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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.15 13:06:00 -
[181]
Edited by: RAW23 on 15/07/2010 13:07:29
Originally by: Grozen This is taken from the recent csm meeting: 15:30-16:30 POS Structures / Components CCP Attendees: Eyj=lfur û CCP DrEyjoG, Arnar û CCP Zulupark
This session discussed the unfortunate market situation related to the introduction of planetary interaction, where players could stockpile some of the end products of PI such as Guidance Systems, thus adversely affecting the profitability of their production, as well as buying POS structures from NPCs and reprocessing them for PI goods at greatly reduced cost.
The CSM asked how this situation came about without CCP realizing it, and pointed out that some players had figured this out on Singularity and were ready to make use of it immediately after deployment on Tranquility.
CCP will try to learn from this experience in order to avoid similar things in the future.
Action Point: CCP will do research into the history of this issue and publish a dev blog about it, identifying what steps will be taken to prevent similar things in the future.
They are not going to do anything about this cosmoray you are wrong this time.
I'm not sure this is quite the message that comes out. Some additional passages muddy the waters.
On the one hand:
Originally by: CSM minutes
CCP stated that it decided not to react hastily once the issue [of stockpiling] was discovered because it deemed that the potential damage was limited enough to warrant waiting for a full and well-thought-out solution.
On the other hand:
Originally by: CSM minutes
The question was raised how one can prevent hoarding of goods from NPC suppliers prior to market changes like these without causing a shortage of the items prior to the patch. One solution which was suggested was that NPC provided goods have dynamic pricing which would raise their price significantly once people start to hoard them. The CSM inquired about CCPÆs original plan for these products and the use of the PI feature. CCP explained that it didnÆt really set such specific goals for them but rather sought to create the market mechanism and let player behavior determine how the market functions.
I don't think it is exactly clear that they won't do anything but they certainly don't seem to be in any hurry. And the longer they leave it the more problematic any solution will become. As time goes on any nerf will increasingly hit people who have taken part in normal market activities rather than those who stockpiled goods.
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.15 13:11:00 -
[182]
I highly doubt ccp wants to mess with player driven markets.From the meeting it looked like they were positive time will offset the stockpiled goods and they want players to find the balance.So stop moaning for a patch/nerf it ain't coming. knowledge is power |
RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.15 13:23:00 -
[183]
Originally by: Grozen I highly doubt ccp wants to mess with player driven markets.From the meeting it looked like they were positive time will offset the stockpiled goods and they want players to find the balance.So stop moaning for a patch/nerf it ain't coming.
Not moaning (and I certainly don't want a patch/nerf on this). Just pointing out that your slightly selective quotation missed out the bit about waiting for "a full and well-thought-out solution" to the issue. I'd agree that this is probably exec speak for kicking it into the long grass but you never know ...
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Grozen
Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.15 13:35:00 -
[184]
Even if they do have a solution(big doubt) for this it won't hit before the winter expansion, and by then a lot things may happen.They may even decide that they like what they see and focus on something else. knowledge is power |
Sol Fallstaff
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Posted - 2010.07.15 13:47:00 -
[185]
I cant see the PI markets stabilising until the seeded npc supplies have run out. As things stand my time is better invested doing lvl 4's than spending the time clicking on extractors and hauling the goods isk per hour wise so we'll see how many people get fed up of the tedium and dont bother, but it is a great source of income for the new player. The macroers may ruin the PI markets if it turns out to be worth it for them.. time will tell.
If the macroers dont drop the price through the floor, then GS at current prices should be a great long term investment... if you can wait until the seeded supplies run out. just be prepared for a bumpy ride
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Mrs bjSmegma
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Posted - 2010.07.15 14:33:00 -
[186]
Quote: apparently the people selling at 8k can't be bothered to open up a spreadsheet and do the basic calculations, so they can go ahead and cash out at this ridiculous price, I won't stop them
My spreadsheet says that selling something for more than I'll be charged to buy it back in a month is a good idea.
