the latest dev blog...
I'm not quite sure what the issue is?
Apparently you have not read or kept tabs on this thread until recently, but this is a typical approach used in the past to get tech to slump for quick purchase or cause the trend to stagnate. The last attempt like this was around conversations leading up to fanfest. Read back before defending...
My point is that irrelevant of what Elise may or may not have said in the past, the post she made is correct.
CCP are planning to do something about 0.0 this winter. That's all her post (and the dev blog she linked) said.
Suggest you read the dev blog before attacking
WOW for someone who goes back to 2006 you are clearly void of any real individual thought. CCP has since the beginning of EVE been cryptic in what they will and will not do. Reading in to something in a DEV BLOG and making statements like Elise made is something that she previously used before fanfest to get the price to drop where she again admitted to trying to get the price down so she could by more and sell when it went back up. Have you read back in this thread about 10 pages or do you just throw around contempt that someone openly state someone has pulled this ploy before and that CCP does have the intentions of fixing something that is not really broken. Wait strike that CCP constantly fixes things that are not broken only to make them broken. Can I get a patch for that?
/finger
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:19:00 -
[1392]
lol please quote the post where I used fansfest to scare people. i specifically said i didn't think it mattered.
The only manipulation I've done was using actual sell orders to pull the price down. What I say in here is for the benefit of the 12 or so people who even bother to read it, whether they agree or not. You can;t manipulate the tech price from the md forum.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:44:00 -
[1393]
Originally by: Khanid Voltar CCP are planning to do something about 0.0 this winter. That's all her post (and the dev blog she linked) said.
The devblog says in pretty clear words that they are looking for more ways of conflict/pvp than just the sov-system. Sources of high income are most certainly one way to fuel conflicts. |
Fiat Money
The Privy Council Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:55:00 -
[1394]
Originally by: Gnulpie
Originally by: Khanid Voltar CCP are planning to do something about 0.0 this winter. That's all her post (and the dev blog she linked) said.
The devblog says in pretty clear words that they are looking for more ways of conflict/pvp than just the sov-system. Sources of high income are most certainly one way to fuel conflicts.
That's the point. I also don't see any indication for Tech nerv in the blog statement.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.10 22:58:00 -
[1395]
My interpretation is that the topic will definitely come up. Whether the discussion leads to a tech nerf is a completely different matter. The key point is that now we have a time line before which the topic won;t even be considered, since if it will be discussed, it will be discussed as part of this process.
A lot of very nervous tech holders...I'll be more careful to introduce information next time before I post it.
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Fiat Money
The Privy Council Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.05.10 23:59:00 -
[1396]
Edited by: Fiat Money on 11/05/2011 00:00:09 Ah, I see. It really will be a big topic...
Originally by: CCP Soundwave
Originally by: Liang Nuren
Originally by: CCP Soundwave No disagreement. Better resource distribution, more pvp goals etc.
Does this mean that you might take a look at current moon goo locations and/or T2 production pipelines?
-Liang
Yes, those are most definately prime candidates. Things like trit and datacore supplies, production slots etc.
source: Linkage
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.05.11 00:34:00 -
[1397]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Crash incoming.
Stop trying to make yourself feel better about cashing out at 75k
I was lying :P, as part of an effort to push the price down and scoop some more. I did, however, just cash out at 100k pu because the market is way too frothy to justify 100k+ pu.
It was Serj Darek who bought all my 648k units; not sure if he bought Akita's 500k too.
So this doesn't relate to fanfest perhaps that was someone else, but I do recall you jumping on that bandwagon when the parade was running. In either case here is the point I was trying to make earlier. You admit to trying to crash prices in an attempt to buy low sell high. At the expense of any credibility you may have had. As far as the DEV BLOG it mentions changes to cause more PVP Fiat took it step further by linking for you where they talk about changing moon goo locations. That in no way implies that it will reduce the amount of tech flowing to market or the quantity of moons available. In light you are again attempting to crash the market to get a quick buy or a boosted sale. I'm sure you got your hands on some of the 1.6 million unit order that caused several orders being put up 7K per unit under the current sell orders. Congrats on another manipulation.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.11 00:56:00 -
[1398]
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 11/05/2011 00:57:07 You give me far too much credit.
Regardless, anyone is free to read what I've posted and interpret it for themselves. I'm not claiming any inside information or specialized understanding of what CCP will do, so my personal opinion of what I posted is just that:an opinion. I'm just sharing information to elicit quality responses and perhaps more information that I would not find myself. You know, like a discussion?
Feel free to suspect some ulterior manipulative motive in everything I do though based on one ineffectual lie, it's flattering.
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.05.11 03:13:00 -
[1399]
I'm simply pointing out that when the prices is in a steep climb and you have sold all your tech you post to get some numb skull to put a nice chunk up in fear that the world is soon going to end. Then some boner does exactly that and stacks a nice chip on the market, others follow suit and drop orders at low prices to get rid of their goods before the market completely tanks. You swoop in clean up the nice low orders repeal your quote as some obnoxious mistake on your part and then put your sell order back on as soon as the price starts to climb. Call it what it is a manipulation tactic pointed at the poor stupid idiots who can't make a decision on their own but look to the forums for a quick tip from someone who will take advantage of their lack of fortitude. MARKET PVP, my issue with your tactic is it stops the climb and makes us wait for the next gust to start the climb again. QUIT SLOWING THE MOMENTUM. Place buy orders buy low sell orders and wait. Instead of making everyone wait.
P.S. Those reading this thread should at this point start to stop trusting everything you read in the forums. BTW Cosmo was a scammer. Enough said...
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.11 06:33:00 -
[1400]
Originally by: Tanaka Kharn er wut ccp? So i pull my stack and lock it up and now they start looking at ****ing about? like 2 days later ? any guess at how long tech might remain safe?
Depends. Strictly technically speaking, it is very likely we'll live another half year minimum before anything changes, if not longer. However, if CCP announces some future changes which are guaranteed to actually reduce tech value (as opposed to some harebrained ideas that are "intended" to reduce its value but will actually make it even more valuable because they can't do math), then the market could take a dive long before the changes are actually implemented. So... anything between a couple of weeks and a couple of years is possible.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Tutskii
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Posted - 2011.05.11 07:35:00 -
[1401]
Edited by: Tutskii on 11/05/2011 07:35:13 Interesting train of thought but I'd like to point out that the recent rebalance changes have been made with very little warning.
I am not sure that the statement is a promise that things with tech will be frozen till Dec, but rather than their nullsec rebalance won't be done till then (at the earliest, perhaps).
I expect that a "we are fixing technetium" announcement would come in the form of a blog with maybe a week or two notice prior to sweeping changes. Perhaps one starting with something akin to "We have been tracking the Technetium situation and are not happy about it, next week we are doing this".
As for Elise's comments and whether Tech stops or not.. well, Elise's commentary is not gospel and anyone is free to ignore. I am not sure that Elise has the power to determine where such an item will stop, and am even less sure that super high tech is in the interest of anyone (other than huge stackholders). But even them may not be happy if there is a price threshold past which CCP moves in.
Nonetheless, if Elise truly has the power to make things like these go down.. well Elise would you mind commenting on plex?
Fly me to the moon and let me play amongst the stars.. let me see what spring is like on Jupiter and Mars.. |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.05.11 07:42:00 -
[1402]
Funny, people are pulling their sell orders off the market.
Only something like 1m tech left on the market for sale.
Probably someone will swoop that up too or dump a large amount onto the market. Interesting times! |
Khanid Voltar
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Posted - 2011.05.11 09:27:00 -
[1403]
Edited by: Khanid Voltar on 11/05/2011 09:30:28 deleted, I was clearly trolled
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.11 12:04:00 -
[1404]
Ya, i didn't even read the last little sperglord post... I've moved on. If people want to believe that I'm some evil manipulative genius puppetmaster, please go right right ahead. I already have a few exgfs who would agree, so I'm used to the accusations and resentment.
Back on topic. I think every relevant point has been more or less covered by myself and the others who have chimed in, though of course please contribute if you have an opinion or more info.
There is just one point I raised yet perhaps not clearly enough, and it reflects on a point akita made: even if they announce a nerf, there may still be more than enough time for everyone to get out before it hits. IF you believe we are at the current point because of natural market forces, then that shortfall in daily supply will still exist right up until the point that they actually change the mechanics.
What I think this news will do is dampen some of the more astronomical price projections over the next 6 months, as stockholders just won't wait until it's that high to cash in. I had no intention of holding until the mythical 200-250k pu, though I'm sure many did. I think less people will feel comfortable that they can wait to see if it gets that high now.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.11 12:57:00 -
[1405]
Oh ya, in other related news. It's my opinion that we're in the final stretch for the price rise and everything now depends on when big holders decide to cash in. The price jumped 10% and the extra stock brought to market is barely a day's worth. People are buying even more t2 as the price goes up, so obviously general demand is up due to demographics/activity, and they don't give a **** how much it costs (so far).
How high do t2 products need to go before demand falls enough that the daily output of tech meets the daily supply? I have no idea.
How high will it go before the big holders cash in their stacks? I have no idea.
We are entering uncharted waters. I hope to cash out at the peak, but I have no idea where that will be. However, I personally will definitely be erring on the side of caution and unloading before the peak if not on it.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.11 18:04:00 -
[1406]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar [...]I had no intention of holding until the mythical 200-250k pu, though I'm sure many did. I think less people will feel comfortable that they can wait to see if it gets that high now[...]It's my opinion that we're in the final stretch for the price rise and everything now depends on when big holders decide to cash in.[...]
Whoa. DTja vu. Glitch in the Matrix ?
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.05.11 18:56:00 -
[1407]
tech owns, when one of our logi guys gets a cold the market goes crazy
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.05.11 18:59:00 -
[1408]
on a related note wtb erebus bpo
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.11 19:28:00 -
[1409]
Originally by: Weaselior tech owns, when one of our logi guys gets a cold the market goes crazy
It's true. People are wound so tight that they jump at their own farts. In retrospect I should have known better, but I was honestly just taking a 5 minute break at work to post a little "here's an interesting thing; might be relevant", then I have to spend a page trying to convince people I'm not trying to crash the market and buy it all for my tech throne.
It is a valuable piece of information that some people who hold are scared ****less enough to just go nuts every time anyone even hints that the price might go down (which I wasn't even). If I had 1t+ isk, I really would crash the market and buy all their tear-spattered panic sells.
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.05.11 19:40:00 -
[1410]
Edited by: Tanaka Kharn on 11/05/2011 19:44:22 Dear god look its falling !
Trolololo
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Commander Jameson 101
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Posted - 2011.05.16 09:50:00 -
[1411]
Originally by: Weaselior on a related note wtb erebus bpo
Erebus BPO For Sale
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.05.20 12:25:00 -
[1412]
looks like its about to jump again from 115k to 130k this weekend. Or am i wrong? only a small ammount of orders between those 2 prices.
175k in 2 months
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.20 13:29:00 -
[1413]
I've been hesitant to make any analysis because it's been so chaotic lately. I think what we're seeing right now is a lot of downward pressure across the board as the supercap arms race continues in the north, and alliances are depleting any and all reserves. I also believe we're in a transition phase where there is more raw technetium because all of the primary producers who were doing reactions with freshly-mined tech (morsus mihi and majesta especially) have been replaced by people who aren't yet secure enough to invest their time and isk in direct reactions (especially the venal tech, which is still a hot zone). Therefore, we are likely to see a spike in fullerides, followed later by a spike in tech as new secondary reactions go on line.
Long story short, the downward pressure is temporary, and when it does go up, it's going to go way up.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.20 15:11:00 -
[1414]
Originally by: Wabs looks like its about to jump again from 115k to 130k this weekend. Or am i wrong? only a small ammount of orders between those 2 prices.
Still lots of stock up there, and we may continue to see big cash-ins like we have for the last week (500k, 300k, couple of 200k), so I definitely wouldn't get too excited for the weekend.
Originally by: Wabs 175k in 2 months
I think so. My guess is that in around 1-2 months we'll see a short peak to 175k-200k, followed by a long crash to 150-160k as everyone cashes in. Then those who held through the peak and crash will be able to cash in at the true peak of 225k+, wherever it is that t2 finally gets too expensive and people actually start buying other item types instead.
I'm getting nervous about moon material rebalances and anxious to get a titan and supercarrier, so I'll probably try to get out on the upcoming rise to 175kish. I'll try to get out like a week before the last spike at 160-165k pu hopefully. Then everyone with bigger balls than me can play chicken with each other and russian roulette with ccp. Too intense for my faint heart.
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.05.20 16:25:00 -
[1415]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Then everyone with bigger balls than me can play chicken with each other and russian roulette with ccp. Too intense for my faint heart.
Speaking of which...when this month is CSM6 summit actually happening?
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.20 16:39:00 -
[1416]
As we speak (type) I believe.
I did see a lot of NC and Goon tech for sale this week and they're basically running the CSM this year, maybe they know something we don't?
:tinfoil:
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Spectre Wraith
Darwin Inc.
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Posted - 2011.05.20 17:05:00 -
[1417]
Edited by: Spectre Wraith on 20/05/2011 17:12:07 Edited by: Spectre Wraith on 20/05/2011 17:11:34
Originally by: Elise DarkStar As we speak (type) I believe.
I did see a lot of NC and Goon tech for sale this week and they're basically running the CSM this year, maybe they know something we don't?
:tinfoil:
1. The NC and Goons have always been selling off Tech. Not to mention the Econ stating no significant amounts were being stockpiled.
2. CCP don't generally react mildly to NDA info being acted upon ingame (pirate cruiser incident).
3. If the value were to drastically change and they knew it, I don't think the actions being taken up north would be the same. (NC wouldn't try to defend/would move, etc)
I wouldn't really tinfoil to much over someone selling their Tech when they use it to fund the SC arms race.
E - Any major reblancing I think would come in the form of comets in any immediate timeframe. I don't think they'd rebalance the T2 inputs so soon considering the time it took them to devalue Dysp/prom. Or, maybe come out of the blue and give Thullium a kick in the pants and surprise everyone.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.20 17:09:00 -
[1418]
unless that's what they want us to think....
:tinfoil: :steel-lined bunker:
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.22 03:00:00 -
[1419]
Originally by: Spectre Wraith Any major reblancing I think would come in the form of comets in any immediate timeframe.
Two words : Technetium alchemy.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2011.05.22 07:41:00 -
[1420]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I did see a lot of NC and Goon tech for sale this week and they're basically running the CSM this year, maybe they know something we don't?
:tinfoil:
not like they are preparing for an invasion or anything...
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.05.22 14:17:00 -
[1421]
Which would make a convenient cover...
:petroleum jelly:
(quit quoting me, I was joking)
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.05.23 00:38:00 -
[1422]
I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.05.23 01:31:00 -
[1423]
Edited by: Akita T on 23/05/2011 01:33:52
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
No, the hilarious part is that allegedly they still don't know exactly why tech is doing this, according to words spoken by the economist at the latest fanfest... if you are to take what he said at face value, that is. Edit : watch from around 45:25 to around 47:30. Edited link to jump you to the start of the relevant section. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.05.23 08:29:00 -
[1424]
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
If they did, would they say so?
There's not a single reason to emasculate every single market so it becomes a zero volatility flatness of boredom.
If Dr. Eyjo fiddled with markets like some interventists would do, then EvE would become completely fake and crap.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.05.24 00:07:00 -
[1425]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
If they did, would they say so?
There's not a single reason to emasculate every single market so it becomes a zero volatility flatness of boredom.
If Dr. Eyjo fiddled with markets like some interventists would do, then EvE would become completely fake and crap.
If you were CCP, with a dedicated economist, and you said, "look, we gonna fix yo moongoo problems, spread the wealth n sh*t" and instead just ended up replacing dysp/prom with technetium which will probably end up with an even higher share of the total moongoo value than dysp/prom had and of which a vast majority of moons are in the northern region, would you say anything? Probably not.
If you're implying they knew, believed it would end this way and purposely did it anyways I'm going to bet against you. As others have pointed out in various places, 0.0 systems w/o tech are pretty unattractive right now and that's a lot of 0.0. Not what CCP wanted/wants.
Market intervention is exactly what they did when they made the changes in dec '09, they just F'ed it up, which seems hard to do when you literally have all of the relevant data to make fairly accurate predictions. Predictions Akita and others made through educated guesswork.
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slickboy Danny
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Posted - 2011.05.28 22:32:00 -
[1426]
allrighty. I¦ve waited long enough. about to unload my stock, the maximum profit per day is closing in on me. it¦s been a fun ride! aint nothin' wrong with a lil bump 'n grind... |
oniplE
MeMento.
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Posted - 2011.05.28 23:34:00 -
[1427]
Edited by: oniplE on 28/05/2011 23:34:56
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 23/05/2011 01:37:12
Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev I still wonder how they didn't know tech was going to do this. Even more confusing would be if they did. Either way, odd.
No, the hilarious part is that allegedly they still don't know exactly why tech is doing this, according to words spoken by the economist at the latest fanfest... if you are to take what he said at face value, that is, it's obvious he's trying to not say too much but also appearing quite weird in the process, and he does claim it's not hoarding. Edit : watch from around 45:25 to around 47:30. Edited link to jump you to the start of the relevant section.
He does know, he says they dont know of any other reason apart from insufficient supply, which is basically what's going on. However, I very much doubt there's no hoarding going on. Many people invested in technetium and are holding on to it, i did the same.
