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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.11.11 22:59:00 -
[1]
Not going to talk about moon mining as Akita has that well in hand.
The next items that will get hit are minerals and Ice products.
General effects (Discuss to your hearts content):
1. POS's are removed as not required for SOV - Ice products go down in price 2. Alliance space becomes expensive - Space rental is more important - 0.0 mining becomes more important 3. If Ice products go down - Increase mining in high sec of Veld/Pyrox/plag - effect unsure 4. Cap producers sitting pat waiting for Dominion - maybe big bump in Cap production sucking up minerals
If 0.0 mining increases that means more Mega and Zyd hit the market dropping prices.
Coming to the main point. After Dominion the mineral basket (overall) will not change, but the prices within that basket have to.
Which goes up : Trit or Mex? Or Both?
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Breaker77
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.11.11 23:01:00 -
[2]
Originally by: cosmoray Which goes up : Trit or Mex? Or Both?
I'm going to say trit. Who in their right minds mines veldspar in 0.0??
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Vasta Magna
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Posted - 2009.11.11 23:09:00 -
[3]
I think #4 is fairly safe reasoning, though to some extent I think it's already picking up after a general pause from Dominion uncertainty and a necessary contraction following an influx of new businesses a while back.
For my vote, Trit over Mex but Mex is under pressure too.
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Phoebe Halliwel
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Posted - 2009.11.11 23:24:00 -
[4]
Edited by: Phoebe Halliwel on 11/11/2009 23:25:27
Originally by: cosmoray 1. POS's are removed as not required for SOV - Ice products go down in price 2. Alliance space becomes expensive - Space rental is more important - 0.0 mining becomes more important 3. If Ice products go down
I know SOV holding POS's will come down, but is there a posibility that Alliances will spam more moon mining towers in their space to utilise systems fully?
Edit, oops sorry, I don't want to derail this into a moon mining debate, just wondered if that assumption was generally accepted still.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.11 23:29:00 -
[5]
Hm, what also came to my mind the other day:
If you look at the one year graph for trit, you notice it is usually low in summer and high in winter/spring, thus the current situation might be a good opportunity to speculate on it rising again. I know i did this, and i know others did. The question that arises how heavily it was speculated upon. And will the liquidation of this stock have an influence once people start selling it.
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Sophie Daigneau
CAPITAL Assistance in Destruction Society GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.11 23:45:00 -
[6]
Crokite and Bistot are already fairly abundant in 0.0, so I don't see zydrine moving too severely. Arkonor however is very restricted in where it can be found. Someone with more time can cross-check this, but there are many regions without any access or very little access. The abundance of mining sites will open up a huge new supply of megacyte, and the price of that will crash hard. It'll take a few months for production to ramp up, so you've got plenty of time to dump stock.
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Breaker77
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.11.12 00:01:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Sophie Daigneau Crokite and Bistot are already fairly abundant in 0.0, so I don't see zydrine moving too severely. Arkonor however is very restricted in where it can be found. Someone with more time can cross-check this, but there are many regions without any access or very little access. The abundance of mining sites will open up a huge new supply of megacyte, and the price of that will crash hard. It'll take a few months for production to ramp up, so you've got plenty of time to dump stock.
There is more than enough Arkonor even in class 1 wormholes that is already being mined. For the corps that have a POS in the higher classes of wormholes some of them have built Rorquals there and ship of lots of compressed Ark.
Also with the addition of upgrades, Ark will be found in the grav sites the upgrades provide.
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.11.12 00:08:00 -
[8]
My predictions, such as they are, and I'm not trading based on them so use with caution: 1. Ice products down (but maybe only certain isotopes used in death stars) 2. Trit down as high sec miners move away from ice. 3. Megacyte down based on more 0.0 mining 4. All other minerals down based on increased loot refining from 0.0 ratting and plexes 5. Insurance business booms (and I don't mean Hexxx's) as a bigger isk source 6. New isk sink for sov structures makes war too expensive 7. cap ship prices sink even more 8. Zydrine might get a boost from blowing up battleships for insurance.
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Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
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Posted - 2009.11.12 00:52:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Mahke on 12/11/2009 00:54:31 Edited by: Mahke on 12/11/2009 00:53:16 going to spill the beans on this since I'm already as invested as I want to get:
It's possible to make a play on minerals with a minimum profit safety net.
