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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.19 11:51:00 -
[1]
Some of us just love a good doom & gloom story.
I admit that i do, but when it has come to PLEX I have tried to be optimistic and even invested substantially into them. However, with the recent devblog and supply-side data, I'm afraid my doom & gloom side has taken over.
Looking at the red & blue lines from April/May, we can see how at the start of May the amount of plex used for subs was higher than the number created (i.e. red higher than blue). That put the sales prices in the hands of those with the diminishing stockpiles (notice the yellow line dips right there).
Looking at the blue line in June/July, we can see that people continued to create plex with real cash at an increasing rate. However, plex use flattened (red). This caused a steady increase in stockpiles.
Looking generally at the yellow line, we can see several periods where stockpiles increased significantly. In Feb, there was a similar pattern as in May, but there wasn't a massive price spike.
So what happened?
What seems to be different about May/June is that massive speculation took place, and with the 400m prices it seems that the general interest in collecting plex as trade items became popular.
The plex stockpiles doubled in June/July, ending at over 16,000 plex sitting around collecting dust at the start of this month. Even with flat usage demand, the prices have remained stable. We can see that plex usage nose dived in June, indicating a decoupling of the price from the actual usage.
Why?
Why haven't prices dropped below 300m?
I believe that people who invested in plex with ISK have a natural desire to hold until the prices get them a reasonable return. Since prices are stable, they are holding out in good faith.
Similarly, I believe that there could be a significant number of plex created with cash whereby the owners are holding tight in hopes for a bit more out of them. These people will become increasingly interested in cashing out, especially if prices get volatile again.
Finally, we have a number of people who may have invested at 300-310m with the expectation of using the plex later for subs. Perhaps they perceived that prices would go up again and thus bought what they could the moment prices landed back down.
What portions of the over 16,000 plex are held by each type? How many of them will start selling at under 300m if the current floor should collapse?
I don't see any way for plex prices to rebound unless the usage rate jumped from 800 to something like 1000 in Aug/Sept. I don't see the usage rate increasing significantly unless prices dropped to 225m-250m.
I see a plexapocalype on the horizon.
Volume increasing. Prices flat. Supply increasing exponentially.
Demand flat.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.19 11:55:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Nyota Sol on 19/08/2009 12:04:22
One further question is... what could 200-300 billion in sudden disposable cash do to the wider markets?
That's the rough value of the "excess" plex stockpiles.
And one further thought. I think CCP's open push for people to buy plex makes sense from a simple marketing and business model point of view. However, I assume they realize the potential implications of letting the community know about this massive supply-side build up. They want more people to buy plex and the more i've thought about this, the more i suspect this recent devblog was published with an interest in seeing much lower plex prices. I personally would welcome 225m plexes and i suspect CCP would too.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
quygen
Minmatar Acting Neutral
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Posted - 2009.08.19 12:44:00 -
[3]
Spend all on cheap Trit around the universe and relist at higher price? Please resize your sig to a maximum of 400 x 120 - Mitnal
^ You seen it CCP =) Now go fix! |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.08.19 12:54:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 19/08/2009 12:55:21 What happens?
Support - Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2009.08.19 13:19:00 -
[5]
A good proportion of it could be people like myself who bought a large number of the eve box sets cheaply. There's no real down side to hanging on to a PLEX in the hope of a price rise for someone like me, since I can always use them for extending my subscription.
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glas mir
Reaction Scientific
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Posted - 2009.08.19 13:24:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 19/08/2009 12:55:21 What happens?
Support
fail link, it doesn't work, http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/support.asp would probably work.
if factors keep banging down, support doesn't last forever
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.19 13:49:00 -
[7]
Thanks for the tip on the "support" concept.
I guess I am saying that the support level is going to crack and likely reset at a much lower price whereby the plex usage rate will actually increase. The current support level does not appear to be based on real plex use/demand.
It's possible that all 10,000 excess plex will be sold at 300m or higher, but i really don't see how this situation can be maintained.
Originally by: quygen Spend all on cheap Trit around the universe and relist at higher price?
I approve of this plan!
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Midas Man
Caldari Dzark Innovations
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Posted - 2009.08.19 15:05:00 -
[8]
IMO its a manipulation fallout
GTC's on the forum have been victim to a long time upward manipulation. In Plex's we have seen 2 massive manipulations. People have claimed to have made money and sold out before the crash.
Look back to when plex's were first released and all the talk of 1 bil for a 60 day GTC and so ~500mil for plex in the forums.
Once the first manipulation gained momentum, the prices moved up very quickly to 400mil, alot of people took to the forum rumors of 500mil+. The people/person behind the first manipulation probably sold all their plex's to the new batch of "sheep" and stopped he upward push on prices. Price crashed back to the 300 mil or so that was the happy medium before the manipulation.
The people who stock piled at 350-400 will still be holding onto large quantities of plex's awaiting this fabled 500mil.
On the back of this we know from history that higher gametime cost (isk) increases peoples willingness to spend real money on GTC to sell for isk.
We also have the wide advertising campaine ccp have been making since the plex introduction to make people aware they can buy isk legitimatly further increasing supply. IMO demand wouldn't be affected too much by this the people who are rich enough ingame to pay with isk probably already do, those that cannot afford to buy GTC for $ will already be using isk for GTC and if they aren't they are unlikely to be able to generate the isk especially with the doubling of the cost of GT that came about after 30 day GTC's were removed.
ATM most people have a perception that 300mil for a plex is ok so there is still alot of consumers paying the price. The spread is usually at 2-3% between buy/sell in Jita allowing those with good standings, trade skills to day trade on them (buy in busy server periods sell in quiet server periods and you can increase that spread to 5-10%) so alot of resellers are still paying the 300mil price.
since the blog stating the massive stock piles of plex's available the prices are falling a few mil a day as more and more people realise the folly of investing more into them.
A crash is inevitable and Im hoping for the 150 mil per plex, 300 mil per 60 GTC. Bring back the old price of game time.
1 last though that I have no evidence on but may be worth considering, since the ghost training nerf I would gamble that demand for 30 day cards took a hit as alot of character farmers quit their jobs.
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.19 15:20:00 -
[9]
Let's factor in that CCP crushed some 6000 accounts last month, which could help explain that dip in plex usage (just a hunch).
Originally by: Midas Man
since the blog stating the massive stock piles of plex's available the prices are falling a few mil a day as more and more people realise the folly of investing more into them.
A crash is inevitable and Im hoping for the 150 mil per plex, 300 mil per 60 GTC. Bring back the old price of game time.
While 150m is a nice thought, I imagine another "support" floor in the low 200s because i think a LOT of people would consider that a very reasonable price.
