Pages: [1] 2 3 :: one page |
|
Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 04:54:00 -
[1]
Background
As most of you know Eve in game insurance for ships holds (usually) the total mineral basket to a minimum value. When the total value of the mineral basket drops under a certain value it becomes profitable to build ships, insure them (platinum) and self destruct them.
For all my calculations I have a mineral basket price equiavlent to building a ROKH from a BPO (ME 20) using only minerals purchased directly from Jita sell orders. If conditions are normal the mineral basket should be worth at least 115.5M ISK, which is the break even point between production and ship insurance.
Operation
At the beginning of November (as many of you know) the mineral basket had dropped to 102.6, so I could make at least 10M on every Rokh I produced. I devised a plan wondering if I could significantly manipulate the Jita mineral market. Obviously I didn't have the funds to try and directly manipulate the market so I could only attempt this via a brute force attack on the insurance side, by manufacturing and blowing up ships.
Initially I purchased all Rokh's and Abaddon's in Jita under 115.5 and 126M respectively (126 is Abaddon insurance point) and did so through the course of November, totally 365 ships under insurance value. There was no way I could pop all the ships my self (I did about 100) so I sold to contract mainly via SCC channel at 2M under insurance for both parties to make a good profit.
Secondly I started a massive Rokh construction program building 200 Rokh's at a time a few jumps from Jita using 10 run BPC's (quickly wiping out the entire Forge contract market). In total I built 1360 Rokh's in November at an average price of 106.45M (including BPC cost) and an average sell price of 113.5M.
Now to move all these minerals (200B units) would have required 2300 Freighter trips. Luckily I had arranged some massive contracts with mining corps only leaving 420 freighter loads to be moved from Jita. I used many courier contracts and specialist companies of which one stood out (RF Freight).
With all this huge uptake in minerals I thought the market would easily move. Well it didn't, so I went public hoping to push the market further with more entrants. After going public the mineral basket started to move but not by very much.
After all the work the mineral basket currently stands at 110.2 which is still under insurance.
I FAILED
I can't believe after consuming 150B units of Trit alone the market didn't budge, or at least not by much.
Even though my project failed (I did make about 10B in profits from it), I did learn some interesting facts:
1. No matter how much you buy at Jita people will rush to fill any voids. 2. Pyerite is *relatively* the scarcest mineral (on 5 occasions I wiped the entire supply in Jita) 3. RF Freight (Red Frog run by Locin WeEda) is easily the best freight service in Eve. They handled 5-10B ISK contracts requiring 20-40 freighter loads in 24 hr periods easily. 4. Big mineral basket winners in November were Pyerite and Nocx which I wouldn't have predicted. Relative scarcity I suppose. 5. Surprised that the basket is still as low right now.
note: I still have 159 Rokh's left (2 jumps from Jita) for sale at 113.5M ISK each (2M profit per ship). If anyone wants any eve-mail me.
|
Cyntia Lelaert
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 05:16:00 -
[2]
I was there with you since day 1 (and though I was right in the direction of nocx I was horribly wrong re: magnitude). Another SCC semi-regular's megathron BPO is a smoking, threadbare shadow of its former self. And once again, no impact. I think the biggest problem is the number of researched tier3 battleship BPOs. Up until profitable insurance there just wasn't much demand for that product, so relatively few were researched to useful levels.
It just boggles the mind re: how many freighters worth of low ends pass through Jita each and every day though.
|
Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente SRS Industries SRS.
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 05:18:00 -
[3]
I wish I could find a steady supplier of gallente battleships at 2m under insurance - I would pop ships day in day out.
Originally by: "Aristotle" We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.
|
Vasta Magna
Yarex Shipyards
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 05:29:00 -
[4]
Your operation started shortly after I approached you about an insurance bond... where's my tip?
Seriously though, the mineral market's ability to absorb the damage people have been doing is mind-blowing. 2300 freighters worth from just you! And everyone and their dog doing it too. This stuff better be analyzed in the next QEN or we'll have to pod Eyjo.
I only used maybe 50-70 freighters worth, I feel like such a slacker now.
|
Lui Kai
Better Than You
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 06:32:00 -
[5]
Heh, was wondering when someone would make a post like this.
I'll come forward, too. I accounted for 13,662 Abaddons created for someone else to turn into dust, in the last two months.
I also agree on the occasional Pye "bottleneck" and the wonderful service of RFF.
