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Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 14:59:00 -
[31] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:So the Goons want to do a suicide interdiction of Jita.
In past 24 hours Jita had 45000 jumps.
Lets half that for number of unique players. That gives us 22,500 jumps.
Lets figure 10% of those are "high value targets" (I'd personally put the number at more like 20% but ok). That means an average of 94 high value jump ins an hour
Lets figure the goons want to kill at least 10% of that number. We'll make this 10 deaths an hours.
Jita is a 0.9 system. A ship can normally get off one, but not two, volleys before getting concorded.
A T2 fit tornado Alphas about 11K with all skills V. A T1 fit alphas around 8000. A freighter has 200,000 EHP requiring 25 ships for the kill. A freighter has less EHP than a properly tanked Orca (by far the most common ship type around Jita these days).
This gives a minimum T1 fit op tempo of at least 250 ships/hour or 6000 ships/day. Assuming a cost of 50m ship this will give us a daily burn rate of 3 Trillion isk/day. Some of this will be offset by loot drops. Lets say half. The goon supposedly have a monthly income of around 1.5 trillion. If they have saved for this for six months, then burn Jita could run for about six days.
Keep in mind this is assuming a low ball ship costs, max skills and a descent recovery rate. All of this to blow up one in every hundred ships heading into Jita.
Conclusion: In a fight between the goons and the market, bet on the market.
You forget about a) all the individuals wallets, b) all the non goon groups taking part, c) goons bet heavily on themselves on the market before anouncing anything so are probably raking in the isk at the same time, d) fear (and speculation) is the main weapon not 1400s, e) Huge numbers of high value targets will not be freighters requiring 25 tornados to die.
People will not jump into Jita if the expect to be ganked, that is the goons aim.
Finally if 1000 CFC plus whatever randoms join in can only pop 10 ships an hour they are doing something very wrong. |
Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:02:00 -
[32] - Quote
6000 ships a day at 50 million each 300 billion anyway not 3 trillion, only out by a factor of ten |
Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:12:00 -
[33] - Quote
Sturmwolke wrote:corestwo wrote: You don't understand the concept of "massive alpha", do you?
Depends on how the logis handle them, the "massive alpha" is not a guarantee.
You don't undesrtand the concept of alpha at all in fact. The concept of alpha ignores logis.
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Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:13:00 -
[34] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:Ave Volta wrote:I don't care who's ships and being blown up at a greater rate. It's all good for the economy Did you really mean to post that under the corp/alliance ticker that you used?
Red Frog is Mittanis alt corp, they will be the only freighters alowed in and out of Jita. Prices will sadly have to rise however.
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Darronis Olachenko
15
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:20:00 -
[35] - Quote
I think it was a big mistake for them to reveal their plans to begin with. If they really wanted maximum effect they shouldn't have said a word, or perhaps even just hinted at something but kept the details tight lipped. Now the only people that will be left in Jita when the end of April rolls around will be those completely oblivious. While I'm sure even that number will be higher than I expect, most people will just shrug and move to Amarr or whatever and continue going about their business. |
Roxwar
The Foreign Legion Test Alliance Please Ignore
35
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:24:00 -
[36] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:Rengerel en Distel wrote:You can find killmails where it takes less than a dozen ships to kill a freighter. If their whole alliance and other griefers really want to destroy everyone, they'll do it. They'll make the isk back just controlling the markets in the other regions.
Yes, it take less than a dozen T2 fit ships to kill a freighter in a 0.5 system where each attacking ship can cycle its guns twice. That is a large difference from a 0.9 system with concord on grid.
You do know concord can be pulled away from sitting on the station grid right by suicide decoys?
But regardless, your missing the point. It's not about how many frieghters will burn daily, it's about the number of frieghter pilots that will put off their market trip for fear of being one of those 4/5 kills per hour. Its the fear factor thats going to have the biggest impact you number crunching ******.
Personally, i cant wait heh http://roxwar.blogspot.com/ |
Doddy
Excidium. Executive Outcomes
57
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:38:00 -
[37] - Quote
Darronis Olachenko wrote:I think it was a big mistake for them to reveal their plans to begin with. If they really wanted maximum effect they shouldn't have said a word, or perhaps even just hinted at something but kept the details tight lipped. Now the only people that will be left in Jita when the end of April rolls around will be those completely oblivious. While I'm sure even that number will be higher than I expect, most people will just shrug and move to Amarr or whatever and continue going about their business.
