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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.09.16 16:55:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Scott McClellan on 16/09/2010 17:19:15 Edited by: Scott McClellan on 16/09/2010 16:56:35 INTRODUCTION
See my previous bond thread here SMC Bond #1
Most introductory information is there (as well as answers to some basic questions), I'll try to keep this clean and fast
Type: Bond
Proprietor: Scott McClellan Total ISK: 4 Billion Launch Date: September 19, 9PM GMT End Date: October 19, 9PM GMT
# of Shares: 40 Share Price: 100m each Interest: 10%, paid at end of bond
RESERVATIONS
Taram Caldar: 10 shares (1B ISK)
In the event of early cancellation for whatever reason, full interest will be paid.
Business strategy outline: I'm looking to move from primarily flip-trading to trading on a longer holding period. Flip trading and very short term holds don't require much ISK, but I would need to have more liquid capital if I were to hold goods for a longer period of time. Also, there is some opportunity in creating price spreads, that cannot be done in most markets with a limited amount of ISK. On the side I also coordinate with a friend to run goods to 0.0 in a JF, but this requires fairly little ISK, and is not the reason for this bond.
NAV By my estimate (using EveHQ and adjusting for incorrectly calculated BPC value and market trading skill) about 5B. Of that about 1B is ôpersonalö assets, not used in trading. I'm sure the audit will probably show more detail.
Collateral: None. If I had collateral I would be using the funds to finance my trading, I have the aforementioned 'safety net' of assets/ISK, but it will remain in my possession for business use.
Withdrawal access: Given that this bond is fairly short-term, I would ask you not invest if you feel you would need to make a withdrawal before maturity. I am not planning to offer such service.
Audit: VV agreed to perform an audit, it will be posted below.
To Conclude:
This bond will launch on the target date regardless of the amount of funding received. It would be nice to fill the bond, but I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing whether or not I receive any funding, albeit at a slower rate. As always, invest at your own risk and to those who do I'll see you on the other side. If you have any questions you don't mind asking in public, please do so here so the answers can be posted for everyone.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.16 16:58:00 -
[2]
Audit report for Scott McClellan business proposal
This is Vaerah Vahroka's analysis as of 2010-09-13 20:00 EvE Time.
Tools used EvEMon jEveAssets EvEMeep EvE Asset Manager EvE Income Analyzer Eve Trader - New release by Femaref
Forewords about the Audit
Scott McClellan is a trader and 0.0 player. Currently on an growing phase of his business, he seeked out for external funding as a mean to expand his activities.
Generalities
Main character for this proposal is Scott McClellan, a trading alt, and his other characters, located on two accounts (one is recent). Scott McClellan is a well introduced 0.0 player and started a 0.0 branch of his activity currently covering about 1/5 of his turnover.
The main character is not the trading alt. He is a Jan 2006 one and got a total of about 15.5M SP. The low amount of SP is due to a very long break from the game. Three characters have trading skills, one in a more prominent amount than the others. The Investee does not move inventory to 0.0 but uses a third party. The main character is heavily tuned at PvP combat with sub capital ships of most races, he can also mine, harvest and haul. The hauling skills are trained to include industrials. The PvP character is able to fly from frigate to battleships. The various characters posted about 900 times on the EvE forums, mostly about trading / investing, ships combat, game mechanics. The Investee has records of starting a bond in the past. It succesfully concluded. The only immediately visible "odd operation" (4 PLEXes used for money) has not been hidden. It got a terse explanation here.
Involvement in other business
None.
Business Plan Analysis
The Investee sent the Auditor several informations about his business. The plan is simple and it's about station trading both in high sec (the vast majority of turnover) and in a 0.0 hub. The amount requested is in line with the Investee capabilities and the 10% interest offered seems fair enough, expecially with a previous succesful bond.
The Auditor ran a performance check both on the high sec and the 0.0 stations, for about 20 days.
Gross sales in hi sec have been about 7.6B, with a profit of about 1.4B (18%) Gross sales in 0.0 have been about 1.8B, with a profit of about 500M (28%).
The best sold item category ranks 40% profit, others tend to rank 13%, few sell at a loss but in low volume. One peculiarity that the Auditor noticed is how besides using a third party freight, the Investee has a very different 0.0 market and it's heavily based on low value items. This substantially helps mitigating the potential losses faced by losing the cargo on its way to the 0.0 station.
The following graphs have been anonymized to protect the Investee trade secrets.
Graph about the daily activity of the Investee:
List of the top 15 sold items. The list aggregates both hi sec and 0.0 sec sold items:
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.16 17:01:00 -
[3]
List of the 0.0 sec best sold items:
Approximate trading efficiency, that is realized profit / gross sales
Approximate income per hour across the week
Collateral and exit strategy
No collateral is going to be provided. No "hit by a bus" exit strategy has been suggested as well.
Net Asset Value and other balance considerations
The estimated net worth of all liabilities, solid & liquid assets is about 5.237B ISK. The transactions are made by the trade characters. Assets across all of the characters and corporations are estimated to be worth 3.208B.
Assets and balance
Balance
Wallet balance: 1.485B Market sell-orders: 2.013B (this value is skipped in the total since they are included in the assets evaluation below). Market escrow: 544M Contracts: 0M Investments: 0M
Total: 2.029B
Assets
POS: 0M Fleet / ships: 880M (unfitted) Modules: 502M Misc. solid assets; minerals, salvage, ice and trade goods etc.: 810M Blueprint copies and originals: 450K Charges: 253M Drones: 57M (reported to somewhat reduce the "other" category) Other: About 706M Ordered assets under construction: 0M
Total: 3.208B
---------------------------------------
Estimated grand total: 5.237 Billion ISK
Business impressions
This kind of business can bring in quite good profits, the statistics are in the higher part of the average. The downside is the risk. A bond for trading with no collateral nor exit strategy is high risk already, the fraction of it based on 0.0 is even riskier.
It has to be said that the combination of using a third party for transport plus selling cheap items in the 0.0 branch partially counters the inherent risks of loss.
Risks
The estimated largest risks of failure, in decreasing order, involve: player stopping to play for any reason (he took a pause off EvE in the past), scam, loss of inventory while freigthing it in 0.0.
Conclusions
Due to the lack of collateral, lack of RL exit strategy, and inherent risk at 0.0 hauling / trading, the Auditor classifies this investment as very high risk. Notice how "high risk" is not a negative judgement on the business plan or kind.
The Investee seems competent (skills wise and player wise) enough to deliver on his statements, his business is in a growth phase, he's has API records showing he's currently operating as he stated. The Investee looks like being able to deal with the 0.0 conditions, the PvP character record is quite good.
Basically, the Investee looks like with the ability to successfully honor the bond. Notice how an audit can only evaluate the ability or potential of an Investee to succesfully honor a bond / IPO. The Auditor suggests perspective Investors NOT to invest their full capital on this venture but to offer what they could eventually afford to lose.
Disclaimers
Due to stringent EvE API limitations, although the information provided to you on this document is obtained or compiled from sources believed to be reliable, Vahrokh Consulting cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness, or completeness of any information or data made available to you for any particular purpose. Neither the information nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by Vahrokh Consulting or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, assets or services.
- Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders Warped Aggression
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Posted - 2010.09.16 17:17:00 -
[4]
I probably would have invested in the last one had you gotten an audit. Glad to see you got one for this one. It answered the questions I didn't already have the answers to nicely.
A little nervous about the 0.0 portions of this plan but I have some spare isk so....
I'm in for 1 bil.
Market Alerts Mailing List
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.09.16 17:23:00 -
[5]
I've added you to the reservation list Taram, I'm going to be out of the house for a few hours, after that I'll be back to answer questions if anyone has more.
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Jan VanRijkdom
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Posted - 2010.09.16 17:32:00 -
[6]
My spacebar suddenly stopped working,sorry but if no minimum I'd like 1share-100m Thanks
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Azirith Everstorm
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Posted - 2010.09.16 17:33:00 -
[7]
I would like 3 shares @ 300m isk
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Alacta Lithia
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Posted - 2010.09.16 18:26:00 -
[8]
Would like to reserve 500mil.
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Machete Visor
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Posted - 2010.09.16 18:29:00 -
[9]
100m for me.
VV, nice audit report.
a few of the charts were a little confusing. the sales/profit per day though were the most pertinent to my decision though.
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berytus
Gallente Royal Black Watch Highlanders Warped Aggression
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Posted - 2010.09.16 18:39:00 -
[10]
i would like to buy 5 shares if they are still available.
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Pantheon Lea
Farmer Boyz
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Posted - 2010.09.16 19:43:00 -
[11]
I'm in for the last 10 shares, 1 billion isk.
Pantheon Lea
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.09.16 20:53:00 -
[12]
Edited by: Scott McClellan on 16/09/2010 20:53:51 Wow, that was fast! As of now the reservation list has been updated and all bonds have been reserved. I have no plans to move the launch date, but I'm aiming to get this ball rolling a little before 9PM GMT Sunday (probably closer to 3-4), so I can have all the ISK and shares transferred by that time. Hopefully this will work better for people, but exact timing isn't critical for me.
I will bump this thread again when it's time to send the ISK, I'll see you all then.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.09.16 21:36:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Machete Visor 100m for me.
VV, nice audit report.
a few of the charts were a little confusing. the sales/profit per day though were the most pertinent to my decision though.
Thank you for the appreciation. If you desire any further explanation please evemail me. - Auditing & consulting
When looking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h + http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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stewieni
Instant Annihilation Everto Rex Regis
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Posted - 2010.09.17 07:03:00 -
[14]
1 share - 100mil if its still going.
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.09.17 19:33:00 -
[15]
Originally by: stewieni 1 share - 100mil if its still going.
All the bonds have been reserved thus far already, but I'll put you on the wait list in case someone drops out if you like.
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Azirith Everstorm
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Posted - 2010.09.18 19:35:00 -
[16]
Who do i send the money to? Scott McClellan? Thanks new the bond game.
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.09.19 16:05:00 -
[17]
I'd like to start taking ISK now, I'll get the shares out later tonight but I have you all on an external list as well (the shares are mostly for your records/confirmation).
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berytus
Gallente Royal Black Watch Highlanders Warped Aggression
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Posted - 2010.09.19 16:06:00 -
[18]
isk sent.
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Alacta Lithia
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Posted - 2010.09.19 16:53:00 -
[19]
Isk sent.
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Pantheon Lea
Farmer Boyz
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Posted - 2010.09.19 17:55:00 -
[20]
ISK sent. Pantheon Lea
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.09.19 21:41:00 -
[21]
Confirming receipt of ISK from
Taram Caldar (1B) Alacta Lithia (500M) Machete Visor (100M) berytus (1B) Pantheon Lea (1B)
Thank you, your shares are sent.
Still waiting for
Jan VanRijkdom: 1 bond (100M) Azirith Everstorm: 3 bonds (300M)
Please get to it when you can.
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egola
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Posted - 2010.09.20 02:48:00 -
[22]
Edited by: egola on 20/09/2010 02:49:34
Originally by: Scott McClellan Edited by: Scott McClellan on 20/09/2010 00:25:25 Confirming receipt of ISK from
Taram Caldar (1B) Alacta Lithia (500M) Machete Visor (100M) berytus (1B) Pantheon Lea (1B)
Thank you, your shares are sent.
Still waiting for
Jan VanRijkdom: 1 bond (100M) Azirith Everstorm: 3 bonds (300M)
Please get to it when you can. To answer your question Azirith ISK should be sent to this character.
put me on reserve for those 400m if it doesn't fall through also send me an eve-mail with instructions to who to give the isk to and some sort of confirmation on your part.
Thank you
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Jan VanRijkdom
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Posted - 2010.09.20 05:52:00 -
[23]
Isk-Sent
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Ramingo
Caldari Payable on Death
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Posted - 2010.09.20 05:57:00 -
[24]
I'd like to reserve 500 mill please if any of the investors before me drop out.
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.10.17 19:22:00 -
[25]
Well it's almost that time people, I'm moving repayment to Monday night the 18th, as I will likely be out of the house quite a bit on Tuesday.
I have the list of shareholders tracked here, and on an external spreadsheet, please return your shares in the next couple of days so that I can get everything cleaned up on that end.
This announcement will go out to all investors in evemail as well.
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Alacta Lithia
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Posted - 2010.10.17 19:32:00 -
[26]
Shares returned.
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Pantheon Lea
Farmer Boyz
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Posted - 2010.10.17 20:46:00 -
[27]
Shares returned. Pantheon Lea
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Noxford
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Posted - 2010.10.18 03:14:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Jan VanRijkdom My spacebar suddenly stopped working,sorry but if no minimum I'd like 1share-100m Thanks
That was painful for me. I felt like a typewriter. _____________________________ - Noxford Realtor Services - |
berytus
Gallente Royal Black Watch Highlanders Warped Aggression
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Posted - 2010.10.18 09:23:00 -
[29]
shares returned :)
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Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
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Posted - 2010.10.18 13:22:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Scott McClellan on 18/10/2010 13:24:44 As of 09:22 EST all bonds have been repaid (in journal as personal donation), please confirm receipt of your ISK and return shares if you haven't done so already (Taram, Jan, and Machete).
Thank you to all investors, it's been a pleasure
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