As to "contracts with mining corps" - I found placing buy orders 1 jump from Jita at the price I would have paid in Jita for the same minerals worked just fine for filling a majority of the void. ----------------
|
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 06:56:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Lui Kai Heh, was wondering when someone would make a post like this.
I'll come forward, too. I accounted for 13,662 Abaddons created for someone else to turn into dust, in the last two months.
I also agree on the occasional Pye "bottleneck" and the wonderful service of RFF.
As to "contracts with mining corps" - I found placing buy orders 1 jump from Jita at the price I would have paid in Jita for the same minerals worked just fine for filling a majority of the void.
13662 Abaddons in the last 2 months. I busted my ass to make 1360 and kept accurate records. I had 11 corp contracts for minerals weekly, and I was 2 jumps from Jita which is about the nearest usable system with free slots.
A maxed skilled researcher/industrialist using 11 x 10 run BPC's at a time can make just over 10,000 ships a month.
That is 1.7T in minerals that needs to be hauled, and a huge number of Abaddon BPC's which I know were NOT on the market.
I very much doubt anyone could do that number of ships.
|
Maaltor
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 07:06:00 -
[7]
And I felt good about making 10 Drakes today... holy jeebus
|
Pink Kiwi
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 07:14:00 -
[8]
1360 Rokhs would take about 15b units of trit. You said you used over 150b units of trit. What was the vast majority of that trit used for?
|
Lui Kai
Better Than You
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 07:19:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Lui Kai on 08/12/2009 07:22:57
Originally by: cosmoray
13662 Abaddons in the last 2 months. I busted my ass to make 1360 and kept accurate records.
My records aren't anywhere near as detailed as yours. I was just turning a profit, not conducting a market experiment. I was also able to maintain a high turnover on them, as I found a small industrialist corp that was willing to buy them all (in daily increments, to accomodate their wallets), and was able to maintain a higher production rate than my wallet would otherwise have supported if I had to sit on stock for any time period.
Originally by: cosmoray I had 11 corp contracts for minerals weekly, and I was 2 jumps from Jita which is about the nearest usable system with free slots.
Check Niyabainen. Though I admit, you probably got better margins by making agreements with mining corps.
Originally by: cosmoray A maxed skilled researcher/industrialist using 11 x 10 run BPC's at a time can make just over 10,000 ships a month.
Alts are key, here.
Originally by: cosmoray That is 1.7T in minerals that needs to be hauled, and a huge number of Abaddon BPC's which I know were NOT on the market.
As stated - buy orders at Jita sell prices covered a majority of the void. There were three or four times where a line stood empty for a few hours, due to lack of minerals (or poor attention on my part for when a line would finish), but overall it worked well for me. It could have been more efficient, and attained a higher number - but that would have involved obtaining more blueprints, and inputting more work. I was happy with it at the level I maintained it.
I wasn't using BPCs. I had 6 BPOs of my own, and was able to borrow the remaining 10 used.
Originally by: cosmoray I very much doubt anyone could do that number of ships.
Suit yourself.
----------------
|
Vasta Magna
Yarex Shipyards
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 07:36:00 -
[10]
Originally by: cosmoray I busted my ass to make 1360
Per what? Is that your total? Wondering if you maybe left off a zero.
I just flipped though my journal and I made approx 600 ships. Estimating liberally that's 60,000,000+ m3 of minerals or perhaps 70-75 freighters worth.
Given what you were saying about your logistics it seems you must have made more? (Or, equally likely, I made a critical error in my guesstimation).
|
|
cho0li0
Gallente Universal Exports Cult of War
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 07:44:00 -
[11]
Edited by: cho0li0 on 08/12/2009 07:44:04 Now, imagine how much would things cost without major wars and without insuranse fraud...
...absolutely nothing
|
Lui Kai
Better Than You
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 07:54:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Lui Kai on 08/12/2009 07:58:40
Originally by: Vasta Magna
Originally by: cosmoray I busted my ass to make 1360
Per what? Is that your total? Wondering if you maybe left off a zero.
I just flipped though my journal and I made approx 600 ships. Estimating liberally that's 60,000,000+ m3 of minerals or perhaps 70-75 freighters worth.
Given what you were saying about your logistics it seems you must have made more? (Or, equally likely, I made a critical error in my guesstimation).
In the OP he states that was in November.
