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243636
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2011.11.16 18:37:00 -
[1] - Quote
With the announced changes to the PI and player owned customs offices being confirmed by CCP will this mean the value of existing PI products go up overall due to higher taxes to combine low end PI into higher end products? Will the changes mean less people doing PI and this drive up the prices too? Should I buy now before the prices rise or wait abit till they fall off from the pre-announcement speculation and then buy just before the launch date? Or should I just stay away from it as its likely to go down as masses of people release there massive stores in hope of a profit and the market crashes?
If the prices will go up has anyone crunched the numbers and seen by how much the new tax rates will affect the prices or even how much the anticipated changes affect the market?
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Tekota
The Freighter Factory
44
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Posted - 2011.11.16 18:57:00 -
[2] - Quote
Fire up the speculatotron!
First off, the announcement spike has already happened, and fallen off a little, and risen a little again since the actual announcement some weeks back. Furthermore, buy and holders will likely have their stocks already (though the announcement spike did briefly go quite high, tempting some sell off).
The effect of the tax increase in high sec appears to be actually pretty small.
The effect on low sec / null sec / WH will be a little more gradual than before with existing customs offices now having one "life" rather than instant despawning.
Personally I expect to see goods, and the chain for those goods, for POCOs to spike with greater force than general PI goods but all will ultimately see a rise in price long term, with considerable instability for a while as the market settles. Speculation will be a bigger and more volatile driver for some weeks.
As to what you should do - that's really up to you. Anything I tell you to do would either be me attempting to scare you off my lawn or attempting to entice you into my trap :o) |
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
365
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Posted - 2011.11.16 22:40:00 -
[3] - Quote
I expect to see all PI-sourced goods go up a solid 30% after launch and stay at least 20-25% above historical norms due to decreased supply (due to it being far more difficult to farm PI goods in lo-sec now).
Depending on where the tariff rates end up in hi-sec, will determine just how much prices will jump on top of that. Right now, tariff amounts for P1/P2 are miniscule (under 0.5% of market value) and have little effect on pricing. P3 pays a bit more (in the 2-5% range, and P4 pays about 5-10% effective tax rate right now). But the tariff amounts on Sisi are still extremely screwed up, so nobody knows exactly where CCP is going to set the number. |
Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
89
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Posted - 2011.11.16 23:12:00 -
[4] - Quote
The hard edge on any shortage slump has been reduced since the initial anoucement, COs will not vanish overnight, and instead be handed over to interbus. The prices over all should increase somewhat but I would not expect long term trends higher than the 10-20% range.
The big question is, how many people will go out and pop interbus owned COs for LOLs. Anyone with the intention of making a profit from PI will have to carefully consider if the purchase, construction and deployment of a new one is worth it or not when a free one is already there.
Hopefully goons and others get bored with Galapanty ice and go on an interbus CO rampage. |
Akrasjel Lanate
Naquatech Conglomerate
188
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Posted - 2011.11.17 09:37:00 -
[5] - Quote
To slow we know about it from some time. Byt was meh when CCP anounced that 0.0 and low CO will be still there till someone destroy it. Hope that some alliances will purge them... |
Alisarina
Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation
7
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Posted - 2011.11.17 11:09:00 -
[6] - Quote
I can see the low sec Customs Offices getting blown up by bored Goons in their new BC's or other ships of choice for the simple reason being...that they are there and that they cannot find any more miners to gank. So don't worry, low sec, least the ones close to empire, will be purged VERY fast...I expect half of them to be wiped out in the first week or two, possibly even more.
Due to this the people that used low sec PI base materials to fuel their high sec factory planets will either shut up shop, or be forced to relocate to high sec for extraction and thus greatly reduce their total output of processed goods. They may need to purchase off the market when they didn't used to need to. It will create more demand and there will be less supply. Tariffs/taxes aside with the new POCO's, the simple reduction in supply of the lower end P0/P1's will result in a price rise in P2-P4 products, then tack on associated tax/tariff increases and there you go, price boost. Wouldn't be surprised at a 10-20% boost in cost for most items along with a greater increase in PoS fuel related products and POCO construction P4's (not everyone that wants one would of stocked up already...or where just late to the party).
PI materials price up...more news at 10! |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
13
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Posted - 2011.11.17 17:50:00 -
[7] - Quote
Player owned vs Player needed...
Just because a player can own one and deploy it, and charge tax doesn't mean a player needs it.
Some food for thought.. Pirate Corps/Alliances in low/null sec are probably not going to go around blow these things up. Well they will at first, but there is more ISK if they themselves deploy the thing..
Lets say my corp holds a low-sec system, we gate camp, we pirate and loot the system etc. It's in our corps best interest to own all the customs offices in the system. So we kill everyone that doesn't belong to us, and deploy our own. This will likely be the case in most low/null-sec systems, only those contested will be different. Those in established systems will not. That said, in all likely hood they'll charge the full 100% export tax.
WH systems I predict will be similar, they'll all have customs offices but they'll be owned by the system holder etc. I think the office themselves will be in a BIG demand at the start, then level off and almost be non-existent sales unless there is a big power shift.
