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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.08 04:54:00 -
[1]
Background
As most of you know Eve in game insurance for ships holds (usually) the total mineral basket to a minimum value. When the total value of the mineral basket drops under a certain value it becomes profitable to build ships, insure them (platinum) and self destruct them.
For all my calculations I have a mineral basket price equiavlent to building a ROKH from a BPO (ME 20) using only minerals purchased directly from Jita sell orders. If conditions are normal the mineral basket should be worth at least 115.5M ISK, which is the break even point between production and ship insurance.
Operation
At the beginning of November (as many of you know) the mineral basket had dropped to 102.6, so I could make at least 10M on every Rokh I produced. I devised a plan wondering if I could significantly manipulate the Jita mineral market. Obviously I didn't have the funds to try and directly manipulate the market so I could only attempt this via a brute force attack on the insurance side, by manufacturing and blowing up ships.
Initially I purchased all Rokh's and Abaddon's in Jita under 115.5 and 126M respectively (126 is Abaddon insurance point) and did so through the course of November, totally 365 ships under insurance value. There was no way I could pop all the ships my self (I did about 100) so I sold to contract mainly via SCC channel at 2M under insurance for both parties to make a good profit.
Secondly I started a massive Rokh construction program building 200 Rokh's at a time a few jumps from Jita using 10 run BPC's (quickly wiping out the entire Forge contract market). In total I built 1360 Rokh's in November at an average price of 106.45M (including BPC cost) and an average sell price of 113.5M.
Now to move all these minerals (200B units) would have required 2300 Freighter trips. Luckily I had arranged some massive contracts with mining corps only leaving 420 freighter loads to be moved from Jita. I used many courier contracts and specialist companies of which one stood out (RF Freight).
With all this huge uptake in minerals I thought the market would easily move. Well it didn't, so I went public hoping to push the market further with more entrants. After going public the mineral basket started to move but not by very much.
After all the work the mineral basket currently stands at 110.2 which is still under insurance.
I FAILED
I can't believe after consuming 150B units of Trit alone the market didn't budge, or at least not by much.
Even though my project failed (I did make about 10B in profits from it), I did learn some interesting facts:
1. No matter how much you buy at Jita people will rush to fill any voids. 2. Pyerite is *relatively* the scarcest mineral (on 5 occasions I wiped the entire supply in Jita) 3. RF Freight (Red Frog run by Locin WeEda) is easily the best freight service in Eve. They handled 5-10B ISK contracts requiring 20-40 freighter loads in 24 hr periods easily. 4. Big mineral basket winners in November were Pyerite and Nocx which I wouldn't have predicted. Relative scarcity I suppose. 5. Surprised that the basket is still as low right now.
note: I still have 159 Rokh's left (2 jumps from Jita) for sale at 113.5M ISK each (2M profit per ship). If anyone wants any eve-mail me.
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Cyntia Lelaert
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Posted - 2009.12.08 05:16:00 -
[2]
I was there with you since day 1 (and though I was right in the direction of nocx I was horribly wrong re: magnitude). Another SCC semi-regular's megathron BPO is a smoking, threadbare shadow of its former self. And once again, no impact. I think the biggest problem is the number of researched tier3 battleship BPOs. Up until profitable insurance there just wasn't much demand for that product, so relatively few were researched to useful levels.
It just boggles the mind re: how many freighters worth of low ends pass through Jita each and every day though.
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Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2009.12.08 05:18:00 -
[3]
I wish I could find a steady supplier of gallente battleships at 2m under insurance - I would pop ships day in day out.
Originally by: "Aristotle" We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
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Vasta Magna
Yarex Shipyards
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Posted - 2009.12.08 05:29:00 -
[4]
Your operation started shortly after I approached you about an insurance bond... where's my tip?
Seriously though, the mineral market's ability to absorb the damage people have been doing is mind-blowing. 2300 freighters worth from just you! And everyone and their dog doing it too. This stuff better be analyzed in the next QEN or we'll have to pod Eyjo.
I only used maybe 50-70 freighters worth, I feel like such a slacker now.
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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2009.12.08 06:32:00 -
[5]
Heh, was wondering when someone would make a post like this.
I'll come forward, too. I accounted for 13,662 Abaddons created for someone else to turn into dust, in the last two months.
I also agree on the occasional Pye "bottleneck" and the wonderful service of RFF.
As to "contracts with mining corps" - I found placing buy orders 1 jump from Jita at the price I would have paid in Jita for the same minerals worked just fine for filling a majority of the void. ----------------
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.08 06:56:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Lui Kai Heh, was wondering when someone would make a post like this.
I'll come forward, too. I accounted for 13,662 Abaddons created for someone else to turn into dust, in the last two months.
I also agree on the occasional Pye "bottleneck" and the wonderful service of RFF.
As to "contracts with mining corps" - I found placing buy orders 1 jump from Jita at the price I would have paid in Jita for the same minerals worked just fine for filling a majority of the void.
13662 Abaddons in the last 2 months. I busted my ass to make 1360 and kept accurate records. I had 11 corp contracts for minerals weekly, and I was 2 jumps from Jita which is about the nearest usable system with free slots.
