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Jori McKie
Friends Of Harassment
74
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Posted - 2013.06.10 19:17:00 -
[1] - Quote
Reference: http://themittani.com/features/speculating-odyssey-changes
Moongoo not my thing, so no comment on that.
Ice and Minerals, i think it will depend on the price Ice will reach or not and the behaviour of the highsec miners. If Ice prices will go up beyond lets say 1k p/u, the ISK/h will get ridiculous for such an easy task in other words if Ice mining exceeds lets say 20m-30m ISK/h (per char) i estimate a lot of guys will stop doing L4 missions. We may will see a coordinated effort in highsec (big mining corps a go?) to rip the Ice belts empty and maybe even a timetable for respawn timers in every ice system. On the other hand coordination may be to much effort? Anyway at the end it boils down to ISK/h and if any mining exceeds average L4 mission or Anos in 0.0 income we will see a goldrush on mining be it in high or 0.0.
Now what do you think? |
Q 5
Royal Amarr Institute Amarr Empire
39
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Posted - 2013.06.10 19:22:00 -
[2] - Quote
The rarer the item, a high demand = even pvp pilots will want in on the white gold rush....or blue, not to mention those nefarious Goonies. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4177
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Posted - 2013.06.10 21:18:00 -
[3] - Quote
There's not a lot to discuss about that blog.
I'd have to discuss about this other:
Quote: Highsec ice miners have nothing to whine about. Their harvesters are getting a 50% duration buff, and with fuel prices going through the roof, they can expect their per hour income to at least double, if not triple or quadruple by the summer expansion
1) Prices don't seem really rising *that* high ATM, eh?
2) Income per hour counts little when you can't make an "income per hour". Getting a *slim* chance to arrive before there are 3 roids left (and 40 ships off 2 multiboxers) does not make an income per hour. You are not going to get rich with those 10 cubes every 4 hours you manage to sgnatch off the multiboxers.
3) Basically it's another incentive to null sec, where a pathetically BAD and WoW alike canned progression model desperately attempts to push the players to. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
277
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Posted - 2013.06.10 21:27:00 -
[4] - Quote
VV, do not try and tell me there are 40 ships off of 2 multiboxers in every single ice anom in highsec, cos you know I will fly round and check |
Sabre Rolf
Republic University Minmatar Republic
34
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Posted - 2013.06.10 22:07:00 -
[5] - Quote
Mynnna says what's good for Mynnna, nuff said |
Thorleifer
Yeti Cave
9
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Posted - 2013.06.10 23:04:00 -
[6] - Quote
Well with the changes to raising sec status i don't see why we don't have more gankageddon type events. That would be one way to cure the ice mining bots. |
Kor'el Izia
63
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Posted - 2013.06.10 23:26:00 -
[7] - Quote
I'll just echo "the good doctor" Dr Eyjo from his fanfest presentation: "There are interesting times ahead" |
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat Working Stiffs
1916
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Posted - 2013.06.11 00:06:00 -
[8] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:There's not a lot to discuss about that blog. I agree. There was nothing particularly insightful, or that hasn't been mentioned elsewhere for months.
I don't think the market-aware crowd was the intended audience. |
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
1110
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Posted - 2013.06.11 01:30:00 -
[9] - Quote
Only thing that could really affect mineral prices now is if null miners actually proliferate. Dunno how that is going especially with the new moon goo wars that are proliferating.
I have only once out of ~10 times visiting 3 different ice systems & actually saw an ice anomaly there post expansion. It getting mined so quick now I doubt anyone could make a profit unless they live by 4 hour timers An' then [email protected], he come scramblin outta theTerminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system'scrashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children' |
Adunh Slavy
940
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Posted - 2013.06.11 02:05:00 -
[10] - Quote
Sabre Rolf wrote:Mynnna says what's good for Mynnna, nuff said
There is nothing in that piece that goes against the general consensus. |
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Kara Books
Deal with IT.
648
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Posted - 2013.06.11 02:06:00 -
[11] - Quote
He knows the market, but im not seeing anything great happening, high hopes or lower expectations. |
Grozen
Titan Core
11
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Posted - 2013.06.11 06:26:00 -
[12] - Quote
This has guidance systems written all over it.I'm sure people remember how that goon venture went.Nobody denies that ice will rise someday....But with these stockpiles and the fact that ice is entering the market faster than before It wil take 7-8months before we even begin to see a rise unless there is huge ice ganking going which will take alot of resources and manpower which I'm sure they cannot spare anytime soon with the test prob they have on their hands and since smart people avoid ice now they turn to ores which go down cuz more people start mining ores again. knowledge is power. |
Sabre Rolf
Republic University Minmatar Republic
36
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Posted - 2013.06.11 07:34:00 -
[13] - Quote
Grozen wrote:Nobody denies that ice will rise someday....
