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Ravenja
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Posted - 2008.12.11 16:18:00 -
[121]
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: Ravenja I can see reasons why trit prices are up, but why are the highend minerals dropping?
because ALL mineral prices are tied together, in something that is often refered to as the "mineral basket".
Thanks, but you are describing an effect, not a cause.
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria if you know what percentages of minerals go into the various items in eve (they all roughly follow the square rule of the base min price set way back in the way back machine)
By that argument demand and prices should stay propotional. But in fact some of the minerals show cyclic price history while others are rather acyclic or anti-proportional (i.e. the mentioned seesaw).
I could imagine a pork cycle on the production side, issues affecting mining or by a shifting in demand because of increased manufacturing of items that deviate from the mineral proportion rule.
Thought you guys would know
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.12.11 16:27:00 -
[122]
Originally by: Ravenja
By that argument demand and prices should stay propotional. But in fact some of the minerals show cyclic price history while others are rather acyclic or anti-proportional (i.e. the mentioned seesaw).
I could imagine a pork cycle on the production side, issues affecting mining or by a shifting in demand because of increased manufacturing of items that deviate from the mineral proportion rule.
Thought you guys would know
Well the see saw effect works exactly as described when all other factors are mitigated out. Mining, loot drops, drone alloys, etc.. All have pressure they put on each individual mins and as such the see saw effect is sometimes hard to see between the low ends and the high ends. Its only been exacerbated in the last 2 months because BOTH mex and pye are down and there was a vastly huge demand for trit.
Had mex been at its previous prices last large patch day, we'd have seen a vastly different reaction from the high end market. |
Treelox
Amarr Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2008.12.11 16:52:00 -
[123]
Originally by: Ravenja
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: Ravenja I can see reasons why trit prices are up, but why are the highend minerals dropping?
because ALL mineral prices are tied together, in something that is often refered to as the "mineral basket".
Thanks, but you are describing an effect, not a cause.
well the "cause" is different depending on who you talk to, but they all tie into one thing, increased demand. You said in post that you saw why Trit was on the rise, well the same reason that you see as to why trit is on the rise, is very likely the same reason why zyd and mega are on the downswing.
I didnt elaborate to a cause, since you claimed to know the reason for increase in trit, I just provided you with the insight that high ends and low ends are eternally locked, in a balancing act.
--
as to to your comment about cyclic history, a lot of this has to do with miners/reprocessors/traders moving back and forth in what they supply to catch the spike in the demand curve, at its peak.
There are other secondary influences aswell, but they ultimately just influence the above one. Such as high cap ship losses, allaince upheval, new ship types being introduced by ccp and normal pre-major-content patches that always get speculators panties wet.
I hope that helps you see the bigger picture as it were, cause gawd damm that is about as helpful as I have been in months here in MD. So much for my rep as a forum bully. -- Chribba's LoveQuest 17:00hrs Dec. 20th (Prizes!!)
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Cor Aidan
Imperium Forces Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2008.12.11 17:25:00 -
[124]
Originally by: Treelox
well the "cause" is different depending on who you talk to, but they all tie into one thing, increased demand. You said in post that you saw why Trit was on the rise, well the same reason that you see as to why trit is on the rise, is very likely the same reason why zyd and mega are on the downswing.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'increased demand' here. I suspect you were just missing some modifier: 'increased demand for tritanium relative to other minerals.'
A wholesale demand increase would likely result in an increase of all prices.
The only way I know to determine this is to check volumes in conjunction with prices - and I've not seen much mention of volume in this particular thread.
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Treelox
Amarr Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2008.12.11 17:27:00 -
[125]
Originally by: Cor Aidan
Originally by: Treelox
well the "cause" is different depending on who you talk to, but they all tie into one thing, increased demand. You said in post that you saw why Trit was on the rise, well the same reason that you see as to why trit is on the rise, is very likely the same reason why zyd and mega are on the downswing.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'increased demand' here. I suspect you were just missing some modifier: 'increased demand for tritanium relative to other minerals.'
A wholesale demand increase would likely result in an increase of all prices.
That would assume that the mineral mix of what stimulates the demand is proportional to what is mined/reprocessed. The ratio's of required minerals are not always the same. -- Chribba's LoveQuest 17:00hrs Dec. 20th (Prizes!!)
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Cor Aidan
Imperium Forces Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2008.12.11 18:13:00 -
[126]
Originally by: Treelox
That would assume that the mineral mix of what stimulates the demand is proportional to what is mined/reprocessed. The ratio's of required minerals are not always the same.
