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Lui Kai
Better Than You
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Posted - 2010.02.23 22:55:00 -
[1]
It's that time again - Linkage
Though apparently they're looking for ways to improve it in 2010. Maybe there's a hope of more than basic market statistics and lots of screenshots. ----------------
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Brock Nelson
Caldari Flux Technologies Inc SRS.
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Posted - 2010.02.24 02:13:00 -
[2]
Wow, didn't even touch insurance fraud once
Closed until further notice
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Riethe
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Posted - 2010.02.24 02:41:00 -
[3]
This thing is sweet, man.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.02.24 02:54:00 -
[4]
One wonders whether this guy actually plays the game or just looks at the database.
The economist wonders aloud "why pyerite and nocx prices are up, and that mega/zyd are down".
Something odd must have happened.
Like volume of mega/zyd increasing while low ends remain stable enabling insurance fraud to become popular.
As supply and price of trit/mex/isogen/mega/zyd is stable during insurance fraud something has to increase to balance out insurance basket price (Rokh is 115.5M). Pyerite and Nocx both increased heavily during November/December while fraud occured.
I personally wiped out Jita three times of Pyerite and once for Nocxium (both for a short period)while all other minerals were plentiful.
As the use of the sovereignty mining upgrades increase in use in 0.0 doesn't the economist think that there will therefore be a big increase in supply of mega/zyd (more Bistot/Arkonor = more mega/zyd). Volume of mega/zyd is up since Dominion and price is down (supply and demand).
Whenever high ends drop, low ends HAVE to rise due to insurance fraud.
Does the economist even understand that insurance holds the overall mineral value equal. When certain things drop in price other have to rise.
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Throckbane
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Posted - 2010.02.24 03:28:00 -
[5]
It's be hard to believe that the person writing this guide doesn't understand how pyerite went up due to insurance fraud.
I think CCP just doesn't want to admit in writing that ship insurance in Eve makes no sense.
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.02.24 03:45:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Throckbane
I think CCP just doesn't want to admit in writing that ship insurance in Eve makes no sense.
It's like playing Halo 3, but where the aim is to get shot because that increases your health. Yup indeedy, makes no sense at all.
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Maaltor
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Posted - 2010.02.24 04:46:00 -
[7]
Quote: Changes in the sovereignty system gave nullsec warfare a new spark, resulting in interesting conflicts with grand battles involving several hundred participants each time.
Is this a joke? I stopped reading when I reached this part, its obvious that the QEN is nothing more than a propaganda piece with no real content.
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Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
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Posted - 2010.02.24 05:12:00 -
[8]
I haven't read the last few issues of the QEN; I stopped once I realized that Dr. E's idea of a report was to have 50% of the pages consist of pictures, and the other 50% full of statistics and lots of words describing what the statistics show. There is little analysis and less indication that Dr. E has any idea of the forces behind EVE's economy.
You'd think he'd be curious as to how much isk insurance fraud had created, if nothing else.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2010.02.24 05:47:00 -
[9]
At the very least they could show some graphs of ships destroyed in the final quarter of the year.
What should be seen is a huge increase in the destruction of Tier 3 BS's.
Wouldn't this give a hint on some strange occurences.
This QEN just makes me believe that they put up some graphs that can be made automatically from the games databases, and look at it over a few beers and realise they don't have a clue.
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Aineko Macx
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Posted - 2010.02.24 08:20:00 -
[10]
Originally by: cosmoray One wonders whether this guy actually plays the game or just looks at the database.
In one of his video appearances the Dr. admitted not playing the game.
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Ambo
I've Got Nothing
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Posted - 2010.02.24 08:20:00 -
[11]
I remember how excited I was at the prospect of a real thorough analysis of eve's market systems from someone with complete access to the data.
With the first QEN, I thought: "ok, he's just getting up to speed it's kind of interesting but I'm sure more useful stuff is coming". QEN 2, nope, QEN 3, nope. This time I just skim-read it and, yup, same pointless statistics with the same almost total lack of analysis or understanding of game mechanics.
A lot of the information displayed is stuff that I would be able to see in-game.