I do think technetium is becoming a bit of a risk, although CCP is notoriously slow in balancing stuff like this, it is only a matter of time before they step in and introduce some tweaks. When they do, those people who have been hoarding the technetium will dump it on the market. It's a fire sale waiting to happen. __________________________________________ Signature starts here |
TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.06.03 19:15:00 -
[1428]
Bit surprised we haven't had any comments here in a bit.
Market looks "interesting" atm
Should be room for at least 3 or 4 semi-sized speculation posts
BIG Lottery |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.03 21:33:00 -
[1429]
It's too crazy to even speculate. My "guess" is that we have a continued dump of any and all stocks by current and past moon holders to fund the war combined with the new holders not yet setting up the reaction chains that the old holders had going. In the long run I'm bullish, as this just means more stockpile depletion at lower prices, but I'd also personally like it to spike sooner and lower because I'd like to get out due to nerf fears, as opposed to waiting for later and higher.
If you're bullish about the possibility of a nerf, then this glut of supply is great. However, the sooner you think a nerf will happen, the worse the current situation is. I think fullerides are actually the best buy right now, as those will spike long before tech does, so you can cash in and then gtfo.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.03 21:58:00 -
[1430]
This conflict should eventually make for a very nice "buy in" point indeed, with an even quicker recovery afterwards. Again, granted, only if CCP does nothing to the T2 production chain before that has a chance to happen. Then again, at this point, it looks doubtful they'd do anything about it this year - too busy with Incarna and various offshoots of it needed urgently that went far beyond their initial time estimates. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.06.04 06:34:00 -
[1431]
Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 04/06/2011 06:38:10
Originally by: oniplE
He does know, he says they dont know of any other reason apart from insufficient supply, which is basically what's going on. However, I very much doubt there's no hoarding going on. Many people invested in technetium and are holding on to it, i did the same.
Insufficient supply and insufficient supply reaching the market are two different things. The former causing prices to rise...anyone could tell you that. The latter is what the doc was talking about, and Akita was referring to, and that's what the doc can't answer. By saying they didn't see signs of hoarding he wasn't saying no one is stockpiling tech, just that no entity(s) is stockpiling to the point that it's the cause of the price rocketing. Think De Beers and diamonds.
My personal feeling is that they won't likely change T2 production again until they can answer that question and they decide the answer they get is it's due to poor balance. Otherwise I'd say they're more likely to just change moon distributions so the north doesn't have all the cheddar.
Of course if poor balance isn't the answer or they never figure out the answer and tech ends up above 200K and it's pure craziness, they will eventually change it anyways. But I don't see that being much of a possibility until next Spring/Summer expansion for the same reason given by Akita: they've already got more than enough on their plate for winter.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.06.04 18:48:00 -
[1432]
Edited by: TornSoul on 04/06/2011 18:49:05
Personally I think it's stock dumping we are seeing. People starting to be nervous about a nerf in the next patch, that isn't that far off.
When I glanced at the market the other day there was something like 5-7 200K+ sell orders there.
That's stock being dumped imo.
One tech-moon yields about 70K/month - So one 200K stack is 3 tech moons for a month (round numbers)
I just don't see the war having had time to have that effect yet (new owners dumping as they got no reactions going yet)
Ofc, some of the old holders might have been stockpiling - and are now dumping. I won't rule that out. But my feel is that their issue is not so much ISK as it's manpower...
So - My bet is on nerf scared dumpers
BIG Lottery |
Black Madness
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Posted - 2011.06.04 19:33:00 -
[1433]
There was a huge sell order, of 1.2 M units.
After few minutes, it disappered and was split into several 100K units sell orders.
Then those orders began to roll downwards, taking down lemmings :) (it all began around 123K p/u price).
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.06.04 19:44:00 -
[1434]
3.2 million units have sold in the last 2.5 days. 4 million for 3.5 days. A few x00K unit orders left and then back down to the x0K orders. Not sure how long they will last at the going rate, but I have to agree with Akita T that we saw some dumping, but in the long term sky is the limit. GO TECH!
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.04 23:59:00 -
[1435]
One of the mass dumps was actually raiden., not the NC. They were the ones who were tremendously unsubtle, putting up ~1.4m units in identical stacks put up seconds apart.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.05 00:32:00 -
[1436]
Originally by: Weaselior One of the mass dumps was actually raiden., not the NC. They were the ones who were tremendously unsubtle, putting up ~1.4m units in identical stacks put up seconds apart.
Just about to write this. Confirmed.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.05 00:49:00 -
[1437]
Not really up to date with 0.0 politics, but this "Raiden." alliance looks like a fairly new one and somehow fighting against both NC and DRF ? Or did I get something wrong ? Maybe something changed recently ? _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.05 00:53:00 -
[1438]
They're the useful remnants of IT alliance that allied with WN as the key non-mercenary antagonists (protagonists?) for the early northern invasion. They are DRF-aligned because WN is DRF-aligned.
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Khanid Voltar
Night's Dawn Investment Fund
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Posted - 2011.06.08 22:26:00 -
[1439]
From this post 52 on this thread:
Originally by: CCP Greyscale
Is technetium working as intended? >> Technetium is is fairly urgent need of a nerf. That said, the reasons why it's like that are fairly well-understood internally - if you sit down and really look at the current T2 production tree (like we did when we last looked at moon minerals), you'll eventually see that it's really damn hard to solve this problem without extensive restructuring in a very messy manner. That said, we know we have to bite the bullet and make that mess at some point in the near future. (And yes, we were obviously aware that this was going to be a production bottleneck when we made the change, and no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions that were floating around at the time.)
KV
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.06.08 22:59:00 -
[1440]
Originally by: CCP Greyscale
Is technetium working as intended? >> Technetium is is fairly urgent need of a nerf. That said, the reasons why it's like that are fairly well-understood internally - if you sit down and really look at the current T2 production tree (like we did when we last looked at moon minerals), you'll eventually see that it's really damn hard to solve this problem without extensive restructuring in a very messy manner. That said, we know we have to bite the bullet and make that mess at some point in the near future. (And yes, we were obviously aware that this was going to be a production bottleneck when we made the change, and no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions that were floating around at the time.)
How very funny. On the one side they say that they want large incentives in 0.0 so that people have something valuable to fight over. On the other side they say that it is not good to have valuable stuff in 0.0.
MAKE UP YOUR MIND! |
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.08 23:21:00 -
[1441]
Edited by: Akita T on 08/06/2011 23:25:13
They want work-based high income sources but hate defense-based income sources, so that "blobbing" would have less of an effect. The effectiveness of that policy, if ever actually implemented, is questionable at best - what would be the point of capital ships then ?
On to the other thing, it depends on what they mean by "no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions". Even a 5% bottleneck difference from the second best material (at the time any existing stockpiles run out) would have the same doomsday-like effect, since it's a positive feedback reaction - whatever resource is the most rare tends to raise in price, which makes it more desirable, which makes it more contested, which reduces its availability, which tends to raise its price even more and so on and so forth. Just because they look at technetium and say "meh, it's ONLY a 15% bottleneck vs neodymium" (or 20%, or 30%, or 10%, or however much of a real bottleneck it actually is) doesn't actually mean it's not a bad thing - in fact, the only reason it's not catastrophic yet is the extensive stockpiles leftover from the time technetium was not THAT valuable (but still valuable enough to be collected). Just wait until the stockpiles run out.
As for it being a mess that's very hard to untangle by JUST altering build ratios... well, gee, welcome to two winters ago, near the start of this thread, where pretty much the same thing has been said. The solution does not lie in re-tweaking the build ratios, but in adding alternative means of obtaining either the moon minerals or the more advanced reaction products. Alchemy was a good concept, but it was not pushed far enough. Comet mining would be another decent alternative, but it's still not there. And there are other possibilities still, none of which have been even mentioned by CCP directly. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Jerry Pepridge
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Posted - 2011.06.09 00:24:00 -
[1442]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
short: sell
medium: hold
long: buy
wtf lol...
You give crap to VV for roleplaying, look at you... Mr im a stockbroker.... pfft nerd
Yours Trolly,
Mr Misty.... |
Anya Ohaya
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Posted - 2011.06.09 01:03:00 -
[1443]
Originally by: Akita T The solution does not lie in re-tweaking the build ratios, but in adding alternative means of obtaining either the moon minerals or the more advanced reaction products.
Shouldn't be that hard to add secondary, tertiary, etc sources that are less profitable (in ISK/hour) and would only be exploited if the prices rose far enough.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.09 04:16:00 -
[1444]
Originally by: Khanid Voltar From this post 52 on this thread:
Originally by: CCP Greyscale
Is technetium working as intended? >> Technetium is is fairly urgent need of a nerf. That said, the reasons why it's like that are fairly well-understood internally - if you sit down and really look at the current T2 production tree (like we did when we last looked at moon minerals), you'll eventually see that it's really damn hard to solve this problem without extensive restructuring in a very messy manner. That said, we know we have to bite the bullet and make that mess at some point in the near future. (And yes, we were obviously aware that this was going to be a production bottleneck when we made the change, and no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions that were floating around at the time.)
KV
Oh Noosss!!1 They're nerfing Tech! SELL SELL SELL!!11!
The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling and CCP's failure to implement a nerf in the next month or two.
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.06.09 04:48:00 -
[1445]
Originally by: Terrible Karma
Originally by: Khanid Voltar From this post 52 on this thread:
Originally by: CCP Greyscale
Is technetium working as intended? >> Technetium is is fairly urgent need of a nerf. That said, the reasons why it's like that are fairly well-understood internally - if you sit down and really look at the current T2 production tree (like we did when we last looked at moon minerals), you'll eventually see that it's really damn hard to solve this problem without extensive restructuring in a very messy manner. That said, we know we have to bite the bullet and make that mess at some point in the near future. (And yes, we were obviously aware that this was going to be a production bottleneck when we made the change, and no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions that were floating around at the time.)
KV
Oh Noosss!!1 They're nerfing Tech! SELL SELL SELL!!11!
The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling and CCP's failure to implement a nerf in the next month or two.
You apparently expect CCP to jump right on this when they have so much going on with the big summer release. The Tech ride will go on until at least the winter. Buy some and quit your crap chat.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.06.09 07:51:00 -
[1446]
Originally by: Terrible Karma
Oh Noosss!!1 They're nerfing Tech! SELL SELL SELL!!11!
The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling and CCP's failure to implement a nerf in the next month or two.
CCP would be crazy to nerf Technetium in the next month.
What they should do is to burst the bubble sitting over the actual shortage of it. They could start a FUD campaign by the non economy involved CCP employees. Oh wait, it's exactly what the previous posts quoted.
Only after there's no bubble in the way, it's possible to realistically model a change in the demand => supply chain.
Otherwise they risk overshooting it and nerfing it into the ground (something MMOs devs tend to do already).
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Shonion
FREE GATES HUN Reloaded
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Posted - 2011.06.09 09:49:00 -
[1447]
The best way would be to modifie the t2 manufaturing lines to set each r64 for one of the races ships. Then it's probably will need to modifie the reactions, but i'm not sure. Maybe align one or two of the r32 to this also. I wasn't had time to check everything about this, just an idea.
advantages - much less needs on one material, the needs will split. - every r64 will valuable - already have alchemy, with little changes it can keep the prices in normal ranges. [url=http://freegates.podzone.net/kb/?a=pilot_detail&plt_id=39036] [/url] |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.09 12:19:00 -
[1448]
I think it's safe to say that it's time to panic.
*runs around screaming and flailing arms*
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.09 13:44:00 -
[1449]
Edited by: Akita T on 09/06/2011 13:45:07
Originally by: Terrible Karma The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling
Probably none. I've been taking a "market timeout" for a while now, and don't really plan on getting on the rollercoaster again any time soon.
Originally by: Elise DarkStar I think it's safe to say that it's time to panic. *runs around screaming and flailing arms*
Don't forget to buy futures in pants fire extinguishers _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.09 13:54:00 -
[1450]
Originally by: Akita T Don't forget to buy futures in pants fire extinguishers
lololol
I like how they expressly took a shot at you with "not as bad as the doomsayers predicted" or whatever it was. I bet the only reason it's not at 250k or worse is because, on your analysis, people stockpiled so we didn't clear huge amounts at much lower prices and towered moons early so there was much more supply than otherwise would have been.
The silly thing is they're absolutely right that it's an incredibly hard system to balance, and their only real fault is that they're trying to create something that's too complex for their ability to control. The fact that they can't just admit you were right and they ****ed up is comical, even though they use their inability to control the system as an excuse in the very same paragraph.
:ccp:
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.09 15:02:00 -
[1451]
Their "mistake", if we are to call it that, is not designing a system that self-balances.
Right now, everything has a single path, and each path has a positive feedback. We need at least two (preferably three or even more) alternative paths, with negative feedback.
Alchemy is one such path, but its branches need to go down even to the "moonjunk", and the added fuel-based costs need to be reduced (better "time" efficiency of alchemy reactions, even if the material replacement rate goes worse than currently for some of the lower tiers). But just alchemy is not enough, you also need some "work-based" approach to obtaining moon minerals (or any of their products) - be it exploration content (combat sites, finding comets, special mission rewards), or from planetary resources, or even ship-based moon extraction boosting. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Terrible Karma
|
Posted - 2011.06.09 15:59:00 -
[1452]
Originally by: Clambumper June
Originally by: Terrible Karma
Oh Noosss!!1 They're nerfing Tech! SELL SELL SELL!!11!
The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling and CCP's failure to implement a nerf in the next month or two.
You apparently expect CCP to jump right on this when they have so much going on with the big summer release. The Tech ride will go on until at least the winter. Buy some and quit your crap chat.
I'd love to buy some, but you're ruining my chance to get rich by stopping The Panic(TM)!
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 09/06/2011 13:45:07
Originally by: Terrible Karma The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling
Probably none. I've been taking a "market timeout" for a while now, and don't really plan on getting on the roller coaster again any time soon.
What?? It's not so bad that you've decided to undock I hope?!
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Akita T Don't forget to buy futures in pants fire extinguishers
lololol
I like how they expressly took a shot at you with "not as bad as the doomsayers predicted" or whatever it was. I bet the only reason it's not at 250k or worse is because, on your analysis, people stockpiled so we didn't clear huge amounts at much lower prices and towered moons early so there was much more supply than otherwise would have been.
The silly thing is they're absolutely right that it's an incredibly hard system to balance, and their only real fault is that they're trying to create something that's too complex for their ability to control. The fact that they can't just admit you were right and they ****ed up is comical, even though they use their inability to control the system as an excuse in the very same paragraph.
:ccp:
I too find it comical how Greyscale is trying so hard to retcon their incompetence. If they really know how the production and markets worked they wouldn't have created A GIANT BOTTLENECK IN T3 PRODUCTION when they built the thing from scratch.
I disagree it's hard to make a balanced production and market chain (if that's what you're saying). T2 and T3 (or any multi-item) production chains don't necessarily have to have a bottleneck material(s).
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.09 16:09:00 -
[1453]
Originally by: Akita T Their "mistake", if we are to call it that, is not designing a system that self-balances.
Right now, everything has a single path, and each path has a positive feedback. We need at least two (preferably three or even more) alternative paths, with negative feedback.
Alchemy is one such path, but its branches need to go down even to the "moonjunk", and the added fuel-based costs need to be reduced (better "time" efficiency of alchemy reactions, even if the material replacement rate goes worse than currently for some of the lower tiers). But just alchemy is not enough, you also need some "work-based" approach to obtaining moon minerals (or any of their products) - be it exploration content (combat sites, finding comets, special mission rewards), or from planetary resources, or even ship-based moon extraction boosting.
I mostly agree, but 2 things: 1. I dislike alchemy since it's just another thing that breaks the 'hard science' feel of Eve. I'd much prefer a set of alternative BPOs for components that use various diff. mixes of inputs (e.g., much more low ends and fewer high ends). 2. I don't mind having a few really valuable passive resources such as Tc moons, but we really need a smoother transition between super valuable moons and utter trash moons. Of course, I wouldn't cry if passive sources went away and were replaced by active sources so long as bots can't make those active sources way more valuable for cheaters than regular players (e.g. 0.0 ratting).
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Terrible Karma
|
Posted - 2011.06.11 15:55:00 -
[1454]
Looks like people are running scared after all. Tc has been down about 10% for a couple days now and if the market history is accurate almost no one is buying from sell orders.
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Taedrin
Gallente The Green Cross Controlled Chaos
|
Posted - 2011.06.11 16:58:00 -
[1455]
Originally by: Terrible Karma Looks like people are running scared after all. Tc has been down about 10% for a couple days now and if the market history is accurate almost no one is buying from sell orders.
Anyone who bought from technetium sell orders was a fool, anyways. When it came to profitable reactions, all of the profit came from the fact that you bought technetium from buy orders. People who bought from sell orders had a pittance profit, on a reaction which required emptying every 2 days. ----------
Originally by: Dr Fighter "how do you know when youve had a repro accident"
Theres modules missing and morphite in your mineral pile.
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Seminole Sun
|
Posted - 2011.06.11 17:05:00 -
[1456]
Originally by: Akita T Their "mistake", if we are to call it that, is not designing a system that self-balances.
Right now, everything has a single path, and each path has a positive feedback. We need at least two (preferably three or even more) alternative paths, with negative feedback.