From my limited observations of recent trading, I suspect there are quite a lot of people heavily invested in plex that are quickly buying out sell orders in the 290-305m range. However, while that could be a successful strategy of maintaining support in the 300m levels, I don't see how it can be sustained in all the major trade regions over many weeks.
There's just too many plex out there burning pockets, imo.
Likewise, just as people might rally to maintain 300m prices, we could potentially see people organizing to drop them below 300m in some regions. The moment a significant number of the people holding these 16,000 plex see sub-300m prices becoming widespread, we're likely to see panic and competition to dump them.
While i personally would like to see cheaper plex, this "plexapocalypse" could have nasty ripple effects on the markets. A lot of that raw cash could go right into more speculation... like billions of trit.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.08.19 15:32:00 -
[10]
Quote:
fail link, it doesn't work
It's why I usually link stuff without using the url addy (but then people cry at me). It cuts parentheses I see.
Quote:
While 150m is a nice thought, I imagine another "support" floor in the low 200s because i think a LOT of people would consider that a very reasonable price
Also recall that supports and resistances usually focus on round "easy to feel" numbers, 200 / 250 / 300 etc are good candidates.
- Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Midas Man
Caldari Dzark Innovations
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Posted - 2009.08.19 15:43:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Nyota Sol Let's factor in that CCP crushed some 6000 accounts last month, which could help explain that dip in plex usage (just a hunch).
this is true and i missed it
Originally by: Nyota Sol
While 150m is a nice thought, I imagine another "support" floor in the low 200s because i think a LOT of people would consider that a very reasonable price.
This is a possibility alot of people with spare isk might start buying them around the 200 mark.
It doesn't look good 16,000 plex gathering dust is alot of downward pressure. If CCP's figures in the plex blog are correct 8k are used but 10k are being created over a 7 day period at the end of july. If that trend doesn't stop and panic starts then we have the makings of a serious crash. Even with no panic if 2k more per week keep getting created (people buying plex generally want the isk now) we could see big reductions in price (which in itself will slow the creation of plex's) but its certainly looking bleak for those with stock of them.
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Yakumo Smith
Gallente No End To Infinity Fleetingly Finite
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Posted - 2009.08.19 16:45:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Yakumo Smith on 19/08/2009 16:45:18 Yeah, once the rate starts to hit towards 200m i'd consider subbing my main for a few years.
At that point dropping 15B into the plex market would be win win. Either the prices would rise up again after hitting the new support (and I make a quick buck selling the plex on) or i'd just add the game time.
I suppose this must be my sig. I'll do something cool with it eventually. |
Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.19 16:53:00 -
[13]
Edited by: Nyota Sol on 19/08/2009 16:54:26
Originally by: Midas Man
It doesn't look good 16,000 plex gathering dust is alot of downward pressure. If CCP's figures in the plex blog are correct 8k are used but 10k are being created over a 7 day period at the end of july. If that trend doesn't stop and panic starts then we have the makings of a serious crash. Even with no panic if 2k more per week keep getting created (people buying plex generally want the isk now) we could see big reductions in price (which in itself will slow the creation of plex's) but its certainly looking bleak for those with stock of them.
That's my question, about the nature of the downward pressure. And let's be clear, there is no sign of upwards pressure on the horizon beyond existing investors wanting to maintain the current floor at 300m.
It may not hit panic levels for a while, even if prices broke 300m in the coming weeks. I dont think a panic hits until the general plex market permanently seems to be under 305m.
I think plex started being created at increasing rates based on long-term investment interests and not for quick cash turn-around or sub use. I suspect that the moment the sub-300m buy orders come to dominate in a few regions, we're going to see many smart investors bailing quickly.
However, I suspect a lot of the heavily invested people/groups may hold out for a while. Maybe they will see the writing on the wall once prices keep heading downwards towards 250-275m. I think the panic hits once everybody fully understands the prices are not going to ever come back up to 350m range and thus profit for investors.
Of course, this all assumes we're not seeing and going to see a major increase in plex usage.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
KaarBaak
Minmatar Squirrel Team
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Posted - 2009.08.19 17:22:00 -
[14]
Consider also: CCP is proud of the impact 'safe' PLEX conversion of RM->ISK has on the RMT market vs non-sanctioned ISK sellers. If the sell price of purchased ETCs gets too low, what is the risk of players returning to those ISK sellers?
<don tin-foil hat>
Perhaps it's those ISK sellers that are working on a plan to crash the market in order to drive ISK purchasers to the non-sanctioned ISK sellers? After all, there's more money in stolen credit cards and accounts than there is in PLEX resale.
</tin-foil hat>
KB KB
Beware the beast Man, for he is the Devil's pawn. Alone among God's primates, he kills for sport or lust or greed. Yea, he will murder his brother to possess his brother's land. |
Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.19 18:30:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Nyota Sol on 19/08/2009 18:30:39
Originally by: KaarBaak Consider also: CCP is proud of the impact 'safe' PLEX conversion of RM->ISK has on the RMT market vs non-sanctioned ISK sellers. If the sell price of purchased ETCs gets too low, what is the risk of players returning to those ISK sellers?
<don tin-foil hat>
Perhaps it's those ISK sellers that are working on a plan to crash the market in order to drive ISK purchasers to the non-sanctioned ISK sellers? After all, there's more money in stolen credit cards and accounts than there is in PLEX resale.
</tin-foil hat>
KB
wat
First of all, CCP has strong interest in an increased rate of PLEX creation, regardless of the ISK value. Let's be clear on that. I'm sure they understand the theoretical risk of people being driven into illegal black markets, but I think the real fuel here is demand for subs not RMT.
Being able to safely "buy" ISK is very valuable even if it was at a 200m swap price. And i think we'd all agree that if prices were in the 200-250m range, we'd see a significant increase in the total volume of PLEX being utilized for subscriptions.
As for this silly notion of ISK sellers conspiring to crash the market to drive people out of PLEX creation, I don't know where to begin. These are the same fools that use capslock spam as marketing. I'd wager that most of those businesses make their income from other games and that Eve is a loss for them. As CCP said, their usual angle is credit card fraud and hacking. I suspect many will give up on Eve due to the PLEX market and increase account banning.
In fact, that could account for some of the increase in PLEX creation that we've seen since operation RAGE or whatever it's called. People spending real money on ISK have discretionary funds. Whether that expense gets them 200m or 400m is really arbitrary. They are likely to spend it either way... and a risk-free option has stronger overall value (CCP just needs to make sure the risk is there).