A maxed skilled researcher/industrialist using 11 x 10 run BPC's at a time can make just over 10,000 ships a month.
That is 1.7T in minerals that needs to be hauled, and a huge number of Abaddon BPC's which I know were NOT on the market.
I very much doubt anyone could do that number of ships.
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Maaltor
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Posted - 2009.12.08 07:06:00 -
[7]
And I felt good about making 10 Drakes today... holy jeebus
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Pink Kiwi
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Posted - 2009.12.08 07:14:00 -
[8]
1360 Rokhs would take about 15b units of trit. You said you used over 150b units of trit. What was the vast majority of that trit used for?
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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2009.12.08 07:19:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Lui Kai on 08/12/2009 07:22:57
Originally by: cosmoray
13662 Abaddons in the last 2 months. I busted my ass to make 1360 and kept accurate records.
My records aren't anywhere near as detailed as yours. I was just turning a profit, not conducting a market experiment. I was also able to maintain a high turnover on them, as I found a small industrialist corp that was willing to buy them all (in daily increments, to accomodate their wallets), and was able to maintain a higher production rate than my wallet would otherwise have supported if I had to sit on stock for any time period.
Originally by: cosmoray I had 11 corp contracts for minerals weekly, and I was 2 jumps from Jita which is about the nearest usable system with free slots.
Check Niyabainen. Though I admit, you probably got better margins by making agreements with mining corps.
Originally by: cosmoray A maxed skilled researcher/industrialist using 11 x 10 run BPC's at a time can make just over 10,000 ships a month.
Alts are key, here.
Originally by: cosmoray That is 1.7T in minerals that needs to be hauled, and a huge number of Abaddon BPC's which I know were NOT on the market.
As stated - buy orders at Jita sell prices covered a majority of the void. There were three or four times where a line stood empty for a few hours, due to lack of minerals (or poor attention on my part for when a line would finish), but overall it worked well for me. It could have been more efficient, and attained a higher number - but that would have involved obtaining more blueprints, and inputting more work. I was happy with it at the level I maintained it.
I wasn't using BPCs. I had 6 BPOs of my own, and was able to borrow the remaining 10 used.
Originally by: cosmoray I very much doubt anyone could do that number of ships.
Suit yourself.
----------------
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Vasta Magna
Yarex Shipyards
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Posted - 2009.12.08 07:36:00 -
[10]
Originally by: cosmoray I busted my ass to make 1360
Per what? Is that your total? Wondering if you maybe left off a zero.
I just flipped though my journal and I made approx 600 ships. Estimating liberally that's 60,000,000+ m3 of minerals or perhaps 70-75 freighters worth.
Given what you were saying about your logistics it seems you must have made more? (Or, equally likely, I made a critical error in my guesstimation).
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cho0li0
Gallente Universal Exports Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.12.08 07:44:00 -
[11]
Edited by: cho0li0 on 08/12/2009 07:44:04 Now, imagine how much would things cost without major wars and without insuranse fraud...
...absolutely nothing
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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2009.12.08 07:54:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Lui Kai on 08/12/2009 07:58:40
Originally by: Vasta Magna
Originally by: cosmoray I busted my ass to make 1360
Per what? Is that your total? Wondering if you maybe left off a zero.
I just flipped though my journal and I made approx 600 ships. Estimating liberally that's 60,000,000+ m3 of minerals or perhaps 70-75 freighters worth.
Given what you were saying about your logistics it seems you must have made more? (Or, equally likely, I made a critical error in my guesstimation).
In the OP he states that was in November.
I'm guessing you're making a tier 2 or tier 1 battleship. A raven, for example, comes very close to your numbers - at 72 freighters for 600 ships. I don't have the numbers for Rokhs, but that number of Abaddons (which are quite similar for mineral requirements) would be between 200-300 freighters worth (depending on the freighter used and the skill of the pilot).
Edit to amend: To be fair, I'm not sure where the 430 freighter trip number is coming from, as by my math it's between 200-300 for other tier3 battleships at that number. To be equally fair to him, perhaps he meant 430 jumps in a freighter. ----------------
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Vasta Magna
Yarex Shipyards
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Posted - 2009.12.08 08:03:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Vasta Magna on 08/12/2009 08:04:24 Edit: nvm, I found my math error. I was off by almost a third on Rokh mineral volume.
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Pink Kiwi
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Posted - 2009.12.08 08:10:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Lui Kai
To be fair, I'm not sure where the 430 freighter trip number is coming from, as by my math it's between 200-300 for other tier3 battleships at that number. To be equally fair to him, perhaps he meant 430 jumps in a freighter.
It was 420 freighter loads that were left after mining corps supplied the rest that needed hauling. The total stated freighter loads is 2,300.
The OP has a few numbers that off by a factor of 10. It was either 13,600 Rokhs for 200b units of minerals or 1,360 rokhs for 20b units of minerals.
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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2009.12.08 09:01:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Pink Kiwi
It was 420 freighter loads that were left after mining corps supplied the rest that needed hauling. The total stated freighter loads is 2,300.