If 5% tax in the new system is what we're paying right now, I predict the export taxes will be about 20x higher, which will raise the cost of the item about 10-30% depending on the item.
The small problem is, once the price increase takes hold, the question becomes.. where is the price break. When does volume of goods become less profitable per unit, then taking a smaller amount but not paying exorbitant export tax.. People are not stupid, if I'm making 10 ISK a unit in highsec for 100 units after taxes, and people in low/null-sec are making 7 ISK a unit for 140 units after taxes, guess who is profiting more..
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Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
51
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Posted - 2011.11.17 19:49:00 -
[8] - Quote
I have already bought up decent stock of PI mats. Never underestimate the asshattery levels of griefers, or the greed of null sec alliances.
The griefers WILL destroy as many CO's as possible, as soon as possible, just to create mayhem.
Further, it behooves the large alliances to wipe out as much low sec PI mfg as possible, so the PI they do in their secure 0.0 enclaves is as lucrative as possible. I also imagine Goons et all have scoped out what low sec planets they plan on taking over.
By Feb 1, I imagine that 50-60% of all lucrative low sec planets will be under the control of large null sec alliances. A nullsec alliance will drop a dozen Moros into a system supported by who knows how many smaller ships and reinforce 10 POCO's in 90 minutes, and there will be nothing the smaller corps/alliances can do about it. |
243636
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2011.11.18 07:21:00 -
[9] - Quote
Dinsdale Pirannha wrote:I have already bought up decent stock of PI mats. Never underestimate the asshattery levels of griefers, or the greed of null sec alliances.
The griefers WILL destroy as many CO's as possible, as soon as possible, just to create mayhem.
Further, it behooves the large alliances to wipe out as much low sec PI mfg as possible, so the PI they do in their secure 0.0 enclaves is as lucrative as possible. I also imagine Goons et all have scoped out what low sec planets they plan on taking over.
By Feb 1, I imagine that 50-60% of all lucrative low sec planets will be under the control of large null sec alliances. A nullsec alliance will drop a dozen Moros into a system supported by who knows how many smaller ships and reinforce 10 POCO's in 90 minutes, and there will be nothing the smaller corps/alliances can do about it.
I had already heard something along these lines from alliance members so this is why I thought prices might go up significantly if goons do to PI what there doing to Isotopes. I heard figures of more than 20% rises accross the board so I have decided to invest now while the prices are low still. Even if they only rise a bit it will be like keeping up with inflation haha. Thanks for all the helpful replys guys.
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zama118
FACTS on EVE RED.OverLord
5
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Posted - 2011.11.18 13:18:00 -
[10] - Quote
i belive if you play this area right this a lot of money to be made just after the patch
just keep an eye on them market details people always tend to over react in the 1st few days of a change in this size the smart ones will make a tidy profit reacting with that |
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pmchem
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
68
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Posted - 2011.11.18 17:18:00 -
[11] - Quote
gonna be a gigantic flop on release and don't expect a lasting spike, details here: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=33468&find=unread |
Marsan
Production N Destruction INC. Blue Moon Alliance
2
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Posted - 2011.11.18 23:50:00 -
[12] - Quote
The right time to buy was when the 1st dev blog came out. (10/18) Prices went through the roof over the next 2-3 days. Since then the price of PI goods has only gone down. So buying now is likely a bad idea unless you have isk lying around you want to commit for months. Also the 2nd blog on this is driving prices down as the CO are NOT going to all explode every where but HS. (So folks have time to build offices, and NPC office will still be common for months.) Personally I'd wait for prices to stabilize and/or an announced date for this change. Prices are going to go up long term but only once it sinks in that PI goods are going to cost more. Now if you said you were producing PI goods I recommend not selling them as the price will only go up in the long term. (I personally haven't sold any PI for a month.) I expect lots of people are dusting of their PI alts which is the only reason PI hoarding hasn't hurt the market yet.
PS- Most people missed this in the forums but NPC CO don't have a reinforcement timer. They just go boom. So LS NPC CO's will not survive long in populated areas. |
243636
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2011.11.19 16:57:00 -
[13] - Quote
Thats my point. With no reinforcement timers LS NPC customs offices are suseptable to being popped by roaming griefers which will pop them just to get people to fight or to drive the prices up considerably. I think that people who dont think prices wil change by much are in for a very rude awakening. Im gonna sink 50 bil or so as a 6-9 month investment I think. There are also products that can only be made with 1 or 2 types of extractor and these coincidently are also in the group of planets that there are fewest of in highsec/lowsec. Once lowsec PI gets cut down by 75% the only realistic place for them to be sourced is highsec as I cant see people jump freightering low end PI to Jita. I think there are still quite a few under valued products that will go through a re valueation once the dust settles.
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Zelda Wei
New Horizon Trade Exchange
15
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Posted - 2011.11.19 18:22:00 -
[14] - Quote
The turn over of Planetary CC is 500-1000 per day per type.
