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Silver Ott
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
4
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Posted - 2013.11.15 19:06:00 -
[1] - Quote
can anyone in the know tell me how mining ice compares to reg ore in high sec (isk/hour wise)
and where do you guys see the price being in 3/6/12 months from now
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Tul Breetai
Impromptu Asset Requisition Insurance Fraud.
340
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Posted - 2013.11.15 19:11:00 -
[2] - Quote
Silver Ott wrote:can anyone in the know tell me how mining ice compares to reg ore in high sec (isk/hour wise)
and where do you guys see the price being in 3/6/12 months from now
You come in here asking for specific info and you'll be trolled. Try asking how to find the information for yourself. There's nothing worse than an EVE player, generally considered to be top of the food chain in the MMO world, that cannot smacktalk with wit and coherency. |
OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
260
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Posted - 2013.11.15 22:45:00 -
[3] - Quote
More importantly, why do you hate yourself? Ice mining makes regular mining look like fun. |
Silver Ott
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
4
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Posted - 2013.11.15 22:47:00 -
[4] - Quote
the last time i mined had to have been at least 8 years ago :D hence not being up to date with all bonuses etc and a litle lazy |
Silver Ott
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
4
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Posted - 2013.11.15 22:51:00 -
[5] - Quote
let me clarify a little im not trying to figure out whats profitable to mine just how ise mining compares and how the prices most likely are going to move |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4664
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Posted - 2013.11.15 23:05:00 -
[6] - Quote
If you want I can post a chart saying what price is doing and will probably do in the next future. But to some, showing a chart is like showing a red banner to an enraged bull. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Silver Ott
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
4
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Posted - 2013.11.15 23:07:00 -
[7] - Quote
a chart would be more then i could of hope for so yes please
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4664
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Posted - 2013.11.16 01:32:00 -
[8] - Quote
Since it takes about an hour to prepare it and it's very late, I am going to post it tomorrow after DT. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Samroski
Games Inc. The Night Crew Alliance
327
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Posted - 2013.11.16 05:25:00 -
[9] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Since it takes about an hour to prepare it and it's very late, I am going to post it tomorrow after DT. VV, you're just crazy!
(I mean this in the nicest way).
imho, comparing the two is meaningless, as both suck, and they will continue to suck for the foreseeable future, till ring mining comes in, when it will suck even more. Any colour you like. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4669
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Posted - 2013.11.16 08:44:00 -
[10] - Quote
Samroski wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Since it takes about an hour to prepare it and it's very late, I am going to post it tomorrow after DT. VV, you're just crazy! (I mean this in the nicest way).
In a dark, dystopian universe where dog eats dog and everyone IS out to get you...
... Vaerah gives you a giant space hug!
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4669
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Posted - 2013.11.16 08:46:00 -
[11] - Quote
By the way the "post after DT" is not because I am lazy.
It's because:
1) I am about to go out and do stuff, eat at restaurant with friends etc.
2) The weekly candle bar closes at Saturday post DT. Weekly candle bars are VERY important.
3) Since it takes 1 hour to prepare it's more logical to do it past DT, because the daily candle bar close after Saturday DT as well. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
JamDunc
Team JK
104
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Posted - 2013.11.16 13:51:00 -
[12] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Weekly candle bars are VERY important.
Whats a Candle Bar?
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4672
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Posted - 2013.11.16 16:57:00 -
[13] - Quote
JamDunc wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Weekly candle bars are VERY important. Whats a Candle Bar?
It's a particular price representation. It comes with some nice properties (actually way too many to list here), but in short:
- each candle bar holds 3+ values representing a trading session (day or whatever), usually OHLC data. OHLC data means, each candle bar tells the Opening price, High for the day, Low for the day and Closing price.
- the relations between the graphical element that is generated with those 4 values tells the market sentiment for that day. That in turn hints at what may come next.
- candle bars are fractally auto-similar. That is, a monthly bar holds 4 weekly bars which in turn hold 5 to 7 daily bars (depends on the days the market is closed). Appropriately looking at multiple time frames hints at what price may do next.
