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Juraka Furo
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Posted - 2008.05.06 01:32:00 -
[1]
Hello, I am trying to learn more about market movements more and more, but at this point I need someone with a greater insight.
I looked at the price for tritanium over the last year, and it seems to have done a wave sort of thing. Up, down, up, down, up. Right now, it is looking like the peak of one of those waves.
What I'm trying to figure out though is: Will trit go back into another low period, or will it continue to rise due to the now non-existant price cap on (shuttle dealio)
Halp, smart people!
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Amarr Citizen 155
Alternative Methods Research Group
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Posted - 2008.05.06 01:44:00 -
[2]
Read This and THIS and THIS and THIS
---------------------------------------------- Why do it the hard way when you can do it the AMARR way. |
Kwint Sommer
Lothian Quay Industries
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Posted - 2008.05.06 02:16:00 -
[3]
Quote: Hi, I looked at a graph. It has squiggly lines and I think they go up and down because of shuttles? Anyways, I don't really care about that silly stuff but I want to make money. So will you please tell me the future?
Trit's gona burn man! It's going straight down and we'll all have terrible profit margins!
Purchasing and Shipping Moon Minerals |
Juraka Furo
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Posted - 2008.05.06 02:34:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
Quote: Hi, I looked at a graph. It has squiggly lines and I think they go up and down because of shuttles? Anyways, I don't really care about that silly stuff but I want to make money. So will you please tell me the future?
Trit's gona burn man! It's going straight down and we'll all have terrible profit margins!
Thank for the help :]
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Daeva Vios
New Eden Credit Bureau
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Posted - 2008.05.06 03:19:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Kwint Sommer
Quote: Hi, I looked at a graph. It has squiggly lines and I think they go up and down because of shuttles? Anyways, I don't really care about that silly stuff but I want to make money. So will you please tell me the future?
Trit's gona burn man! It's going straight down and we'll all have terrible profit margins!
This made me lol ------------------------------------- NECB |
Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.05.06 06:46:00 -
[6]
Trit is stagnant at the moment until excess supply runs out. People had stockpiled expecting a price rise. Expect prices to skyrocket very soon, that's all I will say. My advice, buy as much trit as you possibly can afford.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.05.06 11:27:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Shadarle Trit is stagnant at the moment until excess supply runs out. People had stockpiled expecting a price rise. Expect prices to skyrocket very soon, that's all I will say. My advice, buy as much trit as you possibly can afford.
Possibly, but until demand for everything else picks up (ammo, ships, etc..) excess inventory will continue to stock pile.
You can see it in the other mins that have yet to really respond to the drop in trit price. Nocx and Mex are still stagnant, and despite Mex trending to 29, Noc to 98, and Iso continuing to plummet, trit has yet to spike in response to the standard mineral basket model.
Something has to change at the upper level demand wise to put enough pressure to consume this excess on the market since the bulk of all cap production is trit and mex... both of which are experiencing drops and glut on the market.
That said though.... I agree with you that eventually correction is in order and trit will see 3.6 again. Mex however will never see 37 for awhile IMHO so to make up the difference either pye or noc will spike.
My money is on both rising, so I've started stock piling both. |
SencneS
Amarr Rebellion Against big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2008.05.06 13:25:00 -
[8]
If it spikes it will be short and sweet. I doubt it will get lower however.
When dealing with something easily obtainable by multiple sources expect spikes to happen, but quick fall off.
As the price rises more people will do what gets them Trit, such as Mine, reprocesses mission loot etc.
It's still the lowest value mineral and will remain the lowest value. After all out of all the minerals you can make the most trit from everything you do. Mining, Mission loot, it doesn't matter so it will always maintain a lower value simply because the supply of it is everywhere.
At the moment you can make 337,456,800 ISK a day per Hulk with trit at 3.4 (Yeah an old number) so keep that in mind when considering price spikes.
Just how much ISK do you need to make per day mining Veldspar. Also keep in mind as Trit raises in price, supply for other minerals will naturally decline as people start to mine more Veldspar etc. So those will spike as well. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.05.06 15:38:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Akita T on 06/05/2008 15:40:33
I seriously want to see the day ALL Veldspar in highsec all across EVE gets stripmined as soon as it "respawns" in belts Too bad there's plenty of Veldspar in missions too... and let's not even start with reprocessed loot.