The OP has a few numbers that off by a factor of 10. It was either 13,600 Rokhs for 200b units of minerals or 1,360 rokhs for 20b units of minerals.
Ah, fair enough. That's what I get for skim-reading. Thank you. ----------------
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Skarii TuThess
Lansez Innovations
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Posted - 2009.12.08 10:38:00 -
[16]
As a side note, insurance payouts were/are one of the things most looked at when analysing inflation in Eve, as it is in ISK tap.
What effect do you believe all this insurance fraud will have on this?
For example (if my maths is right) 13360 Abaddons @ 115.5m ISK created each is an additional 1.5T isk created, and most of this now belongs to the mining corps that were contracted / sold minerals in Jita.
Anyway - thanks for the information cosmo, very interesting to read about!
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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2009.12.08 11:21:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Skarii TuThess ...fraud as an isk faucet, rather than sink...
I don't think it will have a significant impact on the overall level of isk, as - frankly - situations such as this are definitely on the rare side. Especially one that's lasted as long as this, in the face of such public encouragement to everyone to start in suiciding.
I honestly don't expect the sub-suicide-mineral-basket to endure through this month. ----------------
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Samroski
J0urneys End
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Posted - 2009.12.08 12:29:00 -
[18]
Cosmoray, Lui Kai,, you guys are my heroes :)
Always wanted to have a fleet of freighters constantly supplying my operation. Instead I made like 20 BCs in Nov.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.08 13:32:00 -
[19]
I know how I confused myself reading Lui Kai post.
My number was 13600, I misread my spreadsheet on the number of ships, but didn't misread the minerals or freighter contracts used!!
Sorry Lui, no wonder your numbers looked wierd to me after my effort!!
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SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Technology and Finance
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Posted - 2009.12.08 14:28:00 -
[20]
Originally by: cosmoray I FAILED
That's what I took away from all of this.
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.12.08 14:30:00 -
[21]
Originally by: cosmoray I know how I confused myself reading Lui Kai post.
My number was 13600, I misread my spreadsheet on the number of ships, but didn't misread the minerals or freighter contracts used!!
Sorry Lui, no wonder your numbers looked wierd to me after my effort!!
Good that that's cleared up, still excellent effort and very intersting.
The numbers are staggering really - just the two of you essentially generated over 3 TRILLION isk in the space of a month? You didn't end up with all of it yourself but wow that's a lot of ISK entering the economy.
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Katiana Swan
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Posted - 2009.12.08 14:45:00 -
[22]
What I find most interesting is that there was ample supply for the massive amount of minerals used between you two and that prices haven't really moved as a result. This was fairly well advertised as well so it's safe to say there's at least another 20 people doing the same thing on various levels.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.12.08 15:04:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Katiana Swan What I find most interesting is that there was ample supply for the massive amount of minerals used between you two and that prices haven't really moved as a result. This was fairly well advertised as well so it's safe to say there's at least another 20 people doing the same thing on various levels.
Yeah, went through somewhere between 20-30bil worth of ships this way myself. Which really isn't so much considering that it can easily be done in digestible chunks of a few billion at a time.
There is/was serious room for minor players to get in on this.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.12.08 15:59:00 -
[24]
Yeah, umm sorry about that
You want to know WHY it failed?
Buy orders.. Buy orders from people who could care less about Insurance and Blowing up ships. You say "Using only minerals purchased directly from Jita sell orders." <--- This is why you failed.
You really want to effect the mineral market, place "BUY" orders 0.02ISK below the lowest Sell order. Watch how quickly it get's filled, but it does have a side effect. There MAY be someone who pennies you. And someone who pennies them. To put the market in an upswing, you need to buy with buy orders, not consume from sell orders.
I would believe that most miners mine, refine, ship to local hub, sell to buy orders. Which marketing people turn around and place directly on the market for a higher price. This would be the reason why Minerals still remain cheap, the miners are selling to marketing people cheap. The marketing people simply don't care how it's used just that they get their minerals sold first.
Amarr for Life |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.08 16:12:00 -
[25]
Originally by: SencneS Yeah, umm sorry about that
You want to know WHY it failed?
Buy orders.. Buy orders from people who could care less about Insurance and Blowing up ships. You say "Using only minerals purchased directly from Jita sell orders." <--- This is why you failed.
You really want to effect the mineral market, place "BUY" orders 0.02ISK below the lowest Sell order. Watch how quickly it get's filled, but it does have a side effect. There MAY be someone who pennies you. And someone who pennies them. To put the market in an upswing, you need to buy with buy orders, not consume from sell orders.
I would believe that most miners mine, refine, ship to local hub, sell to buy orders. Which marketing people turn around and place directly on the market for a higher price. This would be the reason why Minerals still remain cheap, the miners are selling to marketing people cheap. The marketing people simply don't care how it's used just that they get their minerals sold first.
I did use Buy orders where I could. I just stated for my basket index I calculated from Jita Sell orders.