Alchemy is one such path, but its branches need to go down even to the "moonjunk", and the added fuel-based costs need to be reduced (better "time" efficiency of alchemy reactions, even if the material replacement rate goes worse than currently for some of the lower tiers). But just alchemy is not enough, you also need some "work-based" approach to obtaining moon minerals (or any of their products) - be it exploration content (combat sites, finding comets, special mission rewards), or from planetary resources, or even ship-based moon extraction boosting.
I find that I nearly always agree with what you say. I can't help but think it would be a better Eve if they hired you as a consultant ;)
Right now we have a variety of sources that are only brought together at the production level (and are mostly self-contained). It seems like the best, most dynamic fix is to provide "alchemy" that interchanges amongst the different sources.
Special Lava planet based alchemy that converts moon goo WH gas reactions + regular minerals that yields T2 salvage there are tons of ways to combine up our resource sources... they just need to implement them.
And for the record, I think comet mining is by far the best solution to MANY of the problems we discuss.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.06.12 15:19:00 -
[1457]
Someone just dropped 90b stack of Tech on S/O 4 ISK above the highest B/O.
I smell panic!
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Tanaka Kharn
|
Posted - 2011.06.12 16:49:00 -
[1458]
Im totaly panicing
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.06.12 18:17:00 -
[1459]
Originally by: Tanaka Kharn Im totaly panicing
I noticed your name. At least you're transparent.
How much has been panic dumped into B/O's? This is good to watch. Price plummets and then you scoop it all up.
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Tanaka Kharn
|
Posted - 2011.06.12 19:18:00 -
[1460]
A fair bit tbh but im so layz with the 0.01 isking that i miss a fair few.
Truth be told I do actualy have to get out of tech at some point soon. Actualy I have to liquidate everything I have.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.06.12 19:22:00 -
[1461]
Originally by: Tanaka Kharn A fair bit tbh but im so layz with the 0.01 isking that i miss a fair few.
Truth be told I do actualy have to get out of tech at some point soon. Actualy I have to liquidate everything I have.
Need more Supercarriers?
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.06.12 19:28:00 -
[1462]
BOOM. SOmeone just scopped up the 110k units at 110k.
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Tanaka Kharn
|
Posted - 2011.06.12 19:28:00 -
[1463]
Originally by: Herman Klaus BOOM. SOmeone just scopped up the 110k units at 110k.
Nom Nom
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Ludacrys
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 03:32:00 -
[1464]
massive butthurt incoming
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Terrible Karma
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 04:23:00 -
[1465]
Originally by: Ludacrys massive butthurt incoming
Is there some new bit of info. that's been released or on the test server???
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 09:09:00 -
[1466]
Edited by: Akita T on 17/06/2011 09:16:33
Just the panic caused by the (heavily paraphrasing) "well, we'll have to do something about technetium sooner or later, and we'd prefer to do it sooner, but it's oh so damn hard, give us a break, it's not quite as bad as you said it would be and we totally knew it anyway when we first did it" comments in the "dev answers" thread. Of course, this is actually code for "we're not touching it this year but we totally promise we'll do something eventually", not for "next big patch, tech is screwed" like some people seem to read between those lines.
The fact that all those words came up just as the tech market reached a mini-slump of its own naturally (any stockpiles of tech being sold by parties involved in the northern war at just about any price just to get some liquidity fast) and panic overlapped with a small drop has caused the drop to amplify (panic-selling of some traders and/or long term holders). It's not like we didn't know from day one that CCP would eventually have to do something, it was only a matter of "when". Now that they have officially acknowledged it, some people seem to think that it means it will happen sooner than they expected. Of course, they might be right, but I doubt it _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 09:34:00 -
[1467]
Originally by: Akita T
The fact that all those words came up just as the tech market reached a mini-slump of its own naturally (any stockpiles of tech being sold by parties involved in the northern war at just about any price just to get some liquidity fast) and panic overlapped with a small drop has caused the drop to amplify (panic-selling of some traders and/or long term holders).
It's not a random chance that CCP scared people twice (technetium and PLEX) and *guess what* right when it was the best time to cause a larger reaction. They are simply manipulating the markets with the most easiest tools.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 16:59:00 -
[1468]
Since this latest post the price has gone sub 100k. Everyone wants out.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 17:12:00 -
[1469]
Originally by: Herman Klaus Since this latest post the price has gone sub 100k. Everyone wants out.
I wonder how low it can go before the bounceback... _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Elise DarkStar
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 17:16:00 -
[1470]
**** me, I wish I had foreseen this level of panic...
****
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Elise DarkStar
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 17:17:00 -
[1471]
Seriously
****
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Tanaka Kharn
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 17:37:00 -
[1472]
I have so much tech now.
The chicken bones have been saying buy
I'm still a little scared tho and I guess it didnt need me trying to push it down at all over the last few weeks.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.17 17:49:00 -
[1473]
It's good to always have that nagging doubt, but I think buy buy buying is safe bet. I wish I had been paying attention to the market the least couple weeks...god damn pvping in Eve, wtf was I thinking?
Enjoy your highly likely massive returns.
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Hauler Jill
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.06.17 17:51:00 -
[1474]
Originally by: Herman Klaus Since this latest post the price has gone sub 100k. Everyone wants out.
The buy price dropped to 60k at one point. Didn't take me long to raise it back to just under 100k though.
Carry on panicking folks
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.06.17 19:07:00 -
[1475]
'tis almost like christmas
Just a few more days at this rate...
BIG Lottery |
Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 20:33:00 -
[1476]
FFS! I've ran out of liquid ISK!
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
|
Posted - 2011.06.17 22:38:00 -
[1477]
Tsk, tsk, tsk, stop buying, let them crash it more before you purchase, dammit ! If it was going to fall under 75k I was going to re-buy...
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.06.17 23:08:00 -
[1478]
Originally by: Akita T Tsk, tsk, tsk, stop buying, let them crash it more before you purchase, dammit ! If it was going to fall under 75k I was going to re-buy...
Heh, too late. Totally out of ISK now. Prepatch speculation has broken me
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.06.18 18:40:00 -
[1479]
TECHNETIUM NOT GETTING TOUCHED IN INCARNA!!!
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY!!!
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.18 18:50:00 -
[1480]
Yup. Tech up, thulium down as you mother****ers bounce to this.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.18 21:41:00 -
[1481]
Originally by: Herman Klaus TECHNETIUM NOT GETTING TOUCHED IN INCARNA!!!
Duuuh _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.18 22:14:00 -
[1482]
Originally by: Akita T
Duuuh
Ya, I was totally surprised by the extent of the panic considering the minuscule chance of a stealth fix.
Ah well, next time I'll have less faith in people's judgment and be better prepared to profit from it.
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.06.19 20:34:00 -
[1483]
Tech is going down again later, there are just not enough buy orders, i would advice you let it go down to at least 80k before trying to play speculation games so we all win
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Gillaboo
|
Posted - 2011.06.19 21:13:00 -
[1484]
Originally by: Ludacrys Tech is going down again later, there are just not enough buy orders, i would advice you let it go down to at least 80k before trying to play speculation games so we all win
There are those among us who would suggest that the crashing Tech prices are merely coincidental with the sudden increase in Thulium buy orders....
But that would be speculating.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.06.20 17:26:00 -
[1485]
Originally by: Gillaboo
Originally by: Ludacrys Tech is going down again later, there are just not enough buy orders, i would advice you let it go down to at least 80k before trying to play speculation games so we all win
There are those among us who would suggest that the crashing Tech prices are merely coincidental with the sudden increase in Thulium buy orders....
But that would be speculating.
You people pushing Thulium are failing so hard. If Tech is worth **** all then why has someone just bought around 50b up off the market making me a small fortune?
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.20 17:54:00 -
[1486]
Originally by: Ludacrys Tech is going down again later, there are just not enough buy orders, i would advice you let it go down to at least 80k before trying to play speculation games so we all win
laffo
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.20 17:57:00 -
[1487]
also it was way more than 50b, and the person was so lazy they did it with a 120k buy order
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.06.20 18:19:00 -
[1488]
Me right now!
Im so happy
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.06.20 18:25:00 -
[1489]
Edited by: Herman Klaus on 20/06/2011 18:27:29
Originally by: Weaselior also it was way more than 50b, and the person was so lazy they did it with a 120k buy order
Haha! Never noticed that. Epic!
Also, Tanaka... I see you
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.06.20 18:26:00 -
[1490]
SHHHHHH
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
|
Posted - 2011.06.20 18:28:00 -
[1491]
Originally by: Tanaka Kharn SHHHHHH
Edited
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.06.20 18:32:00 -
[1492]
Heheh lolz
RIght since im drinking im gona stay outa this tom foolery
PS edit vvv kind of you sir.
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Gillaboo
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Posted - 2011.06.20 18:35:00 -
[1493]
Originally by: Herman Klaus You people pushing Thulium are failing so hard. If Tech is worth **** all then why has someone just bought around 50b up off the market making me a small fortune?
We push, then we sell before it peaks, we get out with the profit before the crash... where is the FAIL in that? Would using smaller words help?
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.20 18:58:00 -
[1494]
Edited by: Weaselior on 20/06/2011 18:59:21 the actual reason tech fell were a couple of newly-tech rich alliances are idiots about selling it, and sell it in a giant chunk they just dump on the market, instead of NC alliances who have had time to learn how to do it properly
they'll learn quick enough
edit: raiden and merciless were the two offenders I noticed
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.06.20 23:40:00 -
[1495]
See, tech price is completely inflated, if let alone it would fall like a stone
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.06.21 02:26:00 -
[1496]
Originally by: Ludacrys See, tech price is completely inflated, if let alone it would fall like a stone
I understand you want to be a cool rap star, but truth be told, you come off like every other dumb pop star who thinks an over processed vocal track will sell their records. You sir have a lame name and a lame sense of the market. Move along and find some other thread to camp. A little reading and research will tell you the truth. If you can't read the proven numbers already placed in this thread then you qualify my previous statement. Pick yourself up, move along.
/Three Finger Salute (Girl Scouts of America Salute)
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.21 14:40:00 -
[1497]
it's sort of flattering people think that a bunch of 0.0 pvp alliances could conspire together so effectively, goonswarm is the only one with a really developed financial division due to our "whoops, where did our sov go" incident and our "i wonder how long we can run an alliance off ratting taxes alone" period
0.0 alliances are lead by people who think they're napoleon in space, not croseus in space
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.21 14:44:00 -
[1498]
Conspiracies are easy to imagine; slightly more difficult to enact.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.21 14:56:00 -
[1499]
I would have carteled tech in a heartbeat if I could, but the issue is that it's not alliance who owned most tech: it was corporations inside that alliance. That meant I couldn't go call up the head of MM and Razor and have OTEC made, I'd have had to negotiate individually with every single corp in those alliances, every corp in lesser NC alliances, then get PL/NC. in on it when they took venal moons. All of these people just want the damn money now, and don't want to wait. Maybe they have a titan they want to put in. Maybe (given some of the rumors) they have some $$ they need and need some tech to sell to have isk to sell. Maybe they just don't trust everyone else not to cheat while they horde tech, lowering their profits for everyone else's. In addition, maybe they don't want to risk stockpiling tech when it will be nerfed at some point - their stockpile may get wiped out in a patch and they won't have made enough in increased prices to make up for the tech they could have sold (this really increases the free-rider problem: the solution is everyone else to cartel, while you cheat your heart out).
Now, even within my own corps the people who mine moons are the most horrid of all industrialists, trying to do this with so many other corps would probably lead to open warfare.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.06.22 15:59:00 -
[1500]
2.5m units...ok, I'm impressed.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.06.22 18:33:00 -
[1501]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar 2.5m units...ok, I'm impressed.
Epic MD get. I was after that you git!
But ya. Almost 300b in Tech. Wow! Trying to keep the price down.....
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LarcatOfZion
Red Federation
|
Posted - 2011.06.22 18:48:00 -
[1502]
Originally by: Clambumper June
Originally by: Ludacrys See, tech price is completely inflated, if let alone it would fall like a stone
I understand you want to be a cool rap star, but truth be told, you come off like every other dumb pop star who thinks an over processed vocal track will sell their records. You sir have a lame name and a lame sense of the market. Move along and find some other thread to camp. A little reading and research will tell you the truth. If you can't read the proven numbers already placed in this thread then you qualify my previous statement. Pick yourself up, move along.
/Three Finger Salute (Girl Scouts of America Salute)
You have both an excellent name and excellent poasts. I would like to subscribe.
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LarcatOfZion
Red Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.22 18:50:00 -
[1503]
Originally by: Weaselior
Now, even within my own corps the people who mine moons are the most horrid of all industrialists, trying to do this with so many other corps would probably lead to open warfare.
Can you explain what you mean by this? I don't know any moonminers, so I don't know what their outlook is like at all.
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.22 19:41:00 -
[1504]
Originally by: LarcatOfZion
Originally by: Weaselior
Now, even within my own corps the people who mine moons are the most horrid of all industrialists, trying to do this with so many other corps would probably lead to open warfare.
Can you explain what you mean by this? I don't know any moonminers, so I don't know what their outlook is like at all.
A lot of drama: everyone has an entitlement complex to all the moons they want and think the guy that got there first is cheating. Because there's a limited number of good moons, people tend to be absolute jerks about sniping all of them they can, as well as incredibly whiny that they don't have the moons they want. Anything else, people can cooperate, but every moon miner is himself against every other moon miner in the alliance.
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LarcatOfZion
Red Federation
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Posted - 2011.06.22 19:48:00 -
[1505]
Originally by: Weaselior
Originally by: LarcatOfZion
Originally by: Weaselior
Now, even within my own corps the people who mine moons are the most horrid of all industrialists, trying to do this with so many other corps would probably lead to open warfare.
Can you explain what you mean by this? I don't know any moonminers, so I don't know what their outlook is like at all.
A lot of drama: everyone has an entitlement complex to all the moons they want and think the guy that got there first is cheating. Because there's a limited number of good moons, people tend to be absolute jerks about sniping all of them they can, as well as incredibly whiny that they don't have the moons they want. Anything else, people can cooperate, but every moon miner is himself against every other moon miner in the alliance.
I always just assumed that the directors of big alliances would have cronies that would set up the POSes, and that the goo was semi-communal property the proceeds from the sales thereof were used by leadership to buy titans and crap.
You mean individuals in big alliances get the cashflows from the goo?
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
|
Posted - 2011.06.22 23:41:00 -
[1506]
Edited by: Weaselior on 22/06/2011 23:44:29
Originally by: LarcatOfZion
I always just assumed that the directors of big alliances would have cronies that would set up the POSes, and that the goo was semi-communal property the proceeds from the sales thereof were used by leadership to buy titans and crap.
You mean individuals in big alliances get the cashflows from the goo?
Depends on the alliance and the moon. How goonswarm works is certan moons (tech, neo, dysp, prom) are alliance moons: they're owned by the alliance, the alliance towers it. However, lesser moons (platinum, for example) are privately owned. Any member of the alliance can own those, first come first served. However Goonswarm is unique in that much more is done at the alliance level, instead of the corp level. In other alliances (such as the former NC) those valuable moons like technetium are owned at the corp level - various corps in the alliance own them and they have their own ways of distributing them and so on. If you want to do something with tech in Goonswarm, you talk to me, but in most alliances there is a huge list of people you must talk to and all of them are gonna be annoyed they don't have more technetium and be all whiny and bitter.
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Lieutenant Obvious
Lobster Sticks To Magnet
|
Posted - 2011.06.23 03:53:00 -
[1507]
Edited by: Lieutenant Obvious on 23/06/2011 03:54:21 Razor distributes the "big money" moons appropriately to individual corps. More active (PVP) corps get more moons. The corps get to determine what they do with their moon goo gold. We had massive reimbursement plans, for instance, and life was good.
Within the corps, those big money moons are controlled by the corp itself. Within my old corp, it eventually became that no individuals were supposed to have their own moons (as they were likely to have them shot down by our numerous opponents, and we weren't going to defend them with alliance assets). Of course, there were some exceptions.
As Weaslior has said (and I have iterated a few times now), it just WASN'T possible for the NC to cartel anything, because "the NC" is a group of alliance, those alliances had groups of corps, and (in our case) the corp was who controlled the technetium - not the NC, not the alliance.
And you know how many corps there were in the NC? ****ing buttloads. Cartel that.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
|
Posted - 2011.06.23 06:25:00 -
[1508]
So, people invested on Technetium on the premise NC acted like a centralized alliance like BoB did with Dysprosium and similar?
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Lieutenant Obvious
Lobster Sticks To Magnet
|
Posted - 2011.06.23 08:27:00 -
[1509]
If they did, then they invested/speculated on bad info/assumptions. End result is the same, however, and the upshot is that there should be no fear anything will change now - except that MAYBE the new guys could actually cartel which would make all of us much happier.
Well, if they figure out how not to be ******ed at selling moon mins in gigantic, single lumps.
As an FYI, most of my old corp's moon goo was sold to BUY orders also. I once convinced them to let me proxy and actually market it in SELL orders (and hold off for the midweek price increase), but that was for a relatively short time as I became inactive a few months from that point. They didn't care how much it was, where in the weekly cycle it was, etc. They just wanted the isk. Immediately. Usually for that next replenishment of geddons/apocs/guardians/sabres/etc or the next titan.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.06.25 11:39:00 -
[1510]
Damn - Already rebounding.
Never got as low as I was hoping for...
Time to cheer for it to skyrocket again I guess...
BIG Lottery |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.06.25 15:36:00 -
[1511]
Originally by: TornSoul Damn - Already rebounding.
Never got as low as I was hoping for...