Of course, the first time I'll see (after this happens) a forum whine post of "this guy came into my mission and started mining my Veldspar 'roids before I could come back to mine them myself, we need agression flagging for this" is the day I'll die laughing.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.05.06 15:45:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 06/05/2008 15:40:33
I seriously want to see the day ALL Veldspar in highsec all across EVE gets stripmined as soon as it "respawns" in belts Too bad there's plenty of Veldspar in missions too... and let's not even start with reprocessed loot.
Of course, the first time I'll see (after this happens) a forum whine post of "this guy came into my mission and started mining my Veldspar 'roids before I could come back to mine them myself, we need agression flagging for this" is the day I'll die laughing.
I for one cannot wait for the speculation and market waves to start once they announce they will start phasing out static belts in favor of scannable ones. |
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.05.06 21:35:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Akita T Edited by: Akita T on 06/05/2008 15:40:33
Of course, the first time I'll see (after this happens) a forum whine post of "this guy came into my mission and started mining my Veldspar 'roids before I could come back to mine them myself, we need agression flagging for this" is the day I'll die laughing.
Shoot the roid noob!
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Raskor
Crossflow Enterprises
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Posted - 2008.05.07 02:48:00 -
[12]
Originally by: SencneS 337,456,800 ISK a day per Hulk with trit at 3.4
How do you quantify that number? And how many hours are you talking? 24 hours of Veldspar mining (you did say trit and hulk) is a bit extreme, even for an avid miner.
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Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.05.07 02:50:00 -
[13]
I'll just recap the events that have affected the price of trit lately:
1) The price cap: The price cap of 3.6 per unit due to refinable npc-sold shuttles availible at 9000 isk per unit acted as a downward pressure whenever prices rose above 3.6. There were people with perfect refine rates, high enough standings to get a 100% yield with 0 station-take and maxed market skills that would gladly refine a billion tritanium and stick it on the market for 0.02 isk per unit profit. That's not to say that this was where a lot of the trit on the market came from, just that prices were physically unable to rise above 3.6 no matter the demand.
Industrialist corporations and alliances that used a lot of tritanium would refine shuttles near their base instead of buying it in a trade hub and hauling it to their base of operations. The availibility of shuttles had the effect of putting an opportunity cost on buying trit in Jita compared with buying shuttles in your base station. If the cost of buying trit in Jita and having someone freighter it to your base put the resulting price per unit above 3.6, it was better to buy shuttles at your base. This meant that given the average freighter contractor price of around 9m for a cross-empire afk-run, the cost of a full freighterload of trit in the trade hubs had to be 9m less than the cost of the equivalent in shuttles.
This put the maximum realistic price for trit at around 3.5 per unit. If it ever rose above 3.5, people would start buying less from the market and start using shuttles instead. The decreased demand would cause the market to self-correct over time back to a price under 3.5 per unit and since it can't physically go above 3.6, the price would only need to fall by about 0.1 isk per unit before people would start buying it again instead of using shuttles. You can see that the price flitted around the 3.5 mark for quite some time.
2) The price cap was "lifted" NPC supply of shuttles was removed from the market, causing the majority of players to think the artificial price cap was gone as most players were only familiar with the shuttle cap. CCP's economist Dr Eyjo posted a devblog saying that the cap was gone and stating categorically that the price of tritanium was going to rise. This caused a massive surge of players buying tritanium, myself included. I bought about 5b worth of tritanium at 3.46 to 3.5 isk per unit and resold some of it for 3.82 isk per unit. It wasn't long before players discovered that Civillian afterburners provided trit at 3.6 isk per unit too. In fact, based on market orders some people knew the very day of the change.
After the civ ab refine rate was posted about on the forums, the economist's devblog comments post filled with people reassuring themselves that the price was rising because the cap had been raised. With phrases like "decreased availability", "difficult to haul" and "lower refine rate" being passed around, they even convinced the good doctor Eyjo that he was right. The devblog remained unchanged and the falsehood that the cap had been increased or removed entirely spread throughout Eve. Over the coming week, we saw people raising their trit prices above 3.6 isk per unit, people buying up all the trit under 3.6 they could find and some individuals getting pretty rich from refining millions of civillian afterburners.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.05.07 02:51:00 -
[14]
3) Word got around After several weeks going by and the price being consistently pushed back down to 3.6 every time it peeked its head over the mark, people started to get the idea that the price wasn't going up any higher. Word started to circulate about civillian afterburners and the cap still being in place, probably helped by me writing an article on the issue for Massively.com. Hoarders began to sell their stock back for a small loss and the price of tritanium began to return to normal. The pressure of the amount of people who are currently fire-saling their tritanium is pushing prices down a little more than usual, that's all.
