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fivedollarbitch
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Posted - 2008.09.17 12:19:00 -
[1]
Why does GTC price go up?! well its the basics of supply and demand, just a little bit altered. And the reason is isk farmers, through dual effect!!!
Demand rises abruptly, because ones that do buy and really dont care about the price are the isk-farmers. They are full on isk because there are hundreds of them who rat nonstop 23h a day, each day, have loads of isk and need to extend their accounts to continue ratting without cashhing out in real money. And there is loads of them
Supply diminishes because the people who would normally buy gtc and trade it for isk would now go directly to isk farmers that provide more isk/$. Ofcourse its against ccp rules but you can always do it with an alt or sumting and cover your trail.
In my opinion this is the real long term effect on gtc price
Solution would be to fight isk farmers wither by baning or making pvp players easier to catch them. I know it would be awesome if there is some way to uncloak ships or make them stay longer in the system on scanner when they log of. that would decrease their number and thus lower all the prices
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schmarty pants
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Posted - 2008.09.17 12:48:00 -
[2]
I got to "up?!" then began to melt from boredom.
you're a fivedollaho
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Ricdic
Caldari
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Posted - 2008.09.17 13:32:00 -
[3]
Almost on the right track.
The main part I agreed with you (OP) was the supply and demand statement. I believe due to the GTC changes the occasional GTC RL buyer to convert to isk can no longer comfortably do this as it's out of his price range as a "pocket change" purchase.
Therefore we end up with maybe half the sellers as before with just as many people as before still wanting GTC's causing a rather large price increase. Until we get more GTC sellers, CCP changes back to the old system, or lots of people cancel their extra accounts (reducing demand) I can't see the prices dropping any time soon.
Of the 3 points above I believe point 3 has already begun happening. With Proton and myself alone we have stopped funding 7 accounts between us only keeping our necessary accouns opened. I believe CCP will have a considerable drop in subscriber base now and over the next few months as a result of those changes.
Not so much people quitting Eve, but people choosing to no longer want to have extra accounts. What's interesting is that CCP is trying to counter the mass exodus with the Power of two offer being re-released. |
Athre
Minmatar The Higher Standard
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Posted - 2008.09.17 14:44:00 -
[4]
3rd thread in the last week.... I know EO search bites but eve-search doesnt take long, promise.
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Juliette Leblanc
Gallente Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2008.09.17 15:18:00 -
[5]
There have been multiple threads on multiple forums.
All of them fail badly on the premise: the GTC prices are NOT going up. Whoever says so is trying to scan a whole system with a Snoop probe.
GTC prices are between 330 and 580 milllion isks for a 60d GTC. The prices oscillate in waves. There are multiple waves with different wavelength and magnitude. The biggest wave has a 60 day length. We are now on it's rising edge (almost on top).
The price you can get now is 150-200 million higher than the one you will get next month. If you want a low price do not buy till mid october.
Do not try to explain GTC prices unless you have been monitoring them multiple times a day for at least 80-100 days, because if you didn't you do not have the whole picture.
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RFID
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Posted - 2008.09.17 17:37:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Juliette Leblanc ... Do not try to explain GTC prices unless you have been monitoring them multiple times a day for at least 80-100 days, because if you didn't you do not have the whole picture.
It would be great if we could monitor the price of GTCs in-game like we can for veldspar or Thoraxes. Presumably they would be using real buy-sell prices rather than the fake influential prices on the forums.
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Rho'varo
Minmatar Diversified Operational Services
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Posted - 2008.09.17 17:39:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Juliette Leblanc Do not try to explain GTC prices unless you have been monitoring them multiple times a day for at least 80-100 days, because if you didn't you do not have the whole picture.
Well, it's only been about 90 days since the GTC SKUs and prices were changed, and old inventory took / is taking some time to peter out, so it is not possible for anyone to have data for an 80-100 day span that can be expected to be representative of long run patterns.
Certainly the interaction of seasonality on ISK:time rates under the new GTC pricing model is unknown, since we haven't been through a whole year yet under the new regime.
