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Sek Des
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
1
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Posted - 2013.05.30 04:10:00 -
[1] - Quote
@ 11 minutes CCP stream from today
Just wanted to get a few thoughts the future of Ice. I am sure there are large stock piles . I brought it up in TS and I was surprised by the reaction. Some said it will drop like a rock others said it will skyrocket. I think it will go up then drop like most things post expansions. I hope to find the small window where it hits its peak. A |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4144
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Posted - 2013.05.30 08:29:00 -
[2] - Quote
Sek Des wrote:@ 11 minutes CCP stream from today Just wanted to get a few thoughts the future of Ice. I am sure there are large stock piles . I brought it up in TS and I was surprised by the reaction. Some said it will drop like a rock others said it will skyrocket. I think it will go up then drop like most things post expansions. I hope to find the small window where it hits its peak. Any thoughts ?
It depends on your time frame.
I have already cashed in a lot of money off ices but I still hold a stash of it.
The fights over the revamped moons will require ices mining, the reduced hi sec supply will require more expensive 0.0 ices mining, 0.0 best belts are relatively rare. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
204
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Posted - 2013.05.30 10:16:00 -
[3] - Quote
I think a lot of people are holding a lot of ice
As to where the price will go?
I think eventually it will settle at a higher point than now, but, it will be up and down all over the place for a while until it settles, as initially "OMG Ice Mining" will drop the price, then it will be better to mine something else, so the price will rise, so then people swap back...rinse and repeat.
At some point there will be a happy medium where enough ice is supplied to keep people happy, and the price is right for the miners.
Mynna wrote a post here Mynna Writes About Ice and Stuff
And I wrote a less smart one here: OMG ICE!
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4145
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Posted - 2013.05.30 10:48:00 -
[4] - Quote
Rhivre wrote:I think a lot of people are holding a lot of ice As to where the price will go? I think eventually it will settle at a higher point than now, but, it will be up and down all over the place for a while until it settles, as initially "OMG Ice Mining" will drop the price, then it will be better to mine something else, so the price will rise, so then people swap back...rinse and repeat. At some point there will be a happy medium where enough ice is supplied to keep people happy, and the price is right for the miners. Mynna wrote a post here Mynna Writes About Ice and StuffAnd I wrote a less smart one here: OMG ICE!
You know very well how I am unloading ice since weeks and I still have immense loads. I don't care if it'll dip for some months or 1 year, in the worst case I can use it to fuel my towers but you know there won't be a worst case. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
204
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Posted - 2013.05.30 10:49:00 -
[5] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:You know very well how I am unloading ice since weeks and I still have immense loads. I don't care if it'll dip for some months or 1 year, in the worst case I can use it to fuel my towers but you know there won't be a worst case.
I dont think it will dip for long...people bore of things they dont like doing :p
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Danni stark
428
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Posted - 2013.05.30 12:44:00 -
[6] - Quote
Rhivre wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:You know very well how I am unloading ice since weeks and I still have immense loads. I don't care if it'll dip for some months or 1 year, in the worst case I can use it to fuel my towers but you know there won't be a worst case. I dont think it will dip for long...people bore of things they dont like doing :p
ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored. Ice Mining Skill Plan. |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
204
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Posted - 2013.05.30 12:45:00 -
[7] - Quote
Danni stark wrote:
ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.
*some* ice belts wont be
And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice" |
El 1974
Green Visstick High Green Rhino
84
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Posted - 2013.05.30 12:59:00 -
[8] - Quote
I'm not going to comment on prices as I'm trying to make some isk trading it as well.
As things are anounced right now ice in nullsec will not be scarce enough to spark many conflicts. You cannot determine who gets the benefits of a single ice anomaly in a large fight as you can with tech moons. You need to mine the anomaly and to do so effectively you'll also want to control the area around that system to make it harder to disrupt mining. Having three systems with a single anomaly will also be harder to dirupt than a single system containing three anomalies. It's all about controlling as much space as you can and blue-ing up with the neighbours. There's nothing new about that.
What I fear however is that CCP in one of their next iterations or expansions will decide to make some changes. There will no longer be infinate belts to stock up on ice when that happens. |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
204
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Posted - 2013.05.30 13:12:00 -
[9] - Quote
I dont think ice will be sparking conflicts in null. The moons might be, although, it only takes 1 afk cloaker to put miners off mining, and with the increased need for ice from null to ensure current supply levels, that could be more annoying than it is currently. |
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
653
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Posted - 2013.05.30 13:45:00 -
[10] - Quote
Rhivre wrote:Danni stark wrote:
ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.
*some* ice belts wont be And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice"
Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks. |
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Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
204
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Posted - 2013.05.30 13:48:00 -
[11] - Quote
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:Rhivre wrote:Danni stark wrote:
ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.