I had buy orders for Isogen, mexallon, Nocxium, Zydrine and megacyte. The project used up so much Tritanium and Pyerite I couldn't manage any orders I just had to consume whatever was available on the market. I think 5 times I cleared the Pyerite market in Jita as I needed the minerals, and it was still profitable.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.12.08 16:42:00 -
[26]
Then I stand corrected, unless you where 0.01ing the buy orders?
The fact is a lot of people have been making ISK off buying mins low and selling them slightly higher even though the overall min basket price is below insurance values. Or maybes it's block keeping down minerals be releasing hundreds of billions worth to prove that Insurance doesn't hold minerals basket up LOL
Amarr for Life |
YouGotRipped
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2009.12.08 17:23:00 -
[27]
Well done, Cosmo!
Black Sun Empire |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Brutor tribe
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Posted - 2009.12.08 22:25:00 -
[28]
Pre Holy Rage:
1) RMT farmers produced lots of high ends => high ends price drops a lot => low ends price rises
2) Drone regions high ends freigthers regularly come to jita, adding to 1)
3) Much important, main systems veldspar roids dry up within 2-4 hours past downtime => low ends supply is heavily capped => low end prices rise. You could indeed go 10 jumps off any decent route, maybe in a no station system and mine, but none really bothered with the effort and logistics.
4) At the same time, the constant huge 0.0 wars push minerals demand up
Post Holy Rage:
1) RMT farmers exterminated, high ends become scarcer (despite WHs), high ends prices rise => less ships are made => less low ends demand => low ends prices drop
2) Drone regions high ends freigthers become rarer => same effect as 1)
3) Low ends are effectively infinite supply. The mining capability given by Hulks can produce FAR exceeding low ends than anyone can hope to use. In the improbable case of a temporary spike, more Hulks are simply deployed to dig more of the effectively infinite supply.
4) Less and less 0.0 wars involving hundreds of capitals => steep reduction in low ends needs.
- Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2009.12.08 22:45:00 -
[29]
Originally by: cosmoray
Sorry Lui, no wonder your numbers looked wierd to me after my effort!!
No worries, understandable mistake. ----------------
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.12.09 14:26:00 -
[30]
I'm hanging around for the new QEN, it will be a nice read with all these willful ship destructions :) It will reveal either an impact and a noticeable one, or hardly effect graphs at all. If it hardly effects the graphs you'll simply need to setup the game Cosmo :)
Amarr for Life |
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.09 15:44:00 -
[31]
Originally by: SencneS I'm hanging around for the new QEN, it will be a nice read with all these willful ship destructions :) It will reveal either an impact and a noticeable one, or hardly effect graphs at all. If it hardly effects the graphs you'll simply need to setup the game Cosmo :)
Heck, they won't even mention it at all. Considering they are keeping track of stupid data such as number of manufacturing jobs (not numbers of units) and an arbitrary consumer price index.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.12.09 16:19:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Claire Voyant Heck, they won't even mention it at all. Considering they are keeping track of stupid data such as number of manufacturing jobs (not numbers of units) and an arbitrary consumer price index.
They usually report destruction of ships though. That will see just much people where blowing up.
Amarr for Life |
Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.12.09 17:39:00 -
[33]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Claire Voyant Heck, they won't even mention it at all. Considering they are keeping track of stupid data such as number of manufacturing jobs (not numbers of units) and an arbitrary consumer price index.
They usually report destruction of ships though. That will see just much people where blowing up.
Do you read the same QEN that I do?
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Opportunity Costs
Caldari
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Posted - 2009.12.09 18:00:00 -
[34]
6. manufacturers don't care about opportunity costs, they just sell the stuff 0.01isk cheaper than lowest current sell order in Jita 4-4.
__________________________________ - Mining your own minerals doesnt drop your manufacturing costs! - Marginal earnings is what actually counts - Time is isk and enjoyment is isk aswell |
Gnulpie
Minmatar Miner Tech
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Posted - 2009.12.09 18:43:00 -
[35]
Interesting readup.
But it shows only that the trouble of logistics and building are still to high to be profitable at current mineral prices.
And what should people do anyway with all their minerals? Especially the drone regions. But also the new mineral depots in the improved 0.0 systems after Dominion will increase (high end) ore supply.
Though it is still interesting to see that the basket did move that slowly if at all. |
Cromzor
Caldari Agent-Orange
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Posted - 2009.12.09 18:51:00 -
[36]
Does this mean that you've stopped production?
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wallenbergaren
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Posted - 2009.12.09 22:55:00 -
[37]
Edited by: wallenbergaren on 09/12/2009 23:05:38 Now I, too, will print ISK until the market catches up which it apparently never will
Yay!
btw, what ME etc. did your BPCs have?
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.10 00:11:00 -
[38]
At least ME20.
If you want to make money I still have some Rokh's for sale at 113.5M ISK each. You would make 2M ISK per ship via the insurance destruction route.
I currently have about 200 Rokh's available, that would be 400M profits if someone wants to buy them.
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kyrieee
Psykotic Meat Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.12.10 00:26:00 -
[39]
This was a very interesting read
Thanks for typing it up and posting it
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Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente SRS Industries SRS.