Time to cheer for it to skyrocket again I guess...
Let me guess, it started rising once the overall market liquidity (read: strong investors) moved out of PLEXes?
Because that's what happens in RL too, when a market is not seen as very profitable, you see its liquidity drop.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.30 16:32:00 -
[1512]
Any news / speculation on Tc? Seems like CCP have their hands full right now with all the rage so perhaps Tc has another 6 months to a year till the Patch of Doom(TM) arrives. Still, a lot of players have said they're canceling accounts and I wonder if there will be unexpected wider market implications. IIRC Tc demand is well over supply though I can't recall the actual percentage. It seems unlikely demand would fall below supply, but is most demand generated from 0.0 fights or just average player churn?
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.06.30 17:54:00 -
[1513]
The "ragequit" counts are not much higher than normal seasonal fluctuations. And ragequitters might very well give away their possessions to others. So actually, demand could even go up because of it.
Too many variables to tell for sure. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.07.07 16:47:00 -
[1514]
550k stacks.... sigh... *Wabs would like to see it go up again now...
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.07.08 11:03:00 -
[1515]
Looks like there is some serious pressure, pushing the prices down heavily.
We just saw buy orders for 94k getting filled, and sell orders of more than 800k units.
If that is market manipulation or original oversupply/underdemand remains to be seen.
It looks like we won't see top prices soon again. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.08 12:30:00 -
[1516]
Nice panics are good for business |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.08 12:52:00 -
[1517]
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 08/07/2011 12:53:22 I'm an optimist, I think this is the final slumpglut that I was expecting to occur closer to 150k pu. The true believers who hold on now will reap the final pre-nerf reward.
Edit: I should disclose that I am not holding tech right now, so despite my big opinion I have better bets going. Even if I am right about tech, I think it will be a while before people see their payday. |
Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.09 01:09:00 -
[1518]
Originally by: Akita T Nice panics are good for business
You know it's odd. If it was just a panic AND Tc was as much of a bottleneck as we think then prices should be rising for the end products since production has slowed due to panic. It's not like we had stockpiles of Tc to go through. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.09 11:14:00 -
[1519]
Edited by: Akita T on 09/07/2011 11:17:24
Originally by: Terrible Karma
Originally by: Akita T Nice panics are good for business
You know it's odd. If it was just a panic AND Tc was as much of a bottleneck as we think then prices should be rising for the end products since production has slowed due to panic. It's not like we had stockpiles of Tc to go through.
Actually, yes, we did have HUGE stockpiles, that was the only reason the price of tech hasn't shot up like crazy immediately after the Dominion patch and instead it slowly creeped upwards. And we still have serious stockpiles (smaller than those in December 2009, but still noticeable), with current stockpilers being the main sellers in a time of "it will almost certainly be nerfed, and I'm afraid it will happen before I can unload my piles at a high price" type of panic, like the one happening right now. I'm not saying the panic is not justified, because it just might be - CCP could (at least theoretically) end up rejiggering (nerfing) Technetium before the stockpiles actually do run out (so before Tech has a chance to reach truly "Monopolesque" levels of pricing).
P.S. Anyway, in this particular type of panic, end product prices go lower, not higher. |
Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.10 02:00:00 -
[1520]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 09/07/2011 11:17:24
Originally by: Terrible Karma
Originally by: Akita T Nice panics are good for business
You know it's odd. If it was just a panic AND Tc was as much of a bottleneck as we think then prices should be rising for the end products since production has slowed due to panic. It's not like we had stockpiles of Tc to go through.
Actually, yes, we did have HUGE stockpiles, that was the only reason the price of tech hasn't shot up like crazy immediately after the Dominion patch and instead it slowly creeped upwards. And we still have serious stockpiles (smaller than those in December 2009, but still noticeable), with current stockpilers being the main sellers in a time of "it will almost certainly be nerfed, and I'm afraid it will happen before I can unload my piles at a high price" type of panic, like the one happening right now. I'm not saying the panic is not justified, because it just might be - CCP could (at least theoretically) end up rejiggering (nerfing) Technetium before the stockpiles actually do run out (so before Tech has a chance to reach truly "Monopolesque" levels of pricing).
P.S. Anyway, in this particular type of panic, end product prices go lower, not higher.
Didn't the CCP economist say they looked into stockpiling and there was no Tc related stockpiling during fanfest?! What evidence are you looking at to say there are large stocks? I'm not setup to do the calculations quickly, but what do your #'s say when you plug them into the calc's you did at the beginning of this tread? If you're right we should see that supply of the Tc end products is much larger than the maximum steady state Tc production. |
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.10 02:42:00 -
[1521]
Edited by: Akita T on 10/07/2011 02:43:00
Originally by: Terrible Karma Didn't the CCP economist say they looked into stockpiling and there was no Tc related stockpiling during fanfest?!
This is what was actually said. "Is anybody hoarding it trying to cash on it ? We have not seen that, but people are clever about doing so." "There's nothing in the data saying anything unusual is going on. Just trades between people. We do not see anyone stock it up."
Which might as well be perfectly true - nobody is "stocking it up", more than is extracted is being consumed, and people might slowly release previously available stockpiles to market. Nothing was said about pre-existing stockpiles levels however, from long before Dominion.
Quote: What evidence are you looking at to say there are large stocks? I'm not setup to do the calculations quickly, but what do your #'s say when you plug them into the calc's you did at the beginning of this tread? If you're right we should see that supply of the Tc end products is much larger than the maximum steady state Tc production.
Guesstimates at quantity of Technetium used up compared to quantity of Technetium being extracted put the drain on pre-existing stockpiles at anywhere between 50k and 200k units per day. But that's now, and no idea how much higher (or lower) that drain was before prices settled (especially in the time right after Dominion). Of course, those are just guesstimates, so, meh. Could be even less, could be a lot more. I still don't know the EXACT total Technetium moon count, even that one is a guesstimate with a pretty wide possible range. And estimating the usage rate is also quite difficult. However, we had at least two whole years in which the Technetium was valuable enough to be mostly extracted (well, a year and a half or a bit less, the introduction of alchemy relegated it from spot #3 to spot #5 in sales price), but not needed in large enough quantities to be a supply problem - which means we could be looking at anywhere between 100 mil to 350 mil Tech units in distributed stockpiles across the entire game population at the moment Dominion rolled in. Considering I had nearly 7 mil Tech when Dominion hit, and I was by far not the largest holder, 100 mil doesn't sound at all far-fetched, quite the opposite. 350 mil might be a bit much, but it would have been possible. But again, guesstimates galore. Too many variables to know for sure. Stockpiles could have been much lower, or they could have been noticeably higher. I certainly don't know for sure.
All of this could mean the tech stockpiles could end up exhausted after Dominion in anything between a year and a half (which would be right about now) to 20 years (which would be so distant as to not be worth mentioning). But the uncertainty in both of those figures before makes this wildly inaccurate.
What is worth mentioning is that the higher the Tech prices went, the less of the stockpiles were actually being used up, which on one hand kept the price from spiking too fast, but on the other hand made the problem look far less bad compared to how it actually was in terms of raw production.
Anybody gambling in Technetium now (because it is a gamble at this point, much more so than it was when Dominion hit) is betting against two big separate things - the time until CCP does something against Technetium's scarcity and high price (and to a lesser degree, the magnitude of the change) and on the size of the existing stockpiles (so how long until prices have no choice but to radically go up).
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.10 07:07:00 -
[1522]
Yeah, plus right now there are much more promising markets than Tech.
It'd be fun if someone could scavenge the year old posts with me and Anakienine discussing about the future (now current) Tech prices. |
Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.07.10 10:15:00 -
[1523]
Well i'm not saying names (it's clear by buying a unit) but someone is doing their best to push it down. Dumping stockpiles at 96k when the next price is 103k.
How long will that sit there for? It's still a highly demanded item. Only a week or so back someone put a B/O for millions of units at 120k. DIdn't even buy up from the sell orders. Just paid everyone below 120k. |
Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.10 16:07:00 -
[1524]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Yeah, plus right now there are much more promising markets than Tech.
It'd be fun if someone could scavenge the year old posts with me and Anakienine discussing about the future (now current) Tech prices.
What markets would those be? When you start a well sourced thread like this one I'll believe it. |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2011.07.11 05:23:00 -
[1525]
Edited by: AnakieNine on 11/07/2011 05:24:29
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Yeah, plus right now there are much more promising markets than Tech.
It'd be fun if someone could scavenge the year old posts with me and Anakienine discussing about the future (now current) Tech prices.
Did someone say my name. I was only talking to a friend a couple of weeks ago about that thread. I mentioned I had re-read it and was happy with how things apply today.
It is/was pretty spot on.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.11 07:05:00 -
[1526]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 11/07/2011 07:06:01
Originally by: AnakieNine
Did someone say my name. Hi VV.
A couple of weeks ago I was talking to a friend about that thread. I mentioned I had just re-read it and was happy with how things applied today.
It is/was pretty spot on. I don't actively play anymore and allowed 11 of my 13 accounts to go idle. The remaining 2 Only really get used to collect rare items off the markets along with and the occasional long term sell/buy.
Edit) What the hell! For those that want to go down memory lane. :) First the Nanotransistors thread which latter moved over to the Technetium
Hello, AnakieNine. It was fun times, expecially that forum flirting to make the prices go where you wanted
I have just viewed those old threads, that indirectly sent back to my RL analysis thread, where there was that graph showing Tech ceiling at 120k so many months ahead of the time...
At the same time, those flaming me for Technical Analysis (which in this case I did not even use):
Quote:
I'm still not bullish about tech in the 80k+ range
Hell, yeah
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
AnakieNine
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Posted - 2011.07.11 17:01:00 -
[1527]
Yes it was fun times I normally never go public with anything. A smart trader will tell you that you make more by keeping it to yourself and milking it for what it is worth. It can take longer but finding the right item to work is also time consuming.
This time however I was sick of holding a large amount of techn product (up to 750b) and felt it would be the right time to see how much public opinion and knowledge could effect market. Both positive and negative.
I also wanted to give players willing to take a bit of notice some insight into how a largish eve-trader watches the markets and the simple things that they take notice of. Nothing to complex. I think that thread helped increase the tech chain 10-15k but in the end it also delayed the future increases while the market stalled and slightly dropped to keep closer to equilibrium.
I've always hoped eve would have more players that would look at manipulating other items in eve. When I played heavily I got sick of being one of the few aggressive players that enjoyed buying out various items in Jita and push them up 15%-40%. Every 2-3 days I would buyout another item in the 2-20b+ range and work it for a week to maintain a higher price. At a peak I was rotating around 50 items at a time for periods of 1-6 months. It was really just about picking the right items at the right time, buying it out knowing it was going up anyway, and holding stock until the price stabilized and was able to handle a slow sell off without crashing the price. Note) Never buy more than 1, sometimes 2 days worth of Jita's stock. It almost always ends up in frustration and less than optimum profits.
I haven't watched the tech market very close lately. It does seems to be at one of those interesting times. The new moon holders don't know how to sell their product effectively. Normally having less producers/sellers should increase the price however selling in massive batches that aren't updated often will always cause a downward push until that blocking player is out of stock or people stop underbidding them. If I was still heavily playing the tech market I would be watching it closely. When (If) those batches disappear and can't be immediately replaced there will be a nice spike. Not unlike the fullerides market in the last few days. That rarely updated 22m unit order pushed the price down nicely before it ran out and resulted in an equally nice 15% increase. It doesn't sound like much but for players with large wallets, the large market value makes the isk returns worthwhile.
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raukosen
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Posted - 2011.07.11 17:35:00 -
[1528]
You had 750bn just in tech? Did you get that rich just from trading, or from production as well?
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Black Madness
Minmatar Natural Born Builders United Corporations Of Modern Eve
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Posted - 2011.07.11 18:27:00 -
[1529]
Originally by: raukosen You had 750bn just in tech? Did you get that rich just from trading, or from production as well?
He's that rich from doing <insert_whatever_one_can_do_in_eve> here. -----------------------------------------
We Buy Bulk Minerals: http://goo.gl/PgDGV
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RAW23
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Posted - 2011.07.11 18:44:00 -
[1530]
Originally by: raukosen You had 750bn just in tech? Did you get that rich just from trading, or from production as well?
He used to own Domain.
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AnakieNine
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Posted - 2011.07.12 01:46:00 -
[1531]
He's that rich from doing <insert_whatever_one_can_do_in_eve> here.
Pretty much. However I think you have insider information? hehe :P
Black was one of the few people that was privy to real time info on a number of things I was doing around that time. I miss chatting to that old group of players.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.13 00:17:00 -
[1532]
Originally by: AnakieNine He's that rich from doing <insert_whatever_one_can_do_in_eve> here.
Pretty much. However I think you have insider information? hehe :P
Black was one of the few people that was privy to real time info on a number of things I was doing around that time. I miss chatting to that old group of players.
I'm curious about a few things. What is your current NAV if you don't mind telling? Did you make that mostly from trading or were high level 0.0 alliance contacts / activities critical to making over a trillion isk? One guy said you owned Domain? Does that mean you were in charge of moon goo in the days of BoB?
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Aliella
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Posted - 2011.07.13 04:29:00 -
[1533]
From this trillionaire thread
Originally by: AnakieNine The last time I calculated all my accounts NAV it was around 2.5T. That excluds 1000's of BPO's, and a nice little collection of T2 bpos collected because they are rare. It also doesn't include all the special items from contracts. i.e faction loot and things like that.
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Exordium8
Minmatar Operational Detachment-Alpha The 0rphanage
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Posted - 2011.07.13 12:00:00 -
[1534]
Edited by: Exordium8 on 13/07/2011 12:00:53
Originally by: CSM Meeting Minutes CSM brought up the issue of moon product bottlenecks...nothing is presently in design.
Does this suggest to anyone else that we won't see a change until winter at least? --------------------------------- Pillage, then burn. Everything is air-droppable at least once. There is no 'overkill.' There is only 'open fire' and 'time to reload.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.13 13:08:00 -
[1535]
Edited by: Akita T on 13/07/2011 13:08:50
Originally by: Exordium8
Originally by: CSM Meeting Minutes CSM brought up the issue of moon product bottlenecks...nothing is presently in design.
Does this suggest to anyone else that we won't see a change until winter at least?
Almost certainly.
And then, probably not even that "soon". Pfft, two years of this. Seriously ? _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.07.13 13:17:00 -
[1536]
Now if we could only teach the Russians in White Noise how to sell the stuff properly without killing the market with a 850,000 block. Seriously, you update the order a couple times a day and as soon as it gets update 9 others update theirs. They are driving it down down down a few 100 isk at a time.
P.S. War Tactical Groups [WATAG] owns the 850K block and they don't seem to be catching on to any suggestions to how to sell Technetium.
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Twisted Girl
Sniggerdly Pandemic Legion
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Posted - 2011.07.14 04:38:00 -
[1537]
Edited by: Twisted Girl on 14/07/2011 04:43:48
Originally by: Clambumper June Now if we could only teach the Russians in White Noise how to sell the stuff properly without killing the market with a 850,000 block. Seriously, you update the order a couple times a day and as soon as it gets update 9 others update theirs. They are driving it down down down a few 100 isk at a time.
P.S. War Tactical Groups [WATAG] owns the 850K block and they don't seem to be catching on to any suggestions to how to sell Technetium.
Dont think he cares.......he has it:)
replace direct tv with tec moons and you got it:)'
Meanwhile I got this luxerative deal where I sell you info about when PL/NC./WN tec cartell is about to dump a lot of tec on market/hold it off. So basicly you can make a ****ton of money on stocking up/reselling. PM me for detailes.
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StuRyan
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Posted - 2011.07.14 09:31:00 -
[1538]
Bring in more tech moons and over supply it, - create a new bottleneck, at same time allowing the art of moon scanning - as far as im concerned all the moon materials are available through dotlan -
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Esan Vartesa
Khanid Trade Syndicate
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Posted - 2011.07.14 18:32:00 -
[1539]
Eventually moon mining is going to be completely overhauled and will be more like PI, but still requiring a POS.
Won't that be interesting...
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.07.14 20:54:00 -
[1540]
OUCH! Tech just hit 89k!
That was a MASSIVE dump onto the market
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.14 21:15:00 -
[1541]
The jig is up, guys. This manipulation has been going on for almost a year now, and everyone is getting out while they still can. Sell your **** at whatever price you can while you still can. It'll be below 20k pu by the weekend.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.14 22:55:00 -
[1542]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar The jig is up, guys. This manipulation has been going on for almost a year now, and everyone is getting out while they still can. Sell your **** at whatever price you can while you still can. It'll be below 20k pu by the weekend.
Sell, sell, sell ! so I can buy, buy, buy
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Bulletproof Jr
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Posted - 2011.07.14 22:59:00 -
[1543]
"Time to crash the tech market."
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2011.07.14 23:20:00 -
[1544]
Edited by: MMarlon on 14/07/2011 23:27:38
Don't catch falling knife with bear hands.
Edit: to add couple of tulips here and there. About the knife
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Candy Oshea
Amarr Techfree Investment Group
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Posted - 2011.07.14 23:41:00 -
[1545]
Originally by: Herman Klaus OUCH! Tech just hit 89k!
That was a MASSIVE dump onto the market
Seriously? ___ iCandy Bonds
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.07.15 01:15:00 -
[1546]
Originally by: Akita T
Sell, sell, sell ! so I can buy, buy, buy
Heh. This weekend should be interesting...
