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PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
Gallente aurorae pacificas
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Posted - 2008.04.20 17:37:00 -
[1]
In particular I was wondering what people think is causing the Megacyte spike we are currently seeing.
Also Mexallon is hovering around a 10mth low. What has caused this and whats peoples opinions on where the other mid range minerals will settle in the next few months? Is the trit surge going to effect them at all?
Aussie TZ pvp corp AuPac is recruiting |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.04.20 17:42:00 -
[2]
Yes, yes, no, maybe, and kind of.
To Shar -verb: 1 - To say what you mean. 2 - To say what it means. 3 - To say something mean. |
Ava Santiago
Minmatar
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Posted - 2008.04.20 18:52:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Shar Tegral Yes, yes, no, maybe, and kind of.
With such simple, clear and concise analysis of the market, how could anyone be steered wrong? Concord doesn't provide consequences. Concord provides insurance payouts. |
Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2008.04.20 19:18:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Ava Santiago With such simple, clear and concise analysis of the market, how could anyone be steered wrong?
Well, there does lie the risk that someone could ask a vague or ambiguous question. Never can tell what kind of answer you might get from those.
To Shar -verb: 1 - To say what you mean. 2 - To say what it means. 3 - To say something mean. |
Raskor
Crossflow Enterprises
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Posted - 2008.04.20 19:48:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Shar Tegral Yes, yes, no, maybe, and kind of.
And here I didn't think all those questions could be answered with "yes" and "no" answers.
Originally by: Shar Tegral Well, there does lie the risk that someone could ask a vague or ambiguous question. Never can tell what kind of answer you might get from those.
Didn't seem all that vague or ambiguous to me. Shrug.
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jongalt
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Posted - 2008.04.20 20:10:00 -
[6]
paddy,
go to eve-search.com and search for some threads by Akita T (posted in the Market Discussion Forum) in the last year or so.
-jg.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.04.20 21:05:00 -
[7]
Short version... minerals never change prices individually, they usually go as a whole. One lowend (in particular, tritanium) spikes, that means some other minerals have to drop.
The reason is that most of the minerals in EVE get processed into ships rather than anything else. The price of T1 non-capital ships is capped at the bottom by the insurance (at 70% of base cost, you're better off insuring and blowing up rather than selling), but it's also PSYCHOLOGICALLY capped at the top (well, not so much capped per se, but rather as demand dropping heavily as prices go up even a bit above base price).
So, barring sudden shifts in supply (the introduction of the drone regions causing a heavy zydrine price drop, the NPC trit-refineable nerfs and then goons hunting miners in highsec increasing tritanium prices, etc) or demand (expected carrier/mothership nerfs and the relatively ba cost-effectiveness of jump freighters causing a drop in capship demand, causing a relative tritanium demand drop alongside a general demand drop) that can cause sudden (but short-lived) fluctuations, the "basket price" of minerals (that is, a typical percentage of each kind of mineral, in the rough proportions ship building uses) remains relatively stable between 80% to 100% of base price.
Yes, that was the short version
1|2|3|4|5. |
Sinbad56
Caldari Rionnag Alba Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2008.04.20 21:06:00 -
[8]
Just a guess, as trit is no longer as easily avaliable through the reproccessing of shuttle (which acted as a price cap) more people are mining for it as it is more profitable than before. However instead of mining for just veldspar (which contains a lot of trit) people are mining more middle end roids, which as well as producing a fair amount of trit also holds more mid range minerals ie Mellaxon, hence supply of mexallon has increased leading to a price decrease; and visa versa with Megacyte less people are mining the higer end minerals where the risk involved is higher, so the price of these minerals has gone up due to a decrease in supply.
Disclaimer: I'm not an expert on economics certainly not eve-economics and I've never mined before in my life, so this is prob all wrong and this is only my opnion. |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.04.20 21:58:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Sinbad56 Just a guess, as trit is no longer as easily avaliable through the reproccessing of shuttle
Sure it is. Not shuttles, but civillian aterburners give the same price for trit that shuttles did. The cap is completely unchanged.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Vanessa Vale
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Posted - 2008.04.20 22:38:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Nyphur
Originally by: Sinbad56 Just a guess, as trit is no longer as easily avaliable through the reproccessing of shuttle
Sure it is. Not shuttles, but civillian aterburners give the same price for trit that shuttles did. The cap is completely unchanged.