I'm guessing you're making a tier 2 or tier 1 battleship. A raven, for example, comes very close to your numbers - at 72 freighters for 600 ships. I don't have the numbers for Rokhs, but that number of Abaddons (which are quite similar for mineral requirements) would be between 200-300 freighters worth (depending on the freighter used and the skill of the pilot).
Edit to amend: To be fair, I'm not sure where the 430 freighter trip number is coming from, as by my math it's between 200-300 for other tier3 battleships at that number. To be equally fair to him, perhaps he meant 430 jumps in a freighter. ----------------
|
Vasta Magna
Yarex Shipyards
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 08:03:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Vasta Magna on 08/12/2009 08:04:24 Edit: nvm, I found my math error. I was off by almost a third on Rokh mineral volume.
|
Pink Kiwi
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 08:10:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Lui Kai
To be fair, I'm not sure where the 430 freighter trip number is coming from, as by my math it's between 200-300 for other tier3 battleships at that number. To be equally fair to him, perhaps he meant 430 jumps in a freighter.
It was 420 freighter loads that were left after mining corps supplied the rest that needed hauling. The total stated freighter loads is 2,300.
The OP has a few numbers that off by a factor of 10. It was either 13,600 Rokhs for 200b units of minerals or 1,360 rokhs for 20b units of minerals.
|
Lui Kai
Better Than You
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 09:01:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Pink Kiwi
It was 420 freighter loads that were left after mining corps supplied the rest that needed hauling. The total stated freighter loads is 2,300.
The OP has a few numbers that off by a factor of 10. It was either 13,600 Rokhs for 200b units of minerals or 1,360 rokhs for 20b units of minerals.
Ah, fair enough. That's what I get for skim-reading. Thank you. ----------------
|
Skarii TuThess
Lansez Innovations
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 10:38:00 -
[16]
As a side note, insurance payouts were/are one of the things most looked at when analysing inflation in Eve, as it is in ISK tap.
What effect do you believe all this insurance fraud will have on this?
For example (if my maths is right) 13360 Abaddons @ 115.5m ISK created each is an additional 1.5T isk created, and most of this now belongs to the mining corps that were contracted / sold minerals in Jita.
Anyway - thanks for the information cosmo, very interesting to read about!
|
Lui Kai
Better Than You
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 11:21:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Skarii TuThess ...fraud as an isk faucet, rather than sink...
I don't think it will have a significant impact on the overall level of isk, as - frankly - situations such as this are definitely on the rare side. Especially one that's lasted as long as this, in the face of such public encouragement to everyone to start in suiciding.
I honestly don't expect the sub-suicide-mineral-basket to endure through this month. ----------------
|
Samroski
J0urneys End
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 12:29:00 -
[18]
Cosmoray, Lui Kai,, you guys are my heroes :)
Always wanted to have a fleet of freighters constantly supplying my operation. Instead I made like 20 BCs in Nov.
|
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 13:32:00 -
[19]
I know how I confused myself reading Lui Kai post.
My number was 13600, I misread my spreadsheet on the number of ships, but didn't misread the minerals or freighter contracts used!!
Sorry Lui, no wonder your numbers looked wierd to me after my effort!!
|
SetrakDark
Caldari DarkCorp Technology and Finance
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 14:28:00 -
[20]
Originally by: cosmoray I FAILED
That's what I took away from all of this.
|
|
Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 14:30:00 -
[21]
Originally by: cosmoray I know how I confused myself reading Lui Kai post.
My number was 13600, I misread my spreadsheet on the number of ships, but didn't misread the minerals or freighter contracts used!!
Sorry Lui, no wonder your numbers looked wierd to me after my effort!!
Good that that's cleared up, still excellent effort and very intersting.
The numbers are staggering really - just the two of you essentially generated over 3 TRILLION isk in the space of a month? You didn't end up with all of it yourself but wow that's a lot of ISK entering the economy.
|
Katiana Swan
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 14:45:00 -
[22]
What I find most interesting is that there was ample supply for the massive amount of minerals used between you two and that prices haven't really moved as a result. This was fairly well advertised as well so it's safe to say there's at least another 20 people doing the same thing on various levels.
|
Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 15:04:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Katiana Swan What I find most interesting is that there was ample supply for the massive amount of minerals used between you two and that prices haven't really moved as a result. This was fairly well advertised as well so it's safe to say there's at least another 20 people doing the same thing on various levels.
Yeah, went through somewhere between 20-30bil worth of ships this way myself. Which really isn't so much considering that it can easily be done in digestible chunks of a few billion at a time.