Akita's pre-dominion moon-goo analysis was far more in-depth than anything these reports have ever done. --------------------------------------
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2010.02.24 08:29:00 -
[12]
The intended audience for QEN are not the MD tychoons, but the idiot across the road seeking for something flashy and easy. Something that smells of "EvE got a realistic economy, look at this colorful poster and convince your friends to subscribe".
The game is already scrutinized and exploited in every hole as is, figures if they actually posted usable analysis from the inside. - Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Liang Nuren
No Salvation War.Pigs.
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Posted - 2010.02.24 08:52:00 -
[13]
The first few econ dev blogs had some interesting stats about players themselves and actually showed the Amarr FOTM rising before it was utterly apparent. One thing that confuses me is that we went through such a period of deflation with such rampant insurance fraud. Insurance fraud should be an ISK faucet and I would have expected pretty rampant inflation this last blog.
-Liang -- Liang Nuren - Eve Forum ***** Extraordinaire |
Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2010.02.24 09:04:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Liang Nuren One thing that confuses me is that we went through such a period of deflation with such rampant insurance fraud. Insurance fraud should be an ISK faucet and I would have expected pretty rampant inflation this last blog.
prices for T1 equipment may be low, but T2 makes more than up for it.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.24 09:42:00 -
[15]
+1 on the QENs being mainly game-promotion tools designed for the non-players. Out of an entire QEN, it's seldom I walk away with more than a couple of bits of information I could care for, and more than my fair share of /facepalm moments. In that regard, the current QEN does not disappoint, it follows the exact same formula.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Liang Nuren
No Salvation War.Pigs.
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Posted - 2010.02.24 09:44:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Liang Nuren on 24/02/2010 09:45:28
Originally by: Cyaxares II prices for T1 equipment may be low, but T2 makes more than up for it.
T2 doesn't create ISK out of thin air though. I would have expected mass "abuse" of an ISK faucet to had a strong inflationary effect... but it didn't. It even went so far as to have deflation - which signals increased buying power of ISK almost across the board. There wasn't enough of an ISK faucet to keep the economy afloat with all the new players maybe (growth deflation)? Players with hoards of ISK left the game (frozen assets)? New sov mechanics are taking massive amounts of raw ISK out of the economy (ISK sink)?
Meh, the economy will balance itself out - but I did find it interesting anyway.
-Liang
Ed: Awesome, I'm the only person noob enough here to actually find interesting facts in the dev blogs. -- Liang Nuren - Eve Forum ***** Extraordinaire |
Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.02.24 09:54:00 -
[17]
The only REALLY interesting thing was the "trade volume per region" graph. Holy mother of Jita o.0 ! I mean, I knew it was big, and that it would likely be getting bigger in time, but never really expected it to be THAT big already.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting _
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Liang Nuren
No Salvation War.Pigs.
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Posted - 2010.02.24 09:56:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Liang Nuren on 24/02/2010 09:57:21
Originally by: Akita T The only REALLY interesting thing was the "trade volume per region" graph. Holy mother of Jita o.0 ! I mean, I knew it was big, and that it would likely be getting bigger in time, but never really expected it to be THAT big already.
Awww, I was hoping for a detailed explanation of why mass insurance fraud wasn't going to cause inflation. :-/
-Liang
Ed: I wasn't surprised at Jita btw. -- Liang Nuren - Eve Forum ***** Extraordinaire |
Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2010.02.24 10:02:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Cyaxares II on 24/02/2010 10:02:57
Originally by: Liang Nuren T2 doesn't create ISK out of thin air though. I would have expected mass "abuse" of an ISK faucet to had a strong inflationary effect... but it didn't. It even went so far as to have deflation - which signals increased buying power of ISK almost across the board. There wasn't enough of an ISK faucet to keep the economy afloat with all the new players maybe (growth deflation)?
I doubt that the effect of insurance fraud was large when compared to regular ISK sources ("normal" insurance payouts, mission rewards, bounties, ...).
edit: alternative explanation didn't really make sense - removed.
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RAW23
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Posted - 2010.02.24 10:16:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Cyaxares II Edited by: Cyaxares II on 24/02/2010 10:02:57
Originally by: Liang Nuren T2 doesn't create ISK out of thin air though. I would have expected mass "abuse" of an ISK faucet to had a strong inflationary effect... but it didn't. It even went so far as to have deflation - which signals increased buying power of ISK almost across the board. There wasn't enough of an ISK faucet to keep the economy afloat with all the new players maybe (growth deflation)?