Quote: The price you can get now is 150-200 million higher than the one you will get next month. If you want a low price do not buy till mid October.
You seem confident in your prediction, and it sounds like you pay close attention to the GTC market: do you trade in GTCs? Would you be willing to enter into some sort of speculative contract involving a trusted third party?
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Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2008.09.17 19:45:00 -
[8]
Why does it go up? Supply and Demand
Why is there another thread about this? Hell if I know
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Srioghal moDhream
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Posted - 2008.09.17 19:46:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Ricdic
Of the 3 points above I believe point 3 has already begun happening. With Proton and myself alone we have stopped funding 7 accounts between us only keeping our necessary accouns opened. I believe CCP will have a considerable drop in subscriber base now and over the next few months as a result of those changes.
Not so much people quitting Eve, but people choosing to no longer want to have extra accounts. What's interesting is that CCP is trying to counter the mass exodus with the Power of two offer being re-released.
Three words:
POWER OF TWO
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Juliette Leblanc
Gallente Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2008.09.17 20:45:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Rho'varo
Originally by: Juliette Leblanc Do not try to explain GTC prices unless you have been monitoring them multiple times a day for at least 80-100 days, because if you didn't you do not have the whole picture.
Well, it's only been about 90 days since the GTC SKUs and prices were changed, and old inventory took / is taking some time to peter out, so it is not possible for anyone to have data for an 80-100 day span that can be expected to be representative of long run patterns.
Long run, maybe not. But the 60d wave is already on the second cycle. Many people could foresee it by mere reasoning since CCP announced they were to discontinue the 30, 50, 90 and 100 day GTCs. And it has been observed. Prices for 60d cards were around 450-480 in july, around 330-350 in august. Now they are around 480-500. And they will be back down in mid october.
The long term trend is probably inflationary, and the causes may be those you read on these threads. But the current peak is not due to the long term trend. It's due to the fact we are in the hight of the first 60d renewal wave. It will take a few cycles to spread out. I think it should, with time, level at around 380-400m. If you compare that value to the old market, even taking into consideration the higher dollar price CCP asks now and other factors like diminished competition (only one GTC size instead of multiple) you'll see it IS a little bit inflationary. But not hugely. And it MAY level out to less than that.
Of course there may be several perturbations: patches, expansions, new GTC sizes (like the recent availability of a 10 day GTC from the asian market) etc. All these will change the market. If Midas or the speed nerf come out early in october, the current wave will not see a low (or it'll not be as low as it would be without any patch).
Originally by: Rho'varo Certainly the interaction of seasonality on ISK:time rates under the new GTC pricing model is unknown, since we haven't been through a whole year yet under the new regime.
Seasonality probably is unknown. I speculate it will follow the same trends it did before, but I have no real data. But, again, there's a very clear 60d wave here that is not "seasonal". And data is more than sufficient for seeing that wave. I have several 60d GTCs on hold since late july. Still not selling because I think prices will go up a little bit more before going down.
Originally by: Rho'varo
Quote: The price you can get now is 150-200 million higher than the one you will get next month. If you want a low price do not buy till mid October.
You seem confident in your prediction, and it sounds like you pay close attention to the GTC market: do you trade in GTCs? Would you be willing to enter into some sort of speculative contract involving a trusted third party?
I do trade (long term. Like selling a little bunch of GTCs at each wave, trying to hit on the peak, and then waiting for the next wave). And then I go and buy GTCs for my own accounts during the lows. Of course precise speculation is hard and nearly impossible (else I'd be rich in RL by stock trading).
But if you want to bet on a one month 'long' for GTCs, I'm willing to speculate on a 'short'. This is of course risky as any perturbation can change the game. But the price RIGHT NOW is at 480-500, and rising. I'm willing to take your challenge and bet on it being 420 or less in mid october.
Note that I think it could hit 580 before going down and that it will go down to 360 or less by mid october, but I'm not going to speculate to those extremes. If I have to actually put down any money, I'll do it on more conservative values (as in the above paragraph).
