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Samroski
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Posted - 2010.07.02 12:21:00 -
[211]
I did not keep an eye on things for some days, though I had set up some mineral buy orders at reasonably low prices. They started getting filled up, and I thought Akita may have won.
But I am glad to see that we, the anti-Akita group, are still going strong and have a good chance of winning :)
I think you should concede defeat Akita. The mineral basket went down, but not enough.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.02 13:01:00 -
[212]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/07/2010 13:04:16
It dropped before ~8 mil in ~3 weeks, then it went up ~4 mil in ~1 week, dropped ~2 mil in ~5 days, it can still drop ~9 mil in the next 4 weeks... but it's going to be close.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Darthion Illys
Amarr
Tyrans d'Or
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Posted - 2010.07.02 17:37:00 -
[213]
Mineral prices are plummeting right now. But 9 mil in 4 weeks seems like a lot.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.02 18:25:00 -
[214]
Edited by: Akita T on 02/07/2010 18:35:24
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Continuing logs from previous page + some highlights
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17.05.2010 : 71,383,363 ISK (2.66/5.98/28.17/52.04/135.19/1,364.88/2,901.74) - Mon, ~1wk before patch
[...]
29.05.2010 : 70,056,585 ISK (2.71/5.73/27.94/52.24/117.20/1,299.84/2,912.48) - Sat
[...]
03.06.2010 : 68,287,827 ISK (2.72/5.74/25.57/49.48/122.86/1,236.37/2,854.45) - Thu, ~1wk post patch
[...]
09.06.2010 : 67,870,563 ISK (2.69/5.75/25.78/48.75/127.71/1,223.04/2,734.01) - Wed, ~2wk post patch
[...]
16.06.2010 : 63,188,935 ISK (2.43/5.26/25.13/48.55/120.79/1,126.05/2,485.03) - Wed, ~3wk post patch
[...]
22.06.2010 : 63,756,892 ISK (2.55/5.16/26.16/50.02/115.66/1,062.59/2,389.57) - Tue
[big downtime]
25.06.2010 : 66,098,659 ISK (2.63/5.30/27.73/52.87/120.95/1,061.49/2,495.37) - Fri
26.06.2010 : 66,056,240 ISK (2.62/5.33/28.11/52.74/121.42/1,043.03/2,463.41) - Sat
27.06.2010 : 65,515,035 ISK (2.58/5.30/27.93/53.16/122.83/1,030.96/2,418.11) - Sun
28.06.2010 : 65,383,133 ISK (2.58/5.25/28.06/54.07/121.78/1,018.35/2,379.68) - Mon
29.06.2010 : 65,005,036 ISK (2.58/5.20/28.03/53.60/121.42/1,011.96/2,309.74) - Tue
30.06.2010 : 64,824,287 ISK (2.57/5.18/28.06/53.63/121.37/1,008.12/2,284.77) - Wed, ~5wk post patch
01.07.2010 : 64,259,461 ISK (2.54/5.11/28.01/53.17/119.23/1,007.27/2,259.36) - Thu - JUDGMENT DAY 1
02.07.2010 : 63,929,831 ISK (2.52/5.05/27.94/53.06/119.91/1,006.14/2,245.93) - Fri
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.02 18:34:00 -
[215]
___
Recent Jita IV-4 "trends" vs Forge average:
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25.06.2010
Forge avg: 66,098,659 ISK (2.63/5.30/27.73/52.87/120.95/1,061.49/2,495.37)
Jita buy o: 62,736,748 ISK (2.50/5.09/27.24/51.55/115.13/977.00/2,131.07)
Jita sell o: 64,689,756 ISK (2.54/5.17/27.96/52.76/122.00/1,025.97/2,336.97)
26.06.2010
Forge avg: 66,056,240 ISK (2.62/5.33/28.11/52.74/121.42/1,043.03/2,463.41)
Jita buy o: 63,556,238 ISK (2.50/5.10/27.62/51.23/119.89/999.52/2,290.00)
Jita sell o: 65,537,065 ISK (2.62/5.22/28.16/53.00/122.76/1,027.00/2,333.96)
27.06.2010
Forge avg: 65,515,035 ISK (2.58/5.30/27.93/53.16/122.83/1,030.96/2,418.11)
Jita buy o: 64,084,178 ISK (2.58/5.15/27.47/54.12/114.13/982.12/2,223.00)
Jita sell o: 65,771,009 ISK (2.61/5.18/27.97/58.86/117.00/1,020.78/2,331.99)
28.06.2010
Forge avg: 65,383,133 ISK (2.58/5.25/28.06/54.07/121.78/1,018.35/2,379.68)
Jita buy o: 62,406,920 ISK (2.52/4.49/27.95/52.89/117.08/978.31/2,172.20)
Jita sell o: 66,177,797 ISK (2.65/5.20/29.11/54.88/121.52/1,018.88/2,276.98)
29.06.2010
Forge avg: 65,005,036 ISK (2.58/5.20/28.03/53.60/121.42/1,011.96/2,309.74)
Jita buy o: 63,436,920 ISK (2.53/4.96/27.85/53.00/117.81/992.05/2,163.10)
Jita sell o: 64,616,291 ISK (2.58/5.04/28.33/53.63/121.06/1,016.99/2,195.99)
30.06.2010
Forge avg: 64,824,287 ISK (2.57/5.18/28.06/53.63/121.37/1,008.12/2,284.77)
Jita buy o: 61,000,187 ISK (2.43/4.81/26.41/50.52/111.00/980.04/2,105.00)
Jita sell o: 63,232,229 ISK (2.49/4.87/28.01/52.61/119.49/1,010.00/2,190.95)
01.07.2010
Forge avg: 64,259,461 ISK (2.54/5.11/28.01/53.17/119.23/1,007.27/2,259.36)
Jita buy o: 60,981,999 ISK (2.36/4.82/26.99/50.60/115.04/988.05/2,119.37)