I doubt that the effect of insurance fraud was large when compared to regular ISK sources ("normal" insurance payouts, mission rewards, bounties, ...).
edit: alternative explanation didn't really make sense - removed.
By his own account, Lui's operation by itself converted 30k Abaddons worth of mins into isk in three months, introducing 3.78 trillion isk into the economy. If my maths are correct, that is over 10mil for every account in the game from just the one operation. So, in one sense this does seem a lot but, on the other hand, it's only 3-4mil per account per month. And I doubt many people were operating on the same scale as Lui and Cosmo.
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Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2010.02.24 10:52:00 -
[21]
Originally by: RAW23 By his own account, Lui's operation by itself converted 30k Abaddons worth of mins into isk in three months, introducing 3.78 trillion isk into the economy. If my maths are correct, that is over 10mil for every account in the game from just the one operation. So, in one sense this does seem a lot but, on the other hand, it's only 3-4mil per account per month. And I doubt many people were operating on the same scale as Lui and Cosmo.
The big question is - where did this ISK go to...
Most of it went towards miners in the first step... (*) But what did the miners do with all the money?
(*) explanation: (1) Miner - 0 ISK, Lui 1.000.000.000 ISK (2) Miner 1.000.000.000 ISK, Lui 0 ISK (3) Miner 1.000.000.000 ISK, Lui 1.050.000.000 ISK
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Liang Nuren
No Salvation War.Pigs.
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Posted - 2010.02.24 10:58:00 -
[22]
Originally by: RAW23 By his own account, Lui's operation by itself converted 30k Abaddons worth of mins into isk in three months, introducing 3.78 trillion isk into the economy. If my maths are correct, that is over 10mil for every account in the game from just the one operation. So, in one sense this does seem a lot but, on the other hand, it's only 3-4mil per account per month. And I doubt many people were operating on the same scale as Lui and Cosmo.
So does this mean that any claims of insurance fraud causing inflation is strictly nonsense? What does this imply about the removal of insurance and the mineral market? It seems like the price of minerals would plummet to rock bottom if insurance was removed without giving the mineral market another subsidy. Should mining/production have a "guaranteed" income level by virtue of NPC buy orders?
Hmph. So many questions!
-Liang -- Liang Nuren - Eve Forum ***** Extraordinaire |
Samroski
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Posted - 2010.02.24 12:07:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha The intended audience for QEN are not the MD tychoons, but the idiot across the road seeking for something flashy and easy. Something that smells of "EvE got a realistic economy, look at this colorful poster and convince your friends to subscribe".
case in point being the scrapheap challenge discussion which is full of "wow"s :)
I agree with Akita: Jita trade volume is awe inspiring. Thinking of reactivating my alt there.
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InUrJita CheckinUrPrice
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Posted - 2010.02.24 14:32:00 -
[24]
Edited by: InUrJita CheckinUrPrice on 24/02/2010 14:33:04 Economic theory explains the continuing decline of low end items quite nicely. Price equals the marginal cost of producing an item in a competitive environment, and a competitive environment is, essentially, an environment with low barriers to entry.
The mineral market has no barriers to entry, and no recurring costs, so the long run price for minerals should trend to zero, or just above it, in the absence of price supports. With price supports, they will trend to the supported level -- admittedly with variation, since it is a mineral basket that receives support, not individual minerals.
For t1 producers, the costs are minerals, which are trending to zero (or their price support levels) blueprints, the costs of which are either large and one time (BPO) or recurring but small (BPC), and manufacturing slots, which are generally priced at the extremely cheap NPC level. Barriers to entry are entirely cost based, and competition is, again, perfectly competitive, so price should equal the marginal cost of production. Prices should therefore trend down to the cost level, with zero economic profit.
So now we've established that the long run price trends for t1 meta 0 goods are A) downward, and B) bounded by NPC charges. ISK inflation should therefore have little, if any, impact.
