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Astreaul
Gallente EuDoTeK Forn Sidr Fyrd
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Posted - 2009.11.30 18:16:00 -
[361]
tl;dr
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.30 18:22:00 -
[362]
Originally by: Astreaul tl;dr
tl;dr a lot of us are now monstrously rich. Or at least more so than we were before.
The closest I can think of to an actual tl;dr is one of my posts from a few pages back - here.
Really, if you want more info than that you're going to have to try to read Akita's posts, and any others that look long enough to contain interesting info - it doesn't simplify easily I'm afraid.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 19:16:00 -
[363]
Originally by: Akita T Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-) |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 19:21:00 -
[364]
Originally by: Gnulpie
Originally by: Akita T Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-)
that looks like a lot of work for proving a troll, who got backed by his alt, wrong. Thanks anyway
oh, and even with tech calculated at 26k a unit, nanotransistors produce at about 2k each... so i know what i would buy :)
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Simon Mickey
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Posted - 2009.11.30 19:53:00 -
[365]
The price of tech has hit 23.9k or thereabouts last I checked, and it's set to rise as the demand for it skyrockets.
The reaction does indeed yield only 1.5k, not 3k.
Good news for everyone who's invested in it
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.11.30 20:11:00 -
[366]
This was the usage given general sales numbers of ships over a space of a month about 2 months ago, from most used, to least used. Silicates - Platinum - Evaporate Deposits - Chromium - Cadmium - Promethium - Hydrocarbons - Dysprosium - Vanadium - Technetium - Mercury - Hafnium - Cobalt - Atmospheric Gases - Neodymium - Caesium - Titanium - Tungsten - Thulium - Scandium
This is after Dominion, same quantity of ships, again from most used to least used. Evaporate Deposits - Silicates - Platinum - Chromium - Atmospheric Gases - Hydrocarbons - Cadmium - Technetium - Titanium - Vanadium - Cobalt - Mercury - Tungsten - Neodymium - Scandium - Promethium - Hafnium - Dysprosium - Caesium - Thulium
This is the list of increased usage from largest increase to smallest. Scandium - Tungsten - Atmospheric Gases - Titanium - Evaporate Deposits - Silicates - Cobalt - Technetium - Platinum - Chromium - Hydrocarbons - Neodymium - Vanadium - Mercury - Cadmium - Hafnium - Caesium - Dysprosium - Promethium - Thulium
What got me was why Tungsten was on the list of getting a bigger increase of usage, and something like Cadmium and Caesium wasn't, considering those two make up Galantee ships (Armor tankers) and Ore ships I expected their usage to go up, more then Titanium which is shield tanker. So I went digging into my sheet. For the most part almost ALL T2 ships have same usage of components. All the interceptors, Maruadas, Cover-ops, HACs etc all use exactly the same number of each component. Which is fine because price variances are because of material variances and popularity. This is why an Amarr HAC is priced different from Caldari HAC.. The increases and decreases on components that make up those ships all went up and down by similar values. Like a Assault frigate for either 1500% or 1250% increase in armor plates.. This is true all the way up until you get to Command Ships.
For some reason, Command Ships use different amounts of components according to what they are really designed to do. Clearly CCP being considerate to how the ship would be used. Or an example of CCP getting lazy the more ships they add to the game. For example, why does a Paladin use the same number of armor plates and shield emitters as a Golem for example. Clearly CCP got lazy or at least at some point thought WHY?!?!!
So Command Ships appear to be the legacy of more in-depth consideration for component usage, however all that is changing. CCP is now taking CS to the SAME level as every other CS type. Meaning The Amarr Fleet CS (Damnation) uses the same number of components as the Caldari Fleet CS (Vulture). I wasn't too interested in decreases in component usage as that would be a sign of reduction in usage. Only increases.
This limited it down to Processor, Sensor, Capacitor, Armor.
What's interesting about this is not so much the 1000%+ for armor plates, but the 570%+ for the Absolution's Processors and 180%+ for Sensors. Since the Absoultion is more popular Amarr CS, expect the price of these to go WAY up, as it also received the lowest amount of "Reductions" apart from Reactors, which it received the average amount, (9%).
While my original question as to why Tungsten is still heavily used is not really answered, I find this info pretty revealing.
As a Absolution Pilot I think I might go and get me some now, while they are just 200mil instead of 500mil :)
Amarr for Life |
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.30 20:11:00 -
[367]
Originally by: Simon Mickey The price of tech has hit 23.9k or thereabouts last I checked, and it's set to rise as the demand for it skyrockets.
The reaction does indeed yield only 1.5k, not 3k.
Good news for everyone who's invested in it
Bastard
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Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:06:00 -
[368]
Originally by: Gnulpie
Originally by: Akita T Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-)
Sisi, latest build 117956, just 7 hours before dowtime for expansion: Nanotransistor reaction yields 1500 units.
So the train can continue to roll.