*some* ice belts wont be And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice" Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks.
Oh, I dont think they will be popping in 5 minutes, I just dont think people will like not having ice available all the time.
I think Osmon etc will have some adjustments due to the sheer volume of miners there, and I know they are respawning every 4 hours, but, it could be frustrating to log in just before it depletes.
Of course, my advice in that situation would be "go to a quieter system", but, miners, like missioners are creatures of habit ^^ |
Daniel Plain
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1141
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Posted - 2013.05.30 14:18:00 -
[12] - Quote
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:Rhivre wrote:Danni stark wrote:
ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.
*some* ice belts wont be And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice" Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks. i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings" -MXZF |
Adunh Slavy
891
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Posted - 2013.05.30 14:38:00 -
[13] - Quote
Daniel Plain wrote: i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.
For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line. |
Daniel Plain
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1141
|
Posted - 2013.05.30 15:37:00 -
[14] - Quote
Adunh Slavy wrote:Daniel Plain wrote: i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.
For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line. if there is sufficient evolutionary pressure they just might learn to do so.
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings" -MXZF |
Pipernelli Spacemitt
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
2
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Posted - 2013.05.30 15:48:00 -
[15] - Quote
Daniel Plain wrote:Adunh Slavy wrote:Daniel Plain wrote: i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.
For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line. if there is sufficient evolutionary pressure they just might learn to do so.
I am prepared to wager the princely sum of 5000 interstellar kredits in opposition. |
Daniel Plain
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1141
|
Posted - 2013.05.30 15:57:00 -
[16] - Quote
Pipernelli Spacemitt wrote:Daniel Plain wrote:Adunh Slavy wrote:Daniel Plain wrote: i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.
For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line. if there is sufficient evolutionary pressure they just might learn to do so. I am prepared to wager the princely sum of 5000 interstellar kredits in opposition. i am inclined to take the bet, albeit we should describe the win conditions precisely and raise the bet to at least 5kkk to make it interesting...
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings" -MXZF |
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
1083
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Posted - 2013.05.31 02:25:00 -
[17] - Quote
Adunh Slavy wrote:Daniel Plain wrote: i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.
For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line.
We had these incursion cats doing that for about a year then it all fell apart lol An' then [email protected], he come scramblin outta theTerminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system'scrashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children' |
Vincent Athena
V.I.C.E. Aegis Solaris
1918
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Posted - 2013.05.31 03:45:00 -
[18] - Quote
What I foresee is "ice mining locust blobs". When a belt depletes what you do is move to another system. And then another. The way to keep ice mining is to do a little circuit, circling back to your first system in 4 hours, just in time to catch its new spawn. Now if you are an ice miner and log in, what do you do? The belt in your system will have been mined out by the locust blob, as have most all the other nearby systems. So whats your best way to find a fresh belt to mine?
Join the blob.
All you need to is go system to system until you find them and you know you found a ice belt. After that just follow them and you will have a steady ice supply. I think the ice mining locust blobs will be an emergent behavior. People will join the blob because it works, not because they all agreed to do it.
So as far as war is concerned, at least in high sec: The ice mining blob will be a mesh-mash of pilots from several corps, including NPC corps. What would you dec? http://vincentoneve.wordpress.com/ |
Grandma Squirel
Squirel Enterprises
0
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Posted - 2013.05.31 04:09:00 -
[19] - Quote
@Vincent Athena - Chasing the spawn is going to result in a lot of down time, and the guy who cheats and skips 5 anoms ahead and gets to mine in one place till you get to him wins.
@Daniel Plain - Incursions have a mechanic that force players to form at least fleets, if not full communities due to not wanting sucky players in your fleet. The incursion communities then provide the leadership to make a deal. Miners have no such communal pressure. The closest thing would be the orca booster alts, but there are just too many of them around and they are to easy to train. The incursion mechanics also provide many ways to grief people who don't play along, whereas the only thing you will be able to do to ice poachers is suicide gank em.
@Rhivre - Afk Cloakers only work when you are very risk averse. If Ice starts going up, you will reach points quickly where loosing a hulk or two to the the cyno bomber becomes a bargain to keep your 50+ man mining fleet humming. At even higher prices, the motivation to stage counter drops or otherwise retaliate against those who mess with your isk printing kicks in. Will it get that high? Hell if I know, but the higher it gets, the more likely emergent behavior is to emerge. How high does ice need to get before suicide ganking your competitors for the highsec ice becomes cost effective? |
Dave Stark
3024
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Posted - 2013.05.31 09:45:00 -
[20] - Quote
Daniel Plain wrote:Bugsy VanHalen wrote:Rhivre wrote:Danni stark wrote:
ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.