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2009.08.19 20:40:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Nyota Sol Edited by: Nyota Sol on 19/08/2009 18:30:39
Originally by: KaarBaak Consider also: CCP is proud of the impact 'safe' PLEX conversion of RM->ISK has on the RMT market vs non-sanctioned ISK sellers. If the sell price of purchased ETCs gets too low, what is the risk of players returning to those ISK sellers?
<don tin-foil hat>
Perhaps it's those ISK sellers that are working on a plan to crash the market in order to drive ISK purchasers to the non-sanctioned ISK sellers? After all, there's more money in stolen credit cards and accounts than there is in PLEX resale.
</tin-foil hat>
KB
wat
I think what he's hinting at is that CCP can easily manipulate the price of PLEX buy creating buy orders at an arbitrary level. ISK doesn't cost them anything, after all.
PLEX are effectively a fiat currency.
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.08.19 21:33:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Nyota Sol
I admit that i do, but when it has come to PLEX I have tried to be optimistic and even invested substantially into them. However, with the recent devblog and supply-side data, I'm afraid my doom & gloom side has taken over.
Nyota, we talked about this in CCG a while back. I was right on the mark with what I was saying was happening in the PLEX market. If you want to go into this in detail sometime we can.
The one thing that was lacking for us to get a solid grip on the PLEX market was the ratio between creation and consumption. With the Dev Blog we now know this.
You had people like Clare Bear that were shouting "PLEX for a billion by the end of the year!". This was always unsubstantiated. I have gone over the whys of the price spike in June/July and why it was a bubble not a long term trend. PLEX does have a "fair and proper" value at about +/-300 million. PLEX will not rise do to the fact of all the speculators that are holding PLEX. If the market manages to edge up there will be enough players to liquidate their holdings to swamp the market and push the price down again.
With the Dev Blog I do agree, PLEX for 250 million is in the future. Jita is holding to the 300 million mark desperately but, in other regions PLEX are all ready at the 270 million ISK range... and falling. If this Blog had only come out a few weeks ago when I was loading up on PLEX at 300 million, ah, such is life.
PLEX as a manipulated and speculated market item is dead after this Dev Blog. Also the cries for ever rising GTC prices have also died. Long Live Cheap PLEX!!!!
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Helena C
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Posted - 2009.08.19 21:39:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Nyota Sol Edited by: Nyota Sol on 19/08/2009 18:30:39
Originally by: KaarBaak Consider also: CCP is proud of the impact 'safe' PLEX conversion of RM->ISK has on the RMT market vs non-sanctioned ISK sellers. If the sell price of purchased ETCs gets too low, what is the risk of players returning to those ISK sellers?
<don tin-foil hat>
Perhaps it's those ISK sellers that are working on a plan to crash the market in order to drive ISK purchasers to the non-sanctioned ISK sellers? After all, there's more money in stolen credit cards and accounts than there is in PLEX resale.
</tin-foil hat>
KB
wat
First of all, CCP has strong interest in an increased rate of PLEX creation, regardless of the ISK value. Let's be clear on that. I'm sure they understand the theoretical risk of people being driven into illegal black markets, but I think the real fuel here is demand for subs not RMT.
Being able to safely "buy" ISK is very valuable even if it was at a 200m swap price. And i think we'd all agree that if prices were in the 200-250m range, we'd see a significant increase in the total volume of PLEX being utilized for subscriptions.
As for this silly notion of ISK sellers conspiring to crash the market to drive people out of PLEX creation, I don't know where to begin. These are the same fools that use capslock spam as marketing. I'd wager that most of those businesses make their income from other games and that Eve is a loss for them. As CCP said, their usual angle is credit card fraud and hacking. I suspect many will give up on Eve due to the PLEX market and increase account banning.
In fact, that could account for some of the increase in PLEX creation that we've seen since operation RAGE or whatever it's called. People spending real money on ISK have discretionary funds. Whether that expense gets them 200m or 400m is really arbitrary. They are likely to spend it either way... and a risk-free option has stronger overall value (CCP just needs to make sure the risk is there).
Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.08.19 21:58:00 -
[19]
August is a slow month. People are stocking up on all kinds of things. Its a good time to buy generally. Also, this coincides with the loss of isk selling so isk purchases are most likely transferring to legitimate sources.
This is awesome, I like these low prices, it fixes a lot of the problems keeping alts training skills. You can run 3 alts now for under a billion isk per month. Thats great, I hope it stays like this for a long time.
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Dynast
Eve Defence Force Systematic-Chaos
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Posted - 2009.08.19 23:23:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Helena C Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.
Plenty of people; back when 30 day GTCs were under 100mil people sold them.. hell, they sold them for 60-70mil. Bear in mind that the relative value of ISK and dollars/euros will vary greatly from person to person.. and that fifteen or thirty bucks for a shiny adult toy is a perfectly reasonable expenditure.. especially compared to bar tabs. As long as there's an officially supported way to get ingame stuff for money, it'll be used.
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.20 00:38:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Nyota Sol on 20/08/2009 00:40:54
Originally by: Helena C
Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.
Let me be clear on this point.
ALL THE SAME PEOPLE who would blow $15 to buy video game e-money would still spend it regardless of it being 250m or 300m. They can rationalize the in-game value from now to the end of eternity, but in the end these are people willing to spend real cash on in-game toys. It's shiny. It wouldn't honestly matter if it was a BS or a BC... they're going to spend it.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.08.20 05:14:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Nyota Sol Volume increasing. Prices flat. Supply increasing exponentially. Demand flat.
Not quite. The demand is not extremely elastic, and has a long delay between cause and effect, but the link is there. Once PLEX prices go down enough, you will see a significant increase in demand, which will remain there to some degree even after prices restart going up. Cycles, cycles, everything works in cycles... bubble, bust, repeat...
_
Info about our corp | Beginer's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper |
KaarBaak
Minmatar Squirrel Team
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Posted - 2009.08.20 15:33:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Nyota Sol Edited by: Nyota Sol on 20/08/2009 00:40:54
Originally by: Helena C
Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.
Let me be clear on this point.
ALL THE SAME PEOPLE who would blow $15 to buy video game e-money would still spend it regardless of it being 250m or 300m. They can rationalize the in-game value from now to the end of eternity, but in the end these are people willing to spend real cash on in-game toys. It's shiny. It wouldn't honestly matter if it was a BS or a BC... they're going to spend it.
(IMO): SOME of the same people. Not all. A diminished value for RM->GTC->ISK conversion will discourage some (not all) GTC purchasing. A decreased (isk) value for GTCs will only tighten the market.
Some people will still purchase and sell them, but I don't think there is a rational explanation that the numbers will increase or remain the same if the price drops below 600M isk/GTC [300/PLEX].