Not necessarily. The current hypothesis is that the demand for Tritanium has increased. The way to get tritanium that is commonly held to make the most sense is mining Veldspar. Mining veldspar yields zero high-end minerals. Mining high-end ores to obtain tritanium is really kind of foolish - though that would indeed result in oversupply of high-ends for items which use more tritanium than high-ends relative to mineral availability.
What this indicates to me is that a significant portion of tritanium is obtained by melting loot and drone alloys (for instance, I know that from at least battlecruiser on up, the ratios of trit to high-ends required for construction is higher than the ratio available in drone alloys). If most of the trit and pye were supplied from mining, you would not see a corresponding increase in the availability (and the resulting drop in price) of the high-ends; you'd be more likely to see a reduction in high-end availability as miners switched from high-ends to low-ends.
The only way to be sure in either of these cases, though, is to check the volumes as well as prices.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.12.11 18:26:00 -
[127]
Originally by: Cor Aidan If most of the trit and pye were supplied from mining, you would not see a corresponding increase in the availability (and the resulting drop in price) of the high-ends; you'd be more likely to see a reduction in high-end availability as miners switched from high-ends to low-ends.
You would think that, but because of the way the ratios work out, increased trit usage depend on the final destination can actually net you lower demand on some high ends over all, no matter where their supply is coming from.
Work out the ratio of costs and percentage totals in your given capital ship and you'll have your answer as to why the high ends are down and the low ends are up. Well more specifically trit being up putting downward pressure on everything. |
Cor Aidan
Imperium Forces Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2008.12.11 19:25:00 -
[128]
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
You would think that, but because of the way the ratios work out, increased trit usage depend on the final destination can actually net you lower demand on some high ends over all, no matter where their supply is coming from.
Work out the ratio of costs and percentage totals in your given capital ship and you'll have your answer as to why the high ends are down and the low ends are up. Well more specifically trit being up putting downward pressure on everything.
I don't understand how increased production of capital ships can possibly result in less demand for high-end minerals though - unless that production is instead of other production with a different mineral ratio.
My assertion was the statement 'increased trit prices mean increased demand' was incomplete. That statement only indicates an increase in demand for trit, not across the board. An increase in demand across the board must increase all prices (for a given level of supply). Only a shift in demand (or supply, technically) (call it a preference change) can explain an increase in some prices and a decrease in others.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.12.11 19:30:00 -
[129]
Originally by: Cor Aidan
I don't understand how increased production of capital ships can possibly result in less demand for high-end minerals though - unless that production is instead of other production with a different mineral ratio.
Exactly |
Tamarana
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Posted - 2008.12.11 22:11:00 -
[130]
The tritanium low until july was caused by a mission: "Insane Industrialist", that requested something like 1 isk for every unit of tritanium and yeald 2.4 M units of tritanium each time. The entire 2 billion units/day of the Khanid and 2 billion units/day of Kor-Azor disappeared in a day after the patch when the CCP killed the mission. And I read about this happening in a few other regions.
The the tritanium market was not cyclic because of the demand of tritanium, it was cyclic because of this bug (probably introduced after the shuttle NPC was removed by the market).
The price started to climb there and it continue to climb now.
I suppose this will happen with the fix of the POS explit.
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Marlenus
Caldari Ironfleet Towing And Salvage Tear Extraction And Reclamation Service
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Posted - 2008.12.11 22:51:00 -
[131]
I noticed last night that I can't reprocess surplus secure containers into minerals any more. Is this related to CCP's removal of mineral caps?
I'm confused by this because I read patch notes with great attention to detail, and I don't remember seeing this change. Anybody know when it happened, and why? (I'd have expected them to reduce mineral amounts if needed, not eliminate the ability to reprocess.) ------------------ Ironfleet.com |
Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2008.12.12 04:41:00 -
[132]
Originally by: Marlenus I noticed last night that I can't reprocess surplus secure containers into minerals any more. Is this related to CCP's removal of mineral caps?
I'm confused by this because I read patch notes with great attention to detail, and I don't remember seeing this change. Anybody know when it happened, and why? (I'd have expected them to reduce mineral amounts if needed, not eliminate the ability to reprocess.)