Guidance System Holders "Hmmmmm where am I gonna fit all these things I can't use? Oh I know I'll put them in the garage next to the technetium I bought at 60 last year."
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Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
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Posted - 2010.07.15 14:49:00 -
[187]
Originally by: Mrs bjSmegma My spreadsheet says that selling something for more than I'll be charged to buy it back in a month is a good idea.
Guidance System Holders "Hmmmmm where am I gonna fit all these things I can't use? Oh I know I'll put them in the garage next to the technetium I bought at 60 last year."
I was playing a drinking game of 'spot the price manipulators' and now have to go back out to get more beer...
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Talonyc a'Tsuj
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Posted - 2010.07.15 16:38:00 -
[188]
I'm now selling CE like crazy. CE is dropping back to pre-PI levels. Fortunately I have no robotics in stock. If I had, I'd be selling it for as much as I could.
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.15 16:43:00 -
[189]
Edited by: pmchem on 15/07/2010 16:45:06 By pretty much any spreadsheet-based analysis of PI out there, GS are not worth producing at their current price via PI. In fact, they're worth buying straight off the market to use as part of production for their P4 -- aside from just buying and holding for the inevitable price rise as current replenishment of supply does not meet current demand. Demand is only being met by stockpilers and speculators dumping.
A lot of people panic selling to take profits, that's all you're seeing here. GS is an easy moneymaker at current prices.
edit: talonyc's post is an even more blatant attempt at market manipulation. CE have been steady the past 24h and are worth 10x their pre-PI cost, lawl. It's like the manipulators here think people can't look at price history graphs. Manipulate better.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.15 17:07:00 -
[190]
Originally by: pmchem
edit: talonyc's post is an even more blatant attempt at market manipulation. CE have been steady the past 24h and are worth 10x their pre-PI cost, lawl. It's like the manipulators here think people can't look at price history graphs. Manipulate better.
The amazing thing is that this stuff consistently works. A sad indictment of humanity.
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Kwaya
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Posted - 2010.07.15 17:17:00 -
[191]
Edited by: Kwaya on 15/07/2010 17:25:09
The best course of action seems to be selling robotics (and ce) for now. You could hold on to it and look at the prices in a few months but I wouldn't bet on CCP not adjusting PI extraction levels.
The safest way for now: sell robotics and ce. Fast.
You don't have to believe me. Look at the graphs. A steep and consistent downwards slope with no end. Soon you'll be happy to sell ce for under 1000isk/unit.
You have been warned. Don't come back crying in a few days when the final blow punches the price way below 1000isk. Sell now for around 2k and you can still have a decent profit or (if you bought it at a higher price) you can at least minimize your losses. SELL!
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.07.15 17:50:00 -
[192]
Originally by: Kwaya
You don't have to believe me. Look at the graphs. A steep and consistent downwards slope with no end.
Wow - that's really weird. You see, my graph does have an end and it lines up with today's date. Can you post your endless graph of prophecy here so we can all benefit from its wisdom?
My graph is also not consistent - it shows upswings and down swings and, actually, the downward trend is pretty recent and much less significant than the upwards trends the graph also shows.
Are you one of Lord XsiV's alts?
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2010.07.15 17:55:00 -
[193]
I wonder how stupid some people can be.
Why NPC stockpillers have to keep the stash? For 30% profit in next 2-3 years? They alredy have 10X profit. And now risk all that for some % on top in the next long term period?
SELL I say.
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Sol Fallstaff
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Posted - 2010.07.15 17:55:00 -
[194]
Any increase in the PI extraction levels will result in PI not being worth doing so i very much doubt if that would be the case
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:10:00 -
[195]
For anyone late to the thread and scratching their heads at the 'SELL!' manipulators, here is why GS and CE (to give 2 examples) are excellent long-term buys right now: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdFN0NTZtcjdBMHRxZC1pbUdpVEJsNmc&hl=en#gid=1 and http://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?key=taHtreoEfapNEdkqqdxscqg&hl=en_GB#gid=10
In 2 independent spreadsheets you see that it costs much, much more in ingredients to produce CE or GS than you get in resulting finished product (CE or GS). Therefore CE/GS are due to increase in value long term, because people doing PI have no incentive to produce these products compared to other P2/P3 (or just selling the ingredients).