KB
Beware the beast Man, for he is the Devil's pawn. Alone among God's primates, he kills for sport or lust or greed. Yea, he will murder his brother to possess his brother's land. |
Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.20 17:25:00 -
[24]
Buy orders have come to dominate the plex market in the last 48-72 hours, with several regions having sub-300m plex prices (sell orders) for many hours at a time. Buy orders are in the 290-295m range. Averages will likely fall below 300m in the next 2 days, and then we'll see what happens.
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Nyota Sol Volume increasing. Prices flat. Supply increasing exponentially. Demand flat.
Not quite. The demand is not extremely elastic, and has a long delay between cause and effect, but the link is there. Once PLEX prices go down enough, you will see a significant increase in demand, which will remain there to some degree even after prices restart going up. Cycles, cycles, everything works in cycles... bubble, bust, repeat...
I was simply talking about the current conditions as quantified in those charts by CCP.
As for plex trends, I'd hesitate to make long-term generalizations about them or to use GTC as the basis of analysis. I do believe interest in using them for subscriptions may have a ceiling at current prices. I do believe that people would continue to create them at 200-250m regardless of all the rhetoric about the past.
I do not believe everything works in cycles toward equilibrium, however. I dont even think a simple supply/demand curve accurately applies to something like PLEX. It's complicated, like real currency dynamics. It involves overlapping types of demand and interests.
I do think we will see a growth in plex usage (the primary demand) with lower prices and i think that interest in creating them will remain strong (the secondary demand). I consider plex usage the primary demand, because there is only one means to do so and because it sets the real value of plex. |
Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.21 11:24:00 -
[25]
Edited by: Nyota Sol on 21/08/2009 11:25:01
Trading has been increasingly driven by Buy Orders, with Sell Orders being very stubborn. However, Buys in Sinq have been increasingly poking below 300 and now the same is happening in Jita.
Jita's daily averages have sunk below 300m.
Because 300 is such a strong psychological round number, my fascination with this increases and I wonder how long until we see a fairly sharp drop from the 290s.
That's Jita just before DT on the 21st.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.08.21 11:57:00 -
[26]
So, in the end, this was not a sort of "random report" but just your part in a market manipulation to instill FUD and have prices drop, right? - Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company ISK Six
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Posted - 2009.08.21 12:00:00 -
[27]
Isn't that what all of these threads boil down to?
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.21 12:07:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha So, in the end, this was not a sort of "random report" but just your part in a market manipulation to instill FUD and have prices drop, right?
Yes, i'm "manipulating the market" by pointing out the obvious to anybody looking carefully at the facts in the devblog. Wow, you people need to get off your computers more often.
Sorry, but if i were "manipulating the market" i wouldn't be talking about this and would be simply buying out the Buy Orders and relisting them way lower in several regions. Oh wait, i don't have that kind of ISK.
Oh wait... and i said that the start THAT I'M INVESTED IN PLEX... so that would LOSE me even more money.
Please keep your tinfoil hats tilted at the sun...
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.08.21 13:25:00 -
[29]
1) By making threads starting with a tangential topic slowly narrowing to more and more precise economic statements is a classic of forum market manipulation. Sorry if you get called duck, if you quack and look like one.
2) I am not good like Shar but I can be as nasty and "direct". Don't tell anyone though . - Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.08.21 17:32:00 -
[30]
Nyota is not the market manipulation type.
I have always said that PLEX have been overvalued since the middle of June. Sure, on one hand I am trying to keep the price down since I buy PLEX for consumption. On the other hand, I merely speak the truth. Anyone could see the same if they wanted to take their blinders off. On the gripping hand, I would usually leave out points that would argue against my position, why give the people who can't think for themselves any help.
In any case as Nyota said, what is going on is clear to see for anyone watching the market. The drop has been happening for a month and only the psychological 300 million number is what is keeping prices up atm. Outside of Jita prices have already fallen and will stay down for the long term.
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Fleshbot
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Posted - 2009.08.21 20:50:00 -
[31]
Originally by: Nyota Sol Edited by: Nyota Sol on 20/08/2009 00:40:54
Originally by: Helena C
Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.
Let me be clear on this point.
ALL THE SAME PEOPLE who would blow $15 to buy video game e-money would still spend it regardless of it being 250m or 300m. They can rationalize the in-game value from now to the end of eternity, but in the end these are people willing to spend real cash on in-game toys. It's shiny. It wouldn't honestly matter if it was a BS or a BC... they're going to spend it.
I think you both make good points but I'm not really certain as we basically have an echo chamber of people in here who buy plexs for consumption, or at the least, no one here who produces plex for sale.
A friend has in the past bought GTCs to convert to plexs for isk. He has clearly stated it's not worth doing at less than 650M for the GTC (or 325M per plex). Which gives us one data point.
I'm much more interested in hearing what the GTC/Plex producers have to say. At what price point will they stop producing. What are their thoughts on the current plex market.
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Qi Teuf
Epiphyte Mining and Exploration Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2009.08.21 23:46:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Nyota Sol Edited by: Nyota Sol on 20/08/2009 00:40:54
Originally by: Helena C
Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.
Let me be clear on this point.
ALL THE SAME PEOPLE who would blow $15 to buy video game e-money would still spend it regardless of it being 250m or 300m. They can rationalize the in-game value from now to the end of eternity, but in the end these are people willing to spend real cash on in-game toys. It's shiny. It wouldn't honestly matter if it was a BS or a BC... they're going to spend it.
I am one of those people that has money to spend on plexes, I happened to buy some at the right time when I came back to game and sold them for 400mil/PLEX. I would not however even think of buying PLEX at 200mil or lower.
The answer comes in my RL job and how much money I make an hour, compared to how much Isk I make in game and what it can buy. For me an easy 1.6Billion was nice to provide ships for PvP, but spending $ on only .6 Billion would not be worth the effort. There is a line at where it is more advantageous for me to Rat in 0.0 to earn Isk, than it is to sell PLEX at such a low price.
Now this may barely scratch the issue of the overall market, but your statement does not hold water for players like myself who purchase for other than market transactions.
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company ISK Six
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Posted - 2009.08.21 23:49:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Fleshbot
A friend has in the past bought GTCs to convert to plexs for isk. He has clearly stated it's not worth doing at less than 650M for the GTC (or 325M per plex). Which gives us one data point.
While anecdotal evidence is fine and dandy, numerical evidence is better. For those who have been around a few years, there have been periods where a 30 D GTC was worth 100, 180, and now 300. Obviously this has gone up as more ISK is available to the average player, but just because we've seen GTCs sell at 300 doesn't mean no one would sell them again at 200. You do what the market allows you to do. If the overwhelming pressure crashes the market to 200 and demand < supply still holds, then it will stay there, and players will make that judgment call when they come to it. In short, we already know that a lower price is a sustainable level, purely due to historical data.