The way you and Mynnna say that, almost sounds as if there is only the product "ice". Sure if you wana see it that way, it-¦s easy to think that ICE must go up because they removed good bunch of it.
But so far people could just pick the best pieces (mostly Dark glitter) of it, and ignore the crap WICH now has be mined to make the belt respawn. So there is a lot of "ice" (mostly racial fuel stuff) in 0.0 that is now getting mined, wich hasnt before. Saying ICE is going up across the board is horrible inacuarate if not wrong.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4178
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Posted - 2013.06.11 10:29:00 -
[14] - Quote
Rhivre wrote:VV, do not try and tell me there are 40 ships off of 2 multiboxers in every single ice anom in highsec, cos you know I will fly round and check
There's 1 relevant ice and you can easily come check yourself every day at about the 2nd -3rd spawn and you find this:
Screenshot 1 Screenshot 2
What's annoying is that big multiboxers used to "just screw the market price". Now, instead, you either become one of them and basically interdict the ore spawn or you grab 1 ore hold worth of stuff and then it's gone.
Bumping... well James 315 is as active on MD to grab money as inactive in game where he'd be needed. Smartbombing: the multiboxer retrievers are basically free or even insured, so... /care.
In most games, when people have to "reroll XYZ or lose" it's usually a sign of imbalance and gets nerfed.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Andres Talas
Brave Newbies Inc. Brave Collective
114
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Posted - 2013.06.11 12:05:00 -
[15] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
There's 1 relevant ice and you can easily come check yourself every day at about the 2nd -3rd spawn and you find this:
Id be keeping a careful eye on ice in Provi - and if the others get expensive enough, then Im sure people can deal with Amarr POS. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1268
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Posted - 2013.06.11 12:55:00 -
[16] - Quote
Sabre Rolf wrote:Mynnna says what's good for Mynnna, nuff said
If my piece is market manipulation, then in 3-12 months I am going to declare myself the most successful market manipulator of all time. Of. All. Time.
Grozen wrote:This has guidance systems written all over it.I'm sure people remember how that goon venture went.
You mean the things goons bought when they were 420 isk/unit? Not sure how that isn't an unqualified success.
Grozen wrote:and the fact that ice is entering the market faster than before
[Citation needed]
Grozen wrote:It wil take 7-8months before we even begin to see a rise
A long timeframe is something anyone reasonable expects. All they have to do is think back to how long it took for the really big waves to happen in the original ice interdiction. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
GreenSeed
446
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Posted - 2013.06.11 14:05:00 -
[17] - Quote
no, its not about ISK/h. ice mining could be 4billon isk/h and you could have every single highsec player doing it and it would do nothing to increase supply. lets assume every high sec belt gets mined in the exact moment it spawns, triggering the 4hr cooldown immediately. that averages to 625 ice cubes per hour, per belt.
considering that before this changes you had at least 80 - 90 macks per belt, mining 24/7, you were looking at 5,600 ice cubes per hour per belt.
quite the drop in supply.
but in reality its even less than that, 20 macks under perfect boost mine the anom in 50 minutes or so... making the 4hr into 5hrs... and we go from 625 cubes down to 500. that's even before we consider the naturally occurring cartel due to 70% of the cubes going to the same person, when before all miners needed to enter the market was a barge, a stopwatch, and a book to read.
unlike most other production/extraction method in game the supply is not limited by the interest on players to partake in it, its limited by the game mechanics. this is why so many people were against it, but they were accused of being "AFK miners" and shunned... so now we have a crucial commodity with an artificial supply. yay
this point alone is enough to see that 700isk per isotope is a joke, isotopes wont stop climbing in price until CCP admits this was a poorly thought through mess of an idea. hell, even having it at 700isk should be an indication... that's around 32m "isk/h" and most ice systems are packed with a horde of... merely 30 - 40 miners.
if ice is still hovering around 700isk that's because there's a lot of stock in the hands of inexperienced traders who will dump it instead of waiting for the extracted volume to set the price.
and forget about null exporting until they remove that awful 4hr CD. i could go on for a full post about the dreadfulness of a nomad null mining op, not to mention miners piloting JFs...
a good "fix" would be to set null ice to be exactly the way it was before (maybe spread the belts around a bit), and just remove all highsec ice. i have no clue why wasn't THIS the way they addressed this problem, assuming it was a problem.
there's also the problem mentioned by VV of corp fleets and boxing fleets, they act as a sort of natural cartel. they don't care about market prices, they care about plexing the accounts. once they do for the month, they don't stop mining but they do stop selling ice. that is already strangulating extraction even more.