Many ships are possible to build with insurance fraud profits. Buy minerals in the exact combination of one of those ships provides an absolutely safe way to speculate on a increase in the mineral basket: if you're wrong, you can always just build the darn ships and sell them to someone to insurance fraud (or do it yourself) for profit on original investment.
edit: okay, I have something of an ulterior motive here: since I AM already invested in this if other people get in strongly enough to shift the mineral basket up I can get out without the tedium of actually doing the insurance frauding .
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.11.12 01:28:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Mahke It's possible to make a play on minerals with a minimum profit safety net.
I like it.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.11.12 02:47:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Claire Voyant My predictions, such as they are, and I'm not trading based on them so use with caution: 1. Ice products down (but maybe only certain isotopes used in death stars) 2. Trit down as high sec miners move away from ice. 3. Megacyte down based on more 0.0 mining 4. All other minerals down based on increased loot refining from 0.0 ratting and plexes 5. Insurance business booms (and I don't mean Hexxx's) as a bigger isk source 6. New isk sink for sov structures makes war too expensive 7. cap ship prices sink even more 8. Zydrine might get a boost from blowing up battleships for insurance.
Minerals can't all go down.
The mineral basket adjusts too quickly to stay out of whack for long. Days at the max as people buy up ALL the minerals for either manufacture (insurance) or the rebound in price.
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Vasta Magna
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Posted - 2009.11.12 03:26:00 -
[12]
I agree with predictions that high-ends will take a beating from 0.0 mining upgrades. I've been negative on Megacyte and Zydrine ever since wormholes came out, but they have surprised me a little with their resilience.
I'll set down a prediction so I can come back and mock myself later. 30 days after patch:
Trit - Up 20%+ Pyerite - Up Mex - Up Iso - ? Nocx - ? Zyd - Down 5-10% Mega - Down 10-15%
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.11.12 03:41:00 -
[13]
Originally by: cosmoray Minerals can't all go down.
The mineral basket adjusts too quickly to stay out of whack for long. Days at the max as people buy up ALL the minerals for either manufacture (insurance) or the rebound in price.
I am aware of that, but I have said elsewhere that I expect such severe pressure on the mineral basket, that people will get bored with fraud, BPOs will be worked to capacity, and the basket will get pushed to new lows. Not ridiculous lows, but certainly higher profits for fraud, at least for people building from BPOs.
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Cyntia Lelaert
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Posted - 2009.11.12 04:34:00 -
[14]
FFS, you don't need to mine trit in 0.0. Ratting about an hour or two a day had me generate tens of millions of units of trit and pye as hauler spawns every other day, over and above an Iteron III full of battleship loot over the same time period. That account is expired but I think I still have a few hundred million units of spare lowends in various stations.
If people have to rat 0.0 more to pay for the new sov sinks the mountains of minerals will far outstrip the need to mine.
My prediction? Nocx will be the winner. Everything else loses. Rat loot is way too heavy on pye and mex overall, but is shortest on nocx.
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Johanna Outeston
Gallente Zodiark L.L.C.
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Posted - 2009.11.12 04:57:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: cosmoray Which goes up : Trit or Mex? Or Both?
I'm going to say trit. Who in their right minds mines veldspar in 0.0??
Chribba
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2009.11.12 06:02:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Cyntia Lelaert My prediction? Nocx will be the winner. Everything else loses.
I might as well jump in the pool. I say Zydrine is the winner, and everything else loses.
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Thoraemond
Minmatar Far Ranger
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Posted - 2009.11.12 07:32:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Vasta Magna I agree with predictions that high-ends will take a beating from 0.0 mining upgrades. I've been negative on Megacyte and Zydrine ever since wormholes came out, but they have surprised me a little with their resilience.
I'll set down a prediction so I can come back and mock myself later. 30 days after patch:
Trit - Up 20%+ Pyerite - Up Mex - Up Iso - ? Nocx - ? Zyd - Down 5-10% Mega - Down 10-15%
It has been hypothesized that CCP takes steps to nudge mineral prices towards their base prices [1]. If this is true, and if Dominion yields success towards this objective, then the following changes might be observed:
Prices (ISK per unit) [2] Base Current Change (Current to Base) Trit : 2.00 2.76 -0.76 -28 % Pyer : 8.00 4.44 +3.56 +80 % Mexa : 32.00 28.26 +3.74 +13 % Isog : 128.00 51.90 +76.10 +147 % Nocx : 512.00 74.94 +437.06 +583 % Zydr : 2048.00 1590.00 +458.00 +29 % Mega : 8192.00 3725.00 +4467.00 +120 % This might suggest that Nocxium has the most upside potential, followed by Isogen and Megacyte.
Footnotes:
[1] Past initiatives such as the re-formulation of the contents of some Drone drops, and the more recent increase in Veldspar quantities are consistent with this theory, but I'm not aware of any recent confirmation of this as a goal.
[2] Source: current prices from the most recent daily average reported in the 'Item History XML' for each mineral on eve-metrics.com (e.g., the one for Isogen). [3]
[3] This usage is not intended as an endorsement of eve-metrics.com. á á
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising IT Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.12 09:23:00 -
[18]
I don't see this hugely massive drop in ice. I do see a massive speculation hitting the first Dominion days. But part of the Dominion mechanics is about:
1) nerfing dispro moons 2) buffing other moons 3) more money sinks, to entice people milking 2 and thus keeping the requirement for ice up. What could be severely impacted is the isotopes, once a min maxed POS for the "new" tasks has been found.
Moreover I don't understand why someone would mine veldspar in 0.0.
The mindset of the 0.0 players I know is "PvP, earning ISK to sustain PvP as an annoying task to do quick". To stare at some rock for hours is not their mettle. All the PvPers I know, "gracefully degrade" into combat PvE missions when they need money, ie they fire up their hi sec L4 farmer alt and use it.
Ratting in 0.0 brings trit anyway, and it's possible that corps could do a weekly "mining corp op" to pad the missing minerals up.
The new expansion is also a nerf to hugenormous capital fleets (in case it succeeds at fragmenting the 0.0 alliances or make new ones to go there - unlikey, but who knows) and this would also mean less requirement for tritanium.
Basically, today 0.0 people don't bother mining already, giving them more stuff to not mine will probably result in some more cloak hulk being killed by roaming gangs and little more.
- Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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Kanatta Jing
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Posted - 2009.11.12 09:56:00 -
[19]
Jump Freighters bring stuff down to 0.0 on a regular basis. Going back up they should ideally be carrying things as well, and there are only so many meta 2-4 mods looted and moon minerals mined in a month.
Unloading Megacyte and Zydrine from all those grav sites makes sense.
And a Hulk a Grav site is a lot safer then a Hulk in a belt...
Though if your worried about getting ganked it should be a Covetor.
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Mangold
Einherjar Rising Cry Havoc.
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Posted - 2009.11.12 14:50:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Thoraemond It has been hypothesized that CCP takes steps to nudge mineral prices towards their base prices [1 . If this is true, and if Dominion yields success towards this objective, then the following changes might be observed:
Prices (ISK per unit) [2] Base Current Change (Current to Base) Trit : 2.00 2.76 -0.76 -28 % Pyer : 8.00 4.44 +3.56 +80 % Mexa : 32.00 28.26 +3.74 +13 % Isog : 128.00 51.90 +76.10 +147 % Nocx : 512.00 74.94 +437.06 +583 % Zydr : 2048.00 1590.00 +458.00 +29 % Mega : 8192.00 3725.00 +4467.00 +120 % This might suggest that Nocxium has the most upside potential, followed by Isogen and Megacyte.
Footnotes:
[1] Past initiatives such as the re-formulation of the contents of some Drone drops, and the more recent increase in Veldspar quantities are consistent with this theory, but I'm not aware of any recent confirmation of this as a goal.
[2] Source: current prices from the most recent daily average reported in the 'Item History XML' for each mineral on eve-metrics.com (e.g., the one for Isogen). [3]
[3] This usage is not intended as an endorsement of eve-metrics.com.
The old base price wasn't based on 2. Tritanium used to be 1 isk.
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Breaker77
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.11.12 16:00:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Thoraemond It has been hypothesized that CCP takes steps to nudge mineral prices towards their base prices [1]. If this is true, and if Dominion yields success towards this objective, then the following changes might be observed:
The high ends will never get that high again due to vast amounts of those in WH space that is much safer than 0.0 space. Even Nox won't explode like that. Pyroxeres is fairly common in highsec and it contains Nox although in small amounts. Plus the infrastructure upgrades that provide a constant supply of grav sites. Even Omber is common as dirt in highsec.
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cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.11.12 16:06:00 -
[22]
At some point minerals become too cheap though. When exploding ships becomes very profitable mineral prices rebound quickly, and huge quantities get used up.
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Breaker77
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.11.12 16:11:00 -
[23]
Oh oh oh!!
What about the 40% reduction in materials for Moms??
Originally by: CCP Nozh Hey,
The changes on Singularity now, are intentional. The drone control units are however broken at the moment, and are being fixed.
New stats for "Compact Citadel Torpedoes" (launched by fighter bombers):
Explosion Radius: 3500 Explosion Velocity: 45 Damage Reduction Factor: 6.5 (magic number) Damage: 3600
Super carrier build cost, reduced by 40%. Estimated build cost around 5-6bn.
What we want to create is an anti-capital ship/role, which is more effective than dreadnaughts against moving targets. They can currently reach 7200 DPS (9000 DPS on the Nyx), provided they are fitted for damage and are being supported by fellow pilots. To put this into perspective, the old motherships used to deal 2000 DPS, 2500 DPS (3125 DPS on the Nyx) with drone control units, additionally they've received a huge hit-point boost. The main advantages everyone seems to be overlooking is that Super carriers don't need to commit to a battle like Dreadnaughts nor do they have to be stationary while dealing damage, and of course the fact that they're immune to Electronic Warfare.
By fitting drone control units, pilots are increasing their damage potential greatly while sacrificing survivability. It becomes a hard choice, but being capital ships, they should reach their maximum potential when working together as a team.
-Nozh
That is if anyone still uses them with the massive nerfbat heading their way.
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Krathos Morpheus
Legion Infernal
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Posted - 2009.11.12 16:22:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha The new expansion is also a nerf to hugenormous capital fleets (in case it succeeds at fragmenting the 0.0 alliances or make new ones to go there - unlikey, but who knows) and this would also mean less requirement for tritanium.
The tritanium price is hugely based on the capital tritanium requirements afaik, so it will go up if/when the capital construction that is halted right now resumes it's work, and trit will always unbalance the mineral basket unless that is changed. What is that nerf to big capital fleets you see? I didn't noticed that only nerf I've seen is to .
Unless I've missed some last notice, there is not going to be fragmentation of alliances because the price on sovereignty is finally not increasing with the number of systems held. And frankly I don't see lots of small empire alliances moving to 0.0 because actual alliances would crush them just for the fun of it, even if they are not taking the sov. If empire alliances move there will be under the umbrella of the already stablished alliances. I believe that will happen more with the development of treaties, although it could happen earlier thanks to system development not based on alliance membership. _+_ "It is the unofficial force ù the Jita irregulars. "
EVEwatch Sidebar soon |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.11.12 16:32:00 -
[25]
I think POS Fuel is going to go down, even if alliances spam POSES in upgraded systems you have to think most "core" systems for alliances are already super heavy in POSES to hold SOV and prevent the old, enemy alliance spamming POSES over night. So I don't think they are going to see a lot of changes in those systems at least in the terms of POS Fuel. However the changes WILL come for all the systems around the core, the ones that where used to hold SOV and collect constellation SOV. Any real non-industrial POS will likely come down, and there are a LOT of those. Industry POSES are different. Logistics dictates that the further way from the "core" the more difficult it is to support. We already know alliances are probably not going to pay heavy fees to commit SOV to a system which has say one good moon in it. Logic says systems with one good moon in them ten jumps away from the "core" else is not going to see SOV. While I have every believe the corp will keep that moon, it will cost more the fuel, which then brings in the question "Is it worth it"? Depends on the size of the alliance and their wealth, a more poor alliance will keep it for sure, a wealthy alliance will say "Screw it, we got it local save the logistics.