There is/was serious room for minor players to get in on this.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 15:59:00 -
[24]
Yeah, umm sorry about that
You want to know WHY it failed?
Buy orders.. Buy orders from people who could care less about Insurance and Blowing up ships. You say "Using only minerals purchased directly from Jita sell orders." <--- This is why you failed.
You really want to effect the mineral market, place "BUY" orders 0.02ISK below the lowest Sell order. Watch how quickly it get's filled, but it does have a side effect. There MAY be someone who pennies you. And someone who pennies them. To put the market in an upswing, you need to buy with buy orders, not consume from sell orders.
I would believe that most miners mine, refine, ship to local hub, sell to buy orders. Which marketing people turn around and place directly on the market for a higher price. This would be the reason why Minerals still remain cheap, the miners are selling to marketing people cheap. The marketing people simply don't care how it's used just that they get their minerals sold first.
Amarr for Life |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 16:12:00 -
[25]
Originally by: SencneS Yeah, umm sorry about that
You want to know WHY it failed?
Buy orders.. Buy orders from people who could care less about Insurance and Blowing up ships. You say "Using only minerals purchased directly from Jita sell orders." <--- This is why you failed.
You really want to effect the mineral market, place "BUY" orders 0.02ISK below the lowest Sell order. Watch how quickly it get's filled, but it does have a side effect. There MAY be someone who pennies you. And someone who pennies them. To put the market in an upswing, you need to buy with buy orders, not consume from sell orders.
I would believe that most miners mine, refine, ship to local hub, sell to buy orders. Which marketing people turn around and place directly on the market for a higher price. This would be the reason why Minerals still remain cheap, the miners are selling to marketing people cheap. The marketing people simply don't care how it's used just that they get their minerals sold first.
I did use Buy orders where I could. I just stated for my basket index I calculated from Jita Sell orders.
I had buy orders for Isogen, mexallon, Nocxium, Zydrine and megacyte. The project used up so much Tritanium and Pyerite I couldn't manage any orders I just had to consume whatever was available on the market. I think 5 times I cleared the Pyerite market in Jita as I needed the minerals, and it was still profitable.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 16:42:00 -
[26]
Then I stand corrected, unless you where 0.01ing the buy orders?
The fact is a lot of people have been making ISK off buying mins low and selling them slightly higher even though the overall min basket price is below insurance values. Or maybes it's block keeping down minerals be releasing hundreds of billions worth to prove that Insurance doesn't hold minerals basket up LOL
Amarr for Life |
YouGotRipped
Ewigkeit
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 17:23:00 -
[27]
Well done, Cosmo!
Black Sun Empire |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Brutor tribe
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 22:25:00 -
[28]
Pre Holy Rage:
1) RMT farmers produced lots of high ends => high ends price drops a lot => low ends price rises
2) Drone regions high ends freigthers regularly come to jita, adding to 1)
3) Much important, main systems veldspar roids dry up within 2-4 hours past downtime => low ends supply is heavily capped => low end prices rise. You could indeed go 10 jumps off any decent route, maybe in a no station system and mine, but none really bothered with the effort and logistics.
4) At the same time, the constant huge 0.0 wars push minerals demand up
Post Holy Rage:
1) RMT farmers exterminated, high ends become scarcer (despite WHs), high ends prices rise => less ships are made => less low ends demand => low ends prices drop
2) Drone regions high ends freigthers become rarer => same effect as 1)
3) Low ends are effectively infinite supply. The mining capability given by Hulks can produce FAR exceeding low ends than anyone can hope to use. In the improbable case of a temporary spike, more Hulks are simply deployed to dig more of the effectively infinite supply.
4) Less and less 0.0 wars involving hundreds of capitals => steep reduction in low ends needs.
- Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
|
Lui Kai
Better Than You
|
Posted - 2009.12.08 22:45:00 -
[29]
Originally by: cosmoray
Sorry Lui, no wonder your numbers looked wierd to me after my effort!!
No worries, understandable mistake. ----------------
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2009.12.09 14:26:00 -
[30]
I'm hanging around for the new QEN, it will be a nice read with all these willful ship destructions :) It will reveal either an impact and a noticeable one, or hardly effect graphs at all. If it hardly effects the graphs you'll simply need to setup the game Cosmo :)
Amarr for Life |
|
|
|
|
Pages: [1] 2 3 :: one page |
First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |