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Sarah Thrace
Mindstar Technology
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Posted - 2011.01.12 08:41:00 -
[1]
Curious to get everyone's thoughts on the following.
In the past 6 weeks there has been a dramatic rise in the price of jumpr freighters, namely Rhea's. Towards the end of November I built a rhea for approximately 3.7BN (ME -2) + value of a bpc. I sold it last week for 4.9bn as a wardec limited its usefullness over the next couple weeks and 1BN easy money is hard to pass up.
The prices have come down off the highs by about 200M and sit at 4.7BN right now which is inline with the current build costs considering the market value of the BPCs.
The three main contributers to this rise in price seem to be: -Charon (nocxium) 650M -> 830M -Titanium Carbide 600M -> 900M (for built T2 cap components) -Fullerides 1100M -> 1450M (for built T2 cap components)
Charon Pricing: I would think that this quick price jump has three key causes -Increase in the price on nocxium both delaying/reducing construction as well as increasing the build cost of the components. -Quick jump in the price of Rhea's increasing the number of charons used in rhea production to chase profit there.
Moon Materials: Dramatic increase in the prices of some materials, most noteably titanium carbide. My guess is this is in large part due to an increase in the cost of POS operation and the reduction of supply as a result. The Jita market has just over 1.5 days of supply. However, by the nature of the graph there is almost certianly a fair amount of specualtive impact in these markets as well.
I hope to see the prices moderate in the coming weeks after the patch in the 18th. In theory easing the inflationary spiral of POS fuels and increasing the supply of monn materials.
What are your thoughts?
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Sealiah
Minmatar Coffee Lovers Brewing Club Care Factor
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Posted - 2011.01.12 09:07:00 -
[2]
Well, if you'd view the bigger market history you'd see that the price was like that some time ago...
Moon goo and moon goo products -> often people wait months before they sell them (like me - I sell mine every 2, sometimes 3 months when I'm lazy. Last time I managed to dump crystalline carbonide prices by 4 isk (total price of 80-something at that time). Also, another factor is that you don't see a lot of the product changing hands. Some buyers tend to contact me directly and just order lets say 30m crystalline carbonide and buy it off at market buy order +1.5 isk in the moment I gather it, so the prices tend not to drop (not recorded for supply nor demand).
Wait a month or two, the goo will flow.
And yes, I am posting wtih my main because I don't find it a big risk to lose a pos or two :P yay for cheap poses after PI!
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Deamos
Quintessential Teldar Paper
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Posted - 2011.01.12 15:04:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Sarah Thrace Curious to get everyone's thoughts on the following. ... What are your thoughts?
I would think it also happened around the time that the Learning Skills were removed. More SPs to burn = More People in <Insert Ship Type Here> = Lower Supply of <Ship Type> = Higher Prices of <Ship Type> -
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Sarah Thrace
Mindstar Technology
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Posted - 2011.01.13 09:42:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Deamos
I would think it also happened around the time that the Learning Skills were removed. More SPs to burn = More People in <Insert Ship Type Here> = Lower Supply of <Ship Type> = Higher Prices of <Ship Type>
Im sure there are a few people who did that, however the skills are a small obstacle compared to the purchase price of a JF for most people.
What I'm struggling to explain is the sharp rise in tritanium carbide and nano-transistors since 1 DEC. I guess its possible the skill ups increased demand for T2 gear in general resulting in more production and higher input material prices.
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Deamos
Quintessential Teldar Paper
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Posted - 2011.01.13 12:46:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Sarah Thrace
Originally by: Deamos
I would think it also happened around the time that the Learning Skills were removed. More SPs to burn = More People in <Insert Ship Type Here> = Lower Supply of <Ship Type> = Higher Prices of <Ship Type>
Im sure there are a few people who did that, however the skills are a small obstacle compared to the purchase price of a JF for most people.
What I'm struggling to explain is the sharp rise in tritanium carbide and nano-transistors since 1 DEC. I guess its possible the skill ups increased demand for T2 gear in general resulting in more production and higher input material prices.
Yeah, I imagine that what I stated is nowhere near the whole picture. However, keep in mind that other ships/modules purchased can cause manufacturing prices to skyrocket and shoot up the prices of other ships/modules if they require the same components. -
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Ralagina
Caldari Vivicide Merciless.
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Posted - 2011.01.13 18:23:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Sarah Thrace
Im sure there are a few people who did that, however the skills are a small obstacle compared to the purchase price of a JF for most people.
Oh, I dunno, Racial Industrial to 5, Jump Drive Operation 5 etc is a couple of mil. I suspect many "hauler alts" suddenly had 2-3m SP available and dumped it in to JFs. --
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Tamarana
Minmatar Advanced Idea Mechanical
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Posted - 2011.01.16 14:27:00 -
[7]
It is not exactly the same to give an alt a few millions of SP and drop him a JF worth 5 billions. So the free SP is not the reason (or not the most important). I would suggest that many things are increased in prices, like BS. For example, the Maelstrom sold in Jita are near doubled in number from fall to winter. Now they are stabilizing in price and volume is a bit lower than the max.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.01.16 14:54:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Tamarana It is not exactly the same to give an alt a few millions of SP and drop him a JF worth 5 billions. So the free SP is not the reason (or not the most important). I would suggest that many things are increased in prices, like BS. For example, the Maelstrom sold in Jita are near doubled in number from fall to winter. Now they are stabilizing in price and volume is a bit lower than the max.
Maelstrom is due to a change in FOTM in 0.0, unrelated to all of this. The JF price increase can be explained largely due to the SP reallocation, remember a lot of people would have been training specifically to get a JF intending to buy it and suddenly find themselves able to do it earlier. So rather than having several dozen purchases across multiple weeks you have them all being done within a short period of time as everyone who would have had training finished from december-february suddenly is able to do it all in december.
Also the component parts have gone up in price, due to increase in demand from many other ships, including the T1 freighters themselves which are used in the JF production process.
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