I know this is way too little to explain you why those things are good - much better than EvE price charts - but I seriously risk a total TLDR here, because describing a candle bar is like describing a woman. You could go on for months without scratching the surface!
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4672
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Posted - 2013.11.16 17:32:00 -
[14] - Quote
Here the fresh charts come!
Monthly chart
WPD We are still above the super-strong support trend line. This means for now buyers are still reigning uncontrasted.
Chart link.
Weekly chart
WPD
Here the super strong trend line may be seen in all its majesty.
I'd like to ask Mynna about it. How does his own markets analysis methodology explain that?
In my method, you can see buyers and sellers are fiercely battling over Big Round Number 800 ISK. They formed a tight range market I marked with a yellow rectangle. Whoever will win the 800 price level level fight will drag price outside that zone (look at it as it was a gigantic tug of war, where price is the ribbon tied to the rope, buyers and sellers are trying to pull the rope till price leaves a rectangle drawn on the floor. That rectangle is the yellow one I have drawn.
Chart link
Daily chart
WPG
Price is exactly at the middle of the fight zone (800 BRN).
Chart link
I have drawn three of the possible scenarios.
- Scenario 1: buyers win and drag price outside of the yellow rectangle (it's the same rectangle I have also drawn on the weekly chart). If so, the next target is the upper red trend line. By the time price gets there, the trend line will cross 1000 ISK BRN and we'll have a so called confluence. Confluences are powerful situations where multiple factors align up, boosting their effects each other. If buyers win and price gets to 1000, that level will be a good place to either push price sky high or to powerfully repel it down. Above the rectangle it's advisable to buy, as long as price puts a bullish price action pattern on top of it, Please read my EvE-RL finance thread to learn a lot more about these concepts.
- Scenario 2: sellers win and drag price below the yellow rectangle. It's a DANGEROUS area, because price will be stuck between the rectangle bottom (aka RM "support") and the lower red trend line. This will cause a battle where you SHALL risk losing ISK if you'll buy in there.
- Scenario 3: sellers win and drag price back to the lower trend line. If and only if price will put a bullish price action pattern then you may buy and have a decent hope it'll go back up again. Just take attention when it goes back to the yellow rectangle because meeting its bottom will create a resistance effect that will try push price back down. So you have to employ money management in there. More about money management is in my finance thread.
If sellers drag price below the lower trend line and put a bearish price action pattern, then it's going to be a painful day. The day of panic dumping. That trend line is way too strong to not cause mayhem when broken. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Quinn Cooke
The Scope Gallente Federation
1
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Posted - 2013.11.16 20:43:00 -
[15] - Quote
"Isotopes stopped being a trade at 680 and begun being a gamble from that level upwards." VV circa 2012 Market Forums.
I didn't get in on the ground floor here, but making some nice profits hauling. Buy low/Sell high in other regions. Still have a feeling it will inch upwards towards the mythical 1000. If anything, its fun to watch and see who wins this war of rectangles. |
Silver Ott
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
4
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Posted - 2013.11.16 21:55:00 -
[16] - Quote
thanks alot VV
now how about hydrogen isotopes? :D |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4673
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Posted - 2013.11.16 22:02:00 -
[17] - Quote
Quinn Cooke wrote:"Isotopes stopped being a trade at 680 and begun being a gamble from that level upwards." VV circa 2012 Market Forums. I didn't get in on the ground floor here, but making some nice profits hauling. Buy low/Sell high in other regions. Still have a feeling it will inch upwards towards the mythical 1000. If anything, its fun to watch and see who wins this war of rectangles.
True that, but markets evolve and we have to evolve with them.
Markets are made by men, markets are men.
Once a market breaks a new horizon, it is already raising the bar to a new, bold target!
Said in more technical words, swings mark the price breathing room, if it manages to create an higher swing, that swing SHALL be forever recorded and will be visited later again. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4673
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Posted - 2013.11.17 12:12:00 -
[18] - Quote
Silver Ott wrote:thanks alot VV
now how about hydrogen isotopes? :D
I don't have records of those. If you want I can analyze it but the results will be far from satisfactory. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
5
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Posted - 2013.11.17 14:48:00 -
[19] - Quote
Why do you think that this kind of analysis is applicable in a world where a patch can change everything.