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Posted - 2009.12.10 02:26:00 -
[40]
BTW i'm buying all gallente battleships at 2.5m under insurance en masse if anybody wants to build them but cba to blow them up.
Originally by: "Aristotle" We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2009.12.10 02:55:00 -
[41]
Originally by: Cromzor Does this mean that you've stopped production?
I did. Suicide production, anyway. While the basket hasn't moved much, it's moved enough to make the margins on suicide too much work for the juice, to me. ----------------
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Phersephone
Caldari Stormlord Battleforce Vanguard.
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Posted - 2009.12.10 08:37:00 -
[42]
Cosmoray,
i'll take your rokh's convo me in game.
will be on after 4pm game time.
Phersephone
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Sugar Jugs
Juggalicious
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Posted - 2009.12.10 09:06:00 -
[43]
Quote: 3. RF Freight (Red Frog run by Locin WeEda) is easily the best public freight service in Eve. They handled 5-10B ISK contracts requiring 20-40 freighter loads in 24 hr periods easily.
There are many like it, some public, most not. :)
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ropnes
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Posted - 2009.12.10 13:00:00 -
[44]
Any particular reason you chose to build Rokhs?
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Andron Blaxcor
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Posted - 2009.12.10 13:52:00 -
[45]
Originally by: cosmoray With all this huge uptake in minerals I thought the market would easily move. Well it didn't, so I went public hoping to push the market further with more entrants. After going public the mineral basket started to move but not by very much.
After all the work the mineral basket currently stands at 110.2 which is still under insurance.
I FAILED
Did you really fail? Before your scheme supply as outpacing demand and prices were falling. You (and others doing the same) increased demand and halted this fall in prices. You made the prices higher than they would have been without you.
Like you, I am surprised that such a large consumption of minerals didn't cause enough demand for prices to not only stop but start to climb as well. Interesting read, thanks for taking the time.
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ropnes
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Posted - 2009.12.10 14:06:00 -
[46]
pyerite has climbed a lot
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Veritech knight
Envoy Corps
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Posted - 2009.12.10 15:42:00 -
[47]
A+, very interesting, would read again :)
I knew about insurance fraud (have been paying 30m a dominix on buy orders, yay), but my hat's off to you sir for taking it to this scale
o/ vk
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Dylan Chan
Gallente The Maverick Navy IT Alliance
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Posted - 2009.12.10 19:18:00 -
[48]
ok.. But you had a big operation.. if your only making 4 mil above the mineral costs, how much did you pay to the haulers and the miners?
Also What is your time worth to you?
Nice read though..
-DC
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2009.12.10 19:39:00 -
[49]
Originally by: Dylan Chan
Also What is your time worth to you?
You clearly haven't thought this through too carefully.
Purchase most of what you need directly off the market, pay people to haul/mine everything else and create a few simple macros and at no more than an hour a day you could produce thousands of ships a week and destroy a few hundred a day yourself contracting the rest out at a modest profit. You would easily hit 500M a day and at a single hour per day that works out to a nice income. In fact, I doubt it would be all that hard to hit a billion+/hour with a large enough economy of scale.
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Mephistocles
Red Frog Investments Blue Sky Consortium
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Posted - 2009.12.10 19:40:00 -
[50]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer You clearly haven't thought this through too carefully.
Purchase most of what you need directly off the market, pay people to haul/mine everything else and create a few simple macros and at no more than an hour a day you could produce thousands of ships a week and destroy a few hundred a day yourself contracting the rest out at a modest profit. You would easily hit 500M a day and at a single hour per day that works out to a nice income. In fact, I doubt it would be all that hard to hit a billion+/hour with a large enough economy of scale.
Macros???
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2009.12.10 20:23:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Mephistocles
Originally by: Kwint Sommer You clearly haven't thought this through too carefully.
Purchase most of what you need directly off the market, pay people to haul/mine everything else and create a few simple macros and at no more than an hour a day you could produce thousands of ships a week and destroy a few hundred a day yourself contracting the rest out at a modest profit. You would easily hit 500M a day and at a single hour per day that works out to a nice income. In fact, I doubt it would be all that hard to hit a billion+/hour with a large enough economy of scale.
Macros???
Are you confused by the word "macros" or simply the implementation/legality of them?
If it's the first case then may I introduce you to google's very useful "define" function. Linkage What do you know? The very first result is our definition.
What does that macro do? It automates the process of docking, assembling and boarding a ship, buying insurance, undocking and self destructing. Basically you just click through the process once, record your mouse inputs to a script, add in random variables to make each execution unique and then put in short delays and redundancy of clicking to account for any lag or other unanticipated client responses and suddenly you can destroy a couple hundreds ships per day without even being at your computer. Each instance will be unique and the only thing you're manipulating is the mouse so it's the definition of undetectable. Furthermore, CCP allows certain levels of automation such as that offered by the macro functions on the G15 keyboard. This could arguably be included in that and even if it's not there's strong historical precedent for CCP accepting these sorts of things. See macro miners.