so yeah... its still not too late to buy ice. |
Grozen
Titan Core
11
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Posted - 2013.06.11 15:38:00 -
[18] - Quote
mynnna wrote:Sabre Rolf wrote:Mynnna says what's good for Mynnna, nuff said If my piece is market manipulation, then in 3-12 months I am going to declare myself the most successful market manipulator of all time. Of. All. Time. Grozen wrote:This has guidance systems written all over it.I'm sure people remember how that goon venture went. You mean the things goons bought when they were 420 isk/unit? Not sure how that isn't an unqualified success. Grozen wrote:and the fact that ice is entering the market faster than before [Citation needed] Grozen wrote:It wil take 7-8months before we even begin to see a rise A long timeframe is something anyone reasonable expects. All they have to do is think back to how long it took for the really big waves to happen in the original ice interdiction.
Its too hard to dig all the old posts,Long story short yes hundreds of goons did make large profits with gs but I'm quite sure some missed the best boat because when they were at their lowest not everyone bought it.Some entered at different lvls.
Anyway I'm sure you have enough ice stock to crash the whole jita market atm:D
But for the long term speculation 8months is my positive speculation prediction, we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that?There will be massive panic sell which will further delay the inevitable rise in the long distant future 1year+....I think new ice intervention is inevitable for the sake of the everyone who holds ice stock and I for one would welcome it because as it is ice will become a big pile of goo if nothing is done.
knowledge is power. |
Dave Stark
3160
|
Posted - 2013.06.11 15:44:00 -
[19] - Quote
Grozen wrote:we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that?
i think you've got more chance of me being the first man on mars than we do of seeing ice hit 100k/unit again. |
Grozen
Titan Core
11
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Posted - 2013.06.11 15:47:00 -
[20] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Grozen wrote:we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that? i think you've got more chance of me being the first man on mars than we do of seeing ice hit 100k/unit again.
Its a wild assumption I agree but its mainly based on the 20d average and 5d average graph ice prices which are both going down.Until I see 20d move up nothing can persuade me that ice is going anywhere but down.In some regions buy orders have already droped to 143k p/u. and sell are close to jita buy orders.Oh and I just checked the volume of ice entering jita market.Love it when people make assumptions without numbers.You can clearly see that the ice volume matches that of pre-patch, there's absolutely no shortage of ice. knowledge is power. |
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Dave Stark
3161
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Posted - 2013.06.11 16:00:00 -
[21] - Quote
Grozen wrote:Dave Stark wrote:Grozen wrote:we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that? i think you've got more chance of me being the first man on mars than we do of seeing ice hit 100k/unit again. Its a wild assumption I agree but its mainly based on the 20d average and 5d average graph ice prices which are both going down.Until I see 20d move up nothing can persuade me that ice is going anywhere but down.In some regions buy orders have already droped to 143k p/u. and sell are close to jita buy orders.Oh and I just checked the volume of ice entering jita market.Love it when people make assumptions without numbers.You can clearly see that the ice volume matches that of pre-patch, there's absolutely no shortage of ice.
there's no shortage because people like me were mining ice for about a month solid before odyssey and holding on to it because ice has nowhere to go but up. i know i was. |
Grozen
Titan Core
11
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Posted - 2013.06.11 16:05:00 -
[22] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Grozen wrote:Dave Stark wrote:Grozen wrote:we need to take into account the fact that many people entered the ice speculation at 100k p/u and what happens if ice stuff goes down below that? i think you've got more chance of me being the first man on mars than we do of seeing ice hit 100k/unit again. Its a wild assumption I agree but its mainly based on the 20d average and 5d average graph ice prices which are both going down.Until I see 20d move up nothing can persuade me that ice is going anywhere but down.In some regions buy orders have already droped to 143k p/u. and sell are close to jita buy orders.Oh and I just checked the volume of ice entering jita market.Love it when people make assumptions without numbers.You can clearly see that the ice volume matches that of pre-patch, there's absolutely no shortage of ice. there's no shortage because people like me were mining ice for about a month solid before odyssey and holding on to it because ice has nowhere to go but up. i know i was. I hope you're right I too have stuff at stake here but I guess we'll just have to wait more.Once a full month has passed we can make more accurate predictions right now its too much crystal ball:D knowledge is power. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
1269
|
Posted - 2013.06.11 16:13:00 -
[23] - Quote
Grozen wrote:Anyway I'm sure you have enough ice stock to crash the whole jita market atm:D
I have 200b isk (at the original price) worth of isotopes and ozone. So, my personal holding really is a drop in the bucket. Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
279
|
Posted - 2013.06.11 16:20:00 -
[24] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Rhivre wrote:VV, do not try and tell me there are 40 ships off of 2 multiboxers in every single ice anom in highsec, cos you know I will fly round and check There's 1 relevant ice and you can easily come check yourself every day at about the 2nd -3rd spawn and you find this: Screenshot 1Screenshot 2What's annoying is that big multiboxers used to "just screw the market price". Now, instead, you either become one of them and basically interdict the ore spawn or you grab 1 ore hold worth of stuff and then it's gone. Bumping... well James 315 is as active on MD to grab money as inactive in game where he'd be needed. Smartbombing: the multiboxer retrievers are basically free or even insured, so... /care. In most games, when people have to "reroll XYZ or lose" it's usually a sign of imbalance and gets nerfed.