I think some people have trouble relating these facts to the isk inflation currently underway. The issue is that people seem to misidentify demand pull inflation as inflation in general, when in fact inflation can have many causes -- this ignorance is a side effect of the overly simplistic Keynesian models.
What we are experiencing, inflation wise, is the result of policy, not fundamental economic pressures. CCP's loose monetary policy, in the form of l4 missions and insurance fraud, generates huge quantities of isk that sit about, unconsumed, as there is nothing to consume with them. This isk has little effect on the economy at large because, unlike in real world economies, it generally is not lent out to others through the banking system. Mostly it sits unwanted in the wallets of players who have no use for it. The only times we will see this inflation in action are when new items enter the game, when players bid up the prices to astronomical heights with their piles of near worthless money. Once this demand pull inflation subsides, the price will tend to be bounded by the costs of acquisition.
In short, the money supply is continuously and drastically increasing, but much of the increase is consumed by accounts that have no use for it and thus it has little impact on the economy as a whole.
Now, as a caveat, I'd like to add that very little of this essay is directly applicable to the t2 market, which does function very much like a real market and which is indeed driven by supply and demand, or at least a rational analysis of costs. This has more to do with the higher barriers to entry, and the significant and regular costs of acquiring the necessary resources, than some sort of magic CCP voodoo. If barriers to entry and regular acquisition costs became a part of the t1 mineral market, we'd see t1 stabilize and come off life support -- in the form of NPC price controls.
edit: And the shc discussion is hardly full of "wows"
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Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2010.02.24 14:39:00 -
[25]
Originally by: InUrJita CheckinUrPrice so the long run price for minerals should trend to zero
Economic theory says mining should yield the same income as the most profitable activity in-game when controlling for the cost of equipment/education, disutility of labor and risk.
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Krans Hopeson
Hypercube Ventures
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Posted - 2010.02.24 15:11:00 -
[26]
Originally by: InUrJita CheckinUrPrice If barriers to entry and regular acquisition costs became a part of the t1 mineral market, we'd see t1 stabilize and come off life support -- in the form of NPC price controls.
...which leads to the request to CCP that we've been making for years:
Fix mining, please! And no, making it easier to produce minerals in vast volumes for no marginal cost makes things worse, not better! -- "The only stupid question is the one you don't ask." |
InUrJita CheckinUrPrice
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Posted - 2010.02.24 15:27:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Cyaxares II
Originally by: InUrJita CheckinUrPrice so the long run price for minerals should trend to zero
Economic theory says mining should yield the same income as the most profitable activity in-game when controlling for the cost of equipment/education, disutility of labor and risk.
If you reread my post, you'll see what economic theory has to say on the matter.
As to your post, are you seriously asserting that there is some universal value assigned to _time_? Or are you instead asserting that mining is the only method of acquiring minerals?
Rubbish either way. Time has a variable value, and minerals are, in addition to mining, the byproduct of ratting and mission running -- both activities that would continue to supply minerals even were minerals at negligible prices because they are in and of themselves profitable, and the minerals provide additional, "unexpected" profit rather than acting as its mainstay.
Maybe I should have used more graphs and pictures. Nobody trusts economists that don't use graphs and pictures =(
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Roemy Schneider
Vanishing Point.
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Posted - 2010.02.24 16:10:00 -
[28]
oh look... fountain is in the north and there's three(!) impass'es
all confidence/credibility went out the window right then and there - if there was any left after the screwed up moon goo reshuffle. - putting the gist back into logistics |
Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2010.02.24 16:28:00 -
[29]
Originally by: InUrJita CheckinUrPrice Rubbish either way. Time has a variable value, and minerals are, in addition to mining, the byproduct of ratting and mission running -- both activities that would continue to supply minerals even were minerals at negligible prices because they are in and of themselves profitable, and the minerals provide additional, "unexpected" profit rather than acting as its mainstay.
Opportunity cost, let me introduce InUrJita, InUrJita this is opportunity cost.
opportunity cost + compensating wage differentials = my post above
PS: standard economic theory doesn't know anything like " "unexpected" profit".
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2010.02.24 16:39:00 -
[30]
Well there is a list of 25 very nice stocks that are worth trading in the QEN. As much as it pains me to share the information, anyone who is trading should go and read it
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