In the very unlikely event that would happen its not like amarr is far away from Jita is it? Pretty sure in U.s peak when there are more goons in JIta than non goons there will be sub cfleets elsewhere.
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March rabbit
Ganse Shadow of xXDEATHXx
146
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:38:00 -
[38] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:... That gives us 22,500 jumps.
Lets figure 10% of those are "high value targets" (I'd personally put the number at more like 20% but ok). That means an average of 94 high value jump ins an hour ...
how did you get from number of jumps to number of unique characters? You really think there is like 2250 unique freighters in game sitting around Jita and ready to warp each hour to Jita gate? 24 hours in a day gives us like 50k of freighters? |
Sevastian Liao
Hedion University Amarr Empire
10
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:40:00 -
[39] - Quote
Darronis Olachenko wrote:I think it was a big mistake for them to reveal their plans to begin with. If they really wanted maximum effect they shouldn't have said a word, or perhaps even just hinted at something but kept the details tight lipped. Now the only people that will be left in Jita when the end of April rolls around will be those completely oblivious. While I'm sure even that number will be higher than I expect, most people will just shrug and move to Amarr or whatever and continue going about their business.
The completely oblivious make up a goodly percentage of the populace, sadly. If more people actually read the forums to stay informed we'd see less "I just got margin scammed how is that possible" threads.
If the Jita Burning goes through, I'll be taking bets on how many "How are they allowed to do that" threads are going to pop up.
Jarnis McPieksu wrote:They do not need to suicide gank that many ships. Only enough that people stop jumping into Jita due to too high risk of a pricy Freighter/hauler loss.
Word will spread quickly, Jita commerce will be severely impacted and at that point those few clueless idiots that still do jump in can be ganked with fairly small effort.
(This of course all assumes Goons do what they claim they'll do... but otherwise it is fairly easy to predict the outcome of the planned action)
As to what happens after that will be the interesting bit... how long Goons keep it up? How will the market react? Will manufacturers and raw material producers start selling stuff at next door system? What will CCP do when the carebears (predictably) being their whine concert over the ganks?
QFT. The numbers presented fail to take into account the largely predictable player reaction to a sustained lockdown, as has been mentioned. |
EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
13
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Posted - 2012.03.29 15:54:00 -
[40] - Quote
oh no it might be expensive
i hope the 100b of tech i sold this morning will help |
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Kara Roideater
Perkone Caldari State
123
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Posted - 2012.03.29 16:11:00 -
[41] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:oh no it might be expensive
i hope the 100b of tech i sold this morning will help
Putting the pleasure you will get from griefing the general population aside, aren't you just providing your enemies with a 'make Goons poorer' button as long as you stay in Jita? They can get 'pvp wins' just by getting you to lose ships via blowing up their lesser value ships. Kind of a reverse cash dispenser. I fully intend to get my own first pvp victories this way |
Roxwar
The Foreign Legion Test Alliance Please Ignore
35
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Posted - 2012.03.29 16:12:00 -
[42] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:oh no it might be expensive
i hope the 100b of tech i sold this morning will help
Bro, lend me a bill please, i have lots of disposable catalysts/thrashers to buy....
http://roxwar.blogspot.com/ |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
132
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Posted - 2012.03.29 16:22:00 -
[43] - Quote
Kara Roideater wrote:Putting the pleasure you will get from griefing the general population aside, aren't you just providing your enemies with a 'make Goons poorer' button as long as you stay in Jita? They can get 'pvp wins' just by getting you to lose ships via blowing up their lesser value ships. Kind of a reverse cash dispenser. I fully intend to get my own first pvp victories this way
Nobody has ever lost a war because of ISK or killboard stats.
The nullsec war game is all about morale; getting your guys to log in and x up for fleets, and making the enemy players not want to. A large element of Mittani's Goonswarm is regular demonstrations that they are not super-serious space faggots, while they spend the other 99% of their time acting like super-serious space faggots.