It's nice to see that CCP knows their game well.
Minmatar Boost Brigade |
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Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.04.20 23:02:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Vanessa Vale It's nice to see that CCP knows their game well.
It gets a bit old after a few years :/. To be fair, there is a LOT of complexity to Eve and I'm sure not every dev discusses every change with all the other devs so it's entirely reasonable for a few mistakes to pass by. They should be caught before release, though. I mean why would they openly announce that they were removing the trit cap from shuttles and not do a simple database query to look for other modules with a similar refine rate for tritanium?
A more complex model would use average market values of minerals to determine how much all the non-tritanium minerals are worth in each npc-sold refinable product and then the remainder (the sale price minus that value) could be divided by the amount of tritanium the item refines into. That would give a list of items and the current price-cap of trit using them. Obviously those caps wouldn't be stable if the object used a lot of minerals other than tritanium but I'm sure there are many refinables that use lots of tritanium and a little of something else. The obvious solution is to remove all npc-sold refinables except civillian mods and make civillian mods unrefineable just like newbie guns and basic mining lasers.
Since CCP made their intentions clear with the devblog, I assume they're going to fix the afterburners too. Hold on to your trit.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Kahega Amielden
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Posted - 2008.04.21 00:28:00 -
[12]
They should just decrease trit needed for ship construction, increase the need of other materials. Oh, and anything other than veldspar should be -damn- hard to find in hisec
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vanBuskirk
Caldari
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Posted - 2008.04.21 09:02:00 -
[13]
I don't think it's a "spike" at all. Reason? For both of them, the change in the mineral content of Glossy Compound. It used to contain 6 megacyte and 4 nocxium; it now contains 3 megacyte, 4 nocxium and 210 mexallon. This means an increased supply of mex, of course. I don't play much, unfortunately, and get maybe 1 drone level 4 mission per week - but that one mission typically gives me about 100k mex.
Therefore, I think that change is probably permanent.
---------------------------------------------- "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."
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Robacz
Essence Trade Essence Enterprises
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Posted - 2008.04.21 09:07:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Vanessa Vale
Originally by: Nyphur
Originally by: Sinbad56 Just a guess, as trit is no longer as easily avaliable through the reproccessing of shuttle
Sure it is. Not shuttles, but civillian aterburners give the same price for trit that shuttles did. The cap is completely unchanged.
It's nice to see that CCP knows their game well.
To be fair, this civilian AB thing is much harder to (ab)use than shuttles were. They are only sold in newbie npc stations (therefore you need specific standings), sell orders have low quantity (so it is a lot of clicking) and they are not exactly good for transporting (if you can't reprocess there).
But yeah, civilian modules should be unreprocessable like newbie ships are.
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Lt Angus
Caldari Wicked Crew
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Posted - 2008.04.21 10:04:00 -
[15]
Wondering if they will fix the mid range mins before its too late, having minerals where supply > demand without anyone even mining them can only be a bad thing, mining should always have to stretch to meet demand.
Shhhh, Im hunting Badgers |
Lord Fitz
Antares Fleet Yards SMASH Alliance
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Posted - 2008.04.21 10:45:00 -
[16]
Originally by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik In particular I was wondering what people think is causing the Megacyte spike we are currently seeing.
Also Mexallon is hovering around a 10mth low. What has caused this and whats peoples opinions on where the other mid range minerals will settle in the next few months? Is the trit surge going to effect them at all?
From the Trinity boost patch patchnotes: The material gained from recycling Glossy Compound has been changed.
The actual change was a halving in the amount of megacyte from 6 to 3 (and this is the only drone alloy that produces megacyte), and the addition of 210 Mexallon to it instead.