VV, handily I did go check myself.
During EU prime time no less
Now, this is a little more helpful maybe.
Rhivre is bad at counting
Now, yes this is just a snapshot.
However, there NEEDS to be 21 macks running at full skills with orca boost to ensure supply of "The only ice that matters" (Although, the numbers traded through Jita say at least one other is also relevant....but more on that later.
You say all caldari Ice is borked. The first system I went to, 3 jumps from Jita had 22 in local, and 11 miners + orcas. |
EvilweaselSA
GoonCorp Goonswarm Federation
865
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Posted - 2013.06.11 17:38:00 -
[25] - Quote
vv? lying about the merits of the ice changes?
no sir, you cannot be correct. i do not believe it. |
Marsan
Caldari Provisions
117
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Posted - 2013.06.11 20:45:00 -
[26] - Quote
It seems to me that the HS ice fields will in a month or 2 only be mined by 2 groups. - Multi-region miners using a combination of alts and jump clones with some sort of intelligence channel to update them on where Ice has respawned. With one account you could easily cover 6 systems in a day without counting the nearby systems within a handful of jumps away. - Opportunistic miners who mine Ice when it's available, and Veld when it's not.
As far as Ice pricing I suspect given the insane numbers of Ice miners in the belts over the last couple months combined with the amount of Ice stock piled by both miners and marketeers. The price of Ice going to be effected less by actual shortages than by market speculation. What is really going to effect the price 6 months from now is if Null Sec calms down. If NS calms down and the "Blue Donut" effect returns to the degree it existed pre=patch then mineral and Ice prices will fall. Ice won't likely return to "normal" levels but it will cost as much as veld does PER HOUR. (I'd calculate it, but I don't care enough and I suspect Veld will drop enough in price.) In such a situation low end mineral prices will drop as NS and WH miners mining High and Mid Ends will be produce a lot more low end when they refine.
PS- Of course this is why the Goons need to start preparing a new Ice, and Mining interdiction. Not High Sec this time, but a war on ice miners, and ore miners in NS. Based on my random roams in NS via wormholes simply showing up in local is enough to end all mining in a system. I can only imagine what would happen if I was with a group willing to bridge a mass of rifters or drakes on a group of miners. Or was running BLOPS roams or drops.... Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a hopeful small portion of the community. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4178
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Posted - 2013.06.11 21:23:00 -
[27] - Quote
EvilweaselSA wrote:vv? lying about the merits of the ice changes?
no sir, you cannot be correct. i do not believe it.
Oh, certainly, a system with no stations not showing fleets that require massive logistics and stations to reprocess? That's CLEARLY the norm! Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
281
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Posted - 2013.06.11 21:27:00 -
[28] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:vv? lying about the merits of the ice changes?
no sir, you cannot be correct. i do not believe it. Oh, certainly, a system with no stations not showing fleets that require massive logistics and stations to reprocess? That's CLEARLY the norm!
Depleted Anoms21 Active Anoms7 Active miners84
Want the screenshots from each system too?
I also have a breakdown of EVERY high sec anom with miners in it and an active anom....but please, continue
Final Edit: I also have the market history table, as do you, showing volumes of the "irrelevant" isotopes, which, seem to be strangely relevant. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4178
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Posted - 2013.06.11 21:49:00 -
[29] - Quote
Rhivre wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:EvilweaselSA wrote:vv? lying about the merits of the ice changes?
no sir, you cannot be correct. i do not believe it. Oh, certainly, a system with no stations not showing fleets that require massive logistics and stations to reprocess? That's CLEARLY the norm! Depleted Anoms21 Active Anoms7 Active miners84 Want the screenshots from each system too? I also have a breakdown of EVERY high sec anom with miners in it and an active anom....but please, continue Final Edit: I also have the market history table, as do you, showing volumes of the "irrelevant" isotopes, which, seem to be strangely relevant. "Massive logistics" 3 jumps from jita? Really?
Considering he has to move 2k blocks and he has the choice to push *the others* in that station-less system, then why should he bother going there? He can warp to in-system station or move the freighter across systems and the micromanagement interfere with his multiboxing. What shall he choose?
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Adunh Slavy
944
|
Posted - 2013.06.11 23:02:00 -
[30] - Quote
PANIC!! |
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