To the mods: I sincerely believe that this does not constitute discussion of an exploit given it's similarity to the officially sanctioned G15's functions. If it does cross the line, my apologies, and I will happily remove the statement.
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Mephistocles
Red Frog Investments Blue Sky Consortium
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Posted - 2009.12.10 20:52:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer Are you confused by the word "macros" or simply the implementation/legality of them?
If it's the first case then may I introduce you to google's very useful "define" function. Linkage What do you know? The very first result is our definition.
What does that macro do? It automates the process of docking, assembling and boarding a ship, buying insurance, undocking and self destructing. Basically you just click through the process once, record your mouse inputs to a script, add in random variables to make each execution unique and then put in short delays and redundancy of clicking to account for any lag or other unanticipated client responses and suddenly you can destroy a couple hundreds ships per day without even being at your computer. Each instance will be unique and the only thing you're manipulating is the mouse so it's the definition of undetectable. Furthermore, CCP allows certain levels of automation such as that offered by the macro functions on the G15 keyboard. This could arguably be included in that and even if it's not there's strong historical precedent for CCP accepting these sorts of things. See macro miners.
To the mods: I sincerely believe that this does not constitute discussion of an exploit given it's similarity to the officially sanctioned G15's functions. If it does cross the line, my apologies, and I will happily remove the statement.
I'm well aware of the definition and your condescending tone is quite humorous. I think it's somewhat irresponsible to suggest people set up macros to automate tasks without first knowing if it is sanctioned by CCP.
EULA, section 7.a.(3):
(3) You may not use macros or other stored rapid keystrokes or other patterns of play that facilitate acquisition of items, currency, objects, character attributes, rank or status at an accelerated rate when compared with ordinary Game play. You may not rewrite or modify the user interface or otherwise manipulate data in any way to acquire items, currency, objects, character attributes or beneficial actions not actually acquired or achieved in the Game.
Your argument might hold some water, but then you go on to say that it could work even while you aren't at your computer definitely makes that an exploit.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Brutor tribe
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Posted - 2009.12.10 21:12:00 -
[53]
Quote:
What does that macro do? It automates the process of docking, assembling and boarding a ship, buying insurance, undocking and self destructing. Basically you just click through the process once, record your mouse inputs to a script, add in random variables to make each execution unique and then put in short delays and redundancy of clicking to account for any lag or other unanticipated client responses and suddenly you can destroy a couple hundreds ships per day without even being at your computer. Each instance will be unique and the only thing you're manipulating is the mouse so it's the definition of undetectable. Furthermore, CCP allows certain levels of automation such as that offered by the macro functions on the G15 keyboard. This could arguably be included in that and even if it's not there's strong historical precedent for CCP accepting these sorts of things. See macro miners.
All of this is just beyond the thresold to be considered a macroer and thus be banned. Just beyond, but beyond. - Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Spacemanc
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Posted - 2009.12.11 01:40:00 -
[54]
Edited by: Spacemanc on 11/12/2009 01:40:42 Interesting thread
Have you considered placing buy orders for certain T1 items to reprocess ( ie buy orders set at the value of the reprocessed value of the items) - this will save the cost of paying people to haul minerals for you?
Maybe this could increase profits.
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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2009.12.11 03:07:00 -
[55]
Edited by: Lui Kai on 11/12/2009 03:08:08
Originally by: Dylan Chan ...What is your time worth to you?
From this venture: I figure my profit at a hair over 100b, for an average of 2 hours invested per day - so my time was worth about 833m/hr, to me. Not top of the line, I grant, but better than most people value their time by a fair margin. ----------------
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.11 03:21:00 -
[56]
My time.
I work based at home so I am logged in a lot, and in the SCC channel.
1. Now Cosmoray sat at Jita putting in a few very large buy orders daily, which I didn't micro-manage 2. Arranged hauler contracts to move to production location 3. Had multiple mining contracts drop off at MY production location 4. Purchased large numbers of BPC's off contracts in Jita, and a BPC delivery service and used my Rokh BPO 5. Using 3 ALT's put a job in after every 30 hrs for each. 10 runs per ALT of max run BPC 6. Selling Rokh's through contacts and SCC channel and on MD
Total time I would say 20 hours of the month dedicated, and 10 hours *soft* time chatting in channels and talking to people.
Time invested = 30 hrs Total Return = 97B profit Hourly rate = 3B+ per hour.
Was my time worth it, yes obviously.
Just like Keyser Soze.
People were working for me without knowledge that they were working for me. I rarely work with the same people for very long, and they never know who they're working for One cannot be betrayed if one has no people.
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Vasta Magna
Yarex Shipyards
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Posted - 2009.12.11 04:17:00 -
[57]
I was working on minimal capital and did most of my own labor and the profit/hr ratio was still quite nice. I was initially getting about 9 mil per ship and it tapered off until about 4.5m per I mostly stopped production. I destroyed about 30 ships an hour with two characters (4 mins per - not rushing).