Jita sell o: 62,518,558 ISK (2.44/4.84/27.41/51.98/118.74/1,006.88/2,246.74)
02.07.2010
Forge avg: 63,929,831 ISK (2.52/5.05/27.94/53.06/119.91/1,006.14/2,245.93)
Jita buy o: 61,132,939 ISK (2.43/4.73/26.55/50.30/114.01/979.29/2,176.06)
Jita sell o: 62,606,461 ISK (2.48/4.78/27.05/51.72/118.42/1,022.98/2,244.96)
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Vandoxarr
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Posted - 2010.07.03 00:29:00 -
[216]
Come on people, one of you 0.1 Bots in Jita churn this raw data into some kinda pretty xls graph that we can all goggle at.
Do eet
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.07.03 01:21:00 -
[217]
Originally by: Samroski
In retrospect I feel that the odds were stacked against you and that the terms were not entirely fair (for you). Strangely, hardly anyone bet against you. Having said that, my understanding of the market is still poor, and Eve is a strange game, which is not over yet :)
I think the odds actually slightly lean in Akita's favor a bit, but it is probably fairly close. Since it was a given that prices would drop there had to be some reason to make the bet and a generous spread was necessary to make it fair. Personally I would have done 50-60m instead of 55-65m as my range with anything between 50m-60m on August 1st considered a draw, but Akita made a good point that 'crash' really has to represent something major so his final betting terms were quite fair. (and more advantageous to make the bet)
It might look okay for the anti-akita folks now but I was sweating the first couple weeks! At least now it is interesting. I'm optimistic by 8/1 prices will be above 55m but it is going to be close. So much has happened the last month anything could have a significant impact.
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Tekota
legion industries ltd
Veni Vidi Vici Alliance
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Posted - 2010.07.03 01:29:00 -
[218]
Originally by: Vandoxarr
Come on people, one of you 0.1 Bots in Jita churn this raw data into some kinda pretty xls graph that we can all goggle at.
Do eet
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.03 15:23:00 -
[219]
Don't forget that starting July 9th Hulkageddon starts with prizes being offered to whoever kills the most hulks and/or mining ships in highsec.
While just a small blip in EVE, it's still something to consider as some people simply won't mine for the entire week.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.06 00:03:00 -
[220]
Then again, most people will keep on mining, completely oblivious to the fact there is such a thing as "Hulkageddon" (otherwise who would get killed in it anyway), and some will have to re-buy Hulks (or maybe even just Covetors) and either sell some unsold stocks of minerals/ore at a less attractive price, or mine that much more to recoup the losses.
Overall, previous Hulkageddons had only minimal impact on mineral prices overall, so it just might still be a wash either way. The largest fluctuations will most likely come from speculators trying to anticipate price shifts (and ending up switching money between them) rather than actual supply/demand action.
Oh well, who knows, a lot of things could happen, which only makes watching things unfold more exciting 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.07.06 00:44:00 -
[221]
Originally by: Akita T
The largest fluctuations will most likely come from speculators trying to anticipate price shifts (and ending up switching money between them) rather than actual supply/demand action.
On this topic I would love to know how much of the trade volume in PI products over the last few weeks has been between traders vying with each other as the markets shifted up and down. It could make for an interesting discussion in the QEN and seems like it would be relatively easy to gather data for. I don't know how the EVE item database works, but I imagine you'd be able to have a script cull out trades on PI items where the item was bought and sold in the same station without ever being shifted around.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.06 01:21:00 -
[222]
That doesn't really have to do with the topic at hand, but feel free to make a thread about it, could be interesting.
Still, problem is, when was the last time they took any serious suggestions from us about what to talk in the QENs ?