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Chaos Dreams
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Posted - 2009.08.22 03:11:00 -
[34]
If CCP is really worried about the excess plexes on the market, why don't they open up new uses for them? Kind of like how they allowed fanfest tickets to be bought with plex. Maybe allow the use of plex for character transfers and portrait swaps. Probably more people would be willing to do those if they could cover the fee with in-game money.
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Steve Thomas
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Posted - 2009.08.22 04:16:00 -
[35]
meh worse comes to worse they use a GM alt to buy up any surpluss and whos to know the diference.
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.*
Stop freaking worrying about why things the developers did 5 years and more ago no longer make sense. |
Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2009.08.22 09:09:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Steve Thomas meh worse comes to worse they use a GM alt to buy up any surpluss and whos to know the diference.
That is highly unlikely scenario as possible fallout if this would go public would be far worse than little gain it can provide. CCP cares for EVE far too mutch to do something like that to it.
At the end of day it's ofc matter of trust. I for one are quite willing to trust CCP not to do something like that. There has been some issues and scandals over the years but they have always been quite open about those issues and put in considerable effort to smooth out the trust issues rising from those.
If the issue of surpulus PLEX would start to actually hurt then I'm sure they can come up with some other way to get that surpulus out from game. Most likley you could start using PLEX in EVE Store for those cofee cups and T-shirts if CCP think there is too many of those in game.
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Taikun
Gallente 20th Legion Sodalitas XX
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Posted - 2009.08.22 09:23:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Carniflex I for one are quite willing to trust CCP
Then you sir, are quite stup... er foolish.
Taikun
A criminal is a person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation. |
Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.22 10:22:00 -
[38]
Originally by: Selene D'Celeste
While anecdotal evidence is fine and dandy, numerical evidence is better. For those who have been around a few years, there have been periods where a 30 D GTC was worth 100, 180, and now 300. Obviously this has gone up as more ISK is available to the average player, but just because we've seen GTCs sell at 300 doesn't mean no one would sell them again at 200. You do what the market allows you to do. If the overwhelming pressure crashes the market to 200 and demand < supply still holds, then it will stay there, and players will make that judgment call when they come to it. In short, we already know that a lower price is a sustainable level, purely due to historical data.
Good points. I am hesitant to use the past as a direct analogy for PLEX, because my understanding it that the PLEX represent a unique mix of both isk/cash and ingame sub markets. Likewise, with overall market changes and inflation, it's risky to rely on prices from years ago.
I believe that the level of PLEX usage will start to increase intensely as prices drop farther into the 200s. In spite of the immature personal attacks and claims that I'm engaging in "market manipulation" by having this discussion, I'm actually hoping prices lower gradually over a month and bottom out at 250m. With the incoming mineral price volatility, salvage/rig volatility and this plexapocalyps all going at the same time, i worry about the game market effectively crashing. Just a bit.
Originally by: Qi Teuf
I am one of those people that has money to spend on plexes, I happened to buy some at the right time when I came back to game and sold them for 400mil/PLEX. I would not however even think of buying PLEX at 200mil or lower.
The answer comes in my RL job and how much money I make an hour, compared to how much Isk I make in game and what it can buy. For me an easy 1.6Billion was nice to provide ships for PvP, but spending $ on only .6 Billion would not be worth the effort. There is a line at where it is more advantageous for me to Rat in 0.0 to earn Isk, than it is to sell PLEX at such a low price.
Now this may barely scratch the issue of the overall market, but your statement does not hold water for players like myself who purchase for other than market transactions.
I'd agree that there can be extremes where people would stop trading $ for ISK on the one hand, or on the other hand where people would start trading $ for ISK in much much higher volumes.
The bottom line is that you have RL time constraints and plex allow you to cash in RL work for game money. I'm saying most people with RL jobs and time constraints don't invest real $ for ISK. Similarly, I believe that what people say and what people do are not always the same.
If you could get 600m for plex and got used to that, I suspect you'd be saying you would NEVER buy plex at 300m. The perceived value is not entirely objective. We're talking about buying virtual toys.
I see the decision to spend $ for ISK on par with somebody having cash in their pocket and wanting to buy a new toy. They are going to buy a toy based on what they can afford. They may convince themselves that the decision making is some type of rational cost & value assessment, but what's driving the purchase is them having $ and wanting a toy. Whether they can afford a fancy new gaming computer or only a skateboard doesn't matter. They are spending what's burning in their pocket.
This is why i suspect people who buy ISK with cash would do so regardless of whether they get 600m ISK or 200m ISK. The temptation is obviously greater with more ISK and perceived value, but in the end we're talking about putting money into a game... regardless of what is "won" inside the game.
I might add that if prices dropped to 200m, this means more people could afford to make Eve pay for itself... and thus may feel like they "deserve" to spend real money on buying ISK.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Kinetic Wolf
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Posted - 2009.08.22 17:16:00 -
[39]
Edited by: Kinetic Wolf on 22/08/2009 17:23:08 lulz at speculators
btw today theres heavy undercutting on Jita 4-4. Im 99% sure someone is manipulating down, maybe to get a hundred of cheap PLEXes and then resell when prices go back to "regular" prices (320m).
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Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2009.08.22 17:57:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Kinetic Wolf Edited by: Kinetic Wolf on 22/08/2009 17:23:08 lulz at speculators
btw today theres heavy undercutting on Jita 4-4. Im 99% sure someone is manipulating down, maybe to get a hundred of cheap PLEXes and then resell when prices go back to "regular" prices (320m).
While manipulation is quite possible data relased so far is suggesting that 320 mil will not be "regular" price in future as more PLEX is created than used up every day. If the new "regular" price will be 220 or 280 is impossible to really tell beforehand as that one depends on real people and thats damn hard to predict accurately. I myself would speculate on 250 mil area. ie 250 +/- 25 mil or so to be sustainable level considering the current supply and demand ratio.
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Vhiskey
Caldari Imperial Forces
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Posted - 2009.08.22 18:18:00 -
[41]
we¦ll know it around xmas
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Brainless Bimbo
Minmatar
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Posted - 2009.08.22 18:49:00 -
[42]
You notice that the plex price and trit price loosely track each other. Over the past months 100 million trit buys a Plex, if plex is 400M trit is 4 isk, trit now is 3 isk and plex¦s are 300M ....
just a weird observation ...... continues overleaf. |
Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.08.22 18:52:00 -
[43]
Originally by: Carniflex I myself would speculate on 250 mil area. ie 250 +/- 25 mil or so to be sustainable level considering the current supply and demand ratio.