I think alliances are going to rent out space by the masses, lets fact it, the new SOV demands it. Large member alliances will not need to rent out space, but smaller ones will for sure rent out space. I predict a more staggered staged rental system as well, such as an outpost which not the most desirable become "The place to rent" while alliances contract into smaller groups. Look at Razor for example - 13 outposts which means 13 systems, yet their population is only 1871 which means you have 144 people per outpost. Across 24 hours, lets divide that by 4 for 6 hours sets that comes to 36 per system. That will not be upgraded a lot. Not compared to Morsus Mihi which hold 16 outposts, and have 2970 Members that's an average of 186 per system or 47 every 6 hours. (Goon's have 34 Outposts and have 5013 which puts them at 148, just Razor but still lower then say MM)
There is no doubt alliances will consolidate to upgrade the systems, then from that point they will re-expand. While they are consolidating they will most likely not care about some outposts, some of the far reaching ones. These will no doubt become Renter systems, at least until they upgrade the system enough to have a Cyno Jammer and Generator for easy travel.
High-Sec Ore, not going to move much until more people start to see all the available space out in 0.0 with no Sov or outpost and they move on out. What they need to realize is do it right at the start, when the alliances are going around with their own stuff.
Cap Production - I predict an increase in Carriers, just normal carriers. In another thread I say why but it has to do with Sov changes. The need to have massive blob fleets of battleships WILL go down, this allows the once Battleship blob to becomes a Cap ship blob. Carriers and Dreads go up in demand. Motherships for sure as they becomes the bomber platforms, Titan's not so much, while they will be important for moving fleets, if the fleets are nothing but cap ships that can all jump, a Titan starts to become less needed. It turns into the "Boss" when attacking outposts. Yes, this one of the reasons I dumped my T4U stock, along with other reasons.
Mega and Zyd distend to be down in price, if everything goes according to CCP's plan you'll see more people out in 0.0, every single one of them mining. If they don't go to CCP's plan we'll STILL see an increase in supply because.... well Alliances will have renters, and LOTS of them. Either way it's headed for the chop in price. It will probably level out at about ever so slightly above Insurance Faud, not because Insurance is keeping it up it'll be because profits from mining will be so low supply will stifle in high sec.
That's your NEW opinion and I'm SencneS :)
Amarr for Life |
cosmoray
Bella Vista Holdings Corp
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Posted - 2009.11.12 16:52:00 -
[26]
Titans and Moms massive nerf.
Titan copying will be returning under 3% per month with current prices and future trends. Titan copying, Mom BPC packages is a business I wouldn't want to be in.
I don't think overall change in mineral supply due to mom changes as their will be a huge pickup in carrier production.
Down on Titans4U, up on Atima industries.
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Lilkal
Lone Star Joint Venture Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.11.12 21:03:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: cosmoray Which goes up : Trit or Mex? Or Both?
I'm going to say trit. Who in their right minds mines veldspar in 0.0??
One thing I am not clear about is whether you will have to clear the static belts to qualify for hidden belts. Also, I have not seen anything from the Dev's that says whether the hidden belts will have better ore (Merc and Ark) than is in the static belts.
If you have to mine veld and other low ends to qualify for the hidden belts I can see veld staying where it is and the costs of the mods that get bought in bulk to take compressed veld out to 0.0 in bulk tanking.
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.12 22:07:00 -
[28]
Edited by: Treji on 12/11/2009 22:08:05 I've also seen no mention of the belt distribution post-Dominion, or the effects of 'upgrades' on a system in terms of ores available. Rest assured that for many alliances, the focus won't be on improving belts!
You also strangely leave Morphite out of any calculations. Its already pretty limited on markets and widely used. Dominion changes to BPO, from what I have explored, keep morphite at the same levels as now.
I am expecting a shrinkage in availability post-Dominion, and hence a surge in price.
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Breaker77
Gallente
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Posted - 2009.11.12 22:56:00 -
[29]
Edited by: Breaker77 on 12/11/2009 22:56:31
Originally by: Treji I am expecting a shrinkage in availability post-Dominion, and hence a surge in price.
Mercoxit is found in decent quanitites in WH space, nothing like 2 or 3 20k unit roids in a grav site.
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Drab Cane
Carbenadium Industries
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Posted - 2009.11.12 23:22:00 -
[30]
I expect to see ice / ice products drop moderately in price, but I don't expect to see a lot of miners switch from ice to minerals.
The recent uptick in ice pricing seems more due to lower supply than higher demand (especially after Unholy Rage). If demand for ice eases up, it will simply come in line with the current supply.
Disclaimer: I don't have any hard stats to show, just my perception after watching a few regions. -----------------------------------------------
- Who Dares, Wins
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