It seems to me that anything that you get from such charts cannot be predictive in the world of eve. I understand that people use them IRL, and I am skeptical about them IRL also, however, I accept that IRL there may be someone really smart who can predict the unpredictable and the charts can be leading indicators of future price.
In Eve markets you have huge jumps not before but after the news release. If patches were predictable or patch info was leaked before general release you would not see such huge jumps once patch notes were released. The jumps are not even necessarily indicative of change in value of anything because of existence of free stockpiles of everything. To me it seems that people are selling the news hence the initial spike, then stockpiles get depleted and the new true value gets discovered some time afterwards. How long it takes depends on the size of stockpiles and on demand. Maybe if it cost money to store stockpiles just like IRL then things would be different.
Why do you think that charts have predictive value in eve?
Would not it be profitable to figure out in which market you operate and then set you up with a chart knowing fully well how you are going to interpret it? How do you know that you are not being set up? |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4678
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Posted - 2013.11.17 17:34:00 -
[20] - Quote
Rthor wrote:Why do you think that this kind of analysis is applicable in a world where a patch can change everything.
Because it's made to be applicable in a RL world where a central bank statement, a speculation, a political decision can change everything in far more devastating ways than an EvE patch does.
Actually, patches come every 6 months, deep markets changing RL events happen once a month if not more often.
Rthor wrote: It seems to me that anything that you get from such charts cannot be predictive in the world of eve. I understand that people use them IRL, and I am skeptical about them IRL also, however, I accept that IRL there may be someone really smart who can predict the unpredictable and the charts can be leading indicators of future price.
They are not predictive at all. That's why they work. Nobody knows the future. Charts are not leading indicators either. They are snapshots. The method applied to analyze them, instead, is called "trend following". Following as in "delayed". Which is totally the opposite of "predicting the future" or "leading indicator".
Rthor wrote: In Eve markets you have huge jumps not before but after the news release.
This depends on whether there are news leaks or not. Same as goes in RL.
Rthor wrote:To me it seems that people are selling the news hence the initial spike, then stockpiles get depleted and the new true value gets discovered some time afterwards. How long it takes depends on the size of stockpiles and on demand. Maybe if it cost money to store stockpiles just like IRL then things would be different.
In RL we assist to the same behaviors and this despite storing stockpiles has a cost. Quick examples: moltitude of oil tankers full and parked around during oil speculations: they are highly paid but still... they are there.
Rthor wrote: Why do you think that charts have predictive value in eve?
They don't. Neither in EvE or RL.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4686
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Posted - 2013.11.17 18:05:00 -
[21] - Quote
Rthor wrote: Would not it be profitable to figure out in which market you operate and then set you up with a chart knowing fully well how you are going to interpret it? How do you know that you are not being set up?
My English fails at understanding this sentence.
Anyway, considering I deal in the top liquid EvE markets you can't realistically expect neither for me to be able and manipulate those markets all by myself nor for somebody else to "steal" my ideas and manipulate those markets against me.
If I feared anything from publishing these charts, I would just not post them.
Let me explain everything in depth.
DUDE HOW DOES THIS VOODOO THING WORK AND WHY?
It works on the premise that something in motion has a momentum and inertia. That is time and effort are required to reverse or change direction.
There are thousands of practical implementations of this mechanic. Every bicycle and gyroscope stays in equilibrium thanks to this. Every flywheel exists to implement this. Even in MMORPGs, there exists something improperly called "prediction code" that basing on the past 1-2 seconds of player's motion, will guesstimate that the player will probably keep going that direction for a bit longer. This is why in some games when somebody disconnects you see them keeping running in circles or straigth ahead, even if they are not even in game any more. This is part of the network code of most MMOs.
How does all of this maps into markets?
Simple. Price reaction is rarely instant. Price runs across with a set direction called trend. That trend has a momentum and inertia, based on the collective inertia, inefficiency and opposing objectives of the market participants.