It was quite a while ago that I ran the numbers but, after factoring increased costs and inflation and such a PLEX at 260 would be equivalent to a 30 day GTC at about 180-190 million. So 250 million ISK PLEX is possible, lower is unlikely. Then again prices outside fo Jita are always lower so PLEX at just above 200 million might be seen in a few regions.
One thing to note is that PLEX volume in Jita yesterday was higher then any time in the past month. It was also the first day where not a single PLEX was sold for more then 300 million. We are looking at a slow drift downwards over the next few weeks. PLEX should shed 1-3 million per day. I don't see Jita PLEX going for less then 260 though, I think at that point speculators would jump in again, saving for the long term. Also you would have people start activating dormant data core accounts and cashing in while the conversion was cheap. Stacked on that would be the reduced supply from the few people that would stop funding their Eve time with GTC's.
Even with all of that the stockpile of Surplus PLEX is huge and will take a long time to liquidate. Additionally most of those PLEX were purchased buy foolish speculators when PLEX were overvalued, at the 340 million and above range. They will not sell when the prices are below 300 million, it's too much of a loss. That is unless they are in desperate need of some cash.
All of these factors come togeather and tell me that PLEX will hover in the 250-270 range. PLEX is down and will be down for months.
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Fraps
Setenta Corp Libertas Fidelitas
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Posted - 2009.08.22 19:06:00 -
[44]
does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.
for instance if if a 60 day GTC is 35 dollars and you convert that to plexs which nets you 600m give or take. would it not be applicable to see what 35 dollars spent on one of the many eBay/virtual money clearing houses would get you?
obviously the risk is far greater to the purchaser as they are now acting outside the EULA. but there are always those who would rather take a greater risk and get more isk then play inside the rules for less profit.
that also seems an area that CCP can compete in. by banning the RM traders, and macro miners they increase the cost of doing business for these clearing houses. this would in turn raise their prices allowing CCP's own mechanisms for converting RM to isk to be a more appealing option.
lastly as a shameless plug for selene, its far more profitable to play poker than it is to sell plex's
Originally by: Rohann /emote pokes woody and moons him
I R NEKID SEE!?!?!?!?! |
Iridescent Moon
Caldari Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.08.22 19:27:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Fraps does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.
I think talking about RMT like that would get the post deleted.
That being said since I am towing the company line, RMT is not worth the risk. You can get more for your money but, you can also get the money stripped form the account and banned as well. If the ISK is stripped you blew your on RL cash and got nothing for it, if you spent the ISK you have a negative wallet and have to buy GTC anyway to get yourself out of the hole. If you did not care about being baned or the negative wallet.... you probably did not care enough to do RMT for ISK anyway. GTC is such a better way to go, for everyone... eccpet the RMT guys. They can go **** themselves anyway.
(soirry for the **** language )
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Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2009.08.22 19:42:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Iridescent Moon
Originally by: Fraps does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.
I think talking about RMT like that would get the post deleted.
That being said since I am towing the company line, RMT is not worth the risk. You can get more for your money but, you can also get the money stripped form the account and banned as well. If the ISK is stripped you blew your on RL cash and got nothing for it, if you spent the ISK you have a negative wallet and have to buy GTC anyway to get yourself out of the hole. If you did not care about being baned or the negative wallet.... you probably did not care enough to do RMT for ISK anyway. GTC is such a better way to go, for everyone... eccpet the RMT guys. They can go **** themselves anyway.
(soirry for the **** language )
Actually of late some RMT sites are more expencive than using just legal PLEX. At least as far as the spam they post in Jita local goes. Considering the amount of keylogger spam in the forums tho I think guy who uses RMT sites will have a far bigger problems than getting into negative wallet. Kinda like emtpy credit card kinda problems.
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari The D'Celeste Trading Company ISK Six
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Posted - 2009.08.22 20:02:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Fraps lastly as a shameless plug for selene, its far more profitable to play poker than it is to sell plex's
Thanks! This is only true if they win though. =P
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Fraps
Setenta Corp Libertas Fidelitas
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Posted - 2009.08.22 20:25:00 -
[48]
I updated my post with what I think is a more relevant thought on the RMT aspect.
It really does come down to risk vs reward but if no one was buying( which would be better for everyone) then they would not exist. so there has to be some effect. to me at least it would seem to be one of the more parallel markets. the product idea is essential the same. take disposable RL income and convert it into virtual currency. its just that one is within the rules and the other form is not.
not to turn this into a RMT thread that would probably get locked but, just googling around I found an article that suggests( I say suggests because I don't how factual they are) that the virtual market for all games is expected to reach 1.8 billion dollars this year. they also have a statistic suggesting 1/10 people purchase virtual item with real money. while that data is for the entire market it does suggest that the effect of RMT on things like the PLEX market may be higher than one would think.
Originally by: Rohann /emote pokes woody and moons him
I R NEKID SEE!?!?!?!?! |
Arec Bardwin
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Posted - 2009.08.22 21:13:00 -
[49]
Having buy orders filled at 250 mill this weekend. Good times for alt armies.
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Merovee
Amarr Gorthaur Legion
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Posted - 2009.08.23 00:40:00 -
[50]
well I'm not going to make plexes for less than 300isk and I can see others doing the same. This means that the supply will start to dry up as demand increases with the lower prices. When price hits under 200 it may be the right time to start buying for your own use. 6 x 15 = 90 or 110can$ @ 200isk = 1.2B isk not very good value IMHO since in june I made 6 x 375isk = 2.25B isk. anyway its better to wait and buy isk when the warm weather is gone. Of Mordor
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.23 01:12:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Kinetic Wolf Edited by: Kinetic Wolf on 22/08/2009 17:23:08 lulz at speculators
btw today theres heavy undercutting on Jita 4-4. Im 99% sure someone is manipulating down, maybe to get a hundred of cheap PLEXes and then resell when prices go back to "regular" prices (320m).
Manipulating down?
Supplies doubled after speculators drove prices absurdly high. Buyers have been in complete control of the prices for several days now. It's not stopping, and now that more people are waking up and realizing the 300m days are gone... they will try to cut their losses...
I think the problem is that many people perceive PLEX to be primarily about isk-cash trade rather than about subscribing to eve. The core valuation seems to me to be about what people are interested in paying for a month of Eve... not what people think is a good $-to-isk value.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Steve Thomas
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Posted - 2009.08.23 04:37:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Carniflex
Originally by: Steve Thomas meh worse comes to worse they use a GM alt to buy up any surpluss and whos to know the diference.