*some* ice belts wont be And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice" Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks. i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.
why would they do that? "hey guys, i want to earn less isk, care to join me?"
it's one of the basic problems with mining, it promotes being antisocial and not interacting with other players. you get more out of mining the less you have to do with other players, it's a pretty backwards profession for an MMO. |
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
4146
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Posted - 2013.05.31 11:04:00 -
[21] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote: it's one of the basic problems with mining, it promotes being antisocial and not interacting with other players. you get more out of mining the less you have to do with other players, it's a pretty backwards profession for an MMO.
Elements of competition in EvE? That sounds much MMO-ish and EvE-ish to me. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
Twitter channel |
Dave Stark
3039
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Posted - 2013.05.31 11:26:00 -
[22] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Dave Stark wrote: it's one of the basic problems with mining, it promotes being antisocial and not interacting with other players. you get more out of mining the less you have to do with other players, it's a pretty backwards profession for an MMO.
Elements of competition in EvE? That sounds much MMO-ish and EvE-ish to me.
uh, what competition? |
Andres Talas
Brave Newbies Inc. Brave Collective
110
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Posted - 2013.05.31 12:00:00 -
[23] - Quote
Grandma Squirel wrote:
@Rhivre - Afk Cloakers only work when you are very risk averse. If Ice starts going up, you will reach points quickly where loosing a hulk or two to the the cyno bomber becomes a bargain to keep your 50+ man mining fleet humming. At even higher prices, the motivation to stage counter drops or otherwise retaliate against those who mess with your isk printing kicks in. Will it get that high? Hell if I know, but the higher it gets, the more likely emergent behavior is to emerge. How high does ice need to get before suicide ganking your competitors for the highsec ice becomes cost effective?
Problem is, it wont be one cyno bomber.
It'll be a black ops cyno, followed by a full wing of bombers and others coming in thru it.
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Grandma Squirel
Squirel Enterprises
1
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Posted - 2013.05.31 13:18:00 -
[24] - Quote
Andres Talas wrote:Grandma Squirel wrote:
@Rhivre - Afk Cloakers only work when you are very risk averse. If Ice starts going up, you will reach points quickly where loosing a hulk or two to the the cyno bomber becomes a bargain to keep your 50+ man mining fleet humming. At even higher prices, the motivation to stage counter drops or otherwise retaliate against those who mess with your isk printing kicks in. Will it get that high? Hell if I know, but the higher it gets, the more likely emergent behavior is to emerge. How high does ice need to get before suicide ganking your competitors for the highsec ice becomes cost effective?
Problem is, it wont be one cyno bomber. It'll be a black ops cyno, followed by a full wing of bombers and others coming in thru it.
Given the delays involved in jumping/bridging in, any player paying attention will be able to safely warp out their hulk before the droppers load grid. (Many of the more serious droppers only use blops fyi, but the difference here is minimal) As a result, the only reliable kills are the ones your cyno bomber points on decloak. |
Vincent Athena
V.I.C.E. Aegis Solaris
1927
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 13:34:00 -
[25] - Quote
Grandma Squirel wrote:@Vincent Athena - Chasing the spawn is going to result in a lot of down time, and the guy who cheats and skips 5 anoms ahead and gets to mine in one place till you get to him wins.
No, because in the circuit the one 5 jumps ahead will have been mined out 2 hours ago and will not respawn for another 2 hours, about the time the blob circles around to it.
Imagine a circuit of 10 ice belts. The blob mines each out in 20 minutes, then each member spends 4 minutes dumping ore and moving to the next system. 24 minutes per belt. 10 belts: 240 minutes, 4 hours. Of those 10 belts the only one with ice will be the one the blob just arrived at. All the others are in the respawn cooldown period. If you want ice, you got to be part of the blob. http://vincentoneve.wordpress.com/ |
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
666
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 14:05:00 -
[26] - Quote
Rhivre wrote: I dont think they will be popping in 5 minutes, I just don't think people will like not having ice available all the time.
I think Osmon etc will have some adjustments due to the sheer volume of miners there, and I know they are respawning every 4 hours, but, it could be frustrating to log in just before it depletes.
Of course, my advice in that situation would be "go to a quieter system", but, miners, like missioners are creatures of habit ^^
Not liking something, and not being able to work around it are two very different things.
There is no increased risk to ICE mining, it will just require a little more effort to be in the right place at the right time. This will be offset by the advantage of mining ICE twice as fast, and the prices not dropping due to limited supply. ICE mining will take more effort, but at the same be much more rewarding from those putting in that effort. Yet the level of risk will stay pretty much the same. Sure ganking of ICE miners may go up, but how many will get ganked before the belt in flooded with CONCORD. Many players may not "like" it, but I do not see a big problem here.