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.15 01:18:00 -
[1547]
I feel bad for everyone still holding thinking this is all a big joke. Fill those buy orders while they're still there. Better to get 70k or 80k pu now than 20k come Sunday.
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.07.15 01:51:00 -
[1548]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Fill those buy orders while they're still there. Better to get 70k or 80k pu now than 20k come Sunday.
While I think its very possible to have a further drop, 20K seems like a severe overreaction. You'd basically need to have the old NC (or an allied/friendly Trader with enough stockpiles) try to deliberately crash the market, in an attempt to generate a Pyrrhic victory for DRF. It's already been discussed here that its not likely to happen. Even if it could the timing is probably 2-4 weeks too late anyway (for the best effect).
50K or 60K is more likely, but cannot check the graph right now. Regardless of where it ends up though, I'm not likely to buy until I see it peeking back up after this crash finishes.
[Disclaimer: Never held the stuff (as of this post) and have no personal interest in either side of the conflict (other than it being an interesting read).]
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.15 01:58:00 -
[1549]
Hmm, an interesting alternative for current Technetium owners, regardless of what happens later with Technetium (or, better said, ESPECIALLY if it's bound to bounce back) : first, dump all Technetium ASAP (accelerating its fall artificially), THEN heavily buy up Neodymium, maybe even a bit of Platinum, Dysprosium and Promethium (because as Technetium falls, those should go up), THEN when Technetium stabilizes sell what you got before and re-buy Technetium (but only if you're reasonably sure Technetium will go back up). _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Bulletproof Jr
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Posted - 2011.07.15 02:34:00 -
[1550]
Posting in a panic
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.15 04:36:00 -
[1551]
So I was rolling around in null tonight and dont feel like logging my Jita alt, are there any buy orders left or has it crashed completely to <20k sells? Hopefully there are enough dumbos putting up buy orders tomorrow that a few of you can still get out with some reasonable fraction of what you paid.
Good luck.
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Tigerras
Smash Incorporated
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Posted - 2011.07.15 04:44:00 -
[1552]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar So I was rolling around in null tonight and dont feel like logging my Jita alt, are there any buy orders left or has it crashed completely to <20k sells? Hopefully there are enough dumbos putting up buy orders tomorrow that a few of you can still get out with some reasonable fraction of what you paid.
Good luck.
it's down to 100 ipu.
Oh wait...no, it's still near 91k buy 100k sell --------------------------------------- Tigerras's Audits and Third-Party Servicing |
MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2011.07.15 09:16:00 -
[1553]
Ahh, let it drop in peace. Was nice ride, and good is all have stocked tulips to last for couple of years.
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Tanaka Kharn
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Posted - 2011.07.15 09:27:00 -
[1554]
I got out last week.
Now for some less intense eve time I think. Was fun but hanging up my coat and putting a cuppa on.
Thanks Akita T for this thread you made so long ago and good luck to those still in the market I hope you make a killing.
TLDR: Thanks 4 da fish
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.17 21:23:00 -
[1555]
Looks like the panic is accelerating. Tc is down to 69.9k pu. I'm told some guy from Raiden named Geezh sold out to a lot of buy orders. I wonder if the alliances are trying Akita's suggestions.
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traktorgroove
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Posted - 2011.07.17 21:24:00 -
[1556]
270k buy orders from 69 to 50k then a gap right down to 5k pu
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2011.07.17 22:16:00 -
[1557]
Good times |
Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.07.17 22:21:00 -
[1558]
I could fill all these buy orders and it'd hurt ALOT. I'm curious what would happen though.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.17 22:40:00 -
[1559]
Told you guys.
should be 20k sells, 5k buys by monday morning normal person tz (na).
Gratz to those who listened, rofl at those who didnt get out at 80k/90k, enjoy getting a quarter of that.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.07.17 22:45:00 -
[1560]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Told you guys.
should be 20k sells, 5k buys by monday morning normal person tz (na).
Gratz to those who listened, rofl at those who didnt get out at 80k/90k, enjoy getting a quarter of that.
What better way to hurt the Russians taking over the north than to crash the reason they're there. If the Tech moons seem worthless then NC leave with a smug grim on their faces.
Still doesn't get round the fact that the moons don't pump out enough to satisfy daily demand. Therefore once all the speculation holders get out of Tech then it can only go back up. Its gonna be a slow burner, but it'll be back over 100k by Sept.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2011.07.17 22:52:00 -
[1561]
Nice thinking Herman, but i think every one including the dogs have so much stocked of this tulip that will last some time.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.17 22:57:00 -
[1562]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Told you guys.
should be 20k sells, 5k buys by monday morning normal person tz (na).
Gratz to those who listened, rofl at those who didnt get out at 80k/90k, enjoy getting a quarter of that.
I have yet to see one iota of evidence from you. You're nothing, but hot air and retcons.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.17 23:04:00 -
[1563]
Originally by: Terrible Karma I have yet to see one iota of evidence from you. You're nothing, but hot air and retcons.
Uscared, bro? You sound scared. Ride it right to the bottom for all I care. More schadenfreude for me.
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.07.17 23:14:00 -
[1564]
Originally by: Herman Klaus What better way to hurt the Russians taking over the north than to crash the reason they're there. If the Tech moons seem worthless then NC leave with a smug grim on their faces.
Though I agree (several posts ago), they're only going to seem worthless right now. Unless something else happens to keep this price point, its definitely not going to end up or stay at the pre-Dominion level.
Quote: Still doesn't get round the fact that the moons don't pump out enough to satisfy daily demand. Therefore once all the speculation holders get out of Tech then it can only go back up. Its gonna be a slow burner, but it'll be back over 100k by Sept.
As MMarlon (and Akita) mentioned previously, there are still the old stockpiles to go through, from the pre-Dominion days. I don't remember what the numbers are but that data is not as important.
What will be more important (short-term) is who sold all those stocks. I don't suppose someone with the appropriate transaction history would be willing to supply a 'mile high' overview? (yes, I know that's like asking for blood from a stone, but ya never know.)
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.17 23:56:00 -
[1565]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Terrible Karma I have yet to see one iota of evidence from you. You're nothing, but hot air and retcons.
Uscared, bro? You sound scared. Ride it right to the bottom for all I care. More schadenfreude for me.
Yup, lots of hot air and wanna be internet tough guy. Tc could fall to 100 isk pu and all that forum spam you're generating will still be useless noise.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.18 00:00:00 -
[1566]
Originally by: Alain Kinsella
Originally by: Herman Klaus What better way to hurt the Russians taking over the north than to crash the reason they're there. If the Tech moons seem worthless then NC leave with a smug grim on their faces.
Though I agree (several posts ago), they're only going to seem worthless right now. Unless something else happens to keep this price point, its definitely not going to end up or stay at the pre-Dominion level.
Quote: Still doesn't get round the fact that the moons don't pump out enough to satisfy daily demand. Therefore once all the speculation holders get out of Tech then it can only go back up. Its gonna be a slow burner, but it'll be back over 100k by Sept.
As MMarlon (and Akita) mentioned previously, there are still the old stockpiles to go through, from the pre-Dominion days. I don't remember what the numbers are but that data is not as important.
What will be more important (short-term) is who sold all those stocks. I don't suppose someone with the appropriate transaction history would be willing to supply a 'mile high' overview? (yes, I know that's like asking for blood from a stone, but ya never know.)
I'd also be interested in hearing from anyone who knows just how big those stockpiles are. Akita gave a range previously, but it was basically anywhere from not much to couple years supply.
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.07.18 05:14:00 -
[1567]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Terrible Karma I have yet to see one iota of evidence from you. You're nothing, but hot air and retcons.
Uscared, bro? You sound scared. Ride it right to the bottom for all I care. More schadenfreude for me.
Elise, you're such a contradicting so and so. I can bet you're buying up Tc like a crazy person right now. As you know full well Akita is right and it'll just bounce back.
Bounce back like Alan Partridge (possibly wasted English humour)
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.07.18 16:40:00 -
[1568]
Without changes to the distribution/production chain it can only go up again.
That's demonstrated fact.
Currently we are (imo) seeing a combination of expansion Tc tweak scare, panic selling & manipulation.
In that order.
It's pretty impossible to predict how far down those forces combined will drive down the price (or indeed how long it will take) before Tc starts going up again.
Stockpiles (of all of the above) *might* be large enough to keep it keep going down until the winter expansion - But I doubt it.
I guess that 3-4 weeks before the winter expansion hits we'll start seeing some "expansion Tc tweak scare" sells again (as we did this expansion) - If the current stockpiles are large enough to prevent Tc from rebounding before then, prices will definitely get hurt pretty bad.
But personally I think it'll start rebounding long before that - I could be wrong though. But only on the timing of it.
Personally I'm still holding on - And I'm pretty ambivalent with regards to what to root for price direction wise.
On one hand I wan't my stock to improve in value, on the other hand, I want more (at a cheap price )
In the mean time I might go and hedge with some Ice
BIG Lottery |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.18 16:48:00 -
[1569]
I wasn't even buying actually, just being a **** for the sake of being a ****.
If I had an extra couple 100b, I'd just buy bulk from WN at 80% of sell price, sell it properly, and save everyone a lot of grief (as well as get rich as ****).
Making multiple 100k stacks and waiting is hard, amirite?
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.19 20:39:00 -
[1570]
Edited by: Akita T on 19/07/2011 20:47:14
Originally by: TornSoul Without changes to the distribution/production chain it can only go up again.
And the changes to the distribution/production chain could happen as early as this winter, or at worst, next summer. The big question is : what will come first - the "nerf", or the stockpile depletion ? The smaller question is : how big will the "nerf" be ?
Either way, confidence was shaken, and confidence is what made prices go up so much and so soon before stockpile exhaustion, delaying the exhaustion of the stockpiles while prices were up. If we're lucky enough, the current panic will make prices drop enough to stimulate a flurry of consumption, making the stockpiles that are in "shaky" hands deplete quite a while before the nerf, enabling a second big technetium profit wave.
The best time for the big profit wave will most likely be between the winter and the summer expansion IF no nerf comes in the winter expansion (or if the nerf is minor).
P.S. Meanwhile, hop on the gravy train of neodymium for as long as the tech slump lasts _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.07.19 22:15:00 -
[1571]
Edited by: Herman Klaus on 19/07/2011 22:23:36
Originally by: Akita T P.S. Meanwhile, hop on the gravy train of neodymium for as long as the tech slump lasts
Although your intent is clear it's also a good call. Neo will hit 35k+ in no time. There is only a few billion ISK worth below 30k. Once that's bought up it jumps up into the 40's.
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2011.07.19 23:39:00 -
[1572]
Originally by: Herman Klaus Edited by: Herman Klaus on 19/07/2011 22:23:36
Originally by: Akita T P.S. Meanwhile, hop on the gravy train of neodymium for as long as the tech slump lasts
Although your intent is clear it's also a good call. Neo will hit 35k+ in no time. There is only a few billion ISK worth below 30k. Once that's bought up it jumps up into the 40's.
I had thought about clearing out the sub-24 stuff last night, couldn't decide and figured I'd check again in the morning.
Welp.
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Gillaboo
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Posted - 2011.07.20 00:02:00 -
[1573]
And hey, if that rumoured "Hulkageddon" over in C&P ever materializes as more than the ramblings of a few keeners, who knows how far and how high that glittering Neo will go... .
Ah, summer... with the grubby smell of piracy and freshly refined Neo in the air, what could go wrong? ---------------------------------------------
"MONOCLE-FREE" and Proud Of It !!!!!
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
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Posted - 2011.07.20 00:11:00 -
[1574]
Originally by: Gillaboo And hey, if that rumoured "Hulkageddon" over in C&P ever materializes as more than the ramblings of a few keeners, who knows how far and how high that glittering Neo will go... .
Ah, summer... with the grubby smell of piracy and freshly refined Neo in the air, what could go wrong?
Hulkageddon would be all the more entertaining with the recent rise in Crystalline Carbonide. I mean, I dunno how much of that stuff goes into a hulk, but price rise is a price rise, right?
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Gillaboo
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Posted - 2011.07.20 01:10:00 -
[1575]
Very entertaining... and yes, a substantial amount of Crystalline Carbonide goes into each HULK... and various other T2 ships, to be perfectly honest.
Indeed, the autumn months (in the northern hemisphere) could well provide a generous harvest of profit as piracy increases T2 demand and moons continue to change hands.
---------------------------------------------
"MONOCLE-FREE" and Proud Of It !!!!!
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Gillaboo
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Posted - 2011.07.20 02:52:00 -
[1576]
Originally by: Herman Klaus Edited by: Herman Klaus on 19/07/2011 22:23:36
Originally by: Akita T P.S. Meanwhile, hop on the gravy train of neodymium for as long as the tech slump lasts
Although your intent is clear it's also a good call. Neo will hit 35k+ in no time. There is only a few billion ISK worth below 30k. Once that's bought up it jumps up into the 40's.
Looks like Neodymium is well on it's way... I guess the Tech slump continues....
---------------------------------------------
"MONOCLE-FREE" and Proud Of It !!!!!
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.22 23:18:00 -
[1577]
Pfft, it was already rebounding on the 20th, lowest point was on the 19th (even as low as 79k), now it's back over 100k on sell orders... Bleh, I hoped it would panic-crash much more than that. Dang. Curious if the weekend will bring more 0.0 panicky bulk sell orders though... one can still hope _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Natasha Nikolaev
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Posted - 2011.07.25 00:29:00 -
[1578]
Edited by: Natasha Nikolaev on 25/07/2011 00:29:54 So are the russians done sh*tting on tech yet? I stopped watching for a few weeks and came back and saw it was in the 80s and nearly choked on my cheerios.
Too bad I wasn't following it more, could have made a lot of ISK buying the dip
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.25 02:50:00 -
[1579]
It was a relatively short dip, only about 3-4 days of really low prices, with total market volumes not far in excess of normal volumes, so you would have competed with regular buyers and would have spun prices up much faster. Even if you had plenty of ISK, it's doubtful you could have snagged more than whatever was online at those prices from sell orders, and there wasn't THAT much of it there. Still, theoretically, a 5-15 bil ISK profit for 80-120 bil ISK investment would have been possible in a relatively short timespan. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.25 14:31:00 -
[1580]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech. |
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.07.25 17:07:00 -
[1581]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Two months notice? Tech peaked in late May, so you must have posted the sell signal in March. But wait, that link was posted only 7 minutes before. Maybe you meant "investors have had 2 months to figure out that they should have sold in May." When are you going to post the graph showing we should have bought last week?
Thanks for the advance notice you idiot. Next time try posting before everybody already knew what happened.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2011.07.25 17:33:00 -
[1582]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Edited by: Claire Voyant on 25/07/2011 17:18:16
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Two months notice? Tech peaked in late May, so you must have posted the sell signal in March. But wait, that link was posted only 7 minutes before. Maybe you meant "investors have had 2 months to figure out that they should have sold in May." When are you going to post the graph showing we should have bought last week?
Edit: Oh wait, I guess you just did. 80K is a "psychological level." I wonder how you came up with that number? Why not 60K or 100K? Oh yeah, because if you picked one of those you would look like a moron.
Thanks for the advance notice you idiot. Next time try posting before everybody already knew what happened.
Yes, pritty much sumarized view of what is TA all about. VV tech is good, but the results are late. Bring the next kid, please. |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.25 18:18:00 -
[1583]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Edited by: Claire Voyant on 25/07/2011 17:18:16
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Two months notice? Tech peaked in late May, so you must have posted the sell signal in March. But wait, that link was posted only 7 minutes before. Maybe you meant "investors have had 2 months to figure out that they should have sold in May." When are you going to post the graph showing we should have bought last week?
Edit: Oh wait, I guess you just did. 80K is a "psychological level." I wonder how you came up with that number? Why not 60K or 100K? Oh yeah, because if you picked one of those you would look like a moron.
Thanks for the advance notice you idiot. Next time try posting before everybody already knew what happened.
No, you just don't understand. He knew it all along. He just didn't want the 90% of us who will never earn any money to find out.
VV would happily prove to all of us that he's read tech like an open book and made TONS of isk in the process, but that is beneath his station as a 10%'er and massively successful super-human of the economic master-race.
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Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.25 19:03:00 -
[1584]
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 25/07/2011 19:03:49 "tech will go down some amount at some point in the future"
:smugs:
VV is a prime candidate for marketing "sooperseekrit magic rituals" to. Did you send in the cheque to become a Level Four Adept yet? I hear the level four badge is the coolest.
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.25 19:19:00 -
[1585]
Edited by: Nimrod Nemesis on 25/07/2011 19:20:51
Originally by: Elise DarkStar Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 25/07/2011 19:03:49 "tech will go down some amount at some point in the future"
:smugs:
VV is a prime candidate for marketing "sooperseekrit magic rituals" to. Did you send in the cheque to become a Level Four Adept yet? I hear the level four badge is the coolest.
You are laughing now, but I just recently got my decoder ring from the "forex reccomended" box of GENERAL MILLS cereals (and it only took a mere 293 boxes to find it). Amatures and the uninitiated might not understand how this flouresent green decoder ring can help them read the candle-stick graphs, but that isn't really important at all. As we all know, the PARAMOUNT objective here is simply to flaunt our innate ability to say "I told you so," to the pathetic sub-humans who insist on labeling our FOOL-PROOF investments as "gambling," when we all know that our SCIENTIFIC-SOCIOLOGICAL-PSYCOLOGICALLY-PROVEN methods are no less predictable than the very sun-rise that calls us to a new day of fleecing these poor newbs.
o7 my enlightened friend.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.25 19:29:00 -
[1586]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Edited by: Claire Voyant on 25/07/2011 17:18:16
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Two months notice? Tech peaked in late May, so you must have posted the sell signal in March. But wait, that link was posted only 7 minutes before. Maybe you meant "investors have had 2 months to figure out that they should have sold in May." When are you going to post the graph showing we should have bought last week?