Example: imagine a perfectly flat market. I buy 200B worth of stuff. The market does not just "hop up" or something. Price won't draw a sharp rectangle. It will create a series of delayed oscillations, a dampened ripple effect. A small trader might have tools to let him detect this change, to buy along with me and then sell before the counter-oscillation is over.
Therefore:
- Charts show what price is doing and there's really little anyone can do to hide it (in RL there's shadow liquidity and iceberg orders but not in EvE).
- Charts show many things that have been thoroughly studied over the decades.
- In particular, price borrows behaviors of greed and fear created by the very market participants. Those behaviors lead to having a lot of overshooting in where price should go VS where price actually goes. It takes time for a market to stabilize after a change in demand and supply as well.
- "Connecting the dots" on a chart reveals the current trend. It's not just "chartology". Look at somebody absolutely opposite to charts like Mynna: he buys and sells... but he does not it in the void. He too has PAST reference points: both price references and behavioral references (patch notes say this => prices will rise for that).
- Once established the trend (AKA trend following method) and NOT by scrying the future, a trader may "bet" that price will keep going in the same direction for a little while longer. "The trend is your friend" is the #1 trader rule.
- All the tecniques I add past that, are just a sum of street tricks learned by a moltitude of people to min max the benefits of having entered the market. In particular, a lot of human behavior patterns have been learned about how markets (over)react close to when the trend is over. This helps closing positions with a profit before a crash.
Basically, there's no voodoo, no prediction, it's all an educated bet that something going a direction will keep going the same direction. The rest is a vast number of street smarts to maximize the benefits of riding a trend.
The thing gets more complicated when talking about range markets but the base principle is always one: go the beaten path, let OTHERS risk before you and then ride their trend and finally take profit.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Felicity Love
Nighthawk Exploration
996
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Posted - 2013.11.18 02:47:00 -
[22] - Quote
Silver Ott wrote:can anyone in the know tell me how mining ice compares to reg ore in high sec (isk/hour wise)
and where do you guys see the price being in 3/6/12 months from now
A) depends on your skills, including ship skills, and
B) up/up/up again. That new POS revamp is going to arrive someday, and all the cool kids will want one... so start stocking up now.
Proud Beta Tester for "Bumping Uglies for Dummies" |
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
5
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Posted - 2013.11.18 17:04:00 -
[23] - Quote
But if you say to follow a trend and at the same time you say that charts do not predict future I find these statements possibly contradictory.
If a trend you get from the charts is up or down then chart reading has predictive value. Do you disagree with this statement?
Or are you saying that the charts are not predictive precisely because the trend is oscillations, i.e. the charts show that there is no trend, just noise? |
Kate stark
883
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Posted - 2013.11.18 19:19:00 -
[24] - Quote
Rthor wrote:But if you say to follow a trend and at the same time you say that charts do not predict future I find these statements possibly contradictory.
If a trend you get from the charts is up or down then chart reading has predictive value. Do you disagree with this statement?
Or are you saying that the charts are not predictive precisely because the trend is oscillations, i.e. the charts show that there is no trend, just noise?
past data being extrapolated upon does have predictive value; however any predictive value is lost by the 6 month development cycle throwing a spanner in the works every 6 months invalidating all of the previous data, or having the potential to do so.
assuming the game didn't have major changes every 6 months then past data would be far more useful. Yay, this account hasn't had its signature banned. or its account, if you're reading this. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4696
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Posted - 2013.11.18 21:59:00 -
[25] - Quote
Rthor wrote:But if you say to follow a trend and at the same time you say that charts do not predict future I find these statements possibly contradictory.
If a trend you get from the charts is up or down then chart reading has predictive value. Do you disagree with this statement?
Or are you saying that the charts are not predictive precisely because the trend is oscillations, i.e. the charts show that there is no trend, just noise?
I don't "get" a trend. I see price is rising, it trends all by itself. Considering the explanation I have written earlier, basically:
- I see a trend rising. In example, look at the diagonal trend line that supports the whole nitrogen isotopes market.
- Centuries of studies show that statistically trends don't change immediately, but keep going for a while.
- There are additional tools (also based on statistics) thta help optimizing where exactly to enter in the market and where to leave.