Since the drone regions were largely what drove the spike in Mexallon, without them requiring lots to be imported that is falling off, as is some of the static megacyte supply. There is hardly 'excess' mex coming from the regions with the balanced change, but it has reduced the demand quite abit. There is of course lots of excess iso/nocx, thus the reason for their downfall as valuable minerals. You also get alot of Iso from Kernite, which was popular to mine with high mex prices.
This was a fairly finely balanced change, so it's hardly going to result in huge megacyte prices and a collapse in teh mexallon price, but only a fool would have dismissed the change as insignificant, it obviously has a substantial effect overall.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.04.21 18:55:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Robacz
To be fair, this civilian AB thing is much harder to (ab)use than shuttles were. They are only sold in newbie npc stations (therefore you need specific standings), sell orders have low quantity (so it is a lot of clicking) and they are not exactly good for transporting (if you can't reprocess there).
But yeah, civilian modules should be unreprocessable like newbie ships are.
You can buy unlimited amount of them at the highest price, which I gather is equivalent to 4.4 isk per unit of trit. So the cap has risen a bit, but it's still there.
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Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.04.21 21:08:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Tasko Pal You can buy unlimited amount of them at the highest price, which I gather is equivalent to 4.4 isk per unit of trit. So the cap has risen a bit, but it's still there.
Where are you getting this info? You can buy a feasibly unlimited amount of them for the minimum price, which hasn't ever increased at all in the entire history of the module. The bloody sell orders are for over 8 million units each.. that's half a billion trit per sell order before they'll increase in price, with what looks like about a dozen sell orders per region.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.04.21 22:49:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Nyphur
Originally by: Tasko Pal You can buy unlimited amount of them at the highest price, which I gather is equivalent to 4.4 isk per unit of trit. So the cap has risen a bit, but it's still there.
Where are you getting this info? You can buy a feasibly unlimited amount of them for the minimum price, which hasn't ever increased at all in the entire history of the module. The bloody sell orders are for over 8 million units each.. that's half a billion trit per sell order before they'll increase in price, with what looks like about a dozen sell orders per region.
I thought they were like most NPC goods and went up in price when you bought a ton of them. Makes sense that they don't. And for some reason, I thought they were 833 units each not 8 million. I've been very bad in this thread.
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Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.04.21 23:35:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Tasko Pal I thought they were like most NPC goods and went up in price when you bought a ton of them.
They do, but the number available makes the effect negligible. There are enough sell orders to supply the entirety of eve at 3.6 per unit.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Ardent Industrial Hydra Alliance
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Posted - 2008.04.22 06:19:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Akita T
Yes, that was the short version
How many pages is the long version??
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BlondieBC
Minmatar Ardent Industrial Hydra Alliance
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Posted - 2008.04.22 06:21:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Nyphur
Originally by: Sinbad56 Just a guess, as trit is no longer as easily avaliable through the reproccessing of shuttle
Sure it is. Not shuttles, but civillian aterburners give the same price for trit that shuttles did. The cap is completely unchanged.
Generally true, however since many few stations have civ afterburners compared to shuttles, i am seeing the price cap exceed in more remote areas.
Are you really going to travel 10 hops to save .2 on the cost of trit for a cruiser?
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Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2008.04.22 06:47:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Kylar Renpurs on 22/04/2008 06:48:15
Originally by: BlondieBC
Are you really going to travel 10 hops to save .2 on the cost of trit for a cruiser?
Well, look at it this way. if you're not an industrialist, you don't care what the price is really, so long as you can afford it and you actually need it.
If you're an industrialist, you're probably manufacturing in bulk. 30 million trit for 100 Caracals. Fairy nuff. '.2' isk saved, for those 100 caracal runs, you just wasted 600k isk. Using my usual rates of return, that's between one and a half to three hours of manufacturing -> profit time wasted.
Point I'm making is if it's a one-off convenience factor, I'd buy a cruiser for 10 million if the closest one was 10 jumps away. But if my goal is manufacturing efficiency, I'll cut as many corners as needed. And if you're a manufacturer and not doing to bulk capacity you're not really putting in what's needed.
I mean, .2 isk on trit is a saving of 5%. .2 isk on the price of zydrine,,, yeah, forget it.