Edit: Oh wait, I guess you just did. 80K is a "psychological level." I wonder how you came up with that number? Why not 60K or 100K? Oh yeah, because if you picked one of those you would look like a moron.
Thanks for the advance notice you idiot. Next time try posting before everybody already knew what happened.
Why should I consider you or the other similar class B trolls as anything better than being my liquidity pool? Had Akita or Raw23 or someone worthwhile asked me, I'd have happily told them. They do their homeworks though, so they don't need to be told.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
knanid volatar
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Posted - 2011.07.25 20:31:00 -
[1587]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
You're just a troll
Anyone who asks the question you have asked is too lazy to work it out for themselves
Summarised your post.
Would have asked, but by your own standards that would make me not worthy to ask the question.
How long till you leave now?
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.25 21:09:00 -
[1588]
Originally by: knanid volatar
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
You're just a troll
Anyone who asks the question you have asked is too lazy to work it out for themselves
Summarised your post.
Would have asked, but by your own standards that would make me not worthy to ask the question.
How long till you leave now?
How dare you insiuate that VV is anything but a god-given market prophet?
He has done ABSOLUTELY NOTHING except help us all! I for one can't find enough palm leaves to throw at his feet right now, since he is clearly martying himself of the cross for the entire market community despite CCP's best efforts to silence him.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.25 21:52:00 -
[1589]
Originally by: knanid volatar
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
You're just a troll
Anyone who asks the question you have asked is too lazy to work it out for themselves
Summarised your post.
Would have asked, but by your own standards that would make me not worthy to ask the question.
How long till you leave now?
No, you could have asked like others did, and be told. I did not write courses and articles for 1+ years for none else to hear.
But the negative nannies, no. They won't get anything.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.25 21:56:00 -
[1590]
Exactly!
1+ years of PERFECT 20/20 hind-sight vision! YOU SIMPLY CANNOT DISPUTE THAT!
Seriously, to all the haters: consider who you are dealing with. You're heckling one of the top 10% of humanity here and it's pretty clear that you're in over your financial head. I can only assume at some point VV will use his vast wealth to buy CCP and ban you all. Tread lightly!
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.25 22:42:00 -
[1591]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis Exactly!
1+ years of PERFECT 20/20 hind-sight vision! YOU SIMPLY CANNOT DISPUTE THAT!
Seriously, to all the haters: consider who you are dealing with. You're heckling one of the top 10% of humanity here and it's pretty clear that you're in over your financial head. I can only assume at some point VV will use his vast wealth to buy CCP and ban you all. Tread lightly!
If you bothered reading those threads, you'd have seen that there were anticipations as well (when they did not hurt my own business) but I suppose that wooosh noise is covering them.
Finally, finding decent trading setups is fairly easy but they woe at didactical purpose. To find textbook entries that are evident and easy to use as material you have to wait till the price did its job, these cannot be anticipated. IE in the graph I linked, I'd know it was time to sell at the 2M PB but not *how* price would have exactly picked its way, by giving a further advice (bearish channel). Only after that popped up, the whole example became available.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.25 23:14:00 -
[1592]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis Exactly!
1+ years of PERFECT 20/20 hind-sight vision! YOU SIMPLY CANNOT DISPUTE THAT!
Seriously, to all the haters: consider who you are dealing with. You're heckling one of the top 10% of humanity here and it's pretty clear that you're in over your financial head. I can only assume at some point VV will use his vast wealth to buy CCP and ban you all. Tread lightly!
If you bothered reading those threads, you'd have seen that there were anticipations as well (when they did not hurt my own business) but I suppose that wooosh noise is covering them.
Finally, finding decent trading setups is fairly easy but they woe at didactical purpose. To find textbook entries that are evident and easy to use as material you have to wait till the price did its job, these cannot be anticipated. IE in the graph I linked, I'd know it was time to sell at the 2M PB but not *how* price would have exactly picked its way, by giving a further advice (bearish channel). Only after that popped up, the whole example became available.
I've followed your posting career and I'm well aware of your trend threads. However; nothing you've posted in anticipation was anything more than an educated guess that someone not using your methodology would have made. Feel free to correct this, if you feel i'm not doing you justice, but I don't think you can.
As you have willfully pointed out, graph magic tends to happen after the fact. So you'll have to excuse the vocality of these plebs who are eager to ask why you believe this price-fu has any value here, especially since the system itself (explained by your peers elsewhere) pivots entirely on trends by much larger market players (which makes the whole 10% thing very ironic, since the strategy is quite literally to be a parasite on greater individuals or groups).
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trance atlas
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Posted - 2011.07.25 23:44:00 -
[1593]
When did dub V become ebank?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.26 09:00:00 -
[1594]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 26/07/2011 09:03:50
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
I've followed your posting career and I'm well aware of your trend threads. However; nothing you've posted in anticipation was anything more than an educated guess that someone not using your methodology would have made.Feel free to correct this, if you feel i'm not doing you justice, but I don't think you can.
Both this and the previous other methologies are not "mine". I can't stress enough about the fact I am not advocating any breakthrough invention of mine, I am just using established ways. The early one is so old that its text was hand-written and scanned off some old paper. The later one is what is shown in the 2 finance forum threads I have linked again and again, where a dozen of people posted hundreds of graphs and among them there are tens posted well before the market did what "predicted". I put "predicted" between quotes because it's not voodoo magic but just a statistical projection with success rate > 50%.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
As you have willfully pointed out, graph magic tends to happen after the fact.
No, didactical value graph magic does. Insulated patterns and trades happen all the time but they would be awful examples because if you want to teach something, you have to choose the "blatant examples" that everyone may easily follow, not the "requires 1 year of practice to spot" tricky trades.
Here's a decently RL didactical trade I posted on July 1st and that is going to close today or tomorrow. Here is today's update, I even kept the picture texts in English (forum is in my tongue) so you may easily see how price is reaching the intended take profit (TP) with a noticeable profit of 183 pips. Had I entered in the best spot (I missed it because I rarely look at AUDUSD as I don't like it) I'd have made 388 pips. Of course feel free to browse both that thread and the English version of it to find many other examples.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
... especially since the system itself (explained by your peers elsewhere) pivots entirely on trends by much larger market players (which makes the whole 10% thing very ironic, since the strategy is quite literally to be a parasite on greater individuals or groups).
Of course it is "parasitic"! Any trader including in EvE and including station traders who don't do market manipulation are intermediaries or "parasites". The function of traders is to provide statistical liquidity and to narrow spreads, which is what we really do. The end result is a more optimized market that caters to the "end users" aka i.e. the commodity buyers.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.26 09:43:00 -
[1595]
On one hand, considering the estimated stockpiles and extraction/usage rates, observing that an uncertain magnitude tech nerf was announced for an uncertain moment in the future, the conclusion was that it would eventually have to drop, and it will pick up again soon after - the huge "alleged russian" sell orders were an unknown factor which accelerated it all.
On the other hand, those feelings/trends have been also reflected via TA analysis - what "you guys" seem to forget is that TA is not a fool-proof 100% accurate future prediction method, it's a tool for observing how human behaviour / psychological habits influence the prices in a market, and as such, STATISTICALLY SPEAKING, have a better chance to tell you what's going to happen than just guessing.
It's funny how empirical/inductive reasoning and TA analysis generally agree and are usually fairly accurate (whoever claims 100% accuracy is a fool, whoever claims less than 50% accuracy is useless), yet some guys have nothing to say about it except "ha-ha, you don't know everything" or something to that extent. It doesn't really matter HOW you reach a conclusion, as long as you're more often right than wrong. And then, you have to put your money where your "beliefs" are, otherwise, what's the point.
Me, I've made quite a few good "guesses", and I had my share of bad ones too. However, the good ones brought me a freaking truckload of ISK, while the bad ones only lost me a little. Overall, I'm quite happy with my estimations of probable future prices. How about you guys ?
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.26 11:17:00 -
[1596]
Originally by: Akita T
On one hand, considering the estimated stockpiles and extraction/usage rates, observing that an uncertain magnitude tech nerf was announced for an uncertain moment in the future, the conclusion was that it would eventually have to drop, and it will pick up again soon after - the huge "alleged russian" sell orders were an unknown factor which accelerated it all.
On the other hand, those feelings/trends have been also reflected via TA analysis - what "you guys" seem to forget is that TA is not a fool-proof 100% accurate future prediction method, it's a tool for observing how human behaviour / psychological habits influence the prices in a market, and as such, STATISTICALLY SPEAKING, have a better chance to tell you what's going to happen than just guessing.
It's funny how empirical/inductive reasoning and TA analysis generally agree and are usually fairly accurate (whoever claims 100% accuracy is a fool, whoever claims less than 50% accuracy is useless), yet some guys have nothing to say about it except "ha-ha, you don't know everything" or something to that extent. It doesn't really matter HOW you reach a conclusion, as long as you're more often right than wrong. And then, you have to put your money where your "beliefs" are, otherwise, what's the point.
Me, I've made quite a few good "guesses", and I had my share of bad ones too. However, the good ones brought me a freaking truckload of ISK, while the bad ones only lost me a little. Overall, I'm quite happy with my estimations of probable future prices. How about you guys ?
A few things.
1. Your sucesses are better documented. Wether or not your own posting caused manipulations that lead to further profit has always been debated, but it's clear that your research into the game mechanics has generally yeilded you fruit. That makes sense. You become in tune with actual supply and demand structures. You attempt to read what the market trends will be. Ultimately, you profit from that.
2. I've never seen you simply pop a chart into a post, ignore any and all tertiary factors, and simply draw arbitrary lines along "psychological" boundaries. That makes no sense. To believe that price somehow pivots on invisible psychological boundaries is ludacris. Sure, there are social factors and sometimes the "oh it's dropping below X," comes into play, but pretending these things are more important than an actual understanding of the maket is pure fiction.
3. You're more than happy to admit that in most cases it is literally just luck and good timing. VV insists that every win was a clearly read price movement and that every miss was simply an unpredictable market. That's no better than a magic 8-ball.
VV displays the opposite in all cases and now peddals his "potentially life-changing," strategy to the masses as though it were a new law of thermodynamics. Simply put, it flys in the face of common sense and the lack of evidence he's managed to produce in order to even verify that it's worked for him makes it all the easier for myself and other vocal critics to prod. |
JackStraw56
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Posted - 2011.07.26 11:20:00 -
[1597]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis VV displays the opposite in all cases and now peddals his "potentially life-changing," strategy to the masses as though it were a new law of thermodynamics. Simply put, it flys in the face of common sense and the lack of evidence he's managed to produce in order to even verify that it's worked for him makes it all the easier for myself and other vocal critics to prod.
Welcome to technical analysis. The epitome of pseudoscience. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.26 11:59:00 -
[1598]
Edited by: Akita T on 26/07/2011 12:03:47
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis [...][hugesnip][...] You're more than happy to admit that in most cases it is literally just luck and good timing. VV insists that every win was a clearly read price movement and that every miss was simply an unpredictable market. That's no better than a magic 8-ball. VV displays the opposite in all cases and now peddals his "potentially life-changing," strategy to the masses as though it were a new law of thermodynamics. Simply put, it flys in the face of common sense and the lack of evidence he's managed to produce in order to even verify that it's worked for him makes it all the easier for myself and other vocal critics to prod.
Me, personally, I view TA as something that's better than just guessing but worse than certitude - how much better than guessing, I don't want to even gander a guess. If memory serves right, VV only claimed about 70% (or was it 80%) accuracy tops - as, in literally, VV wrote those exact words down.
If you choose to interpret/read VV's usual postings the way you stated just now, then yeah, your displeasure is justified. But what if you read it with far too little lenience and maybe just a tad bit out of context ? Sure, VV could also be a bit more forthcoming and plaster far more "disclaimers" all around, but meh.
EDIT : Linkage - not the thread/post I was talking about earlier, but one that makes VV's position a bit clearer. In particular post #16 from there. |
Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
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Posted - 2011.07.26 12:00:00 -
[1599]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis VV displays the opposite in all cases and now peddals his "potentially life-changing," strategy to the masses as though it were a new law of thermodynamics. Simply put, it flys in the face of common sense and the lack of evidence he's managed to produce in order to even verify that it's worked for him makes it all the easier for myself and other vocal critics to prod.
I remember the nitrogen isotopes discussion, he said he had invested just a couple of billion ISK... That's rather paltry and considering it was the hot item of the day it goes a bit to show how little ISK he's got.
It's not hard to make good margins if all you do is trade a nickel here, a nickel there. |
Elise DarkStar
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Posted - 2011.07.26 13:08:00 -
[1600]
I'm all for TA in the sense of recognizing loose psychological patterns in market behavior. You don't make money on fundamentals, you make it on the psychology. I personally don't believe in its "darkroom" application, but if that's what people want to do, then fine. However, I am against VV's unsubstantiated proselytizing because it's ****ing annoying. |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.26 14:36:00 -
[1601]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
1. Your sucesses are better documented. Wether or not your own posting caused manipulations that lead to further profit has always been debated, but it's clear that your research into the game mechanics has generally yeilded you fruit. That makes sense. You become in tune with actual supply and demand structures. You attempt to read what the market trends will be. Ultimately, you profit from that.
Akita T picks the big hot things with accurate and time + knowledge intensive research, that end up having the liquidity (large players join in) and trending strength that in the end cause the markets to follow her predictions. As I posted many times (even the thread Akita linked above iirc), funamental analysis - when possible - yields indeed the best results.
Here are the catches:
a) As you may find in old posts me and Shar stayed out of Technetium (due to our own "ethical" reasons). Therefore THE big hot thing went past us (no problem with me).
b) In RL - where I actually trade - unless you are an institution and can afford an army of analysts, expensive structures, long timeframes (read: large capital) you cannot really trade with fundamental analysis. T.A. and HFT are the "next best" choices. You trade less knowledge, higher failure rate and to be "parasitic" with the ability to afford to play along with the big guys. When I switch over to EvE, I tend to have little time and am "drained" by RL trading enough to not care to spend long hours in EvE fundamentals research. However I may afford to trade 10+ markets at a time due to T.A. being so versatile and "portable". In the end, fundamental trading is more for the market makers, T.A. for "just traders".
c) As I said above, Akita T correctly goes to follow the Big Hot Thing, while I am academically interested in the general markets study and pick secondary or even tertiary markets just because they exhibit interesting patterns and stuff. These markets are way less solid and easily manipulated.
I did some "documenting" trades early in my other thread and then I got warned that several big muscle guys were beating the blood off those who followed them. The muscle guys read the analysis and then manipulated those markets to go against the predictions and take profit in the face of the others. Then they'd abandon the market and it resumed its "natural" course but at the expense of the learners and I could not let it happen. So I started following more solid markets like Isotopes and greatly reduced anticipations. You may even find records of me stating these same things in the past.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis You become in tune with actual supply and demand structures. You attempt to read what the market trends will be. Ultimately, you profit from that.
I do the same stuff, just in other ways. I used interpolations, moving averages and some use regression channels etc. that are widely used in RL industry with none objecting to it. When I worked for automotive production lines, a colleague of mine created a robot operated industrial laser plus integrated QA tests that heavily used interpolations, moving averages, filters etc. In the end his control sofware shown onscreen something that could be confused for a trading platform, it works at creating car brake pedals since 2 years ago. A finance (non scammy) technical analyst might do the same operations, with the same formulas, on similar pseudo-random data and get similar functioning results. The robot "chart voodoo" achieved 2 digits precision, a T.A. analysis may achieve 4 digits precision yet people would blindly trust the former and shun the latter.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.26 14:55:00 -
[1602]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 26/07/2011 15:01:34
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis 2. I've never seen you simply pop a chart into a post, ignore any and all tertiary factors, and simply draw arbitrary lines along "psychological" boundaries. That makes no sense. To believe that price somehow pivots on invisible psychological boundaries is ludacris. Sure, there are social factors and sometimes the "oh it's dropping below X," comes into play, but pretending these things are more important than an actual understanding of the maket is pure fiction.
It's not pure fiction, it's just very tangible price swings tops and bottoms. When I check a new market out I draw lines (it's NOT needed, in theory all you need is to be practiced enough to visually recognize the swings). The swings by our human nature tend to sit between round numbers, because WE reason in decimal notation and are lazy to type random numbers. Therefore it's quite common to finish drawing the swing lines and then notice they almost perfectly match with the nearby round number. In the case of Tech, I drawn a 80K RN, posted the graph and *then* noticed how a weekly line is perfectly sitting at 100k. I did not even notice it (so I did not recolor it in yellow), yet it happened on my face. Who am I, to tell a market not to go where it wants, including round numbers? Round numbers due to OUR mentality act as natural price magnets and me or you can't do a thing to make it not happen.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
3. You're more than happy to admit that in most cases it is literally just luck and good timing. VV insists that every win was a clearly read price movement and that every miss was simply an unpredictable market.
I don't remember having "misses" and I don't believe in luck. Just in hard work and hard training and long practice. In RL instead I DO have misses (I wish I had them in EvE and not in RL ) but in order to survive as a trader you MUST have a resilient mentality able to just consider the loss as business cost and then move on without looking back. Else you are psychologically DEAD - see my online course videos.