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EvilweaselSA
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
13
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Posted - 2012.03.29 16:25:00 -
[44] - Quote
Kara Roideater wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:oh no it might be expensive
i hope the 100b of tech i sold this morning will help Putting the pleasure you will get from griefing the general population aside, aren't you just providing your enemies with a 'make Goons poorer' button as long as you stay in Jita? They can get 'pvp wins' just by getting you to lose ships via blowing up their lesser value ships. Kind of a reverse cash dispenser. I fully intend to get my own first pvp victories this way
putting the pleasure you get from having sex aside, isn't it just sort of boring exercise |
Kara Roideater
Perkone Caldari State
123
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Posted - 2012.03.29 16:28:00 -
[45] - Quote
Darth Tickles wrote:Kara Roideater wrote:Putting the pleasure you will get from griefing the general population aside, aren't you just providing your enemies with a 'make Goons poorer' button as long as you stay in Jita? They can get 'pvp wins' just by getting you to lose ships via blowing up their lesser value ships. Kind of a reverse cash dispenser. I fully intend to get my own first pvp victories this way Nobody has ever lost a war because of ISK or killboard stats. The nullsec war game is all about morale; getting your guys to log in and x up for fleets, and making the enemy players not want to. A large element of Mittani's Goonswarm is regular demonstrations that they are not super-serious space faggots, while they spend the other 99% of their time acting like super-serious space faggots.
Still, won't it give their opponents a chance to boost their own morale, as they will only be losing isk as well - just less of it? Perhaps everyone gets to declare victory, making Burn Jita a selfless and altruistic gesture. |
Kara Roideater
Perkone Caldari State
123
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Posted - 2012.03.29 16:29:00 -
[46] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:Kara Roideater wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:oh no it might be expensive
i hope the 100b of tech i sold this morning will help Putting the pleasure you will get from griefing the general population aside, aren't you just providing your enemies with a 'make Goons poorer' button as long as you stay in Jita? They can get 'pvp wins' just by getting you to lose ships via blowing up their lesser value ships. Kind of a reverse cash dispenser. I fully intend to get my own first pvp victories this way putting the pleasure you get from having sex aside, isn't it just sort of boring exercise
And expensive! |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
132
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Posted - 2012.03.29 16:34:00 -
[47] - Quote
Kara Roideater wrote:Still, won't it give their opponents a chance to boost their own morale, as they will only be losing isk as well - just less of it? Perhaps everyone gets to declare victory, making Burn Jita a selfless and altruistic gesture.
Naw, not really.
Their current enemies aren't very creative in the image game as it is and what you're talking about is a bit of a stretch, so even if there is admittedly an opportunity there, they don't have the talent to exploit it. |
Driftfire
Northern Star Enterprises
0
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Posted - 2012.03.29 18:11:00 -
[48] - Quote
Going to buy a **** load of badgers - or the like. A low- skill alt with Clone in 4/4 and see how many gank a 300k isk ship.... |
Vasili Revenent
Flesh traders Inc
0
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Posted - 2012.03.29 18:30:00 -
[49] - Quote
Meh.
People will adapt. Just like people adapted during the ice interdiction.
This will be almost darwinian in nature.
Whilst a jita interdiction will impact me in some small way I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out.
Say what you like about the goons, they are 'adding content' to the game. |
Ave Volta
Black Frog Logistics Red-Frog
20
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Posted - 2012.03.29 18:50:00 -
[50] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:Ave Volta wrote:I don't care who's ships and being blown up at a greater rate. It's all good for the economy Did you really mean to post that under the corp/alliance ticker that you used?
Yes. The entire freight and logistics industry is dependent on the destruction that fuels the flames of industry.
Of course, it goes without saying, we would rather our ships survive.
Black Frog Logistics - Lowsec/Nullsec Logistics Services. Join ingame channel 'Black Frog' for more info.
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CEO Rockhound
The Treehugger Corp
10
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Posted - 2012.03.29 20:56:00 -
[51] - Quote
Vasili Revenent wrote:Meh.
People will adapt. Just like people adapted during the ice interdiction.
This will be almost darwinian in nature.
Whilst a jita interdiction will impact me in some small way I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out.
Say what you like about the goons, they are 'adding content' to the game.
Your corp can also add content to the game. CFC Interdiction in Jita.
Your corp can do a 'Motsu Interdiction" along with some of your friends. |
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
94
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Posted - 2012.03.29 22:04:00 -
[52] - Quote
Umn im down to 1.5B yhe umn did I miss the items or something? |
Jas Dor
Republic University Minmatar Republic
82
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Posted - 2012.03.29 22:34:00 -
[53] - Quote
I just want to clarify a few things. I'm not saying that Jita burning is morally or ethically wrong. I'm simply saying that I don't think you have the logistics to interdict the level of traffic going through Jita, and didn't properly run the numbers before thinking out this plan.