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Wydo
Boiler Room Trades Rising Darkness
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Posted - 2008.09.18 00:45:00 -
[11]
A 60 day GTC is running at $34.95 USD... and folks want to buy it at 400-500 Mil...
1Bn isk on the sites selling isk is roughly $34.95.
You figure it out.
The parasites are selling isk, pocketing half, and using the other half to buying timecards that are too cheap compared to ingame inflation.
No, I know it is not that simple. I am sure CCP catches some of them and they experience some losses -- but apparently they are not catching them enough.
FACTOID -- According to their website at oofay.com -- they deliverd 36.5 Billion isk yesterday. Yesterday -- and that is just one site.
WTF!
Expect that GTCs will have to normalize to supply and demand -- and BTW 400-500 Mil per card... thats not the price
Sorry for the bad news
Just my 2 pence
~Wydo
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Kord Rim
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Posted - 2008.09.18 18:46:00 -
[12]
Digital Currency Farmers are the bane of every MMORPGs' economy.
I have a deep suspicion that CCP (like all other mmo-companies) have either become dependent upon their subscriptions or they are at least welcoming the income generated from their activity.
Yeah, CCP warns players off from buying from them, but at the same time, CCP wants/needs to pocket that 1/4th of China's business expense.
It's not a problem likely to change any time soon.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.09.19 03:00:00 -
[13]
Hey, a thread about GTC's! How unique!
I personally hope prices go up more, it's fun watching so many people complain. Maybe we can get the prices to hit 1b!
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Market Garden
Operation Market Garden
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Posted - 2008.09.19 04:03:00 -
[14]
OP fails at even a basic level of understanding of the market.
Juliette Leblanc has it spot on.
End of really.
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Karanth
Gallente Eve's Brothers of Destiny FOUNDATI0N
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Posted - 2008.09.19 08:14:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Shadarle Hey, a thread about GTC's! How unique!
I personally hope prices go up more, it's fun watching so many people complain. Maybe we can get the prices to hit 1b!
/me buys GTCs and starts listing higher
You'd think GTCs were the friggin' barrels of crude oil in EVE or something, the way everyone craps their pants when the prices rise a tiny bit.
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Wheel of Whineage |
Sharra Savente
Domini Umbrus Free Trade Zone.
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Posted - 2008.09.19 12:33:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Srioghal moDhream
Originally by: Ricdic
Of the 3 points above I believe point 3 has already begun happening. With Proton and myself alone we have stopped funding 7 accounts between us only keeping our necessary accouns opened. I believe CCP will have a considerable drop in subscriber base now and over the next few months as a result of those changes.
Not so much people quitting Eve, but people choosing to no longer want to have extra accounts. What's interesting is that CCP is trying to counter the mass exodus with the Power of two offer being re-released.
Three words:
POWER OF TWO
...and in 6 months, the GTC sellers will be able to ask nearly anything they want. *WTB 60d gtc 5 months from now... * ____ English doesn't borrow from other languages; it follows other languages down dark alleys, coshes 'em, then rummages in their pockets for loose bits of grammar. |
fivedollarbitch
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Posted - 2008.09.20 19:33:00 -
[17]
well my point main pont is
ofc there is fluctuations due to all kinds of things BUT
Say if ccp was to ban all script ratters and chinese farmers it would make the gtc prices go way down for good.
Ergo this post was made as a plea for CCP to help us get rid of isk sellers or help us help them get rid of them, for the good of both
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Treelox
Amarr Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2008.09.20 20:51:00 -
[18]
Originally by: fivedollar*****
Ergo this post was made as a plea for CCP to help us get rid of isk sellers or help us help them get rid of them, for the good of both
CCP doesnt read MD, didnt you get the memo. MD doesnt even have its own dev.... --
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Robacz
Essence Trade Essence Enterprises
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Posted - 2008.09.20 22:10:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: fivedollar*****
Ergo this post was made as a plea for CCP to help us get rid of isk sellers or help us help them get rid of them, for the good of both
CCP doesnt read MD, didnt you get the memo. MD doesnt even have its own dev....
CCP Chronotis posts here now and then.