That is highly unlikely scenario as possible fallout if this would go public would be far worse than little gain it can provide. CCP cares for EVE far too mutch to do something like that to it. .
you realy think so eh? some of the developers dont even care enough about keeping there bloody jobs . . . oh right he was not fired because it would hurt his fealings. . . . but yet they will to to great lenghts suposedly to perminently banhammer anyone Else caught cheeting. . . right. . .
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.*
Stop freaking worrying about why things the developers did 5 years and more ago no longer make sense. |
Steve Thomas
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Posted - 2009.08.23 05:15:00 -
[53]
the REAL demand is inelastic because not everyone bothers with mutiple accounts to the point that they need to fuel them with plex, and even then that tends to be offset by the people who would otherwise spend 100 or more a month on plex who buy them for themselves.
however the real supplie is elastic in that eventualy its not realy worth the bother to get more plex just to try to fuel whatever it is the person is trying to use plex topay for.
*.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.* *.*
Stop freaking worrying about why things the developers did 5 years and more ago no longer make sense. |
Malcanis
Vanishing Point. The Initiative.
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Posted - 2009.08.23 07:21:00 -
[54]
Originally by: Fraps Edited by: Fraps on 22/08/2009 19:32:12 does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.
for instance if if a 60 day GTC is 35 dollars and you convert that to plexs which nets you 600m give or take. would it not be applicable to see what 35 dollars spent on one of the many eBay/virtual money clearing houses would get you?
obviously the risk is far greater to the purchaser as they are now acting outside the EULA. but there are always those who would rather take a greater risk and get more isk then play inside the rules for less profit.
that also seems an area that CCP can compete in. by banning the RM traders, and macro miners they increase the cost of doing business for these clearing houses. this would in turn raise their prices allowing CCP's own mechanisms for converting RM to isk to be a more appealing option.
if you take that and run with it then the when CCP announces large scale banning operations that should push more people towards purchasing plex's rather than from a third party source. increasing the already bloated supply and keeping the price down. given time, Im sure the RM traders and macro'ers will return in force, driving down there own cost's and attracting more business. that could decrease the supply and move the price of Plex's back up.
lastly as a shameless plug for selene, its far more profitable to play poker than it is to sell plex's
Remembering also that ISK farmers were a large source of demand for PLEXes as well... If CCP can effectively maintain the pressure on ISK farmers, then we may see a reversal of the long term price rise of playtime in EvE. I wonder what other long term effects might be seen (eg: reduction in supercapital demand).
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.23 13:53:00 -
[55]
Originally by: Steve Thomas the REAL demand is inelastic because not everyone bothers with mutiple accounts to the point that they need to fuel them with plex, and even then that tends to be offset by the people who would otherwise spend 100 or more a month on plex who buy them for themselves.
however the real supplie is elastic in that eventualy its not realy worth the bother to get more plex just to try to fuel whatever it is the person is trying to use plex topay for.
That doesnt seem very elastic to me. Either people have accounts they intend to keep going with PLEX or they do not. From what i've heard, the only cases where folks turn on/off accounts is when juggling research.
So, while i can imagine some instability in terms of people setting up alt accounts and then later deciding not to stick with it... I would assume plex USAGE is a fairly steady thing long-term.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.23 14:16:00 -
[56]
Originally by: Malcanis
Remembering also that ISK farmers were a large source of demand for PLEXes as well...
Really?
If that is true, it may explain the dip we see in plex usage. However, plex usage stabilized at pre-Rage levels. Perhaps that would have been a net growth in plex usage if they had been there still. Perhaps plx usage is growing and it isn't clear on the chart because of the Rage op.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Carniflex
Caldari Fallout Research Fallout Project
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Posted - 2009.08.23 14:25:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Nyota Sol
Originally by: Steve Thomas the REAL demand is inelastic because not everyone bothers with mutiple accounts to the point that they need to fuel them with plex, and even then that tends to be offset by the people who would otherwise spend 100 or more a month on plex who buy them for themselves.
however the real supplie is elastic in that eventualy its not realy worth the bother to get more plex just to try to fuel whatever it is the person is trying to use plex topay for.
That doesnt seem very elastic to me. Either people have accounts they intend to keep going with PLEX or they do not. From what i've heard, the only cases where folks turn on/off accounts is when juggling research.
So, while i can imagine some instability in terms of people setting up alt accounts and then later deciding not to stick with it... I would assume plex USAGE is a fairly steady thing long-term.
I can't speak for average EVE player but I have alltogehter 5 accounts. When PLEX price increased I switched to paying for 2 of them with credit card (was paying only for my main with credit card before that). When PLEX kept going up I decided to mothball 5th and 4th of them. That took 3-4 months, to wrap stuff up on them and mothball (train characters to where I'm happy with them, transfer to emptied slots on remaining accounts). When PLEX hit 400 I sent my capital/combat alt inactive as I was busy in RL and thus it was too straining to run him on PLEX anymore.
Now that PLEX dropped to 300 my thrid account went back active. When it will hit 225-250 area my 4th account (that has still some useful chars on it) it might pick up again. To pick up my 5th account again PLEX would need to go into 200 mil area.
So people with multiple accounts can switch them on and off. It's just with some inertia, as it can take some time to "wrap up" if you are used to having 20 char slots available to go down to 12 slots. For example thinking thru where you need cyno alts and if you really need them in every locatin or reorganizing production chains by dropping less profitable items etc.
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.25 09:55:00 -
[58]
Looks like we've yet to see a massive panic with all the sub-300m prices. Sinq has flattened at 280m for now.
This is good.
Hopefully there's more resistance to dumping than I feared. On the flip side, perhaps more people are looking to use PLEX in the coming month(s).
Perhaps when we see the next charts, we'll see that red line increasing into September with both increased interest (post-Rage) and people turning in many of those PLEX (yellow line) rather than trying to sell them for isk.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Josh Silver
Amarr GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.08.25 12:31:00 -
[59]
Originally by: Carniflex
Now that PLEX dropped to 300 my thrid account went back active. When it will hit 225-250 area my 4th account (that has still some useful chars on it) it might pick up again. To pick up my 5th account again PLEX would need to go into 200 mil area.
Those are quite realistic numbers. I can't see any "casual player" demand kicking in until PLEX get very close to 200m. That's still a LOT of hours mining Veld or running missions to save 15$
And the stockpiles of PLEX laying around in hangars are rumored to be huge.
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Gypsio III
Dirty Filthy Perverts
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Posted - 2009.08.25 12:51:00 -
[60]
Originally by: Nyota Sol
Originally by: Malcanis
Remembering also that ISK farmers were a large source of demand for PLEXes as well...