Therefore, nobody can say a chart has a predictive value, it's not magic or something. It's just use of statistics, exactly like statistics are used so much for many aspects of life.
Nobody cries scandal or "voodoo" if technicians use Monte Carlo simulations, regression tests to check how much materials generally resist to forces and so on. The principles used are the same.
About "no trend, just noise": no, price moves by means of swings. Swings some times are sinusoidal, other times they are not, but in the end are a foundation of price. The noise is a relatively small random offset added or subtracted to price, it only affects small time frames. Since I show daily charts and put a lot of importance on weekly+ bars, noise is adequately taken care of, as it becomes an o(signal). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4696
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Posted - 2013.11.18 22:10:00 -
[26] - Quote
Kate stark wrote: past data being extrapolated upon does have predictive value; however any predictive value is lost by the 6 month development cycle throwing a spanner in the works every 6 months invalidating all of the previous data, or having the potential to do so.
assuming the game didn't have major changes every 6 months then past data would be far more useful.
No, there's no predictive value being lost to 6 months cycles, exactly like there's no predictive lost in RL securities every month after unemployment rates are announced (or any of the sweeping powerful markets news).
Check my charts posted in the last 3 days and see how we have the SAME trend PRECISELY touching the same trend line since 2011. Check the chart that shows a price peak in 2011 being exactly matched in 2013.
In fact, 6 months events indeed affect price but if for any reason price in the next weeks / years returns back to past support / resistance / big round number levels, then it reacts to them.
A classic example is Nocxium. It had a totally hard cap given by reprocessing Amarr books. Once CCP changed those books to not reprocess into Nocxium any more, Nocxium went its way... and when it returned back (quite later) to that price, it faithfully snapped to it.
Why does this "market memory" happen?
For two reasons.
1) Because there are physical factors at play: inter-related markets that cause a price to ceil because an item suddenly becomes worth reprocessing past a thresold. Example: the Amarr book vs Nocxium above. There are a lot of markets inter-relations, both me and Samroski posted about that in the past.
2) Market participants are human. They WILL put orders at easy to type and recall numbers.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
5
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Posted - 2013.11.19 01:31:00 -
[27] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Rthor wrote:But if you say to follow a trend and at the same time you say that charts do not predict future I find these statements possibly contradictory.
If a trend you get from the charts is up or down then chart reading has predictive value. Do you disagree with this statement?
Or are you saying that the charts are not predictive precisely because the trend is oscillations, i.e. the charts show that there is no trend, just noise? I don't "get" a trend. I see price is rising, it trends all by itself. Considering the explanation I have written earlier, basically: - I see a trend rising. In example, look at the diagonal trend line that supports the whole nitrogen isotopes market. - Centuries of studies show that statistically trends don't change immediately, but keep going for a while. - There are additional tools (also based on statistics) thta help optimizing where exactly to enter in the market and where to leave. Therefore, nobody can say a chart has a predictive value, it's not magic or something. It's just use of statistics, exactly like statistics are used so much for many aspects of life. Nobody cries scandal or "voodoo" if technicians use Monte Carlo simulations, regression tests to check how much materials generally resist to forces and so on. The principles used are the same. About "no trend, just noise": no, price moves by means of swings. Swings some times are sinusoidal, other times they are not, but in the end are a foundation of price. The noise is a relatively small random offset added or subtracted to price, it only affects small time frames. Since I show daily charts and put a lot of importance on weekly+ bars, noise is adequately taken care of, as it becomes an o(signal).
I do not think that you have centuries of data supporting your reading of charts. But let's assume that you do. Even if direction of a trend does not change on the spot if you go with a trend your winnings over time may not offset your losses over time if the trend reverses. Sometimes trends reverse, I think that you would agree with this, and if you are on the wrong side of a trend reversal your losses will be huge precisely because you are so sure that you had risk under control.
Getting the direction of the trend right may not be sufficient to be right over a long run. Imagine that if you are right you are making peanuts, but the one time when you are wrong you get taken to the cleaners, and that wipes out all your gains till that moment. So you can be right for a long while but then you can lose it all. What do you say to that possibility? |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4696
|
Posted - 2013.11.19 02:58:00 -
[28] - Quote
Rthor wrote: I do not think that you have centuries of data supporting your reading of charts.