Any given day, someone may buy out Jita causing a price spike, or unload a stockpile causing a temporary drop. Can't panic sell unless you enjoy losing isk. Of course, the manipulators know these long term facts already, so they find a great price to buy when a recent downward sell-off is ending, set up buy orders and then come post here screaming 'SELL! SELL!'. It's an easy ploy. Don't fall for it. In fact -- take the advice of their actions and -buy-.
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Talonyc a'Tsuj
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:16:00 -
[196]
Originally by: pmchem For anyone late to the thread and scratching their heads at the 'SELL!' manipulators, here is why GS and CE (to give 2 examples) are excellent long-term buys right now: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdFN0NTZtcjdBMHRxZC1pbUdpVEJsNmc&hl=en#gid=1 and http://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?key=taHtreoEfapNEdkqqdxscqg&hl=en_GB#gid=10
In 2 independent spreadsheets you see that it costs much, much more in ingredients to produce CE or GS than you get in resulting finished product (CE or GS). Therefore CE/GS are due to increase in value long term, because people doing PI have no incentive to produce these products compared to other P2/P3 (or just selling the ingredients).
Any given day, someone may buy out Jita causing a price spike, or unload a stockpile causing a temporary drop. Can't panic sell unless you enjoy losing isk. Of course, the manipulators know these long term facts already, so they find a great price to buy when a recent downward sell-off is ending, set up buy orders and then come post here screaming 'SELL! SELL!'. It's an easy ploy. Don't fall for it. In fact -- take the advice of their actions and -buy-.
Anyone can see those charts are flawed. Even if they weren't flawed, there's the not so remote chance that CCP introduces serious changes to PI. Don't forget PI is a new feature bound to change rapidly in the first period. Those (flawed) calculations are based on here and now but they don't (and can't) take long term changes into consideration.
Anyone saying you shouldn't sell is a crook. They are trying to offload themselves.
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:20:00 -
[197]
Edited by: pmchem on 15/07/2010 18:23:11 I post with logic, numbers, spreadsheets not created by me vetted by other players in S&I, while a manipulator like the one above just posts a vague claim of 'flawed' and a panic declarative to 'sell'.
Check the long-term (20-day) price trends for CE/GS, check the spreadsheets, examine the sheer number of buy orders and 0.01 market pvp in buy orders -- and know I'm the one speaking the truth.
edit: I mean half of talonyc's fearmongering is based on CCP changing PI... as if that's guaranteed to help his cause. It's just laughable.
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Talonyc a'Tsuj
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:23:00 -
[198]
Originally by: pmchem I post with logic, numbers, spreadsheets not created by me vetted by other players in S&I, while a manipulator like the one above just posts a vague claim of 'flawed' and a panic declarative to 'sell'.
Check the long-term (20-day) price trends for CE/GS, check the spreadsheets, examine the sheer number of buy orders and 0.01 market pvp in buy orders -- and know I'm the one speaking the truth.
Hear this. I offer conventional wisdom and pure logic. CE is at 10x of its NPC value. You didn't seriously believe that it would go to 20x-50x value??? If so, then it's time to reconsider and take cold facts into account. Those charts were made to manipulate you into buying. How convenient of you. Please. It's time to sell. Everything you have.
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Saehta
Sigillum Militum Xpisti R.A.G.E
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:23:00 -
[199]
Originally by: Talonyc a'Tsuj
Originally by: pmchem For anyone late to the thread and scratching their heads at the 'SELL!' manipulators, here is why GS and CE (to give 2 examples) are excellent long-term buys right now: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Av49RIDL-V7zdFN0NTZtcjdBMHRxZC1pbUdpVEJsNmc&hl=en#gid=1 and http://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?key=taHtreoEfapNEdkqqdxscqg&hl=en_GB#gid=10
In 2 independent spreadsheets you see that it costs much, much more in ingredients to produce CE or GS than you get in resulting finished product (CE or GS). Therefore CE/GS are due to increase in value long term, because people doing PI have no incentive to produce these products compared to other P2/P3 (or just selling the ingredients).