There are enough P4 on the market to make less than 2000 POCO.
Expect the demand to blow right though that supply. |
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University Ivy League
391
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Posted - 2011.11.25 05:45:00 -
[15] - Quote
Possibly final import/export tariff numbers are on Sisi. Looks like they took the average market value of all of the PI goods in a particular tier and divided by 10 to get the export tariff (with a bit of rounding off).
Market impact will mean that instead of tariff fees being a minor issue for P1/P2, you're going to have to include those in your calculations. For P1, the low-priced P1s are going to immediately have to go up 30-60 ISK/u (import tariff is 25, export is 50). The higher priced P1s will probably only go up a flat 50 ISK/u.
This will trickle down through the layers, probably boosting prices about 10% per layer (so 20% higher prices for P2, 30% higher for P3, 40% higher for P4).
Smart producers will attempt to do setups where you buy as low on the tier as possible and turn it into the final product, skipping as many import/export steps as possible. Such as a P1->P3 factory world instead of doing separate P1->P2, moving product, then doing P2->P3 on another planet. |
Bloody Wench
135
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Posted - 2011.11.26 18:53:00 -
[16] - Quote
Tekota wrote:The effect on low sec / null sec / WH will be a little more gradual than before with existing customs offices now having one "life" rather than instant despawning.
Not arguing or doubting you on this, but can someone point me to a source please?
NVM..
http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&nbid=3075
I just read all those too, but missed it.
You fkin dogs..
# Interbus Customs Offices will not be de-spawned, they will remain until destroyed by players # The Interbus Corporation will charge slightly more tax than CONCORD and we will continue to monitor the tax rates for both CONCORD and Interbus
So my WH offices will have to be paid forby me or pay more than hisec? howboutgosuckadick? |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
397
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Posted - 2011.11.28 07:12:00 -
[17] - Quote
Bloody Wench wrote:So my WH offices will have to be paid forby me or pay more than hisec? howboutgosuckadick? Or put up your own and never pay tax at all (collect from others if you want) until somebody shoots down your POCO (just for kicks or to put up their own).
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Contributor_name:Akita_T#Contributions_link_collection |
El 1974
Bendebeukers Green Rhino
31
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Posted - 2011.11.28 07:54:00 -
[18] - Quote
What surprises me is that nobody seems to have plans to build these things. Where are the threads of people needing loans to build them (~10 for each system/WH)? Where's that IPO of the company that plans to build and manage them as a business? I have the isk, can train my alt to run its own corp, but there just doesn't seem to be any viable business case for them. At least not as long as there's still Interbus COs around. |
Ulstan
State Protectorate Caldari State
0
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Posted - 2011.11.28 17:25:00 -
[19] - Quote
El 1974 wrote:What surprises me is that nobody seems to have plans to build these things. Where are the threads of people needing loans to build them (~10 for each system/WH)? Where's that IPO of the company that plans to build and manage them as a business? I have the isk, can train my alt to run its own corp, but there just doesn't seem to be any viable business case for them. At least not as long as there's still Interbus COs around.
0.0 Alliances will build them on their own and will hardly advertise the fact. They aren't needed in high sec.
So that leaves low sec. Sure, anyone can make a corp to build and manage POCO's in lowsec...but can you defend them in lowsec? Probably not.
I see all the low sec POCO's getting knocked down in short order and no one feeling interested in investing the ISK/Time to install/protect new ones. So PI moves to high sec or null sec.
The only place it would make any kind of sense at all to run a POCO business is in high sec, where someone would have to wardec you to take out the POCO's. However high sec POCO's are all being assigned to concord instead of being replaced by player owned/operated structures.
In Lowsec, any bored group of pirates / FWers / 0.0 roamers can and will blow your stuff up in short order.
POCO's in low sec are very vulnerable structures that take a LONG TIME to earn back their initial investment, let alone all the time/isk you spend defending them after that (if you are even able to).
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pmchem
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
91
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Posted - 2011.11.28 17:55:00 -
[20] - Quote
Ulstan wrote: In Lowsec, any bored group of pirates / FWers / 0.0 roamers can and will blow your stuff up in short order.
POCO's in low sec are very vulnerable structures that take a LONG TIME to earn back their initial investment, let alone all the time/isk you spend defending them after that (if you are even able to).
If I lived in lowsec I'd love the new POCOs. Say me and my pirate (or FW) corp base out of Constellation X. We knock down all the Interbus COs on good planets and replace them with our POCOs, giving them a tax rate just 1% lower than Interbus so people try to use them. Then we blow those people up when they do use them and take their loot. If someone reinforces our POCOs, they have a timer which WE control. We get pvp-on-a-platter served up to us at a time of our choosing, pretty much ideal for a pirate group. Plus the POCOs provide passive income on a corp scale, which the pirate corp didn't have before except for moons.
If I'm a lowsec industrialist and planet user, I just have to be a good blockade runner and not get caught by pirates. Nothing new there! Or maybe these corps are looking to hire someone to administer and build POCOs... business opportunity? |
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