"My" reading of charts is not "mine". It's like saying the GNU Gimp installed on my computer is My Gimp. Hardly the case, I am using stuff created and tested by others well before me. People really study trends since centuries.
Just to tell you how people attentively looked at trends and even tried to "predict" the future, read Futures' origin in this Wikipedia article. We are talking about something advanced (derivatives), advanced enough that it's impossible trading them in EvE because even MDers don't really understand them. And it comes from a rice exchange founded in the 1700s. Futures are all about... future and are heavily based on variations of an underlying other security.
If you want to look even farter behind, check this out:
Quote: One of the earliest written records of futures trading is in Aristotle's Politics. He tells the story of Thales, a poor philosopher from Miletus who developed a "financial device, which involves a principle of universal application". Thales used his skill in forecasting and predicted that the olive harvest would be exceptionally good the next autumn. Confident in his prediction, he made agreements with local olive-press owners to deposit his money with them to guarantee him exclusive use of their olive presses when the harvest was ready. Thales successfully negotiated low prices because the harvest was in the future and no one knew whether the harvest would be plentiful or pathetic and because the olive-press owners were willing to hedge against the possibility of a poor yield. When the harvest-time came, and a sharp increase in demand for the use of the olive presses outstripped supply, he sold his future use contracts of the olive presses at a rate of his choosing, and made a large quantity of money
This guy of Aristotile's age just invented a notion that by issuing yearly forwards (futures ancestors), prices would follow a "saw tooth" shape where he could buy low and later sell high. Saw tooth shape is a typical trend.
From this article about trends:
Quote: The precise origin of the phrases "bull market" and "bear market" are obscure. The Oxford English Dictionary cites an 1891 use of the term "bull market". In French "bulle sp+¬culative" refers to a speculative market bubble. The Online Etymology Dictionary relates the word "bull" to "inflate, swell", and dates its stock market connotation to 1714
1714 sounds like "centuries" to me.
Rthor wrote: But let's assume that you do. Even if direction of a trend does not change on the spot if you go with a trend your winnings over time may not offset your losses over time if the trend reverses. Sometimes trends reverse, I think that you would agree with this, and if you are on the wrong side of a trend reversal your losses will be huge precisely because you are so sure that you had risk under control.
Getting the direction of the trend right may not be sufficient to be right over a long run. Imagine that if you are right you are making peanuts, but the one time when you are wrong you get taken to the cleaners, and that wipes out all your gains till that moment. So you can be right for a long while but then you can lose it all. What do you say to that possibility?
In order for your situation to become true, the trader has to be oblivious about how markets work. It indeed happens a lot in RL, that's consequence of the many "get rich quick in 10 minutes" thousands of scams sold on the internet via pervasive ads.
if you read my analyses, they come with "Monthly chart (WPD)" => "Weekly chart (WPD)" => "Daily chart (WPG)".
WPD = What Price is Doing, which basically is about finding the trend.
Trades always happen in the lowest time frame available (daily, EvE markets for now yield daily prices history), while the analysis is done firstly at the monthly level and then weekly. All the 3 time frames trend MUST concord else no trade happens.
Now, you see how having a very slow changing (maximum inertia) monthly trend gives an heavy hint about a lasting trend. Entering at the daily time frame takes advantage of this notion, while also providing for the needed nimbleness to get in and out basing on price action patterns (which are micro-trends in themselves, markets are fractal). Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
5
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Posted - 2013.11.19 03:14:00 -
[29] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Rthor wrote: I do not think that you have centuries of data supporting your reading of charts.