And the price for Nanotransistors got pushed now to above 7k
Maybe the bottleneck is not Technetium but Nanotransistors and the amount of reactors/logistic necessary to build all those nanotrans. |
EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:30:00 -
[369]
Also depends on the increase in Microprocessor production. Patch notes said they would not take as long to build, but that could be half the time or one-fifth the time. The faster they are to build the sooner the nanotransistor stocks dwindle.
BTW - Quantum Microprocessor are still selling at under 14K. If nothing changes, the nanotransistors in the microprocessors are worth 25K.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:32:00 -
[370]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 30/11/2009 21:33:17 i did some minimal math on nanotransistors, and, very roughly, a rise in tech of 30k results in a rise of nanos of 1000, so with a nano price of 4k, you could buy tech at about 90k and still not make a loss... i really dont think that, besides speculation caused, we will see a shortage in nano (and its reactors)
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Furious Ratter
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:36:00 -
[371]
The problem with nanotransistors might not be the price of manufacture materials, but the amount of reactors needed to produce them - it all depends on how fast the reaction guys will react on this.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 12:28:00 -
[372]
Yeah, finished products and advanced materials should spike for a while well above material costs, but then the moon minerals will follow suit too, if not already driven to the appropriate levels by speculation. But before all that (or at least at roughly the same time), we need to see a dramatic drop in price for dysprosium and promethium related products, and I do mean "omg, what the hell just happened with the prices, why did they drop so much" kind of dramatic.
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22ww
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Posted - 2009.12.01 12:44:00 -
[373]
In case anyone was wondering CCP has made a few unrelated additions to the patch notes, but nothing that will effect the market. Should be an interesting patch day.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 12:54:00 -
[374]
Originally by: 22ww In case anyone was wondering CCP has made a few unrelated additions to the patch notes, but nothing that will effect the market. Should be an interesting patch day.
See post 365, the one that started the rumour initially admitted to it having been a hoax. Most likely intended to have people panic-sell to one of his buy orders
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22ww
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:12:00 -
[375]
Edited by: 22ww on 01/12/2009 13:13:30 I wasn't refering to the rumor that you already helped discredit, but to any other market related change CCP would be unlikely to pre announce. I'm a bit relived but I won't relax untill I log into TQ again.
I hate to disagree with you since you've been correct on so many predictions before but I'm expecting overall lower price levels on finished ships. With the removal of the old bottlenecks and huge stocks in the way of any potential new ones producers will be undercutting eachother agressivly. Long term this means a lower equilibrium price level.
Even with all the advance knowledge of the changes we have, and subsiquently increased prices on several components the market for finished t2 ships is just too big to be moved by short term market fluctuations. Unlike the market for moon materials which you've shown is quite fun to play with. |
Furious Ratter
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:34:00 -
[376]
I dare to think Akita is aiming elsewhere here.
Lots of people hold huge reserves of moon materials, and few large reserves of simple reactions. But Im not sure how much nanotransistors is stockpiled, which might be the limited factor for t2 production.
Technetium / Neo / Simple reactions can get supressed for few weeks by people releasing all the reserves theyve been stockpiling, but if the amount of reactors isnt sufficient and someone clears of the nanotransistors and keeps clearing them regulary, whole empire t2 manufacturing business gets a kick in the nuts.
Lets call it... The Nanotransistors Crisis (*dramatic music*)
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:36:00 -
[377]
Edited by: Akita T on 01/12/2009 13:42:06
Originally by: 22ww I hate to disagree with you since you've been correct on so many predictions before but I'm expecting overall lower price levels on finished ships. With the removal of the old bottlenecks and huge stocks in the way of any potential new ones producers will be undercutting eachother agressivly. Long term this means a lower equilibrium price level.
On the chosen sample, let's assume for simplicity's sake all of it is "freshly manufactured". If it's not, then we could assume it's roughly the same in terms of new vs recycled-into-the-market items, so the ratios won't be changing. Let's look at bottlenecks... BEFORE Dominion, the bottlenecks were dysprosium and promethium, with the sample using up an estimated 58% (give or take) of the global production potential. AFTER Dominion, the bottleneck will be mainly technetium, with the exact same sample using up now an estimated 68% of the global production potential, the next bottleneck being neodymium at around 48% of the global production potential.
That would translate LONG TERM into (roughly) 15% less *NEW* T2 ships on the market compared to before Dominion, on top of the drastic increase in T2 component manufacture times for each individual ship. For instance, in Dominion it takes, what, more than a week to manufacture the T2 components for a Hulk ? Compared to what, one day before ? That's, let's say, at least +10 mil per Hulk in manufacture overhead alone, on top of material price increases too. Hulks going eventually for around 100 mil a piece would be almost a certainty, with the actual pricetag very likely to become even higher.
Short-to-medium term however, we may see a drop in price as technetium stockpiles all around EVE are being slowly but surely liquidated at ever increasing prices.
VERY short term, prices will spike due to lack of T2 components. It's all waves and waves of price changes
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These numbers are with a rough total technetium moon estimate of around 410, even if most likely that number is at around only 370.