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
VV displays the opposite in all cases and now peddals his "potentially life-changing," strategy to the masses as though it were a new law of thermodynamics. Simply put, it flys in the face of common sense and the lack of evidence he's managed to produce in order to even verify that it's worked for him makes it all the easier for myself and other vocal critics to prod.
For all the evidence you want, go and check the RL trading threads I linked several times. Also, I indeed "sinned" in the amount of enthusiasm I put into it.
Why? Because as perma job-less guy I was one of millions with no future and now I found out a way to get out of such situation and want all those like me to know that it is hard but is possible to get out of the tunnel. It takes much effort, 6 intensive months at a minimum learning curve but it *can* be done and I want everyone possibly in a bad RL situation to know, so they get hope.
Quote:
I remember the nitrogen isotopes discussion, he said he had invested just a couple of billion ISK... That's rather paltry and considering it was the hot item of the day it goes a bit to show how little ISK he's got.
I did not put being e-rich as my target, I prefer devoting all my energies into RL trading since it's what feeds me and I assure you that it adsorbs all my energies already. I trade in game just some billions because it's all what I need to prove I was right. RL traders tend to work on % of account, if you make 4%, it's 4% regardless of capital. |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.26 17:47:00 -
[1603]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha I did some "documenting" trades early in my other thread and then I got warned that several big muscle guys were beating the blood off those who followed them. The muscle guys read the analysis and then manipulated those markets to go against the predictions and take profit in the face of the others.
lolwhat?
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I do the same stuff, just in other ways. I used interpolations, moving averages and some use regression channels etc. that are widely used in RL industry with none objecting to it. When I worked for automotive production lines, a colleague of mine created a robot operated industrial laser plus integrated QA tests that heavily used interpolations, moving averages, filters etc. In the end his control sofware shown onscreen something that could be confused for a trading platform, it works at creating car brake pedals since 2 years ago. A finance (non scammy) technical analyst might do the same operations, with the same formulas, on similar pseudo-random data and get similar functioning results. The robot "chart voodoo" achieved 2 digits precision, a T.A. analysis may achieve 4 digits precision yet people would blindly trust the former and shun the latter.
I'm really loving these tangents. No, I wouldn't trust a pattern-seeking robot either.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha It's not pure fiction, it's just very tangible price swings tops and bottoms. When I check a new market out I draw lines (it's NOT needed, in theory all you need is to be practiced enough to visually recognize the swings). The swings by our human nature tend to sit between round numbers, because WE reason in decimal notation and are lazy to type random numbers. Therefore it's quite common to finish drawing the swing lines and then notice they almost perfectly match with the nearby round number. In the case of Tech, I drawn a 80K RN, posted the graph and *then* noticed how a weekly line is perfectly sitting at 100k. I did not even notice it (so I did not recolor it in yellow), yet it happened on my face. Who am I, to tell a market not to go where it wants, including round numbers? Round numbers due to OUR mentality act as natural price magnets and me or you can't do a thing to make it not happen.
I know you're deep into this, but can you not understand your "this is how it works," approach is not getting you anywhere? The critique isn't "how do your lines work/what do they mean." The critique is "your lines are completely bogus/arbitrary hopes for a familiar pattern." I'm sure round numbers do effect the psyche of some/many traders aswell, but here again you have nothing but your word. If you want to posit this in a serious manner, link to an academic study indicating the effect of round numbers, show a statistically significant number of graphs where rebounds occured on whole numbers, or something similar. Basically: improve your source texts or stop citing these as universal laws. They are your opinions at this point, nothing more.
I'm running out of post-length so to sum the rest of it up: If you honestly went from rags to riches on this gambling method, good for you. I honestly love to hear a good story like that. But, there's very little to back up your claims here. You need citation out the wazoo (and no, neither your website nor the links there-in have sufficient citation for the claims you have made) or you're literally just describing another way to pull the handle on a slot machine. Had you said "it is my opinion that these numbers scare buyers/sellers and will affect price thusly," no problem. You're just, pushing an opinion with (presumably) some insight into the situation.
Had any of this looked like an opinion piece i'd never have posted here but, once again your attempt to gussy it up to academic levels without an equal share of empirical evidence just invites criticism.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.26 18:11:00 -
[1604]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
I'm really loving these tangents. No, I wouldn't trust a pattern-seeking robot either.
If you live in the USA you are probably driving a car whose braking depends on a pedal made and tested by that "TA robot".
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
I know you're deep into this, but can you not understand your "this is how it works," approach is not getting you anywhere? The critique isn't "how do your lines work/what do they mean." The critique is "your lines are completely bogus/arbitrary hopes for a familiar pattern."
You have just to bother and go check the threads I linked several times to see all the examples you ever wanted. I did not invent any of this, I don't claim ANY credit on this.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
|
Posted - 2011.07.26 18:46:00 -
[1605]
Edited by: Nimrod Nemesis on 26/07/2011 18:45:55
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
I'm really loving these tangents. No, I wouldn't trust a pattern-seeking robot either.
If you live in the USA you are probably driving a car whose braking depends on a pedal made and tested by that "TA robot".
Perhaps I should have been more clear: I wouldn't trust it to make run market analysis in a meaningful way. As you've gone out of your way to point out: the market is a social construct, inherently human, and thus prone to unpredictable behavior.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
I know you're deep into this, but can you not understand your "this is how it works," approach is not getting you anywhere? The critique isn't "how do your lines work/what do they mean." The critique is "your lines are completely bogus/arbitrary hopes for a familiar pattern."
You have just to bother and go check the threads I linked several times to see all the examples you ever wanted. I did not invent any of this, I don't claim ANY credit on this.
I have bothered to check your links and I see the examples given, but they're just that: examples. Were I to show you two dozen calendar days when it rained and explained to you that since each of my example days began with me tying my shoes, would you assume that to be a corollary? I would certainly hope not. I would hope that you would protest and insist that I provide some more convincing evidence that there was a relationship there.
Regardless of the fact you did not come up with these methodologies, you're making a concerted effort to spread them and expound upon them without providing compelling arguments as to why they are sound, logical observations. Once again, i'm asking you to take an academic approach, provide something other than meaningless "I can circle here where the price did what I thought it was going to do," extrapolations. I've got volumes of economic texts to draw on within my library, so feel free to be as verbose as you like.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.07.26 19:37:00 -
[1606]
Edited by: Akita T on 26/07/2011 19:38:45
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis Perhaps I should have been more clear: I wouldn't trust it to make run market analysis in a meaningful way. As you've gone out of your way to point out: the market is a social construct, inherently human, and thus prone to unpredictable behavior.
Asimov would at least jokingly (and fictionally) disagree : Psychohistory
"[...]the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events[...]" _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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JackStraw56
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Posted - 2011.07.26 20:00:00 -
[1607]
The hand waving is reaching comical levels in this thread
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.26 20:03:00 -
[1608]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 26/07/2011 19:38:45
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis Perhaps I should have been more clear: I wouldn't trust it to make run market analysis in a meaningful way. As you've gone out of your way to point out: the market is a social construct, inherently human, and thus prone to unpredictable behavior.
Asimov would at least jokingly (and fictionally) disagree : Psychohistory
"[...]the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events[...]"
One of my favorite authors. And yeah, the Foundation series connection isn't lost on me here. =) Very good books.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.27 07:53:00 -
[1609]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 27/07/2011 07:56:04
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
Perhaps I should have been more clear: I wouldn't trust it to make run market analysis in a meaningful way. As you've gone out of your way to point out: the market is a social construct, inherently human, and thus prone to unpredictable behavior.
Oh, I wouldn't either. The robot is performing a TA of highly variable signals but with a "squiggly lines" (i.e. moving averages and so on) approach that tends to underperform when applied to RL markets (it works in old style markets like in EvE and we have it in the form of the in game moving averages and Donchian channel). I was just pointing out that there's no voodoo involved anywhere, the same formulas and plotting are used. Oh, the robot also "found out" a production process higher frequency "price levels" where measured values kept falling to, in a pseudo - Gaussian way.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I have bothered to check your links and I see the examples given, but they're just that: examples. Were I to show you two dozen calendar days when it rained and explained to you that since each of my example days began with me tying my shoes, would you assume that to be a corollary?
Yeah but what about having posts days or even weeks old being continuously confirmed in the future? Since you want to stay scientific what is the chance of guessing a coin flip for say 10 times in a row? And guessing a trade is a far less than 50% probability deal, it's a 10% deal (= 90% trading coin tosses are wrong). Feel free to search posts by "fxgroup" (the specific method author) and find how many he predicted wrong. I think one in his whole posting history on 2 different forums.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Regardless of the fact you did not come up with these methodologies, you're making a concerted effort to spread them and expound upon them without providing compelling arguments as to why they are sound, logical observations. Once again, i'm asking you to take an academic approach, provide something other than meaningless "I can circle here where the price did what I thought it was going to do," extrapolations. I've got volumes of economic texts to draw on within my library, so feel free to be as verbose as you like.
I took 3 years of learning in hundreds of books and websites and courses to accrue all the concepts I should use to explain it all. I could spend tens of pages yet your prejudice would just push them away. In the end if you want to prove to yourself if something works or not, you have to sit down like any artisan and start DOING. But you won't because the blinders are too thick, and going the extra mile is :effort: .
Anyway I will give the starting point, where most is explained: Martin Pring books, expecially the one called "On Price Patterns". The most famous "in practice adopter" of that text is called James16 and in the years he teached to the thousands and for free (unless you really want to join a private forum of his, not needed). Here's his stuff. Since you say you are OK at verbose, enjoy his 6624 pages and growing thread.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.27 15:29:00 -
[1610]
Edited by: Nimrod Nemesis on 27/07/2011 15:29:57 I give up. You're clearly convinced someone rambling in a forum with illustrated chart pics is citation enough. I can only inform you that is simply not the case. All you have proven here is that you're parroting something another forum-warrior before you has done. You can't verify his work to be logical or empirically sound. You can't verify your own work as such. I'm sure at some level you're ever-so-slightly mitigating risk by familiarizing yourselves with a market, but there is absolutely nothing there to suggest you're doing more than gambling like everyone else.
Ironically, such criticisms aren't even broached on over at the forexfactory, but I guess they'd have a hard time doing business without these people. vOv
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.27 18:24:00 -
[1611]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 27/07/2011 18:24:26
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis Edited by: Nimrod Nemesis on 27/07/2011 15:29:57 I give up. You're clearly convinced someone rambling in a forum with illustrated chart pics is citation enough. I can only inform you that is simply not the case. All you have proven here is that you're parroting something another forum-warrior before you has done. You can't verify his work to be logical or empirically sound. You can't verify your own work as such. I'm sure at some level you're ever-so-slightly mitigating risk by familiarizing yourselves with a market, but there is absolutely nothing there to suggest you're doing more than gambling like everyone else.
Ironically, such criticisms aren't even broached on over at the forexfactory, but I guess they'd have a hard time doing business without these people. vOv
I even mentioned you one book that describes the whole thing, but I suppose your own request about literature was a farce, eh?
Ah, what about YOU prove those guys on FF wrong with your solid arguments?
Last but not least, the very fact I am posting here is because I can pay my 5 yearly subs (plus 1 on WAR and 3 on Istaria). How do I pay them since I am unemployed since Feb 2011? Let me give you an hint: because I trade and oddly enough, it earns me enough to live and pay a total of 9 subs on 3 MMOs.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.27 21:45:00 -
[1612]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I even mentioned you one book that describes the whole thing, but I suppose your own request about literature was a farce, eh?
Ah, what about YOU prove those guys on FF wrong with your solid arguments?
Last but not least, the very fact I am posting here is because I can pay my 5 yearly subs (plus 1 on WAR and 3 on Istaria). How do I pay them since I am unemployed since Feb 2011? Let me give you an hint: because I trade and oddly enough, it earns me enough to live and pay a total of 9 subs on 3 MMOs.
1. Literature != crackpot forum 2. You want me to disprove you now? Ha, that's rich. I suppose you cba to do any proving then? 3. You have absolutely no way to verify the validity of that statement, so it's just more hurf blurf.
/derp
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.07.27 22:49:00 -
[1613]
Now that you two have spent the better part of two pages twisting each others panties off topic of the actual thread can you find another thread to throw **** at each other in? The topic is Technetium and the market it lives in. Not who has done research or no research or who is guessing as to not guessing using solid analytical skills. The point is, and no offense, VV you are leaving EVE, you are allowing yourself to be goded in to an argument with someone who's character is named Nimrod... By falling in to this argument you are reducing anything you have brought to EVE and diminish the reputation you leave behind. Chalk it up to immaturity, harassment, or plain stupidity, but walk away and be the bigger person both in this debate and in your EVE career if that is what you truly intend to do. Thank you and good luck with your future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Me
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Darth Tickles
Origin. Black Legion.
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Posted - 2011.07.27 22:54:00 -
[1614]
Originally by: Clambumper June Now that you two have spent...
Shut your hore mouth.
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.07.28 00:42:00 -
[1615]
Originally by: Darth Tickles
Originally by: Clambumper June Now that you two have spent...
Shut your hore mouth.
Learn to spell. A hint if you are bad at it type it in MS Word first and paste here. Otherwise, take your third grade education back to where you belong.
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trance atlas
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Posted - 2011.07.28 01:17:00 -
[1616]
Originally by: Clambumper June
Originally by: Darth Tickles
Originally by: Clambumper June Now that you two have spent...
Shut your hore mouth.
Learn to spell. A hint if you are bad at it type it in MS Word first and paste here. Otherwise, take your third grade education back to where you belong.
Speaking of a 3rd grade education who does not have anything better than ie.
Because firefox has built in spellcheck,
Also ***** might be blocked
If it's not he would have got +rep instead of none for pg rated burns
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trance atlas
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Posted - 2011.07.28 01:24:00 -
[1617]
Edited by: trance atlas on 28/07/2011 01:25:41 Misfire
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Darth Tickles
Origin. Black Legion.
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Posted - 2011.07.28 01:38:00 -
[1618]
***** is blocked
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Clambumper June
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Posted - 2011.07.28 02:22:00 -
[1619]
Considering we have floundered from the original topic I will make an attempt to get us back on it. I would be very interested to get Akita's view on the fact that Tech average sale value for the last 5 days has been six figures. Are we looking at a slow rebound or are there indicators that this is being held up falsely? I noticed the price is going down a marginal 200 to 300 isk per day on average. The quantity outlet is still on par to the average. I also noticed that we are not looking at too many orders in the 102K range, but they constantly being replaced as they disappear. Once those are gone though there are very few in the 103K and up. Will we get to those orders or will prices continually on the small average we are seeing now? Like I said this is an attempt to get us back on topic and I look forward to getting you opinion on this.
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.28 03:30:00 -
[1620]
As you can see in my candlestick graph, the wax is going everywhere at the moment, but the wick still seems to be lit. The fluid patterns in the drippage signal a bullish longterm, but there is little indicator of short-term waxy build-up that could predict immidiate results. Given the silver inherently holding the candle aloft we can only assume that no matter what happens there will be players with shiny and lots of envious players without said shiny.
I will be holding a seminar on the something awful forums using this breakthrough TA methodology in the near future. You can also look forward to a subscription based website where I will offer private tutoring in my art, as well as a series of books entitled "What nobody will sell you because it's just too valuable." Expect book one to be in stores SoonÖ.
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Jerry Pepridge
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Posted - 2011.07.28 05:14:00 -
[1621]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis As you can see in my candlestick graph, the wax is going everywhere at the moment, but the wick still seems to be lit. The fluid patterns in the drippage signal a bullish longterm, but there is little indicator of short-term waxy build-up that could predict immidiate results. Given the silver inherently holding the candle aloft we can only assume that no matter what happens there will be players with shiny and lots of envious players without said shiny.
I will be holding a seminar on the something awful forums using this breakthrough TA methodology in the near future. You can also look forward to a subscription based website where I will offer private tutoring in my art, as well as a series of books entitled "What nobody will sell you because it's just too valuable." Expect book one to be in stores SoonÖ.
the man is a visionary.
you sir have been approved to troll these forums. _________________________________________________
Misty McGinnity Doesn't have an iPhone. |
TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.07.28 08:19:00 -
[1622]
Originally by: Clambumper June Are we looking at a slow rebound or are there indicators that this is being held up falsely? I noticed the price is going down a marginal 200 to 300 isk per day on average. The quantity outlet is still on par to the average. I also noticed that we are not looking at too many orders in the 102K range, but they constantly being replaced as they disappear. Once those are gone though there are very few in the 103K and up. Will we get to those orders or will prices continually on the small average we are seeing now?
FWIW :
I'll ungalantly refer to my own post 1568 (10 days old).
"Currently we are (imo) seeing a combination of expansion Tc tweak scare, panic selling & manipulation."
I think most of the tweak scare sellers are gone (for now). I think close to all panic sellers are gone.
This has stopped the rapid decline in Tc prices.
The manipulators are still in there and at it - I.e. all the constantly replaced sell orders (they are *cleverly*, aka slowly, cashing out now)
All of the above leads to a fairly steady price (for the moment)
----------
"But personally I think it'll start rebounding long before that - I could be wrong though. But only on the timing of it."
Turns out I *was* wrong - On the timing of it, that is. But doubly wrong, as I actually thought I was perhaps being a bit too optimistic (compared to everyone else it seemed). It has already rebounded (as in stopped the death spiral) at least a couple of weeks before I thought it would start to flatten out.