Improve Market Competition! |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft
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Posted - 2008.04.22 12:07:00 -
[24]
Originally by: BlondieBC Generally true, however since many few stations have civ afterburners compared to shuttles, i am seeing the price cap exceed in more remote areas.
Are you really going to travel 10 hops to save .2 on the cost of trit for a cruiser?
There are civ ab stations near all major industrialist ports and plenty of pilots williong to play the "recycle for 0.01 profit" game just like they did with shuttles. Nothing's changed significantly at all. I won't go 10 hops to save 0.2 on trit but I WILL get my trit in a trade hub where someone else is doing it for 0.01 to 0.1 isk profit per unit. That's the way it's always been/; Prices are only rising at the moment due to speculation and the economist screwing up by telling everyone the cap was rising.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
abraheam
Dirty Denizens
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Posted - 2008.04.22 19:22:00 -
[25]
Edited by: abraheam on 22/04/2008 19:22:47 After spending a good deal of time in the drone regions I am convinced that mineral prices are directly affected by any change in "drone poo" drops.
*hint hint*
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2008.04.22 21:08:00 -
[26]
Originally by: BlondieBC
Originally by: Akita T
Yes, that was the short version
How many pages is the long version??
Linkage Check for yourself
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PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik
Gallente aurorae pacificas
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Posted - 2008.04.23 02:30:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Lord Fitz
Originally by: PaddyPaddy Nihildarnik In particular I was wondering what people think is causing the Megacyte spike we are currently seeing.
Also Mexallon is hovering around a 10mth low. What has caused this and whats peoples opinions on where the other mid range minerals will settle in the next few months? Is the trit surge going to effect them at all?
From the Trinity boost patch patchnotes: The material gained from recycling Glossy Compound has been changed.
The actual change was a halving in the amount of megacyte from 6 to 3 (and this is the only drone alloy that produces megacyte), and the addition of 210 Mexallon to it instead.
Since the drone regions were largely what drove the spike in Mexallon, without them requiring lots to be imported that is falling off, as is some of the static megacyte supply. There is hardly 'excess' mex coming from the regions with the balanced change, but it has reduced the demand quite abit. There is of course lots of excess iso/nocx, thus the reason for their downfall as valuable minerals. You also get alot of Iso from Kernite, which was popular to mine with high mex prices.
This was a fairly finely balanced change, so it's hardly going to result in huge megacyte prices and a collapse in teh mexallon price, but only a fool would have dismissed the change as insignificant, it obviously has a substantial effect overall.
Ouch,
I totally missed that one. That would explain it. Thanks.
Aussie TZ pvp corp AuPac is recruiting |
Angela Toren
Amarr Toren Shipyards
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Posted - 2008.04.23 14:38:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Angela Toren on 23/04/2008 14:44:30
The good doctor Eyjo will know.
I bet he is busy right now ploting charts and curves to unravel this mess like some kind of mad scientist with smoke coming from his ears . I think it's a mixture between glossy compound nerf and the shuttle nerf. Less megacyte and less trit, many industrialists buy mega with money they make on trit. With less mega which is harder to obtain the price will rise but trit and other lowends will inevitably follow suit of the highends even by a small margin.
So what we are seeing here is the beginning of a price hike of mega to higher level where it will remain constant for a while and also the beginning of a small general increase in the price mins accros the low end board.
_______
Oh Mindy... |
Uncle Mo
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Posted - 2008.04.24 01:33:00 -
[29]
Why can't CCP just make a code that says, 'no civilian mods can be reprocessed'? Would that be so awful?
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Ryzolette
Deer Hunters
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Posted - 2008.04.24 05:03:00 -
[30]
I justed checked prices from eve-central mineral feed, assuming this is roughly accurate prices are really umm "different".
Trit 3.18 Pye 4.37 Mex 29.00 Iso 59.00 Nocx 98.99 Zyd 2,412.00 Mega 2,600.00 Morph 8,352.57
I'm guessing Trit is so low thanks to civilian afterburner refines. Iso is low though! I remember about a year or so ago it was 115. And Zydrine being cheaper than Megacyte what the **** is with that? Support fixing the UI Support EVE History, fill in what you know |
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