Interesting, Im stuck on a PC that cannot log in and wont be able to get in game till tomorrow night. Anyone confirm? |
Mara Rinn
Minmatar
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Posted - 2008.12.12 05:42:00 -
[133]
My answer is (6) CCP will just write up a dev blog post about how much fun it is to wander around a region in a fast frigate with Survey Scanner II, scanning entire asteroid fields in one go, finding systems with planet-sized asteroids that haven't been mined for weeks.
There is no shortage of Veldspar in Empire space. There's just a shortage of people willing to go mining instead of running missions for their ISK. When Tritanium reaches about 6 ISK, you'll see the slower level 4 mission runners switching to mining instead - it'll become profitable for them to actually mine those veldspar belts in their level 4 missions. They won't be doing it in barges because barges are slow - they'll be mining in cruisers, which is annoyingly tedious.
Once those Orca BPs get fully researched, the price of Tritanium will come down. Firstly, in the meantime the bulk of people who wanted an Orca and could fly it will already have theirs, secondly the cost to produce an Orca will come down due to 0% waste.
I think if CCP decides that Tritanium is overpriced, they'll just point people at systems which are overflowing with virgin Veldspar belts.
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Cheopis
Amarr One Stop Mining Shop One Stop Research
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Posted - 2008.12.12 08:35:00 -
[134]
As others have posted, I just hope that CCP keeps hands off. There is plenty of trit out there, even if miners have to work hand-in-hand with mission runners to mine out completed missions.
As for why trit is moving up and other minerals are not, my quess would be:
1) Cap ship construction components use huge amounts of trit, and have a pretty low percentage use of other minerals.
2) There are many individuals who normally might be building things with significantly different mineral ratios, who are instead building cap ship components and cap ships/orcas at this time.
3) For those building items of a different mineral mix than cap ship components, it's relatively easy to refine modules to get the high minerals you need, when trit is worth so much. A lot of the people who don't need a whole lot of trit for their manufacturing are module melting for their mineral needs. Since they do not need to buy much of anything in the way of minerals, they don't drive the pricing up. The reduced numbers of people requiring high end minerals for manufacturing simply makes life even easier on those who do need more high mins.
Supply and Demand
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Cheopis
Amarr One Stop Mining Shop One Stop Research
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Posted - 2008.12.12 09:34:00 -
[135]
If for some reason, CCP wants to adjust the mineral value ratios, there is a simple solution.
Alchemy for minerals, or NPC trade for minerals.
Say you could turn 1 pyerite into 2 trit, or the other way around. Pyerite would then pretty much instantly be valued at twice trit value. 1 mex = 2 pyer, 1 iso = 2 mex, etc, etc.
However, I doubt this will ever happen for one main reason. Mineral compression of trit into Morph would be rather extreme, unless there is loss involved in each transition.
With loss tweaking, etc, it might work, and would almost certainly change a large number of market dynamics.
I really do not like the idea, but it is a way to stabilize the price differences between minerals, should CCP ever have any desire to try it.
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Tasko Pal
Heron Corporation
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Posted - 2008.12.12 09:38:00 -
[136]
I must admit I'm a bit distracted by the t2 drama to obsess on trit prices and the pile of zydrine I've been sitting on. I daytraded a little ferrogel (still no clue how it'll swing, just trading the spread). An interesting effect over the past few days was a substantial drop in orca prices in the Forge. My guess is people were selling off orcas in order to raise cash for t2/moon mineral speculation. The price has actually risen a little over the past half day or so. Probably means that people aren't sufficiently isk hungry any more.
Moving on, with the lower price and the above indication of temporary support just under 600 mil, it looks to me like trit prices will be supported at a more modest level for some time to come. As the price continues to decline, I imagine we'll start picking up some orders from people looking to round out their personal fleet. The closer the orca price gets to the insurance payout (or to the reprocessing cost), the more likely this is to occur, I think.
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Lisandraia
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Posted - 2008.12.12 11:57:00 -
[137]
Edited by: Lisandraia on 12/12/2008 11:59:01
Originally by: Cheopis If for some reason, CCP wants to adjust the mineral value ratios, there is a simple solution.
Alchemy for minerals, or NPC trade for minerals.
Say you could turn 1 pyerite into 2 trit, or the other way around. Pyerite would then pretty much instantly be valued at twice trit value. 1 mex = 2 pyer, 1 iso = 2 mex, etc, etc.
There is already a natural mineral value ratio in the game, based on mining yield opportunity cost (1 Pyerite = 1.6 Tritanium, 1 Mexallon = 5.92 Pyerite, etc.) But it's not having too much of an effect on the prices, because of various reasons:
a) BPO ratios differ from the mining opportunity cost ratio
b) Higher transport costs for lower grade minerals
c) Most players just haven't got a clue and happily mine away Omber when they could be making almost twice the money with Veldspar now.