My conclusion is that the Tc stockpiles definitely are not what they used to be. Or, that the (large) stockholders have even more ice in their veins than I thought.
Ofc it's probably a combination of the two, but personally I've downgraded my "gut feeling" of how large the Tc stockpiles are out there.
---------
The upshot of all this is that (imo) Tc prices will reach old heights far faster than anyone thought (or at least posted here about).
Once the manipulators (or technically speculators now) are done cashing in, the growth of Tc prices will "return to normal" again.
---------
And dangnabbit... This is the 2nd time a slump has not gone all the way down to my personal "buy more stock" price point.
BIG Lottery |
Wyke Mossari
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.07.28 09:14:00 -
[1623]
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.28 10:41:00 -
[1624]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
I have read those texts, Black Swans only affect those who approach the profession without the basic safeguards every modern broker provides for free.
In fact you always setup the trade to cover the worst case scenario by using what's called money and risk management. Also, even in case price was completely random, all you have to do is to take your own medicine and read "Birds watching in lion country" where an approach to complete random pricing is teached.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.28 15:22:00 -
[1625]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha basic safeguards every modern broker provides for free.
Hahahahaha, no... oh **** are you serious?
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Also, even in case price was completely random, all you have to do is to take your own medicine and read "Birds watching in lion country" where an approach to complete random pricing is teached.
I am really curious to know how he defines "random." lol
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente
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Posted - 2011.07.28 17:52:00 -
[1626]
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 28/07/2011 17:53:00
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
I have read those texts, Black Swans only affect those who approach the profession without the basic safeguards every modern broker provides for free.
In fact you always setup the trade to cover the worst case scenario by using what's called money and risk management. Also, even in case price was completely random, all you have to do is to take your own medicine and read "Birds watching in lion country" where an approach to complete random pricing is teached.
That seems to a vanity published eBook, do you really believe it carries any weight against the Black Swan?
The (London) Sunday Times called the Black Swan one of the dozen most important book of modern times. Taleb has been called one of the world's top intellectuals by a Nobel Laureate, lauded by the World Economic conference where he predicted the bankers were leading the world in the current financial predicament years before it happened. Freedman said the refutation of Taleb were 'unconvincing'. He debated the topic of randomness with Mandelbrot. Yes THE Mandelbrot.
I do not think you have grasped the point Taleb is making.
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.28 18:54:00 -
[1627]
I think you'll find VV's take on what constitutes a healthy academic approach to economics is loose at best. He has a very dogmatic viewpoint of his present methodology and I don't think any logical arguments are going to win him over. Sufficed to say i'm sure he'll just chock it up to our "loosing," mentality and inability to read into those laborious graphs his mentors have spawned over the years.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.07.28 18:59:00 -
[1628]
Guys please...
Lets not get this wonderful thread locked - it's way way off-topic... One or two (or even a handful of) posts here and there doesn't hurt (imo), but page upon page... is the way to locked-doom...
BIG Lottery |
Darth Tickles
Origin. Black Legion.
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Posted - 2011.07.28 19:02:00 -
[1629]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis I think you'll find VV's take on what constitutes a healthy academic approach to economics is loose at best. He has a very dogmatic viewpoint of his present methodology and I don't think any logical arguments are going to win him over. Sufficed to say i'm sure he'll just chock it up to our "loosing," mentality and inability to read into those laborious graphs his mentors have spawned over the years.
Only The Initiated can grasp the full majesty of The Secret Knowledge.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2011.07.28 19:07:00 -
[1630]
Continue please, all of you. This is better than EVE itself, had posted this forum link to my friends, we laugh for days. Some may even install the client, just to see what's this game all about.
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Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr Royal Amarr Institute
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Posted - 2011.07.28 23:52:00 -
[1631]
I believe this is the part where I declare victory over the dragon VV.
GF o7o7
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.29 09:09:00 -
[1632]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 29/07/2011 09:12:34
Originally by: Wyke Mossari That seems to a vanity published eBook, do you really believe it carries any weight against the Black Swan?
The (London) Sunday Times called the Black Swan one of the dozen most important book of modern times. Taleb has been called one of the world's top intellectuals by a Nobel Laureate, lauded by the World Economic conference where he predicted the bankers were leading the world in the current financial predicament years before it happened. Freedman said the refutation of Taleb were 'unconvincing'. He debated the topic of randomness with Mandelbrot. Yes THE Mandelbrot.
I do not think you have grasped the point Taleb is making.
It's not a vanity e-book, in fact the first edition(s) were not meant to be e-books at all. Also, vanity e-books don't tend to last more than one edition. Like Taleb's work, BWILC has been considered quite "out of the conventions" as well.
I don't have particular objections (if any) vs Taleb, but bringing his texts in this argument is irrelevant. We are not talking about things that could go wrong, because a proper trade setup has provision for the "all stars aligned bad => total loss" scenario. In the worst case I lose 2% of my worker account. And so?
Originally by: Darth Tickles
Only The Initiated can grasp the full majesty of The Secret Knowledge.
No, it's as easy to grasp as is working with wood to make forniture. Like wood working once you get it, then you have to put in a lot of practice. Still, the secret knowledge involves hard things like "buy low, sell high", "if today there are many sellers don't buy" and that's it.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.07.29 09:38:00 -
[1633]
Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis I believe this is the part where I declare victory over the dragon VV.
GF o7o7
This is the part where I post the last update to my RL trade.
In your honor, I posted the trade conclusion over there, both in Italian and English so everyone can see.
For the laziest, here's how it went:
Finally, since the concept seems to have wooooshed again and again, many of the posted works are not "just" graphs. Some (like me) indeed have to use a separate, non graphical broker platform to send the actual orders, so they post graphs done on their other (graphical) platform. But others are using an integrated graphs + orders setup platform showing graphs like this one where it's possible to see the order number and the operation performed (buy or sell) and also the stop loss (dashed line above the sale). Therefore they are not just examples, it's visible trades being started some days ago and showing where the market went afterwards.
Anyway I am off buying a new TV for my sister's birthday, and that TV has been kindly "gifted" to me by the markets. Cya
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
OllieNorth
Gallente R-K Industries
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Posted - 2011.07.29 17:32:00 -
[1634]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Anybody (Especially VV) that is convinced by this Voodoo really needs to read some Taleb, Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan before you lose your shirt.
What do Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman making out (as hot as it is) have to do with tech?!
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Darth Tickles
Origin. Black Legion.
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Posted - 2011.07.29 18:21:00 -
[1635]
Originally by: OllieNorth What do Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman making out (as hot as it is) have to do with tech?!
They both give me a hardon?
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Wabs
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Posted - 2011.08.22 13:42:00 -
[1636]
so it looks like its finally going over 100k again... Took a lot longer than expected! all going a lot slower than the predictions but its not crashing down like the dooms day ppl in here expected... still curious to see where it go's from here!
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Herman Klaus
Caldari Touched By Klaus
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Posted - 2011.08.22 19:24:00 -
[1637]
As i said......
Back over 100k by September i said. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict 120k by Sept 12th.
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TornSoul
BIG Gentlemen's Agreement
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Posted - 2011.08.22 21:27:00 -
[1638]
Edited by: TornSoul on 22/08/2011 21:27:14 Yeah once the "stickyness" of the 100K number is gone, it'll go up fast again.
A quick jump, and then slightly slower after that.
I'd say it (long run) won't rise as fast as before this patch scare/panic - As some people will still be a bit scared about a future nerf.
We'll see.
BIG Lottery |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.23 06:26:00 -
[1639]
Originally by: TornSoul Yeah once the "stickyness" of the 100K number is gone, it'll go up fast again.
A quick jump, and then slightly slower after that.
I'd say it (long run) won't rise as fast as before this patch scare/panic - As some people will still be a bit scared about a future nerf.
We'll see.
Love how if someone says 100k is "sticky", none comments in any way. If someone else says 100k is a BRN (big round number) and acted as support / resistance (hence the stickyness) he gets burned on a stake.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 11:32:00 -
[1640]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Originally by: TornSoul Yeah once the "stickyness" of the 100K number is gone, it'll go up fast again.
A quick jump, and then slightly slower after that.
I'd say it (long run) won't rise as fast as before this patch scare/panic - As some people will still be a bit scared about a future nerf.
We'll see.
Love how if someone says 100k is "sticky", none comments in any way. If someone else says 100k is a BRN (big round number) and acted as support / resistance (hence the stickyness) he gets burned on a stake.
Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
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Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc.
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Posted - 2011.08.23 12:23:00 -
[1641]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
Also it was a posteriori observation about the current market behavior with no implicit or explicit predictions on how stick numbers in general will affect future trades.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 12:48:00 -
[1642]
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
Originally by: Claire Voyant Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
Also it was a posteriori observation about the current market behavior with no implicit or explicit predictions on how stick numbers in general will affect future trades.
Well, I have always argued that VV does exactly the same thing, but he then tells us we were stupid for not seeing 3 months ago what he himself just discovered 5 minutes before.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.23 13:58:00 -
[1643]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 23/08/2011 14:03:38
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
Originally by: Claire Voyant Let's start with three: 1. He made an actual prediction. 2. He didn't tell us we were all idiots and how great a trader he was. 3. He used one word instead of a hundred to say the same thing.
Also it was a posteriori observation about the current market behavior with no implicit or explicit predictions on how stick numbers in general will affect future trades.
Well, I have always argued that VV does exactly the same thing, but he then tells us we were stupid for not seeing 3 months ago what he himself just discovered 5 minutes before.
Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
The latter is forcefully false, I don't (nor know how) to trade in EvE on 5 minutes time frames. It's actually extremely hard to trade on 5 minutes in RL as well.
Edit: I posted "predictions" (your word, not mine) some times but since I am RL market oriented and my time in EvE was limited, I indeed posted more late graphs than "before" graphs. It's because I stuck trading those 2-3 markets (ofc did not post analysis of those ) while the others I give them a look once every 2 months.
The market hints, though, don't grow "old". IE if a weekly retracement BUOB appears today, it means "buy" regardless whether I say it today, 1 week ahead or 1 year later. Of course *to you* it's pointless to be explained I read a price in a certain way when it's too late but the intent was and is to have people learn it themselves and apply that in their markets. I show them the fishing pole that does not expire, it's their task to use it to fish future fish with it.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 14:09:00 -
[1644]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
Just a month ago in this thread.
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Oh'Freddled Gruntbuggly
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Posted - 2011.08.23 16:17:00 -
[1645]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
That's people who put the money where their mouth was and now are enjoying their rewards.
Trading with other people's money is the easist job in the world. If you make a profit your employers will give you a bonus, if you make a loss the taxpayer is made to bail your money-losing asses out.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.23 17:57:00 -
[1646]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 23/08/2011 17:57:55
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
Just a month ago in this thread.
I can clearly say the word "idiot" and guess what, it was you to say it in the next post.
Oddly enough your memory is not as good to recall the multiple times I said I would generally not post "signals" (= current trades) any more. People used them to manipulate markets I and other TA thread readers were invested in, which is something I don't approve.
Since the basic market rules are the same (I use them interchangeably in RL and EvE) you may always go to the multiple times linked RL trading threads and see the "predictions" (still using your terms) being confirmed trade after trade both by me and by the guy who teaches it. Many are "past trade" examples but all the dozens of examples where you can find a dotted line labelled "buy" or "sell", it's trades in the future.
Originally by: Oh'Freddled Gruntbuggly
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
That's people who put the money where their mouth was and now are enjoying their rewards.
Trading with other people's money is the easist job in the world. If you make a profit your employers will give you a bonus, if you make a loss the taxpayer is made to bail your money-losing asses out.
Didn't know EvE got bailouts. As for RL, people elected those who made those lol bailouts, they got who and what they asked for. This is what happens when you use politicians to deal with economy: a disaster after another.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 18:55:00 -
[1647]
Edited by: Claire Voyant on 23/08/2011 18:58:46
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 23/08/2011 17:57:55
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Where did I say you were idiot for not seeing 3 months ago what I myself just discovered 5 minutes before?
Just a month ago in this thread.
I can clearly say the word "idiot" and guess what, it was you to say it in the next post.
You accused everyone who owned tech of having a "brain impairment" and it was 4 months instead of 3 and 7 minutes instead of 5. So excuse me for paraphrasing.
Edit: When will you learn it is not technical analysis we hate, it is you.
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Angsty Teenager
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Posted - 2011.08.23 19:07:00 -
[1648]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Edit: When will you learn it is not technical analysis we hate, it is you.
I don't like him either.
I can confirm that I own quadrillions of units of tech myself also.
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Devai Starchild
Caldari
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Posted - 2011.08.23 19:40:00 -
[1649]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
You accused everyone who owned tech of having a "brain impairment" and it was 4 months instead of 3 and 7 minutes instead of 5. So excuse me for paraphrasing.
Edit: When will you learn it is not technical analysis we hate, it is you.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Those two statements do not look the same.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2011.08.23 19:41:00 -
[1650]
Originally by: Herman Klaus As i said......
Back over 100k by September i said. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict 120k by Sept 12th.
You're wise man, Herman.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.23 19:49:00 -
[1651]
Originally by: Devai Starchild
Originally by: Claire Voyant
You accused everyone who owned tech of having a "brain impairment" and it was 4 months instead of 3 and 7 minutes instead of 5. So excuse me for paraphrasing.
Edit: When will you learn it is not technical analysis we hate, it is you.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Those two statements do not look the same.
Follow his link. It is a post that says we all should have seen the tech crash coming since March. Unfortunately, that link was posted in July, 4 months too late and only 7 minutes before he called us all "brain impaired" for missing the signal. It also happened to be posted two months after the crash and a week after the bottom. Predicting the past is a hell of a lot easier than predicting the future.
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trance atlas
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Posted - 2011.08.24 03:34:00 -
[1652]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Devai Starchild
Originally by: Claire Voyant
You accused everyone who owned tech of having a "brain impairment" and it was 4 months instead of 3 and 7 minutes instead of 5. So excuse me for paraphrasing.
Edit: When will you learn it is not technical analysis we hate, it is you.
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 25/07/2011 14:42:12 Technetium seen from another perspective: Linkage.
It'd have taken some serious brain impairment to manage to lose on Tech.
Those two statements do not look the same.
Follow his link. It is a post that says we all should have seen the tech crash coming since March. Unfortunately, that link was posted in July, 4 months too late and only 7 minutes before he called us all "brain impaired" for missing the signal. It also happened to be posted two months after the crash and a week after the bottom. Predicting the past is a hell of a lot easier than predicting the future.
Other than getting ****ed of at my brain because of the huge amount of unneeded quotes and the fake market vodoo I see no dub v calling anyone stupid
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.08.24 04:04:00 -
[1653]
Originally by: trance atlas Other than getting p*ssed off at my brain because of the huge amount of unneeded quotes and the fake market vodoo I see no dub v calling anyone stupid
Pardon me for beating a dead horse, but "brain impairment" is at least as bad as calling someone stupid because stupidity can be temporary. Perhaps the problem is the lack of context. He was referring to people that lost money in the tech crash from May to July when it went from over 120k to 80k. He thinks they're stupid because they didn't have his magic crystal ball otherwise known as TTHS (for twenty-twenty hind-sight.)
(Did you know you can see the hidden curse words when you quote someone? How useful.)
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Jerry Pepridge
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Posted - 2011.08.24 04:21:00 -
[1654]
Claire: no reason to sperg butthurt across 3 pages. VV likes technical analysis (98% of ppl know its voodoo, you being one of them.) get over it
VV: tl:dr as usual, please make a new thread when you leave so claire can stop being mad.
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7 Easy steps |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.08.24 07:02:00 -
[1655]
This reply was so appropriate it deserve a temporary exception to my usual not replying to you.
Originally by: Jerry Pepridge Claire: no reason to sperg butthurt across 3 pages. VV likes technical analysis (98% of ppl know its voodoo, you being one of them.) get over it
VV: tl:dr as usual, please make a new thread when you leave so claire can stop being mad.
1) I am almost tempted to not leave since Claire Voyant rosicking and forum PvP are one of the best EvE experiences in this game.
2) Standard industrial processes involve wave and pattern analysis, no one call them voodoo. It'd be voodoo if someone came to tell he got "The Obscure System" you have to pay a bunch for. Instead, it's 2 years I explain all I can in detail and for free.
I am sorry that people are so scared of trying something when every tool, every "rule", everything about how to do it is freely available and can be *tested* by anyone who want.
All it takes is to be able to see beyond the blinders and to stop being old bigots at 30 years old.
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
Oh'Freddled Gruntbuggly
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Posted - 2011.08.24 19:07:00 -
[1656]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
As for RL, people elected those who made those lol bailouts, they got who and what they asked for.
They also got your money.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.09.09 01:55:00 -
[1657]
Well, it was a nice run, but these forums are closing. Not going to bother to recreate this thread on the new forums, it's pointless.
For posterity's sake, "The Forge" regional averages at this date: Technetium - 100.5k (relatively stable for the past 6 weeks or so, after a peak at 130k in May 2011) Neodymium - 21.5k (relatively stable for the past 4 months, after a peak at 55k in Feb 2011) Dysprosium - 9.6k (fluctuations between 9k and 15k for the entire past year) Promethium - 5.8k (fluctuations between 4k and 10k for the entire past year)
Not QUITE as different from what was predicted, but different enough. Underestimating the stockpiles was not a good idea. _
Akita T USEFUL EVE LINKS collection |
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