9m x 30 = 270m / hr best rate 4.5m x 30 = 135m / hr worst rate
If I cut it in half to allow for time spent on freightering mins one jump from Jita, that's still 67.5 - 135m / hr. Better than mining Arkonor.
So even on a much smaller and more labor intensive scale than cosmo and Lui are talking it was worth the time compared to other consistently repeatable ways of making ISK.
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Kwint Sommer
Caldari Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2009.12.11 04:52:00 -
[58]
Originally by: Mephistocles
I'm well aware of the definition and your condescending tone is quite humorous. I think it's somewhat irresponsible to suggest people set up macros to automate tasks without first knowing if it is sanctioned by CCP.
EULA, section 7.a.(3):
(3) You may not use macros or other stored rapid keystrokes or other patterns of play that facilitate acquisition of items, currency, objects, character attributes, rank or status at an accelerated rate when compared with ordinary Game play. You may not rewrite or modify the user interface or otherwise manipulate data in any way to acquire items, currency, objects, character attributes or beneficial actions not actually acquired or achieved in the Game.
Your argument might hold some water, but then you go on to say that it could work even while you aren't at your computer definitely makes that an exploit.
The condescension was prompted by your one word response, it left a fair bit open to interpretation.
At any rate, reading that statement in the EULA further convinces me that such a macro is not prohibited. It neither facilitates acquisition of currency at an accelerated rate nor does it rewrite, modify or in any way use game data to do anything. It just reproduces mouse movement much the same way the G15 reproduces key strokes. Admittedly, having it run for hours on end without being at the computer makes it sound like a violation but it is not inherently and furthermore because it fails to pull any data from the client or do anything dynamic it is highly susceptible to failure from things like getting convoed so while it will work without you it runs best with supervision, much like sitting in a L4 with drones out.
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Pink Kiwi
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Posted - 2009.12.11 04:53:00 -
[59]
Originally by: cosmoray
5. Using 3 ALT's put a job in after every 30 hrs for each. 10 runs per ALT of max run BPC
Something isn't quite making sense with that. If you were only using 3 alts with 10 build slots each, the most that could be produced within 30 days is 6,990 ships. Minimum number of build slots needed for 13,600 battleships in 30 days is 59. Could you clarify how it actually worked? Was it two groups of 3 Alts?
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.11 05:23:00 -
[60]
Edited by: cosmoray on 11/12/2009 05:25:19
Originally by: Pink Kiwi
Originally by: cosmoray
5. Using 3 ALT's put a job in after every 30 hrs for each. 10 runs per ALT of max run BPC
Something isn't quite making sense with that. If you were only using 3 alts with 10 build slots each, the most that could be produced within 30 days is 6,990 ships. Minimum number of build slots needed for 13,600 battleships in 30 days is 59. Could you clarify how it actually worked? Was it two groups of 3 Alts?
Multiple accounts ftw. I have 6 industrial toons with at least 30M SP's. Plus a few others.
note: Even when not running this program I have mineral contracts that use up at least 20B in minerals a week.
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wallenbergaren
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Posted - 2009.12.12 19:05:00 -
[61]
Heh, some BPO owners are very happy now Business booming
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UpINYou
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Posted - 2009.12.12 20:30:00 -
[62]
Exactly,
I wonder how much profit would be garnered if you had 0 isk going out on this venture (with the exception of the insurance of course). If you held a well researched bp, gathered your own materials, built the BS's yourself then insured and popped them. Sounds like it would be quite a wealth creator for the right corp with the resources to do it.
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Halcyon Ingenium
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Posted - 2009.12.12 21:30:00 -
[63]
Well this explains what I've been seeing in the Citadel. I must thank you and your cohorts for the salvage, the rise in raw scordite and pyroxeres prices. You've made my operations very profitable since you started. __________ I'm just an ordinary Caldari trying to turn an ISK. What's wrong with that? |
Yakumo Smith
Gallente No End To Infinity Fleetingly Finite
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Posted - 2009.12.12 22:30:00 -
[64]
Very interesting read.
It certainly shows the different level that the "big boys" operate at isk wise. I had thought about trying a market manipulation after gathering 15B, probably won't now knowing I could be blown out of the water with ease.
I suppose this must be my sig. I'll do something cool with it eventually. |
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Technology and Finance
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Posted - 2009.12.12 22:40:00 -
[65]
Originally by: Yakumo Smith Very interesting read.
It certainly shows the different level that the "big boys" operate at isk wise. I had thought about trying a market manipulation after gathering 15B, probably won't now knowing I could be blown out of the water with ease.
It depends on the market. I'm pretty sure there are items out there where 15b would allow you to set prices.
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ropnes
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Posted - 2009.12.13 00:16:00 -
[66]
So what's gonna happen now? Has this thread spread enough awareness the basket price won't drop below the scam level? 102 for a Rokh is insanely low and I wonder if it'll go that low again
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Andron Blaxcor
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Posted - 2009.12.13 01:04:00 -
[67]
Originally by: ropnes So what's gonna happen now? Has this thread spread enough awareness the basket price won't drop below the scam level? 102 for a Rokh is insanely low and I wonder if it'll go that low again
My unsupported speculation sense in tingling.