Nor am I implying that Burn Jita is going to be completely unsuccessful. Goons may well sow enough FUD that the market hub moves to Amar. The issue here though is that for a number of reasons a good chunk of market participants want to move the main trade hub to Amar.
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Krixtal Icefluxor
Bison - Ammatar Thunder Thundering Herd
480
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Posted - 2012.03.29 22:49:00 -
[54] - Quote
This thread needs some Mass Attack:
"Fail attempt has failed to usurp the carebear level of don't care-edness. Carebears don't care so much they don't come to your space and they don't harass you and indeed they don't even fight back. That is the ultimate don't care, and there isn't anything you can do, short of dying of starvation, next to a pack of cheetos, that will demostrate a don't care level beyond that of the carebear." Ohh poor silly goon chillrens. Nobody in high sec cares about your plans to occupy jita like a bunch of dirty hippies. "...as if 10,058 Goon voices-ácried out and were suddenly silenced" |
Catho Sharn
Don't Die Interstellar Enterprises
28
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Posted - 2012.03.29 23:05:00 -
[55] - Quote
Burn Jita is simply a disinformation campaign designed to redirect attention away from null sec operations.
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Rutherford Rainman
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
10
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Posted - 2012.03.30 04:36:00 -
[56] - Quote
All I know is that I'm going to be sitting outside 4-4 on april 28th in a cloaked ship watching the show. I hope the goons deliver. |
OfBalance
Caldari State
335
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Posted - 2012.03.30 04:39:00 -
[57] - Quote
Catho Sharn wrote:Burn Jita is simply a disinformation campaign designed to redirect attention away from null sec operations.
There is a titan pilot who wishes it was a better distraction too. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
113
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Posted - 2012.03.30 05:17:00 -
[58] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:I just want to clarify a few things. I'm not saying that Jita burning is morally or ethically wrong. I'm simply saying that I don't think you have the logistics to interdict the level of traffic going through Jita, and didn't properly run the numbers before thinking out this plan.
Nor am I implying that Burn Jita is going to be completely unsuccessful. Goons may well sow enough FUD that the market hub moves to Amar. The issue here though is that for a number of reasons a good chunk of market participants want to move the main trade hub to Amar.
The fact that you think you actually know "the plan" is cute. Also, it's "Amarr". Two "r".
OfBalance wrote:Catho Sharn wrote:Burn Jita is simply a disinformation campaign designed to redirect attention away from null sec operations.
There is a titan pilot who wishes it was a better distraction too. On the contrary, it was so much a distraction that he jumped instead of bridged! |
OfBalance
Caldari State
335
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Posted - 2012.03.30 05:23:00 -
[59] - Quote
corestwo wrote:On the contrary, it was so much a distraction that he jumped instead of bridged!
Touche. |
Jarnis McPieksu
384
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Posted - 2012.03.30 06:06:00 -
[60] - Quote
Jas Dor wrote:I just want to clarify a few things. I'm not saying that Jita burning is morally or ethically wrong. I'm simply saying that I don't think you have the logistics to interdict the level of traffic going through Jita, and didn't properly run the numbers before thinking out this plan.
Look, just by saying "Goons will do X" will get a major reaction out of carebears. Just watch the markets over the next month or so, people will be stocking up in raw materials and preparing for potential inaccessibility of Jita for at least a week or two. All that without firing a single shot
Plan "Gank every freighter that jumps into Jita on an average day" is, as you stated, logistically unfeasible. Plan "gank every freighter that jumps into Jita on the 'Burn Jita' day" is easily feasible as the first few wrecks will cut down the number of pilots jumping in dramatically. The mere threat of "we'll gank every freighter jumping in" will scare off most of them. Goons can easily blockade every gate against any slow moving ships and Jita market volumes are so huge that covops haulers just can't take care of the business - and even those may be gankable if Goons just pile up enough people into the system (can't cloak if every square kilometer of space around gates is occupied by a Goon)
There is also the secondary issue of Jita population cap. Goons can easily blob out the system so that nobody is even able to jump in, tho such an act may be risky as it may give a reason for CCP to intervene.
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