"My" reading of charts is not "mine". It's like saying the GNU Gimp installed on my computer is My Gimp. Hardly the case, I am using stuff created and tested by others well before me. People really study trends since centuries. Just to tell you how people attentively looked at trends and even tried to "predict" the future, read Futures' origin in this Wikipedia article. We are talking about something advanced (derivatives), advanced enough that it's impossible trading them in EvE because even MDers don't really understand them. And it comes from a rice exchange founded in the 1700s. Futures are all about... future and are heavily based on variations of an underlying other security. If you want to look even farter behind, check this out: Quote: One of the earliest written records of futures trading is in Aristotle's Politics. He tells the story of Thales, a poor philosopher from Miletus who developed a "financial device, which involves a principle of universal application". Thales used his skill in forecasting and predicted that the olive harvest would be exceptionally good the next autumn. Confident in his prediction, he made agreements with local olive-press owners to deposit his money with them to guarantee him exclusive use of their olive presses when the harvest was ready. Thales successfully negotiated low prices because the harvest was in the future and no one knew whether the harvest would be plentiful or pathetic and because the olive-press owners were willing to hedge against the possibility of a poor yield. When the harvest-time came, and a sharp increase in demand for the use of the olive presses outstripped supply, he sold his future use contracts of the olive presses at a rate of his choosing, and made a large quantity of money
This guy of Aristotile's age just invented a notion that by issuing yearly forwards (futures ancestors), prices would follow a "saw tooth" shape where he could buy low and later sell high. Saw tooth shape is a typical trend. From this article about trends: Quote: The precise origin of the phrases "bull market" and "bear market" are obscure. The Oxford English Dictionary cites an 1891 use of the term "bull market". In French "bulle sp+¬culative" refers to a speculative market bubble. The Online Etymology Dictionary relates the word "bull" to "inflate, swell", and dates its stock market connotation to 1714
1714 sounds like "centuries" to me. Rthor wrote: But let's assume that you do. Even if direction of a trend does not change on the spot if you go with a trend your winnings over time may not offset your losses over time if the trend reverses. Sometimes trends reverse, I think that you would agree with this, and if you are on the wrong side of a trend reversal your losses will be huge precisely because you are so sure that you had risk under control.
Getting the direction of the trend right may not be sufficient to be right over a long run. Imagine that if you are right you are making peanuts, but the one time when you are wrong you get taken to the cleaners, and that wipes out all your gains till that moment. So you can be right for a long while but then you can lose it all. What do you say to that possibility?
In order for your situation to become true, the trader has to be oblivious about how markets work. It indeed happens a lot in RL, that's consequence of the many "get rich quick in 10 minutes" thousands of scams sold on the internet via pervasive ads. if you read my analyses, they come with "Monthly chart (WPD)" => "Weekly chart (WPD)" => "Daily chart (WPG)". WPD = What Price is Doing, which basically is about finding the trend. Trades always happen in the lowest time frame available (daily, EvE markets for now yield daily prices history), while the analysis is done firstly at the monthly level and then weekly. All the 3 time frames trend MUST concord else no trade happens. Now, you see how having a very slow changing (maximum inertia) monthly trend gives an heavy hint about a lasting trend. Entering at the daily time frame takes advantage of this notion, while also providing for the needed nimbleness to get in and out basing on price action patterns (which are micro-trends in themselves, markets are fractal).
I am actually trying to learn from somebody who seems to like technical analysis, and again I say that you do not have centuries of data backing you up. You have quoted something entirely different which is the development of futures market idea. I mean yeah, this idea of futures market developed over centuries but what does that have to do with anything we are discussing?
I sent you an idea for a book to read. It is by Taleb and the title is "Fooled by Randomness." I only wrote this sentence because I can do quotations, too, so that you know. You should read this book by the way. It will help you IRL, regardless of what happens in Eve.
I do not think that you answered my question. The trend is easy to spot. But the question is how much do you bet on a trend that you spot to be safe from getting wiped out?
I mean let's say that I spot a trend in nitrogen isotopes. Your advice is to buy. I invest everything that I have to invest in nitropes. Is my isk safe? |
Quinn Cooke
The Scope Gallente Federation
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Posted - 2013.11.19 04:40:00 -
[30] - Quote
Rthor wrote: I do not think that you answered my question. The trend is easy to spot. But the question is how much do you bet on a trend that you spot to be safe from getting wiped out?
I mean let's say that I spot a trend in nitrogen isotopes. Your advice is to buy. I invest everything that I have to invest in nitropes. Is my isk safe?
Wouldn't you only invest in what you could afford to lose? Similar to flying ships in EvE? |
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