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sir gankalot
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Posted - 2008.12.12 19:08:00 -
[138]
Edited by: sir gankalot on 12/12/2008 19:09:36
Originally by: Lisandraia Edited by: Lisandraia on 12/12/2008 11:59:01
Originally by: Cheopis If for some reason, CCP wants to adjust the mineral value ratios, there is a simple solution.
Alchemy for minerals, or NPC trade for minerals.
Say you could turn 1 pyerite into 2 trit, or the other way around. Pyerite would then pretty much instantly be valued at twice trit value. 1 mex = 2 pyer, 1 iso = 2 mex, etc, etc.
There is already a natural mineral value ratio in the game, based on mining yield opportunity cost (1 Pyerite = 1.6 Tritanium, 1 Mexallon = 5.92 Pyerite, etc.) But it's not having too much of an effect on the prices, because of various reasons:
a) BPO ratios differ from the mining opportunity cost ratio
b) Higher transport costs for lower grade minerals
c) Most players just haven't got a clue and happily mine away Omber when they could be making almost twice the money with Veldspar now.
Meh, players that have a decent hulk normally know that sort of stuff... You'retalking bout noobs or just some occasional miners.
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Mara Rinn
Minmatar
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Posted - 2008.12.13 08:39:00 -
[139]
Originally by: sir gankalot Meh, players that have a decent hulk normally know that sort of stuff... You'retalking bout noobs or just some occasional miners.
There are a lot of un-educated folks out there. I regularly mine up a freighter load of Veldspar in systems where other miners are running back and forth to station in their Hulks, mining Plagioclase.
I'm guessing the downward pressure on minerals other than Tritanium will be due to people like these, mining rocks other than Veldspar in the belief that Plagioclase is somehow much better than Veldspar.
In the meantime, I'll be mining those moon-sized veldspar asteroids that these folks are kindly leaving alone.
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Cheopis
Amarr One Stop Mining Shop One Stop Research
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Posted - 2008.12.13 09:29:00 -
[140]
Originally by: Mara Rinn
Originally by: sir gankalot Meh, players that have a decent hulk normally know that sort of stuff... You'retalking bout noobs or just some occasional miners.
There are a lot of un-educated folks out there. I regularly mine up a freighter load of Veldspar in systems where other miners are running back and forth to station in their Hulks, mining Plagioclase.
I'm guessing the downward pressure on minerals other than Tritanium will be due to people like these, mining rocks other than Veldspar in the belief that Plagioclase is somehow much better than Veldspar.
In the meantime, I'll be mining those moon-sized veldspar asteroids that these folks are kindly leaving alone.
Well, if you actually use the minerals for manufacturing, need significant amounts, and aren't near a trade hub, then simply mining everything might be an attractive idea. I've done it.
If you are near a trade hub then, of course, mine the veld, sell the trit, and buy the other minerals you need
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mannyman
Aliastra
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Posted - 2008.12.13 12:14:00 -
[141]
In all games there is always a nice way of making a income in either starting areas or advanced areas. Today, there is FW which needs more ships, and we need trit to build all those ships. In addition we get new ship classes like the Orca, which helps out pimping the mining industry which was well needed for a loong time.
I think trit will stabilize over time, but it will be at a higher point than we have seen before.
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Cayleu
GoonFleet GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2008.12.13 16:16:00 -
[142]
If CCP did decide trit prices were a problem (I doubt it), they could give us 0.0 super-veldspar with 3-4x more trit. That would also ease the headaches of importation (which I also imagine they dont think is a problem).
We have vast fields of gigantic 0.0 rocks out here, but as a 0.0 miner it is not really worth it for me to mine veldspar unless trit sells for more than 10 isk.
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rubico1337
Caldari nefarious badgers inc
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Posted - 2008.12.13 18:47:00 -
[143]
Edited by: rubico1337 on 13/12/2008 18:47:05 trit is going up because ISK farmers have made a transition from mining belts to running missions, simple as that, and there should absolutely be no bailout or intervention from CCP.
its supply and demand, go mine it yourself
Originally by: Blind Man okies so liek when u warp in on them u shod target them... and stuff k.then u FIRE ZE MISSILES and use your heavy nos cause it drain their cap then u click the jhammer and dampenener |
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