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Treelox
Amarr Market Jihadist Revolutionary Party
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Posted - 2008.09.20 22:29:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Robacz
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: fivedollar*****
Ergo this post was made as a plea for CCP to help us get rid of isk sellers or help us help them get rid of them, for the good of both
CCP doesnt read MD, didnt you get the memo. MD doesnt even have its own dev....
CCP Chronotis posts here now and then.
i know that...
but he is not who you would appeal to sbout farmers raising gtc prices. my point being this is the wrong forum to post in if the OP's intent was to raise ccp's awareness about this "issue"(a non issue as far as im concerned). --
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2008.09.21 02:47:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Robacz
Originally by: Treelox
Originally by: fivedollar*****
Ergo this post was made as a plea for CCP to help us get rid of isk sellers or help us help them get rid of them, for the good of both
CCP doesnt read MD, didnt you get the memo. MD doesnt even have its own dev....
CCP Chronotis posts here now and then.
Time to fix your sarcasm meter!
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Jinx Barker
GFB Scientific
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Posted - 2008.09.21 04:27:00 -
[22]
1) ISK Farming is not against the rules of the game. 2) Module Farming is not against the rules of the game.
Now that we cleared that up....
ISK vs. GTC = Market forces at work, first part was correct supply and demand.
Since CCP has changed the prices and time durations of GTC available, at 35 Dollars a GTC it is no longer a "casual" ISK acquisition. So, a significant number of former, "casual," sellers dropped from the market, we are talking about students, and people on a fixed, or limited income, who no longer see $70 Dollars (if lets say average seller usually had 2x GTC for sale) as trifling sum to spend on the game per month, in addition to one's regular subscription fee.
Demand remained the same, if not grown, since it makes more sense to use ISK, especially for the people in many Eastern European countries, where Dollar/Euro are still more valuable than their own currencies, to buy the play time, than spend a week's earnings to play a game.
Now, that demand stayed the same, and supply has diminished, we see that the average price for GTC has gone up.
So, repeat after me, again, ISK FARMING IS ALLOWED AND IS ENCOURAGED IN EVE, IT IS NOT AGAINST THE RULES OF THE GAME TO FARM ISK, MODULES, AND ANYTHING ELSE THAT BRINGS IN THE ISK....
It is AGAINST THE RULES TO SELL ISK FOR RL CURRENCY, UNLESS YOU USE CCP'S APPROVED METHODS.
Have a nice day.
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Aniel Zaar
Gallente Light of Orion
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Posted - 2008.09.22 07:48:00 -
[23]
If I understand you correctly, then you are implying that you want fixed GTC prices? Notgonnahappen. Obviously GTC will go to highest bidder, and it has nothing to do with the way the highest bidder got his ISKs. Stop whining and get to farming.
PS: I've never bought a GTC for ISK, and never will. I have fun in EVE and I don't want to have a mentality of where I have to sit and farm for any no-matter-how-short period of time to continue to play this game. Don't have a way to pay for EVE with RL money? Get a job: 4 hours of work = 3 months of EVE. Already have one and don't have extra 15$ a month to play EVE? Get into therapy, because you really should not be playing an MMO if you are in that situation.
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21 Salvager
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Posted - 2008.09.22 10:57:00 -
[24]
Reply to GTC prices and amount sold: Needs analysis by Dr. EyjoG if you want some real analysis.
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Rho'varo
Minmatar Diversified Operational Services
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Posted - 2008.09.24 01:11:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Juliette Leblanc If you want to bet on a one month 'long' for GTCs, I'm willing to speculate on a 'short'. [...] I'm willing to take your challenge and bet on it being 420 or less in mid october.
Thanks! That is the sort of thing I had in mind, and could be operationalised as a simple "bet" about what future GTC prices will be. However, having watched the market for a few more days, I think it would be difficult to find "official" numbers to settle such a bet, since so little concrete information about actual GTC sales is publicly available, so my mild hankering for some gambling is probably best encapsulated in the timing of my own possible GTC-purchase(s).
I'll definitely be interested checking back to see how your predictions fared, though.