Really?
It's no coincidence that after 22nd June all the nonsense farmer names disappeared from the GTC forum... or that the spike in PLEX-in-stock starts from mid-late June.
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.25 22:10:00 -
[61]
Originally by: Gypsio III
Originally by: Nyota Sol
Originally by: Malcanis
Remembering also that ISK farmers were a large source of demand for PLEXes as well...
Really?
It's no coincidence that after 22nd June all the nonsense farmer names disappeared from the GTC forum... or that the spike in PLEX-in-stock starts from mid-late June.
It may explain why plex usage went flat to some extend, but plex creation was clearly driven by speculation and a frenzy over plex as a raw trading commodity.
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Mr Dispatch
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Posted - 2009.08.25 23:28:00 -
[62]
I just ran an informal Poll In my Corp.
The General consensus was that If plexes went so low that one day of afk income (market sales, highsec trading, market manipulation) was enough to pay it you would have to be a fool to not buy plexes while other people were quite willing to put in as much as a week to even half a month of afk income.
The difference between how much a player is willing to invest was strongly correlated with wether or not the player intends to make large purchases or investments soon. players planning to buy lots of ships and things were not surprisingly unwilling to spend on plexes while players who's money level was "sufficient" didnt mind.
Im not exactly surprised by this honestly. Though the interesting correlation is that we should expect plex prices to go up at times of relative peace.
Also one of our corpmates runs an alt fleet of ice miners, 7 or 8 accounts, the amount of money he spends on plexes is fixe and lately hes added an extra account because of how cheap it is, since many of these accounts are ice miners and nothing else he dosent really lose much turning them off.
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Bloody Rabbit
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Posted - 2009.08.26 02:53:00 -
[63]
Reading the news, one question that popped up in my head.
Say that the RMT buy the plex to hold isk to transfer to buyers, then the account holding the plex are frozen and deleted, what happens to the plex that are still in the system as shown on the charts but not really able to be reclaimed; think gift cards for retailers, they have to be accounted for but there is a high profit as 20-30% are never collected on.
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LoreSpade Indigo
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Posted - 2009.08.26 07:01:00 -
[64]
It would be funny if plex investing coused the Trit prices drop. Any one used to trade trit regularly, now find yourselves fighting to sell your plex's to break even? Funny all the theory's on why Trit prices have dropped, Some say it has something to do with the banhammer on the Isk sellers. Perhaps these two issues Plex and trit prices are connected.
People mine and are not getting the full amount when selling means they wont get up to 300+ mil isk. I think if we were to get trit prices back up to the 4.00 isk per unit, There could be an increase in Plex prices. Mostly for the reason there will be more money going to the backbone miner's.
See if there is a market connection to the fall of trit and plex.
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Saartje Sarel
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Posted - 2009.08.26 10:12:00 -
[65]
forgive my raging ignorance but how is a lower plex price good for ccp's proit margins? if more people can afford not to pay ccp any money to play eve, is that not a bad thing?
right now it seems like eve cannot be making ccp a lot of money above their operating costs?
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Vhiskey
Caldari Imperial Forces
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Posted - 2009.08.26 11:00:00 -
[66]
Originally by: Saartje Sarel forgive my raging ignorance but how is a lower plex price good for ccp's proit margins? if more people can afford not to pay ccp any money to play eve, is that not a bad thing?
right now it seems like eve cannot be making ccp a lot of money above their operating costs?
every plex has been bought with RL money
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Saartje Sarel
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Posted - 2009.08.26 11:13:00 -
[67]
Originally by: Vhiskey
Originally by: Saartje Sarel forgive my raging ignorance but how is a lower plex price good for ccp's proit margins? if more people can afford not to pay ccp any money to play eve, is that not a bad thing?
right now it seems like eve cannot be making ccp a lot of money above their operating costs?
every plex has been bought with RL money
oh right. told you I was ignorant. :)
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Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
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Posted - 2009.08.29 21:07:00 -
[68]
Has it bottomed out?
280-285 averages all around.
Looks like we've avoided the sub-300m panic for now, which is great.
I still think prices will drop again, unless there's a sudden jump in actual plex usage (or intention to use). But at least we havent seen a sharp dive to 225m and hundreds of billions of new cash in the markets (my real worry)!!!
CAS 101 Eve Musings |
Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.09.04 16:00:00 -
[69]
Originally by: Helena C Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.
People had no problem paying $35 bucks for 300mil. The reason the price of plex rose is because isk became much easier to acquire in-game, thus reducing its real world worth. When you're pulling in hundreds of billions of isk worth of moon materials, isk is pretty much free, so any price is a price worth paying for it. Eventually of course, people paying for second, third or fourth accounts find that at above 300mil, it isn't worth maintaining that extra account, because the extra they make by using it doesn't pay for itself.
For each swap of a PLEX someone has to think that the real money is easier to make than the isk, and someone has to think that the isk is easier to make than the real money. Since it's not that hard for people even on modest incomes to earn $15/hr then you have to ask, how easy is it to make 250mil / hr ingame, every hour. Many people would rather work a little longer so they can come home and PvP without worrying about their wallet.
The same there are plenty of people in this world who can spend several hours in game to avoid having to pay $15 they can't afford, or what's causing most of the plex buying, people who enjoy the activity that makes the isk to buy the PLEX / people who can use it to make more isk.
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stoicfaux
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Posted - 2009.09.04 17:15:00 -
[70]
Originally by: Malcanis
I think what he's hinting at is that CCP can easily manipulate the price of PLEX buy creating buy orders at an arbitrary level. ISK doesn't cost them anything, after all.
PLEX are effectively a fiat currency.
What about inflation? On one hand pumping 'free' isk into the economy devalues isk, which would normally prompt people to invest in real items that preserve their value over time. On the other hand, time is a pretty stable and tangible asset (barring macroers) so buying time with your isk might help offset rampant inflation?
Disclaimer: Not an economist, just idle speculation on my part.
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Presidente Gallente
Dark-Rising IT Alliance
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Posted - 2009.10.05 16:14:00 -
[71]
Originally by: Dynast Plenty of people; back when 30 day GTCs were under 100mil people sold them.. hell, they sold them for 60-70mil. Bear in mind that the relative value of ISK and dollars/euros will vary greatly from person to person.. and that fifteen or thirty bucks for a shiny adult toy is a perfectly reasonable expenditure.. especially compared to bar tabs. As long as there's an officially supported way to get ingame stuff for money, it'll be used.
When was that? I am playing EVE for 3 years now and started with 30d GTC 2 years ago and I sold them always from 190-250m, never lower. For the latest 60d I got 700m few weeks ago.
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