It won't for a while. The mineral prices will be kept from going down in the immediate future by insurance. A few wars may well send prices up for a while. When they come down again a lot of people will have forgotten about this or left the game. There may be more people doing it, but the game will also be larger with more people playing so supply will also be larger. So, a mixture of factors, but I wouldn't be surprised if it took less than a year for prices to drop low again. Those of us who remember this thread will cash in.
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Jslice
Amarr SniggWaffe Greater Pathetic Community
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Posted - 2009.12.13 21:36:00 -
[68]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Pre Holy Rage:
1) RMT farmers produced lots of high ends => high ends price drops a lot => low ends price rises
2) Drone regions high ends freighters regularly come to jita, adding to 1)
3) Much important, main systems veldspar roids dry up within 2-4 hours past downtime => low ends supply is heavily capped => low end prices rise. You could indeed go 10 jumps off any decent route, maybe in a no station system and mine, but none really bothered with the effort and logistics.
4) At the same time, the constant huge 0.0 wars push minerals demand up
Post Holy Rage:
1) RMT farmers exterminated, high ends become scarcer (despite WHs), high ends prices rise => less ships are made => less low ends demand => low ends prices drop
2) Drone regions high ends freigthers become rarer => same effect as 1)
3) Low ends are effectively infinite supply. The mining capability given by Hulks can produce FAR exceeding low ends than anyone can hope to use. In the improbable case of a temporary spike, more Hulks are simply deployed to dig more of the effectively infinite supply.
4) Less and less 0.0 wars involving hundreds of capitals => steep reduction in low ends needs.
Just because they did a purge, doesn't mean they haven't come back in full force, you MD people should know this.
Also you say less and less capital wars post holy rage, I would beg to differ. In the months after holy rage to dominion I would say that their has been more capitals killed per month than pre holy rage, lots and lots of monster cap battles have happened I alone have over 150 cap kills to my name in this period and I'm an Aussie player, missing most of the action when we were shooting NC or IT.
So I don't know exactly how true your statement is.
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Seth Ruin
Minmatar Ominous Corp Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.12.20 20:28:00 -
[69]
Somewhat related: is there an easy way to figure out the insurance cost/payout for different ships (other than just buying them and checking it myself? Because I'm broke and lazy)
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RJ Nobel
Nobel Research and Development
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Posted - 2009.12.20 20:53:00 -
[70]
Originally by: Seth Ruin Somewhat related: is there an easy way to figure out the insurance cost/payout for different ships (other than just buying them and checking it myself? Because I'm broke and lazy)
Yes. However, since you're lazy, broke, and unwilling to find the information on your own, what good would the information do you?
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Seth Ruin
Minmatar Ominous Corp Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.12.20 21:07:00 -
[71]
Originally by: RJ Nobel
Originally by: Seth Ruin Somewhat related: is there an easy way to figure out the insurance cost/payout for different ships (other than just buying them and checking it myself? Because I'm broke and lazy)
Yes. However, since you're lazy, broke, and unwilling to find the information on your own, what good would the information do you?
OH MAN YOU TOTALLY BURNED ME!
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Merdaneth
Amarr PIE Inc.
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Posted - 2009.12.26 12:04:00 -
[72]
Honestly, they should try to make Pend Insurance function in such a way that it tries to make a profit.
Currently the way it is setup sort of makes a laughing stock of the whole 'EVE resembles a real economy' thing. You have, effectively, infinite subsidies for wholesale destruction of prime property.
There are real-life equivalents of course, garantueed sale prices EU for several products (after which the excess was destroyed) come to mind.
Just make Pend Insurance raise the insurance fee on those people who regularly lose ships, that's what any sane insurance company would do.
Besides that, people self-destructing ships en masse sort of breaks my immersion. ____
The Illusion of Freedom | The Truth about Slavery |
Seth Ruin
Minmatar Ominous Corp Cult of War
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Posted - 2009.12.27 02:26:00 -
[73]
Originally by: Merdaneth Just make Pend Insurance raise the insurance fee on those people who regularly lose ships, that's what any sane insurance company would do.
And kill nullsec warfare? Why do you hate nullsec residents?
"Sorry, can't go on this op, my premiums are through the roof!"
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Krans Hopeson
Hypercube Ventures
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Posted - 2009.12.27 11:54:00 -
[74]
Originally by: Seth Ruin
Originally by: Merdaneth Just make Pend Insurance raise the insurance fee on those people who regularly lose ships, that's what any sane insurance company would do.
And kill nullsec warfare? Why do you hate nullsec residents?
"Sorry, can't go on this op, my premiums are through the roof!"
Bull**** -- T2 ships never have been covered "properly" by insurance, but 0.0-dwellers fly & lose them anyway. -- "The only stupid question is the one you don't ask." |
Niquita Serov
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Posted - 2010.01.04 12:34:00 -
[75]
Originally by: Seth Ruin
"Sorry, can't go on this op, my premiums are through the roof!"
hahaha, just about crapped myself when I read that.
and thanks for the great read OP!
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