So it would most likely be ultimately pointless.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Tiruriku
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Posted - 2010.07.06 15:03:00 -
[223]
I don't expect hulkageddon to have a significant impact on this contest. Many macro's run in .7, .8, .9 systems where it is harder to gank and IMO that represents a majority of mineral supply. Additionally Hulkageddon 2 only killed around 1200 ships and that was when IER made those ships free. I wouldn't be surprised if some people were blowing up their own insured barges to win the hulkageddon prizes. Now that is no longer the case.
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mental maverick
Duty.
Duty. Private Security
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Posted - 2010.07.07 22:17:00 -
[224]
As Akita said the QEN seldom discuss anything really interesting or useful to the market community that isn't already common knowledge. Besides, if it turns out that there is a very small part of PI-mats traded coming from actual production, I doubt CCP would advertise that.
On topic then: last hulkageddon didn't have a noticeable effect on minerals but did have an effect on hulk prices. But take a look in C&P sections of the forums. The event is growing every time so who knows, this time around they might manage to make an impact on the mineral prices. Even if its just notable and very short lived, I'd say that that would be quite the accomplishment on the Hulkageddon participants part 
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.07.10 05:03:00 -
[225]
Hulkageddon 3 started. Let's see if Akita's predictions about it not (majorly) influencing mineral prices is correct.
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2010.07.10 11:38:00 -
[226]
Oddly enough, Hulkageddon may save Akita's butt. Speculation-driven price surges in EVE are followed by vicious supply-flood crashes -- doubly so in the mineral market where the producers have a reaction lag of about a week.
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.07.10 23:10:00 -
[227]
09.10.2010
Forge Avg: 62,685,861 ISK (2.49/4.85/28.38/53.30/122.24/984.84/2175.10)
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.07.13 18:50:00 -
[228]
@ tekota
I wasn't the guy asking for it but thanks for the graph.
I like tables too but seeing the graph's make it really easy to grok.
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Charles37
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Posted - 2010.07.13 20:28:00 -
[229]
09.13.2010
Forge Avg: 63,786,021 ISK (2.50/4.80/29.33/56.55/122.37/992.12/2281.09)
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.07.14 05:21:00 -
[230]
Originally by: Charles37
09.13.2010
Forge Avg: 63,786,021 ISK (2.50/4.80/29.33/56.55/122.37/992.12/2281.09)
Are you a fortune teller?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.14 10:09:00 -
[231]
Linkage
No idea if it's purely from speculators or actual Hulkageddon effect, but damn, not looking very good for me right now, eh ?
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Vasaczk
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Posted - 2010.07.14 21:54:00 -
[232]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 14/07/2010 13:28:17
Graphs linkage
No idea if it's purely from speculators or actual Hulkageddon effect, but damn, not looking very good for me right now, eh ?
Heh, I bet some speculators are kicking themselves now. Turns out with Hulk+Speculation it was actually a pretty sound bet >.<
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.07.14 23:42:00 -
[233]
Tomorrow is another judgement day, but I doubt the basket price will go over 65mil. We may just have to wait until August 1st.
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Acorn FB
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Posted - 2010.07.15 15:05:00 -
[234]
Hulkagedden and wars may have a much larger effect than in prior periods since the existance of IER caused a near infinite demand for minerals at the point blowing up your ships for insurance became profitable. This means there was always excess minerals on the market to what is actually required for actual game use. When the price exceeded the IER market basket price those minerals filled in the holes and kept the prices from rising to high. (and assuming people blew up fewer ships for a few weeks)
Now if mineral supply spikes downward (hulkageddon) or demand spikes up (big war), we may see larger price fluctations since there is no large amount of slack in the supply market.
During times of peace we should see a slow fall in prices as miners enter the market to replace the past wars shortfall, until the point some miners stop working and the market stabilizes. (macros will always provide some supply)
short version : Prices will find a level, but massive swings maybe in our future.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.16 13:51:00 -
[235]
Added Raven actual daily average trade price to the graph
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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James Tritanius
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Posted - 2010.07.16 15:18:00 -
[236]
So, Akita, what are your predictions for the next two weeks? Do you think the price will drop to under 55mil before August 1st?
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.16 17:46:00 -
[237]
I say it will keep going up until the 18th (end of Hulkageddon III) then start another sharp drop
Now... no idea if it will go back down to 55 mil in time 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.16 23:42:00 -
[238]
Edited by: Akita T on 16/07/2010 23:46:29
Hmm, looks like ship reprocessin' time again, just like in 20-22 June
P.S. Here's the latest XLS file tracking everything (plus graph) in case anybody is interested.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Kazuo Ishiguro
House of Marbles
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Posted - 2010.07.17 12:29:00 -
[239]
I bought another 60bn isk worth of assorted minerals over the last couple of days.
Just saying 
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34.4:1 mineral compression |
Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.07.17 12:46:00 -
[240]
Damn you, Salazar !
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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