The price will hover around the 3.4 mark for a while but it will eventually return to its previous place of 3.5 or perhaps closer to 3.6 since the alternative of refining shuttles/civabs at the player's base may not be feasible any more. Rest assured that the price on the market will never go above the cap so long as profiteers exist with perfect refine skills. I do predict an increase in the demand of freighter services for trit runs, though.
4) The trit cap was actually raised This one hasn't happened yet but given the devblog it's going to eventually. The civilian afterburner's days are numbered, they just won't tell us the number. For this reason, holding onto your trit will produce a long-term profit after the caps have been removed but it's certainly no get-rich-quick scheme.
Originally by: Shadarle Trit is stagnant at the moment until excess supply runs out. People had stockpiled expecting a price rise. Expect prices to skyrocket very soon, that's all I will say. My advice, buy as much trit as you possibly can afford.
If you can put the isk to better use, which I know you can, stockpiling trit is a bad idea right now. Sure, this is about as low as it's gonna get and it'll be back at 3.55 in a few weeks but if you want to see some real returns on your investment you'll need to wait for the caps to be lifted significantly. Nobody knows when that will be.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.05.07 13:11:00 -
[15]
What's interesting is how the upward pressure of trit is only exacerbated by the excess of the other mins in the lower basket |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.05.07 17:03:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria What's interesting is how the upward pressure of trit is only exacerbated by the excess of the other mins in the lower basket
Yeah. When any mins drop in price, the others have to pick up the slack to maintain the 70% insurance build cost floor. That pushes trit upward when highend prices drop and the only thing that keeps the trit price in check is the cap. Remember last time zyd, nocx and mega crashed? Trit maxed out at 3.6, pyerite maxed out at a value that I forget and the majority of the slack was picked up by mexallon, which then jumped to over 30 per unit. With no caps, that pressure would have been more evenly spread between the lowend minerals instead of put squarely on mexallon.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS IDLE EMPIRE
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Posted - 2008.05.07 17:33:00 -
[17]
all i can say is stupid carrier nerf! what do i do with that 25million trit hauler drops
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Ardent Industrial Hydra Alliance
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Posted - 2008.05.08 14:27:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Chainsaw Plankton all i can say is stupid carrier nerf! what do i do with that 25million trit hauler drops
Spend the next hour hauling it
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Chira Netanru
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Posted - 2008.05.08 14:30:00 -
[19]
start fitting cynos on your ratting ships to pop for your alliance's jump freighters :P
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Haakkon
Gallente GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.05.08 17:48:00 -
[20]
rat in a rorqual?
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles Zzz
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Posted - 2008.05.31 09:57:00 -
[21]
Buy vast quantities of compressed minerals from me instead? My research services Mineral compression for carrier/Rorqual pilots |
Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS IDLE EMPIRE
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Posted - 2008.05.31 11:27:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Chainsaw Plankton on 31/05/2008 11:27:41
Originally by: BlondieBC
Originally by: Chainsaw Plankton all i can say is stupid carrier nerf! what do i do with that 25million trit hauler drops
Spend the next hour hauling it
someone already did that and the hanger is/was full, given the best i can fly is a badger and the nearest station was 7 jumps away and in not quite friendly territory well....
oh and 3 haulers spawned each one dropping 25million
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Maestro Del'Tirith
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Posted - 2008.06.01 10:41:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Shadarle My advice, buy as much trit as you possibly can afford.
Could Shadarle own some trit he wants to sell?
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Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2008.06.01 12:59:00 -
[24]
The cap removal doesn't really seem to have had that big an effect me thinks. Lot of speculating but in the end trit prices are once again following the up/down wave.
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Lady Godgifu
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Posted - 2008.06.01 19:23:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Shadarle Trit is stagnant at the moment until excess supply runs out. People had stockpiled expecting a price rise. Expect prices to skyrocket very soon, that's all I will say. My advice, buy as much trit as you possibly can afford.
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Dariah Stardweller
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Posted - 2008.06.02 08:01:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Lady Godgifu
Originally by: Shadarle Trit is stagnant at the moment until excess supply runs out. People had stockpiled expecting a price rise. Expect prices to skyrocket very soon, that's all I will say. My advice, buy as much trit as you possibly can afford.
Prices did rise, and then they came down again. Maybe when they fix the CA you will see a similar rise (and fall). I personally don't see trit staying at 4+ for long amounts of time, simply too easy to get the stuff...
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