There would have to be roughly 480 technetium moons in the game for the overall bottleneck in production to remain at the same level as before Dominion i.e. roughly 58% of total production (with technetium still the main bottleneck) so the same rough amounts of T2 goods would keep being manufactured. There would have to be roughly 590 technetium moons for technetium to become as scarce (relatively) as neodymium and share roughly the same unit prices, and in that case the number of T2 ships (and items in general) would be significantly larger (and therefore cheaper).
Speaking long-term of course, short term it's CHAOS.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:38:00 -
[378]
Originally by: Furious Ratter but if the amount of reactors isnt sufficient and someone clears of the nanotransistors and keeps clearing them regulary, whole empire t2 manufacturing business gets a kick in the nuts.
Lets call it... The Nanotransistors Crisis (*dramatic music*)
You're too late. I already called it 'the panic'.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 13:43:00 -
[379]
That's only one part of the problem, TD See above edits for the other reasons I make that call.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 14:06:00 -
[380]
Originally by: 22ww Well Akita no one should ever accuse you of not beliveing what you post on the fourms. Well played for sticking with it and I think everyone whos reading this thread wishes you luck. (Akita just single handedly pushed the sells on Technetium past 28k)
A belated thank you for this post - I somehow managed to skip it before DT, and noticed it now as I was checking up on something else.
BTW, I have almost 70 Bil invested in technetium now, but that number was barely over 9 Bil before I "got angry" and liquidated some other stocks to "buy out" the technetium market between 14:00 and 15:00 server time just before the patch. Precise numbers (alongside other interesting things) are in my bond thread.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.01 14:54:00 -
[381]
Originally by: Akita T BTW, I have almost 70 Bil invested in technetium now, but that number was barely over 9 Bil before I "got angry" and liquidated some other stocks to "buy out" the technetium market between 14:00 and 15:00 server time just before the patch.
Dear God, this is a sign of madness. Any sane person would have dumped everything right before the patch and taken their profits. If you are right, you are a crazy genius. If you are wrong, I pity your poor investors.
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Ms Pussycat
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Posted - 2009.12.01 15:12:00 -
[382]
You should also take into your consideration the relative efficiency of moon mining operations in the north (where is is suspected most the tech moons are) as more and more people put their eyes and fleets on a direct course to burn the north to the ground.
Its time to redefine market-based PVP.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 15:26:00 -
[383]
Edited by: Akita T on 01/12/2009 15:32:53
Originally by: Claire Voyant Dear God, this is a sign of madness. Any sane person would have dumped everything right before the patch and taken their profits. If you are right, you are a crazy genius. If you are wrong, I pity your poor investors.
Worst case scenario at this point (even if technetium crashes for some obscure reason or belated CCP intervention to barely 5k per unit or thereabouts) is that I make very little profit after I pay everything back My technetium stocks are at an average buy price of under 12k per unit. I already had made 30 bil _profit_ from the sales before the technetium buyout (and that sold stock was less than half of my pre-technetium-buyout stocks). The details are in the bond thread
Besides, wasn't being crazy a prerequisite for being a genius ?
_
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2009.12.01 16:57:00 -
[384]
Edited by: Le Skunk on 01/12/2009 17:01:33
Why aint chromium gone up then?
Im very disappointed. Following Akita T's Slimfast Plan has gained me only around 7 billion isk in profit, whereas my 10meg mega spreadsheet told me i would make 8 billions isk profit - but chromium turned out to be a dud tip.
Please can someone manipulate the old market somehow on chromium so i can make more iskies
I would stay to chat but my oversized mobile phone is ringing "whats that... ya ya... buy buy... SELL..."
SKUNK (o)
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Count MonteCarlo
Genos Occidere HYDRA RELOADED
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Posted - 2009.12.01 19:54:00 -
[385]
Looks like we're in the clear
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.12.01 20:03:00 -
[386]
Originally by: Count MonteCarlo Looks like we're in the clear
good times to be had
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Pohbis
Neo T.E.C.H.
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Posted - 2009.12.01 20:57:00 -
[387]
Originally by: Le Skunk Why aint chromium gone up then?
Because they stealth-slashed demand by 60% and everyone is trying to silently get rid of it atm ;)
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Le Skunk
Low Sec Liberators
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Posted - 2009.12.01 21:03:00 -
[388]
Originally by: Pohbis
Originally by: Le Skunk Why aint chromium gone up then?
Because they stealth-slashed demand by 60% and everyone is trying to silently get rid of it atm ;)
Thank you
SKUNK (o)
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Pohbis
Neo T.E.C.H.
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Posted - 2009.12.01 21:29:00 -
[389]
Originally by: Le Skunk Thank you
You're welcome. I got out of the chrom race even before it started, since after buying stock I remembered how much CCP hates Angel space... and sold at break even.
Wish I would have put all that in Tech now tho :/
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.01 22:07:00 -
[390]
Originally by: Pohbis Because they stealth-slashed demand by 60% and everyone is trying to silently get rid of it atm ;)
What do you mean by "stealth" ? If you mean the Sylramic Fibers reduction from 30 to 10, we've been talking about it in here since the early pages.
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