The flip side is the changes to null sec ore mining. This is not just a matter of players not liking the change. Null sec mining is fairly risk adverse now, to the point where only a small number of players do it. By removing that layer of safety provided by hidden belts being grav sites that had to be scanned down the risk factor has gone up exponentially, While there has only been a slight buff to the rewards.
Miners are risk adverse players. They will adapt to changes that make mining require more effort, like the changes to ICE mining. But they will be much more resistant to changes that increase risk. There is no way for a solo miner to mitigate that increased risk thru added effort. The only possible way to mitigate if is by mining deep inside blue territory where you have a large alliance protecting the space you are mining in. Or is there another option that eludes me?
These smaller mining outfits have no way to adapt, there is no tools provided they can use to mitigate the added risk. They can only join a larger alliance, or rent space from them, if they want to continue mining in Null. Those larger alliances are not that easy to get into. Most of them are PVP focused and have no interest in miners. This will not change just because Fozzie wants it to. The majority of null sec miners will be SOL, and will have very few choices available. Either join or rent space from a large null sec alliance, or go back to high sec.
Continuing operations as they do now will only make them prime gank targets, and I guarantee you, there will be loads on small gangs roaming these no longer hidden belts looking for miners to pop. At least until there are no miners left. For those who do not want to play under the thumb of a large alliance the choices are go back to high sec, or quit mining an find another activity. If I have missed an option here please enlighten me. |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
211
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Posted - 2013.05.31 14:37:00 -
[27] - Quote
I am not sure what the point we are arguing is.
I think it is different points.
I am saying "I do not see miners hopping 16 jumps to get to the next anomaly"
You are saying "Miners will be pushed into big alliances, or back to highsec"
I think... Although I may be misunderstanding you |
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
666
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 20:45:00 -
[28] - Quote
Rhivre wrote:I am not sure what the point we are arguing is.
I think it is different points.
I am saying "I do not see miners hopping 16 jumps to get to the next anomaly"
You are saying "Miners will be pushed into big alliances, or back to highsec"
I think... Although I may be misunderstanding you MY bad.
You commented about miners not liking the changes to the ICE fields.
I meant to illustrate the difference between not liking some thing and being able to work around it. I was using the changes to null sec grav sites as an example of a change that required more than players adapting and learning to work around it. I apologize for getting carried away.
The Changes to ICE mining, while being game changing and will require players to adapt are pretty harsh. However the adaptation should be fairly easy, and does not come along with added risk. You will need to change the way you mine ICE, or get pushed out by those with a more flexible time schedule. But ICE depletion should be a healthy game change. But they may have taken it a little to far.
My point was as much as player may not like the ICE mining changes, they are not really game breaking. While the changes to the null sec grav sites are not so easy to adapt too.
With the ICE mining changes you will be able to adapt and still be successful as a solo miner. However with the changes to null sec grav sites there is no way to adapt. Your only choice will be to join a large null sec alliance that can provide you with safe space to mine in. Odyssey will be the death of the Solo/mutibox null sec miner. At least outside of the space controlled by the big alliances.
I get that I am not comparing apples to apples, more like apples to carrots, and it may be hard to grasp what I am trying to say. But if you want to talk about the impact the mining changes coming with Odyssey will have, comparing ICE mining to ore mining is a valid point.
The ICE mining changes while frustrating, and requiring adaptation, are not really game breaking. The game play is changing, but the risk level of the activity will not really be affected. While the changes coming for null sec miners may be very game breaking. And comes with an exponential increase in risk.
The ICE mining changes will level out and be easier to adapt to with time. While the Null sec grav site changes will only continue to get worse as more and more gankers realize how easy it will be post Odyssey to find those miners. |
Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
211
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 20:49:00 -
[29] - Quote
Ah, in that case, I agree with you :)
Now we need a group hug, some cookies and coffee....or, a bbq and some beer! |
Daniel Plain
Science and Trade Institute Caldari State
1155
|
Posted - 2013.05.31 22:17:00 -
[30] - Quote
Dave Stark wrote:Daniel Plain wrote:Bugsy VanHalen wrote:Rhivre wrote:Danni stark wrote:
ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.
*some* ice belts wont be And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice" Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks. i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms. why would they do that? "hey guys, i want to earn less isk, care to join me?" ...unless of course organization would net you more ISK, which in this case it would. imagine several loosely connected corps/alliances, each of them controlling the rspawn timers in several systems. none of them has an interest in trespassing into the others' territories as this would mean more time warping and less time mining. smaller entities are pushed aside as the locust swarm gobbles the ice down in half an hour or so, warps off and then comes back exactly four hours later.
"I don't troll, I just give overly blunt responses that annoy people who are wrong but don't want to admit it. It's not my fault that people have sensitive feelings" -MXZF |
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