Any given day, someone may buy out Jita causing a price spike, or unload a stockpile causing a temporary drop. Can't panic sell unless you enjoy losing isk. Of course, the manipulators know these long term facts already, so they find a great price to buy when a recent downward sell-off is ending, set up buy orders and then come post here screaming 'SELL! SELL!'. It's an easy ploy. Don't fall for it. In fact -- take the advice of their actions and -buy-.
Nuh uh
Fixed your comeback to something less wordy. -----------------------------------
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pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:27:00 -
[200]
In the long term, NPC value means nothing as stockpiles are finite and dwindling. Talonyc knows this, and wants to buy. Compare CE's price to non-NPC seeded P2s such as supertensile plastics. CE will inevitably rise.
Talonyc if you want to get better at market manipulation, I am sure several people on the forum could help you out. The efforts by 'sell!' manipulators in this thread are pretty sad, come up with a better story please.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:28:00 -
[201]
How long to keep, dude? 1,2 or more years? For what, 30% profit?
On the other side, there is P1 materials showing ugly head of price under 300 or even 200 isk, coz no one wants them, used in products that can be replaced with much cheaper NPC stockpiles causing that spreadsheets to become more and more self-fullfilling. Yes, in the red side of equation.
Simply, too much stockpilled Pi, and very low demand.
Oh they are worth alot more, maybe twice this price, but sometime in the future, who knows when. Have 5-10x profit now? SELL I say.
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Dr Halley
Amarr Viziam
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:30:00 -
[202]
Originally by: MMarlon How long to keep, dude? 1,2 or more years? For what, 30% profit?
On the other side, there is P1 materials showing ugly head of price under 300 or even 200 isk, coz no one wants them, used in products that can be replaced with much cheaper NPC stockpiles causing that spreadsheets to become more and more self-fullfilling. Yes, in the red side of equation.
Simply, too much stockpilled Pi, and very low demand.
Oh they are worth alot more, maybe twice this price, but sometime in the future, who knows when. Have 5-10x profit now? SELL I say.
Seems to be a valid point. I have no other choice but to agree. "4 of 5 Doctors agree that 0.0 is good for your health." |
pmchem
Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:35:00 -
[203]
So whose alt is Halley?
Anyway, for the products under discussion there is plenty of demand. GS are used in T2 drones (I hear T2 drones are kind of popular and sometimes people even lose them), while CE have 1,356 different uses in manufacture/research (it's true - check out all the items it's needed to do research for) and are also used as an ingredient to create Robotics, which as I hear, gets used now and then.
They are literally among the highest demand items within their tiers.
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:35:00 -
[204]
Originally by: Talonyc a'Tsuj
Anyone can see those charts are flawed. Even if they weren't flawed, there's the not so remote chance that CCP introduces serious changes to PI. Don't forget PI is a new feature bound to change rapidly in the first period. Those (flawed) calculations are based on here and now but they don't (and can't) take long term changes into consideration.
Anyone saying you shouldn't sell is a crook. They are trying to offload themselves.
Exactly, PI is a new feature, and going on the current value of the end product, you could quite easily argue that CCP may consider reducing extraction rates to ensure that people stick with it.
At current prices, pretty soon no one is even going to bother, you can make more isk with less hassle running one lvl4 mission compared to hours of aimless clicking. At least in missions you get to see something go boom.
Either people lose interest and production falls off completely or ccp are forced to make PI more profitable for people who can be bothered.
But don't mind me, continue with your market crashing attempts and I will join you buying up the cheap stock.