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ISpam
OHHAYGUYS
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Posted - 2008.09.24 01:34:00 -
[26]
The real problem with gtcs is they havent gone up enough.
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Juliette Leblanc
Gallente Federal Navy Academy
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Posted - 2008.09.24 02:13:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Rho'varo However, having watched the market for a few more days, I think it would be difficult to find "official" numbers to settle such a bet, since so little concrete information about actual GTC sales is publicly available, so my mild hankering for some gambling is probably best encapsulated in the timing of my own possible GTC-purchase(s).
That's true: there's no way to get an official value. And that makes it actually hard to setup the sort of bet we were talking about. But timing your GTC trades is already a gamble. The best thing you can do is trade GTCs on both sides, as I do. I have sold several GTCs and have several more ready to go (probably some will go soon). And I have also bought them for my own accounts (I have several).
In the 'low' periods I tend not to sell, therefore I'm a bit fuzzy with regard of the maximum price a seller can get. But I do buy and have a good idea of what the low prices are. The opposite happens in the "hight" periods: I know how much I sell them for because ... I do sell them. Of course I have no way to prove it, but I do know.
I also have some idea of the character trading market, but that's a completely different story (I breed several characters, some of them I bought some I made myself, and will then sell them back to the market).
Originally by: Rho'varo I'll definitely be interested checking back to see how your predictions fared, though.
Well, me too ;) The ones I made in July fared pretty well (but since I only discussed them on the ingame chat, not on the forums, I cannot prove it). In early september I made one prediction and, one or two days later, I revised my position about it and the revised version has been my 'official position' thereafter (and in this thread). Now it seems my earlier prediction was more accurate than my revised one. But we need to wait at least another fortnight to be sure. I'm not going to say more now because ... well, I do not want to influence the market too much right now.
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Elrca
Brutor tribe
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Posted - 2008.09.24 11:57:00 -
[28]
Its really simple, prices will keep going up until people stop buying at those prices, prices will come down to a decent level then more buyers come in prices rise...oh wait..thats "Supply and demand"
The thing is I remember the days whare 30day GTC would cost you 100mil, with 90 days being 280mil..a long time ago..
I was happy with the 30days being 150mil and 90day being 320Mil that was a good investment for me..I stopped buying GTCS when they went above that price.
The thing is now we only have 1 choice 60day, you would think the price would be somewhere in between the 30 and 90 day GTC a good value being 280 mil..
The GTC market is way over priced and thats why this account will be in actave within the next 48 hours, I refuse to buy a these crazy prices...and come next June if the prices are not sensible my "main" account will go inactive too. Well thats unless I can afford to pay the game with ú's but with the economics atm I can't afford to put ú's into a space ship game...no matter how much I love it.
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Rho'varo
Minmatar Diversified Operational Services
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Posted - 2008.10.21 14:10:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Juliette Leblanc On 2008-09-17: I'm willing to speculate on a 'short'. This is of course risky as any perturbation can change the game. But the price RIGHT NOW is at 480-500, and rising. I'm willing to take your challenge and bet on it being 420 or less in mid October.
Note that I think it could hit 580 before going down and that it will go down to 360 or less by mid October, but I'm not going to speculate to those extremes.
The elimination of Ghost Training may have had some impact on the GTC market, but my inexpert impression was that prices did not head up toward 580 MISK near the end of September, nor did they start down toward 360 MISK by the time the Ghost Training change surfaced (on 2008-10-13, I think, very close to "mid October" in any case).
Any follow-up thoughts?
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YouGotRipped
Ewigkeit
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Posted - 2008.10.21 19:59:00 -
[30]
5 dollars my ass!! I'm offering 4 dollars and not one cent more!!!
The amount of GTCs available at a given time is directly related to the influx of new players which culminated with the launch of Empirean Age etc, etc. If I were to look at GTCs price history I'd expect to see a trough at that particular time and a slow but steady increase ever since. Right now even if CCP is advertising the game with the same fervor (which I doubt it) the increase in population (seasoned players paying with isk) severely destabilizes the supply and demand ratio.
And yes, the removal of Ghost training didn't help a bit.
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