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Supervisor Grammel
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:37:00 -
[205]
Originally by: Dr Halley
Originally by: MMarlon How long to keep, dude? 1,2 or more years? For what, 30% profit?
On the other side, there is P1 materials showing ugly head of price under 300 or even 200 isk, coz no one wants them, used in products that can be replaced with much cheaper NPC stockpiles causing that spreadsheets to become more and more self-fullfilling. Yes, in the red side of equation.
Simply, too much stockpilled Pi, and very low demand.
Oh they are worth alot more, maybe twice this price, but sometime in the future, who knows when. Have 5-10x profit now? SELL I say.
Seems to be a valid point. I have no other choice but to agree.
Well, I wouldn't say it's a sure bet, but I agree that CCP could (repeat: could) introduces some changes to planetary interaction that could (!) have serious effects on material prices.
I agree with the notion that the future is obscure. IF (!) you have bought CE/ROB (etc) at NPC prices then you should probably bail out now.
You could ofc take a wait-and-see approach, sure. But it has a risk factor attached to it. Then again it could make a fortune.
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Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari Sane Industries Inc. Initiative Mercenaries
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:40:00 -
[206]
Originally by: MMarlon How long to keep, dude? 1,2 or more years? For what, 30% profit?
GS wasn't 'supposed' to hit 10k until 6 months from now, yet here we are. Thanks, but I'll take 2-5x profits 3-6 months from now.
Originally by: MMarlon On the other side, there is P1 materials showing ugly head of price under 300 or even 200 isk, coz no one wants them, used in products that can be replaced with much cheaper NPC stockpiles causing that spreadsheets to become more and more self-fullfilling. Yes, in the red side of equation.
Having been trading in those underpriced P1 materials, almost all of them are going up faster than I can gather ISK to buy...
Yeah, a big crash there.
Originally by: MMarlon Simply, too much stockpilled Pi, and very low demand.
Oh they are worth alot more, maybe twice this price, but sometime in the future, who knows when. Have 5-10x profit now? SELL I say.
With so much stockpiled goods and such low demand we should be seeing rock-bottom prices RIGHT NOW?
Yet we don't. It is almost as if we're still at the bottom of the rock or what ever.
Anyway, SELL I say.
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Miss AmarrPriceCheck
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:43:00 -
[207]
The funniest part of these posts is that even the people saying to sell are admitting that prices are going to rise, and the only question is how much. I think that tells you all you need to know.
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ZeJesus
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:48:00 -
[208]
Originally by: Miss AmarrPriceCheck The funniest part of these posts is that even the people saying to sell are admitting that prices are going to rise, and the only question is how much. I think that tells you all you need to know.
Well, they are also saying that PI could change. Don't forget that. And it seems to me a legit argument.
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Icanti
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:52:00 -
[209]
Edited by: Icanti on 15/07/2010 18:54:27
Originally by: ZeJesus
Well, they are also saying that PI could change. Don't forget that. And it seems to me a legit argument.
Yes, they are arguing CCP may make it even less profitable
Much is riding on PI. A lot of real life $$$ is depending on dust, and hence PI being a success. That's the bottom line.
Currently Dust is going to fall flat on its face as who in their right mind is going to care if they lose a planet when they can go and buy all they need from the market for such low ball amounts?
Odds are CCP making PI more profitable, and this is where the smart money is.
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MMarlon
SRBI Circle-Of-Two
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Posted - 2010.07.15 18:53:00 -
[210]
Originally by: Miss AmarrPriceCheck The funniest part of these posts is that even the people saying to sell are admitting that prices are going to rise, and the only question is how much. I think that tells you all you need to know.
Well that is true. I personally have couple of millions GS and Mech parts, Robotics and some others. GS cannot sell, no one wants them, will crash the market if I just touch the sell button; And, as I see, all buy orders are from respectable traders in this forum, trying to make illusion of demand.
Robotics selling atm, coz it's cheaper to make them at this prices.
Not desperate to sell, made alot in the past weeks, dont need isk at all. But will not buy a single Pi piece more.
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